Bubble Watch

[LA Muskie]

I backed up my argument with verified documents. Drudy "claims" that "the head of the committee" who he can't even name made a verbal quote that is not verifiable-at least to this point. You are a lawyer, LA. That constitutes hearsay and is inadmissible. It is also 16 years old at this point. I'm sure there are never "misrememberings" by anyone over 16 year old issues. How can I deny it, when I don't even know it is real? Is that how you handle your court cases?

Show me a clip, or a published quote and I'll reconsider, but right now, there is nothing
See, now you are denying the point. Which I'm fine with. Like I said, I don't have any recollection myself. And since it happened 16 years ago, I honestly have no idea whether we had any shot at the tournament that year. But I'd like to think we did.

[Masterofreality]

See, now you are denying the point. Which I'm fine with. Like I said, I don't have any recollection myself. And since it happened 16 years ago, I honestly have no idea whether we had any shot at the tournament that year. But I'd like to think we did.

With all due respect, counselor, did you read the word "Wrong" in my counter post to Drudy's original?

I'm not sure how much of a denial there can be.:biggrin:

[LA Muskie]

With all due respect, counselor, did you read the word "Wrong" in my counter post to Drudy's original?

I'm not sure how much of a denial there can be.:biggrin:
The wrong was pretty generic. I didn't know if you were referring to the notion in general (that we wouldn't have been in, regardless) or the alleged statement on behalf of the committee in particular.

Be more clear, buddy. This is, after all, a recreational message board.

[paulxu]

Somehow our RPI keeps inching down with these other conference games, although I don't see where any of the games last night should have affected it.
But LiveRPI has us down to 39, and forecasts us to be at 50 if we lose to Butler.
I do not want to be at 50. Let's get this first game.

[drudy23]

So, if we lose, we're 50 in the RPI and 19-13...and people aren't nervous? I'm nervous.

[ammtd34]

I don't see how we'd be 50. RPI Wizard says 43 if we lose, 33 if we win and lose to Georgetown with a 9 SOS.

[paulxu]

I had never run that Wizard thing, but I just did and you are correct. It comes up 43.

I was using the "forecast" part of the same website, where it shows what the RPI would be with a Butler loss, and it shows 50.
Have no idea why 2 different answers from the same place.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Xavier.html

[waggy]

*Because these predictions do not include the full set of future conference tournament games, they may differ slightly from the predictions on rpiforecast.



I guess 7 places is slight when the margins are so narrow.

[X-band '01]

Illinois may have burst their own bubble with a no-show in the Big 10 Tournament.

[BandAid]

Illinois may have burst their own bubble with a no-show in the Big 10 Tournament.

Good. The more everyone else sucks the less good we need to be

[JTG]

Illinois may have burst their own bubble with a no-show in the Big 10 Tournament.

Hopefully Indiana does likewise.

[Masterofreality]

Iowa losing to Penn State by 6 with 6:40 to go. Iowa is right next to us in the RPI.

[XUFan09]

Iowa losing to Penn State by 6 with 6:40 to go. Iowa is right next to us in the RPI.

Dance Card has them two spots ahead of Xavier and Bracket Matrix has them 8 spots ahead. Go Penn State!

[XUFan09]

St. John's likely going down to Providence is good for Xavier, as SJU is probably closer to Xavier in the S-curve.

[Masterofreality]

Dance Card has them two spots ahead of Xavier and Bracket Matrix has them 8 spots ahead. Go Penn State!

Over. Penn State pulls the upset. A verrrrrry bad loss for Iowa. Penn State was 112 RPI.

That drops Iowa to 46 in RPI from 37.

[LA Muskie]

You know what'd be really good for us? Winning a basketball game today.

[LA Muskie]

Over. Penn State pulls the upset. A verrrrrry bad loss for Iowa. Penn State was 112 RPI.

That drops Iowa to 46 in RPI from 37.

A bad loss? Yes. A VERY bad loss? Probably not. A VERRRRRRY bad loss? Nope. 112 is not sub-200.

[kyxu]

You know what'd be really good for us? Winning a basketball game today.

Yes. Unfortunately, this will be quite difficult.

[X-band '01]

A bad loss? Yes. A VERY bad loss? Probably not. A VERRRRRRY bad loss? Nope. 112 is not sub-200.

By Big 10 standards, that IS a bad loss. Not bad enough to knock them out, but it will certainly damage their seeding a bit.

[Masterofreality]

A bad loss? Yes. A VERY bad loss? Probably not. A VERRRRRRY bad loss? Nope. 112 is not sub-200.

When you drop from 37 RPI to 46 at this point in the year, it is a verrrrrrry bad loss.

[LA Muskie]

When you drop from 37 RPI to 46 at this point in the year, it is a verrrrrrry bad loss.

OK. I thought you were referring to the profile not the effect on RPI. It definitely is a big hit to the RPI for a bubble team, but it's also early in the day so it doesn't take into account the rest of the day's outcomes. I suspect it will end up being more like a 5-6 pts, which isn't outlandish for a loss to a team with an 80 pt RPI differential.

That said, I'm still not sold the committee puts all that much stock in the RPI itself.

[XUFan09]

OK. I thought you were referring to the profile not the effect on RPI. It definitely is a big hit to the RPI for a bubble team, but it's also early in the day so it doesn't take into account the rest of the day's outcomes. I suspect it will end up being more like a 5-6 pts, which isn't outlandish for a loss to a team with an 80 pt RPI differential.

That said, I'm still not sold the committee puts all that much stock in the RPI itself.

Yeah, RPI has a solid correlation with tournament selection (not as much with seeding), but it's not the be-all-end-all. Still, I'm pretty confident that Xavier will pass up Iowa if they beat Butler today and they might pass them up even if they lose. Whether they pass St. John's I think is entirely dependent on beating Butler; win and they pass, lose and they don't. Teams to root against today in bold with the team they're playing:

7:00 - NC State vs. Duke (Just to be safe, I hope it isn't even close)
8:30 - Ohio State vs. Minnesota (I think OSU is much closer to the bubble than a lot of people but a loss here would still be nice to be safe)
9:00 - San Diego State vs. UNLV
9:00 - Oregon vs. Colorado
9:00 - Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
11:30 - Colorado State vs. Fresno State

Xavier is currently the top 9 seed on Bracket Matrix, and that's all the 7-10 seeds playing today. None of the 6 seeds are playing today except Providence (who already won) and Butler (who, you know).

[THRILLHOUSE]

aggies down 9 to Auburn with about 3 min left. If they don't come back their bubble is burst.

[muskiefan82]

aggies down 9 to Auburn with about 3 min left. If they don't come back their bubble is burst.

This is a pleasant surprise.

[BandAid]

aggies down 9 to Auburn with about 3 min left. If they don't come back their bubble is burst.

Added bonus of bettering our rpi in the process. I hope Auburn doesn't lose until they play Kentucky

[Masterofreality]

Aaaaaaaand Old Dominion goes down to Middle Tennessee. They had assumed the dreaded 37 RPI when Iowa lost and now they are 46. Probably out.

[Masterofreality]

Added bonus of bettering our rpi in the process. I hope Auburn doesn't lose until they play Kentucky

Auburn wins. Our RPI still the same at 38.

[BandAid]

Auburn wins. Our RPI still the same at 38.

I didn't say it'd move us up. RPI is measured by the people you play, right? Well, as Auburn does well our RPI should get fractionally better.

[X Factor]

Our SOS went up a couple spots.

[XU Cowbell Kid]

Teams to root against today in bold with the team they're playing:

7:00 - NC State vs. Duke (Just to be safe, I hope it isn't even close)


I'm so glad you said to root against NC State and not to root for Duke. Big difference, and because you made the correct distinction, reps to you good sir.

[Masterofreality]

I didn't say it'd move us up. RPI is measured by the people you play, right? Well, as Auburn does well our RPI should get fractionally better.

Right, I wasn't disagreeing. I actually thought we might move up a slot or two

[Xu Red Dogg]

Bubble Watch : Lock Status

[XUFan09]

Yeah, RPI has a solid correlation with tournament selection (not as much with seeding), but it's not the be-all-end-all. Still, I'm pretty confident that Xavier will pass up Iowa if they beat Butler today and they might pass them up even if they lose. Whether they pass St. John's I think is entirely dependent on beating Butler; win and they pass, lose and they don't. Teams to root against today in bold with the team they're playing:

7:00 - NC State vs. Duke (Just to be safe, I hope it isn't even close)
8:30 - Ohio State vs. Minnesota (I think OSU is much closer to the bubble than a lot of people but a loss here would still be nice to be safe)
9:00 - San Diego State vs. UNLV
9:00 - Oregon vs. Colorado
9:00 - Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
11:30 - Colorado State vs. Fresno State

Xavier is currently the top 9 seed on Bracket Matrix, and that's all the 7-10 seeds playing today. None of the 6 seeds are playing today except Providence (who already won) and Butler (who, you know).

Ok, let's see how things turned out:

NC State lost in spectacular fashion.
Ohio State pulled it out against Minnesota, unfortunately. Still, I think they are generally overseeded by bracketologists.
San Diego State edged out UNLV.
Oregon won.
Oklahoma State lost.
Colorado State won.

With Iowa also losing earlier to a bad team and St. John's getting blown out by Providence, along with Xavier winning against a top 25 team, it was a decent day for seeding purposes. Xavier might be a 7 seed at this point, and if they beat Georgetown, I think they will be. Regardless, I think they will be wearing white jersies for the first time since 2011.

[MuskiePimp23]

Bubble Watch : Lock Status

Eamonn Brennan on ESPN is a CLOWN. An absolute clown. We are easily a lock before the win tonight. Great win though.

[XUFan09]

Okay, here's the next round of who to root against in bold and their opponent. Keep in mind that I'm using Bracket Matrix's composite:

11:30 - San Diego State vs. Colorado State. Yes, I listed CSU as a team to root against before, but after the Xavier win, I don't think they are a threat anymore, while SDSU most definitely is.
11:30 - Oregon vs, Utah. Definitely don't want them picking up a big win.
12:00 - SMU vs. East Carolina. They're up on the 6 seed line currently, but if they pick up a bad loss, Xavier could pass them up.
12:00 - Davidson vs. La Salle. After beating Butler, I think Xavier doesn't have to worry about them anymore, but just to be safe.
2:30 - VCU vs. Richmond. They are so different without Briante Weber that I think the will end up being seeded lower than where bracketologists have them, but just to be safe.
3:00 - LSU vs. Auburn. Added boost of rooting for a team on Xavier's schedule.
6:30 - Dayton vs. St. Bonaventure. Another team that I think is overseeded, but screw it, it's UD. If they lose to the Bonnies, they might not even make the tournament.
7:00 - Arkansas vs. Tennessee. Up on the 6 seed line, but Tennessee is a potentially bad loss that could pull them down below Xavier.
8:55 - Michigan State vs. Ohio State. Take your pick, as they both are potentialy around Xavier's seed line, though again, I think bracketologists are generally overseeded OSU. Because of that, I'm rooting against Michigan State.
9:00 - Cincinnati vs. UConn. Can Xavier fans handle rooting against UC? It might be tough...

[Masterofreality]

Actually, for the first time in maybe my life, I'm rooting FOR SucKS tonight. Screw UCon.

We beat the Borecats. We're higher seeded right now. Beating UCon won't help SucKS seed line. They can lose tomorrow night, but get freaking UCon and their 78 RPI out of here.

[BandAid]

Okay, here's the next round of who to root against in bold and their opponent. Keep in mind that I'm using Bracket Matrix's composite:

11:30 - San Diego State vs. Colorado State. Yes, I listed CSU as a team to root against before, but after the Xavier win, I don't think they are a threat anymore, while SDSU most definitely is.
11:30 - Oregon vs, Utah. Definitely don't want them picking up a big win.
12:00 - SMU vs. East Carolina. They're up on the 6 seed line currently, but if they pick up a bad loss, Xavier could pass them up.
12:00 - Davidson vs. La Salle. After beating Butler, I think Xavier doesn't have to worry about them anymore, but just to be safe.
2:30 - VCU vs. Richmond. They are so different without Briante Weber that I think the will end up being seeded lower than where bracketologists have them, but just to be safe.
3:00 - LSU vs. Auburn. Added boost of rooting for a team on Xavier's schedule.
6:30 - Dayton vs. St. Bonaventure. Another team that I think is overseeded, but screw it, it's UD. If they lose to the Bonnies, they might not even make the tournament.
7:00 - Arkansas vs. Tennessee. Up on the 6 seed line, but Tennessee is a potentially bad loss that could pull them down below Xavier.
8:55 - Michigan State vs. Ohio State. Take your pick, as they both are potentialy around Xavier's seed line, though again, I think bracketologists are generally overseeded OSU. Because of that, I'm rooting against Michigan State.
9:00 - Cincinnati vs. UConn. Can Xavier fans handle rooting against UC? It might be tough...

I agree with MOR. UConn is one of the few remaining "bid stealers." I'll be cheering against them whenever I can.

Similarly, we have to cheer for someone to win the A-10. Otherwise, someone like the Bonnies will steal a bid. My choice is Davidson. VCU should slide. And screw ud.

[paulxu]

Actually, for the first time in maybe my life, I'm rooting FOR SucKS tonight. Screw UCon.

I'll be on the lookout.

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/legacy/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/425AirportFlyingPigs.jpg

[Masterofreality]

I agree with MOR. UConn is one of the few remaining "bid stealers." I'll be cheering against them whenever I can.

Similarly, we have to cheer for someone to win the A-10. Otherwise, someone like the Bonnies will steal a win. My choice is Davidson. VCU should slide. And screw ud.

No question. Pulling HARD for Richmond and Bona tonight.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I agree with MOR. UConn is one of the few remaining "bid stealers." I'll be cheering against them whenever I can.

Similarly, we have to cheer for someone to win the A-10. Otherwise, someone like the Bonnies will steal a bid. My choice is Davidson. VCU should slide. And screw ud.

We dont need to be concerned with bid stealers.

We are a LOCK. I like bid stealers when they arent stealing from our team

[outsideobserver11]

I think it's so much fun pulling for the upsets once you know your team is locked in for the tourney. America loves an underdog.

[XUFan09]

Actually, for the first time in maybe my life, I'm rooting FOR SucKS tonight. Screw UCon.

We beat the Borecats. We're higher seeded right now. Beating UCon won't help SucKS seed line. They can lose tomorrow night, but get freaking UCon and their 78 RPI out of here.

It's not as much UConn as it is potential wins later in the bracket that could help UC out. They're close enough to Xavier in the brackets that they might finish ahead of X on the S-curve if they win out. That being said, I can see the reasoning behind rooting against UConn so that the AAC doesn't get another bid and the Big East gets compared favorably to them.

[XUFan09]

We dont need to be concerned with bid stealers.

We are a LOCK. I like bid stealers when they arent stealing from our team

Yup, I don't mind a bid stealer from the A10 at all. Everyone in the Big East is either a lock or not even making the NIT.

[XUFan09]

I think it's so much fun pulling for the upsets once you know your team is locked in for the tourney. America loves an underdog.

Most definitely.

[kyxu]

Yup, I don't mind a bid stealer from the A10 at all. Everyone in the conference is either a lock or not even making the NIT.

Could someone please explain to me how Dayton is considered a "lock"? I'm not trying to flame or start a Dayton-bashing thread; I genuinely have no idea why they are considered on solid footing.

They have one win against an NCAA Tournament team, and that team (VCU) is absolutely reeling and won't be long for the big dance. Their other big wins (Texas A&M and Ole Miss) are to teams that will likely miss the tournament. They also lost to a 200+ RPI team.

[XUFan09]

Could someone explain to me how Dayton is considered a "lock"?

They have one win against an NCAA Tournament team, and that team (VCU) is absolutely reeling and won't be long for the big dance. Their other big wins (against Texas A&M and Ole Miss) are to teams that may very well likely miss the tournament.

Sorry, I meant that everyone in the Big East conference is a lock or not in the NIT.

[kyxu]

Sorry, I meant that everyone in the Big East conference is a lock or not in the NIT.

Wasn't in reaction to your post, actually. You bringing up the A-10 just made me think of Dayton.

[paulxu]

Could someone please explain to me how Dayton is considered a "lock"? I'm not trying to flame or start a Dayton-bashing thread; I genuinely have no idea why they are considered on solid footing.

They have one win against an NCAA Tournament team, and that team (VCU) is absolutely reeling and won't be long for the big dance. Their other big wins (Texas A&M and Ole Miss) are to teams that will likely miss the tournament. They also lost to a 200+ RPI team.

Not everyone. Dance Card has them outside the field.

[nuts4xu]

I still hate dayton.

[markchal]

Aren't they like 23-7? I'm not a huge fan of them, but I'd have to assume that's enough to get them in.

[XU Cowbell Kid]

Aren't they like 23-7? I'm not a huge fan of them, but I'd have to assume that's enough to get them in.

Murray State is 27-5 and probably not going to make the tournament. Granted, there is a bit of a difference in strength of schedule (115 for Dayton, 234 for Murray State), but the point here is that the record doesn't mean everything.

[kyxu]

Aren't they like 23-7? I'm not a huge fan of them, but I'd have to assume that's enough to get them in.

There are teams with gaudier records that will miss the tournament simply because of the quality (or lack thereof) of their wins.

[markchal]

But not from a quality conference, right? Not a ton of quality wins, but their SOS isn't terrible. I'm not saying they are a 7-seed, but I think they would be safely in (maybe play-in but they'd never have UD play at home).

[XUFan09]

But not from a quality conference, right? Not a ton of quality wins, but their SOS isn't terrible. I'm not saying they are a 7-seed, but I think they would be safely in (maybe play-in but they'd never have UD play at home).
Not terrible but a non-conference SOS of 147 is pretty bad.

[Xville]

Of course I'd like for us to win the whole damn thing but if we can just get one more that would be awesome...I think one more gets us off the 8-9 game...I'd love to be a 7 with Kansas or Gonzaga being the 2.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Dayton should be worried. DANCE card just downgraded them to 4 lines below the bust. Xavier is now a 6 seed according to the card. If Dayton loses tonight and A bunch of bid stealers win they might be kNITing and I would really enjoy that.

[Xville]

Dayton should be worried. DANCE card just downgraded them to 4 lines below the bust. Xavier is now a 6 seed according to the card. If Dayton loses tonight and A bunch of bid stealers win they might be kNITing and I would really enjoy that.

I'd be surprised to see us that high unless we win the whole big east tourney....though I would definitely take it....really there are maybe 3-4 teams I'd like for x to avoid if possible...the rest of them are easily beatable. I don't want kentucky, arizona, wisconsin and I guess duke just because I think Okafor would have a freaking field day

[Muskied]

I'd be surprised to see us that high unless we win the whole big east tourney....though I would definitely take it....really there are maybe 3-4 teams I'd like for x to avoid if possible...the rest of them are easily beatable. I don't want kentucky, arizona, wisconsin and I guess duke just because I think Okafor would have a freaking field day

I'm telling you, don't be surprised to see Xavier seeded much more favorable than we think. The committee puts a ton of weight in who you play and the conference you are in....They do some strange things sometimes, and teams 20-30 are really up in the air. By the book, Xavier is a solid 8-9, but I can completely see a 6 coming.

[xukeith]

Agree as I see X on the 8/9 fence. 7 is best case to get if win the tourney. Purely based on where we were and who X has to jump. It is the entire season, not just tourney although 9 top 50 wins would look strong!

[Titanxman04]

I'd be surprised to see us that high unless we win the whole big east tourney....though I would definitely take it....really there are maybe 3-4 teams I'd like for x to avoid if possible...the rest of them are easily beatable. I don't want kentucky, arizona, wisconsin and I guess duke just because I think Okafor would have a freaking field day

I think Duke would be a challenge, but not because of Okafor. If Reynolds plays smart, he would match up pretty well to him. Stain would get destroyed.

It's Duke's shooting that scares the piss out of me. Our three point defense is horrid, and Duke has got so many players that can hurt you from the outside. They would be raining in threes on us while we keep Okafor relatively in check.

I would agree that all of those teams would suck to have to go again, UK being the scariest for the obvious reasons. I pity the lambs for that slaughter.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Up to an 8 seed in Lunardi's bracektology. He still has Texas and Ole Miss in. Has UD as a 10 seed.

[drudy23]

I think Duke would be a challenge, but not because of Okafor. If Reynolds plays smart, he would match up pretty well to him. Stain would get destroyed.

It's Duke's shooting that scares the piss out of me. Our three point defense is horrid, and Duke has got so many players that can hurt you from the outside. They would be raining in threes on us while we keep Okafor relatively in check.

I would agree that all of those teams would suck to have to go again, UK being the scariest for the obvious reasons. I pity the lambs for that slaughter.

With all due respect, Okafor would eat Jalen's lunch. Jalen and smart don't go together yet...he'd have 2 fouls within 3 minutes.

[LA Muskie]

I love Jalen but he'd foul out in about 7 minutes against Okafor.

[Mrs. Garrett]

With all due respect, Okafor would eat Jalen's lunch. Jalen and smart don't go together yet...he'd have 2 fouls within 3 minutes.

Actually O'Mara matched up well against him in high school.http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/chi-whitney-young-wins-4a-title-0323-prep-bkb-4a-20140322-story.html

[xubrew]

Man, hate to argue with you twice in the same day, Brew, but GW and UConn are two teams that can absolutely make runs in their respective tourneys. Are they "likely" bid stealers? Maybe not, but the bubble dwellers need to be on the lookout.

The writing on the wall seems to indicate that the A10 will also steal a bid. The teams that are inside the bubble really aren't that much better than the teams that aren't.

[drudy23]

Actually O'Mara matched up well against him in high school.http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/chi-whitney-young-wins-4a-title-0323-prep-bkb-4a-20140322-story.html

Okafor looks 30 pounds lighter in those pictures. Let's not think O'Mara could shut him down next week. We both know that's crazy talk.

[Mrs. Garrett]

Okafor looks 30 pounds lighter in those pictures. Let's not think O'Mara could shut him down next week. We both know that's crazy talk.

All I said was matched up well. Nothing about shutting anyone down.

[Masterofreality]

Davidson dodged a bullet today from LaSuck

[XUFan09]

Okay, here's the next round of who to root against in bold and their opponent. Keep in mind that I'm using Bracket Matrix's composite:

11:30 - San Diego State vs. Colorado State. Yes, I listed CSU as a team to root against before, but after the Xavier win, I don't think they are a threat anymore, while SDSU most definitely is.
11:30 - Oregon vs, Utah. Definitely don't want them picking up a big win.
12:00 - SMU vs. East Carolina. They're up on the 6 seed line currently, but if they pick up a bad loss, Xavier could pass them up.
12:00 - Davidson vs. La Salle. After beating Butler, I think Xavier doesn't have to worry about them anymore, but just to be safe.
2:30 - VCU vs. Richmond. They are so different without Briante Weber that I think the will end up being seeded lower than where bracketologists have them, but just to be safe.
3:00 - LSU vs. Auburn. Added boost of rooting for a team on Xavier's schedule.
6:30 - Dayton vs. St. Bonaventure. Another team that I think is overseeded, but screw it, it's UD. If they lose to the Bonnies, they might not even make the tournament.
7:00 - Arkansas vs. Tennessee. Up on the 6 seed line, but Tennessee is a potentially bad loss that could pull them down below Xavier.
8:55 - Michigan State vs. Ohio State. Take your pick, as they both are potentialy around Xavier's seed line, though again, I think bracketologists are generally overseeded OSU. Because of that, I'm rooting against Michigan State.
9:00 - Cincinnati vs. UConn. Can Xavier fans handle rooting against UC? It might be tough...

Here's how it broke down:

- San Diego State won. They picked up a good win against Colorado State and might still be competing on Xavier's seed line.
- Oregon beat a good Utah team, keeping pace with Xavier.
- SMU avoided the upset against East Carolina. A 6 seed just became harder for Xavier, because SMU can't get a bad loss anymore.
- Davidson got the buzzer beater against La Salle. Still, I don't think they are a threat anymore, especially after the Georgetown win.
- VCU edged out Richmond. I still think they are overseeded, though.
- LSU lost (and Auburn won). I don't think they were a threat anymore after Xavier beat Georgetown, but now that's a sure thing.
- Dayton unfortunately won. I still think they're overseeded though.
- Arkansas won. Like with the SMU win, a 6 seed became harder for Xavier.
- Michigan State beat Ohio State. I think the other direction might have been better, but this ensures that OSU is not a threat.
- Cincinnati lost (Hahahaha). They are no longer a threat on Xavier's seed line, though I think Xavier would still be above them if they had won.

Though a great day for Xavier personally, it wasn't the best day for Xavier in terms of seeding. The most serious threats to Xavier in terms of seeding (San Diego State, Oregon, SMU, Arkansas, and Michigan State) all won. Projected 5 seeds West Virginia, Utah, and Georgetown all lost today, but they all lost to good teams not far ahead or behind them in the bracket. They might not really fall much, so it seems like a long shot that Xavier will pass one of them up this late in the season. All of the competitors but San Diego State are facing tournament teams (in two instances, top 10 teams) now, so they have really big opportunities, just like Xavier.

Providence lost today, ensuring that Xavier is still a threat to them, and Butler obviously hasn't done anything since losing to Xavier. Both of those teams are projected as 6 seeds, so Xavier has a chance to bump one of them out.

I'm confident that Xavier is a 7 seed now. If they lose to Villanova, they might end up an 8 seed if a few competitors do well, but if they win, it looks likely that they'll move up to a 6 seed.

[waggy]

Well hopefully X plays at a site where it's easy travel for everyone... Pittsburg, Columbus or Louisville. And hopefully the match-ups are favorable regardless of seed.

[Masterofreality]

Here's how it broke down:


- SMU avoided the upset against East Carolina. A 6 seed just became harder for Xavier, because SMU can't get a bad loss .

'09, would a loss by SMU to 74 RPI UCon be considered a "bad loss" if it comes to that?

[waggy]

'09, would a loss by SMU to 74 RPI UCon be considered a "bad loss" if it comes to that?

Would be a bad loss for someone on the bubble.

[XUFan09]

'09, would a loss by SMU to 74 RPI UCon be considered a "bad loss" if it comes to that?
Not really, especially since UConn is hosting. I can't remember, is it actually at their place or just nearby?

If Xavier wins and SMU loses, that would be enough, I think. If both lose, I think Xavier finishing ahead would rely on the two teams being closer on the real S-curve than bracketologists are predicting.

[Masterofreality]

Not really, especially since UConn is hosting. I can't remember, is it actually at their place or just nearby?

If Xavier wins and SMU loses, that would be enough, I think. If both lose, I think Xavier finishing ahead would rely on the two teams being closer on the real S-curve than bracketologists are predicting.

Not at Gampel Pavilion. It's at XL Center in Hartford. Considered a "neutral" court, although there were all of 9,514 people there last night, almost all of them UCon fans.

The AAAAAAAAAAAAAC is a joke.

[XUFan09]

Not at Gampel Pavilion. It's at XL Center in Hartford. Considered a "neutral" court, although there were all of 9,514 people there last night, almost all of them UCon fans.

The AAAAAAAAAAAAAC is a joke.
I think the Selection Committee is going to treat it as a semi-away game for anyone that plays UConn.

[XUFan09]

Okay, time to root against teams again. Remember, three of the projected 6 seeds (all Big East teams) are all out at this point:

1:30 - VCU vs. #24 Davidson. Just in case they aren't being overseeded. We don't want them to pick up a win against a ranked team. After Xavier picked up two big wins, I don't think Davidson is a threat anymore.
3:00 - SMU vs. UConn. I know I said that it wouldn't be a bad loss, but there is a chance that both losing would lead to Xavier finishing ahead.
3:25 - Michigan State vs. #8 Maryland. I'm worried that if both teams win or both teams lose, MSU will still finish ahead. If only one of them wins today, that team is probably higher on the S-curve.
6:00 - San Diego State vs. Wyoming. If SDSU loses, even if Xavier loses, I think Xavier finishes ahead. If they win and Xavier loses, though, the opposite might be true.
11:00 - Oregon vs. #5 Arizona. I think Xavier finishes ahead if both teams win or both lose. If Oregon wins and Xavier loses, though, the opposite might be true.

With a win, I think Xavier is a 6 seed, and with a loss, I think they are a 7 seed. However, if a number of these teams win, that might end up bumping Xavier a seed lower, to a 7 or an 8 seed, respectively.

Additional note: Root against Wisconsin, who is down 5 right now to Purdue. It increases the chances that Villanova gets the 1 seed.

[paulxu]

I think the Selection Committee is going to treat it as a semi-away game for anyone that plays UConn.

Is that anything like semi-boneless ham?

[XUFan09]

Is that anything like semi-boneless ham?

:loco:

[XUFan09]

Dan Gavitt being interviewed right now. He says the "in consideration" board has 14 teams left, with 5 still to be selected. Also, the differential between bubble teams is smaller this year, making it more difficult, even if there are fewer teams in consideration than normal. Noteworthy for Xavier, he also emphasized the minor differential in teams falling on lines 3 all the way down to 9, making seeding very difficult.

Finally, he's confident in UK as the overall number 1, even if they lose tomorrow (no surprise there).

[bobbiemcgee]

Dance Card still not impressed with UD after win over Bona:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[XUOWNSUC]

Dan Gavitt being interviewed right now. He says the "in consideration" board has 14 teams left, with 5 still to be selected. Also, the differential between bubble teams is smaller this year, making it more difficult, even if there are fewer teams in consideration than normal. Noteworthy for Xavier, he also emphasized the minor differential in teams falling on lines 3 all the way down to 9, making seeding very difficult.

Finally, he's confident in UK as the overall number 1, even if they lose tomorrow (no surprise there).

Did he mention anything in particular that this year's committee is emphasizing - RPI, road record, KenPom, etc.?

[XUFan09]

Did he mention anything in particular that this year's committee is emphasizing - RPI, road record, KenPom, etc.?
Unfortunately nothing like that.

[XUFan09]

Okay, time to root against teams again. Remember, three of the projected 6 seeds (all Big East teams) are all out at this point:

1:30 - VCU vs. #24 Davidson. Just in case they aren't being overseeded. We don't want them to pick up a win against a ranked team. After Xavier picked up two big wins, I don't think Davidson is a threat anymore.
3:00 - SMU vs. UConn. I know I said that it wouldn't be a bad loss, but there is a chance that both losing would lead to Xavier finishing ahead.
3:25 - Michigan State vs. #8 Maryland. I'm worried that if both teams win or both teams lose, MSU will still finish ahead. If only one of them wins today, that team is probably higher on the S-curve.
6:00 - San Diego State vs. Wyoming. If SDSU loses, even if Xavier loses, I think Xavier finishes ahead. If they win and Xavier loses, though, the opposite might be true.
11:00 - Oregon vs. #5 Arizona. I think Xavier finishes ahead if both teams win or both lose. If Oregon wins and Xavier loses, though, the opposite might be true.

With a win, I think Xavier is a 6 seed, and with a loss, I think they are a 7 seed. However, if a number of these teams win, that might end up bumping Xavier a seed lower, to a 7 or an 8 seed, respectively.

Additional note: Root against Wisconsin, who is down 5 right now to Purdue. It increases the chances that Villanova gets the 1 seed.
I don't know why I had SMU vs. UConn. SMU beat Temple, and UConn just came back to beat Tulsa.

Bad day for us. VCU, SMU, and Michigan State all won. San Diego State in a close game with Wyoming.