Predicting when and where we will play

[theprofessor]

So, a few years ago I was determined to travel to watch X in the tourney, so I analyzed the data to make an educated guess on when and where X would play. I was able to narrow it down and book frequent flier tickets (which you can cancel within 24 hours) in advance of the selection show. Although I probably can't make it this year (unless we are in Louisville or Columbus), I thought I would share my analysis.

We can probably safely assume that X will be a 7-10 seed, so we would be placed in a pod with a 1 or a 2 seed. I think there are 9 candidates for those seeds. Guessing on where the committee will place those teams, I have X going to one of the following sites:
Uk – lou (thu/sat)
Vil – pit (thu/sat) (X won't be placed here cuz we are in the big east)
Wis – col (fri/sun)
Duke – char (fri / sun)
Va – char (fri/sun)
Kan – oma (fri / sun)
Az – por (thu/sat)
Gonz – sea (fri / sun)
Ist – oma (fri/sun)

It doesn't narrow things down a lot. But it does estimate that X has a 75% chance of playing on friday.

[xu82]

So, a few years ago I was determined to travel to watch X in the tourney, so I analyzed the data to make an educated guess on when and where X would play. I was able to narrow it down and book frequent flier tickets (which you can cancel within 24 hours) in advance of the selection show. Although I probably can't make it this year (unless we are in Louisville or Columbus), I thought I would share my analysis.

We can probably safely assume that X will be a 7-10 seed, so we would be placed in a pod with a 1 or a 2 seed. I think there are 9 candidates for those seeds. Guessing on where the committee will place those teams, I have X going to one of the following sites:
Uk – lou (thu/sat)
Vil – pit (thu/sat) (X won't be placed here cuz we are in the big east)
Wis – col (fri/sun)
Duke – char (fri / sun)
Va – char (fri/sun)
Kan – oma (fri / sun)
Az – por (thu/sat)
Gonz – sea (fri / sun)
Ist – oma (fri/sun)

It doesn't narrow things down a lot. But it does estimate that X has a 75% chance of playing on friday.

An extra day for JP is a good thing.

[LadyMuskie]

(stands and clicks heels together)

not out west. . . not out west . . .not out west

I know they always say they place teams close to home, but every year there is some outlier that is from some eastern state and winds up playing in Juneau, Alaska or some such nonsensical place. I just assume that not be us.

[94GRAD]

So, a few years ago I was determined to travel to watch X in the tourney, so I analyzed the data to make an educated guess on when and where X would play. I was able to narrow it down and book frequent flier tickets (which you can cancel within 24 hours) in advance of the selection show. Although I probably can't make it this year (unless we are in Louisville or Columbus), I thought I would share my analysis.

We can probably safely assume that X will be a 7-10 seed, so we would be placed in a pod with a 1 or a 2 seed. I think there are 9 candidates for those seeds. Guessing on where the committee will place those teams, I have X going to one of the following sites:
Uk – lou (thu/sat)
Vil – pit (thu/sat) (X won't be placed here cuz we are in the big east)
Wis – col (fri/sun)
Duke – char (fri / sun)
Va – char (fri/sun)
Kan – oma (fri / sun)
Az – por (thu/sat)
Gonz – sea (fri / sun)
Ist – oma (fri/sun)

It doesn't narrow things down a lot. But it does estimate that X has a 75% chance of playing on friday.

Wis will play in Omaha. 70 miles closer than Columbus.
If we're an 8 or 9, we will play in Louisville(UK). Omaha(Wisco), Charlotte(UVA/Duke) or Portland(Ariz) depending who the 3 other #1's are.
If were a 7, we will play in Charlotte(UVA/Duke), Portland(Ariz), Omaha(KU), Seattle(Godzilla), Louisville(Iowa St).
If were are a 6(doubtful), we most likely be in Columbus/Pittsburgh/Louisville based on the teams that will be the 3 seed.

[Xavier]

I'd love to play in Omaha. I saw on Holylandofhooops that Creighton fans snagged a bunch of those tickets and would likely root for X.

[xukeith]

When we get an 8 seed or 9.
Those 4 bad losses hurt to prevent a 7(in my opinion).
Hope we get past first game then play anyone BUT KY.

[Snipe]

I want Kentucky!

[crolfes12]

When we get an 8 seed or 9.
Those 4 bad losses hurt to prevent a 7(in my opinion).
Hope we get past first game then play anyone BUT KY.

Committee is known for putting more weight on good wins than bad losses

[MADXSTER]

When listening to the pundits, bubble teams were talking about their 4 wins vs top 50 teams. Xavier has 6 wins vs top 25 teams. Xavier's bad losses aren't nearly as bad as other team's bad losses. Everything is relative.

[X-Fan]

I want Kentucky!
While intriguing, I want nothing to do with UK's size and athleticism. If you think X struggled to get a shot off against Nova, it would be just as bad if not worse against UK.

[bourbonman]

I want Kentucky!

Not me. Maybe next year, but I want to play the 2nd weekend this year and this wouldn't work out.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X is a 7 in Omaha against BYU.
X is a 8 in louisville vs VD/UC

[waggy]

If X is the strongest 8 then they shouldn't be in UK's region. Shouldn't.

[Musketeer_15]

If we are playing in Louisville then I would love to play OSU in the 8/9 matchup. Just put Remy on Russell and we can easily pull out the W.

[MADXSTER]

Most had X as a 6 if they won the BE. Cannot see them bumping down to a 9,10.

X as a 7 seed IMO

[OTRMUSKIE]

According to dance card we are a 5. I will be very disappointed if x gets a 8/9. They have way too many good wins that outweighs bad losses, I think :unsure:

[DC Muskie]

We've had the same amount of top 25 wins as Kentucky.

I'm guessing an 8. Then we get to play Kentucky.

[Musketeer_15]

According to dance card we are a 5. I will be very disappointed if x gets a 8/9. They have way too many good wins that outweighs bad losses, I think :unsure:

Dance card also has UD as one of the first few teams out. If they are right then UD might want to get the riot squad in the ghetto because those kids will not be happy one bit. I hope they are right though :pointandlaugh:

[paulxu]

When listening to the pundits, bubble teams were talking about their 4 wins vs top 50 teams. Xavier has 6 wins vs top 25 teams. Xavier's bad losses aren't nearly as bad as other team's bad losses. Everything is relative.


Dance card also has UD as one of the first few teams out. If they are right then UD might want to get the riot squad in the ghetto because those kids will not be happy one bit. I hope they are right though :pointandlaugh:

Despite Dayton's high RPI...they have a grand total of 1, count 'em, 1..top 50 win.

[XU '11]

If X is the strongest 8 then they shouldn't be in UK's region. Shouldn't.

That's not how it works.

They'll take the four 8 seeds and place them to minimize travel.

[The Coz]

It's safe to assume anyone wanting Kentucky never played the game.

[XU '11]

It's safe to assume anyone wanting Kentucky never played the game.

I want Kentucky...

In Indianapolis on April 6th.

[xsteve1]

I'm going to guess X as 8 against Dump as a 9.

[Strange Brew]

I'm going to guess X as 8 against Dump as a 9.

I think we deserve a 7 and UD should be an 11 at best. One top 50 win? They beat no one this year and were smoked by UCONN.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I really think we deserve a 7 seed. Ugh, who knows though. There are so many variables and never know what the committee is thinking/considering.

[Xavier]

It's safe to assume anyone wanting Kentucky never played the game.

I can see why people wouldn't hate it. I think anything beyond one win will be great. Everyone would agree X has a very very slim chance of beating Kentucky. Same with Vandy and Ole Miss (both took UK to overtime). So knowing anything beyond one win is big, why not take a shot at UK. Would a sweet 16 be awesome? Hell yeah, we'd remember it for years. If somehow everything aligned and we beat UK? We'd be remembered for ever.

[XUFan09]

I really think we deserve a 7 seed. Ugh, who knows though. There are so many variables and never know what the committee is thinking/considering.
I think too many seed competitors did well for me to feel confident in a 7 seed. I think it could happen but I'm worried.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I'll predict XU-ud in a 7/10 matchup with either Duke or Virginia as the 2 seed. I would predict the committee going full troll and having the winner of X-ud play Arizona but don't think they would send both Xavier and dayton out west.

[crolfes12]

Prediction:

7 Xavier
10 Oklahoma State

2 Arizona

[mistabeecee41]

Welp, out west we go!

[xsteve1]

Possible X Zona 2nd round in the works. X OSU winner gets Zona is very possible.
Hope we get a 6 for being shipped west.

[mistabeecee41]

Fuck in love it.

[GIMMFD]

Fuck in love it.

Not so fast, Baylor is match up nightmare for us. I'm not excited about getting them at all.

[XUFan09]

I think too many seed competitors did well for me to feel confident in a 7 seed. I think it could happen but I'm worried.
What an idiot.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Anyone think we will get night game since we are playing play in team? More rest fro them?

[Xville]

I like the draw in that we can at least win a game and maybe two. I agree that Baylor is a bit of a matchup nightmare for us, but let's be honest...the three seeds are all extremely good that's why they are three seeds so it really doesn't matter who the three seed was going to be they were going to be a matchup problem for us.

It's a freaking joke that UCLA got in, and Texas got in easily...they have to stop rewarding crummy teams just because they are in a power conference...it's becoming a complete joke.

[GreatWhiteNorth]

We're getting some love from the committee for a 6 seed. I'm surprised to see Temple out. BE has 6 teams in is a good showing for this young league. Overall looking good.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Anyone think we will get night game since we are playing play in team? More rest fro them?

I am thinking so. Ole miss/BYU play 9pm tuesday, I doubt they make them play early Thur

[GuyFawkes38]

Thank you Doug Gotlieb for giving us a little motivation.

[xunorm]

Baylor at least plays a traditional line up, which we do well against. Gathers v. Stain could be fun to watch. Just need to solve the zone

[BandAid]

Baylor at least plays a traditional line up, which we do well against. Gathers v. Stain could be fun to watch. Just need to solve the zone

Need someone to hit some threes

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think we play pretty well vs a zone, passing to stain at top of key and going from there

[brownlavender]

is gottlieb talking??? i can't understand him, sounds like he has a d*** in his mouth

[PM Thor]

First Gottlieb is a complete idiot, even admitted he had X on the bubble and has no respect for the Big East as a whole. Complete jackass.
Second, dayton as a play in game at home makes me chortle. That's funny.

Third, I did pick X as a 6 out west, and I love it, first game is very winnable, along with the next potential one too.

[XUFan09]

I have a math test at 7...If the game is at that time, I will finally be getting DVR.

[markchal]

I have a math test at 7...If the game is at that time, I will finally be getting DVR.

Or skipping the math test.

[BMoreX]

Lot of "eye test" being thrown around by the committee chair

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12482305/a-first-look-every-team-2015-ncaa-tournament-basketball-field

Xavier Musketeers (32) : The Musketeers took their lumps in a tough Big East. In the process, they were forged into one of the nation's most well-rounded offenses. None of Xavier's regular rotation players uses more than a quarter of its their available possessions or shots when on the floor. All of them are efficient. One of them -- center Matt Stainbrook -- is an Uber driver.