Chance of making the dance

[OTRMUSKIE]

This site says if we get to 19 wins we will have a 81% chance of dancing.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/xavier-musketeers/bracketology

[Wheelhouse]

I would agree. You never know, but you have to figure if we win one more we're in. I just hope we get it on Monday and don't wait until Creighton. Let's keep this rolling.

[Wheelhouse]

And man, would I love to win that St. John's game. If we do I think it will help it us play confidently relaxed against Nova and give us our best chance to win.

[D-West & PO-Z]

A 7 seed would be huge. Rather be a 10 or 11 (not play in tho) than an 8 or 9 seed.

[Caveat]

Just avoiding the play-in game would make me happy.

[muskienick]

Just avoiding the play-in game would make me happy.

Can't we get over the seeming need to call it a "play-in" game. The only reason teams are relegated to playing in the first round (even though they might be higher seeds than others) is because those "others" won their conference tournament in exceedingly low-rated leagues. Check the RPI's of most of the teams slotted into first-round games and they will likely be much better than those of teams coming out of the Southland, MAAC, MEAC, etc.

[Michigan Muskie]

Can't we get over the seeming need to call it a "play-in" game. The only reason teams are relegated to playing in the first round (even though they might be higher seeds than others) is because those "others" won their conference tournament in exceedingly low-rated leagues. Check the RPI's of most of the teams slotted into first-round games and they will likely be much better than those of teams coming out of the Southland, MAAC, MEAC, etc.

I don't know Muskienick. Even though the NCAA wants to call it the Opening Round, it just doesn't feel that way. That means 60 teams get a bye in the first round. That's 88% of the field. So all labels aside, for me, the "real" first round of the tourney doesn't start until noon on Thursday. Heck, even all of the March Madness challenges allow brackets to be turned in all the way up to tip of the first Thursday game ... which indicates the main event hasn't really started yet even though eight teams played a game.

I do agree that many of the play-in teams are better than a lot of the automatic qualifiers. I am not here to argue against the value of the play-in round, I'm just not a proponent of calling it the first round.

Not that any of this matters. It's just a name ... a name that I don't want to see associated with XU this year!

[drudy23]

I don't care what they call it, it's a play-in game.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

I don't care what they call it, it's a play-in game.

I don't care, either, Drudy.

Nor am I worried.

[Masterofreality]

I don't care what they call it, it's a play-in game.

$1.2 million says it's the Tournament.

By the way. Win 3 games and the chance is 100%.

[drudy23]

There's zero chance we got a check for $1.2M for playing in the play-in-game last year. Really?

[94GRAD]

There's zero chance we got a check for $1.2M for playing in the play-in-game last year.

You're right, It was just a hair less.

[drudy23]

America and college sports are great....that or really greedy and corrupt. Or both at the same time.

[X-band '01]

Just avoiding the play-in game would make me happy.

Even 1 win down the stretch might be enough to do that at this stage. Look at the other bubble teams and tell me what argument they should have over Xavier at this point.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I've stated here before that I don't like that we were in the game but we were definitely in the tourney. Anyway the NCAA changed the name and are no longer calling it the first round.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Latest from dance card. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[X-band '01]

Pittsburgh? I'm calling shenanigans here.

[mohr5150]

Is it really possible that we are 16 teams better than OSU?

[danaandvictory]

All of these rating systems look beyond individual results to get a more holistic view of a team. As a result, X's poor record (2-9?) in close games doesn't hurt them as badly as it would in a completely win/loss based system. If X was, say, 6-5 in those games, there would be no question about their position as a Top 20 team.

This is why I find the Bracket Matrix a bit more reliable - partially the wisdom of crowds idea, but partially because a team with outlier results in close games like X is probably going to be seeded more accurately by the human rankers (especially given the Wellman Committee's fetishization of RPI).

[D-West & PO-Z]

Is it really possible that we are 16 teams better than OSU?

Their non conference SOS is 237. They played horrific teams. And are 6-7 vs top 100 we are 9-6. Our numbers are way better. But they would have by far the best player on the court if we played them.

[paulxu]

BTW, a tournament credit from last year was worth around $1.5 million over its 6 year payout.

Don't know how much X gets to keep in the BE, but that's how much their appearance was worth to the conference.

[LadyMuskie]

Is it really possible that we are 16 teams better than OSU?

I haven't seen them play every game, but the games I have seen they are not very good. When we've got it together and are playing well, we would kick their ass. I can definitely see us being 16 teams better than them.

[LadyMuskie]

Their non conference SOS is 237. They played horrific teams. And are 6-7 vs top 100 we are 9-6. Our numbers are way better. But they would have by far the best player on the court if we played them.

True, but collectively, based on the OSU games I've seen, I think we play better as a team when we're playing well. I think we'd win handily.

[bobbiemcgee]

Latest from dance card. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Hmmm, the 20 win flyers went from 100% to 4% with one loss.

[Titanxman04]

Hmmm, the 20 win flyers went from 100% to 4% with one loss.

Tough to explain a loss to Duquesne like that.

[Masterofreality]

Hmmm, the 20 win flyers went from 100% to 4% with one loss.

What a great league. We should still be in it. It would sure make for a lot less angst on this board. :rolleyes:

[Drew's Crew]

Hmmm, the 20 win flyers went from 100% to 4% with one loss.

And THAT'S why we needed to get the hell out of the A-10. Their top flight schools are solid programs but the bottom feeders are ruinous.

[bobbiemcgee]

What a great league. We should still be in it. It would sure make for a lot less angst on this board. :rolleyes:

Juan Bidoso raising his ugly head over there.

[MADXSTER]

And THAT'S why we needed to get the hell out of the A-10. Their top flight schools are solid programs but the bottom feeders are ruinous.

DePaul's expected RPI is 167. 5 A10 teams are worse. Being the 7th ranked league in the nation is still pretty good but has its flaws. The Big East really has no meaningless games and far fewer opportunities to really screw yourself.

[D-West & PO-Z]

True, but collectively, based on the OSU games I've seen, I think we play better as a team when we're playing well. I think we'd win handily.

Yeah I think we'd win as well.

[LA Muskie]

There's zero chance we got a check for $1.2M for playing in the play-in-game last year. Really?

We don't get the check. The Big East does. But play-in games earn a credit, which pays out over 6 years. Because the credit tends to be worth more each year, that game will net the Big East about $1.5mm over the next 6 years.

I don't know what the conference's policy is for allocation to member schools, but the unit pool would also include units earned by all other Big East schools.

There's actually an interesting article discussing how the 16 seeds hope for the play-in game for the reasonable prospect of earning two credits where they otherwise would only get one (unless they were the first ever to topple a 1 seed).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/17/college-basketball-tournament-first-four-dayton-money-shares/6534223/L

[LadyMuskie]

Is it really possible that we are 16 teams better than OSU?

If you want to see for yourself how "good" the 24th ranked team is, check out CBS. Michigan is trying to make it 3 wins in a row over OSU.

[GoMuskies]

Michigan has a big lead, but they're pretty awful. I fully expect that one to get tight again.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Also we are 11-8 vs top 100 and 4-3 vs top 25. If we can win out regular season we will be looking at a mighty fine seed. That being said this team can beat Duke on any given night as well as lose to a Duquesne. Hopefully the tide has turn and we will find out tomorrow.

[XU 87]

Hmmm, the 20 win flyers went from 100% to 4% with one loss.

I don't miss those days of "If we win this league game, our RPI will drop by about 5-6 spots."

[LadyMuskie]

Michigan has a big lead, but they're pretty awful. I fully expect that one to get tight again.

I agree that Michigan is terrible but OSU looks like crap today. It's thoroughly enjoyable!!

[D-West & PO-Z]

Also we are 11-8 vs top 100 and 4-3 vs top 25. If we can win out regular season we will be looking at a mighty fine seed. That being said this team can beat Duke on any given night as well as lose to a Duquesne. Hopefully the tide has turn and we will find out tomorrow.

Where are you seeing 11-8? I see us as 9-6 vs top 100 RPI. I do see us as 4-3 vs top 25 though. 5-4 vs top 50.

[DC Muskie]

If you want to see for yourself how "good" the 24th ranked team is, check out CBS. Michigan is trying to make it 3 wins in a row over OSU.

Sorry, this reads like they have beaten OSU in the last two meetings.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Where are you seeing 11-8? I see us as 9-6 vs top 100 RPI. I do see us as 4-3 vs top 25 though. 5-4 vs top 50.

They are probably counting top 25 wins in the top 100 meaning I am counting a few wins twice?
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Xavier.html

[mohr5150]

Is it really possible that we are 16 teams better than OSU?

Never mind. We are better than them. They suck, if the way they played against a very bad Michigan team says anything.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Sorry just saw expected record. So our record would be 11-8 if all goes well. So yes your numbers are correct.

[LadyMuskie]

Sorry, this reads like they have beaten OSU in the last two meetings.

Oops. Sorry took Raftery at his word when posting. I just looked it up. They lost to OSU back in January, but beat OSU both times they met last season. So they are now 3-1 against OSU in the last two seasons. I didn't look back any further.

[MuskieFN]

I don't miss those days of "If we win this league game, our RPI will drop by about 5-6 spots."


I did notice that St. John's went from 41 to 44 with Saturday's win over Seton Hall. Just an interesting aside because I can't recall something like that happening to X in the last couple years.

[Caveat]

Can't we get over the seeming need to call it a "play-in" game. The only reason teams are relegated to playing in the first round (even though they might be higher seeds than others) is because those "others" won their conference tournament in exceedingly low-rated leagues. Check the RPI's of most of the teams slotted into first-round games and they will likely be much better than those of teams coming out of the Southland, MAAC, MEAC, etc.

NCAA marketing desperately wants to attach more significance to the games. They can call it whatever they want -- it's a play-in game to the field of 64.

And it's garbage for X, because it forces us to drive to that glorified truck stop of a city on I-75 and play in front of those weirdo fans im a de facto road game.

[waggy]

The play in round or first round whatever, it's still the tournament to me because you get paid an equal share, and you are still alive for the national championship. To me, that's in.

[XMuskieFTW]

In the 19 brackets that were updated as of today, our average seed is 7.64. Really need to try and get a 6 or 7 if possible.

[Masterofreality]

Oh-ho-ho State just dropped to 41 in the RPI after the loss today....to a team that lost to NJIT.....AT HOME.

Fire Beaknose!!!!!

[X-band '01]

Juan Bidoso raising his ugly head over there.

Juan Bid only makes an appearance if Dayton and Davidson (yes, Davidson) fold down the stretch. Nobody else gets in without Otto Bid.

[X-band '01]

We don't get the check. The Big East does. But play-in games earn a credit, which pays out over 6 years. Because the credit tends to be worth more each year, that game will net the Big East about $1.5mm over the next 6 years.

I don't know what the conference's policy is for allocation to member schools, but the unit pool would also include units earned by all other Big East schools.

There's actually an interesting article discussing how the 16 seeds hope for the play-in game for the reasonable prospect of earning two credits where they otherwise would only get one (unless they were the first ever to topple a 1 seed).

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/17/college-basketball-tournament-first-four-dayton-money-shares/6534223/L

Here's an article from 2013 as it relates to Big East/Catholic 7 Units:

March 8, 2013 - Forbes Magazine (http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2013/03/08/the-catholic-7-will-retain-ncaa-tournament-units-worth-7-25-million-in-2013/)

The way I read it, the Catholic 7 get to split their own proceeds from the old Big East amongst themselves until they expire - this was part of their settlement of keeping the Big East name and MSG rights.

Xavier, Butler and Creighton all had to leave behind their units from the A-10, Horizon and Missouri Valley. Those pikers will just have to mooch off of Dayton and La Salle's units when Xavier runs out.

[LA Muskie]

My understanding is that the departing teams' units were in fact left to the Big East, but that the funds were to go to reimburse new Big East conference transition/startup costs and only any remainder would be distributed.

[Kahns Krazy]

I did notice that St. John's went from 41 to 44 with Saturday's win over Seton Hall. Just an interesting aside because I can't recall something like that happening to X in the last couple years.

Without doing all the math, I think it's more likely that their RPI score did not in fact go down with a loss, but that other teams leapfrogged them with road wins or better wins. They are in a tight bunch that has about one thousandth of a point either way separating 8 teams. That is different than in the old bad season days where beating the Dukes would actually lower our raw score.

[bigdiggins]

Juan Bid only makes an appearance if Dayton and Davidson (yes, Davidson) fold down the stretch. Nobody else gets in without Otto Bid.

Why so much more confidence in Davidson than Rhode Island?

Team Conf. W-L Tot. W-L RPI Rank

VCU 11-3 21-6 12

Rhode Island 11-3 19-6 63

Dayton 10-4 20-6 35

Davidson 10-4 19-6 57

[gladdenguy]

Lunardi has Xavier an 8 seed playing uDump with the winner getting Kentucky in Louisville.

sUCks now part of the last 4 byes.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


Palm has Xavier a 9 seed playing Iowa in Louisville with the winner getting Kentucky.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Another good site is Dratings. Has Xavier as the 4th seven seed.

http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

Bracketmatrix updated has Xavier at the 2nd nine seed

http://bracketmatrix.com/

And of course dance card again

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm


This should keep your Monday afternoon productive

[drudy23]

UD, Xavier, UC, Louisville, and UK all in the Midwest region? No way that even comes close to happening. Lunardi always puts "sexy" matchups in that he WANTS to see, but won't happen in reality.

[smileyy]

I don't care what they call it, it's a play-in game.

Seconded.

[xukeith]

$1.2 million says it's the Tournament.

By the way. Win 3 games and the chance is 100%.

I say win 6 games!!!!!!!!!!!

[xukeith]

Wow. Providence and SJU are all over the map. From being ranked as a top seed to a not great seed. So many opinions.

[X-band '01]

Why so much more confidence in Davidson than Rhode Island?

Team Conf. W-L Tot. W-L RPI Rank

VCU 11-3 21-6 12

Rhode Island 11-3 19-6 63

Dayton 10-4 20-6 35

Davidson 10-4 19-6 57

URI played an absolutely creampuff conference schedule. They have Fordham and Saint Louis 2X on their schedule this year. Their best win is a home win over UMass. That ain't paying the bills.

Davidson isn't much better, but their best wins are at home over Dayton and on the road at UMass (which somehow has an RPI in the Top 50).

[goldiewilson]

I would love to see a Xavier-UD matchup in the tourney. UD has a better coach and a better starting five, but has no bench. Xavier is better offensively, UD is better defensively.

Alas, I don't see it happening because I don't think that X and my Flyers are going to both make the dance. UD is running on empty with such a shortage of players. The loss to Duquesne Saturday was very damaging and very telling about their wearing down. I think X has a better chance of making it, but if you guys lose to Villanova and at Creighton on their senior day(no easy task) you are probably NIT bound as well.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X doesn't kNIT Mr Wilson that's what Dayton does. The only thing UD has that X doesn't is veneral disease. So please go back to your crappy conference and enjoy the NIT because that's where your heading. For the record X would destroy Dayton this year.

[waggy]

Omg

[GoMuskies]

I would also love for Xavier and Dayton to play in the NCAA Tournament, because that would mean Xavier was about to win an NCAA Tournament game. And I like it when that happens.

[goldiewilson]

X doesn't kNIT Mr Wilson that's what Dayton does. The only thing UD has that X doesn't is veneral disease. So please go back to your crappy conference and enjoy the NIT because that's where your heading. For the record X would destroy Dayton this year.

Destroy, huh? That's pretty amusing. I haven't seen Xavier doing a lot of "destroying" away from Cintas, save the Georgetown game. Hasn't your coach lost 21 or 22 of his last 30 games that were road/neutral? Seeing as how NCAA tourney games are played on neutral sites, if they met it would likely be a pretty close game that could go either way. However, since you use bold words like "destroy", if they were to meet maybe we could make a little wager. I am guessing with bold predictions like "destroy" you would be willing to give me a lot of points. I am always eager to make easy money.

[mid major]

The road is a little more treacherous for you guys than us. The only game you can afford to lose is probably VCU. Don't know if you can beat Rhody at home and ,speaking of Senior Day, your game with LaSalle is no gimme. You'll more than likely lose your coach so you better start looking.

[goldiewilson]

The road is a little more treacherous for you guys than us. The only game you can afford to lose is probably VCU. Don't know if you can beat Rhody at home and ,speaking of Senior Day, your game with LaSalle is no gimme. You'll more than likely lose your coach so you better start looking.

I totally agree with you. That is what I alluded to in my original post. Right now I do believe Xavier is more likely to dance than UD.

[throwbackmuskie]

udump fans. LOL

[Milhouse]

You clearly have a better coach. I won't argue that.

Better starting 5? What? I mean maybe they play as a more cohesive unit...but individual players? No way. Jalen, Myles, and Stainbrook would all three be All League players in the A10 easily.

You'd have no answer at all for our front court size, back court would be a good matchup but if they're shooting like they have been the last 3 games it wouldn't be a problem.

The game isn't in Cincinnati so clearly UD would have a chance.

[xukeith]

X is in the tourney no matter what. (well unless they lose remaining 2 then get blown out in BE first game)
I think X is 90% in.
Just win 1 more game against any team and they LOCK it up.

[Xville]

i don't really give a poo who we play as long as we are in the tournament....that and avoiding the stupid first four.

[Xville]

X is in the tourney no matter what. (well unless they lose remaining 2 then get blown out in BE first game)
I think X is 90% in.
Just win 1 more game against any team and they LOCK it up.

I wish I was as confident as some of you guys. If we lose the next two there are several things wrong with our resume

1.) Losing record in conference...even if it is the #2 RPI conference or whatever that isn't good.
2.) Say we win or two in the conference tourney that leaves our record at 19-14 or 20-14..and you guys feel good about our chances still?
3.) I know you can't really compare years because numbers wise our conference is much stronger this year, but I can't help it. We were 21-12 and 10-8 last year, and we got in by the skin of our chinny chin chin.

[xeus]

I care more about location than seed. Would love to play somewhere like Louisville so we can have a home crowd.

[Xavier]

I don't know why people think that loss doesn't hurt our chances. Absolutely we have to win one more game before conference tournament. Hopefully it's Villinova...If we lose both and only get one in NY I don't like the chances. Creighton would add another sub 100 loss to the resume, best case in that situation is the play in game IMO. Had we beaten St. John's I think all we would need is one more win and we'd be a lock. Hence why the loss hurts.

[goldiewilson]

You clearly have a better coach. I won't argue that.

Better starting 5? What? I mean maybe they play as a more cohesive unit...but individual players? No way. Jalen,

You'd have no answer at all for our front court size, back court would be a good matchup but if they're shooting like they have been the last 3 games it wouldn't be a problem.

The game isn't in Cincinnati so clearly UD would have a chance.

Reynolds would be a problem, but Stainbrook is slow and unathletic. I think Pierre would match up against him and do fine. The key would be if Pollard for UD could stay out of foul trouble trying to guard Reynolds. Farr doesn't seem to pose much of an inside threat.

[GoMuskies]

X is in the tourney no matter what. (well unless they lose remaining 2 then get blown out in BE first game)
I think X is 90% in.
Just win 1 more game against any team and they LOCK it up.

I don't see it. I think we have to have AT LEAST one more to feel good at all about our chances. I think we've got something pretty close to a 0% chance of getting in with three losses in the next three outings.

[Milhouse]

Reynolds would be a problem, but Stainbrook is slow and unathletic. I think Pierre would match up against him and do fine. The key would be if Pollard for UD could stay out of foul trouble trying to guard Reynolds. Farr doesn't seem to pose much of an inside threat.

We also throw Blueitt at the 4 a lot and he would cause issues down low. Stainbrook isn't athletic but It's not like UD is super ahtletic to the point where he would be having shots blocked left and right.

This is still a kid averaging 12 and 7 or whatever in Big East play. And he would have 4 inches and 50 LBs on anyone UD puts on him. Guarding him would absolutely wear a player down that is so much smaller.

[xeus]

Nobody cares about dayton. Take it somewhere else. Thanks.

[throwbackmuskie]

Is Dayton still D1?

[XUFan09]

I don't know why people think that loss doesn't hurt our chances. Absolutely we have to win one more game before conference tournament. Hopefully it's Villinova...If we lose both and only get one in NY I don't like the chances. Creighton would add another sub 100 loss to the resume, best case in that situation is the play in game IMO. Had we beaten St. John's I think all we would need is one more win and we'd be a lock. Hence why the loss hurts.
People on Holy Land of Hoops discussed how St. John's probably needed the win more, because a home loss would really hurt their chances that close to the bubble and Xavier could still screw themselves over after a win if they lost to Creighton. Basically, St. John's needed to beat Xavier and Xavier needs to beat Creighton to maximize Big East bids.

[xudash]

I would love to see a Xavier-UD matchup in the tourney. UD has a better coach and a better starting five, but has no bench. Xavier is better offensively, UD is better defensively.

Alas, I don't see it happening because I don't think that X and my Flyers are going to both make the dance. UD is running on empty with such a shortage of players. The loss to Duquesne Saturday was very damaging and very telling about their wearing down. I think X has a better chance of making it, but if you guys lose to Villanova and at Creighton on their senior day(no easy task) you are probably NIT bound as well.

Wow. How do you not understand that UD would lose to Xavier by at least 20 points on a neutral court.

Our coach doesn't reinstate rapists and otherwise doesn't put himself in a position of having to dismiss thieves from his team. Our coach recruits at a level that Archie Miller cannot achieve at Dayton/A10. Our coach is positioning Xavier for an NCAA Tournament berth through play in the second hardest conference in the nation.

UD has a better starting five than Xavier! That is hilarious. Xavier is much better than UD on both sides of the ball. We would run at least 9 players at you. UD would get lost in all our size and we would wear you down.

It's good for UD that it isn't in the Big East, as you would be sharing last place with Creighton right now. Stick with the A10 now that Xavier, Temple and Butler are gone. You can continue to barely get by St. Joe's at home while losing to Duquesne on the road, while otherwise racking up wins against other weak league foes.

[Titanxman04]

So I started reading the last few pages of this thread and I know I may come off as a little out of place sometimes, but seriously....what is a "dayton"?

[D-West & PO-Z]

ESPN's Bubble Watch seems to like our chances more than mos our our fans:

Xavier [18-11 (8-8), RPI: 31, SOS: 23] All of our "Xavier is so wacky!" jokes tend to fall flat (as if they didn't already) when the Musketeers are playing one-possession games, such as Monday night's 58-57 loss at St. John's or last week's 59-57 win at Cincinnati, because, duh, right? One-possession games tend to produce coin-flip results. We preferred the wackier days of late January, when the Musketeers followed up a road win at Georgetown with back-to-back losses to Seton Hall and Creighton. These days, Chris Mack's team looks much more solid, both on the court and with respect to its NCAA tournament seed. And yes, we said "seed." This is no longer a real bubble team, at least for the moment.

[goldiewilson]

Wow. How do you not understand that UD would lose to Xavier by at least 20 points on a neutral court.

Our coach doesn't reinstate rapists and otherwise doesn't put himself in a position of having to dismiss thieves from his team. Our coach recruits at a level that Archie Miller cannot achieve at Dayton/A10. Our coach is positioning Xavier for an NCAA Tournament berth through play in the second hardest conference in the nation.

UD has a better starting five than Xavier! That is hilarious. Xavier is much better than UD on both sides of the ball.

Xavier is pretty weak defensively. To say they are better on both sides of the ball is a farce.

20 points? I don't think X beats anyone by 20 points away from Cintas do they? At least not this season.

[X-band '01]

I care more about location than seed. Would love to play somewhere like Louisville so we can have a home crowd.

If they're in Kentucky's pod, forget it. They've probably been buying tickets for that one ever since tickets went public.

[Xavier]

People on Holy Land of Hoops discussed how St. John's probably needed the win more, because a home loss would really hurt their chances that close to the bubble and Xavier could still screw themselves over after a win if they lost to Creighton. Basically, St. John's needed to beat Xavier and Xavier needs to beat Creighton to maximize Big East bids.

All of this is pretty obvious, and I hardly care about St. Johns in regards to making the tournament. Of course a Creighton loss would hurt but not nearly as bad had we beaten St. John's on the road. At that point, we would be right on the bubble (still in I would imagine) with one win in NYA locking us in. Now, lose the next two and we could be needing two in NY to be a lock, absolutely needing 1 to be in a decent position.

[Masterofreality]

To me, nothing has really changed.

We have, and still do, need to get to 20-11, and at least 9-9 in the league. Now we need to get to 20-11 and 10-8.

Win the next two, as has always been basically required. No lifeline left- except for the BE Tourney.

[Muskied]

I think basketball analysts who are actually watching games are observing that the top 6 Big East teams are better than other bubble teams, regardless of risky tournament records. Honestly, I think it's a combination of strength of the games we've played and won, and the eye test.

Now no one can predict what the committee will do...will this be the year they reward the little guy who doesn't win their conference tourney? Will UD get credit for last year and a solid record in a crappy conference? Or will they reward a Big East team who went through the ringer in a conference which has typically been rewarded when that happens?

I think most analysts are predicting the later...even though it makes us very f-ing nervous.

[X-band '01]

The head of the committee this year is Scott Barnes - AD at Utah State (for the Mountain West).

I would be very interested to see the fates of teams like Colorado State, Boise State (a former First Four team) and Wyoming. I must be on acid to think they have a shot at making the Dance, but the committee seems to have at least one WTF selection each season.

[XUFan09]

All of this is pretty obvious, and I hardly care about St. Johns in regards to making the tournament. Of course a Creighton loss would hurt but not nearly as bad had we beaten St. John's on the road. At that point, we would be right on the bubble (still in I would imagine) with one win in NYA locking us in. Now, lose the next two and we could be needing two in NY to be a lock, absolutely needing 1 to be in a decent position.

What I'm saying is that if Xavier had beat St. John's but ended up losing to Creighton, there is still a decent chance they don't make the tournament, while now if they beat Creighton, it's almost guaranteed that they're in by avoiding the bad loss. Would a win at St. John's improved the probability of selection? Sure, but this game was much more about seeding than selection. Ever since Xavier lost to Creighton (and St. John's) at home, the game at Creighton has loomed larger than I think many appreciate.

It is disappointing to lose such a close game, though. A win would have probably bumped them up a seed line if they made the tournament.

[LA Muskie]

What I'm saying is that if Xavier had beat St. John's but ended up losing to Creighton, there is still a decent chance they don't make the tournament, while now if they beat Creighton, it's almost guaranteed that they're in by avoiding the bad loss. Would a win at St. John's improved the probability of selection? Sure, but this game was much more about seeding than selection. Ever since Xavier lost to Creighton (and St. John's) at home, the game at Creighton has loomed larger than I think many appreciate.

It is disappointing to lose such a close game, though. A win would have probably bumped them up a seed line if they made the tournament.
I think a road win at St. John's likely would have trumped a road loss at Creighton, and hence would have punched our proverbial ticket. I also think a home win over 'Nova will trump a road loss at Creighton. But I still want to beat Creighton.

[Xavier]

That's what I was trying to say, LA Muskie. Beating St. Johns would have been huge that it would allow us to lose to Creighton and still get in, IMO. Now, unless Xavier beats Nova, the Creighton game is going to be a must win where as we beat St. Johns and it would not have been.

[XUFan09]

Okay, I see we just disagree over the relative value or detriment of each game. With four bad losses already (unless Long Beach Stae wins outs), I think adding a fifth one on would be really detrimental to Xavier's resume, as it would really start to negate their good wins. I could see wins @SJU or vs. Villanova being bigger positives than a loss @Creighton is a negative, but I'm just not sure that's the case when Xavier's record is kind of weak.

[LA Muskie]

Okay, I see we just disagree over the relative value or detriment of each game. With four bad losses already (unless Long Beach Stae wins outs), I think adding a fifth one on would be really detrimental to Xavier's resume, as it would really start to negate their good wins. I could see wins @SJU or vs. Villanova being bigger positives than a loss @Creighton is a negative, but I'm just not sure that's the case when Xavier's record is kind of weak.
I think it's all close enough that reasonable minds could differ. Solution? Don't freaking lose at Creighton.

[GoMuskies]

I think we can all agree that we damned sure better win one of the next two to avoid queasiness on Selection Sunday (barring a Big East Tournament run).

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think it's all close enough that reasonable minds could differ. Solution? Don't freaking lose at Creighton.

This I can definitely agree with.

[XUFan09]

I think it's all close enough that reasonable minds could differ. Solution? Don't freaking lose at Creighton.

Yup.

[mistabeecee41]

12 losses. Lose to creighton and we will end the year with 14.

6 teams EVER have gotten at large bids with 14 losses.

[Xavier]

Yep, Creighton is now a win and in game- lose and you better do some damage in the Big East tournament.

[Caveat]

They're going to need to win multiple games in the BE tourney at this point, even with a win at Creighton.

[Masterofreality]

This team and coaching staff blew too many games where they should have won.

LBSU the second time because one guy went off and the one guy who could guard him 1-1 played 14 minutes- Remy Abell.
Auburn- No zone
DePaul- Pressing after you tie the game.
Creighton at home. No attention to detail.

I could also throw in Providence there because it took the staff to fall behind by 13 before they played a zone.

We're 18-12, 8-9. We really should be 22-8, 10-7. We have put ourselves in a very difficult spot...but it's all their own fault.

They had better not lose to Creighton again. Period.

[OTRMUSKIE]

there is no other coach in the past 30 years that loses this game. Mack is officially the worse coach in the history of the past 30 years. GCL can only win in highschool then it ends. I want him gone at the end of the year. YOU SUCK MACK!

[Blue Blobs Bro]

there is no other coach in the past 30 years that loses this game. Mack is officially the worse coach in the history of the past 30 years. GCL can only win in highschool then it ends. I want him gone at the end of the year. YOU SUCK MACK!

No other coach would lose to the sixth team in the country . Yeah, ok.

[Blue Blobs Bro]

posted twice for some reason

[drudy23]

I don't think Creighton is a win and in game. If we beat Creighton, and lay an egg in first Big East game, we're right back where we started.

[Xavier]

there is no other coach in the past 30 years that loses this game. Mack is officially the worse coach in the history of the past 30 years. GCL can only win in highschool then it ends. I want him gone at the end of the year. YOU SUCK MACK!

Huh?! I just don't see how someone can be so mad at Mack that he lost to the 6th best team in the country. Mad at the season? Sure, I get it. Saying no other coach loses to a top 6 team at home? Lose credibility.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Too many madtrees. However I am 39 and I am not use to Xavier losing. Older guys might be but I grew up in the awesome years of X. Now I am old enough to drink these loses away and I hate it. When X joined the A-10 they lost to #1 Umass in OT then followed that up with a loss to Ace Custis and VTech who was 7 at the time. They almost won both of those games. This isn't the same X team. We have been to two elite 8's since then and multiple sweet 16's. We didn't lose to UK we lost to the 6th ranked team at home. If we lost at the buzzer I would agree but we were up 9 in the second half. MACK sucks and if you still like him then good for you but I expect my Muskies to beat the 6th ranked team at home.

[XUFan09]

there is no other coach in the past 30 years that loses this game. Mack is officially the worse coach in the history of the past 30 years. GCL can only win in highschool then it ends. I want him gone at the end of the year. YOU SUCK MACK!
You say something like this and then presumably you expect to be taken seriously. Odd.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Sorry I meant The last 30 years of Xavier coaches. Pete, Thad and Miller don't lose this game.

[muskieindent]

Losing today did nothing to hurt our chances of playing March but it would have solidified it.Creighton is an absolute must win.Lose to them and we probably need to make the finals of the BE tournament.

[crolfes12]

@ESPNLunardi: “@xuballer17: @ESPNLunardi xavier on bubble now?” No.

[Titanxman04]

Kentucky is probably the only team Nova couldn't beat.

Mack doesn't miss the shots or turn it over. Lay off of Mack. Can't fault him in this one.

[muskieindent]

@ESPNLunardi: “@xuballer17: @ESPNLunardi xavier on bubble now?” No.

ask him if we are on the bubble if we lose to Creighton.Answer will be YES

[xu82]

Kentucky is probably the only team Nova couldn't beat.

Mack doesn't miss the shots or turn it over. Lay off of Mack. Can't fault him in this one.

And if Kentucky can be beat, it just might be by 'Nova. They're that good and on any given day.... Glad to be in their conference and look forward to better showings, which will come.

Today just wasn't our day.

As for no other coach would lose this game to a #6 team for 30 straight years, well, that's just silly. Sorry, name a single school that could say that while keeping a straight face.

[drudy23]

If there's one team that can beat UK, it's Nova.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I'm just drunk please forgive me.

[OTRMUSKIE]

No other xavier coach would lose this game is what I meant. Nova did nothing to wow me today. They hit 3's but other than that X should have won. I'm glad some of you are okay with this loss.

[xu82]

I'm just drunk please forgive me.

It happens. I appreciate the open approach. Frustrating game after high hopes. But some people can wear you down with it...

Not a blind supporter, but I like our future.

[xu82]

It happens. I appreciate the open approach. Frustrating game after high hopes. But some people can wear you down with it...

Not a blind supporter, but I like our future.

I take it back after reading #115. My bad for giving the benefit of the doubt, I guess.

PS - I'm betting you're still drunk.

[OTRMUSKIE]

82 Im just not use to losing like this. If this continues next year we have to look for a change. I thought Mack could be the one but I have just been so dissapointed in him. Let me sleep it off and let's get Creighton next week.

[xu82]

They are young and they struggled early on D. That should surprise no one. They had a few bad losses on the road, not shocking, though disappointing. They got into the thick of the schedule in by far the best conference we've ever been in, and lost to some excellent teams (and a couple mediocre teams). They've shown improvement and the best players on our team are the youngest, for the most part. No, I'm not happy about losing. But I'm not going to jump off a bridge, either. Our freshmen and sophomores look like hell on wheels in a couple years!

[RealDeal]

I'm just drunk please forgive me.

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Real deal Not fat but drunk and stupid I am. This just sucks guys.

[xu82]

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

That's very catchy! :smile:

[xu82]

Real deal Not fat but drunk and stupid I am. This just sucks guys.

Don't worry, FAT will probably come...

[Xavier_Musketeers]

If we beat Creighton we are in no doubt, if we lose that's another story

[GoMuskies]

I think the Creighton game basically decides our fate. We haven't won 3 straight since mid - December, so winning the Big East Tournament seems like it's beyond long-standing status.

[Cheesehead]

Does anyone expect THIS team to beat Chreighton on the road for their senior day in front of 18,000 rabid fans? I am really trying to remain optimistic but .....

[danaandvictory]

The season comes down to praying for a competent performance away to a last-place team in the hopes we can grab a tournament bid with thirteen losses.

That's awful.

[X-Fan]

No other xavier coach would lose this game is what I meant. Nova did nothing to wow me today. They hit 3's but other than that X should have won. I'm glad some of you are okay with this loss.
Nova always impresses me. They are fundamentally sound, don't beat themselves, and are clutch. They put on a clinic closing out today's game. See blood, go for the kill. Game went from a back and fourth 1-2 point game, to a 9 point lead in two possessions. All with less than 5 min to go. I'm disappointed that X couldn't answer, but the final score does not show how competitive the game was for the first 34 minutes.

I'm at the point with this team where either they'll get it or they won't. If they beat Creighton, then they are in. If they lose, they didn't have what it takes in the first place.

Cream rises to the top. Now or never fellas.

[Cheesehead]

The season comes down to praying for a competent performance away to a last-place team in the hopes we can grab a tournament bid with thirteen losses.

That's awful.
And there lies the problem. Last two seasons with Mack have been mind boggling

[goldiewilson]

And there lies the problem. Last two seasons with Mack have been mind boggling

Yup, you guys need a different coach. Mack is slowly driving Xavier basketball into mediocrity.

Didn't he just get a raise in the off season? Kinda puzzling...

[danaandvictory]

And there lies the problem. Last two seasons with Mack have been mind boggling

I'm starting to think he's just not up to it. The defense this year has just been atrocious.

[XfansinKy]

And if Kentucky can be beat, it just might be by 'Nova. They're that good and on any given day.... Glad to be in their conference and look forward to better showings, which will come.

Today just wasn't our day.

As for no other coach would lose this game to a #6 team for 30 straight years, well, that's just silly. Sorry, name a single school that could say that while keeping a straight face.
"Today just isn't our day" happens a lot nowadays. Either that or "The other team is better than people realize". Sometimes its " We didn't match up with them". My favorite is "but kenpom says". " Man they were just on fire" is a close 2nd.

[xu82]

"Today just isn't our day" happens a lot nowadays. Either that or "The other team is better than people realize". Sometimes its " We didn't match up with them". My favorite is "but kenpom says". " Man they were just on fire" is a close 2nd.

I totally get that. Really. I think with our freshmen and sophomores (who in general I believe are the most talented players on our team), plus what seems like some more athletic guys redshirting and whoever else they bring in, we will be moving up the BE ranks in the coming years. We are not the best coached team in the conference, but we're not the worst. Recruiting and developing is critical, and I think we're pretty good there. Our seniors have limitations that keep me from having wild expectations.... but I hope for the best.

PS - They're the #6 team in the country for a reason. They have only two losses all year. Those who act like we suck because we lost to them are delusional. (The pattern is real, but young teams lose close games.)

[Caveat]

Losing today did nothing to hurt our chances of playing March but it would have solidified it.Creighton is an absolute must win.Lose to them and we probably need to make the finals of the BE tournament.

This gets repeated after evey loss.

Eventually you have to win games to make the tournament. You can't a resume that's filled with good losses.

[Drew]

This gets repeated after evey loss.

Eventually you have to win games to make the tournament. You can't a resume that's filled with good losses.

aka Texas

[Masterofreality]

FYI.

We dropped all the way to 39 in the RPI after today's loss.

If we lose at Creighton it is conceivable that we drop all the way out of the Top 50.

If we lose at Creighton, just take this season out behind the barn and shoot it. I'll be sick of watching any more carnage.

[OTRMUSKIE]

This team will win if Creighton isnt hitting threes. If they are lighting them up its over Johnny. Does anybody have a good feeling?

[GoMuskies]

Does anybody have a good feeling?

No, but every time I feel bad about this team they seem to come through with a big win, and every time I start to feel good about them they fall flat on their faces. I'm not feeling so good, so it must be time for a big win.

[Xville]

This team will win if Creighton isnt hitting threes. If they are lighting them up its over Johnny. Does anybody have a good feeling?

Nope and if we lose, we can forget about making the tourney..this team is incapable of just all of a sudden turning it on when the lights shine the brightest at msg. Mediocre basketball now for 3 seasons.

[D-West & PO-Z]

They're going to need to win multiple games in the BE tourney at this point, even with a win at Creighton.

Not true

[D-West & PO-Z]

Does anyone expect THIS team to beat Chreighton on the road for their senior day in front of 18,000 rabid fans? I am really trying to remain optimistic but .....

Yes I do.

[D-West & PO-Z]

This gets repeated after evey loss.

Eventually you have to win games to make the tournament. You can't a resume that's filled with good losses.

See 4 Top 25 wins.

HAHA

[Xville]

See 4 Top 25 wins.

HAHA

That's great except they are getting negated with every loss.. .creighton, depaul, utep, lbsu, 12 losses already...a 13th probably coming either Crichton or big east...that's not acceptable even with how tough our conference is. 6th out of 10 is not good any way you spin it.

[GoMuskies]

See 4 Top 25 wins.

HAHA

Of course, only one of those wins is against a team that's still in the top 25. And counting Seton Hall in that number is technically correct, but really, would are we kidding with that?

[D-West & PO-Z]

Of course, only one of those wins is against a team that's still in the top 25. And counting Seton Hall in that number is technically correct, but really, would are we kidding with that?

I was referring to Top 25 RPI wins. Of which we still have 4.

[GoMuskies]

Gotcha.

I see they are #s 22, 23 and 24 according to ESPN. Lol, we'll take them.

[D-West & PO-Z]

That's great except they are getting negated with every loss.. .creighton, depaul, utep, lbsu, 12 losses already...a 13th probably coming either Crichton or big east...that's not acceptable even with how tough our conference is. 6th out of 10 is not good any way you spin it.

I agree its frustrating and 13 losses wouldnt be good.

The poster stated that we would have to start winning games, well we have won plenty of games. And we are still in much better shape than many bubble teams.

[danaandvictory]

X is still in a decent position today and will be fine with a win at Creighton.

Lose and things get very precarious.

[muethibp]

That's great except they are getting negated with every loss.. .creighton, depaul, utep, lbsu, 12 losses already...a 13th probably coming either Crichton or big east...that's not acceptable even with how tough our conference is. 6th out of 10 is not good any way you spin it.

This whole discussion can basically boil down to, "Are we average?" "No, we're ever-so-slightly above average." "I disagree, we're slightly below average."

Great. Glad this is where we've settled in as a program. I mean, who really cares who's right? If this is the discussion - on which side of average are we? - then it's hard to find any aspect of it satisfying.

[D-West & PO-Z]

X is still in a decent position today and will be fine with a win at Creighton.

Lose and things get very precarious.

Agreed. Win and we are in. Lose and it gets dicey.

[D-West & PO-Z]

This whole discussion can basically boil down to, "Are we average?" "No, we're ever-so-slightly above average." "I disagree, we're slightly below average."

Great. Glad this is where we've settled in as a program. I mean, who really cares who's right? If this is the discussion - on which side of average are we? - then it's hard to find any aspect of it satisfying.

This isnt were weve settled as a program, it is where we are during THIS season.

Why does everyone have to equate being a bubble team this year to the state of our program. XU's basketball future is very bright.

[GoMuskies]

it's hard to find any aspect of it satisfying.

It will be satisfying if our name is called in two weeks. Maybe only for four or five days, but satisfying nonetheless.

[GoMuskies]

Why does everyone have to equate being a bubble team this year to the state of our program

Probably because it's four years in a row of bubble or worse. At some point that becomes the state of the program.

[markchal]

This isnt were weve settled as a program, it is where we are during THIS season.

Why does everyone have to equate being a bubble team this year to the state of our program. XU's basketball future is very bright.

Just being in the Big East alone doesn't mean it's very bright. I'm optimistic about the future because I think our most talented players this year are all underclassmen (Trevon, Jalen, Myles, in that order).

But, it's also easy to see the dissatisfaction. We haven't played in the (real) first-round of the tournament in a few years and could possibly miss it again this year. We have had a lot of roster turnover due to transfers/players leaving early/etc., so feels like we're in a perpetual state of "wait till next year." Even next year, we will have three new players and will be breaking in some pieces to the rotation that were largely unused this year (Austin, O'Mara) and we will go another year without any real senior leadership (unless you think Farr/Abell will fill that Holloway/BJ/Duncan/Burrell role).

We're in a much tougher conference yet hear a lot of the same quotes from our players after games ("We weren't ready to play" "We need to take care of the ball better" "We need to play with intensity for 40 minutes" etc.) and people have problems with the coach.

I think our future is still bright, but there's definitely much more uncertainty around the program than there used to be.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Probably because it's four years in a row of bubble or worse. At some point that becomes the state of the program.

I dont consider being a 10 seed or higher really being a bubble team because at that point you arent really worried about not making it. And 4 years ago we made the Sweet 16, how is 4 years ago seen as a negative state of the program?

The last 2 years were bad this year is yet to be seen.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Just being in the Big East alone doesn't mean it's very bright. I'm optimistic about the future because I think our most talented players this year are all underclassmen (Trevon, Jalen, Myles, in that order).

But, it's also easy to see the dissatisfaction. We haven't played in the (real) first-round of the tournament in a few years and could possibly miss it again this year. We have had a lot of roster turnover due to transfers/players leaving early/etc., so feels like we're in a perpetual state of "wait till next year." Even next year, we will have three new players and will be breaking in some pieces to the rotation that were largely unused this year (Austin, O'Mara) and we will go another year without any real senior leadership (unless you think Farr/Abell will fill that Holloway/BJ/Duncan/Burrell role).

We're in a much tougher conference yet hear a lot of the same quotes from our players after games ("We weren't ready to play" "We need to take care of the ball better" "We need to play with intensity for 40 minutes" etc.) and people have problems with the coach.

I think our future is still bright, but there's definitely much more uncertainty around the program than there used to be.

I'm not only talking about being in the Big East but also we had a top 10 recruiting class last year that are all freshman this year and it was a big class. Not that every single guy is guaranteed to pan out but that is a god solid base for the future. I get that we have had a rough last two years but this year is yet to be seen what happens.

[GoMuskies]

We made the Sweet Sixteen, but we were one possession away from the NIT against Dayton in the A-10 Tournament. That's as bubbly as it gets. Great that we were in the Sweet Sixteen, but it doesn't erase the fact that we've been in this bubble conversation all too often in recent years.

[muethibp]

Just being in the Big East alone doesn't mean it's very bright. I'm optimistic about the future because I think our most talented players this year are all underclassmen (Trevon, Jalen, Myles, in that order).

But, it's also easy to see the dissatisfaction. We haven't played in the (real) first-round of the tournament in a few years and could possibly miss it again this year. We have had a lot of roster turnover due to transfers/players leaving early/etc., so feels like we're in a perpetual state of "wait till next year." Even next year, we will have three new players and will be breaking in some pieces to the rotation that were largely unused this year (Austin, O'Mara) and we will go another year without any real senior leadership (unless you think Farr/Abell will fill that Holloway/BJ/Duncan/Burrell role).

We're in a much tougher conference yet hear a lot of the same quotes from our players after games ("We weren't ready to play" "We need to take care of the ball better" "We need to play with intensity for 40 minutes" etc.) and people have problems with the coach.

I think our future is still bright, but there's definitely much more uncertainty around the program than there used to be.

And we have a coach that - putting it as charitably as I can - has yet to prove he's the answer.

[IM4X]

I'm not only talking about being in the Big East but also we had a top 10 recruiting class last year that are all freshman this year and it was a big class. Not that every single guy is guaranteed to pan out but that is a god solid base for the future. I get that we have had a rough last two years but this year is yet to be seen what happens.

Who ranked our last recruiting class as a top 10? ESPN had us in top 23 and Rivals had us at 14 and that's only because we had 6 recruits (2 more than normal). If Mack only recruited 4. (Even the best ranked 4), the class would have been ranked somewhere around 35 by ESPN and 26 by Rivals.

Yes, X did land some solid solid freshman in the 2014 class like you said, but let's not pretend they're all a bunch of elite players.

[MuskieFN]

Does anyone expect THIS team to beat Chreighton on the road for their senior day in front of 18,000 rabid fans? I am really trying to remain optimistic but .....

The Sagarin predictor gives X a 68% chance of winning and has X -5. Both seem about right going into it.

Creighton still has a mid week game, so who knows how that will go. But they did lose to the Seton Hall train wreck on Saturday. Granted it was on the road, but SHU was also without Sterling Gibbs.

Stainbrook was really hobbled in that first game against Creighton. They still shouldn't have lost it at home. But I do feel pretty good about the matchup with everyone healthy.

[MuskieFN]

FYI.

We dropped all the way to 39 in the RPI after today's loss.

If we lose at Creighton it is conceivable that we drop all the way out of the Top 50.

If we lose at Creighton, just take this season out behind the barn and shoot it. I'll be sick of watching any more carnage.

Ken Pom has them at 27. I think they also take a look at BPI, which is 29, and Sagarain, which is also 27.

They've done enough to get in. But it would be very hard to argue that point if they end up being swept by Creighton.

[paulxu]

Today's dumb question: as teams go through their conference tournaments, does the RPI that the NCAA Selection Committee uses, keep constantly updating and they end up using numbers that include tournament performance?

[SM#24]

Yes, updated daily

[paulxu]

Txs.

[mohr5150]

According to Bracket Matrix, updated today, we are still in, and still an 8 seed. Hard to imagine we are still that high, but I have little doubt we are still in. If we lose on Saturday, then this could be changing quickly.

[GoMuskies]

According to Bracket Matrix, updated today, we are still in, and still an 8 seed. Hard to imagine we are still that high, but I have little doubt we are still in. If we lose on Saturday, then this could be changing quickly.

Only 30 of the 75 brackets have been updated for Saturday's games, and those 30 give Xavier an 8.8 average seed, which is slightly higher than the current 8.51. Interestingly, that does not move us down at all as the next listed team is Iowa (first #9 seed), and their average seed is 8.96.

So if we take care of business Saturday, we seem to be a dead solid lock. I just wish I had more confidence about Saturday's outcome!

[Xavier]

Not sure every bracket has been updated since the game. But even so, the loss doesn't hurt. If it was the last game and we had beaten Cregihton id say we're in. Basically, the only importance of nova was for seeding, everything relies on Creighton.

[gladdenguy]

I agree Go. The bubble once again is terrible. Pitt just lost a game they needed against Wake Forest.

There is no doubt, even with 12 losses (which is not good), Xavier has done more than many other teams. But lose Saturday, and that is at least the 4th or 5th bad loss, under .500 in the conference, and means Xavier has lost 3 straight games to end the regular season.
Meanwhile, this team had 5 games left starting with sUCks, and wins the first 2, but now probably will lose 3 in a row and put their fate in the the hands of the committee and at least a must win situation in the first Big East tourney game against Providence, Gtown, or Butler. Not to mention 14 losses and only 18 or 19 wins......not very promising.

Just get it done Saturday. But with the way this team plays. Who knows what the hell will happen.
If they are sitting home at tourney time it's their own fault and Mack has done one pathetic job....especially down the stretch when this program used to be at its best at the end of the season. Just will be another reason why Mack is in over his head and his seat will start to warm up.

[Backyard Champ]

Hey Glad, what would Xavier have to do the rest of the season for you to actually get on board with Mack? Do they have to reach sweet 16? Elite 8? Just wondering what kind of expectations you have. Somehow I feel even if we reach your expectations, you'll find a way to b1tch.

[Masterofreality]

RPI is now 42, for whatever reason.

We had better beat Creighton.

[boozehound]

RPI is now 42, for whatever reason.

We had better beat Creighton.

42, huh? Moving into serious bubble territory. I hate the idea of having to win anywhere on Senior Night (Day), but I really think we have to beat Creighton on Saturday to feel at all good. If we lose that one, we are going to have to do some damage in NYC.

[muskieindent]

This site says if we get to 19 wins we will have a 81% chance of dancing.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/xavier-musketeers/bracketology

What are the odds if we have 13 or more losses? Probably not good

[XMuskieFTW]

What are the odds if we have 13 or more losses? Probably not good

I would say 13 gets us in. That means we beat creighton and lose to butler/prov/gtwon or win the BE tourney. 14 is where things get scary.

[D-West & PO-Z]

What are the odds if we have 13 or more losses? Probably not good

I dont think it matters one bit if we have 13 losses given that we could get to the Big East finals and lose and still end up with 13 losses. The much more important number is getting one more win to get to 19.

[StanleyOwnsYou]

42, huh? Moving into serious bubble territory. I hate the idea of having to win anywhere on Senior Night (Day), but I really think we have to beat Creighton on Saturday to feel at all good. If we lose that one, we are going to have to do some damage in NYC.

I just looked at Live RPI and only a few thousandths of a point are separating the 30th ranked team and 45th team.

30 Tulsa 0.5895
41 Xavier 0.5844
45 LSU 0.5824

Such a log jam in the middle, we may even begin creeping up throughout the week by virtue of not even playing. Just win one more game and we are virtually guarenteed an RPI 35 or better.

[Xville]

Such a log jam in the middle, we may even begin creeping up throughout the week by virtue of not even playing. Just win one more game and we are virtually guarenteed an RPI 35 or better.[/QUOTE]

I am assuming this to be true, but for the RPI experts, if we beat Creighton, will our RPI assuredly go up? I would think that it would since its a road victory but Creighton's numbers are pretty bad

[waggy]

I am assuming this to be true, but for the RPI experts, if we beat Creighton, will our RPI assuredly go up? I would think that it would since its a road victory but Creighton's numbers are pretty bad


I think it would go up some because the most important metric, X's win percentage, would increase. And then as you noted there's also the road win factor. It also depends on what other teams do though too.

[xsteve1]

X will be in the tourney even if they end up 18-14. Just too many top 100 and top 50 wins to keep us out. Now will X do any damage in the tourney? I don't have my hopes up for that with how inconsistent this Xavier team has been. I just don't think we have that one guy that can really put us on their back and carry us. Now if we had Tu or Crawford then that's another story.

[waggy]

14 losses and it's an all expenses paid trip to the sewage treatment plant up I-75.

[Muskie91]

Beat Creighton and lose 1st BE tourney game = upper 30s. Go 1-1 in BE tourney finish right around 30. Solid either way. Just beat Creighton which they should. Can't discount the revenge factor...

[xufan2434]

If X can't win on the road at Creighton then they don't deserve to get in anyway. I don't care how many threes Creighton hits on Saturday because they're at home and it's senior day, win and get in. If they can't do that, then they don't have the character needed to win a game in the tournament and don't deserve it.

[XMuskieFTW]

Is it me or is this going to be the longest week ever? Also it's the last week at my old job, and I'm going to New York for the BE tourney after that, so this week will just go even slower. I just want it to be gametime Saturday. Can't handle all the waiting.

[SemajParlor]

I was at MSG for the St John's game, flew into CVG this last Saturday and now putting all my energy into getting ready to attend BE tournament. Yep, it's that time of year.

[kyxu]

If X can't win on the road at Creighton then they don't deserve to get in anyway. I don't care how many threes Creighton hits on Saturday because they're at home and it's senior day, win and get in. If they can't do that, then they don't have the character needed to win a game in the tournament and don't deserve it.

Pretty much my attitude as well.

[XfansinKy]

Anybody else think its gonna take a Big East tournament win too?

[XMuskieFTW]

Anybody else think its gonna take a Big East tournament win too?

Only if we lose Saturday

[D-West & PO-Z]

Anybody else think its gonna take a Big East tournament win too?

Not if we beat Creighton.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi was just on Mo Egger's show a little earlier and he told Mo that XU was in no matter what. Mo asked him about XU avoiding 14 losses in order to go in and he replied something to the affect that he didnt realize they were that close to 14 losses but that it didnt matter, XU was in.

Lunardi pretty confident XU is a lock.

[paulxu]

A little (ok, very little) perspective on the dance.
If we go, I'm ecstatic.
If we don't, I'm disappointed...but not ready to fire the coach.
Without going into all the stronger schedule/stronger league rational, I just look at some history.

Since 2001,
XU has missed the dance 2 times
KY has missed the dance 2 times
AZ has missed the dance 2 times (both under Sean)
UNC has missed the dance 3times
UC has missed the dance 5 times

We're in some pretty good company. It's the way we define a successful season...dancing.
I want to be around when we make a Final Four. We will make a Final Four.
The anticipation for this season was very high, but should have been tempered somewhat by the youth factor.
Hopefully that will be balanced out with great senior play the next 2 weeks...and beyond.

A season is a lifetime. This has been a fun (and frustrating) ride. It's not over yet.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi was just on Mo Egger's show a little earlier and he told Mo that XU was in no matter what. Mo asked him about XU avoiding 14 losses in order to go in and he replied something to the affect that he didnt realize they were that close to 14 losses but that it didnt matter, XU was in.

Lunardi pretty confident XU is a lock.

That being said this team should be able to beat Creighton on the road on their senior day. If they dont and they dont get in there isnt a whole lot to bitch about.

Just. Beat. Creighton.

[xu82]

A little (ok, very little) perspective on the dance.
If we go, I'm ecstatic.
If we don't, I'm disappointed...but not ready to fire the coach.
Without going into all the stronger schedule/stronger league rational, I just look at some history.

Since 2001,
XU has missed the dance 2 times
KY has missed the dance 2 times
AZ has missed the dance 2 times (both under Sean)
UNC has missed the dance 3times
UC has missed the dance 5 times

We're in some pretty good company. It's the way we define a successful season...dancing.
I want to be around when we make a Final Four. We will make a Final Four.
The anticipation for this season was very high, but should have been tempered somewhat by the youth factor.
Hopefully that will be balanced out with great senior play the next 2 weeks...and beyond.

A season is a lifetime. This has been a fun (and frustrating) ride. It's not over yet.

Nice little tidbit. No real shame in this. I hope we go on a roll, but people need to be reasonable. I get the frustration, but that's not bad company.

[kyxu]

A little (ok, very little) perspective on the dance.
If we go, I'm ecstatic.
If we don't, I'm disappointed...but not ready to fire the coach.
Without going into all the stronger schedule/stronger league rational, I just look at some history.

Since 2001,
XU has missed the dance 2 times
KY has missed the dance 2 times
AZ has missed the dance 2 times (both under Sean)
UNC has missed the dance 3times
UC has missed the dance 5 times

We're in some pretty good company. It's the way we define a successful season...dancing.
I want to be around when we make a Final Four. We will make a Final Four.
The anticipation for this season was very high, but should have been tempered somewhat by the youth factor.
Hopefully that will be balanced out with great senior play the next 2 weeks...and beyond.

A season is a lifetime. This has been a fun (and frustrating) ride. It's not over yet.

Ugh. I hate these kinds of arguments.

First of all, postseason misses notwithstanding, UK and UNC have multiple national titles and Final Fours. If Xavier won a national title or made a Final Four every now and again, I'd be perfectly ok with some lean years where we miss the postseason. Arizona was a complete re-build when Miller took over, but he has them humming now. Completely different situation than X's where Mack inherited a lot of talent, succeeded at first, and is now tapering off.

And UC's basketball program is horrendous, so them missing the tournament is to be expected. I never, ever want to compare our program to theirs as some type of metric to assure ourselves that everything is ok.

[coasterville95]

Lunardi also is stirring the pot: predicting us as an 8 seed playing the 9 seed dayton in Louisville for the right to play UK in Louisville.

While showing little brother we are still boss would be nice and maybe they come together and ruin UKs run (which would bring great joy in deflating their fans for a year). I don't like that draw one bit.

[paulxu]

KYXU, I wasn't trying to build an argument, only pointing out recent history.
You are dead on, we don't have the FF or the National Championship those schools have.
I think we can get there, but I'm an optimist. We also don't have the resources of many of those schools, but we have come a long way.

Since 1986, only big schools, have won the whole thing.
The lone exception is Duke...and they have 14,000 kids. Other than Duke it's a tournament for big state schools (and big Syracuse).
Just look at a list of the winners in the last 25 years.
I think we can compete, and get to a FF. Butler got there; we should be able to also.

For a little more perspective, coach K took over in 80-81 at Duke. In 78 they were national runner ups; in 80 they were in the E8.
It took him 4 years to just get back to the dance.

Is Mack another coach K? I don't think so. But I'm not ready to give up on him quite yet.

[gladdenguy]

KYXU,
All the pollyannas like Paul try to bring light to this program falling back to mediocrity and below.
If Mack doesn't make the tourney (yet again) there needs to be serous concern on Victory Pkwy.
This team should easily be in the tournament.....especially compared to this horrid bubble that exists.
If Mack finds a way to lose the next 2 games it is inexcusable.

[kyxu]

KYXU, I wasn't trying to build an argument, only pointing out recent history.
You are dead on, we don't have the FF or the National Championship those schools have.
I think we can get there, but I'm an optimist. We also don't have the resources of many of those schools, but we have come a long way.

Since 1986, only big schools, have won the whole thing.
The lone exception is Duke...and they have 14,000 kids. Other than Duke it's a tournament for big state schools (and big Syracuse).
Just look at a list of the winners in the last 25 years.
I think we can compete, and get to a FF. Butler got there; we should be able to also.

For a little more perspective, coach K took over in 80-81 at Duke. In 78 they were national runner ups; in 80 they were in the E8.
It took him 4 years to just get back to the dance.

Is Mack another coach K? I don't think so. But I'm not ready to give up on him quite yet.

Ok...I don't know that pointing to recent history means all that much in the context you use. We've hardly missed the tournament over the past few years, which is great, if just making the tournament is your ultimate goal.

7-8 years ago, this program was on an upward trajectory to where many of us only dreamed. It almost looked as if we would sustain it even through a crippling coaching change. Now we're moving in the wrong direction, or at the very least, spinning our wheels not going anywhere at all.


KYXU,
All the pollyannas like Paul try to bring light to this program falling back to mediocrity and below.
If Mack doesn't make the tourney (yet again) there needs to be serous concern on Victory Pkwy.
This team should easily be in the tournament.....especially compared to this horrid bubble that exists.
If Mack finds a way to lose the next 2 games it is inexcusable.

Actually, I'm already seriously concerned. But don't hate on Paul. People like him help keep me from changing the channel on this season.

[Xavier]

Thing is, the upward trajectory was because of Miller or because the overall program? Miller changed expectations. Thad brought us our first elite 8, yes- After a season in which we had to beat the number 1 team in the country to get to the NCAA tournament. It was hardly a season with expectations. Miller turned the program to the next level.

I, too, am seriously concerned. I hope Mack can finally turn it around and make a sweet 16 run this year or next. If we're in the same position next year (fighting the bubble) I think it should be time to look elsewhere.

[BlueGuy]

Lunardi was just on Mo Egger's show a little earlier and he told Mo that XU was in no matter what. Mo asked him about XU avoiding 14 losses in order to go in and he replied something to the affect that he didnt realize they were that close to 14 losses but that it didnt matter, XU was in.

Lunardi pretty confident XU is a lock.

This is really gonna piss off the Chris Mack haters.

[LA Muskie]

I don't think it pisses anyone off, regardless their opinion of Mack. But I don't think Lunardi is right. I certainly don't see us as a lock if we lose our next two, and I suspect I'm not alone.

[sirthought]

Yeah, if they lose the next two and still get in, the system must be rigged, because that amount of losing doesn't deserve to go to the premiere tournament. It's hard to argue with Lunardi, but it sure wouldn't feel like that season performance deserves to be there. Lots of good wins. More significant losses. Losing record against the top 50. Losing record within conference play (if they lose the next two).

Let's think happy thoughts about winning the Creighton game and see where it goes from there.

[boozehound]

This is really gonna piss off the Chris Mack haters.

I don't feel like these psuedo-mythical Chris Mack 'haters' are rooting for Xavier to miss the tournament. I just think they are frustrated with the performance over the last several years, and they are probably also personalities who tend towards pessimism as a mechanism for limiting their potential for disappointment.

I don't really see many people (on this board, at least) that I would label as Mack 'haters'. Even the people who don't think his level of performance is acceptable would love to be wrong, and would likely change their opinions of Mack pretty quickly if he led us to the Elite 8 this year. They don't hate Mack. They just want to win more games.

[Xville]

I don't feel like these psuedo-mythical Chris Mack 'haters' are rooting for Xavier to miss the tournament. I just think they are frustrated with the performance over the last several years, and they are probably also personalities who tend towards pessimism as a mechanism for limiting their potential for disappointment.

I don't really see many people (on this board, at least) that I would label as Mack 'haters'. Even the people who don't think his level of performance is acceptable would love to be wrong, and would likely change their opinions of Mack pretty quickly if he led us to the Elite 8 this year. They don't hate Mack. They just want to win more games.

exactly. I'm not a Mack hater, but right now I am not too fond of him as Xavier's head coach. This is the fourth year in a row talking about the bubble, and its just really frustrating coming from 7-8 years ago when many of us felt that we were on the cusp of a final four trip and had a rising program. I want nothing more than to see Mack and Xavier succeed...and will gladly eat crow if this team suddenly turns it on and makes it to the second weekend of the tournament.

With all of that said, I understand more and more where the talent lies with this team, and it isn't with the upper classmen. So, I think we are going to see maybe one more year of this bubble talk. After that, we should be back to where we all want to be. The misses on recruiting, the dez thing, the early departure of SC, really set us back. I'm tired of hearing about it, im sick of talking about it. However, the reality is that its true and is the reason why we are where we are today.

[xu82]

I
I don't feel like these psuedo-mythical Chris Mack 'haters' are rooting for Xavier to miss the tournament. I just think they are frustrated with the performance over the last several years, and they are probably also personalities who tend towards pessimism as a mechanism for limiting their potential for disappointment.

I don't really see many people (on this board, at least) that I would label as Mack 'haters'. Even the people who don't think his level of performance is acceptable would love to be wrong, and would likely change their opinions of Mack pretty quickly if he led us to the Elite 8 this year. They don't hate Mack. They just want to win more games.

I agree with most of that. But we all know that, even with a recent elite 8, certain people would tend to be much more negative than others if they so much as got off to a slow start next year. It just seems to be a way of life (and maybe even a little more than a coping mechanism). I tend to set expectations more toward the "safe" end rather than the grandious to avoid disappointment. While I question the coaching at times, I do recognize that our best players are generally freshmen and sophomores. Some people refuse to recognize that, or at least give it any weight. I'm excited for the future while hoping the present includes a nice little run.

[xsteve1]

I don't feel like these psuedo-mythical Chris Mack 'haters' are rooting for Xavier to miss the tournament. I just think they are frustrated with the performance over the last several years, and they are probably also personalities who tend towards pessimism as a mechanism for limiting their potential for disappointment.

I don't really see many people (on this board, at least) that I would label as Mack 'haters'. Even the people who don't think his level of performance is acceptable would love to be wrong, and would likely change their opinions of Mack pretty quickly if he led us to the Elite 8 this year. They don't hate Mack. They just want to win more games.

Truer words. I'd love to see Mack coach X to a big run in the tournament and get X back to being a Top 20-25 program again. The inconsistency is what bothers me. They looked great to start the season and have been inconsistent the remainder. Play 1 great half then totally look like a different team the other.

[paulxu]

Not to burst any bubble, but it has nothing at all to do with being Pollyanna.
I doubt there is anyone on this board who wants us to succeed more than I do...maybe Q.

But if you have essentially known Xavier basketball since 2000, then you have a different set of expectations/realities than maybe some others.
Nothing at all wrong with that. It's the way to build toward a brighter future.

But you need to temper the enthusiasm with a small does of realism about the current state of college basketball (hence the comments about larger schools). Maybe this will help a little.
We play now in a conference with the second best RPI. We can compete in this conference, but it's going to be a war like none we've had before.

The old conference we left has 14 members. Their entire conference of 14 has only made 7 S16 appearances since 2000.
Seven, that's all. And none of those was by the same member. So in 15 years, 7 of their teams made it to the S16 once, and never returned...7 never made it at all.

During that same time frame, Xavier alone has made it to 5 S16's.

I'd like that to be a standard, making it to the S16 each year. But I recognize that is one damn tough goal. We've been there more often than any BE team since 2000, and to the tournament more often. But the league is a 2 edge sword; better RPI, but much, much tougher conference road.

Let's just make all this crap moot by winning on Saturday. Gladden is much more fun when we win.

[Muskied]

exactly. I'm not a Mack hater, but right now I am not too fond of him as Xavier's head coach. This is the fourth year in a row talking about the bubble, and its just really frustrating coming from 7-8 years ago when many of us felt that we were on the cusp of a final four trip and had a rising program. I want nothing more than to see Mack and Xavier succeed...and will gladly eat crow if this team suddenly turns it on and makes it to the second weekend of the tournament.

With all of that said, I understand more and more where the talent lies with this team, and it isn't with the upper classmen. So, I think we are going to see maybe one more year of this bubble talk. After that, we should be back to where we all want to be. The misses on recruiting, the dez thing, the early departure of SC, really set us back. I'm tired of hearing about it, im sick of talking about it. However, the reality is that its true and is the reason why we are where we are today.

I think the second paragraph answered your first. Not to pick on this post specifically, because there are many posts like it every week. I'm too am frustrated at the fact that this team could be 4-5 wins better right now and in a much better position, and maybe that increases the opportunity for a tourney run this year. But the reality is everything you stated- combined with the fact that we are no longer in the A10, with a realistic opportunity to win 26 games every year. I don't really get the sense of entitlement that we have- an expectation of high seeds and sweet 16s. Realize that we have been higher than a 6 seed 3 times...EVER. And we were probably 2-3 wins from a 6 seed this year. In fact, our all time average seed is 9...probably right where we will be this year, with the hardest schedule we've ever played.

Yes, there is an expectation of improvement. But given the landscape and the challenges the program has endured, I think we're right on track. How about taking a look at Purdue, UCLA, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri...teams with history, going through the rigors of recruiting and down years.

I can't argue with having expectations, and I can't argue with reflecting on the program, staff, or players...but I think our fan base has become over the top in its criticism and entitlement. It's what makes other programs hate our fan base, and an illness which there will never be a cure. I don't care who our coach is-

Hang in there- we will be in the NCAA tournament this year...enjoy it.

[Woodburn]

This is really gonna piss off the Chris Mack haters.
Right, because people that come to this board clearly want to see X miss the tournament.

[muethibp]

This is really gonna piss off the Chris Mack haters.

Right. As if being solidly on the right side of a 68-team-tournament bubble is something of which to be proud.

[SemajParlor]

Anybody else think its gonna take a Big East tournament win too?

Personally yes. I think people forget we were in a similar situation last year and according to the committee needed that Marquette BE tourney win.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Personally yes. I think people forget we were in a similar situation last year and according to the committee needed that Marquette BE tourney win.

We have double the top 25 RPI wins this year and one more total top 50 wins and I believe we had right around the same sub 100 RPI losses.

Add 2 top 25 RPI wins to last years team and we wouldnt have been anywhere close to the first four game.

[gladdenguy]

Chris Mack seems like a great guy, a wonderful family man, and a great representative of Xavier off the court. I definitely root for Chris Mack.
But with his results the last 3 years I think he is in over his head as the Xavier basketball head coach. Win more games or look for another job.
Its that simple. He has trended downward since he rode Sean Miller's tail. I'm not expecting Miller's results.....but to expect more than what Chris Mack has provided the last 3 years is completely justified.

[SemajParlor]

We have double the top 25 RPI wins this year and one more total top 50 wins and I believe we had right around the same sub 100 RPI losses.

Add 2 top 25 RPI wins to last years team and we wouldnt have been anywhere close to the first four game.

I understand, but we lose at Creighton we will need a BE win in my opinion. Only twice in history has an 18-14 team got in. Arizona in 2008 and MSU in 2011.

Edit: Apologies, forgot that X is 18-12 and not 18-13.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I understand, but we lose at Creighton we will need a BE win in my opinion. Only twice in history has an 18-14 team got in. Arizona in 2008 and MSU in 2011.

Edit: Apologies, forgot that X is 18-12 and not 18-13.

I see what you are saying. I thought you were saying it would take a win at Creighton and in the Big East tournament. I believe that is what the other poster you quoted meant. He may not have meant that though.

[Milhouse]

I think we should go back to the A10. That's the only option here since people value winning over making the tournament.

Remember in 2011 when we were a 6 seed and got POUNDED by a Marquette BE team that went a little over .500 in the league? This is the reality of being in a Big time league. We aren't going to dominate it, not at all. There's also going to be ZERO questions in terms of if we're battle tested or not come March.

This team could go on a run in March and all the detractors here would change their tune on a dime...saw in 2012 wouldn't be surprised to see it again this year or next.

[GoMuskies]

There's also going to be ZERO questions in terms of if we're battle tested or not come March.


NC State scoffs at what Marquette did to our 2011 team.

[Xavier]

I think we should go back to the A10. That's the only option here since people value winning over making the tournament.

Remember in 2011 when we were a 6 seed and got POUNDED by a Marquette BE team that went a little over .500 in the league? This is the reality of being in a Big time league. We aren't going to dominate it, not at all. There's also going to be ZERO questions in terms of if we're battle tested or not come March.

This team could go on a run in March and all the detractors here would change their tune on a dime...saw in 2012 wouldn't be surprised to see it again this year or next.

I think people value winning in the tournament. Not winning over making the tournament.

1) Lets not act like this Big East is the same one that Marquette went over .500 and beat us. That's just not the case. And I don't know that being battle tested is a huge thing. Lets look at Xavier- they weren't battled tested (according to you) and look at all their tournament success. Butler? back to back NC games.

[MHettel]

I just looked at Live RPI and only a few thousandths of a point are separating the 30th ranked team and 45th team.

30 Tulsa 0.5895
41 Xavier 0.5844
45 LSU 0.5824

Such a log jam in the middle, we may even begin creeping up throughout the week by virtue of not even playing. Just win one more game and we are virtually guarenteed an RPI 35 or better.

Think of the RPI kind of like Batting Average in Baseball. The deeper you get in the season, the harder it is for a single result to "move the needle." A player that has a 4 for 4 game might see his batting average increase by 25 or more points in May, but that same player going 4 for 4 in September might only see an increase of 5 points.

It might seem like the 30 to 45th teams are in close proximity, but that occurs throughout the entire range of the RPI

[MADXSTER]

Xavier vs Bubble Teams (the only reason the OOC is in bold was to break up the info and make it more readable)

Xavier 18-12 RPI 43 SOS 16, OOC 10-3 OOC RPI 28 OOC SOS 37, vs RPI 1-25 3-4 vs RPI 26-50 2-2 vs RPI 51-100 4-2 vs RPI 101-200 8-4, 2-0

Boise St 20-7 RPI 28 SOS 95, OOC 8-3 OOC RPI 52 OOC SOS 170, vs RPI 1-25 2-1 vs RPI 26-50 1-1 vs RPI 51-100 3-2 vs RPI 101-200 5-3, 9-0
Tulsa 21-7 RPI 32 SOS 101, OOC 7-4 OOC RPI 101 OOC SOS 109, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 2-1 vs RPI 51-100 3-1 vs RPI 101-200 6-1, 10-0
Txs A&M 20-8 RPI 40 SOS 77, OOC 9-3 OOC RPI 69 OOC SOS 140, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 2-3 vs RPI 51-100 4-2 vs RPI 101-200 7-0, 7-0
BYU 23-8 RPI 37 SOS 74, OOC 8-3 OOC RPI 30 OOC SOS 17, vs RPI 1-25 1-3 vs RPI 26-50 0-0 vs RPI 51-100 3-2 vs RPI 101-200 9-3, 8-0
Texas 18-12 RPI 39 SOS 8, OOC 11-2 OOV RPI 29 OOC SOS 92, vs RPI 1-25 2-9 vs RPI 26-50 1-2 vs RPI 51-100 3-1 vs RPI 101-200 7-0, 5-0
Temple 20-9 RPI 41 SOS 68, OOC 9-4 OOC RPI 48 OOC SOS 49, vs RPI 1-25 1-4 vs RPI 26-50 1-3 vs RPI 51-100 3-1 vs RPI 101-200 4-1, 11-0
Davidson 21-6 RPI 36 SOS 114, OOC 8-2 OOC RPI 57 OOC SOS 218, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 1-0 vs RPI 51-100 5-1 vs RPI 101-200 4-2, 10-0
Pitt 19-11 RPI 54 SOS 38, OOC 10-3 OOC RPI 54 OOC SOS 111, vs RPI 1-25 1-5 vs RPI 26-50 1-1 vs RPI 51-100 3-2 vs RPI 101-200 10-2, 3-1
UCLA 18-12 RPI 51 SOS 22, OOC 8-5 OOC RPI 114 OOC SOS 54, vs RPI 1-25 1-6 vs RPI 26-50 1-1 vs RPI 51-100 3-3 vs RPI 101-200 8-2, 5-0
Stanford 18-10 RPI 56 SOS 55, OOC 9-3 OOC RPI 37 OOC SOS 69, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 1-2 vs RPI 51-100 6-2 vs RPI 101-200 4-3, 7-0

From what I see Xavier's SOS is pretty darn good. Other teams that have a good SOS did not fair too well vs the top 50


Other teams to watch that are near the bubble

Cincinnati 20-9 RPI 49 SOS 62, OOC 9-4 OOC RPI 53 OOC SOS 25, vs RPI 1-25 2-1 vs RPI 26-50 2-3 vs RPI 51-100 2-3 vs RPI 101-200 5-2, 9-1
Dayton 22-6 RPI 29 SOS 119, OOC 10-2 OOC RPI 31 OOC SOS 116, vs RPI 1-25 1-1 vs RPI 26-50 1-1 vs RPI 51-100 4-4 vs RPI 101-200 8-0, 9-1
Rhode I 19-7 RPI 67 SOS 131, OOC 7-3 OOC RPI 116 OOC SOS 212, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 0-2 vs RPI 51-100 4-1 vs RPI 101-200 5-2, 11-0
Colorad St 23-5 RPI 26 SOS 119, OOC 12-0 OOC RPI 9 OOC SOS 94, vs RPI 1-25 0-0 vs RPI 26-50 2-2 vs RPI 51-100 4-1 vs RPI 101-200 7-2, 11-0
NC St 17-12 RPI 53 SOS 5, OOC 9-4 OOC RPI 71 OOC SOS 26, vs RPI 1-25 3-4 vs RPI 26-50 1-2 vs RPI 51-100 4-4 vs RPI 101-200 6-2, 4-0
Purdue 19-10 RPI 59 SOS 70, OOC 8-5 OOC RPI 181 OOC SOS 211, vs RPI 1-25 0-3 vs RPI 26-50 4-2 vs RPI 51-100 4-4 vs RPI 101-200 5-3, 6-0
Illinois 18-11 RPI 61 SOS 51, OOC 10-3 OOC RPI 63 OOC SOS 160, vs RPI 1-25 2-2 vs RPI 26-50 1-4 vs RPI 51-100 2-4 vs RPI 101-200 8-1, 6-0
Oregon 21-8 RPI 31 SOS 57, OOC 9-3 OOC RPI 88 OOC SOS 124, vs RPI 1-25 1-3 vs RPI 26-50 1-1 vs RPI 51-100 7-3 vs RPI 101-200 7-2, 6-0
Miami Fl 18-11 RPI 71 SOS 68, OOC 10-3 OOC RPI 83 OOC SOS 184, vs RPI 1-25 1-5 vs RPI 26-50 0-1 vs RPI 51-100 5-1 vs RPI 101-200 5-4, 8-0
Okla St 16-11 RPI 44 SOS 13, OOC 9-2 OOC RPI 38 OOC SOS 118, vs RPI 1-25 3-8 vs RPI 26-50 3-0 vs RPI 51-100 3-2 vs RPI 101-200 4-2, 5-0
Indiana 19-10 RPI 46 SOS 33, OOC 10-3 OOC RPI 76 OOC SOS 113, vs RPI 1-25 3-4 vs RPI 26-50 2-3 vs RPI 51-100 4-3 vs RPI 101-200 5-1, 6-0
LSU 21-8 RPI 45 SOS 78, OOC 11-2 OOC RPI 40 OOC SOS 155, vs RPI 1-25 1-2 vs RPI 26-50 2-2 vs RPI 51-100 7-2 vs RPI 101-200 7-1, 5-2
Old Dom 22-6 RPI 42 SOS 141, OOC 11-1 OOC RPI 12 OOC SOS 39, vs RPI 1-25 1-0 vs RPI 26-50 1-0 vs RPI 51-100 4-2 vs RPI 101-200 7-3, 11-1


I know this is a lot of information but do a little homework before making blanket statements about how bad Xavier is and how if they lose at Creighton then they do not deserve to be in the Tournament. If Xavier played a weaker OOC schedule this team would have 3 to 4 more wins.

[GoMuskies]

If Xavier played a weaker OOC schedule this team would have 3 to 4 more wins.

Xavier only had 3 OOC losses, so this statement is a bit confusing. Particularly since Xavier lost to Auburn and LBSU, neither of whom are top 100 teams.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Think of the RPI kind of like Batting Average in Baseball. The deeper you get in the season, the harder it is for a single result to "move the needle." A player that has a 4 for 4 game might see his batting average increase by 25 or more points in May, but that same player going 4 for 4 in September might only see an increase of 5 points.

It might seem like the 30 to 45th teams are in close proximity, but that occurs throughout the entire range of the RPI

The 15 team grouping posted is unusually close. There isnt another 15 spot difference that close that I have seen anywhere else if the RPI. The difference posted is 0.0071.

1 to 15 in the RPI the difference is 0.0618
5 to 15 the difference is 0.054
15 to 30 difference is 0.0282
40 to 55 is 0.0125
51 to 66 0.0141

So I think there is more room to move up in that 15 spot bunch than most.

[MADXSTER]

Xavier only had 3 OOC losses, so this statement is a bit confusing. Particularly since Xavier lost to Auburn and LBSU, neither of whom are top 100 teams.

Meant 2 or 3 but got ahead of myself.

[Caveat]

I don't think it pisses anyone off, regardless their opinion of Mack. But I don't think Lunardi is right. I certainly don't see us as a lock if we lose our next two, and I suspect I'm not alone.

People were reassuring everyone that Xavier was a "lock" last year after the win against Creighton in the regular season and Marquette in the tournament. They still barely slipped in.

All this talk about "locks" goes up in smoke the minute a few conference tournaments go wrong.

[DC Muskie]

All this talk about "locks" goes up in smoke the minute a few conference tournaments go wrong.

Exactly. Still a ton of unpredictable basketball left.

[LadyMuskie]

People were reassuring everyone that Xavier was a "lock" last year after the win against Creighton in the regular season and Marquette in the tournament. They still barely slipped in.

All this talk about "locks" goes up in smoke the minute a few conference tournaments go wrong.

I agree. I won't feel good about things unless we win it all in NYC or until I see our name on a line on Selection Sunday. Everything else is just conjecture.

Does anyone know how accurate (statistically) Lunardi is? I remember several years back, someone reported on the "expert" brackets once the field was set, and it wasn't very impressive. But, I don't follow him closely enough to know if he predicts the field very well or not year in and year out.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I agree. I won't feel good about things unless we win it all in NYC or until I see our name on a line on Selection Sunday. Everything else is just conjecture.

Does anyone know how accurate (statistically) Lunardi is? I remember several years back, someone reported on the "expert" brackets once the field was set, and it wasn't very impressive. But, I don't follow him closely enough to know if he predicts the field very well or not year in and year out.

I believe if I am remembering correctly he is extremely accurate on which teams get in but he isnt so great about getting the seeding correct.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I agree. I won't feel good about things unless we win it all in NYC or until I see our name on a line on Selection Sunday. Everything else is just conjecture.

Does anyone know how accurate (statistically) Lunardi is? I remember several years back, someone reported on the "expert" brackets once the field was set, and it wasn't very impressive. But, I don't follow him closely enough to know if he predicts the field very well or not year in and year out.


I believe if I am remembering correctly he is extremely accurate on which teams get in but he isnt so great about getting the seeding correct.

He got 65/65 in 2008
63/65 in 2009
64/65 in 2010
68/68 in 2013
67/68 in 2014

Couldnt find 2011 or 2012

[xu82]

He got 65/65 in 2008
63/65 in 2009
64/65 in 2010
68/68 in 2013
67/68 in 2014

Couldnt find 2011 or 2012

Damn! That would suck to be the 1/68 last year! Or THIS year!
Overall, pretty darn impressive.

[waggy]

Indiana lost tonight. At home to Iowa.

So it's been a good night, for me anyway.

[SemajParlor]

I'd honestly take an 11 over 7,8,9,10. The difference between 11 and a 6 is not that much in 2015 - and as some others have previously said, many times the 11 is better.

[paulxu]

He got 65/65 in 2008
63/65 in 2009
64/65 in 2010
68/68 in 2013
67/68 in 2014

Couldnt find 2011 or 2012

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[OTRMUSKIE]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[MuskieFN]

The Sagarin predictor gives X a 68% chance of winning and has X -5. Both seem about right going into it.

Creighton still has a mid week game, so who knows how that will go. But they did lose to the Seton Hall train wreck on Saturday. Granted it was on the road, but SHU was also without Sterling Gibbs.

Stainbrook was really hobbled in that first game against Creighton. They still shouldn't have lost it at home. But I do feel pretty good about the matchup with everyone healthy.

Whoever wrote that seems to have been right on the money. #humblebrag

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lock it up!!!

[JAPER]

Very high probability...doubters and quitters....x is in!

[BMoreX]

Locked.

[American X]

http://media3.giphy.com/media/2dJ5Iait4QrW8/200.gif

[waggy]

Child Pleeeeazzze.

[chowertime]

While most of the people on this board already understand this quite well, here's a decent article breaking down NCAA units and their impact. However, the author completely fails to further investigate how various conferences share the proceeds, it assumes an even split between all teams within their respective conferences.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-march-madness-basketball-fund/

[Masterofreality]

Fordham is still dining on Chateaubriand and Lobster from the money Xavier won them.

Thank Gawd we're out of that league.

[GoMuskies]

Fordham is still dining on Chateaubriand and Lobster from the money Xavier won them.


Now its DePaul's turn to freeload.

[Masterofreality]

Now its DePaul's turn to freeload.

But at least we're getting payback from others besides just being taken

[XUPhilly04]

But at least we're getting payback from others besides just being taken

Honestly,we should be able to determine whether DePaul can compete with the top of the league on consistent basis when they hire their next coach.