Why Does Sagarin Hate the Big East?

[GoMuskies]

I don't mean that Jeff Sagarin hates the Big East. He's got a formula that's proven to be pretty good, and he just applies it. But his formula really does not think much of the Big East this year. It's particularly hard on Providence, and it has been significantly undervaluing Xavier as compared to other metrics all year. Anyone have any thoughts as to why? I have a great deal of respect for the Sagarin methodology, so this has me a bit concerned. Here is how the Big East currently stacks up according to Sagarin:


3 Villanova
12 Xavier-Ohio
27 Butler
41 Providence
42 Creighton
47 Seton Hall
51 Georgetown
97 Marquette
142 DePaul
213 St. John's

[X-man]

Sagarin has the Big East ranked 5th as a conference today. And it is MUCH closer to being 3rd than being 6th. I don't see this as evidence of "conference hate".

[paulxu]

and it has been significantly undervaluing Xavier as compared to other metrics all year. Anyone have any thoughts as to why?

I can't find his ranking list yet, but he does have us as a 1 seed which is good valuation. (I think these are his seeding in USA Today)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2016/01/28/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-north-carolina-xavier-oklahoma-iowa/79450170/

Edit: maybe that's not Sagarin's projection but somebody else's. It just came up when I was trying to find his stuff.

[GoMuskies]

I can't find his ranking list yet, but he does have us as a 1 seed which is good valuation. (I think these are his seeding in USA Today)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2016/01/28/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-north-carolina-xavier-oklahoma-iowa/79450170/

These are Shelby Mast's projections.

[nuts4xu]

Computers don't hate, people hate.

You can't pour hater-ade into a hard drive.

C'mon Go, you are smarter than that.

[paulxu]

These are Shelby Mast's projections.

Gotcha: I'm following KPI a lot more closely, because he and Pomeroy were the best at picking the field last year.
You really need to be in the Top 50 in KPI to be considered.
Right now we only have 3 there, with another 3 between 51-65. Need to get some of the other 3 in his top 50 by season's end.

http://www.kpisports.net/rankings/kpibasketball/

[GoMuskies]

Well nuts, I think it's pretty clear from my post that I don't actually think there are any nefarious intentions here. It's just that I tend to give Sagarin's ratings a lot of weight. And if those rankings undervalue Xavier compared to other ratings (and essentially consider top 10 Providence to be the same quality as your typical Bubble team), that gives me some pause.

[Xville]

I don't really care if we get 5-6 teams into the tournament from the Big East. That does zero for the conference unless they actually win a few games. I'd rather have the big 3 (Xavier, Providence and Nova) this year go, and each win a few games..I think that would do a lot more for the conference as a whole. That, and have Xavier make the final four.

[nuts4xu]

Well nuts, I think it's pretty clear from my post that I don't actually think there are any nefarious intentions here. It's just that I tend to give Sagarin's ratings a lot of weight. And if those rankings undervalue Xavier compared to other ratings (and essentially consider top 10 Providence to be the same quality as your typical Bubble team), that gives me some pause.

I know, just bustin chops.

Serious question, does the tourney committee weigh the Sagarin ratings heavily? It is one of the factors they consider, correct? I don't think I have seen the list of factors they consider in a while.

I was watching a game (can't recall who was even playing) last night on ESPN that showed Lunardi has us as the best #2 seed, behind Nova as the "weakest" #1 seed. If we can keep this line and enter the tourney as a #2, I will take it.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier as a #2 seed? Yeah, I guess I'd be willing to take that. :)

[waggy]

If you look at his "Recent" ratings column, you'll get numbers you like better, like Providence #25 and Creighton #36. And Creighton and GTown's relative in conference success could be having some bearing on things?

[waggy]

Another thing might be, even teams at the bottom of the conference playing tighter than expected games. They don't have to win to have an effect on the other teams ratings.

[XU '11]

Pomeroy has similar numbers for Big East teams:

4 Villanova
15 Xavier
34 Creighton
37 Butler
38 Seton Hall
43 Providence
50 Georgetown
120 Marquette
160 DePaul
253 St. John's

4th ranked conference overall (Pac-12, Big East and Big Ten are very close for 3rd through 5th).

[xubrew]

I know, just bustin chops.

Serious question, does the tourney committee weigh the Sagarin ratings heavily? It is one of the factors they consider, correct? I don't think I have seen the list of factors they consider in a while.

I was watching a game (can't recall who was even playing) last night on ESPN that showed Lunardi has us as the best #2 seed, behind Nova as the "weakest" #1 seed. If we can keep this line and enter the tourney as a #2, I will take it.

Not really. They reference the power rankings, but only generally and they don't really value a specific one, and they really don't let it make their minds up for them. It's a committee, and like any committee, be it a hiring committee, party planning committee, rules committee, or whatever, they're going to decide for themselves what they value.

I think road wins are going to be extremely important FWIW.

[Cheesehead]

because it's facist!!!

[paulxu]

Hah! Dance Card has 2 BE #1 seeds.

I wonder if ESPN would have a complete meltdown if that came to pass.

[muskiefan82]

the meltdown will come if the Big East puts three teams in the Final Four like they did back in 86. THAT would be something.

[GoMuskies]

'85 on the Big East. 1986 was Pervis Ellison.

[muskiefan82]

My bad. I claim the over 30 year old memory exemption.

[XUFan09]

I think road wins are going to be extremely important FWIW.

And because of this, winning at Providence after losing at home to Georgetown was likely a net positive compared to the opposite outcome. Road records and tough road wins are important, and there's no bonus for going undefeated at home on top of the wins themselves.


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