X 9.5 favorite over Providence

[skyking]

Pretty comfortable margin.

[RealDeal]

Seems high.

[Xtemporaneous]

They'll cover.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

Cooley can coach against us and Bentil/Dunn are studs. This will be a tough game.


They'll cover.

[zanesxu]

Agreed the line seems high, but it's not crazy... 14 of our 22 wins by 10 or more points... KenPom has us winning by 10... odds makers likely trying to get some east coast action for the cover...

[Cheesehead]

I have us 83-73 in pick the score but I have been pretty crappy this season w/ this.

[bjf123]

If I was a betting man, I'd take Providence and the points.


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[D-West & PO-Z]

Seems high.

Yeah, it does, which makes me think X is a lock to cover. Vegas is usually pretty smart, especially when it looks fishy.

[Xville]

Providence is a solid team, but it's a team we should beat at home with little issues. We need to go 2-0 this week with next week being much tougher games.

[GoMuskies]

I'm not sure it looks particularly fishy. If you look at Sagarin Predictor, it has Xavier winning by 9.09 points.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm not sure it looks particularly fishy. If you look at Sagarin Predictor, it has Xavier winning by 9.09 points.

Yeah true, I thought it looked a little high but probably not off base.

[xukeith]

How does X beat Hoyas on road when they creamed us at our Cintas?
I hoep X plays defense like @Butler the rest of the year.
Oh and WAKE up Jalen!!!!!! Stop fouling so early!

[X-band '01]

How does X beat Hoyas on road when they creamed us at our Cintas?
I hoep X plays defense like @Butler the rest of the year.
Oh and WAKE up Jalen!!!!!! Stop fouling so early!

Emp, someone's posting about Georgetown instead of Providence!

#OneGameAtATimePeople

[GetUp5]

This line is pretty much right where it was expected to be and also highlights how ridiculous and irrelevant the polls are.

If anyone has an extra 10-15 minutes, take a stroll over to kenpom.com and look at their game projections. The Vegas lines and power rankings have been eerily similar to kenpom this year.

According to kenpom, Xavier is the 17th ranked team in the country and Providence is 57th. The game is at Xavier. Figure on a neutral court #17 is favored by about 4.5-6 points over #57 and then factor in the home court advantage for X. You're right around a 9.5 point line. Just for reference, Stony Brook, Hawaii and Yale are all ranked above Providence, who has quite possibly been the most overrated team in the polls all season.

[94GRAD]

How does X beat Hoyas on road when they creamed us at our Cintas?
I hoep X plays defense like @Butler the rest of the year.
Oh and WAKE up Jalen!!!!!! Stop fouling so early!

*By scoring more points than them.

[letskeepitreal]

According to kenpom, Xavier is the 17th ranked team in the country and Providence is 57th. The game is at Xavier. Figure on a neutral court #17 is favored by about 4.5-6 points over #57 and then factor in the homecourt advantage for X. You're right around a 9.5 point line. Just for reference, Stony Brook, Hawaii and Yale are all ranked about Providence, who has quite possibly been the most overrated team in the polls all season.[/QUOTE]


this is kinda ridiculous. We're the 17th best team in the country? I think the spread is a little high given that Providence is struggling and they will have to bring it. If I was a betting man, I would take the points but hope that we cover

[xufan2434]

How does X beat Hoyas on road when they creamed us at our Cintas?
I hoep X plays defense like @Butler the rest of the year.
Oh and WAKE up Jalen!!!!!! Stop fouling so early!

In his defense, I thought he got screwed in the Butler game. 2 of his fouls were not good calls and a 3rd came after getting an offensive board and fighting for a loose ball. Kind of unlucky. When he was in there, I thought he was very effective. Need to keep building on that

[GetUp5]

It isn't ridiculous or my opinion. It's the Kenpom rankings... That Vegas chooses to follow very closely.

Vegas makes a lot of money because people bet thinking Providence will 'have to bring it' when in all reality they just aren't that good.

Are you going to be surprised when "13th ranked" Dayton is a 4-5 point dog tomorrow to "unranked" St. Joe's?

[SemajParlor]

It isn't ridiculous or my opinion. It's the Kenpom rankings... That Vegas chooses to follow very closely.

Vegas has full proof algorithms of their own that most likely put Pomeroy to shame.

[GoMuskies]

Vegas has full proof algorithms of their own that most likely put Pomeroy to shame.

This is certainly true, but KenPom and Sagarin Predictor are good shortcuts if you want to know what a line is going to be before it comes out.

[chico]

This is certainly true, but KenPom and Sagarin Predictor are good shortcuts if you want to know what a line is going to be before it comes out.


And more often than not (actually more than that) KenPom and Sagarin are within a point or two at most of the opening Vegas line.

[XUFan09]

I've actually seen some betting sites with forum threads tracking Vegas vs. Kenpom on a season to see which wins overall. The big edge that Vegas has is knowledge about injuries, chemistry issues, etc. Things that Kenpom and Sagarin's models don't cover

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[SemajParlor]

Oh for sure . I remember following Pomeroy when he was relatively unknown and before you had to pay for his entire site - a ken pom hipster of sorts. I'm not familiar with Sagarin as much.

Speaking of the good old college hoop days, anyone use to read Street and Smith preseason magazine for CBB? Not even sure if it's still published but I used to read it every year. Really great product.

[SemajParlor]

I've actually seen some betting sites with forum threads tracking Vegas vs. Kenpom on a season to see which wins overall. The big edge that Vegas has is knowledge about injuries, chemistry issues, etc. Things that Kenpom and Sagarin's models don't cover

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Interesting. I would love to see the results. I know someone who created a pretty decent model for tracking NBA trends the last few years and has done relatively ok when using it. Obviously not near the levels of sophistication the others entail , but you'd be surprised how successful you can be over time based on identifying a few key variables.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm seeing -8 now.

[Emp]

Emp, someone's posting about Georgetown instead of Providence!

#OneGameAtATimePeople

Stoolie! You've been deputized, keep up the good work. Can't rep, you know why.

The betting public liked the 9 point, and it liked the 0ver at 146. I'd still take the Friars at +7 and certainly the Under at 149.

[GIMMFD]

I'm seeing -8 now.

Wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to around -6 by tip.

[XUFan09]

Stoolie! You've been deputized, keep up the good work. Can't rep, you know why.

The betting public liked the 9 point, and it liked the 0ver at 146. I'd still take the Friars at +7 and certainly the Under at 149.
I like the under. Providence is a good defensive team with a limited offense.

Edit: I guess the hang up would be if Xavier goes on an offensive rebounding tear, or if a Providence role player gets hot.

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[kellernr]

X - 83
Providence - 75

[XUFan09]

X - 83
Providence - 75
Wrong thread. You want the Pick the Score thread.

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[ammtd34]

Speaking of the good old college hoop days, anyone use to read Street and Smith preseason magazine for CBB? Not even sure if it's still published but I used to read it every year. Really great product.

Yes. I bought it from myself every year during my school's magazine sale. It used to be one of the only ways to get recruiting rankings.

[bleedXblue]

Providence has to be hard to bet on/against this year. I could see a nail biter....or a 20 pt win tonight.

[X-band '01]

I like the under. Providence is a good defensive team with a limited offense.

Edit: I guess the hang up would be if Xavier goes on an offensive rebounding tear, or if a Providence role player gets hot.

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I'd probably say Bullock or Fazekas would be such a role player; what scares me is that Providence is overdue for a consistent 40 minutes after their hellish game at DePaul.

[GetUp5]

I'd probably say Bullock or Fazekas would be such a role player; what scares me is that Providence is overdue for a consistent 40 minutes after their hellish game at DePaul.

That was over 2 weeks ago. And they've lost 2 of 3 since.

They're not overdue, they're just not very good.

[XUMIOH12]

Pretty comfortable margin.

unless if you actually bet on the game, who cares.

[waggy]

unless if you actually bet on the game, who cares.


It appears that margin of victory is a bigger part of how teams are perceived and ranked. I'm not a proponent of it, but it's going to bleed over into tournament seeding this year as much as ever imo.

I think the various persons doing the rankings should put a cap on margin of victory. That'll never happen with the true gambling sites, but anyone that the NCAA committee officially uses, should have a cap I think.

[bjf123]

Providence has to be hard to bet on/against this year. I could see a nail biter....or a 20 pt win tonight.

Yep. And whichever way I go in the pick the score thread. It will end up being the other.


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[xu82]

Yep. And whichever way I go in the pick the score thread. It will end up being the other.


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GO WITH THE NAIL BITER! (Please)

[D-West & PO-Z]

Where I saw 8 is back up to 9.

[powerofX]

What's crazy about x this year is that win or lose no game closer than 7. No last second shots!

[XUMIOH12]

It appears that margin of victory is a bigger part of how teams are perceived and ranked. I'm not a proponent of it, but it's going to bleed over into tournament seeding this year as much as ever imo.

I think the various persons doing the rankings should put a cap on margin of victory. That'll never happen with the true gambling sites, but anyone that the NCAA committee officially uses, should have a cap I think.

i meant who cares about what the spread is set at unless if you are betting on the game.

It's nice to have a good margin of victory in wins because it looks good to the numbers and committee, but unless if you are betting i think its pointless to talk about the spread before the game.

[xu82]

i meant who cares about what the spread is set at unless if you are betting on the game.

It's nice to have a good margin of victory in wins because it looks good to the numbers and committee, but unless if you are betting i think its pointless to talk about the spread before the game.

I dont' gamble, but I often enjoy knowing what serious and informed people think about a possible outcome. No one is more serious than the people wagering their own dollars. (Yes, fools are everywhere, but you get it....)

[GoMuskies]

I wagered 55 of my favorite American dollars on the outcome of the game. Xavier -8.

[xu82]

I wagered 55 of my favorite American dollars on the outcome of the game. Xavier -8.

I believe dollars are like children, you should favor them all equally.

However, with this knowledge I will be looking out for you and your outcome. Which is free to me.

[MADXSTER]

I believe dollars are like children, you should favor them all equally.
However, with this knowledge I will be looking out for you and your outcome. Which is free to me.

BullCrap!! I love all my children equally. But I love them more if they WIN! Because winners represent Xavier and losers represent _ayton!!!

[xu82]

BullCrap!! I love all my children equally. But I love them more if they WIN! Because winners represent Xavier and losers represent _ayton!!!

That's awesome! I did say "should", so it's pretty much optional, I guess.

(But you might want to start reserving some of your favorite dollars for therapy. Just sayin' :happy:)

[paulxu]

Nice cover Go.

[GoMuskies]

Nice cover Go.

Thanks. I love it when my dollars have babies.

[Xtemporaneous]

Shoulda laid some scratch on this one I knew they'd cover against PC. But that Fazekas kid at the end started to scare me.