First Place Votes?

[Steve A]

Six AP voters had X ranked third last week behind Oklahoma and UNC last week. With both teams losing this week (UNC twice), any chance X pulls in a few first place votes this week for the second time in school history?

[SkyWalker]

May I ask when was the first time?

[GoMuskies]

May I ask when was the first time?

1998 season. We started out just murdering people and got a first place vote. Then we lost at Miami...

[LA Muskie]

Six AP voters had X ranked third last week behind Oklahoma and UNC last week. With both teams losing this week (UNC twice), any chance X pulls in a few first place votes this week for the second time in school history?

It's always possible. AP voters are an interesting lot. But I think Nova will be a pretty consensus #1 after this week's results. Maryland may grab a few from lazy writers who give them credit for being in a "power conference". Maybe a moron Midwest voter or two will vote for Iowa because, well, they are from the Midwest.


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[bobbiemcgee]

"Nova may be #1

[LA Muskie]

Nova damn well better be #1. Frankly it would be absurd if they aren't unanimous. But they won't be.


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[GoMuskies]

But forget #1 votes. Xavier is 4 wins away from BEING #1.

Took a closer look at the schedule. I guess we're actually 6 wins away from #1. And we'd damn well deserve it at that point!

[LA Muskie]

Could be as few as 2. And 5 more (in a row) would virtually guarantee it.


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[xukeith]

Best case scenario is X at 4 this week.

Beating CU and GU will have X at 3.

Villanova will be #2 or #1. Should be #1.

X may have 2 first place votes.

[GoMuskies]

Iowa still has to play tomorrow, so you never know.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

We should've been 4 this week if we were we could be up to 2. I think we will be 4 though maybe 3

[XMuskieFTW]

No way we get number 1 votes. We didn't look particularly exceptional this week.

[xubrew]

Nova damn well better be #1. Frankly it would be absurd if they aren't unanimous. But they won't be.


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I think Nova will be #1 in the polls because of Oklahoma losing. But, the selection committee would probably still have Oklahoma as the overall #1 seed. they look at the entire season, and not just who had the most recent loss. Oklahoma did beat Villanova's brains in on a neutral floor. I don't think it's absurd to think Oklahoma is better than Nova.

[GoMuskies]

Losing by double digits at K-State is pretty absurd for a team that's supposed to be #1, though.

[xubrew]

Oklahoma should have won, but K State is a bit of a home court hero. They've only lost two home games, and one in overtime to West Virginia.

I'm almost certain the selection committee would still have Oklahoma ahead of Villanova even if the polls don't (which, they won't). I don't think it's absurd for someone to vote them ahead of Villanova even though they lost. I don't think it's absurd to vote them behind Villanova either, but a logical argument could be made that Oklahoma still belong ahead of them. Nova will still be #1 in the polls, but I can see why someone would still vote Oklahoma #1, and don't believe it to be absurd for them to do so.

[letskeepitreal]

I think we'll be #5 this week on the AP poll. UNC will slip after the two losses. Villanova #1?. Will move up one more if Iowa loses tomorrow

[LA Muskie]

Brew, to be clear I don't necessarily disagree (although I personally think Nova looks better right now). But the discussion is who should be ranked #1 and if the method is going to remain consistent then I believe Nova needs to be elevated. I think the method is moronic itself. But that's an argument for another day.


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[xukeith]

VU will be # 1 in one poll and # 2 in another.
Maryland will be #1 in the other.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I'm drunk

[STL_XUfan]

I'm drunk
Then you are qualified to fill out an AP ballot. Who is your pick?

[UCGRAD4X]

I'm drunk


Then you are qualified to fill out an AP ballot. Who is your pick?

Nice!

I often wonder what they are smoking, so this does make some sense.

[Kahns Krazy]

No way we get number 1 votes. We didn't look particularly exceptional this week.

We did compared to the number 1 and 2 teams...

Wins are wins, and not every one of them will be easy. Being the first team in the country to get to 20 wins out of 351 team is by definition exceptional.

[xubrew]

No way we get number 1 votes. We didn't look particularly exceptional this week.

It doesn't matter how we looked. The voters weren't watching.

[bleedXblue]

I think we'll get a few votes, and will come in 3rd or 4th.

Nova deserves #1 and not just b/c they're a Big East team.

They continue to win and impress even without their big man playing.

[X-band '01]

Can we all at least agree to be Illinois fans today?

[OTRMUSKIE]

Parrish has Iowa #1 and Oklahoma 2! WTF?

[bleedXblue]

Parrish has Iowa #1 and Oklahoma 2! WTF?

He's an idiot

[D-West & PO-Z]

He's an idiot

Isnt he the guy that makes fun of the other guys? Will he make fun of himself this week?

[XUFan09]

I think we'll be the first team not receiving first place votes.

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[X-band '01]

If you look at how Iowa is dismantling the Big 10 this year, it's not a stretch to put Iowa #1 right now. Michigan State and Purdue are both potential Top-4 seeds and Iowa already swept them both. Save the ICBMs for Maryland.

[LA Muskie]

He's an idiot

I personally think Nova has earned their shot at the #1, but I don't think Iowa or OK are particular crazy choices.


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[xavierj]

I personally think Nova has earned their shot at the #1, but I don't think Iowa or OK are particular crazy choices.


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I think Xavier should be ranked higher than Iowa with out a doubt. I mean they just have a better overall resume, two less losses, and beat a team they lost to, by 29. I think that is an easy call.

[scoscox]

It's really hard to definitively say one team is better than another at this point. No resume really looks that much better than another. Why not give it to us? We have the fewest losses and are tied for the most top 50 wins. Eventually they'll have to do it.

[LA Muskie]

Look, I wouldn't mind some #1 votes either. But I'm not sure it's that simple.

They have a better SOS than us. They have a better Kenpom than us (2 vs 18). While they've lost 4, two of them were in November. Their worst loss is to Dayton (Kenpom 32) in Orlando in November. They are 12-1 over their last 13 including sweeps of MSU (Kenpom 4) and Purdue (Kenpom 15). Their only conference loss in a tough BiG was on the road to Maryland (KenPom 9). And while they are 5-1 against the Kenpom Top 25 (with 2 true road wins and one neutral site win) we are 0-1.

We may have a better (or at least more balanced) overall resume; but they've won more impressive games and have had slightly more success recently.


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[xu82]

Don't get me wrong - this is all great fun. But I am FAR more interested in the selection committee and seeding (and not being disappointed early come Tourney Time) than I am in the polls. Not a dig against 'Nova, but I would HATE to be a 1 or 2 seed and flame out early. I hope it's not too early to expose my deepest fear?

[toledodan]

1998 season. We started out just murdering people and got a first place vote. Then we lost at Miami...

God i remember that day. cheerleader accidently flashed us at the game. wasn't a total loss:laugh:

[toledodan]

If you look at how Iowa is dismantling the Big 10 this year, it's not a stretch to put Iowa #1 right now. Michigan State and Purdue are both potential Top-4 seeds and Iowa already swept them both. Save the ICBMs for Maryland.

Iowa lost to VD. i don't care who they beat:lmao:

[XUFan09]

Don't get me wrong - this is all great fun. But I am FAR more interested in the selection committee and seeding (and not being disappointed early come Tourney Time) than I am in the polls. Not a dig against 'Nova, but I would HATE to be a 1 or 2 seed and flame out early. I hope it's not too early to expose my deepest fear?
I think if the tournament were to start tomorrow, the 1 seeds would be Oklahoma, Iowa, Villanova, and Xavier, with Xavier being the last one. Of course, the tournament doesn't start tomorrow, so the question then is what would constitute "holding steady."

1) Beating Villanova (absolute requirement, IMO)

2a) Only losing one more game until the conference tournament finals against Villanova
2b) Losing two more games but then winning the conference tournament.

These are dependent on other teams, of course, so there might be more leniency or there might be less. One thing I'm confident of, though it's probably a dream: If Xavier and Villanova both win out, save Xavier beating Villanova, and they meet in the conference finals, the winner will be the overall number 1 seed and the loser will also be a 1 seed. Unless Oklahoma/Iowa also win out; then you have your four 1 seeds but I don't know who's #1.


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[toledodan]

the way the season has gone i would hate to be any worse than the top 2 seed playing in st. louis

[XUFan09]

the way the season has gone i would hate to be any worse than the top 2 seed playing in st. louis
Yeah, when the non-conference schedule was over, some people were like, "Maybe we can snag a top 4 seed line!" I found that incredibly underwhelming as a goal. A protected seed was a minimum expectation at that point, and a 9-2 conference record later, anything short of a top 2 seed would be disappointing.

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[xubrew]

I personally think Nova has earned their shot at the #1, but I don't think Iowa or OK are particular crazy choices.


This is how I look at it. I personally wouldn't have them #1 either, but if this were debate class and I was assigned to make an argument for Iowa as the overall #1 team I could easily do it. It's not like he picked Maryland, or West Virginia, or Rutgers, or someone completely insane.

The top of Iowa's profile is better than anyone else's. They have four wins against likely protected seeds, and two of those were in true road games. To give you an idea, three of the four #1 seeds from last season had either one or zero true road wins against protected seeds. Two of their losses were road games against likely protected seeds. I think the actual selection committee would have Oklahoma and Iowa as the top two teams if the season ended today. So, Parish may not be in line with the rest of the voters in the polls, but I think he's pretty spot on with how the committee would rank the teams.

[XUFan09]

Gary Parrish makes an effort to not follow the default "next-up" method of ranking.

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[XU '11]

The one wart on our resume (and I'd imagine a small percentage of voters and committee members look at it) is that our computer ratings are very underwhelming. #18 Pomeroy and #15 Sagarin. If I were a pollster, I'd be hesitant to continue to move that team up in the top 5.

[scoscox]

I don't get that. How are we behind some of these teams in kenpom? What have they proved that we haven't in its eyes?

[X-band '01]

Clearly the days are over when the Selection Committee doesn't consider margin of victory. They opened that can of worms when they relied more on KenPom ratings and opened the door for UCLA to get in last year.

[Xville]

Weird to me that people are praising Iowa then discounting Maryland in the same breath. Iowa best Michigan state once without valentine, and the second time valentine was in his second game back and not fully healthy. Maryland has also beaten Purdue just like Iowa, and oh Maryland beat Iowa.

Not saying Iowa isn't good but don't think they are any better than maryland.

[LA Muskie]

I don't get that. How are we behind some of these teams in kenpom? What have they proved that we haven't in its eyes?

1. We have no bad losses but also lack any outstanding wins. As of today our best KenPom win was USC in November. Look at Iowa for example. 5-1 against the KenPom Top 25 (3 away from home). We're 0-1 (Nova).

2. Our defensive efficiency numbers have plummeted rather precipitously since the GTown game. At the time of that game we were top 10 defensively. We're currently at 47.

PS: But I don't think anyone would advocate exclusively looking at KenPom. It's just one of many metrics -- and it's heavily weighted toward margin of victory (or, more accurately, relative margin) by virtue of its micro-focus on per-possession performance. I like KenPom in general, but even I would argue that it overstates the importance of margin. All possessions are not created equally.

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[LA Muskie]

Weird to me that people are praising Iowa then discounting Maryland in the same breath. Iowa best Michigan state once without valentine, and the second time valentine was in his second game back and not fully healthy. Maryland has also beaten Purdue just like Iowa, and oh Maryland beat Iowa.

Not saying Iowa isn't good but don't think they are any better than maryland.

Iowa has had some scheduling luck no doubt. Wichita St with no Van Vleet. MSU without Valentine once, and the other with a not-100% Valentine. But on the other hand they've played the big games they have, and they've won them -- including several away from home. Maryland's best and only KenPom Top 25 win away from home was UConn at a neutral site in early December. The rest of their damage (including a 74-68 over Iowa) has been done at home. It's too bad the BiG doesn't play a true round robin. I'd like to see how Maryland would fare at Iowa. I think Iowa would win.


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[xubrew]

Weird to me that people are praising Iowa then discounting Maryland in the same breath. Iowa best Michigan state once without valentine, and the second time valentine was in his second game back and not fully healthy. Maryland has also beaten Purdue just like Iowa, and oh Maryland beat Iowa.

Not saying Iowa isn't good but don't think they are any better than maryland.

I'm personally not nearly as impressed with beating teams at home as I am with beating teams away from home. I think Maryland has just one win away from home against a team that's likely to make the field. That's why I'm not that impressed with Maryland when comparing them to other teams that are likely to get protected seeds.

[Xville]

I'm personally not nearly as impressed with beating teams at home as I am with beating teams away from home. I think Maryland has just one win away from home against a team that's likely to make the field. That's why I'm not that impressed with Maryland when comparing them to other teams that are likely to get protected seeds.

Fair enough but Iowa only has three..one of them as I said was with valentine not fully healthy and another one was Wichita state without van vleet. I agree about the home/away concept but I don't think Iowa has really done much more in that regard than maryland...

Just saying I think Iowa's resume doesn't look as good when looked at a bit closer.

[LA Muskie]

Well they did beat Purdue on the road as well. And shit happens. They played the MSU and Wich St teams that showed up. And they beat them (MSU twice).


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[xubrew]

Fair enough but Iowa only has three..one of them as I said was with valentine not fully healthy and another one was Wichita state without van vleet. I agree about the home/away concept but I don't think Iowa has really done much more in that regard than maryland...

Just saying I think Iowa's resume doesn't look as good when looked at a bit closer.

"Only three" is a lot. They won at Michigan State, and at Purdue. Those are true road wins. Maryland beat UConn, who isn't as good as Michigan State even without Valentine, and they didn't beat them in a true road game. Their best true road win is Wisconsin, who may actually play their way into the field, but they're not going to be a protected seed like Michigan State or Purdue are likely to be.

The home team in college basketball has two huge advantages. One is the familiarity with the venue, such as the floor, the rims, the shooting backgrounds, etc. This is no small thing. The other is the atmosphere, which is hugely supporting for them and hugely suffocating for the opposition. No other major sport is as favorable to the home team as college basketball. It's really not even close. I don't think beating a team at home means you're necessarily better than the team you beat. It just means you're able to beat them when you have two big advantages over them.

To me, Maryland has proven that they're good enough to beat good teams when they have those two advantages going for them. They have not proven they can do it without those two advantages. They certainly haven't proven they can do it with those two things going against them. Iowa has. Even in losing efforts at Iowa State and Maryland, they played well. Not only has Maryland not won a game like that, they haven't even looked that good. They barely won at Wisconsin, they didn't win at Michigan, and they had to sweat out Ohio State. These aren't protected seeds. Most of them aren't even tournament teams.

And, yes, perhaps that's an eye test thing, and I know how much people hate the eye test because it's so subjective. But, the paper is supportive of IOwa as well. They're blowing past the teams that aren't tournament teams, and they're playing really well against the teams that are, and they've actually beaten Michigan State and Purdue.

I don't think they're close at all. When I look at it, I think Iowa is clearly better. I realize that I'm looking at it much differently than you are, but that's how I see it. That's why I praise Iowa and not Maryland in the same sentence.

[XUFan09]

Even without Valentine, Michigan State is a really tough team to beat on the road. Even if they're only considered a top 50 team without him (which is really underselling them), that's still the equivalent of beating a top 15 team on a neutral court.

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[XUFan09]

I think we'll be the first team not receiving first place votes.

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Nailed it.

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