Bracket Watch and rankings (first week of February)

[X-man]

I keep track of a lot of sites that rank or project teams for the tournament. As of this week, here is what I have found. Xavier is projected as a 1-seed by CBS (Palm), FoxSports, and USAToday. Xavier is projected as a 2-seed by Sports Illustrated, ESPN (Lunardi), and SportingNews. Xavier ranked 1st (by Nolan), 2nd (by Colley), 3rd (by DanceCard and TeamRankings), and 4th (by Massey, DeSimone, and CBS (Top25+1)). There are others out there of course, not to mention the AP and Coaches' Poll, but the ones I list here are a good cross-section of relatively high profile prognosticators. It looks pretty solid to me at this early juncture. However Xavier needs to hold serve for both home games this week because there is a string of relatively tough league games starting next week, and Xavier seems likely lose 2-3 of those games.

[muskiefan82]

likely lose 2-3 of those games.

blasphemer!!!!

[mid major]

blasphemer!!!!

Infidel!!!

[smileyy]

Ken Pomeroy has Xavier as a favorite in all of their upcoming games, and also projects 3 losses over the course of those games. @Seton Hall is the narrowest favorite, at 51%

[xu82]

Well, I guess it's true that the favorite doesn't always win - but that just sounds funny.

[XUFan09]

Ken Pomeroy has Xavier as a favorite in all of their upcoming games, and also projects 3 losses over the course of those games. @Seton Hall is the narrowest favorite, at 51%
I forget where it's calculated, but Kenpom projects "4.46 wins." That's basically an even chance on 4 or 5 wins. Either would be great, but I think 5 wins will probably be needed to win the conference championship.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[MarvAlbert]

Well, I guess it's true that the favorite doesn't always win - but that just sounds funny.

Even if a team has a 90% chance of winning for each of 10 games in a row, then, statistically, they only have a 34.87% chance of going undefeated in those 10 games. Win probabilities can be deceiving sometimes.

[Masterofreality]

blasphemer!!!!


Infidel!!!

Charlatan!!!!!

[paulxu]

blasphemer!!!!


Infidel!!!


Charlatan!!!!!

Douche! (wrong thread?)

[paulxu]

Very surprised by the composite rankings this morning.
We dropped 6 spots, from 5th to 11th. Guess it's good we didn't lose last week.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

[Kahns Krazy]

Palm has us at the #2 overall, with an explanation of why we're being edged out for the overall #1. Giggity.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25476009/bracketology-ou-still-overall-no-1-seed-despite-loss-at-kansas-state

[XMuskieFTW]

Question about seeding. If we are a 1 or 2 seed are we basically assured of playing in St. Louis? I know they always try to have the top seeds play locally, but how far down does that apply? Would we be there as a 3 or 4 also?

[ReturnOfTheMack]

Question about seeding. If we are a 1 or 2 seed are we basically assured of playing in St. Louis? I know they always try to have the top seeds play locally, but how far down does that apply? Would we be there as a 3 or 4 also?

Theoretically yes. The top 4 seeds in each region are "protected" seeds and are placed at the first/second round sight that is closest to their campus. There are a few contingencies that could potentially bump a protected seed from the nearest sight but those rarely occur.

[xubrew]

Question about seeding. If we are a 1 or 2 seed are we basically assured of playing in St. Louis? I know they always try to have the top seeds play locally, but how far down does that apply? Would we be there as a 3 or 4 also?

It depends on how many teams are ahead of you that would also work for that spot.

I know that Oklahoma State is terrible this year, but for the sake of explaining this let's pretend they're also in the top fifteen. Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas can't all go to Oklahoma City. Only two can.

But, with that being said, there aren't too many teams that are ahead of Xavier that are geographically close to Saint Louis, so that's probably where we'll end up if we finish where we currently stand.

[XUFan09]

KU and Oklahoma are relatively close to St. Louis, unless there's another site that's closer for them.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[GoMuskies]

Oklahoma City is about 10 miles from Norman. Maybe 20.

STL and and OKC are about equi-distant from Lawrence.

[blueblob06]

Very surprised by the composite rankings this morning.
We dropped 6 spots, from 5th to 11th. Guess it's good we didn't lose last week.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Yes I'm very confused by this. We win 2 conference games and drop....how do some of the indexes not even have Xavier in the top 20? What could they possibly be measuring that would conclude X isn't a top 20 team at this point?

[GoMuskies]

Xavier played a team ranked 200+ and a borderline top 100 team (both at home) and struggled to win both games. That's not going to look good to the computers.

[paulxu]

St Louis to play in 2nd game the Shockers or Ben Simmons.

This must be Go's idea of a good time.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[X-band '01]

Kansas is actually closer to Des Moines than OKC or St. Louis; Kansas and Iowa should be slam-dunks for Des Moines.
Oklahoma City - Oklahoma is a slam-dunk to play there; the 2nd team is anyone's guess.
Raleigh - should be North Carolina and either Virginia or West Virginia.
Brooklyn - likely Villanova and Maryland (but could also be UVa/West Virginia)

Xavier's only competition for St. Louis would likely come from Michigan State and either Iowa State, Baylor or Texas. It's unlikely that Xavier finishes below two of those teams. The worst-case scenario would likely involve Xavier either going to Providence, OKC or Denver.

[Xville]

St Louis to play in 2nd game the Shockers or Ben Simmons.

This must be Go's idea of a good time.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Yikes! That bracket is a freaking nightmare....no thank you. Wichita St or LSU in the second round, Michigan State in the Third, Oklahoma or Kentucky in the regional final....no thank you

[X-band '01]

Joe Lunardi is doing his usual shill job for the Mothership with North Carolina on his 1 line, Maryland on the 2 line and Kentucky on his 4 line.

He has Saint Joe's above Seton Hall which is an absolute joke. The Pirates are much more safely in the field based on what they've accomplished so far; he's waiting for a Hall meltdown that hasn't happened yet.

[GoMuskies]

How on earth can UNC be a #1 seed after losing twice last week?!? Weird.

[XUFan09]

Kansas is actually closer to Des Moines than OKC or St. Louis; Kansas and Iowa should be slam-dunks for Des Moines.
Oklahoma City - Oklahoma is a slam-dunk to play there; the 2nd team is anyone's guess.
Raleigh - should be North Carolina and either Virginia or West Virginia.
Brooklyn - likely Villanova and Maryland (but could also be UVa/West Virginia)

Xavier's only competition for St. Louis would likely come from Michigan State and either Iowa State, Baylor or Texas. It's unlikely that Xavier finishes below two of those teams. The worst-case scenario would likely involve Xavier either going to Providence, OKC or Denver.
Ok good, it's nice to see these other sites available. So, Xavier can be a 1 seed in St. Louis.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[letskeepitreal]

I kind of like Jerry Palms brackets a lot better then Lunardi http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology. Would love to see us take on Indiana although that's kind of a dangerous team, depending on who shows up. I hate Cream would love to stick it to him although my kid is an IU alum.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Yikes! That bracket is a freaking nightmare....no thank you. Wichita St or LSU in the second round, Michigan State in the Third, Oklahoma or Kentucky in the regional final....no thank you

Yeah, I'd love the 2 seed that Virginia has in this projection though.

[GoMuskies]

I kind of like Jerry Palms brackets a lot better then Lunardi http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology.



Yes, this is much better!

[muskiefan82]

St Louis to play in 2nd game the Shockers or Ben Simmons.

This must be Go's idea of a good time.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Wait....where is UC? Oh.

[xubrew]

Xavier played a team ranked 200+ and a borderline top 100 team (both at home) and struggled to win both games. That's not going to look good to the computers.

Good point. It's important to remember that unlike the voters in the AP and Coaches' Polls, the computers actually watch the games!

[xubrew]

Kansas is actually closer to Des Moines than OKC or St. Louis; Kansas and Iowa should be slam-dunks for Des Moines.
Oklahoma City - Oklahoma is a slam-dunk to play there; the 2nd team is anyone's guess.
Raleigh - should be North Carolina and either Virginia or West Virginia.
Brooklyn - likely Villanova and Maryland (but could also be UVa/West Virginia)

Xavier's only competition for St. Louis would likely come from Michigan State and either Iowa State, Baylor or Texas. It's unlikely that Xavier finishes below two of those teams. The worst-case scenario would likely involve Xavier either going to Providence, OKC or Denver.

Damn! X-Band is all over it!!!

[GoMuskies]

Good point. It's important to remember that unlike the voters in the AP and Coaches' Polls, the computers actually watch the games!

Indeed. For all 351 Division I teams.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It depends on how many teams are ahead of you that would also work for that spot.

I know that Oklahoma State is terrible this year, but for the sake of explaining this let's pretend they're also in the top fifteen. Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas can't all go to Oklahoma City. Only two can.

But, with that being said, there aren't too many teams that are ahead of Xavier that are geographically close to Saint Louis, so that's probably where we'll end up if we finish where we currently stand.

Does St. Louis not have certain seed games already applied to their location? Any seed can play there? Like it isnt already assigned a 2 vs 15, etc?

[GoMuskies]

Does St. Louis not have certain seed games already applied to their location? Any seed can play there? Like it isnt already assigned a 2 vs 15, etc?

None of those are assigned ahead of time.

[xubrew]

Does St. Louis not have certain seed games already applied to their location? Any seed can play there? Like it isnt already assigned a 2 vs 15, etc?

It's not predetermined. Any pod can go any place.

Pods are (1v16, 8v9) (4v13, 5v12), etc.

[D-West & PO-Z]

None of those are assigned ahead of time.

Ok sweet, thanks.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It's not predetermined. Any pod can go any place.

Pods are (1v16, 8v9) (4v13, 5v12), etc.

Thanks.

[X-band '01]

Does St. Louis not have certain seed games already applied to their location? Any seed can play there? Like it isnt already assigned a 2 vs 15, etc?


None of those are assigned ahead of time.


It's not predetermined. Any pod can go any place.

Pods are (1v16, 8v9) (4v13, 5v12), etc.

They've been using the pod system since 2004 - remember the uproar in 2003 when #1 Kentucky and #2 Arizona were slotted to face each other in the Final 4 but not the national title game? That was the last year that there were predetermined sites and regions.

Oh, and that committee also made the mistake of placing BYU in a Friday/Sunday regional initially as well. There is that.

[xumuskies08]

I'm really hoping X gets sent to STL. It looks pretty probable, but still no lock. My dad and I have talked about meeting up if XU ends up there. Dad from Cincy, myself from KC.

[xubrew]

I'm really hoping X gets sent to STL. It looks pretty probable, but still no lock. My dad and I have talked about meeting up if XU ends up there. Dad from Cincy, myself from KC.

I hope we go to Saint Louis, then Louisville, then Houston. That would make me happy.

[GoMuskies]

What dumb ass coach gave UNC a first place vote this week?!?

[xubrew]

What dumb ass coach gave UNC a first place vote this week?!?

OMFG!

Some coach out there has a real dumbass for a DOBO.

[Xavier]

I know everyone doesn't want to go west but I care more about the road in front of us (IE teams we play). Just give me the easiest potential road and I am happy.

[GoMuskies]

I think a one seed out West would be fine. We'd still play the first two games in St. Looey.

[mid major]

Joe Lunardi is doing his usual shill job for the Mothership with North Carolina on his 1 line, Maryland on the 2 line and Kentucky on his 4 line.

He has Saint Joe's above Seton Hall which is an absolute joke. The Pirates are much more safely in the field based on what they've accomplished so far; he's waiting for a Hall meltdown that hasn't happened yet.

Didn't Joe's shit the bed at home against the Bonnie's this past week? That can't be a good loss.

[xubrew]

Didn't Joe's shit the bed at home against the Bonnie's this past week? That can't be a good loss.

Yes they did. They got absolutely clobbered.

[GoMuskies]

St. Bonny's is certainly not a good team to lose to at home, but it's not a crippling loss. They're 74th in the Massey ratings comparison, which puts them roughly in the same class as Georgetown (#67). And Bona is actually a top 50 RPI team (#49).

[X-band '01]

What dumb ass coach gave UNC a first place vote this week?!?


OMFG!

Some coach out there has a real dumbass for a DOBO.

Paging Gary Parrish - or does he only attack fellow media voters in his weekly Poll Attacks?

[THRILLHOUSE]

Paging Gary Parrish - or does he only attack fellow media voters in his weekly Poll Attacks?

He typically at least mentions something he doesn't like about the Coaches Poll.

[xubrew]

St. Bonny's is certainly not a good team to lose to at home, but it's not a crippling loss. They're 74th in the Massey ratings comparison, which puts them roughly in the same class as Georgetown (#67). And Bona is actually a top 50 RPI team (#49).

You're right in terms of it not being a crippling loss on paper, but it was eye gougingly bad to watch. I was starting to become more and more impressed with Saint Joe's, and they just went in there and got mopped up. It was a rather underwhelming showing.

[RealDeal]

Joe Lunardi is doing his usual shill job for the Mothership with North Carolina on his 1 line, Maryland on the 2 line and Kentucky on his 4 line.

He has Saint Joe's above Seton Hall which is an absolute joke. The Pirates are much more safely in the field based on what they've accomplished so far; he's waiting for a Hall meltdown that hasn't happened yet.

Don't know if this has been mentioned but Joe L went to St Joe's.

[X-band '01]

He usually doesn't shill for his hometown Hawks, though. (even though he is employed by Saint Joseph's University). My beef with him is that his bracket is always tailor made to shill for the Mothership like it is gospel on their telecasts. CBS does have Jerry Palm and his bracket, but they don't beat it into the ground at every opportunity.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yikes! That bracket is a freaking nightmare....no thank you. Wichita St or LSU in the second round, Michigan State in the Third, Oklahoma or Kentucky in the regional final....no thank you

Dude on ESPN today said he thinks Wichita has to win MVC tourney now to make tourney with loss to Illinois State.

"Wichita State probably needs the MVC tourney title now to Dance
Prior to Saturday's loss at Illinois State, the Shockers had made a respectable case to the NCAA's selection committee that their poor showing earlier this season while Fred Van Vleet missed multiple games due to a hamstring injury should not be viewed as a serious blemish on their résumé by smashing everyone they faced in MVC play. But Illinois State's RPI of 124 severely damages Wichita State's at-large argument. The Shockers are 3-5 against the top 100 and 2-5 against the top 50. That's not the sexiest résumé for a team that's competing in a mid-major conference.

Wichita State will enter Arch Madness as the favorite and perhaps desperate for the league's tourney title, which might be its only ticket to the Big Dance."

Dont know enough about all the other teams resumes to know if this is BS or not. Anyone?

[X-band '01]

At a minimum, Wichita State probably needs to win out in the regular season and advance to the Valley's championship game. They've beaten Evansville and Southern Illinois (2nd and 4th in the Valley) twice pretty handily. Their remaining regular-season schedule is full of RPI/KenPom anchors.

[GoMuskies]

Doesn't seem to match up with what anyone is saying in their "Bracketology" or what the voters are doing with Wichita State in the polls. They still have a top 15 KenPom.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

We dropped down to a three seed in the latest ESPN bracketology

[XMuskieFTW]

We dropped down to a three seed in the latest ESPN bracketology

It's also showing us playing in Spokane with 2 other pods but only one pod in St. Louis. Shows how accurate ESPN's bracketology is.

[X-band '01]

3 Spokane regionals, 3 Raleigh regionals and 1 Denver and 1 St. Louis regional. Clearly self-editing is not a requirement.

Kentucky also benefitting from a bogus BPI rating.

[X-band '01]

He's smoking crack if he still thinks Seton Hall and Butler are still part of the First Four. Maybe Gonzaga and St. Mary's were sending more hate mail to the Mothership.

[StanleyOwnsYou]

USA Today also updated today and has us on the 3 line matched up with Belmont (14) and (6)Notre Dame/(11)Gonzaga... In Providence? :rolleyes:

The only teams contending for St. Louis site are Michigan State and Iowa State, neither of which are seeded higher than us. There sure are a lot of "bracketologists" who really struggle with some basic geography.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm not sure how much the bracketologists care or consider location when they are doing these. I think their main goal is to get the teams in right and the seeding and close as possible. Not sure they would say they even really consider the location.

[bleedXblue]

Going into this year, we all would have taken a 3 seed in the tourney......without any hesitation. Lots of ball to play.......

[Xavier]

I agree. And I also would be happy with a 3. But I hate the "before the season, we would have loved to be...." Expectations change within a season.

[bleedXblue]

I agree. And I also would be happy with a 3. But I hate the "before the season, we would have loved to be...." Expectations change within a season.

Right like 3 weeks ago we were hoping for a 1 and now we're hoping for a 3......

[XUFan09]

I'd be disappointed with anything less than a 3. We lost only the third game of the season, playing a good overall schedule, in a season with no elite teams.

Our odds of getting a 1 seed obvious decreased, but that's not ruled out either. A win at Creighton would have helped that endeavor more than losing at Creighton hurt it.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[waggy]

I'd be disappointed with anything less than a 3. We lost only the third game of the season, playing a good overall schedule, in a season with no elite teams.

Our odds of getting a 1 seed obvious decreased, but that's not ruled out either. A win at Creighton would have helped that endeavor more than losing at Creighton hurt it.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk


I don't think there's any way X can get a 1 seed without winning, or at least tying for the BE regular season. Don't really know how much weight the committee puts on the conference tournaments, but don't think it's a lot.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I don't think there's any way X can get a 1 seed without winning, or at least tying for the BE regular season. Don't really know how much weight the committee puts on the conference tournaments, but don't think it's a lot.

I think there is a fair amount put on conference tourneys. We've seen teams in the past move up multiple seed lines and lock up 1 seeds as a result of winning conference tourneys. Maybe it doesnt matter much for mediocre conferences where you arent getting a lot of good wins but if we win the BE tourney that would be a huge bump. Even last year we got a big bump, we went from just in to a 6 seed for just getting to the finals.

[X-band '01]

I think there is a fair amount put on conference tourneys. We've seen teams in the past move up multiple seed lines and lock up 1 seeds as a result of winning conference tourneys. Maybe it doesnt matter much for mediocre conferences where you arent getting a lot of good wins but if we win the BE tourney that would be a huge bump. Even last year we got a big bump, we went from just in to a 6 seed for just getting to the finals.

You can get a big bump IF you get notable wins against future NCAA Tournament opponents. Butler (6 seed) and Georgetown (4 seed) fit the bill perfectly. If you were a bubble team like Illinois and just completely wet the bed in their lone Big 10 Tournament game, it can be lethal.

[XUFan09]

I think there is a fair amount put on conference tourneys. We've seen teams in the past move up multiple seed lines and lock up 1 seeds as a result of winning conference tourneys. Maybe it doesnt matter much for mediocre conferences where you arent getting a lot of good wins but if we win the BE tourney that would be a huge bump. Even last year we got a big bump, we went from just in to a 6 seed for just getting to the finals.
Yeah, conference tournaments seems to have an unusually strong weight when discussing 1 seeds. It's the exception to the rule that conference tournament games are just additional games on the schedule, nothing extraordinary.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[LA Muskie]

I'm not sure how much the bracketologists care or consider location when they are doing these. I think their main goal is to get the teams in right and the seeding and close as possible. Not sure they would say they even really consider the location.

Exactly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UCGRAD4X]

Yeah, conference tournaments seems to have an unusually strong weight when discussing 1 seeds. It's the exception to the rule that conference tournament games are just additional games on the schedule, nothing extraordinary.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

If I recall, Committee members have indicated as far as "who get in" is mostly decided before the tourneys and maybe even seeds - to some extent. There are some 'tweaks' that happen but not great deal.

That seems to be my recollection (which definitely makes the comment suspect from the get-go....so there is that).

[XUFan09]

If I recall, Committee members have indicated as far as "who get in" is mostly decided before the tourneys and maybe even seeds - to some extent. There are some 'tweaks' that happen but not great deal.

That seems to be my recollection (which definitely makes the comment suspect from the get-go....so there is that).
Right, but that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about who the Committee chooses as the top 4 teams.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[DoubleD86]

I posted this in another thread, but it fits here too:

Bracket Matrix has Xavier as the second 2 seed with over half of their 88 bracketologies being submitted since the loss. With the caveat that there is still plenty of basketball to be played, Xavier is still firmly in the 2 seed range. The thing with plenty of basketball to be played and a team this good means they still have opportunities to either cement themselves as a 2 seed, play their way into a 1 seed or continue to fall. Barring a total collapse, I see the floor of this team as a 4 seed and much more likely they are looking at a 2 or, at worst, a 3 seed.

[Musketeer15]

https://twitter.com/NYPost_Brazille/status/698171132508147712

Media members had a mock selection over the past two days. X came as #10 overall, meaning the second #3 seed. Interesting Seton Hall is left out

[XUFan09]

https://twitter.com/NYPost_Brazille/status/698171132508147712

Media members had a mock selection over the past two days. X came as #10 overall, meaning the second #3 seed. Interesting Seton Hall is left out
Unless this is something new that they're doing, this isn't THE Committee, right?

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[XMuskieFTW]

Unless this is something new that they're doing, this isn't THE Committee, right?

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

http://newsok.com/article/5478127

It might be actually.

[drudy23]

I think it's select media members who follow the committee...but I may be wrong.

[XUMIOH12]

I think it's select media members who follow the committee...but I may be wrong.

it is just a group of media members. I dont think anyone on the actual committee can participate.

[XUFan09]

it is just a group of media members. I dont think anyone on the actual committee can participate.
Yeah, it would be groundbreaking if the actual Committee or any member of it did this selection. Media groups do mock selections quite frequently.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

If I'm reading that graphic that XUFan09 quoted, it looked like Xavier was highlighted in green, which I'm assuming means that they would win the Big East Tournament. I can't see Xavier getting any worse than a 2 under such a scenario.

Also notice under this scenario that Monmouth gets an at-large since Siena was simulated to win the MAAC Tournament; Gonzaga got shafted after losing the simulated West Coast Conference championship in favor of BYU.

However, I'm only counting 30 auto-bid winners; not sure why that's the case.

[X-band '01]

The Atlantic 10 and ACC did not have a champion highlighted. I think they should have withheld the Big 10/American conferences since they are the last ones played on Selection Sunday.

[XUMIOH12]

Yeah, it would be groundbreaking if the actual Committee or any member of it did this selection. Media groups do mock selections quite frequently.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

it would be very interesting (but not sure if i would like it) if the actual committee gave a bracket release every week starting in January or February.

[Xavier]

I think it would stink and ruin Selection Sunday.

[XUFan09]

I think it would lead to a lot of people feeling the Committee broke promises, so to speak. Keep in mind also that even the day of Selection Sunday last year, the Committee had a dozen contingency brackets. Even they don't have an official bracket until it's all said and done.

Plus, it would bias them toward short-term results rather than entire bodies of work, something that is an issue with the rankings already. If they have to pin down certain seeds mid-season, it's harder to reevaluate when they might be wrong, because mentally they have committed to certain ranges.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

They already do partial seed lists for the women's tournament; it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a Top 10 or Top 20 down the road for the men.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think it would stink and ruin Selection Sunday.

Yeah same.

[gladdenguy]

After last night Jerry Palm has moved the Xavier Musketeers and Virginia Cavaliers up to a one seed.
Iowa and Oklahoma fall out and Xavier also the picture on the front of cbssports at the moment.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[UCGRAD4X]

Nova in east and Xavier in south, both #1 - sounds fair.

[X-band '01]

HoopsHD Bracket Rundown - February 18 (http://hoopshd.com/2016/02/18/hoops-hd-bracket-rundown-february-19th/)

I wish the bracket in this podcast could have taken the Maryland game into account. The panelists who voted on this bracket include the chairman of HoopsHD.com, a UConn blogger, Warren Nolan of WarrenNolan.com and a shark puppet. Take from that what you will.

There is also a 5/12 matchup that this board would absolutely love to see in this bracket.

[GoMuskies]

Utah/Wichita State rematch in the first round?

[xubrew]

Utah/Wichita State rematch in the first round?

They try to avoid rematches, but geography and not moving seed lines is a bigger priority. That being said, I wouldn't expect there to be any rematches in the Round of 64. They happen, but only once every few years.

[X-band '01]

BYU also had a rematch with Oregon in 2014; BYU is another difficult team to place because of their refusal to play on Sundays.

[chico]

BYU also had a rematch with Oregon in 2014; BYU is another difficult team to place because of their refusal to play on Sundays.

But the difficulty is worth it because they're such an exciting team.

[D-West & PO-Z]

But the difficulty is worth it because they're such an exciting team.

They won the national championship last year in the exciting teams bracket.

[XMuskieFTW]

Ugh. If only we could've pulled it off against BYU in the tourney last year.

[xukeith]

Not sure how accurate this is but I read some bracket site that was seeding top seeds and said that to get a #1, a team must have a solid top 25 record. X is 2-1. But might lock it up with a Villanova win.
Hope they expose Hoyas first

[xukeith]

There used to be a website that had 2-9 lists of all different bracketologists' prognostications.
Or maybe that was rankings.
If anyone has that link, I would love to see it.

[ammtd34]

http://bracketmatrix.com/ ?

[chico]

Don't know how you make the cut for that list. One of the guys that has us as a 4 seed has 5 different 12 seeds.

Maybe that's Digger Phelps' bracket.

[GoMuskies]

Nothing wrong with 5 12 seeds. Remember, the play-in games. Should also have 5 11 or 13 seeds.

[X-band '01]

If there are 5 12-seeds, that just means that 2 of the 12-seeds are play-in game teams.

[chico]

Nothing wrong with 5 12 seeds. Remember, the play-in games. Should also have 5 11 or 13 seeds.

That's right. Those pesky play-in games.

[GoMuskies]

So...why is Seton Hall one of the last 8 teams in while Providence is a 7 seed in the latest ESPN Bracketology? I'm not really even sure why Providence is ahead of Butler right now.

[X-band '01]

You do realize that PC already swept the Bulldogs, right? Butler is in trouble because they haven't been able to beat either Providence, Nova or Xavier. Their only notable Big East wins include at Seton Hall, Creighton and Georgetown.

[GoMuskies]

You do realize that PC already swept the Friars, right?


Well that's a neat trick.

[X-band '01]

Well that's a neat trick.

You have to be able to pull off unconventional things like that to stay ranked if you're Providence.

[waggy]

Wichita St. looks like they are easily a tournament team regardless if they win the MVC tourney.

[GoMuskies]

Wichita St. looks like they are easily a tournament team regardless if they win the MVC tourney.

They have two more chances for bad losses this week. Get through this week (@ MOR's Loyola Ramblers, vs. Illinois State), and they're fine.

[smileyy]

Loyola Ramblers

Remember when Xavier shared a conference with them?

[GoMuskies]

Remember when Xavier shared a conference with them?

No. I'm choosing to remember that never happened.

[X-band '01]

Remember when Xavier shared a conference with them?


No. I'm choosing to remember that never happened.

That's what MOR is going to tell his granddaughters someday - the rivalries Xavier had with Loyola and Evansville back in the caveman MCC era.

[GoMuskies]

I reminisce fondly about the classic rivalry we used to have with Northern Illinois.

[RealDeal]

That's what MOR is going to tell his granddaughters someday - the rivalries Xavier had with Loyola and Evansville back in the caveman MCC era.

That Casebier (sp?) guy for Evansville could play.

[muskiefan82]

That Casebier (sp?) guy for Evansville could play.

Ah yes. Parrish Casebier. Those were the days. Alfredrick Hughes and Andre Battle at Loyola. That Loyola team did make the Sweet 16 before meeting Ewing and Georgetown. Those were the times that led to these times. It's still "pinch me" kind of stuff when you look back at those raucous tumbles between X and Oklahoma City, Oral Roberts, and Detroit.

[KsMuskie]

My less fond memories include: 1) our yearly drubbing at Virginia Tech at the hands of Ace Custis in the mid 90s and 2) in the early 2000's, praying that Alvin Brown catches fire at Wisconsin (which never happened).

[X-band '01]

I reminisce fondly about the classic rivalry we used to have with Northern Illinois.

Don't forget Wisconsin-Green Bay. I also believe Detroit might be the only charter member of the Midwestern City Conference that is still in the Horizon.


My less fond memories include: 1) our yearly drubbing at Virginia Tech at the hands of Ace Custis in the mid 90s and 2) in the early 2000's, praying that Alvin Brown catches fire at Wisconsin (which never happened).

The only year Virginia Tech swept Xavier was the inaugural A-10 season; Virginia Tech has sucked ox balls since then. Xavier only lost to the Hokies once since 1995-96.

[GoMuskies]

They also killed our very good '94-'95 team in a non-conference affair in Blacksburg.

[X-band '01]

They also killed our very good '94-'95 team in a non-conference affair in Blacksburg.

That's also because Xavier was looking ahead to an Ohio team that would win the Preseason NIT that year. Probably the only time I could ever remember Ohio being ranked in the Top 25 (they were #19 with Gary Trent - the Shaq of the MAC).

[GoMuskies]

And Geno Ford.

But I think we just got smacked around. It was a Skip Prosser team on the road after all. We just didn't yet know to expect it.

[smileyy]

And Geno Ford.

But I think we just got smacked around. It was a Skip Prosser team on the road after all. We just didn't yet know to expect it.

It only hurts because its true :(

[THRILLHOUSE]

Fox Sports on how X and Nova can be 1 seeds (pretty much what we've talked about already, but good to seem some national press acknowledge that it's a realistic possibility)

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/villanova-xavier-ncaa-tournament-no-1-seeds-big-east-022216

[OTRMUSKIE]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Wtf is this? Utah?

[muskiefan82]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Wtf is this? Utah?

They do have Gonzaga missing. Which I would enjoy.

[waggy]

The P12 is sneaky good this year. Bunch of teams could get at large bids.

[X-band '01]

Utah did beat Duke in MSG back in December; that's for all intents and purposes a road win even if the Committee says otherwise. They've also beaten California (who is getting hotter by the day), San Diego State, Texas Tech, Temple, and they were the only team to win at Colorado and USC. If your worst loss is at Stanford, I'd argue that they could also be a protected seed in March depending on how they finish.

They're a rung below Oregon, but the Utes get to finish their regular season at home with Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. I could easily see them sweeping all 3 games and entering the Pac-12 Tournament with a full head of steam.

[OTRMUSKIE]

VD is ranked ahead of Utah and Utah is a 1 seed? Dance Card is damn good at making predictions too. Goes to show you that the polls are a joke.

[smileyy]

VD is ranked ahead of Utah and Utah is a 1 seed? Dance Card is damn good at making predictions too. Goes to show you that the polls are a joke.

Utah is #10 in the RPI with a #10 SOS. A 1-seed seems high; a high seed does not.

The polls are terrible at gauging quality. So is NCAA seeding (though this has gotten a lot better). I used to do pretty well in brackets by identifying mismatches between a team's seeding and its KenPom rating. There are a lot fewer paper tigers seed-wise than there used to be.

[atljar]

On likelyhood of X and Villanova as #1s

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/villanova-xavier-ncaa-tournament-no-1-seeds-big-east-022216

[Pajama Joe]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

X still a 2 seed in Joe's bracket.

[Xville]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

X still a 2 seed in Joe's bracket.

If we are a 2, I would take that one. That's a pretty easy March to the second weekend, and then playing in Louisville would be great...especially against those teams seeded 1,3 and 4.

[powerofX]

If we are a 2, I would take that one. That's a pretty easy March to the second weekend, and then playing in Louisville would be great...especially against those teams seeded 1,3 and 4.

Agree. If that was a real bracket, way better than NC being shipped west.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Now that we beat Nova, I'm confused about what makes their resume better than ours other than they have only lost to top 50 RPI teams.

We have lost to 2 top 100 RPI teams yes, but we have 3 more top 50 RPI wins.

Edit: I guess that is only RPI wise, I dont follow all the other metrics so maybe they are a lot better than us in those.

[waggy]

Seeding is going to be very interesting this year. Michigan State hasn't been mentioned much for a 1 seed, and they don't and probably won't have a high RPI. But they've emerged as the best team according to both Sagarin and Pomeroy.

[Xville]

Now that we beat Nova, I'm confused about what makes their resume better than ours other than they have only lost to top 50 RPI teams.

We have lost to 2 top 100 RPI teams yes, but we have 3 more top 50 RPI wins.

Edit: I guess that is only RPI wise, I dont follow all the other metrics so maybe they are a lot better than us in those.

I believe that Pomeroy right now Nova is 2 and X is 10...they may be part of it...not sure about Sagarin.

[GoMuskies]

Sagarin has Xavier #11. Xavier has been low in Sagarin all year.

[XUFan09]

Sagarin has Xavier #11. Xavier has been low in Sagarin all year.
Part of that is simply how Xavier slacks off against crappy teams on average more than their peers. The Providence and Villanova "comebacks" piss me off, though.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[xukeith]

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/projection

So far this is my favorite bracket and match ups.

[GoMuskies]

Playing Syracuse in NY in the second round would suck big time. But there's no way that would happen.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X in NY would suck. I'll take a 2 seed in St. Louis before a 1 in Ny. I want to go to louisville

[xukeith]

here is some good observations by 94 geeks in the USA who attempt to prognosticate the Bracket.
X averages the last 1 seed.
http://bracketmatrix.com/

[XUFan09]

here is some good observations by 94 geeks in the USA who attempt to prognosticate the Bracket.
X averages the last 1 seed.
http://bracketmatrix.com/
Notice that only a minority have updated brackets since the Villanova game.

Of the updated brackets, 28 have my Xavier as a 1 seed and 11 have Xavier as a 2 seed.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[THRILLHOUSE]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

[BandAid]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

Doesn't the Committee avoid potential rematches before the Sweet Sixteen? This bracket would necessitate a match up between UC or UD...

[GoMuskies]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

That would be a fun Sunday afternoon in St. Looey for me. Xavier vs. Dayton/UC followed by Wichita State vs. Michigan State. Yes, please.

And who would 'brew cheer for in our first-round matchup?

[THRILLHOUSE]

Doesn't the Committee avoid potential rematches before the Sweet Sixteen? This bracket would necessitate a match up between UC or UD...

They only try to avoid rematches in the first round. There isn't any rule against it. During our 2004 run, the 2nd round game vs Miss State was a rematch.

[muethibp]

Doesn't the Committee avoid potential rematches before the Sweet Sixteen? This bracket would necessitate a match up between UC or UD...


Additional Considerations

1. If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-02-18/march-madness-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i

[sgarcia]

They only try to avoid rematches in the first round. There isn't any rule against it. During our 2004 run, the 2nd round game vs Miss State was a rematch.

There's a lot of rules for that type of stuff. If you played someone at least twice I think they now try to avoid until the final 8. If you play once then they try to avoid the first round. I think there's something with playing another conference team but don't recall that. If the top 4 in your league are all top 4 seeds they all have to be in different brackets.

[XUMIOH12]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

It won't, but I'd be so mad if that actually happened.

[THRILLHOUSE]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25437208/bracketology-need-to-knows-about-how-the-ncaa-tournament-bracket-is-built

[markchal]

The Seton Hall loss stung because of its blowout nature and because it came on the heels of a massive win, but that sting should wear off as the week goes on. While it would've been incredible to see us as a 1-seed (and we still have a shot), it's hard not to be excited about where we are now.

We're done playing in hostile gyms and the only regular season game left is the next stop on the revenge tour, so it should be a gratifying one.

Then it's onto the tournament(s), and this team has looked great on a neutral court. It's also so nice to go into a Selection Sunday without a shred of anxiety. And once we're there, we have an incredibly deep and experienced team that plays an uncommon and difficult to plan for defense.

There has never been a better time to be a Xavier fan.

[UCGRAD4X]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona or WV would also make this an interesting bracket.

[XUMIOH12]

we love starting threads about seeding!

[XUMIOH12]

The Seton Hall loss stung because of its blowout nature and because it came on the heels of a massive win, but that sting should wear off as the week goes on. While it would've been incredible to see us as a 1-seed (and we still have a shot), it's hard not to be excited about where we are now.

We're done playing in hostile gyms and the only regular season game left is the next stop on the revenge tour, so it should be a gratifying one.

Then it's onto the tournament(s), and this team has looked great on a neutral court. It's also so nice to go into a Selection Sunday without a shred of anxiety. And once we're there, we have an incredibly deep and experienced team that plays an uncommon and difficult to plan for defense.

There has never been a better time to be a Xavier fan.

we still have a pretty good shot at a 1 seed. Just have to win our next 4 games. great time to be a xavier fan, but definitely a little anxiety about seeing how the bracket turns out and what kind of matchups we have.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona or WV would also make this an interesting bracket.

Yeah, noticed that as well.

Also, that Midwest bracket is pretty rough. Wouldn't be much of a reward for Kansas if they are the #1 overall seed.

[XMuskieFTW]

I wouldn't say we are done playing in hostile gyms yet. Last year for the BE final, the place was like 90-95% Nova fans. Would love to see a rematch where we can represent at least 20% of the fans attending.

[ChicagoX]

Well Lunardi's latest bracket is interesting - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Zero chance the committee would actually make this 2nd round matchup happen, but would be something else if they actually did.

Dayton will likely play themselves down to an 8 or 9 seed and lose in the first round. They're definitely trending down right now. Neither team scares me though, and compared to all of the other 7-10 match-ups, I'd rather play the winner of this game than any of the others.

[UCGRAD4X]

Although we only have one regular season game, many teams have two, and the way this season has gone, particularly of late, teams ahead of us can still rack up losses.

Could happen.

JWB (Just Win, Baby)

[GoMuskies]

I wouldn't say we are done playing in hostile gyms yet. Last year for the BE final, the place was like 90-95% Nova fans. Would love to see a rematch where we can represent at least 20% of the fans attending.

Seton Hall in the semis could certainly be a hostile environment.

[XUMIOH12]

Seton Hall in the semis could certainly be a hostile environment.

save for the most unique circumstances, its tough to call any neutral court game a hostile environment.

[Emp]

save for the most unique circumstances, its tough to call any neutral court game a hostile environment.

Like Duke or NC in Raleigh? Kentucky in Louisville? Nova in Philly? SYracuse in MSG? Hell , Nova or SH in MSG for the BET? Please.

[Musketeer15]

Remaining schedules for potential 1 seeds:

Oklahoma:
3/1 vs Baylor
3/5 @TCU
3/9-3/12 Big 12 Tournament

North Carolina:
2/29 vs Syracuse
3/5 @Duke
3/9-3/12 ACC Tournament

Virginia:
3/1 @ Clemson
3/5 vs Louisville
3/9-3/12 ACC Tournament

Michigan State:
3/2 @ Rutgers
3/5 vs Ohio State
3/10-3/13 Big Ten Tournament

Kansas:
2/29 @ Texas
3/5 vs Iowa State
3/9-3/12 Big 12 Tournament

Villanova:
3/1 vs DePaul
3/5 vs G'Town
3/10-3/12 Big East Tournament

Xavier:
3/5 vs Creighton
3/10-12 Big East Tournament

[THRILLHOUSE]

Remaining schedules for potential 1 seeds:

Oklahoma:
3/1 vs Baylor
3/5 @TCU
3/9-3/12 Big 12 Tournament

North Carolina:
2/29 vs Syracuse
3/5 @Duke
3/9-3/12 ACC Tournament

Virginia:
3/1 @ Clemson
3/5 vs Louisville
3/9-3/12 ACC Tournament

Michigan State:
3/2 @ Rutgers
3/5 vs Ohio State
3/10-3/13 Big Ten Tournament

Kansas:
2/29 @ Texas
3/5 vs Iowa State
3/9-3/12 Big 12 Tournament

Xavier:
3/5 vs Creighton
3/10-12 Big East Tournament

I'll add Villanova for ya:

Villanova:
3/1 vs DePaul
3/5 vs G'Town
3/10-3/12 Big East Tournament

[X-band '01]

There's a lot of rules for that type of stuff. If you played someone at least twice I think they now try to avoid until the final 8. If you play once then they try to avoid the first round. I think there's something with playing another conference team but don't recall that. If the top 4 in your league are all top 4 seeds they all have to be in different brackets.

If you play any team twice, the earliest you can face off against one another is the Sweet 16. Play any team once and they can play as early as the Round of 32. Only when teams play each other 3 times are they not allowed to play each other until the Elite 8. This is because of unbalanced scheduling in other major conferences.

[XUMIOH12]

Like Duke or NC in Raleigh? Kentucky in Louisville? Nova in Philly? SYracuse in MSG? Hell , Nova or SH in MSG for the BET? Please.

i mean are there going to be no Xavier fans there? I feel like in the Big East Tournament there will be enough Xaiver people there where it wont be that bad.

[X-band '01]

Xavier long ago sold out its allottment of Big East Tournament tickets; I wouldn't worry about being under-represented at all.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier long ago sold out its allottment of Big East Tournament tickets; I wouldn't worry about being under-represented at all.

What is that, like 500 tickets?

[THRILLHOUSE]

What is that, like 500 tickets?

http://i.imgur.com/wirXNSF.gif

[MuskieCinci]

I would also be pretty surprised if Seton Hall can turn MSG into a hostile environment against us. I know they are nearby, but they're not exactly known for their rabid fan base.

[Muskie]

What is that, like 500 tickets?
Last I heard their were something like 1200 ticket packages claimed?

[xukeith]

Very surprised by the composite rankings this morning.
We dropped 6 spots, from 5th to 11th. Guess it's good we didn't lose last week.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm


http://bracketmatrix.com/