2/29 Bracketology

[drudy23]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Now this would be interesting...bleed into a 2nd round with UC or Dayton, and then bleed into West Virginia or Arizona. Don't tell me he didn't do this on purpose.

The location is great...but something tells me meeting UC or UD in the tourney would be bad news.

[XMuskieFTW]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Now this would be interesting...bleed into a 2nd round with UC or Dayton, and then bleed into West Virginia or Arizona. Don't tell me he didn't do this on purpose.

The location is great...but something tells me meeting UC or UD in the tourney would be bad news.

How would a 45 point win be bad news?

[xudash]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Now this would be interesting...bleed into a 2nd round with UC or Dayton, and then bleed into West Virginia or Arizona. Don't tell me he didn't do this on purpose.

The location is great...but something tells me meeting UC or UD in the tourney would be bad news.

We would kill them both.

At any rate, this appears to be Lunardi shooting for some fan reaction from the Southwest corner of Ohio.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

He is trolling here like he does week in week out. The takeaway from his bracket is that we are a #2 seed right now.


We would kill them both.

At any rate, this appears to be Lunardi shooting for some fan reaction from the Southwest corner of Ohio.

[XUMIOH12]

we love making new threads for stuff that was already posted!

[letskeepitreal]

I don't like this bracket but do not fear UC or UD. The problematic one in my mind would be West Virginia with their high pressure defense. I would rather play Arizona

[Xavier]

I think I would like WV as a 3 seed and Virginia as 1 seed (If X is a 2). I think our offense is good enough to score against good D and both of them are not good offensive teams that the 1-3-1 will really give fits. (Honestly, they could be good offensive teams I am going off reputation alone).

Really, the 1-3-1 will do wonders in the tournament against almost everyone. Not easy to prepare for it.

[zanesxu]

What projected 3-4 seeds would you most like to avoid?
Maryland, Iowa State, UK, Duke, West Virginia, Utah, Iowa, Oregon...

Think we'd match up well with Iowa, Oregon, Utah... and West Virginia... we've shown ability to get out of presses when we're focused, and I like our length vs. a pretty small team...

[TUclutch]

we love making new threads for stuff that was already posted!

I was gonna say this too. Way to many threads being started recently when there are already threads on that topic

[XUMIOH12]

I was gonna say this too. Way to many threads being started recently when there are already threads on that topic

you should have started a new thread to say it.

[drudy23]

Where is the other Bracketology thread? If it's not on the first page, I ain't searching for it.

[xu82]

Where is the other Bracketology thread? If it's not on the first page, I ain't searching for it.

This one's on the first page, so here I am!

OK, you can all tell me I'm an idiot for this (why should this be different?), but I don't mind not being a 1 seed. I KNOW that being a 1 seed is the easiest path to winning it all, but I also feel that if a 1 doesn't reach the Final Four it's a let down. A failure compared to expectations. I like when we go farther than expected. I don't want to be a 1 seed and get knocked out in the Sweet 16 and hear "I told you they were imposters". For me, I hope Nova and all BE teams over-perform as well. I want the entire league to kick ass. This year seems like a jumble and I'm not sure what teams to fear the most, so maybe this seeding conundrum is more true than ever. I do like the respect of a high seed, but.....I'd rather earn it on the court and hear how surprisingly strong we are. Maybe with enough therapy.....

[GoMuskies]

So........you want to sneak up on people?

[bobbiemcgee]

1,2, 3 whatever it takes...

[xu82]

So........you want to sneak up on people?

Sneaking up is one way to look at it, not being set up for disappointment is another. I'd rather exceed eXpectations, and I'm not sure about seeding this year. Some 14's might be more dangerous than some 10's. Don't get me wrong, a 1 seed would be great, but not essential to my (warped sense of) happiness. But this could very well be a different kind of year....

[xu82]

1,2, 3 whatever it takes...

That's a less wordy way of saying it.

Can you sense my inner turmoil?

[GoMuskies]

Not wanting a 1 seed to "avoid disappointment" is definitely a weird kind of sickness.

[xu82]

Not wanting a 1 seed to "avoid disappointment" is definitely a weird kind of sickness.



Oh, you have no idea! Actually though, what I said is "I don't mind not being a 1 seed". I'd certainly love to be a 1 seed, but I'm happy if we are a 2 or a 3 as well. I guess I'm just happy regardless, as long as we advance. Advancing is all that matters to me. I don't care where we come from, I'm far more concerned about where we end up. Admittedly, being a 1 seed gives you an easier path, in theory. Beating Nova should have helped us move up in seeking a 1 seed, but it also may have cost us our best shot at the next game. It's all about peaking at the right time, regardless of seed. Just win and advance from wherever you start against any team that lines up across from you.

I hear people saying there are no GREAT teams and there are 20 or so teams that could make the Final Four. If that's really the case, being a 1 makes you less of a favorite than usual.

I'm not promising this makes sense!

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Minus being in Kansas' region I would love this draw. ND/St Mary's 7/10 seeds. IU and Zona the 3 and the 6. Duke and Iowa the 4 and the 5. I think we'd have a good path to the Elite 8 and would have to hope someone knocked KU off. If they dont we could but they are the 1 seed I'd like to avoid most.

[Xville]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Minus being in Kansas' region I would love this draw. ND/St Mary's 7/10 seeds. IU and Zona the 3 and the 6. Duke and Iowa the 4 and the 5. I think we'd have a good path to the Elite 8 and would have to hope someone knocked KU off. If they dont we could but they are the 1 seed I'd like to avoid most.

Not a terrible draw but I don't want to see UNC or KU in our region. Those are the two teams I'm worried about when it comes to playing Xavier. Not saying we wouldn't have a chance but those teams both have things that would exploit our weaknesses in a big way.

[XMuskieFTW]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Minus being in Kansas' region I would love this draw. ND/St Mary's 7/10 seeds. IU and Zona the 3 and the 6. Duke and Iowa the 4 and the 5. I think we'd have a good path to the Elite 8 and would have to hope someone knocked KU off. If they dont we could but they are the 1 seed I'd like to avoid most.

Interesting that UC losing by double digits to Houston last night didn't move UC at all.

[bobbiemcgee]

Wichita State is a weird case this yr. 1 top 50 win but bracketmatrix has them from a 6 seed to out. Bid stealer?

[Muskie]

If I'm reading that bracket right, UD would also be in St. Louis.

[smileyy]

Wichita State is a weird case this yr. 1 top 50 win but bracketmatrix has them from a 6 seed to out. Bid stealer?

They would be the lowest ever KenPom team to be left out. They're #11 now, IIRC. I'd be pretty surprised if they were left out. They have enough of a resume.

[XUMIOH12]

They would be the lowest ever KenPom team to be left out. They're #11 now, IIRC. I'd be pretty surprised if they were left out. They have enough of a resume.

its really gonna come down to how much the committee values the advanced metrics vs the more traditional ones

[GetUp5]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Minus being in Kansas' region I would love this draw. ND/St Mary's 7/10 seeds. IU and Zona the 3 and the 6. Duke and Iowa the 4 and the 5. I think we'd have a good path to the Elite 8 and would have to hope someone knocked KU off. If they dont we could but they are the 1 seed I'd like to avoid most.

You clearly haven't seen IU play lately. I want no part of Yogi Ferrell or those shooters in the tournament.

[XUMIOH12]

You clearly haven't seen IU play lately. I want no part of Yogi Ferrell or those shooters in the tournament.

yeah they have been sizzling hot lately, and seem to be peaking at the right time.

[bourbonman]

Hoping for a 2 seed in that draws into playing S-16 in Louisville. Bourbon everywhere!

[drudy23]

yeah they have been sizzling hot lately, and seem to be peaking at the right time.

Which means nothing...obviously you want to be playing well, because it's better than playing not well. But previous games have no bearing on future games.

[xubrew]

I actually find it comical how often people say "You don't want to see X-team in March." Everyone in the tournament is relatively good, and the vast majority of the teams who make the Sweet Sixteen had to beat a ranked team on a neutral floor to get there.

Now, having said that, I really don't want to see Wisconsin on the round of 32. I'd much rather play IU than Wiscy. If we had to rely on the 1-3-1 against Wiscy, we may be in just a tad bit of trouble.

They're probably getting a #6 or #7 seed because that's what their profile indicates due to three really bad early season losses. In reality, they're currently playing like a protected seed. They've won at Maryland and at Iowa, and although they lost their last game, it was on the road to Purdue, which isn't exactly the easiest place to get a win. It's a team that is playing really well, and that I don't think we match up well against.

So, to repeat what is overstated more than perhaps anything else, I don't want to see Wisconsin in March.

[smileyy]

Well, if they say "You don't want to see X in March." then that's certainly true :D

[AviatorX]

I actually find it comical how often people say "You don't want to see X-team in March." Everyone in the tournament is relatively good, and the vast majority of the teams who make the Sweet Sixteen had to beat a ranked team on a neutral floor to get there.

Now, having said that, I really don't want to see Wisconsin on the round of 32. I'd much rather play IU than Wiscy. If we had to rely on the 1-3-1 against Wiscy, we may be in just a tad bit of trouble.

They're probably getting a #6 or #7 seed because that's what their profile indicates due to three really bad early season losses. In reality, they're currently playing like a protected seed. They've won at Maryland and at Iowa, and although they lost their last game, it was on the road to Purdue, which isn't exactly the easiest place to get a win. It's a team that is playing really well, and that I don't think we match up well against.

So, to repeat what is overstated more than perhaps anything else, I don't want to see Wisconsin in March.

What would you think about a matchup with IU? I follow both teams, and I really think it would be a crazy game -- both teams (one would imagine) would really be able to capitalize on the other's weakness: X would pound IU down low with Farr/Reynolds for sure, but to me Yogi/Johnson penetrating against X's man-to-man and kicking to those shooters is scary.

[drudy23]

Our depth is better than 90% of the field...I like our chances against anyone.

It's tough to win 6 in a row...but there's not a team we can't beat.

[xubrew]

What would you think about a matchup with IU? I follow both teams, and I really think it would be a crazy game -- both teams (one would imagine) would really be able to capitalize on the other's weakness: X would pound IU down low with Farr/Reynolds for sure, but to me Yogi/Johnson penetrating against X's man-to-man and kicking to those shooters is scary.

IU doesn't scare me as much as Wiscy does. I think it would be high scoring because, like you said, both teams would have trouble stopping the other one.

[XUFan09]

IU doesn't scare me as much as Wiscy does. I think it would be high scoring because, like you said, both teams would have trouble stopping the other one.

Yeah, IU vs. Xavier would be high scoring for sure. I think in the end, Xavier would win because they'd win the battle of the boards. IU is a good offensive rebounding team, but my impression is that when good offensive rebounding teams and good defensive rebounding teams face off, the good defensive rebounding team wins out (e.g. Xavier not getting many offensive boards against Creighton). Regardless of whether that impression is true, Xavier is much better at offensive rebounding than IU is at defensive rebounding.

I haven't watched Wisconsin much at all this year, so I can't really say how much better they're playing now, but they have a top 25 defense and a top 50 offense. Since I haven't really seen them play consistently, I'm just going off these stats to make some inferences. Those who have seen them play should be able to better match up these inferences with reality. They are good at keeping teams off the three-point line (which actually might be a much better mark of three-point defense than shooting percentages (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents _3p)) and they are good at hindering teams' accuracy inside the arc. This probably means they force a lot of mid-range jump shots. Considering that we have a few guys (Trevon, Sumner, Abell) who seem to like taking bad mid-range shots (especially Trevon), this matchup could be a recipe for a bad offensive outing. That is, unless Xavier does a particularly good job on the offensive glass, which is definitely within the realm of possibility against a defensive rebounding squad just outside the top 100.

[xubrew]

I like Joe Lunardi. I really do. Beyond him being able to read a team sheet I find him to be smart, insightful, and passionate about the game. I think what he does makes the game much more popular and much more enjoyable for a lot of people because they're able look at his brackets and get a general idea of how good a team is, and how important certain games are, and for what reasons.

Now, having said that, I don't understand why he insists on believing that the actual selection committee does not consider the conference championship games that are played on Sunday. He says they don't because they're not over until late in the afternoon.

The committee does consider them. They have the teams ranked 1-68, and they have contingencies based on what all of the possible outcomes are. They have software that basically allows them to build the brackets rather quickly. I remember two years ago hearing that they had eight different brackets to take into account all of the possible Sunday outcomes.

[xukeith]

I like Joe Lunardi. I really do. Beyond him being able to read a team sheet I find him to be smart, insightful, and passionate about the game. I think what he does makes the game much more popular and much more enjoyable for a lot of people because they're able look at his brackets and get a general idea of how good a team is, and how important certain games are, and for what reasons.

Now, having said that, I don't understand why he insists on believing that the actual selection committee does not consider the conference championship games that are played on Sunday. He says they don't because they're not over until late in the afternoon.

The committee does consider them. They have the teams ranked 1-68, and they have contingencies based on what all of the possible outcomes are. They have software that basically allows them to build the brackets rather quickly. I remember two years ago hearing that they had eight different brackets to take into account all of the possible Sunday outcomes.


True. The selection committee has a variety of seeds and selections prepared based on outcomes of Sunday's tourney games.
At least they have always said they do.