Lunardi's Bracketology 1/18/16

[FIGHTING MUSKETEER]

We are a #2 seed and 5 BE teams in.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[GoMuskies]

Wichita State/Valpo would suck for a 2nd round matchup. I'd take any of the other projected 7s and 10s over those two (other than Butler, of course).

Also interesting that Clemson is in the first four out category after beating Louisville, Duke and Miami in consecutive outings. Imagine where they were before that stretch!

[XMuskieFTW]

I'm down for a St Louis-->Chicago-->Houston setup.

[X-band '01]

Clemson had bad losses to UMass and Minnesota early in the year - that's why they're a bubble team even with a slate of impressive ACC wins.

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/14593026/behind-bracket-joe-lunardi-importance-winning-road

Importance of winning on the road by Lunardi.

[X-band '01]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/14593026/behind-bracket-joe-lunardi-importance-winning-road

Importance of winning on the road by Lunardi.

Naturally, Cal and their 1-6 road record merit a 9 seed.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Xavier still a 1 seed in Palm's updated bracketology after GT game.

[X-Fan]

Heard this second hand since I'm not an ESPN Insider...

On X's Championship chances, Lunardi said: "I'd exclude X, whom I greatly admire but view as too much of an overachiever to win six games in the tournament."

IMO, that's great bulletin board material for March. Thanks Joe!

[X-man]

Heard this second hand since I'm not an ESPN Insider...

On X's Championship chances, Lunardi said: "I'd exclude X, whom I greatly admire but view as too much of an overachiever to win six games in the tournament."

IMO, that's great bulletin board material for March. Thanks Joe!

Lunardi is an ESPN tool. I believe that he is part of the ESPN team that attempts to "recreate" the RPI numbers, but somehow generally gets numbers lower that the real ones for teams in the Big East and higher than the real ones for teams in the "Power 5" and the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC (which ESPN televises).

[xudash]

Lunardi is an ESPN tool. I believe that he is part of the ESPN team that attempts to "recreate" the RPI numbers, but somehow generally gets numbers lower that the real ones for teams in the Big East and higher than the real ones for teams in the "Power 5" and the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC (which ESPN televises).

Plus he's had to witness the substantial separation in program success between St. Joe's and Xavier.

[Caveat]

Lunardi is an ESPN tool. I believe that he is part of the ESPN team that attempts to "recreate" the RPI numbers, but somehow generally get numbers lower that the real ones for teams in the Big East and higher than the real ones for teams in the "Power 5" and the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC (which ESPN televises).

It's a marketing / perception issue more than anything else.

The reality is that Xavier sits right on the line when it comes to perception because the school has never made a "Final Four" (setting aside the idiocy of attaching so much significance to playing in a game that doesn't involve a championship trophy) -- and they'll continue to be the first time people brush off in these situations because of that. They're acknowledged as a good program with a huge "Yeah, but..." because of that fact.

Make it, and the media narrative will change about Xavier forever. No pressure.

[bleedXblue]

Plus he's had to witness the substantial separation in program success between St. Joe's and Xavier.

I dint know St Joes was still playing basketball

[scoscox]

It's a marketing / perception issue more than anything else.

The reality is that Xavier sits right on the line when it comes to perception because the school has never made a "Final Four" (setting aside the idiocy of attaching so much significance to playing in a game that doesn't involve a championship trophy) -- and they'll continue to be the first time people brush off in these situations because of that. They're acknowledged as a good program with a huge "Yeah, but..." because of that fact.

Make it, and the media narrative will change about Xavier forever. No pressure.

Yes, and it hurts us that are games are exclusively covered by FS1 instead of ESPN. Still get nationwide coverage and I love the broadcast, but they are essentially ostracized by everyone associated with ESPN, which has far stronger coverage of college basketball.

[X-band '01]

It would be funny as hell if UConn ever decides to become an FBS independent in football and rejoin the Big East. If that happens, I'd love to see the Big East and American trade media rights where the Big East goes back to the Mothership and the American moves over to Fox.

[D-West & PO-Z]

He also excluded Nova from being a championship contender. So of the 8 1 and 2 seeds in his bracket he named 6 of them contenders, excluding Nova and Xavier.

He then also named all 3 seeds as contenders (Maryland, Mich St, Iowa, and Oregon) and then also threw in Louisville and UK.

So he not only said XU wasnt a legit contender but he proceeded to name 12 schools that were other than us or Nova.

So his excuse for Xavier was we are too much of an overachiever. So because he and others didnt expect us to be this good that means we arent good enough to win it all? Ok, great logic Joe.

[bobbiemcgee]

For 4.2 million a yr., I 'd play on the Cartoon Channel. A-10 gets 350,000.

[xuwin]

Why are Xavier fans so repulsed by the idea that everybody doesn't think that Xavier is the greatest thing since sliced bread and that anybody that doesn't is a moron?

[GoMuskies]

Why have some people never visited another fan's messageboard and have the impression that Xavier fans are somehow unique in this regard?

[D-West & PO-Z]

Why are Xavier fans so repulsed by the idea that everybody doesn't think that Xavier is the greatest thing since sliced bread and that anybody that doesn't is a moron?

I dont think that at all but how can you take someone serious who names 12 teams as national title contenders this year and excludes 2 top 5 teams from that list and the reason he gives for one of them is that they are too big of overachievers? I mean at least say something of substance like our PG play is too young and inconsistent or something.

[Cheesehead]

Lunardi is not on the committee. F- him. It doesn't matter. It's his OPINION.

[Xville]

I don't know whether or not X has the horses to win the whole thing, but I think I can safely say Nova has zero chance of winning the whole thing. They have clear deficiences to win 6 games against tournament competition at neutral sites.

[bobbiemcgee]

Heard this second hand since I'm not an ESPN Insider...

On X's Championship chances, Lunardi said: "I'd exclude X, whom I greatly admire but view as too much of an overachiever to win six games in the tournament."


Doesn't make any sense. But then I got a C in logic @ X.

[xufan2434]

I mean in all honesty, I don't necessarily disagree with him. I would say X is right there but I agree that it's hard to say a team can win it all without ever making it to the Final 4. And yes, you can say it's a different team and new year and shouldn't matter if they're one of the best. But I do think it matters. The players know how big it would be to get this program to their first Final 4. Have to remember Mack has never made it past the Sweet 16 in his young career as well. There are things to learn from when teams make it that far and there's a confidence and experience factor that are huge parts of late March runs. Although this team has achieved great things this year, they still need to beat a top dog. Getting to the Final 4 alone is going to require at least one win against an elite program more than likely. Only one they've played this year is Nova and got crushed. Obviously some circumstances gave that result, but it still remains true. Stand up against Nova and there's a start

[Caveat]

He also excluded Nova from being a championship contender. So of the 8 1 and 2 seeds in his bracket he named 6 of them contenders, excluding Nova and Xavier.

He then also named all 3 seeds as contenders (Maryland, Mich St, Iowa, and Oregon) and then also threw in Louisville and UK.

So he not only said XU wasnt a legit contender but he proceeded to name 12 schools that were other than us or Nova.

So his excuse for Xavier was we are too much of an overachiever. So because he and others didnt expect us to be this good that means we arent good enough to win it all? Ok, great logic Joe.

Xavier *is* over-achieving this year from a certain point of view -- they're playing a lot of guys who the recruitniks had ranked as non-superstar players, the only guy generating any NBA buzz is 1st year player, and the head coach has never coached in a Final Four.

I don't have time to research it, but I'll bet most of the schools he listed as "can win it all" have at least 1 5-star recruit and/or McDonalds All-American on their rosters, or multiple guys who are mentioned as NBA draft picks, or a coach that has previously played in a Final Four, etc. I totally get the national media looking at this situation and saying "Nice story, they'll get buzzsawed once they play a Kansas, North Carolina or Oklahoma w/ NBA talent on the roster and a top-pedigree head coach on the bench." That's the way the national media thinks and works when they're confronted by these kinds of questions. The only thing you can do is keep playing and go prove them wrong.

[nasdadjr]

Wichita State/Valpo would suck for a 2nd round matchup. I'd take any of the other projected 7s and 10s over those two (other than Butler, of course).

Also interesting that Clemson is in the first four out category after beating Louisville, Duke and Miami in consecutive outings. Imagine where they were before that stretch!

Are you nuts give me this match-up over any of the other ones

[XUMIOH12]

Are you nuts give me this match-up over any of the other ones

those are 2 very good teams, but i think we actually match up pretty well against both of them.

[smileyy]

Has any team won the title in their first trip to the Final Four?

[Masterofreality]

Lunardi is an ESPN tool. I believe that he is part of the ESPN team that attempts to "recreate" the RPI numbers, but somehow generally gets numbers lower that the real ones for teams in the Big East and higher than the real ones for teams in the "Power 5" and the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC (which ESPN televises).

Exactly. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain"

I don't.

[XUFan09]

Guys, "overachiever" is a blatant cover-up for the fact that he was wrong in the preseason. It's not really possible to have overachieved for this long of a time in a season.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[GoMuskies]

Are you nuts give me this match-up over any of the other ones

Wichita State is now a 6 seed as currently projected, so no need to worry.

[GoMuskies]

Has any team won the title in their first trip to the Final Four?

Oregon

[XUMIOH12]

Has any team won the title in their first trip to the Final Four?

Yes. Oregon did in 1939. The first NCAA tournament.....with an 8 team field.....pretty sure the NIT was a more highly regarded tournament at that point as well.

[GoMuskies]

Yes. Oregon did in 1939. The first NCAA tournament.....with an 8 team field.....pretty sure the NIT was a more highly regarded tournament at that point as well.

I beat you to the joke!

[XUMIOH12]

I beat you to the joke!

haha reps to you for that. Im glad someone else was on the same page as me with that!

[xeus]

I totally get the national media looking at this situation and saying "Nice story, they'll get buzzsawed once they play a Kansas, North Carolina or Oklahoma w/ NBA talent on the roster and a top-pedigree head coach on the bench."

I agree, and that's absolutely a legitimate position to take. I watched the Kansas-Kentucky game and thought, wow ... we're good, but all this "national championship" talk means nothing until we beat one of these teams. And we probably have to beat several of them of that caliber in March to win a title.

Just keep winning.

[scoscox]

By "overachieved", I take it he thinks that Xavier's relative talent is not as good as its record and I couldn't disagree more. I think Xavier has underachieved in that we've had the more talented team in every game we've played in, yet we still lost two. Other than X, UNC probably is the only team with more talent. From a program perspective, yes we have overachieved, but I don't think this team is really overachieving at all. All a matter of perspective I guess. Meanwhile, Iowa and Texas A&M are overachieving and Kansas and Virginia are underachieving, but that's not what he really means here I guess.

[scoscox]

I agree, and that's absolutely a legitimate position to take. I watched the Kansas-Kentucky game and thought, wow ... we're good, but all this "national championship" talk means nothing until we beat one of these teams. And we probably have to beat several of them of that caliber in March to win a title.

Just keep winning.

The things that worries me most is the small, quick guards that those teams have that could give us problems. Still think we're better top to bottom and definitely have a frontcourt advantage over both by a mile, but we've definitely had issues coming out and turning it over and getting taken out of our game against small, quick guards that can shoot.

[X-band '01]

Has any team won the title in their first trip to the Final Four?

UConn (1999). In fact, they've won the national title in 4 out of 5 trips - only in 2009 did they lose in the Final Four.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Guys, "overachiever" is a blatant cover-up for the fact that he was wrong in the preseason. It's not really possible to have overachieved for this long of a time in a season.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

Yeah and because he was wrong about us, we dont have a chance? Again, ok Joe.

[xufan2434]

I agree, and that's absolutely a legitimate position to take. I watched the Kansas-Kentucky game and thought, wow ... we're good, but all this "national championship" talk means nothing until we beat one of these teams. And we probably have to beat several of them of that caliber in March to win a title.

Just keep winning.

Completely agree. IMO, can't really pick X to beat out the rest of the country and cut down the nets until they at least prove they can beat the top dog in their own conference. Start with beating Nova and we'll go from there. Don't even trust Nova to make any kind of run, but they would be the 1st step

[D-West & PO-Z]

Completely agree. IMO, can't really pick X to beat out the rest of the country and cut down the nets until they at least prove they can beat the top dog in their own conference. Start with beating Nova and we'll go from there. Don't even trust Nova to make any kind of run, but they would be the 1st step

It isnt picking them to win it is acknowledging them as a contender. He mentioned 12 teams as contenders, 12, yet excluded X from the contender list. It wasnt like he picked all blue bloods either he had the likes of Oregon and Texas A&M on that list.

I'm not trying to act like we are being slighted by everyone either because a lot of analysts have put us in that discussion, but how can anyone name 12 teams in college basketball this year who have a chance to win and not name Xavier? Lets be real.

[smileyy]

UConn (1999). In fact, they've won the national title in 4 out of 5 trips - only in 2009 did they lose in the Final Four.

Thanks for digging that up!

[xufan2434]

It isnt picking them to win it is acknowledging them as a contender. He mentioned 12 teams as contenders, 12, yet excluded X from the contender list. It wasnt like he picked all blue bloods either he had the likes of Oregon and Texas A&M on that list.

I'm not trying to act like we are being slighted by everyone either because a lot of analysts have put us in that discussion, but how can anyone name 12 teams in college basketball this year who have a chance to win and not name Xavier? Lets be real.

No I get your point on that too. No way Oregon and A&M have a better chance than X. Honestly, I'd expect both of those teams to be on upset alert depending on who they draw in the tournament. Also points to why Lunardi is who he is. Great at predicting the bracket and where teams will be seeded... And then never used to actually predict what happens after that

[smileyy]

Also points to why Lunardi is who he is. Great at predicting the bracket and where teams will be seeded... And then never used to actually predict what happens after that

"Bracketology" as the practice of predicting the selection committee's results is going to be as flawed as the selection committee's selections at predicting success. That is, someone like Lunardi, et.al. can easily look bad because the committee is bad (though much much better than they have in the past)

[xufan2434]

"Bracketology" as the practice of predicting the selection committee's results is going to be as flawed as the selection committee's selections at predicting success. That is, someone like Lunardi, et.al. can easily look bad because the committee is bad (though much much better than they have in the past)

My point is that Lunardi isn't used as an analyst to predict who is going to win which games and isn't used to rank teams. He simply puts together the bracket based on the information given and based on his experience of how the committee will evaluate. Very good at what he does, but points to why "his contenders" list is pretty irrelevant

[smileyy]

My point is that Lunardi isn't used as an analyst to predict who is going to win which games and isn't used to rank teams. He simply puts together the bracket based on the information given and based on his experience of how the committee will evaluate. Very good at what he does, but points to why "his contenders" list is pretty irrelevant

Yes, that. I think that's what I was trying to say.

[waggy]

This tells me that ESPN is scared shitless by Xavier.

And they should be. F-em.

[Snipe]

Lunardi released his new Bracketology today and we were a 2 seed in St. Louis. I would take that right now. Carolina was a 1 and they lost today.

We have some tough sledding to come the rest of the way that makes things like this navel gazing rather pointless.

[paulxu]

2 other ranked teams played today. Both lost.

[markchal]

This tells me that ESPN is scared shitless by Xavier.

And they should be. F-em.

Uhhhh, what? They could care less about us. We have no effect whatsoever on ESPN.

[XU-PA]

2 other ranked teams played today. Both lost.

4 ranked (top 20) played, 3 lost