Tourney Seed Projection

[D-West & PO-Z]

Everyone feeling good for a 2 seed still? I am but I am more nervous than I otherwise was.

One seeds: Nova, KU, Mich St, UVA (or UNC)

Two seeds: Oregon, UNC (or UVA), Xavier, OU

thoughts? Did West Virginia's win over OU knock OU off the 2 line? Did it knock us off? Does West Virginia have to beat KU to get to the 2 line?

Please reassure me we are a 2 seed.


I'd love to be a 2 seed in the south with UVA as the 1 seed.

[Xavier Nation]

Ok, it's time for the big dance. I was thinking regardless of the outcome of the SH game that X would be a 2 seed. Now, with West Virginia beating Oklahoma, I have to think they will jump X. So, I ask, what seed are we thinking? Also, where do we see X playing? St. Louis seems like it will certainly be the spot, but you never know.

My Prediction
Seed: 3
Location: St. Louis

Let's put the L behind us and go get a Final Four banner!

[bigdiggins]

If the committee watched the game 11 in Dayton vs Wichita st. If they only look at the final score 3 seed but we won't get any love on the location.

[Masterofreality]

Still 7 in RPI even after the loss. Still say a 2 seed.

[xukeith]

I say a 2 seed. Selection committee looks at overall season. X has good resume with quality wins and record over NCAA tournament teams.
1 seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, (UNC/Michigan St)
2 seeds: UNC/Mich St., XU, Oregon, Utah/Oklahoma

[D-West & PO-Z]

Man if that Buddy Hield shot counted we would be all but locked up as a 2 seed. It wil be interesting to see what happens with WVU.

Lets pray KU beats WVU.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I say a 2 seed. Selection committee looks at overall season. X has good resume with quality wins and record over NCAA tournament teams.
1 seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, (UNC/Michigan St)
2 seeds: UNC/Mich St., XU, Oregon, Utah/Oregon

You put Oregon twice. Did you mean OU?

Do u think WVU has no chance for 2 unless they beat KU? If they beat KU they have to move up to 2 seed.

[Section 200]

If the committee watched the game 11 in Dayton vs Wichita st. If they only look at the final score 3 seed but we won't get any love on the location.

You must drinking to really good stuff tonight!

[GIMMFD]

You put Oregon twice. Did you mean OU?

Do u think WVU has no chance for 2 unless they beat KU? If they beat KU they have to move up to 2 seed.

I could see WVU beating Kansas kicking Oregon off rather than us to be honest...

[XMuskieFTW]

I'm 60% sold on a 2 seed. If we are a 3, I think we're the best 3. Probably puts us in the midwest with kansas and the worst 2 though. Either way, we are probably the 2 or 3 in the midwest with kansas right?

[xukeith]

Yes Oklahoma! Ooops

[markchal]

3. Very disappointing when you consider where we were after beating Nova. Don't love the way we're heading into the tourney.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm 60% sold on a 2 seed. If we are a 3, I think we're the best 3. Probably puts us in the midwest with kansas and the worst 2 though. Either way, we are probably the 2 or 3 in the midwest with kansas right?

I hope the south. I dont think they do the best 1 worst 2 best 3 thing. That's not a bracketing rule I dont think.

[xukeith]

2 seed in Midwest with Kansas or 3 seed out West with last #1 seed(whoever that is, Oregon, Oklahoma, North Carolina, )

[D-West & PO-Z]

3. Very disappointing when you consider where we were after beating Nova. Don't love the way we're heading into the tourney.

Who do you have as 2's?

[GIMMFD]

I hope the south. I dont think they do the best 1 worst 2 best 3 thing. That's not a bracketing rule I dont think.

Yeah as I said in live chat, UVA is the team we could clip the easiest, want to avoid UNC or Kansas at all possible costs. But honestly, we need to tighten up up some things. Let's find out what happens on Sunday and make the most of it.

[xavbball]

Right now I think we're hanging onto a 2 seed, but not by much. A WVU win tomorrow and you can book us as a 3 seed.

[markchal]

Yeah I think WVU takes our spot. Don't think it's right necessarily but getting blown out twice by an unranked team twice in our last four games isn't the way to impress voters into keeping us at 2.

[XMuskieFTW]

I hope the south. I dont think they do the best 1 worst 2 best 3 thing. That's not a bracketing rule I dont think.

I feel like it's probably a combination of that and keeping teams regionally. I have tried to look this up but never got clarification. I think they'd bump us a spot or so to keep us regionally, but I don't think they'd put us with the worst 1 seed if we were the worst 2 just to keep it regionally.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I feel like it's probably a combination of that and keeping teams regionally. I have tried to look this up but never got clarification. I think they'd bump us a spot or so to keep us regionally, but I don't think they'd put us with the worst 1 seed if we were the worst 2 just to keep it regionally.

Louisville is closest to us for 2nd weekend and that is in south region. Hope they send us there.

[D-West & PO-Z]

WVU doesnt have any "bad losses" but they do have 7 of them and 8 if they lose to KU. It will be interesting for sure.

[XMuskieFTW]

Louisville is closest to us for 2nd weekend and that is in south region. Hope they send us there.

Yea that would be ideal. As long as the matchup is right. I'd be fine with playing in Somalia if we got the right matchups.

[markchal]

I feel like we've had some great luck with higher teams getting upset in past tournaments that we're bound to have the luck catch up to us. I have a sinking feeling we're gonna get a tough draw, but it's time to see what this team is made of. Weird that were this late in the year and still searching for consistent effort and energy.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I feel like we've had some great luck with higher teams getting upset in past tournaments that we're bound to have the luck catch up to us. I have a sinking feeling we're gonna get a tough draw, but it's time to see what this team is made of. Weird that were this late in the year and still searching for consistent effort and energy.

Really? I dont think so. We havent won a conference tourney in ages even when we were supposed to. Sucks we lost but I am not concerned with it as it relates to our tourney success.

As much as it the loss sucked I did like seeing our guys didnt quit. No moral victory or anything like that but they didnt pack it in.

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi dropped us to a 3 seed in the South. Moved WVU up to 2 seed.

[Newswired]

I'll take that. It's a good draw. But remember, Lunardi is not always accurate on the seed lines.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'll take that. It's a good draw. But remember, Lunardi is not always accurate on the seed lines.

Yes, I know. Some of these guys have wayy different seedings for the same teams.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Joe Donuts is a nerd. As long as X is in the south bracket we are final 4 bound.

[Xavier Nation]

I'll take that. It's a good draw. But remember, Lunardi is not always accurate on the seed lines.

Man, that would be an awesome draw. 3 seed in the south is much better than a two seed in the Midwest. Avoid Kansas, play in Louisville.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Not only that but as a 3 seed you have a chance to possibly play a 11 seed in the second game. A 1 seed will have to,play 8/9 and a 2 will have to,play a 7/10. Give me a 3 seed in the south with an Iowa Matchup in the second round. This loss sucks but the ultimate goal to win it all and a 3 seed might be X best chance.

[XUFan09]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi dropped us to a 3 seed in the South. Moved WVU up to 2 seed.

Lunardi has consistently rated Xavier a little low and UNC a bit high (even before they picked up some nice wins). I'm going to be curious to see how right he is.

[markchal]

Really? I dont think so. We havent won a conference tourney in ages even when we were supposed to. Sucks we lost but I am not concerned with it as it relates to our tourney success.

As much as it the loss sucked I did like seeing our guys didnt quit. No moral victory or anything like that but they didnt pack it in.

I meant in the real tourney. Our last two s16s had some favorable dominoes fall our way.

[GetUp5]

27-5
5th in RPI
53 SOS
9-3 vs top 50
8-3 on road
4-0 on neutral

I'm pretty confident the committee won't overreact to the conference tourneys like the media does. Judging by our total body of work, we are a 2 seed. You could actually make a case for a 1 seed with the top 50 record and the 12-3 record away from home.

We're in a good spot. Totally agree that being in STL and the south bracket w/ a favorable draw is most important though.

[THill42]

Not only that but as a 3 seed you have a chance to possibly play a 11 seed in the second game. A 1 seed will have to,play 8/9 and a 2 will have to,play a 7/10. Give me a 3 seed in the south with an Iowa Matchup in the second round. This loss sucks but the ultimate goal to win it all and a 3 seed might be X best chance.

I can't say that I agree with any of this.

[GoMuskies]

I can't say that I agree with any of this.

That's because you're apparently not stupid.

[nasdadjr]

On to the dance. Xavier showed what will be its downfall though. Not being a negative person here just pointing out what I see as weakness.

1. NBA level talent. We have a good squad but youth and lack of a real NBA guy is gonna hurt when we face a real NBA prospect in the later rounds. We just don't have a guy who can stop or score with an NBA guy when that moment comes.

2. Bigs get matched. When we face a team as big and physical as us we get crushed on the boards. Don't know why it's just the trend.

3. Temper. I think we let emotions get the best of us and it negatively flows to the whole team. To me this is more a product of youth than anything else.

Great season here is my ending predictions

1. Final four if in a region with Virginia, Utah, Miami, West Virginia and/ or Oklahoma. Great match ups and they can't match us inside

2. 2nd weekend exit of paired with Purdue, MSU, Kansas, UNC, Cal. These teams are our worst match up for various reasons but all of these teams are long and hit the boards hard.

3. I can't envision a 1st weekend exit unless Myles had another horrific game.

As always the tournament is about match ups. These are what I feel will be our best and worst man for man match ups. Obviously there are more teams I could discuss match up wise like Utah, notre dame, and so on but won't do that now. Thoughts.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Being a 3 seed isn't bad at all. It's possible we could end up playing an 11 seed. How do you think X got to the sweet 16 a couple of times recently? Of course I rather be a 1 or a 2 seed but being a 3 seed in the south region could set Xavier up for a final four run whereas a 2 seed in the Midwest could set Xavier up for an early packing run.

[sgarcia]

Everyone feeling good for a 2 seed still? I am but I am more nervous than I otherwise was.

One seeds: Nova, KU, Mich St, UVA (or UNC)

Two seeds: Oregon, UNC (or UVA), Xavier, OU

thoughts? Did West Virginia's win over OU knock OU off the 2 line? Did it knock us off? Does West Virginia have to beat KU to get to the 2 line?

Please reassure me we are a 2 seed.


I'd love to be a 2 seed in the south with UVA as the 1 seed.

Seeing how they've kept OU very high the entire year I believe we drop to a 3.

[Xville]

I think we are a 3...more important is region and who else is in it more than being a 2 over a 3

[xavierj]

I think we are a 3...more important is region and who else is in it more than being a 2 over a 3

Yep they will most likely be a 3, which would be fine with me as long as they get to go to Louisville. They have a 2 seed profile but if they get a 2 its probably out West, which would suck.

[vee4xu]

To me there are two metrics that comes into play. First, season's body of work. In this category, Xavier is stellar and worthy of a #2 seed. Second, last 10 games. This is where X is falling short and will likely cost them that #2 seed. The defense has been giving up points in gobs and when X plays away from Cintas, their record isn't good. Good think they rallied at Wake or else that would be a black mark against X. I love the season that X has had, but there's no hiding the fact that they are not the team they were the first 10 games. This is the same fact the selection committee sees.

[X-band '01]

Given the volume of other teams' wins against potential protected seeds, it's not a stretch to suggest that Xavier would be the highest 3 seed. I definitely think Kansas has to win tonight if Xavier still wants to get a 2, though. With Oregon and Utah playing for the Pac-12 championship, it's a given that the champ finishes ahead of X. I'd rather see Oregon win that one since they're already ahead of Xavier on most seed lists.

[jhelmes37]

Keep in mind in '08, we were 2-2 in the final four games prior to the NCAA tourney. Both losses came to St. Joseph's, who was an 11-seed and lost in the first round.

In X's last 5 games, they are 3-2 with wins over Villanova, Creighton, and Marquette. They lost twice to Seton Hall, a terrible match up for them. Seton Hall has a shot at a 6-8 seed, decidedly better than St. Joe's was in '08.

The league knows you. They see you multiple times, often 3 times in a season. They scout for you exclusively.

X may have cost themselves a seed line, but against a team that has never seen them and the coaches have 2-3 days to create a gameplan?

I'll take our chances this year.

You can hear the band warming up.

Time to dance.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I think X will be a 3. Not the end of the world, but just disappointing after the position they were in after the Nova win.

[X-band '01]

Regardless of whether Xavier gets a 2 or a 3, they're going to get a weaker than normal 14/15 seed thanks to the carnage in other conference tournaments (and there may be more to come today). Funny how that took place after the media began their annual "Will a 16 beat a 1" narrative.

Xavier benefited a lot last year in the Big East tournament because of favorable matchups; Seton Hall just doesn't add up against these guys for some reason. On the other hand, if they do wind up getting a 3, I think there's a decent chance that Xavier gets a potential rematch with Arizona in Round 2 this year. Other potentlal matchups would include Baylor, Cal and Iowa. Cal might be the scariest out of that group, but they don't have a good track record outside of Berkeley.

[OTRMUSKIE]

The defense has been giving up points in gobs and when X plays away from Cintas, their record isn't good. Good think they rallied at Wake or else that would be a black mark against X. I love the season that X has had, but there's no hiding the fact that they are not the team they were the first 10 games. This is the same fact the selection committee sees.

Away from
Cintas X has been great this year. I have never seen an X team have so many road wins

[XUFan09]

To me there are two metrics that comes into play. First, season's body of work. In this category, Xavier is stellar and worthy of a #2 seed. Second, last 10 games. This is where X is falling short and will likely cost them that #2 seed. The defense has been giving up points in gobs and when X plays away from Cintas, their record isn't good. Good think they rallied at Wake or else that would be a black mark against X. I love the season that X has had, but there's no hiding the fact that they are not the team they were the first 10 games. This is the same fact the selection committee sees.

The last 10 games is no longer a metric for the Selection Committee. It hasn't been for years.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[D-West & PO-Z]

I meant in the real tourney. Our last two s16s had some favorable dominoes fall our way.

I know I was saying really you think we are searching for effort and consistency still, I dont think so. We have historically done poor in conference tourneys. I dont think it means we are searching for something.

[D-West & PO-Z]

To me there are two metrics that comes into play. First, season's body of work. In this category, Xavier is stellar and worthy of a #2 seed. Second, last 10 games. This is where X is falling short and will likely cost them that #2 seed. The defense has been giving up points in gobs and when X plays away from Cintas, their record isn't good. Good think they rallied at Wake or else that would be a black mark against X. I love the season that X has had, but there's no hiding the fact that they are not the team they were the first 10 games. This is the same fact the selection committee sees.

Huh? We are 12-4 away from home, how is that not good?? That is superb.

[Strange Brew]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

X is a 2 seed. If not, bleep 'em and win.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'll have to look at the stats of winning % of 2's vs 3's in the tourney.

People were saying earlier in the year that 1 or 2 seed it doesnt matter location is more important. I found and posted some stats that completely refuted that. A 1 seed wins at such a bigger % than a 2 seed. I have a feeling the same may be for a 2 seed compared to a 3 seed. I agree matchups can make those things different but I'd much rather have a 2 seed than 3.

[JTG]

The object is to get to the FFour, so if we get sent West and make it I'm thrilled.

[xukeith]

27-5
5th in RPI
53 SOS
9-3 vs top 50
8-3 on road
4-0 on neutral

I'm pretty confident the committee won't overreact to the conference tourneys like the media does. Judging by our total body of work, we are a 2 seed. You could actually make a case for a 1 seed with the top 50 record and the 12-3 record away from home.

We're in a good spot. Totally agree that being in STL and the south bracket w/ a favorable draw is most important though.

I hope you are right BUT Butler's loss put them below 50 (wiping 2 top 50 wins) so I think X now has 7 top 50 wins.

[xukeith]

27-5
5th in RPI
53 SOS
9-3 vs top 50
8-3 on road
4-0 on neutral

I'm pretty confident the committee won't overreact to the conference tourneys like the media does. Judging by our total body of work, we are a 2 seed. You could actually make a case for a 1 seed with the top 50 record and the 12-3 record away from home.

We're in a good spot. Totally agree that being in STL and the south bracket w/ a favorable draw is most important though.

4-1 now on neutral (although MSG had 70% Villanova and SH fans)

[QueensbridgeMF]

Which regions play which days sweet 16?

[94GRAD]

Which regions play which days sweet 16?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14658737/2016-ncaa-tournament-schedule-key-dates

[Xavier]

The object is to get to the FFour, so if we get sent West and make it I'm thrilled.

Really? I don't know id like to see them play even if it means short of the FF. (Sarcasm).

[JTG]

Really? I don't know id like to see them play even if it means short of the FF. (Sarcasm).
The way some of the people on this board post you'd think that they would rather have a bad match-up as long as they could get blind drunk and see the game in person. Would I love to see the games in person, sure, but a weak region might be our best bet, and that might be West, as most of the killer teams are Midwest and South.

[Xavier]

I guess I agree I've seen some wanting to avoid out west. All I care about is the easiest path and I think that's what you mean. 100% of Xavier fans would take FF over a chance of X playing close and they lose earlier, though.

[bobbiemcgee]

I hope you are right BUT Butler's loss put them below 50 (wiping 2 top 50 wins) so I think X now has 7 top 50 wins.

Butler beat Seton Hall twice.

[markchal]

I know I was saying really you think we are searching for effort and consistency still, I dont think so. We have historically done poor in conference tourneys. I dont think it means we are searching for something.

Ah ok. Still, this goes beyond the conf tourney. We got pasted by SH less than two weeks ago and looked less than our best against Creighton. Yet we also take down nova and take care of biz v GT and Marquette. It's just disappointing how frequently we still come out flat or lazy on defense. Maybe some of it is due to our youth, but I hate going into the next game wondering if we're gonna come out focused and tough on D or not.

I'm definitely ready to start playing some teams that aren't familiar with us and the 1-3-1 though.

[Caveat]

They'll be a 3, IMO.

Frankly, that's probably to be expected when you look non-competitive in 2 of your last 4 games against an unranked opponent.

[Caveat]

Butler beat Seton Hall twice.

You didn't get the XH memo -- Seton Hall is a great team.

[D-West & PO-Z]

You didn't get the XH memo -- Seton Hall is a great team.

They arent a great team but they are pretty darn good. And they are a bad matchup for us. Shit happens.

If you want to think our entire seed deserves to come down to 2 of our last 4 games that is up to you, hopefully the committee doesnt agree.

[xukeith]

They arent a great team but they are pretty darn good. And they are a bad matchup for us. Shit happens.

If you want to think our entire seed deserves to come down to 2 of our last 4 games that is up to you, hopefully the committee doesnt agree.

Just saw interview where committee member says they have an eye test and use multiple matrices like Kenpom and rpi, and sagarin.

I hope X is a solid 2.
I want X to learn tough defense like Seton Hall BUT it might be too late.
Whitehead is a top 50 recruit for SH. X needs 3-5 top 60 recruits.

[nasdadjr]

I think a lot of you are way off. Usually by this point the bracket is already done and seedlings complete. Yesterday's loss didn't change anything at all. The only changes the committee makes now are when unexpected conference champions make it in and possibly bumps someone out. Right now though their bracket is already done.

That being said though looking at palms latest bracket is an absolute dream draw for X. Baylor iowa Virginia and Oregon has final four written all over it. Please god I hope he is right

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think a lot of you are way off. Usually by this point the bracket is already done and seedlings complete. Yesterday's loss didn't change anything at all. The only changes the committee makes now are when unexpected conference champions make it in and possibly bumps someone out. Right now though their bracket is already done.

That being said though looking at palms latest bracket is an absolute dream draw for X. Baylor iowa Virginia and Oregon has final four written all over it. Please god I hope he is right

Lol that is not true. WVU would have been probably a 3 seed before the conference tourney, if they beat KU they are a solid 2 if they arent already. Conference tourneys can move teams multiple seed lines.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Just saw interview where committee member says they have an eye test and use multiple matrices like Kenpom and rpi, and sagarin.

I hope X is a solid 2.
I want X to learn tough defense like Seton Hall BUT it might be too late.
Whitehead is a top 50 recruit for SH. X needs 3-5 top 60 recruits.

Whitehead was an McD AA wasnt he? Way better than top 50

[markchal]

They arent a great team but they are pretty darn good. And they are a bad matchup for us. Shit happens.

If you want to think our entire seed deserves to come down to 2 of our last 4 games that is up to you, hopefully the committee doesnt agree.

Obviously it's not entirely based off those two games, but I do think we're right on the border of a 2/3, and sine thing small (like the eye test of being blown out twice recently) could feasibly drop us to a 3.

[nasdadjr]

Lol that is not true. WVU would have been probably a 3 seed before the conference tourney, if they beat KU they are a solid 2 if they arent already. Conference tourneys can move teams multiple seed lines.

In years past the committee has emphasized overall body of work. No way 2 losses in like 3 weeks drops us a full line against a top 6 seeded team when other potential 2 seeds have taken worse losses in the same time frame.

[nasdadjr]

I promise you the bracket was done yesterday if not sooner and the only questions are small conference champions and the committee having to wait to see if Michigan loses and who wins the AAC.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I promise you the bracket was done yesterday if not sooner and the only questions are small conference champions and the committee having to wait to see if Michigan loses and who wins the AAC.

I promise you are wrong.

I am not saying they didnt have a bracket done or a chunk of it but teams who are already in can move multiple seed lines based on conference tourneys. Hell we did last year!

[Xavier]

Whitehead was an McD AA wasnt he? Way better than top 50

I don't know. I do know he's the best player in the league--well
I really haven't followed them at all but he impresses me most. Is he a candidate to leave early or will he be back next couple years?

[vee4xu]

On one hand, Seton Hall had more to gain seeding-wise than X had to lose seeding-wise. So, SH was motivated to win in hopes of getting a better seeding, perhaps close to home. That said, I'm not giving X a free pass for how they played. They should have said, "higher seeding my ass" and kicked the snot out of SH. They didn't and that's on the entire X team and coaching staff.

[nasdadjr]

I promise you are wrong.

I am not saying they didnt have a bracket done or a chunk of it but teams who are already in can move multiple seed lines based on conference tourneys. Hell we did last year!
Your telling me right now that these athletic directors who are assigned conferences, watch thousands of hours of games, know all the relevant teams inside and out and have used the eye test on all these teams as well are sitting in New York right now having been together a week now for dozens of hours voting and don't have a complete bracket? Impossible. As a matter of fact they had their original bracket probably by Thursday and in the interim have already created 2 or 3 more contingency brackets based on what they perceived as possible changes to their original

[nasdadjr]

That's why every year the Sunday conference tournaments seem irrelevant. It's cause the bracket was done way before they even played

[xubrew]

I promise you the bracket was done yesterday if not sooner and the only questions are small conference champions and the committee having to wait to see if Michigan loses and who wins the AAC.

I promise you the bracket is not done.

They do start seeding it as early as Thursday. They actually start before they've picked all the teams. But, they also scrub it all weekend long. Essentially, they go through it line by line, talk about it, and vote on whether or not to change it. If a committee member proposes that a change be made, and seven other members agree with the proposal, then they make the change. They are constantly reviewing it and making changes to it, and will most likely be doing that all day long. They'll also have multiple brackets to take into account all of tomorrow's possible results. And, tomorrow, they'll scrub the seed list again and make changes to the seeding.

[X-band '01]

I think a lot of you are way off. Usually by this point the bracket is already done and seedlings complete. Yesterday's loss didn't change anything at all. The only changes the committee makes now are when unexpected conference champions make it in and possibly bumps someone out. Right now though their bracket is already done.

That being said though looking at palms latest bracket is an absolute dream draw for X. Baylor iowa Virginia and Oregon has final four written all over it. Please god I hope he is right

Almost all the at-large teams will have been selected by now, but the entire field (plus contingency teams) isn't seeded until late on Saturday night. After a few "scrubs" of the field, the committee will also prepare contingency brackets on Sunday depending on outcomes of the Sun Belt (read: Ark-Little Rock), the Atlantic 10 and the American.

[HenryMuto]

A good chance X fell to a 3 seed now with the loss in combo with West Virginia's win yesterday. Sucks really sucks. Buddy was 0.1 seconds away from a game winning half court shot that would likely have kept X a 2 seed maybe.

[xubrew]

A good chance X fell to a 3 seed now with the loss in combo with West Virginia's win yesterday. Sucks really sucks. Buddy was 0.1 seconds away from a game winning half court shot that would likely have kept X a 2 seed maybe.

People get all worked up about seeding, but on Monday no one will really care anymore. Your seed does not change your ceiling.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Your telling me right now that these athletic directors who are assigned conferences, watch thousands of hours of games, know all the relevant teams inside and out and have used the eye test on all these teams as well are sitting in New York right now having been together a week now for dozens of hours voting and don't have a complete bracket? Impossible. As a matter of fact they had their original bracket probably by Thursday and in the interim have already created 2 or 3 more contingency brackets based on what they perceived as possible changes to their original

You apparently didnt read my post.

Answer this, was X a 6 seed prior to the start of the BE tourney last year?

[Masterofreality]

People get all worked up about seeding, but on Monday no one will really care anymore. Your seed does not change your ceiling.

I was just about to post this same thing. Nice Brew. I care more about the matchups and what our path is. We'll find out tomorrow night.

[xubrew]

I was just about to post this same thing. Nice Brew. I care more about the matchups and what our path is. We'll find out tomorrow night.

When it comes to match-ups, there's really only one team that scares the hell out of me that I really don't want to see in the early rounds. That's Wisconsin. I think they end up as a #7. If we're a #3, then I'm great with that!

[Masterofreality]

When it comes to match-ups, there's really only one team that scares the hell out of me that I really don't want to see in the early rounds. That's Wisconsin. I think they end up as a #7. If we're a #3, then I'm great with that!

In actuality NO Big 10 team scares me this year. Most overrated league in America. Lots of press but meh results.

[xukeith]

In actuality NO Big 10 team scares me this year. Most overrated league in America. Lots of press but meh results.

AAC got lots of press??

[XU 87]

You apparently didnt read my post.

Answer this, was X a 6 seed prior to the start of the BE tourney last year?

I can answer that question- "No". In fact, we were in bubble team land before the BE tourney.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I can answer that question- "No". In fact, we were in bubble team land before the BE tourney.

Exactly.

[JTG]

Butler beat Seton Hall twice.
Let that tidbit sink in for a minute, Butler who we absolutely crushed twice, beat the Hall twice, shit happens, we just don't match up well and we we're stone cold last night.

[X-Fan]

Keep in mind in '08, we were 2-2 in the final four games prior to the NCAA tourney. Both losses came to St. Joseph's, who was an 11-seed and lost in the first round.

In X's last 5 games, they are 3-2 with wins over Villanova, Creighton, and Marquette. They lost twice to Seton Hall, a terrible match up for them. Seton Hall has a shot at a 6-8 seed, decidedly better than St. Joe's was in '08.

The league knows you. They see you multiple times, often 3 times in a season. They scout for you exclusively.

X may have cost themselves a seed line, but against a team that has never seen them and the coaches have 2-3 days to create a gameplan?

I'll take our chances this year.

You can hear the band warming up.

Time to dance.
So glad someone brought this up. I was thinking about that team & St. Joes last night. There always seems to be a team that has your number and/or is a bad matchup for your personnel. Heck, the 03-04 team lost to Duquesne TWICE.


Let that tidbit sink in for a minute, Butler who we absolutely crushed twice, beat the Hall twice, shit happens, we just don't match up well and we we're stone cold last night.
Exactly. #Matchups

[Xavier]

Again, normally seed doesn't bother me too much, I think it's a little more important than others. But mainly I really wanted to see X get the highest seed in program history. Here is to hoping they do

[nasdadjr]

Must have been or real close to one. I can promise you they were not an 8 or 9 seed and jumped to a six

[nasdadjr]

I can answer that question- "No". In fact, we were in bubble team land before the BE tourney.

Sorry but it is delusional to think 3 games or about 10 percent of the schedule jumped X from a bubble possibly not getting in all the way to a six seed. That's just not the way it works

[vee4xu]

Okay, on this match up issue, I have a question. I'm not savvy in exactly how this seeding thing works, so my question is, does the lowest #2 seed get a tougher path than the highest #3 seed? Anyone with insight on this topic, your response is much appreciated.

[vee4xu]

Also, Utah beating Oregon would likely help X's cause.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Also, Utah beating Oregon would likely help X's cause.

I think it would hurt. I think most had Oregon a solid 2 seed already, and some think Utah could jump to a 2 with a win.

[vee4xu]

I think it would hurt. I think most had Oregon a solid 2 seed already, and some think Utah could jump to a 2 with a win.

Possibly. But, a Utah win would at least throw all three teams into the body-of-work cauldron and I think X stacks up pretty well there.

[X-band '01]

Also, Utah beating Oregon would likely help X's cause.


I think it would hurt. I think most had Oregon a solid 2 seed already, and some think Utah could jump to a 2 with a win.

I agree with D-West here; Oregon is already ahead of Xavier by virtue of their Pac-12 regular season title; better for them to just cement that with the double. I'd even argue the Ducks should get a 1 instead of Oklahoma or the ACC loser tonight. That also leads me to believe that West Virginia vaults Xavier with a win tonight (if they haven't done so already).

[94GRAD]

Must have been or real close to one. I can promise you they were not an 8 or 9 seed and jumped to a six

Actually, you cannot promise anything because you have NO idea the process of their seeding last year!!!

[XUFan09]

Actually, you cannot promise anything because you have NO idea the process of their seeding last year!!!

Yup.

He continues to do the same thing over and over: Take a bit of truth and then run with it. In this case, the truth is that conference tournaments don't have a major impact on seeding. Basically, that means that a team can't entirely turn their fortunes around in a 3-5 day stretch with a good showing. Okay, makes sense.

At the same time, that does not mean that conference tournaments have zero impact on seeding. The Selection Committee will still be accounting for games being played and like Brew said, they will make changes to the penciled-in bracket whenever enough Committee members agree. It's not extremely difficult to get enough Committee members agree when a team has picked up a big win or a bad loss. Xavier didn't pick up a bad loss but they also missed the opportunity for the good win, while some other teams are picking up big wins and threatening to pick up more. It's not like Xavier is going to drop from a 2 seed to a 6 seed, but if Xavier was, say, the second best 2 seed, it would be very easy to shift down to the best 3 seed.

[nasdadjr]

Actually, you cannot promise anything because you have NO idea the process of their seeding last year!!!

Um yes I can promise you because I do have insight to their selection process just like you do. As I recall just like every year the NCAA chairman is grilled by the media every year. He gives the insights that lead to to say what I say. Not only that they publish their S curve for the public to see so I CAN promise what I am saying as accurate unless the published S curve and chairman are all lies

[xu82]

Actually, you cannot promise anything because you have NO idea the process of their seeding last year!!!

But.......other than that.......

[94GRAD]

Um yes I can promise you because I do have insight to their selection process just like you do. As I recall just like every year the NCAA chairman is grilled by the media every year. He gives the insights that lead to to say what I say. Not only that they publish their S curve for the public to see so I CAN promise what I am saying as accurate unless the published S curve and chairman are all lies

So they publish an S curve before they conference tournaments and then after? What am I missing?

[nasdadjr]

I think it would hurt. I think most had Oregon a solid 2 seed already, and some think Utah could jump to a 2 with a win.

D west your 100% correct Oregon is a guaranteed 2 seed and Utah winning will hurt X

[nasdadjr]

So they publish an S curve before they conference tournaments and then after? What am I missing?

Just after but we are talking about last year. I was told I have no insight into last years committee. That isn't true cause we can all access their info including the s curve last year. If you know how the S curve works then you can infer that X didn't jump up 10 spots in 3 games like some people on here think they did. It's just not how the s curve works

[XUFan09]

Um yes I can promise you because I do have insight to their selection process just like you do. As I recall just like every year the NCAA chairman is grilled by the media every year. He gives the insights that lead to to say what I say. Not only that they publish their S curve for the public to see so I CAN promise what I am saying as accurate unless the published S curve and chairman are all lies

The S-cuve and the reasoning for various selections/seedings are all after the conference tournaments are over. That doesn't say anything about before the conference tournaments, when the Selection Committee members don't go into great detail other than saying what they mean by taking injuries into account and the like.

[XUFan09]

Just after but we are talking about last year. I was told I have no insight into last years committee. That isn't true cause we can all access their info including the s curve last year. If you know how the S curve works then you can infer that X didn't jump up 10 spots in 3 games like some people on here think they did. It's just not how the s curve works

Considering how mixed together and similar the various 4 to 9 seeded teams were, it's very easy to move up a few spots. The Committee members even commented last year that there wasn't much difference within this range. Xavier wasn't in bubble territory before the conference tournament, but they were worse than the last 6 seed. Where they fell before the tournament is not open to the public, but picking up two top 50 wins on a neutral court will help differentiate a team a bit.

You aren't reasonably inferring. You are extrapolating (http://www.dictionary.com/browse/extrapolate?o=1).

[nasdadjr]

Think about it each seed is a minimum 4 spots on the S curve. How can anyone say 1 or 2 games is worth 4 to 8 spots on the curve? In other words 1 game or about 3 percent of the schedule is worth about 6 to 7 percent on the curve? Mathematically it just doesn't make sense

[Caveat]

People get all worked up about seeding, but on Monday no one will really care anymore. Your seed does not change your ceiling.

I want the highest seed possible and easiest path possible -- they don't award extra credit for upping the difficulty level for yourself.

[nasdadjr]

The S-cuve and the reasoning for various selections/seedings are all after the conference tournaments are over. That doesn't say anything about before the conference tournaments, when the Selection Committee members don't go into great detail other than saying what they mean by taking injuries into account and the like.

100 percent not true because it is a metric that is used before the 5 or 6 conference tournaments on Sunday are over.

[XUFan09]

Think about it each seed is a minimum 4 spots on the S curve. How can anyone say 1 or 2 games is worth 4 to 8 spots on the curve? In other words 1 game or about 3 percent of the schedule is worth about 6 to 7 percent on the curve? Mathematically it just doesn't make sense

You're treating unlike values as proportional. Mathematically that doesn't make sense.

[XUFan09]

100 percent not true because it is a metric that is used before the 5 or 6 conference tournaments on Sunday are over.

And because some are not decided yet, the Selection Committee has contingency brackets. Last year, there were twelve (https://twitter.com/kmattio/status/698219888352108544).

[nasdadjr]

So let's look at Xavier from last year to explain my point. Someone on here said they were a bubble team which lets say real bubble teams start at a 10 seed. Xavier got a six seed which means if they were a true bubble team they moved up a minimum of 13 spots assuming they were the best 10 seed and with the conference tournament became the worst 6 seed which as I recall from last years curve they were not but let's just assume they were cause I may be wrong. That means...

2 wins or 6.6% of their schedule impacted them 19.1% on the s curve. Do you really think the committee is that short sighted?

[XUFan09]

By the way, how about this for a moment of logic:

If the S-curve is set before the conference tournaments, then why is the Selection Committee regularly working until the last minute? By your claims, their work would already been done well before Selection Sunday.

[nasdadjr]

And because some are not decided yet, the Selection Committee has contingency brackets. Last year, there were twelve (https://twitter.com/kmattio/status/698219888352108544).
Exactly your making my point because for them to make one bracket and 12 contingencies their has to be a metric or mutilple metrics in place before those games are over.

[nasdadjr]

By the way, how about this for a moment of logic:

If the S-curve is set before the conference tournaments, then why is the Selection Committee regularly working until the last minute? By your claims, their work would already been done well before Selection Sunday.

Yes that is what I'm saying. Sunday is more of a formality. There might be a slight seed change or something which is possible based on results but by later tonight at large teams and seedings are pretty much locked in. Like I said 3 percent of a teams schedule isn't going to have 400 times the effect on the committees metrics

[XUFan09]

So let's look at Xavier from last year to explain my point. Someone on here said they were a bubble team which lets say real bubble teams start at a 10 seed. Xavier got a six seed which means if they were a true bubble team they moved up a minimum of 13 spots assuming they were the best 10 seed and with the conference tournament became the worst 6 seed which as I recall from last years curve they were not but let's just assume they were cause I may be wrong. That means...

2 wins or 6.6% of their schedule impacted them 19.1% on the s curve. Do you really think the committee is that short sighted?

Those that say Xavier was a bubble team are wrong. If you are debating with me, you are fighting a strawman argument. And again, you are trying to treat mismatched values as something proportional. Again, that mathematically doesn't make sense.

Heck, even if you were to embark down this insensible mathematical voyage, you're doing it wrong. There are 351 Division 1 teams. Most are simply treated as "not included" by the Selection Committee by the time we get to the end of the season, but every single team was at least considered. So, if Xavier moved up from, say, the 2nd best 8 seed (#30) to the last 6th seed (#24), they moved up 6 spots out of 351 teams or 1.7%. So, 6.6% of the schedule affected a move of 1.7%.

Again, you are using faulty mathematical logic, treating these are proportional when that doesn't make sense, but even by your faulty logic, you're doing it wrong.

[xubrew]

Okay, on this match up issue, I have a question. I'm not savvy in exactly how this seeding thing works, so my question is, does the lowest #2 seed get a tougher path than the highest #3 seed? Anyone with insight on this topic, your response is much appreciated.

I'm not entirely sure what you're asking, but I think the answer is maybe, but not necessarily.

The seeding works like this. The committee starts out by collectively voting for eight teams that they think should be considered for the #1 line. Each member picks eight, and the eight teams that get the most votes are the eight teams that they consider. So, you have ten people picking eight teams each, and the eight teams that get the most votes are the eight teams.

They discuss those eight teams. Then they each rank them 1-8. The top four teams are the #1 seeds. The next four teams get carried over. They then collectively vote for four more teams to consider for the #2 seeds. They vote the same way, end up with eight teams, rank them 1-thru-8, and then the top four are the #2 seeds. This process repeats itself.

So, you end up with teams that are essentially ranked 1-thru-68 when it's over. They generally seed the first few lines on Thursday and Friday. But, they are also constantly scrubbing it based on the results. Say Seton Hall was 30th before the game last night (which is an #8 seed, but the committee wouldn't call them a #8 seed. They'd call them #30). After that win, they now have a big win on a neutral floor that teams in front of them do not have. So, a committee member could make a motion to move them. Say he/she now feels they belong at #25, and that 26, 27, 28, and 29 should all be moved down one spot. He can make the motion to do this, argue his point, and then they'll vote on whether or not to do it. This is ALWAYS happening. So, to say that teams don't move based on what happens in the conference tournaments is kind of like saying that an NFL team has it's final roster in place in July and makes no changes throughout the preseason.

So, after the teams are ranked 1-thru-68, which really isn't finalized for good until Sunday, they begin building the bracket. They go down the list, so if Kansas is #1 they'll put them in the closest region and sub-regional sites that are available. So, they'll be going to Chicago for the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight, and probably Des Moines for the first/second round.

The #2 team (or second #1 seed) gets the next best one available

And...on down the list. There is a directive in place to not put the highest #2 seed (#5 overall) with the highest #1 seed even if it is the best geographic fit for them).

So, does the last #2 have an easier path than the highest #3?? It all depends. They put each team in the closest available spot. Sometimes a #3 seed gets shipped across the country. Sometimes a #10 seed gets placed less than an hour away. It just depends on how it works out.

[nasdadjr]

You're treating unlike values as proportional. Mathematically that doesn't make sense.

They are directly proportional. If a team loses people always say they dropped a seed. My point is to show how that just isn't the case.

[XUFan09]

Exactly your making my point because for them to make one bracket and 12 contingencies their has to be a metric or mutilple metrics in place before those games are over.

Of course there are metrics in place. I never said there weren't. But, nothing is stopping the Selection Committee from making adjustments to that, even on Selection Sunday. And the very fact that there are contingency brackets proves that the conference tournaments matter. Because we're not just talking about bid thieves cropping up on Sunday. That only takes a single pair of contingency brackets, one for the bid thief winning and one for them losing. We're also talking about two teams that will be in the field fighting for a better seed.

[nasdadjr]

Those that say Xavier was a bubble team are wrong. If you are debating with me, you are fighting a strawman argument. And again, you are trying to treat mismatched values as something proportional. Again, that mathematically doesn't make sense.

Heck, even if you were to embark down this insensible mathematical voyage, you're doing it wrong. There are 351 Division 1 teams. Most are simply treated as "not included" by the Selection Committee by the time we get to the end of the season, but every single team was at least considered. So, if Xavier moved up from, say, the 2nd best 8 seed (#30) to the last 6th seed (#24), they moved up 6 spots out of 351 teams or 1.7%. So, 6.6% of the schedule affected a move of 1.7%.

Again, you are using faulty mathematical logic, treating these are proportional when that doesn't make sense, but even by your faulty logic, you're doing it wrong.
Sorry sir but you need to go back and rework your numbers. The published s curve is only done for 68 teams not 351 so that is where you numbers are faulty. you do not include irrelevant numbers didn't you learn about significant digits in math? Yes I could calculate pi and a bazillion numbers but we really only care about 3 of them. Same thing applies here

[XUFan09]

They are directly proportional. If a team loses people always say they dropped a seed. My point is to show how that just isn't the case.

When did I make that claim? Here, go educate yourself on strawman arguments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man). Basically, a couple people said something, and you're treating everyone else as claiming the same thing.

And though winning games is directly proportional to moving up the S-curve, it's not in the nice, neat way that you make it out to be.

[XUFan09]

Sorry sir but you need to go back and rework your numbers. The published s curve is only done for 68 teams not 351 so that is where you numbers are faulty. you do not include irrelevant numbers didn't you learn about significant digits in math? Yes I could calculate pi and a bazillion numbers but we really only care about 3 of them. Same thing applies here

The Selection Committee considers all teams in Division 1. All eligible teams, actually, so I guess we're really at 347 or something like that. They don't bother to put all of them on the S-curve, because it's not necessary by the end of the season. But as the season goes, even Central Connecticut or Florida A&M are considered for the tournament until they prove they don't belong without the autobid.

So yes, these teams are relevant in how to value teams. The Selection Committee is ranking the 68 best teams in America from a group of 351, minus neligible squads.

And once again, the initial logic employed to get to this is faulty. So whatever.

[nasdadjr]

Of course there are metrics in place. I never said there weren't. But, nothing is stopping the Selection Committee from making adjustments to that, even on Selection Sunday. And the very fact that there are contingency brackets proves that the conference tournaments matter. Because we're not just talking about bid thieves cropping up on Sunday. That only takes a single pair of contingency brackets, one for the bid thief winning and one for them losing. We're also talking about two teams that will be in the field fighting for a better seed.

The committee isn't going to rearrange a whole bracket and throw away their seedings on a team based on one game for the most part. Of course there will be some exceptions like if WV wins tonight but for the most part they won't change what they have done

[XUFan09]

The committee isn't going to rearrange a whole bracket and throw away their seedings on a team based on one game for the most part. Of course there will be some exceptions like if WV wins tonight but for the most part they won't change what they have done

The Selection Committee works long hours this weekend precisely because they have to do some rearranging. That's not saying they have to blow up entire brackets in order to make the necessary changes, though, especially when we're talking non-protected seeds (which are really easy to move around). They are still employing the "entire body of work" method, but the conference tournament games count toward that body of work.

You are being just as obstinate as some Seton Hall fan on Holy Land of Hoops who insisted that Connecticut wasn't making the tournament in 2011 before winning the Big East Tournament. He somehow thought a team could go from out of the tournament to a 4 seed in a few days. You are nothing more than the opposite ridiculous extreme.

[xubrew]

The committee isn't going to rearrange a whole bracket and throw away their seedings on a team based on one game for the most part. Of course there will be some exceptions like if WV wins tonight but for the most part they won't change what they have done

Building the bracket after the teams are ranked takes about ten minutes. The computer basically does it for them because it tells them what the closest sites are to each team, and what sites teams cannot go to due to bracketing rules. That's why they're able to make four, and five, and even eight brackets for all possible Sunday results.

As sure as yourself as you seem to be, I don't think you really understand how this works. The seed list is ALWAYS changing. All the way up until Sunday afternoon. If a team does something in the conference tournament that completely changes the complexion of their profile as Xavier did last year when they beat two ranked teams on a neutral court, they can move up three or four lines, or perhaps even more.

[nasdadjr]

about to start my shift so I'll continue later

[XUFan09]

about to start my shift so I'll continue later

We won't miss you lol.

[xubrew]

Seton Hall might win the Big East and pick up two top ten wins away from home in the process. Too bad they were probably a 8 seed prior to the tournament starting, and therefore can't be moved up.

[XUFan09]

Seton Hall might win the Big East and pick up two top ten wins away from home in the process. Too bad they were probably a 8 seed prior to the tournament starting, and therefore can't be moved up.
Lol

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[XUFan09]

Concerning Xavier, I could still see them getting a 2 seed, but if they had won, they would have locked it up. They were probably #5 or #6 on the S-curve heading into the conference tournament. Beating Marquette didn't really move the needle much and losing to Seton Hall probably didn't impact things too much either. But, some other teams near Xavier are doing well, enough to possibly shift past Xavier. It's not a case of them leaping over Xavier, as if it was some big jump. It's a case of some teams having fairly similar resumes to Xavier recently adding big wins.

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[GIMMFD]

Concerning Xavier, I could still see them getting a 2 seed, but if they had one, they would have locked it up. They were probably #5 or #6 on the S-curve heading into the conference tournament. Beating Marquette didn't really move the needle much and losing to Seton Hall probably didn't impact things too much either. But, some other teams near Xavier are doing well, enough to possibly shift past Xavier. It's not a case of them leaping over Xavier, as if it was some big jump. It's a case of some teams having fairly similar resumes to Xavier recently adding big wins.

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Gotta keep an eye on WVU tonight. If they clip Kansas they're guaranteed a 2 seed, and if they lose they could still possibly jump us. Right now the way things are going I'm thinking (would love any opposing input if possible!!)

1. Kansas (win or lose)
2. Michigan State (win or lose vs Purdue)
3. Winner of UVA/UNC
4. ?????? (if Nova loses)

That leaves the 2 seeds at this in discussion:
Us, WVU, Loser of UVA/UNC, Nova (if they lose), Oklahoma (just because everybody loves them I guess), and Oregon (if they beat Utah). And to be honest, if Nova loses, I would not be shocked at all if they jump WVU to a 1 seed just because of beating Kansas twice, and Oklahoma once, they have some good wins over Baylor and Iowa State too... The Big 12 is the toughest conference this season, so them getting two 1 seeds wouldn't shock me.

[XUFan09]

I feel Xavier has a better resume than Oklahoma and UNC (if UVA beats them), or at least better than one of them. I also think WVU needs the win over Kansas to pass Xavier. I know I'm biased, but if the Selection Committee agrees with some of that, it would work out well for Xavier.

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[GIMMFD]

I feel Xavier has a better resume than Oklahoma and UNC (if UVA beats them), or at least better than one of them. I also think WVU needs the win over Kansas to pass Xavier. I know I'm biased, but if the Selection Committee agrees with some of that, it would work out well for Xavier.

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The only reason I don't 100% agree with you is branding. UNC doesn't have a great Top 50 RPI, if they selected blindly, I definitely would agree that we have a better resume, the think is I think the committee will have a bias towards UNC because of history and them being a blue blood. WVU won't get the benefit of the doubt, I think Oklahoma will though because they are historically good as well. I'm hoping the committee doesn't do this, I'm not 100% sure if they select blindly or not, but if not it definitely doesn't play to our benefit.

[xukeith]

I feel Xavier has a better resume than Oklahoma and UNC (if UVA beats them), or at least better than one of them. I also think WVU needs the win over Kansas to pass Xavier. I know I'm biased, but if the Selection Committee agrees with some of that, it would work out well for Xavier.

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[/CENTER]
Xavier currently has 6 wins against top 50. 3 losses.

2 Bad sub 100 losses to Creighton and Georgetown.

I see WVU, MSU, UVA, VU, Miami (FL), Kansas, and Oklahoma as teams with better resumes. LAst 2 seed? I hope but doubt.
Probably best 3 seed.

[xukeith]

Gotta keep an eye on WVU tonight. If they clip Kansas they're guaranteed a 2 seed, and if they lose they could still possibly jump us. Right now the way things are going I'm thinking (would love any opposing input if possible!!)

1. Kansas (win or lose)
2. Michigan State (win or lose vs Purdue)
3. Winner of UVA/UNC
4. ?????? (if Nova loses)

That leaves the 2 seeds at this in discussion:
Us, WVU, Loser of UVA/UNC, Nova (if they lose), Oklahoma (just because everybody loves them I guess), and Oregon (if they beat Utah). And to be honest, if Nova loses, I would not be shocked at all if they jump WVU to a 1 seed just because of beating Kansas twice, and Oklahoma once, they have some good wins over Baylor and Iowa State too... The Big 12 is the toughest conference this season, so them getting two 1 seeds wouldn't shock me.

Villanova is a solid 1 seed. If loses, they are last 1 seed.

[XUFan09]

The only reason I don't 100% agree with you is branding. UNC doesn't have a great Top 50 RPI, if they selected blindly, I definitely would agree that we have a better resume, the think is I think the committee will have a bias towards UNC because of history and them being a blue blood. WVU won't get the benefit of the doubt, I think Oklahoma will though because they are historically good as well. I'm hoping the committee doesn't do this, I'm not 100% sure if they select blindly or not, but if not it definitely doesn't play to our benefit.
I don't think branding is as impactful for the Selection Committee as others. Keep in mind that most of the Committee members are ADs at schools in mid-major or low-major conferences, the kind who are more likely to be a bit more skeptical of teams from major conferences who are purported to be great.

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[XUFan09]

[/CENTER]
Xavier currently has 6 wins against top 50. 3 losses.

2 Bad sub 100 losses to Creighton and Georgetown.

I see WVU, MSU, UVA, VU, Miami (FL), Kansas, and Oklahoma as teams with better resumes. LAst 2 seed? I hope but doubt.
Probably best 3 seed.
Creighton is actually just barely top 100, while Georgetown is just barely outside, and the Committee knows that. They also know that both teams are much better than just about every other ranking system and both teams have talent.

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[vee4xu]

D west your 100% correct Oregon is a guaranteed 2 seed and Utah winning will hurt X

Just curious. Why is Oregon a lock win or lose, but Xavier is not?

[D-West & PO-Z]

The committee isn't going to rearrange a whole bracket and throw away their seedings on a team based on one game for the most part. Of course there will be some exceptions like if WV wins tonight but for the most part they won't change what they have done

You said teams dont move up or down because of conference tournaments. You said they only adjust based on a surprise team getting in. So again I ask you was XU a 6 seed before the BE tourney last year?

No.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Just curious. Why is Oregon a lock win or lose, but Xavier is not?

I think they are 3 in the RPI. They won the Pac12 reg season, a better league than BE. They have 6 top 25 wins, 11 top 50, and 21 top 100 wins. Only 5 of their wins came against sub 150 opponents. They do have 2 bad losses though.

[xubrew]

If Oregon beats Utah, it will be their second win away from home against a protected seed. Granted, the other game they won was also against Utah, but still. We don't have a win away from home against a protected seed. I personally don't think we'll end up seeded better than any of the teams around us that do. I'm okay with that because, like I said earlier, your seed is not your ceiling, but I'm just saying I don't think we'll be on the #1 or #2 line.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi has XU as a 2 seed again, dropped WVU.

[Blue Blobs Bro]

Some ESPN analyst was just asked about who ku doesn't want in their bracket, he responded with"ku wouldn't wanna see Xavier as that last 2 seed in their bracket, Xavier's got some Guards that can really run" interesting to here that he thought we were still in that 2 line.

[XU 23]

Not being in Seton Hall's bracket is a 1 seed to me.

[Xville]

Some ESPN analyst was just asked about who ku doesn't want in their bracket, he responded with"ku wouldn't wanna see Xavier as that last 2 seed in their bracket, Xavier's got some Guards that can really run" interesting to here that he thought we were still in that 2 line.

Whoever that analyst was is a moron and clearly has not watched any of our games...we have guards that can shoot but we don't really run and quite frankly we aren't very good at it. Ku is a nightmare for X.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It was Jay williams. Not sure exactly what he said but I posted in the other thread he said that. And Greenberg said they didnt wanna see UC, lol!

[Xavier]

Whoever that analyst was is a moron and clearly has not watched any of our games...we have guards that can shoot but we don't really run and quite frankly we aren't very good at it. Ku is a nightmare for X.

KU is a nightmare for anyone. They will likely choke before the elite 8, though. Regardless, you won't find many faster guards than sumner.

[xukeith]

KU is a nightmare for anyone. They will likely choke before the elite 8, though. Regardless, you won't find many faster guards than sumner.

Sumner needs to be a body builder over the summer.
X needs a Whitehead. As a sophomore, he is the best. He was #35 in his recruiting class. I think Bluiett was 39 or 41

[paulxu]

As of 9 PM, KPI (who was pretty good at seed lines last year) is showing us as a 2. In fact, the highest 2 seed. Will be interesting to see if that holds up.

[xukeith]

I don't remember anybody in media or "expert" last year saying XU was going to be a 6 seed and G'Town a 4 seed.
I hope this KPI guy is right and all these TV people wrong

[xu82]

Just keep winning.

[vee4xu]

Watching UNC vs UVA and saw that Lunardi has moved Villanova to a 2 seed. Bilas said that if Oregon beats Utah, they are a one seed. We'll see if he selection committee has the balls to give the BE two well deserved 2 seeds in Villanova and X. I added the well deserved as an editorial comment!

[Xavier]

Sumner needs to be a body builder over the summer.
X needs a Whitehead. As a sophomore, he is the best. He was #35 in his recruiting class. I think Bluiett was 39 or 41

I thought he was an All American. Regardless, very X fan would agree, would be nice to have the best player in the BE. (I think Bluiett can be next year, actually).

[D-West & PO-Z]

I thought he was an All American. Regardless, very X fan would agree, would be nice to have the best player in the BE. (I think Bluiett can be next year, actually).

He was a McDonald's AA.

[paulxu]

I don't get moving UNC ahead of Nova.

[GIMMFD]

I don't get moving UNC ahead of Nova.

I guess they're really weighing a pretty touch ACC schedule, and throwing out that loss to Northern Iowa because of Paige being injured?

[wkrq59]

Saw latest lunardi x2 v greenbay15 then dayughton vpitt winner. vhmmmmmmm

[LA Muskie]

Just curious. Why is Oregon a lock win or lose, but Xavier is not?

Oregon was their conference regular season champion and made it to their conference tournament final (at least). We did neither.


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[OTRMUSKIE]

I believe Oklahoma will be allowed two losses in the dance. If they get a 2 seed and X doesn't I will puke. VD would be an awesome 2nd rd game.

[LA Muskie]

I believe Oklahoma will be allowed two losses in the dance. If they get a 2 seed and X doesn't I will puke.

I'm not sure why you would say that. By most metrics they have a better resume than us. Better KenPom, better RPI, better Sagarin.

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[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm sure the committee loves the 3:15pm tip off in the American where Memphis can win and get themselves in.

Although I am sure they just have 2 brackets at that point one with them out and one with them in.

[xeus]

Has anyone ever seen NASDADJR and _LH in the same place, at the same time? Hmmmm.

[waggy]

Would love to have a 2, but don't think it's going to happen.

[American X]

Play-in game versus UC in Dayton. Book it.


(or 2 seed at the United Center facing UK and KU)

[OTRMUSKIE]

Would love to have a 2, but don't think it's going to happen.

I agree I feel a 3 but Dance Card and Joe Donuts have us as a 2. Dance card has us as the top 2. That site is scary good too. As long as we are in the south region I'm okay with a 3

[THRILLHOUSE]

I agree I feel a 3 but Dance Card and Joe Donuts have us as a 2. Dance card has us as the top 2. That site is scary good too. As long as we are in the south region I'm okay with a 3

Dance Card has Utah as a 1 seed. Even if that hasn't been updated since Pac12 championship, that is quite a reach. As is unc as only a 3 seed. So I'm not putting any stock into this dance card protection. Yeah, X could get a 2 seed, but no way is X #5 on the S curve right now.

[XUFan09]

I thought Dance Card was only really good at predicting tournament selection, not seeding.

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[Newswired]

Anybody else just hear Mike Lupica beg for Xavier to win it this year on ESPN's The Sports Reporters? Let's grant him his wish.

[Muncie]

For us this year, is a 2 really that much better than a 3 if we want to make it to Houston ? If so why?

[X-Fan]

For us this year, is a 2 really that much better than a 3 if we want to make it to Houston ? If so why?

To me, a 2 seed allows X to avoid a good 14 seed and a dangerous six seed. Plus it would give them their highest seed ever.

[THill42]

Lunardi has them back at a 2 seed.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/257

[THRILLHOUSE]

I thought Dance Card was only really good at predicting tournament selection, not seeding.

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Probably. That's the case for most "bracketologists". Lunardi and Palm typically get the at larges correct other than one or two misses. They are bad a getting the seeds correct. Typically isn't too difficult to predict who's getting in, though this year could be tough since so many bubble teams did poorly this week.

[X-band '01]

Has anyone ever seen NASDADJR and _LH in the same place, at the same time? Hmmmm.

He goes by Nasdad when he's on a phone/tablet I love runon sentences lmao.

[THRILLHOUSE]

"@marchmadness The Committee will have multiple brackets based on the outcomes of the five games today. #SelectionSunday"

"@marchmadness UPDATE: The Committee is doing a contingency seeding exercise involving teams playing today. After that, it will start bracketing."

[OTRMUSKIE]

I'm not sure why you would say that. By most metrics they have a better resume than us. Better KenPom, better RPI, better Sagarin.

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Because Oklahoma seems to get a pass every time they lose. They have 7 losses and one guy name Buddy. I'm telling you that team along with Indiana will be gone first weekend. As far as 2 vs 3 Imwould say I want the two just because X never has had one before. We have had a 3 but never a 2. I just want that South Bracket.

[bleedXblue]

We want the south. Get through the first weekend and then we're in Louisville......

[THRILLHOUSE]

We want the south. Get through the first weekend and then we're in Louisville......

Unless they put UK in Louisville, then I would prefer the Chicago region. But then again Kansas would be Midwest so I'd prefer to avoid them...so I guess I'm fine with Louisville even if UK is there.

[nuts4xu]

I am ok with whatever seed we get, I'm more concerned with learning our potential match ups.

It would be great to earn a #2 seed from the program, but I want to see Xavier win the whole tournament. The seed we get doesn't guarantee we get to Houston.

We have been one of the best teams in the country all season....especially against teams not named Seton Hall. We pose match up problems, and most teams don't know how to attack our 1-3-1. I like our chances the next couple weeks, and much less worried about the seed we are assigned than in years past.

[X-band '01]

The only real difference between getting the last 2 seed or the first 3 seed are the 1st and 2nd round opponents. Get past that and the only difference is whether Xavier wears white or black in the Sweet 16.

[ThrowDownDBrown]

Who cares about the region I want the the best and easiest matchups. If Oregon gets a one seed then I'd much rather be in their region then Kansas, UNC or Michiagn St.

[XU 87]

I am ok with whatever seed we get, I'm more concerned with learning our potential match ups.

It would be great to earn a #2 seed from the program, but I want to see Xavier win the whole tournament. The seed we get doesn't guarantee we get to Houston.

We have been one of the best teams in the country all season....especially against teams not named Seton Hall. We pose match up problems, and most teams don't know how to attack our 1-3-1. I like our chances the next couple weeks, and much less worried about the seed we are assigned than in years past.

I agree. There ain't much difference between getting the last 2 seed or the first three seed. That said, I would like to see a 2 seed. A 2 seed would make the program look a little better.

And the '87 family we will be watching Selection Sunday at Goodfellows.

[94GRAD]

I agree. There ain't much difference between getting the last 2 seed or the first three seed. That said, I would like to see a 2 seed. A 2 seed would make the program look a little better.

And the '87 family we will be watching Selection Sunday at Goodfellows.

I feel like a cheated on girlfriend. HA!

[D-West & PO-Z]

Better seeds win at a higher % in the tournament. I want a 2 seed.

[nasdadjr]

He goes by Nasdad when he's on a phone/tablet I love runon sentences lmao.

Made me chuckle lmao

[nasdadjr]

I don't care about the seed as much as the match up. I saying right now we will not beat Michigan State and want to avoid them as long as possible. I can't believe I'm saying this but I kind of hope we get shipped out west because I feel the match ups will be better out there.

[Xville]

Better seeds win at a higher % in the tournament. I want a 2 seed.

This doesn't mean diddly do to me. If xavier gets a 2, it doesn't make their chances of winning any higher than if they are a three. More important is where and what matchups. 2 or 3 to me doesn't matter.

[D-West & PO-Z]

This doesn't mean diddly do to me. If xavier gets a 2, it doesn't make their chances of winning any higher than if they are a three. More important is where and what matchups. 2 or 3 to me doesn't matter.

Yes it actually does make their chances higher. Remember when people were saying the same thing about difference between 1 and 2 seed? 1 seeds had a 17% better chance to win their second round game and 10% better chance of winning 3rd round game (which is actually higher when you account for their higer %'s in the first 2 rounds).

I will have to look it up see exact numbers.

I agree matchups are important but you get better opportunity to win when you are a higher seed. I'd much rather play a 7/10 seed than a 6 seed. There are going to be some really good 6 seeds this year.

[Xville]

Yes it actually does make their chances higher. Remember when people were saying the same thing about difference between 1 and 2 seed? 1 seeds had a 17% better chance to win their second round game and 10% better chance of winning 3rd round game (which is actually higher when you account for their higer %'s in the first 2 rounds).

I will have to look it up see exact numbers.

I agree matchups are important but you get better opportunity to win when you are a higher seed. I'd much rather play a 7/10 seed than a 6 seed. There are going to be some really good 6 seeds this year.

I know what you are saying but we will just have to agree to diagree here. To me those stats don't mean anything...Xavier doesn't suddenly have a better chance at winning because we are a higher seed, that in itself doesn't matter. If we have a matchup nightmare that is a 7 or 10, that higher percentage of winning isn't going to make me comfortable.

[94GRAD]

This doesn't mean diddly do to me. If xavier gets a 2, it doesn't make their chances of winning any higher than if they are a three. More important is where and what matchups. 2 or 3 to me doesn't matter.

It makes a huge difference.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

[Xville]

It makes a huge difference.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

It really doesnt. In general percentages are higher I get that, but for Xavier much more important is who the 1, 2 or 3 would be and where the game is being played. All that site shows is a general trend. Past percentages have no bearing on what happens to xavier this year...this isn't a math equation, it's basketball and 18-21 year olds.

[JTG]

I believe Oklahoma will be allowed two losses in the dance. If they get a 2 seed and X doesn't I will puke. VD would be an awesome 2nd rd game.

You dont want someone you've already played, esp . with the 1-3-1,Prefer teams that are unfamiliar with you.

[94GRAD]

It really doesnt. In general percentages are higher I get that, but for Xavier much more important is who the 1, 2 or 3 would be and where the game is being played. All that site shows is a general trend. Past percentages have no bearing on what happens to xavier this year...this isn't a math equation, it's basketball and 18-21 year olds.

The higher your seed, the worse competition you play. Pretty simple.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I know what you are saying but we will just have to agree to diagree here. To me those stats don't mean anything...Xavier doesn't suddenly have a better chance at winning because we are a higher seed, that in itself doesn't matter. If we have a matchup nightmare that is a 7 or 10, that higher percentage of winning isn't going to make me comfortable.

Yeah definitely agree to disagree. I usually like to be on the right side of facts. Maybe I just dont understand your argument?

[D-West & PO-Z]

It really doesnt. In general percentages are higher I get that, but for Xavier much more important is who the 1, 2 or 3 would be and where the game is being played. All that site shows is a general trend. Past percentages have no bearing on what happens to xavier this year...this isn't a math equation, it's basketball and 18-21 year olds.

I really disagree with where games being played matters more than seeding.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It makes a huge difference.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

Yeah this is the site I got my 1 vs 2 seed stats from, thanks for posting.

Right away in the first round 2 seeds have an 11% better chance moving on to the 2nd round.

2 seeds have a 7.5% better chance winning in 2nd round.

I dont understand how that doesnt make our chances of winning higher? That is 124 years of stats.

[Xville]

I really disagree with where games being played matters more than seeding.

Well, I guess what I mean by that is who else is there so really just matchups. In other words, I don't want to see kentucky...mainly because it turns into a home game where ever they play and it's a huge advantage for them. That's the kind of thing I'm getting at.

Also, I think it's important we have a large contingent of fans cheering our team on...we would get a bigger fan base in the south or Midwest region than we would in the other two. I realize I'm getting ahead of myself because I'm talking about louisville or chicago, but expectations this year are at the least playing the second weekend.

[HenryMuto]

Well I am guessing X will either be 8 or 9 on the S-Curve so either the last 2 or the fist 3 though you never know if the committee would push Miami or Utah ahead of X.

If Oregon is a 1 then X could get shipped West depends on how it all falls out for the top 16 teams because Big 12 and ACC teams ect can't be in the same region. If Oregon is a 2 in the West then X will not go out West since Oregon would take that spot.

50/50 on if the committee will reward X's entire regular season and give them a 2 seed or will they give it to West Virginia which is the only team I could see getting it besides X for last 2.

Kansas and North Carolina look like locks for 1 seeds then Michigan State, Virginia, Oregon, Villanova will be 1/2's then Oklahoma another 2.

That's my take.

I am a Kentucky and Xavier fan so I just hope both are not in the region so both have a shot to get to the Final 4.

[paulxu]

KPI updated at 3 PM today. Has us as the second #2 seed. I like it.
A little wanky on some of the seeds, but he was right about the top 8 teams last year being the top 8.
So I hope we hang on.

http://www.kpisports.net/rankings/kpibasketball/

[Musketeer15]

What teams are the best and worst matchups for X on the 1-3 line?

[D-West & PO-Z]

I wouldnt be 100% surprised to maybe see Oklahoma fall off the 2 line. I know it isnt official stat but they've lost 5 of their last 12 I believe. Although the have had a really tough schedule.

I feel good, I think X gets a 2 seed. Hopefully we avoid KU as the 1 seed, next I'd like to avoid UNC. Any way you slice it though we will have to beat some very good teams to make it to the Final 4!

[paulxu]

Connecticut is always interesting. Screws around all year; finishes 6th in the 11 team sort of average Ack, and around the middle of March starts playing like crazy.

[XUGRAD80]

A lot of the discussion about which is better.....low 2 seed, high 3 seed, or which region is better based on who else might be there, is forgetting one thing....

The seeds are not what decides the winners and losers, nor do any mathematical percentages. There is no guarantee that X will play anyone other than their next opponent (whoever that might be). I am much more interested to see who, when, and where they play the NEXT game than I am about any seed they might get, or who is in the opposite side of the bracket. How many higher seeded or "name" teams have made the mistake of overlooking X in the past, to their detriment? Win and advance....lose and go home. That is all.

[Masterofreality]

David West's Senior Year, Xavier was a 3 seed. Did not get past the first weekend.

#Matchups

[XUFan09]

Well, I guess what I mean by that is who else is there so really just matchups. In other words, I don't want to see kentucky...mainly because it turns into a home game where ever they play and it's a huge advantage for them. That's the kind of thing I'm getting at.

Also, I think it's important we have a large contingent of fans cheering our team on...we would get a bigger fan base in the south or Midwest region than we would in the other two. I realize I'm getting ahead of myself because I'm talking about louisville or chicago, but expectations this year are at the least playing the second weekend.
Being on the wrong side of pseudo-homecourt advantages or on the wrong side of matchups is equally likely across most seedings. I would want Xavier to avoid UK in the Sweet 16, but there are plenty of other matchups at that point or before that would be unfortunate.

Really, the only consistently correlated thing across the different seed lines is the quality of opponent. If Xavier is going to face a bad matchup, I'd rather the opponent be a little lower quality.

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[Michigan Muskie]

I think a lot of people want to see X on the 2 line because adds credibility to the program. I'll admit I'm one of those people. I want the millions and millions of people filling out their brackets this week to see "2 Xavier" on their sheets. A 3 seed is great, but hey, been there done that.

Now bringing that perspective inside, of course I just want as many favorable matchups as possible. When four teams advance to Houston, nobody will give a rats arse if there's a 2 or a 3 next to their names. I just want X to be one of those four.

But a 2 would be cool. Half as cool as a 1. One-third better than a 3.

[nasdadjr]

What teams are the best and worst matchups for X on the 1-3 line?

Easy one here
Best match ups- Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia, Miami,

Worst match ups- MSU, Kansas, UNC, Purdue

I prolly forgot a couple teams but this is generally it. If I didn't mention someone it's because I feel it's a 50 50 game

[vee4xu]

Does anyone know which section is going to be the X section if they play in St. Louis?

[mid major]

Easy one here
Best match ups- Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia, Miami,

Worst match ups- MSU, Kansas, UNC, Purdue

I prolly forgot a couple teams but this is generally it. If I didn't mention someone it's because I feel it's a 50 50 game

Bring on Purdue. I'll take Mack over Painter on Mack's worst day.

[Xavier]

Yeah Purdue doesn't concern me one bit. Wouldn't want Oklahoma- just hate when one guy can completely take over.

[mid major]

David West's Senior Year, Xavier was a 3 seed. Did not get past the first weekend.

#Matchups

MOR, Maryland was way under-seeded as a 6th that year.

[Blue Blooded-05]

Has Xavier ever been one of the teams that gets their reaction filmed during the selection show?

[Caveat]

I doubt X and Nova both get a 2. Probably means X down to the 3 line.

[Perma Fro]

Has Xavier ever been one of the teams that gets their reaction filmed during the selection show?

I would say no because of the debacle in 1988

[D-West & PO-Z]

I doubt X and Nova both get a 2. Probably means X down to the 3 line.

I'm feeling 2 seed still.

[Blue Blooded-05]

I would say no because of the debacle in 1988

I don't go back that far (in X fandom, not life)... What happened in 1988?

[LA Muskie]

I'm feeling 2 seed still.

Miami at #3 certainly helps!

But it won't be in the midwest. That will be MSU. So it's either the east or the west.

I'm curious who bumped Nova out of the east. It almost certainly is not us. So I'm thinking it might be WVU at #2 in east.

That leaves either us or OK in the west.

At this point I'm thinking we are a 3 seed in the Midwest.




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[LA Muskie]

Incidentally, if one needs proof that KenPom is only one of many metrics considered, Wichita St is #12 (11 if you eliminate Louisville) and only got in via the First Four.


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[XUFan09]

Incidentally, if one needs proof that KenPom is only one of many metrics considered, Wichita St is #12 (11 if you eliminate Louisville) and only got in via the First Four.


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Yup. I know those blog posts weren't entirely serious, but it's still what annoyed me about Banners on the Parkway's Kenpom Bracketology.

[Xville]

Why is Kansas in the south and Virginia in the midwest? That makes absolutely no sense.

[Perma Fro]

I don't go back that far (in X fandom, not life)... What happened in 1988?

That was the year X was placed in Omaha when some thought they would be playing in Cincy. Long story short, big party at the University Center with team and students. After the announcement Jamal Walker and several other players were yapping and some said something to the effect of "where is Omaha?" And "who is Kansas?" That was the last known time that the team had a public party.

[jhelmes37]

A couple years ago the team was filmed at Chris Mack's house. Can't remember which year.

[X-band '01]

Why is Kansas in the south and Virginia in the midwest? That makes absolutely no sense.

My understanding is that the South is the Big 12's "natural" region according to the NCAA Selection Committee. With Carolina already claiming the East and Oregon the West, that left UVa with the Midwest region and their annual matchup with Michigan State.