Bubble Watch

[paulxu]

I don't claim to understand the RPI/bubble stuff. And I know Lunardi's track record vs. some other guys, well, sucks.
But this is interesting. Beating ranked Butler at home, then losing to St Johns by 1 in MSG...caused our seed to go UP to a 7, and St John's to go down to 10.
Boy, I sure wish we had pulled that out in the Garden.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Musketeer_15]

Look at us sitting pretty on Lunardi's bracket (yes, it isn't the real one) while UC and UD are hanging on for their lives. Also, UD still has to travel to VCU and LaSalle and Rhode Island comes in to the Dump next week. This next week is do or DIE for them

[THRILLHOUSE]

I don't claim to understand the RPI/bubble stuff. And I know Lunardi's track record vs. some other guys, well, sucks.
But this is interesting. Beating ranked Butler at home, then losing to St Johns by 1 in MSG...caused our seed to go UP to a 7, and St John's to go down to 10.
Boy, I sure wish we had pulled that out in the Garden.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

X was an 8 seed in his bracket yesterday. Looks like he must have had X as the first or 2nd 8 seed and put them on the 7 line after Ole Miss and Indiana lost last night.

[Xville]

I wouldn't put any stock into where Lunardi has us seeded. I'm pretty confident when I say that Lunardi is a complete hack when it comes to where to put teams outside of the 1 and 2 seeds. I do think he does a decent job of whether or not a team is going to get in, but in reality anyone with a pen and paper and half a brain can probably get 90-95% of the teams correct.

[Xville]

We need to win this game saturday. I really don't want X going into Creighton on Senior Day needing a win...especially against a team with zero to lose.

[IM4X]

I don't claim to understand the RPI/bubble stuff. And I know Lunardi's track record vs. some other guys, well, sucks.
But this is interesting. Beating ranked Butler at home, then losing to St Johns by 1 in MSG...caused our seed to go UP to a 7, and St John's to go down to 10.
Boy, I sure wish we had pulled that out in the Garden.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology


Yeah, that is a bit strange. Good move by Father Graham to have Lunardi put on on the payroll ;)

Seriously though, having Joe put X up to a 7 seed could at least have NCAA tournament selection committee members subconsciously thinking a tad more favorably of X when it comes to selection Sunday.

As far as seeding goes, personally, I don't care if X gets a 7 seed, a 10 seed, a 6 seed, an 11 seed, a 12 seed, a 5 seed (though it's not likely to happen), a 13 seed, or even a 14 seed.

We just need to get in and not at a 8/9 seed or a 15 seed, or a 16 seed (though it's not likely), and absolutely not the dreaded play-in game (oh, I mean a first round game).

[GoMuskies]

I'm still puzzled by the absolute fear and loathing associated with the 8/9 game. Teams with #8 and #9 seeds have been to the Final Four. More recently than any higher seeded team, too. The lower your seed, the better your chance to win the first game, too. And you can't really worry about your second game until you've won your first.

[kyxu]

I'm still puzzled by the absolute fear and loathing associated with the 8/9 game. Teams with #8 and #9 seeds have been to the Final Four. More recently than any higher seeded team, too. The lower your seed, the better your chance to win the first game, too. And you can't really about your second game until you've won your first.

This.

[Xville]

I'm still puzzled by the absolute fear and loathing associated with the 8/9 game. Teams with #8 and #9 seeds have been to the Final Four. More recently than any higher seeded team, too. The lower your seed, the better your chance to win the first game, too. And you can't really worry about your second game until you've won your first.

as long as the #1 isn't Kentucky, I don't care if we are in the 8/9. The other #1's are very beatable, not saying that Kentucky isn't...but X would have a much better shot against the others. Arizona would be fun.

[GoMuskies]

I assume Arizona will be a #2 out West to Gonzaga's #1 seed.

And yes, I wouldn't want us anywhere near Kentucky. Let's let someone else deal with them!

[muskiefan82]

as long as the #1 isn't Kentucky, I don't care if we are in the 8/9. The other #1's are very beatable, not saying that Kentucky isn't...but X would have a much better shot against the others. Arizona would be fun.

I have watched a lot of Kentucky this year and I have to say this: When UK shoots well, they CAN'T be beaten. When they have an average or below shooting night, they can be beaten if the team they are playing has the horses to play with them without getting worn down. Fortunately for UK, the SEC doesn't have as many teams who can do what is necessary to beat UK when they are off. I believe that X does have the horses and could actually play with UK IF UK is off just a little on their shooting.

Nobody can touch UK if they can hit from three. Just forget it. But when they aren't on, teams in the NCAA tournament can beat them.

I would LOVE to get UK in the tournament. Talk about nothing to lose and everything to gain.

[drudy23]

No team is unbeatable.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

With this team, I want two things. Make the tourney 2nd round and win a game. If game two is a loss to UK, ok. It was a good season.

[RoseyMuskie]

With this team, I want two things. Make the tourney 2nd round and win a game. If game two is a loss to UK, ok. It was a good season.

While the normal goal in my eyes is to make the second weekend, I don't think a second round loss to KY would be disappointing from an expectations standpoint, this season.

[kyxu]

I would LOVE to get UK in the tournament. Talk about nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Well, the season would be over if we lost, so I would say that's something to lose. UK also has plenty to gain as in one step closer to a title.

[GoMuskies]

While the normal goal in my eyes is to make the second weekend, I don't think a second round loss to KY would be disappointing from an expectations standpoint, this season.

No, I think that would pretty much meet season expectations. I would still walk away with a bad taste if we got the shit kicked out of us, though.

[RoseyMuskie]

No, I think that would pretty much meet season expectations. I would still walk away with a bad taste if we got the shit kicked out of us, though.

Exactly. Any tourney loss is disappointing. But if we are realistic about it, our chances of defeating a one or two seed likely don't exceed 40%.

But that's why the game is played!

[bobbiemcgee]

Dance card seemed to like the loss. We went up a spot:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Milhouse]

This year I'd be excstatic with seeing the boys play sat/sun that first weekend of the Madness. Don't care how they get there. Just play.

[Milhouse]

Dance card seemed to like the loss. We went up a spot:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Like all teams. X doesn't exist by itself. Our seeding/likeliness of making tournament depends just as much as the play of other teams around us as our own play.

[xu82]

No, I think that would pretty much meet season expectations. I would still walk away with a bad taste if we got the shit kicked out of us, though.

I hear we're athletically challenged for the Big East, but I'm sure Kentucky would be no problem. YIKES! Hey..... you just never, never know!

[Xville]

I have watched a lot of Kentucky this year and I have to say this: When UK shoots well, they CAN'T be beaten. When they have an average or below shooting night, they can be beaten if the team they are playing has the horses to play with them without getting worn down. Fortunately for UK, the SEC doesn't have as many teams who can do what is necessary to beat UK when they are off. I believe that X does have the horses and could actually play with UK IF UK is off just a little on their shooting.

Nobody can touch UK if they can hit from three. Just forget it. But when they aren't on, teams in the NCAA tournament can beat them.

I would LOVE to get UK in the tournament. Talk about nothing to lose and everything to gain.

I have watched a ton of UK as well...living in this area is miserable around tourney time because of being surrounded by Hickville UK fans but I digress...

There are teams that can beat UK in the tournament, but I don't feel the need to have Xavier play them in the second round and just see if we can hang around. Been there done that with Ohio State, and don't want to relive that nightmare again. I'd rather play them after we have reached the final four.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Like all teams. X doesn't exist by itself. Our seeding/likeliness of making tournament depends just as much as the play of other teams around us as our own play.

Which is why we are pretty solidly in the dance at this point to so many people's surprise.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I get what some say as just wanting to be the highest seed, etc, but there is no way I would rather be an 8 or a 9 seed if I could be a 10 seed instead. 10/7 is just as much as a toss up as 8/9 so its not like we play a significantly tougher team and then you dont have to play a 1 seed the next round if you win. There is actually a chance you get to play a 15 seed as we all know. There is zero chance you dont play a 1 seed in round two.

[xufan2434]

I get what some say as just wanting to be the highest seed, etc, but there is no way I would rather be an 8 or a 9 seed if I could be a 10 seed instead. 10/7 is just as much as a toss up as 8/9 so its not like we play a significantly tougher team and then you dont have to play a 1 seed the next round if you win. There is actually a chance you get to play a 15 seed as we all know. There is zero chance you dont play a 1 seed in round two.

Agreed... Every time X has gone to the sweet 16 or beyond it's been at the bottom of the bracket or a 4 seed. I agree it wouldn't be the end of the world but as long as we're getting in, I'm going to want to be at the bottom of the bracket with a much better chance of some magic. I don't think X would be scared of any team they'd play in a 6/11 or 7/10 game. And after that, anything can happen. The landscape for seeding can change drastically if X wins on Saturday. But then again collapse next week. It's kind of crazy but I don't think I'll be confident in saying X will be any kind of seed 6 through 11 until after the first game in the BE tourney

[MADXSTER]

There are 68 spots.....
There are 33 conferences....
That leaves 35 at large spots....

Every year there are teams in a smaller conference that loses the conference tournament and takes one of the 35 at large spots. This is the unknown variable that can affect how many teams get in from the BE as well as other conferences.

[IM4X]

I get what some say as just wanting to be the highest seed, etc, but there is no way I would rather be an 8 or a 9 seed if I could be a 10 seed instead. 10/7 is just as much as a toss up as 8/9 so its not like we play a significantly tougher team and then you dont have to play a 1 seed the next round if you win. There is actually a chance you get to play a 15 seed as we all know. There is zero chance you dont play a 1 seed in round two.


I'm still puzzled by the absolute fear and loathing associated with the 8/9 game. Teams with #8 and #9 seeds have been to the Final Four. More recently than any higher seeded team, too. The lower your seed, the better your chance to win the first game, too. And you can't really worry about your second game until you've won your first.


If this X team happened to be playing the way the 2003/04 team was playing at this point of the season, I'd agree about not worrying so much about the 8/9 seed. Those guys started kicking the crap out of teams late in the season, game after game and became fearless –100% bad asses by Tournament time.

The current X team shows up and plays well for a game or a half, and then doesn't play well for stretches. There are no players on this team that have been hot for more than a few games at a time. Just in this last game, our two seniors had rather disappointing games. If this team draws a tough 8 or 9 mach-up and wins, they are vary likely to play a 1 seed that is loaded with great players who've played well all season and who have most likely just won a relatively easy game.

The 03/04 team with seniors Chalmers and Sato (and Myles) wouldn't bat an eyelash at having to play against a 1 seed. That team had players who were on fire for many consecutive games. In order for the current X team to pull off a 2nd round upset (or technically a 3rd round upset) against a 1 seed, the players and coaches would need to bringing their A-game again in that second game. How many A-games has X had in the past 15 games: 2? Maybe 3?

This team can still pull it together and possibly have a run (if they get invited to the dance). But a 8/9 seed could be brutal for them.

That's my point I'm making about not wanting the 8/9 draw this year. Though I'd take it over not getting ii... so there is that.

[xufan2434]

If this X team happened to be playing the way the 2003/04 team was playing at this point of the season, I'd agree about not worrying so much about the 8/9 seed. Those guys started kicking the crap out of teams late in the season, game after game and became fearless –100% bad asses by Tournament time.

The current X team shows up and plays well for a game or a half, and then doesn't play well for stretches. There are no players on this team that have been hot for more than a few games at a time. Just in this last game, our two seniors had rather disappointing games. If this team draws a tough 8 or 9 mach-up and wins, they are vary likely to play a 1 seed that is loaded with great players who've played well all season and who have most likely just won a relatively easy game.

The 03/04 team with seniors Chalmers and Sato (and Myles) wouldn't bat an eyelash at having to play against a 1 seed. That team had players who were on fire for many consecutive games. In order for the current X team to pull off a 2nd round upset (or technically a 3rd round upset) against a 1 seed, the players and coaches would need to bringing their A-game again in that second game. How many A-games has X had in the past 15 games: 2? Maybe 3?

This team can still pull it together and possibly have a run (if they get invited to the dance). But a 8/9 seed could be brutal for them.

That's my point I'm making about not wanting the 8/9 draw this year. Though I'd take it over not getting ii... so there is that.

Only thing I will draw comparisons from is that team beat a #1 seed already heading into the tournament and gave them a ton of confidence. If X beats Nova this Saturday, it could give them a big confidence boost as well. Maybe not in terms of beating a number 1 seed, but certainly competing with a number 2 if it were to come to that.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Every year there are teams in a smaller conference that loses the conference tournament and takes one of the 35 at large spots. This is the unknown variable that can affect how many teams get in from the BE as well as other conferences.

Not a whole lot of risk of that this year though. Only small conferences that could steal a bid would be if Gonzaga loses the WCC and if both Wichita and UNI lose the MVC. As discussed in another thread (or maybe even this thread), highly unlikely that Murray State or Stephen F Austin would get an at-large if they lose their conference tourneys.

[nuts4xu]

http://www.animewallpaperhi.com/thumbnails/detail/20120711/brunettes%20women%20bathing%20bubbles%20strategic% 20covering%20brittany%20marie%20guzik%201500x998%2 0wallpaper_www.wallpaperfo.com_72.jpg

I love bubbles!!

Giggity!

[X-band '01]

It just now occurred to me.

Lots of our poutier and younger fans are complaining about the 3 "worst" seasons in recent memory.

2005 - no postseason (pre-CBI era)
2006 - #14 NCAA seed via automatic bid
2007 - #9 NCAA seed

That 2007 team beat BYU in Lexington and then played a game that shall not be named.

Compare to the last 3 seasons:

2013 - no postseason (turned down CBI)
2014 - #12 seed (lost to NC State in Dayton)
2015 - are currently on a trajectory for the 8/9 game

I think Xavier would be shipped to Louisville for travel reasons should they get the 8/9 line. It'll be next to impossible getting tickets, but I'm not going to lose sleep over getting that type of a draw.

Drawing Virginia or Duke in Charlotte or even Gonzaga in Seattle wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, either.

[drudy23]

Let's get in first...and then win the first one.

[Xville]

Getting closer and closer to lock status...by around 4:30 tomorrow, we will be there.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

[drudy23]

Gotta get this win tomorrow. Cintas packed and stacked!!!!

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still a 7 seed in Lunardi's bracket today.

[xubrew]

It just now occurred to me.

Lots of our poutier and younger fans are complaining about the 3 "worst" seasons in recent memory.

2005 - no postseason (pre-CBI era)
2006 - #14 NCAA seed via automatic bid
2007 - #9 NCAA seed

That 2007 team beat BYU in Lexington and then played a game that shall not be named.

Compare to the last 3 seasons:

2013 - no postseason (turned down CBI)
2014 - #12 seed (lost to NC State in Dayton)
2015 - are currently on a trajectory for the 8/9 game

I think Xavier would be shipped to Louisville for travel reasons should they get the 8/9 line. It'll be next to impossible getting tickets, but I'm not going to lose sleep over getting that type of a draw.

Drawing Virginia or Duke in Charlotte or even Gonzaga in Seattle wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, either.

Had we just held on to beat the Johnnies we'd probably be inside the #8 line.

I realize that you can pick any team's profile apart because close games are part of it, but between Auburn, UTEP, Johnnies and Providence we're about ten points away from being a first ballot team had things just gone a little differently. A #7 or #6 seed in Columbus or Louisville would be in the cards. If only.

Oh well. If we can pick up one of the last two and avoid a loss in the quarterfinals, we're suddenly 5-2 in our last seven against really solid competition, so we still have a chance to build the resume.

[GoMuskies]

We're not really "avoiding a loss in the QF", though. We'll be the 6 seed playing the 3 seed in all likelihood.

[kyxu]

Gotta get this win tomorrow. Cintas packed and stacked!!!!

Anyone know the ticket status for tomorrow's game? Last I checked last night, there were still some tickets left.

[94GRAD]

That's why we're 340ish in luck

[Xville]

We're not really "avoiding a loss in the QF", though. We'll be the 6 seed playing the 3 seed in all likelihood.

Besides our game on Saturday, that Gtown-SJU matchup is huge in terms of where we may fall in the standings...if SJU wins that game, we will probably be the 6th seed even if we win both of our remaining games...if G'town wins that game, we can sneak up to 5th if we win our last two.

Interesting thing is that I ran some numbers and it is very possible that with the games they have left Providence, Gtown and Butler could all end up finishing at 12-6. I'm too lazy to look up who would be the #4 seed in that scenario, but thought that was interesting.

[xu82]

That's why we're 340ish in luck

Is that a three leaf clover you're sporting? Add a leaf and it could be the answer to our prayers!

[xubrew]

We're not really "avoiding a loss in the QF", though. We'll be the 6 seed playing the 3 seed in all likelihood.

Poor choice of words on my part. "Pick up another good win in the quarters" would have been a better way of putting it.

[Xville]

Anyone know the ticket status for tomorrow's game? Last I checked last night, there were still some tickets left.

not sure about ticketmaster, but on stub hub there are 280 tickets still left...if anyone is thinking about going to the game, you can pick some up in the upper deck for 30-40 dollars.

[xu82]

Is that a three leaf clover you're sporting? Add a leaf and it could be the answer to our prayers!

And now, from both the "Wasn't That Ironic" and the "Wish I was Kidding" categories, I dropped my iPad while typing that and broke the screen... some luck!

[94GRAD]

And now, from both the "Wasn't That Ironic" and the "Wish I was Kidding" categories, I dropped my Ipad while typing that and broke the screen... some luck!

Public reps since the man is keeping me down

[D-West & PO-Z]

not sure about ticketmaster, but on stub hub there are 280 tickets still left...if anyone is thinking about going to the game, you can pick some up in the upper deck for 30-40 dollars.

Down to as low as $24 now on stubhub.

[IM4X]

Only thing I will draw comparisons from is that team beat a #1 seed already heading into the tournament and gave them a ton of confidence. If X beats Nova this Saturday, it could give them a big confidence boost as well. Maybe not in terms of beating a number 1 seed, but certainly competing with a number 2 if it were to come to that.


I agree that beating Nova could (and should) give the team a big confidence boost. Let's hope this team shows tenacity like we've never seen from them before and everything really starts clicking and continues to click for a long stretch. This team needs to kick Nova's butt and start believing and playing like no one can touch them. That is my point about comparing this team to the 03/04 team.

That team had balls of titanium going into the end of the season and we all were feeling like, "look out (next opponent name here no matter the seed), you are about to get smoked." With the current team it's like, "Man if X could just shoot and defend well consistently and stop the stupid turnovers and dumb passes, we could actually be pretty good" Hopefully that feeling will change after the Nova game.

Now is the time time for this team to put it all together and show everyone how good they can be. And it starts with the seniors.

Matt. Dee. Show the world you too have balls of Titanium...figuratively speaking of course.

[Milhouse]

." With the current team it's like, "Man if X could just shoot and defend well consistently and stop the stupid turnovers and dumb passes, we could actually be pretty good"

.

Doesn't this quote apply to nearly every single team in D1?

[Xavier_Musketeers]

Xavier is listed as an 8 seed playing Kentucky in a lot of the tournament predictions, that is the one team I wouldn't want to play. I hope we can beat Nova and move our seed up

[IM4X]

Doesn't this quote apply to nearly every single team in D1?

Not to the teams that are seeded 4 or higher. And probably not any top 40 team that has dominated their past 5 plus opponents.

But yeah probably everyone else.

[gladdenguy]

I don't think it's that at all. It's that pining after the guy after 3 years is pathetic. Sad. Pathetic. Abnormal. Take your pick. Dez is not the second coming to basketball by any stretch. He's going to the tournament for the first time since he wore an X uniform, and if you listen to ANY analyst, they'll tell you that Maryland is, to use Clark Kellogg's word, pedestrian. . You can say he'd be a senior leader, but there's no way to actually know that. You're assuming. He could be just as good of a senior leader as Dee. Who the hell knows? Either way, it doesn't matter because he's gone and it's time to let it go. Channel Elsa. Let. It. Go.

If Maryland is "pedestrian" and a top 4 seed........Xavier must be terrible. The almighty Clark Kellogg. Wowwwwwwwww!!!!!!

[LadyMuskie]

If Maryland is "pedestrian" and a top 4 seed........Xavier must be terrible. The almighty Clark Kellogg. Wowwwwwwwww!!!!!!

I keep forgetting how you're paid the big bucks to analyze basketball, GG. All the pearls of wisdom you drop on this board are just so useful and insightful. I don't know how I could forget. It must be because of how well you hide your brilliance.

Some free advice from all of us here at XH to you: the view of the world is a lot broader and better if you would dare remove your lips from Dez's rear end. Dez Wells has done nothing for you and will never do anything for you. Whereas, Xavier University has given you, for whatever reason, a diploma so that you can earn a living and provide. Try appreciating what you have instead of chasing after what left. You'll be better for it.

[Juice]

I keep forgetting how you're paid the big bucks to analyze basketball, GG. All the pearls of wisdom you drop on this board are just so useful and insightful. I don't know how I could forget. It must be because of how well you hide your brilliance.

Some free advice from all of us here at XH to you: the view of the world is a lot broader and better if you would dare remove your lips from Dez's rear end. Dez Wells has done nothing for you and will never do anything for you. Whereas, Xavier University has given you, for whatever reason, a diploma so that you can earn a living and provide. Try appreciating what you have instead of chasing after what left. You'll be better for it.

I sort of see your point buts it's not like he didn't pay a butt load in tuition to X.

[Xville]

I keep forgetting how you're paid the big bucks to analyze basketball, GG. All the pearls of wisdom you drop on this board are just so useful and insightful. I don't know how I could forget. It must be because of how well you hide your brilliance.

Some free advice from all of us here at XH to you: the view of the world is a lot broader and better if you would dare remove your lips from Dez's rear end. Dez Wells has done nothing for you and will never do anything for you. Whereas, Xavier University has given you, for whatever reason, a diploma so that you can earn a living and provide. Try appreciating what you have instead of chasing after what left. You'll be better for it.

What? Xavier didn't give him anything...he paid (unless he got a scholarship which he would have earned) a ton of money, worked his behind off and earned his diploma. Dez worked his ass off, earned his scholarship, and then got bent over by an incompetent administration that for years hid certain atrocities that led to a federal probe. I'm happy for Dez and wish he was still here. Sue me.

[LadyMuskie]

What? Xavier didn't give him anything...he paid (unless he got a scholarship which he would have earned) a ton of money, worked his behind off and earned his diploma. Dez worked his ass off, earned his scholarship, and then got bent over by an incompetent administration that for years hid certain atrocities that led to a federal probe. I'm happy for Dez and wish he was still here. Sue me.

I'm sure Dez is still weeping at night about "getting bent over". Something tells me he's moved on. You should honor your fallen idol by doing the same.

[Xville]

I'm sure Dez is still weeping at night about "getting bent over". Something tells me he's moved on. You should honor your fallen idol by doing the same.

Funny coming from someone whose signature line is from tu.

[X-man]

I am very happy for Dez, and what he has been able to do at Maryland. That said, I am sorry that we are not saying good-by to him at the Cintas today. He was, and is by all accounts, a really good young man. It's sad that he got caught in a situation at Xavier that in an important way, was not of his making and he paid a heavy price for it. But I agree with Lady here; it's time to move on.

[DC Muskie]

I follow Purdue a little bit and man does the bubble get worse and worse. They are tied for second in the Big Ten but have two very terrible home losses in Non conference.

How much do people look at the way you are playing in February when deciding your worthiness of playing in the dance? Purdue is playing really well lately, but man they sit on the bubble with an RPI at 58.

[X-band '01]

Officially, the last 10 (or 12) games are not part of the selection criteria. I would say it's just morphed into part of the "eye test" nowadays.

Also keep in mind that one of those losses is to A-Sun leader North Florida. It's still a horrific loss, but it could be one that goes dancing (as opposed to FL-Gulf Coast that Xavier beat in December).

[LadyMuskie]

Funny coming from someone whose signature line is from tu.

I know, right? Like how I actively bring up Tu in every single thread and post?!?! Cuz, it's exactly the same thing. You're a genius to notice!

[paulxu]

Being on the bubble sucks.
Being below the bubble would suck even more.

[Xville]

Being on the bubble sucks.
Being below the bubble would suck even more.

this is now the fourth year in a row where we have had to consistently talk about the stupid bubble. It is getting really old!

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier moves down one spot to a 8 seed in Lunardi's latest bracket.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I know we were talking about BYU's big win on here the other day but other than that one win their resume is not good.

They have 1 top 50 win (a very good one @Gonzaga)
4 total top 100 wins
3 sub 100 losses (2 to the #150 team)
12 of their 21 wins have come against teams sub 150 RPI teams.

[XfansinKy]

I've almost forgot what its like to have a bada$$ bunch of kids who somehow give you the feeling they are gonna get it done. Is next year going to be better with our additions?

[Xville]

I've almost forgot what its like to have a bada$$ bunch of kids who somehow give you the feeling they are gonna get it done. Is next year going to be better with our additions?

of course no one can predict this for sure. However, my personal feeling is that next year we may be a little better than this year....I think two years from now, we will be in great shape. We will have some senior leadership with Myles and Jalen...Tre and JP will be upper classmen..either Austin or Sumner will emerge as the starting pg...or we will have some stud recruit at pg we don't even know about yet.

If I had to guess, next year is going to be another year where we have to talk about the stupid bubble. The following year, we are going to be talking about seed, and at least a top 3 finish in the conference.

[XfansinKy]

of course no one can predict this for sure. However, my personal feeling is that next year we may be a little better than this year....I think two years from now, we will be in great shape. We will have some senior leadership with Myles and Jalen...Tre and JP will be upper classmen..either Austin or Sumner will emerge as the starting pg...or we will have some stud recruit at pg we don't even know about yet.

If I had to guess, next year is going to be another year where we have to talk about the stupid bubble. The following year, we are going to be talking about seed, and at least a top 3 finish in the conference.

I hope Jalen n Myles don't take the immediate eligibility route as grad students.

[xubrew]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier moves down one spot to a 8 seed in Lunardi's latest bracket.

If this is accurate, then we're still three full lines inside the bubble. The question is how much stock do you put into it?

[kyxu]

of course no one can predict this for sure. However, my personal feeling is that next year we may be a little better than this year....I think two years from now, we will be in great shape. We will have some senior leadership with Myles and Jalen...Tre and JP will be upper classmen..either Austin or Sumner will emerge as the starting pg...or we will have some stud recruit at pg we don't even know about yet.

If I had to guess, next year is going to be another year where we have to talk about the stupid bubble. The following year, we are going to be talking about seed, and at least a top 3 finish in the conference.

I would be surprised if we get two more years out of Jalen.

[Xville]

If this is accurate, then we're still three full lines inside the bubble. The question is how much stock do you put into it?

In the end, who the heck knows....I look at this at first glance and think "there is no way we are still an 8 seed" then I dive into the teams also on the 8-9 seed line (like Georgia) and think "geez compared to these teams, I guess we are on the correct seed line" If you think about who has been in that 8-9 game historically, my perspective is that this Xavier team fits right in. Usually it is a high conference club who had some good wins and some weird losses throughout the year...maybe underacheived a little bit, who could either win their first game and put a complete scare into the #1 seed, or completely flame out in the first round. That sounds about right for this Xavier team.

[Muskie]

I would be surprised if we get two more years out of Jalen.
Maybe. Let's see if he progresses again this summer. I hope that he does. But he's got many things to work on still.

[Xville]

I would be surprised if we get two more years out of Jalen.

you may be correct. If he does next year what he really should do, then he may be gone after next year. However, until he consistently does what he should do game in and game out, I'm not going to worry about him leaving early.

Jalen next year should be a guy who averages 15 and 8...if he does that, a couple of things may happen...1.) he may leave early 2) we may be one year ahead of getting back to where we should be. I'd be fine with both of those.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I would be surprised if we get two more years out of Jalen.

Why? You think he will enter the draft? He would have to have a pretty monster year I would think. Not to say he wont. I do get that he is a lot older than the average sophomore though so I know age may play a factor in his decision if he made the decision to leave. I just feel like there are plenty of Jalen Reynolds type players out there that go to the NBA, and a lot younger ones which show a lot of development to be had. But if he shows an improved post game, improved defense, and better overall awareness on the court I guess it could happen.

[D-West & PO-Z]

If this is accurate, then we're still three full lines inside the bubble. The question is how much stock do you put into it?


In the end, who the heck knows....I look at this at first glance and think "there is no way we are still an 8 seed" then I dive into the teams also on the 8-9 seed line (like Georgia) and think "geez compared to these teams, I guess we are on the correct seed line" If you think about who has been in that 8-9 game historically, my perspective is that this Xavier team fits right in. Usually it is a high conference club who had some good wins and some weird losses throughout the year...maybe underacheived a little bit, who could either win their first game and put a complete scare into the #1 seed, or completely flame out in the first round. That sounds about right for this Xavier team.

Yeah I think is about right for right now, the question is how far do we drop with a loss @Creighton? That would start to really scare me. Couple that with a first round BE tourney loss and that would make 5 losses in a row to end the season and I think we would be on outside looking in unless the rest of the bubble craps themselves as well and we would maybe sneak in.

I think we could afford a loss to Creighton if we won our first round BE game but I wouldnt want to see it come to that.

[GoMuskies]

I just cannot see the committee putting in a 14 loss Xavier team. Maybe with TWO Big East Tournament wins, but man that's a lot of losses!

[toledodan]

I just cannot see the committee putting in a 14 loss Xavier team. Maybe with TWO Big East Tournament wins, but man that's a lot of losses!

agreed. creighton is a must win. you going?

[GoMuskies]

you going?

Unfortunately not. I am going to New Orleans and Vegas next week (I know, tough life), so I cannot leave the wife/kids Saturday, too. Also, I have a VERY important 4 and under basketball game to coach at the YMCA on Saturday morning.

[toledodan]

Unfortunately not. I am going to New Orleans and Vegas next week (I know, tough life), so I cannot leave the wife/kids Saturday, too. Also, I have a VERY important 4 and under basketball game to coach at the YMCA on Saturday morning.

enjoy the trip and good luck saturday. we are doing the breakfast gig again. sister rose is the speaker this year. hopefully she has better luck.

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier moves down one spot to a 8 seed in Lunardi's latest bracket.

Didnt notice this earlier but Lunardi now has Nova as a 1 seed.

[Masterofreality]

Didnt notice this earlier but Lunardi now has Nova as a 1 seed.

And they should be. ESPN was incessantly pumping Gonzaga...to screw the Big East. Now that Gonzaga lost, the emperor has no clothes.

[GoMuskies]

They may have been pumping Gonzaga because they were 28-1 with only an OT loss at Arizona. Just a thought, though.

[Xville]

espn has had a hard-on for gonzaga well over a decade now...the big east has nothing to do with it...

[GoMuskies]

espn has had a hard-on for gonzaga well over a decade now...the big east has nothing to do with it...

Over the last ten years, Gonzaga is 272-65. So....

[throwbackmuskie]

Last year and this year are when being in the Big East payoff.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Over the last ten years, Gonzaga is 272-65. So....

I am not a Gonzaga hater by any means but when you look at their numbers this year, 20 of their 28 wins have come against teams ranked 101 or worse of the RPI.

11 of those 20 are ranked 182 or worse.

They usually play a pretty decent OOC schedule though because they have to and they did pick up some nice non con wins but I dont think they should be anywhere near the 1 seed.

[Xville]

Over the last ten years, Gonzaga is 272-65. So....

i understand what you are saying but what have they done in the tournament for the last decade to warrant such media attention

[GoMuskies]

Not after losing to BYU, no.

[GoMuskies]

i understand what you are saying but what have they done in the tournament for the last decade to warrant such media attention

There's more to the college basketball season than just the Tournament.

[Xville]

There's more to the college basketball season than just the Tournament.

Because of the conference they play in, I respectfully disagree. And, I am by no means a gonzaga hater either but espn seems to prop them up on a pedestal that really they haven't earned in my opinion. They are a good basketball team, and they are a good program.

[GoMuskies]

They've won 9 NCAA Tournament games in the last decade (not counting this year yet).

[Xville]

They've won 9 NCAA Tournament games in the last decade (not counting this year yet).

xavier has ten, we have been to two elite eights, 4 sweet sixteens, Zags have been to two sweet sixteens in the past decade. how much talk is there of xavier on the national level?

I just think the Zags benefit media wise a lot because they are out west, play in a pretty weak conference they are able to dominate, and they win games, but from year to year they don't have that great of wins...you know how many ranked teams they have beaten the last four years? Three

Again, I'm not saying I hate Gonzaga, I like the way they play basketball, and I like their program. I just don't understand why they are propped up every year like they are. That's all im saying.

[LA Muskie]

I like Gonzaga. I like Xavier more (a lot more). But I still like Gonzaga.

[D-West & PO-Z]

71.4% of Gonzaga's wins are against Sub 100 RPI teams.

That is 23% more than any other team vying for a number 1 seed. UVA is second with 48.1%

Difference is even greater when you look that Gonzaga has 4 top 50 wins while every other team vying for the 1 seed has at least 9.

[GoMuskies]

Gonzaga's not vying for a #1 seed anymore.

[D-West & PO-Z]

My point is probably even more towards that even if they beat BYU they shouldnt have been considered for a 1 seed.

Edit: Well I guess considered but I dont think deserving.

[EastCoastXman]

Due to Zags weak conference schedule they are just not ready to play in the Big Dance. Announcers going over this the other day on Sirius 91. Said that the last 5 years they have gone out on the first weekend

2010 West 8 seed beat FL St and lost to Syracuse
2011 Southeast 11 seed beat St Johns and lost to BYU
2012 East 7 seed beat W Va and lost to Ohio St
2013 West 1 seed beat Southern lost to Wich St
2014 West 8 seed beat Ok St and lost to AZ


Good resource for tournament history www.allbrackets.com

[GoMuskies]

At 31-1, I think they should have been a #1 seed, Just like Wichita State deserved the #1 last year. In the end, the difference between #1 and #2 is fairly negligible anyway. Lose again, and #3 seed will be a big difference, though.

[Wheelhouse]

xavier has ten, we have been to two elite eights, 4 sweet sixteens, Zags have been to two sweet sixteens in the past decade. how much talk is there of xavier on the national level?

I just think the Zags benefit media wise a lot because they are out west, play in a pretty weak conference they are able to dominate, and they win games, but from year to year they don't have that great of wins...you know how many ranked teams they have beaten the last four years? Three

Again, I'm not saying I hate Gonzaga, I like the way they play basketball, and I like their program. I just don't understand why they are propped up every year like they are. That's all im saying.

The media loooooooooooooooooooves them some sgraggly-haired white boys playing solid hoops.

[GoMuskies]

Due to Zags weak conference schedule they are just not ready to play in the Big Dance.

I don't buy that even a little bit.

[GoMuskies]

Due to Zags weak conference schedule they are just not ready to play in the Big Dance. Announcers going over this the other day on Sirius 91. Said that the last 5 years they have gone out on the first weekend

2010 West 8 seed beat FL St and lost to Syracuse
2011 Southeast 11 seed beat St Johns and lost to BYU
2012 East 7 seed beat W Va and lost to Ohio St
2013 West 1 seed beat Southern lost to Wich St
2014 West 8 seed beat Ok St and lost to AZ


Good resource for tournament history www.allbrackets.com

To follow up, according to this, in the last 5 years the only lower seeded team they've lost to in the Tournament was Wichita State...who should have had the same "issues" as Gonzaga in being prepared for the Tournament. Wins over Florida State, St. John's, WV and OK State as a similar or lower seed doesn't really lend much credence to the hypothesis.

[MHettel]

Gonzaga is going to Seattle no matter what. All the teams that are vying for a 1 seed are situated in the East and will get regional games. The 2 seeds at this point could include Wisconsin and Arizona, who would likely get Omaha and Portland.

A 2 seed for Gonzaga is teh same as a 1. I'd like to see XU get a 10 or a 7 and come to Seattle and get a shot at the Zags....

[D-West & PO-Z]

Gonzaga is going to Seattle no matter what. All the teams that are vying for a 1 seed are situated in the East and will get regional games. The 2 seeds at this point could include Wisconsin and Arizona, who would likely get Omaha and Portland.

A 2 seed for Gonzaga is teh same as a 1. I'd like to see XU get a 10 or a 7 and come to Seattle and get a shot at the Zags....

Other than a 1 seed has NEVER lost a first round game and a 2 seed has lost a couple times the last few years. Its not a huge difference but it isnt zero difference either.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi was just on Mo Egger's show a little earlier and he told Mo that XU was in no matter what. Mo asked him about XU avoiding 14 losses in order to go in and he replied something to the affect that he didnt realize they were that close to 14 losses but that it didnt matter, XU was in.

Lunardi pretty confident XU is a lock.

[danaandvictory]

I think Lunardi is right, if X loses to Creighton and Butler they probably are over a 50/50 shot at being shipped to Dayton rather than the NIT. Awesome.

Just win a game and make it academic. The opening round crap may count as the tournament, but it is low-rent and awful.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think Lunardi is right, if X loses to Creighton and Butler they probably are over a 50/50 shot at being shipped to Dayton rather than the NIT. Awesome.

Just win a game and make it academic. The opening round crap may count as the tournament, but it is low-rent and awful.

Agreed.

This team should be able to beat Creighton regardless of it being there and their senior day.

Just. Beat. Creighton.

[Masterofreality]

What a ridiculously incredible league we're in now.

Just hope we have multiple teams in the Sweet. 16 and at least 1 in the Final 4.

[boozehound]

What a ridiculously incredible league we're in now.

Just hope we have multiple teams in the Sweet. 16 and at least 1 in the Final 4.

Agreed. Need a big tournament from Nova, and it would be nice to see another team (or 2) make the Sweet 16.

[Xavgrad08]

While I like Lunardi's theory that X is in no matter what lets not test it. Win at Creighton and lets go on a run in the NCAA tournament. One thing is for sure every bubble team has holes in the resume.

[LadyMuskie]

Lunardi may be right, but we all know that every year there is at least one team -if not several- that gets left out of the dance when everyone expected them to be in. While I hope to see our name on a line on Selection Sunday, I would not be surprised if we were that team everyone thought was in but doesn't make it.

[PM Thor]

I don't know if it has been said but the idiot Doc immediately assumes X loses at Creighton, then loses a game in the Big East tourney...meaning X is a 13 loss team...and thus should be a low seed or not in the tourney at all.

What a shill.

As for X, beat Creighton and shut everybody up. We lost to 2 strong tournament teams. It's not like we lost to Duquesne or Tulane or something. These are "good" losses, if there is such a thing. Win at Creighton, avoid the first round game in the BE tourney, and X is good. Oh and UC sucks.

And by the way, I LOVE THIS CONFERENCE. Love it. Brutal. Nothing handed to any team, ever. And the national media has to pay attention to league play. This conference rocks.

[Xavier]

Of the six potential Big East teams I think three have a shot at the sweet 16 (Nova, Butler, providence). I think Nova can get to the Final Four but it's always tough with a team that relies on the three so much. Then again, last year I thought Cregihton and nova were shoe ins for sweet 16

[Xavier]

I don't know if it has been said but the idiot Doc immediately assumes X loses at Creighton, then loses a game in the Big East tourney...meaning X is a 13 loss team...and thus should be a low seed or not in the tourney at all.

What a shill.



I think at 13 losses Xavier should be a low seed.

Unless youre saying he is a shill because we would have 14 losses? I mean I agree, he is a shill but don't think those comments are over the top

[LA Muskie]

I don't read enough Doc to hate him. But he sounds like a d-bag. That said, if his premise was that if we lose our next two we'll either get a shitty seed or a seat at home, I think he's probably right.

[xubrew]

Lunardi was just on Mo Egger's show a little earlier and he told Mo that XU was in no matter what. Mo asked him about XU avoiding 14 losses in order to go in and he replied something to the affect that he didnt realize they were that close to 14 losses but that it didnt matter, XU was in.

Lunardi pretty confident XU is a lock.

Uhh, I guess this is assuring. But, isn't that a rather critical piece of information to not be aware of??

[PM Thor]

I think at 13 losses Xavier should be a low seed.

Unless youre saying he is a shill because we would have 14 losses? I mean I agree, he is a shill but don't think those comments are over the top

He's ignoring that X could be a 19, 20 even maybe a 21, 22 win team. Doc doesn't even consider that aspect.

[chico]

Daugherty was the kid in school who would goad two kids into fighting, then go find the Principal to tell on them.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Uhh, I guess this is assuring. But, isn't that a rather critical piece of information to not be aware of??

I thought the same thing at first and thought it was kind of weird but I think his thoughts were it doesnt matter the amount of losses because of the wins that we have, he feels we have done enough and there isnt a number of losses that makes a team miss out.

[markchal]

He's ignoring that X could be a 19, 20 even maybe a 21, 22 win team. Doc doesn't even consider that aspect.

Given our recent tournament history, can you blame him? We don't perform well lately in preseason or postseason tournaments.

[goldiewilson]

I don't know if it has been said but the idiot Doc immediately assumes X loses at Creighton, then loses a game in the Big East tourney...meaning X is a 13 loss team...and thus should be a low seed or not in the tourney at all.
.


If X loses at Creighton and in the Big East tournament they would have 14 losses, as they have 12 losses as we speak.

I would be surprised if a 14 loss team would get in as an at large, unless they made it to the Big East Finals. Only a handful of teams have made it in with that many as an at large. They would also have a losing conference record and a bad record down the stretch, with bad losses to lb state, auburn, Creighton twice, and DePaul. No way is that resume dancing.
I think Creighton is the be all end all for X's season. Win and in, lose and probably NIT bound.

[Juice]

If X loses at Creighton and in the Big East tournament they would have 14 losses, as they have 12 losses as we speak.

I would be surprised if a 14 loss team would get in as an at large, unless they made it to the Big East Finals. Only a handful of teams have made it in with that many as an at large. They would also have a losing conference record and a bad record down the stretch, with bad losses to lb state, auburn, Creighton twice, and DePaul. No way is that resume dancing.
I think Creighton is the be all end all for X's season. Win and in, lose and probably NIT bound.

Everything you stated here is either inaccurate or overstated.

[Fireball]

And just a thought...Long Beach's season going into the tank has really hurt us. Until they beat Cal State Fullerton on Saturday, they had lost 5 straight games, turning a Top 100 win into a sub-100 loss...and not helping our RPI in the process.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Bubble Watch updated today:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

Xavier [18-12 (8-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 15] There's nothing to worry about for the Musketeers. Sure, from one perspective, Saturday's home loss at Villanova was a missed opportunity -- not only a chance to completely lock up their bid but also to boost their eventual seed ceiling another line or two. And yeah, a loss moved Xavier to 18-12 overall and 8-9 in the Big East, and a sub-.500 record in conference play at the end of the regular season is historically less-than-ideal for at-large consideration. Still, Saturday said more about Villanova (and how incredibly good it is) than anything about the Musketeers. If Chris Mack's team falls at Creighton on Saturday, then we'll have to reconsider. If it wins, its just about a lock.

[kyxu]

Bubble Watch updated today:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

Xavier [18-12 (8-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 15] There's nothing to worry about for the Musketeers. Sure, from one perspective, Saturday's home loss at Villanova was a missed opportunity -- not only a chance to completely lock up their bid but also to boost their eventual seed ceiling another line or two. And yeah, a loss moved Xavier to 18-12 overall and 8-9 in the Big East, and a sub-.500 record in conference play at the end of the regular season is historically less-than-ideal for at-large consideration. Still, Saturday said more about Villanova (and how incredibly good it is) than anything about the Musketeers. If Chris Mack's team falls at Creighton on Saturday, then we'll have to reconsider. If it wins, its just about a lock.

Nothing's really changed over the past two weeks. After the first St. John's loss heading into UC, it was said repeatedly that Xavier needed to go 3-2 in its final five games to feel safe. Those likely wins were at UC, against a short-handed Butler team, and at Creighton. At St. John's didn't seem so likely because they had just won on our home floor and they are not an ideal match-up for X, and Xavier simply can't compete with Villanova.

The loss at St. John's was a toss-up and huge opportunity missed, while Villanova was a second half bloodbath. Those two losses were enough to keep us all despondent and wipe out any good feelings after UC and Butler. But quite honestly, nothing has really changed. We still should beat Creighton, and our two prior losses don't make that any more or less likely to occur.

I am confident Xavier will be in the Tournament this year. I am not confident we will have much of a stay there, however.

[xubrew]

Due to Zags weak conference schedule they are just not ready to play in the Big Dance. Announcers going over this the other day on Sirius 91. Said that the last 5 years they have gone out on the first weekend

2010 West 8 seed beat FL St and lost to Syracuse
2011 Southeast 11 seed beat St Johns and lost to BYU
2012 East 7 seed beat W Va and lost to Ohio St
2013 West 1 seed beat Southern lost to Wich St
2014 West 8 seed beat Ok St and lost to AZ


Good resource for tournament history www.allbrackets.com

For starters, thanks for the link. I've never seen that site.

Secondly, Gonzaga pretty much played to their seed. The only exception was the loss to Wichita. Wichita advanced to the Final Four, and came closer to beating Louisville than any other team that Louisville faced. Wichita then went on to win every single game they played before losing on a missed last second shot to the national runners up.

Could it be that Gonzaga's loss to Wichita was more of a case of Wichita being better than we thought than it was of Gonzaga not being as good as we thought?? I'm not saying it's entirely that, but I think Wichita actually being a really good team had a lot more to do with why the Zags went out early than it did with the Zags being overrated.


Other than a 1 seed has NEVER lost a first round game and a 2 seed has lost a couple times the last few years. Its not a huge difference but it isnt zero difference either.

This is true, but I would argue that's because there is an enormous difference between a #15 seed and a #16 moreso than it being a difference between a #1 and a #2.

[D-West & PO-Z]

For starters, thanks for the link. I've never seen that site.

Secondly, Gonzaga pretty much played to their seed. The only exception was the loss to Wichita. Wichita advanced to the Final Four, and came closer to beating Louisville than any other team that Louisville faced. Wichita then went on to win every single game they played before losing on a missed last second shot to the national runners up.

Could it be that Gonzaga's loss to Wichita was more of a case of Wichita being better than we thought than it was of Gonzaga not being as good as we thought?? I'm not saying it's entirely that, but I think Wichita actually being a really good team had a lot more to do with why the Zags went out early than it did with the Zags being overrated.



This is true, but I would argue that's because there is an enormous difference between a #15 seed and a #16 moreso than it being a difference between a #1 and a #2.

That is the point though. You get a guaranteed victory as a 1 seed wheras a number 2 seed there is history (recent history) of losing in the first round.

[nasdadjr]

The only real positive we have going for us as far as bubble teams are concerned is that we are 7-6 against teams that Lunardi currently has in the field with some wins against higher seeds like Georgetown, providence, and butler. Really X just needs to win this next game and lock it up. Nothing like controlling your own destiny I'd much rather just win and get in rather than hope others lose.

[nasdadjr]

I really despise Gonzaga but look at your post. Every single year they did post up at least one year which to me proves at least they belonged there. Yeah they had some difficulty getting to the second weekend since the early part of this century but lets not act like they didn't deserve to be there.

[D-West & PO-Z]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Down to a 9 seed in Lunardi's latest bracketology updated today.

[kyxu]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Down to a 9 seed in Lunardi's latest bracketology updated today.

I would not be mad about a first round match-up with Ohio State. I would not be thrilled about what would await us the following game, however.

[Xville]

Our rpi keeps dipping...now at 45. I know hindsight is 20/20 but that Depaul and Auburn loss really hurt. Win those, and we wouldn't have to be talking about this bubble nonsense.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I would not be mad about a first round match-up with Ohio State. I would not be thrilled about what would await us the following game, however.

Agreed.

[Lamont Sanford]

I would not be mad about a first round match-up with Ohio State. I would not be thrilled about what would await us the following game, however.

Agreed. Would love to beat DNL and the Buckeyes in the first round. UK would completely annihilate us in the 2nd round though.

[Xville]

I would not be mad about a first round match-up with Ohio State. I would not be thrilled about what would await us the following game, however.

I know we should just be happy to get into the tournament with the up and down year we have had, but if there is any way we could avoid UK, that would be nice. I will say Deangelo Russell for O State is a freaking stud, they just don't have anything else.

[danaandvictory]

If X got a 9 seed and beat Ohio State, that would be a very satisfying end of season for me, even if Kentucky beat us by 40.

[markchal]

If X got a 9 seed and beat Ohio State, that would be a very satisfying end of season for me, even if Kentucky beat us by 40.

Totally agree with this. Give me one tournament win, and I don't care who we face in the second, just that one would be a good sign things are heading back in the right direction.

[Caveat]

I would not be mad about a first round match-up with Ohio State. I would not be thrilled about what would await us the following game, however.

Anything that avoids a trip to that truck stop up north for the play-in game would be a gift, at this point.

[muskieindent]

Our rpi keeps dipping...now at 45. I know hindsight is 20/20 but that Depaul and Auburn loss really hurt. Win those, and we wouldn't have to be talking about this bubble nonsense.
And the home loss to Creighton.

[mid major]

Anything that avoids a trip to that truck stop up north for the play-in game would be a gift, at this point.

Agreed. I went up there last year in the "play in" game and it totally sucked balls. Sweater nation was in full unison rooting against us which further illustrates how crummy the existence of daytonites truly is.

[letskeepitreal]

I hope Joe Lunardi is right that we are in but feel we've got to at least beat Creighton and better yet win one at the Big East Tournament. If we lose the next two games, I don't know how it would be possible to be in the dance going 18-14. Makes not sense but after the top 8 or so, there seems to be a lot of parity/mediocre teams this year so maybe we would have a shot at the dance but I wouldn't count on it.

[xubrew]

Our rpi keeps dipping...now at 45. I know hindsight is 20/20 but that Depaul and Auburn loss really hurt. Win those, and we wouldn't have to be talking about this bubble nonsense.

In this case, I think the foresight was also 20/20. Those are haunting losses, and I think everyone knew at the time that they would be.

[Masterofreality]

Uh, yeah. We damn well better win Saturday.....or else we're dropping into the 50's....and out.

[JTG]

Anything that avoids a trip to that truck stop up north for the play-in game would be a gift, at this point.

The play in, for us in particular, is almost worse than not getting in at all. It's a house of horrors for us and everyone there hates us. Its like going to the prom with your cousin and losing the play-in is like having her puke on you.

[LA Muskie]

Let's not get carried away. I'd MUCH rather have to play in the play-in game than not get selected at all. It's really not even close.

[mid major]

Uh, yeah. We damn well better win Saturday.....or else we're dropping into the 50's....and out.

I'd like to think this team is totally aware of this. Sometimes it seems like they're in la la land and don't see how imperative this game is. We have to win this game.

[xu82]

It's strange how sometimes we know how urgent things are, but we don't act/play accordingly. Having said that, it was more of an early season thing than a late season thing, but I still never know what to expect... I'm nervous. But hopeful.

[Xville]

Newest Bubble watch is out

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

nothing changed with Xavier but the Johnnies are now a lock. Crazy to even say this because Lavin is still their coach, but that is a team that could make some noise in the tournament. They are a little thin in the front court, but they have the senior leadership and the great guard play that usually serves well in the tourney. With a decent draw, I could see them being around the second weekend.

[Milhouse]

Newest Bubble watch is out

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

nothing changed with Xavier but the Johnnies are now a lock. Crazy to even say this because Lavin is still their coach, but that is a team that could make some noise in the tournament. They are a little thin in the front court, but they have the senior leadership and the great guard play that usually serves well in the tourney. With a decent draw, I could see them being around the second weekend.

absolutely. Sir Dominic Pointer is not a kid I want to face in the tournament.

[Xavier]

Perhaps. Too inconsistent for me to put them there. A team that can rebound well should be fine against them, IMO.

[paulxu]

RPI up to 38 with Creighton win.

[Porkopolis]

RPI up to 38 with Creighton win.

This one was huge. I'm having trouble remembering a season finale with more on the line. Time to play for seeding now.

[Xville]

Illinois state beats Wichita st. Bubble teams rooting hard for n. Iowa

[THRILLHOUSE]

This one was huge. I'm having trouble remembering a season finale with more on the line. Time to play for seeding now.

Yep. I'm happy/relieved that I don't have to pay close attention to the Bubble Watch thread anymore.

[kyxu]

Dayton is about to lose to a horrendous LaSalle team, but they are a "lock" somehow after beating no one this season

[OTRMUSKIE]

I say they could find themselves in the play in game if they lose first game. He'll maybe even left out. They hovering the bust line on dance card

[OTRMUSKIE]

Espn doesn't have Xavier as a lock yet which scares me to death and it was just updated to,include the win. A loss to Butler could be the dagger. Someone console me please.

[mid major]

Dance card is normally right on the money and Priders up north are shitting bricks.

[XMuskieFTW]

Espn doesn't have Xavier as a lock yet which scares me to death and it was just updated to,include the win. A loss to Butler could be the dagger. Someone console me please.

ESPN's bracket analysis is a joke. It also had us dropping from an 8 to 10 seed during the week with only one team winning who jumped us. And lunardi said we were a lock even if we lost today so don't listen to anything they say. Listen to me. We are in.

[OTRMUSKIE]

ESPN's bracket analysis is a joke. It also had us dropping from an 8 to 10 seed during the week with only one team winning who jumped us. And lunardi said we were a lock even if we lost today so don't listen to anything they say. Listen to me. We are in.

Sweet I will listen to you. Dance card might have UD out tomorrow. They were only 2 above the bust line Friday.

[kyxu]

Sweet I will listen to you. Dance card might have UD out tomorrow. They were only 2 above the bust line Friday.

Xavier is safely in, as is Dayton. Wouldn't be surprised if the committee paired the two in the 8/9 game.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I want the 8/9 game in Louisville against UK in 2nd rd. I mean let's be the team to beat UK or the first to lose by 150. Either way we are going down in history.

[danaandvictory]

Bubble Watch's Xavier blurb today is absolutely asinine.

Basically, his point is that X isn't a lock because they could suffer a "bad loss" in the BET. To which I reply, to whom? Either they lose to a Top 20 Butler team, or they beat a top 20 Butler team and then lose to either Georgetown (not a bad loss) or Seton Hall (maybe a bad loss, but they also just beat Butler).

Whadda maroon.

[X-band '01]

Creighton would need to win twice for a bad loss to even be remotely possible for Xavier. Ain't happening.

[bobbiemcgee]

Dance card is normally right on the money and Priders up north are shitting bricks.

Davidson (sic) won the A-10 title. They will get in b4 the flyers. Dayton should be happy Temple, Butler and X left or they would have been 6th again.

[chico]

Bracket matrix had us as a 9 before today's game. Dayton is currently an 8 but they'll tumble after today. Even with a loss to Butler can't see us falling past an 11 so I have a pretty good feeling we'll avoid playing in Dayton.

[bobbiemcgee]

Murray State loses by 1 in a wild , crazy finish. They won 25 straight but will not be dancing.

[Xfan5667]

hahahhahahah love seeing all these fake dayton fans saying that they will have an automatic bid in the tourney???? wow....... x gets in for sure the rpi means a lot in my opinion

[paulxu]

RPI up to 38 with Creighton win.

One of you stat gurus explain to me how we have now dropped back to 41.

[Juice]

One of you stat gurus explain to me how we have now dropped back to 41.

Murray State's loss?

[Wheelhouse]

Bubble Watch's Xavier blurb today is absolutely asinine.

Basically, his point is that X isn't a lock because they could suffer a "bad loss" in the BET. To which I reply, to whom? Either they lose to a Top 20 Butler team, or they beat a top 20 Butler team and then lose to either Georgetown (not a bad loss) or Seton Hall (maybe a bad loss, but they also just beat Butler).

Whadda maroon.

I saw this, too. Completely ignorant.

[DC Muskie]

Bubble Watch's Xavier blurb today is absolutely asinine.

Basically, his point is that X isn't a lock because they could suffer a "bad loss" in the BET. To which I reply, to whom? Either they lose to a Top 20 Butler team, or they beat a top 20 Butler team and then lose to either Georgetown (not a bad loss) or Seton Hall (maybe a bad loss, but they also just beat Butler).

Whadda maroon.

What would be considered a bad loss at this point?

[waggy]

14 will be a bad loss.

[paulxu]

Back to 38. Whatever.

[xubrew]

Bubble Watch's Xavier blurb today is absolutely asinine.

Basically, his point is that X isn't a lock because they could suffer a "bad loss" in the BET. To which I reply, to whom? Either they lose to a Top 20 Butler team, or they beat a top 20 Butler team and then lose to either Georgetown (not a bad loss) or Seton Hall (maybe a bad loss, but they also just beat Butler).

Whadda maroon.

Weren't we a lock earlier in the week??

That guy changes his mind a lot.

[GoMuskies]

BYU's putting in quite the "meh" performance for a team on the brink. All they have to do is beat Santa Clara and Portland on a neutral court to get into the NCAA Tournament. Not too tall an order, but they're not exactly attacking that task with a vigor.

[X-man]

Bubble Watch's Xavier blurb today is absolutely asinine.

Basically, his point is that X isn't a lock because they could suffer a "bad loss" in the BET. To which I reply, to whom? Either they lose to a Top 20 Butler team, or they beat a top 20 Butler team and then lose to either Georgetown (not a bad loss) or Seton Hall (maybe a bad loss, but they also just beat Butler).

Whadda maroon.

He's backed off that stupid comment after acknowledging that a Xavier fan had pointed out how moronic his statement was. Sad commentary on how careful ESPN's "experts" are in their "analysis". Here's his lame "analysis" and acknowledgement:

"What if Dee Davis misses his free throws? Xavier didn't have to find out. Instead, Davis sank both of his free throws with four seconds to play, and the Musketeers escaped Creighton with a 74-73 win. A loss would have been less than ideal: The Bluejays already knocked off Xavier at the Cintas Center back on Feb. 4, and a sweep would have added another sub-100 loss to a resume with defeats to Long Beach State, Auburn and DePaul already. It would also have left Xavier at 8-10 in the Big East and just 18-13 overall -- hardly stellar stuff, even against a top-15 schedule. Instead, there's no reason to downgrade Xavier. Now that the Big East tournament schedule is set, and Xavier's first-round draw is a matchup with Butler, Xavier is awfully close to a lock. (Thanks to our XU-oriented readers for the heads up here.) We'll hold off in case the bubble shrinks in the coming days, but there's little reason to worry."

Notice that he still can't bring himself to put Xavier in the "lock" category quite yet. That's ESPN for ya.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I feel totally better now! A few teams on here that I won't mention probably are not feeling too good. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Masterofreality]

I feel totally better now! A few teams on here that I won't mention probably are not feeling too good. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Interesting that udump is shown as just out. A10 guy Lunardi would, of course, count them in. They have 2 opportunities for a bad loss in the A10 Tournament. A) Vs St. Bonnie (RPI 117) or St. Joes (RPI 172), or Rhodee (RPI 71)/ GW (RPI 81). After their recent losses at LaSuck and Dookcane, anything is possible.

[D-West & PO-Z]

XU's RPI resume:

4 top 25 wins
6 top 50 wins (SFA jumped into the top 50)
9 top 100 wins

2 RPI losses 101-150
2 sub 150 losses.

[XUFan09]

XU's RPI resume:

4 top 25 wins
6 top 50 wins (SFA jumped into the top 50)
9 top 100 wins

2 RPI losses 101-150
2 sub 150 losses.

Long Beach State is currently at 101. Hopefully they win a couple games in the conference tournament to bump up into the top 100.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Long Beach State is currently at 101. Hopefully they win a couple games in the conference tournament to bump up into the top 100.

Yeah that would be great. Our resume looks pretty dang good, especially for a team that was near the bubble, those 4 sub 100 losses dont look great but if LBSU gets to 100 or better that would be great. Give us an extra top 100 win and one less sub 100 loss.

[Masterofreality]

233rd in 3 point percentage defense.

THAT has GOT to change.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I dont understand how Bubble Watch locks up NC St but not XU.

XU has 2 more top 25 wins, 2 more top 50 wins, same top 100 wins, a better RPI. We do have 2 more sub 100 losses but you would think at worst that cancels out with our 2 more top 25 wins. Seems we should both be locked up.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Mich St is 0-6 vs the top 25 and has only 2 top 50 wins. 8-8 vs top 100. Lock? I guess 12-6 is a pretty good conference record in Big10.

[xubrew]

I dont understand how Bubble Watch locks up NC St but not XU.

XU has 2 more top 25 wins, 2 more top 50 wins, same top 100 wins, a better RPI. We do have 2 more sub 100 losses but you would think at worst that cancels out with our 2 more top 25 wins. Seems we should both be locked up.

When you're talking about the top FIFTY, you're talking about a range of teams that goes from #1 seeds, to teams that will be in the NIT. You have to look at the individual wins because not all top fifty wins are even close to being created equal. Winning at Louisville and at North Carolina are probably better than any of Xavier's top fifty wins. And, NC State has fewer losses to teams outside the top 100.

[UCGRAD4X]

233rd in 3 point percentage defense.

THAT has GOT to change.

Amen!


Job 1 - IMHO.

[Masterofreality]

You know what? Oh-ho-ho State is getting boat raced at home today to Wisconsin. They have an absolutely horrible strength of schedule at OOC 212 and expected to be 67 overall. Other than Maryland, they have beaten NOBODY. With the loss today they have dropped to 42 in the RPI. When do they get scrutinized?

Before the game today:
45 Ohio St. 2.7111 99.66% 37
46 BYU 1.9875 97.66% 39
47 Miami FL 1.6031 94.55% 54
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***

If that was us, we'd be freaking out. I would suggest that Ohio State win a game of substance in the Big 10 Tournament.

[xu82]

233rd in 3 point percentage defense.

THAT has GOT to change.

That's awful and I'm sure it will change, I just hope it's in the right direction!

[xubrew]

Ohio State has been in the rankings all year despite having not looked anything close to a top 25 team at any point. On paper, they don't look good. If you're going off the "eye test," they look even worse. All year long I've been wondering why the supposed experts seem to like them so much.

[bleedXblue]

Amen!


Job 1 - IMHO.

When you have smaller guards who are less than ideally athletic, you CANT guard the perimeter well. Nothing is changing this year. Nothing.

[Masterofreality]

When you have smaller guards who are less than ideally athletic, you CANT guard the perimeter well. Nothing is changing this year. Nothing.

If a defender isn't within 10 feet of a guy when he shoots it, it makes no difference how tall they are. #233

[bleedXblue]

If a defender isn't within 10 feet of a guy when he shoots it, it makes no difference how tall they are. #233

Do you think all of sudden Mack's teams can't guard the 3? He hasn't changed his "scheme" all that much. Or is it the fact that this unit lacks obvious athleticism and its two starting guards are at best 5'10' and 6'1'?

[paulxu]

When you're talking about the top FIFTY, you're talking about a range of teams that goes from #1 seeds, to teams that will be in the NIT. You have to look at the individual wins because not all top fifty wins are even close to being created equal. Winning at Louisville and at North Carolina are probably better than any of Xavier's top fifty wins. And, NC State has fewer losses to teams outside the top 100.

Do you think the committee looks at where inside the top 50 a win is? Is it #26 or #49?

Or do they just say: 2 top 25 wins and 2 top 50 wins, compared to the other team?

[Masterofreality]

Do you think all of sudden Mack's teams can't guard the 3? He hasn't changed his "scheme" all that much. Or is it the fact that this unit lacks obvious athleticism and its two starting guards are at best 5'10' and 6'1'?

And that is exactly the point. His "scheme" does not fit these players, yet they still stubbornly use it. #233
The starting lineup for most of the year is not "small". Dee 5:11, Remy 6:5, Trevon 6:6, Farr 6:10. Stain 6:10. This rating at #233 didn't just happen in the last 5 games.

By the way, Mark Lyons was barely 6:0 and Tu was "allegedly" 6:0, but not really.

[GoMuskies]

Do you think the committee looks at where inside the top 50 a win is? Is it #26 or #49?

Or do they just say: 2 top 25 wins and 2 top 50 wins, compared to the other team?

Let's hope they look at it a little closer than just categorizing everything as top 50, 51-100, etc. Otherwise, they're completely incompetent.

[bleedXblue]

And that is exactly the point. His "scheme" does not fit these players, yet they still stubbornly use it. #233
The starting lineup for most of the year is not "small". Dee 5:11, Remy 6:5, Trevon 6:6, Farr 6:10. Stain 6:10. This rating at #233 didn't just happen in the last 5 games.

By the way, Mark Lyons was barely 6:0 and Tu was "allegedly" 6:0, but not really.

Issue is a coach that doesn't get it and a group of players he's brought in that aren't athletic enough across the board. There is no easy fix.

[Masterofreality]

Issue is a coach that doesn't get it and a group of players he's brought in that aren't athletic enough across the board. There is no easy fix.

Actually there are options, but apparently there is no desire to install at this late date. I've said it in other areas of this board. They knew what they had as players in October, but did nothing to change the "system" early. Just blame that the players were "allergic to defense" and criticizing Remy Abel, our best lock down defender, as a poor "system" defender. Remy only played 17 minutes in the 2nd Long Beach State game, yet the LBSU guards scored 54 out of their 73 points,. Remy Abell plays 17 minutes? Yeah.

I'll say again. I hope this staff takes the summer to rethink this "system". If not, get ready for the same for a long time. #233

[xubrew]

Do you think the committee looks at where inside the top 50 a win is? Is it #26 or #49?

Or do they just say: 2 top 25 wins and 2 top 50 wins, compared to the other team?

The former. All day long. Furthermore, they look at a lot more than whether it was 26th or 49th. If the 26th team has a losing record on the road and you beat them at home, and the 49th team only has one or two home losses and you beat them on the road, the win over #49 will be seen as being better.

They have weekly conference calls where they give reports on the three conferences they're in charge of monitoring. I'm sure they say things like "this team is good. This team isn't. This team is great at home, but lousy on the road. This team has an injured player and they're not as good without him, so we need to weigh that in if someone beats them."

For instance, Oregon State isn't even in the RPI top 100, but they only lost two games at home, and played a lot of good teams at home. The two teams that beat them will probably get a lot of credit because the person who monitors the Pac Twelve will know that, even though those wins aren't top 100 wins.

Bracketologists sit down and count up top fifty wins, top 100 wins, and bad losses. The committee does a ton more than that. That's why so many who do projections were so far off on a lot of teams a year ago, particularly the A10 teams.

[paulxu]

It would be really strange if goofball Lunardi was right and we played Davidson and then Duke in Charlotte.
I guess you guys would rather travel to Louisville, but I can do the Charlotte thing.

[Masterofreality]

Dance Card Updated through Sunday.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Oh-ho-ho State was put into the dump for a First Round game? I guess Beaknose would not really be in the Tournament then.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Lamont Sanford]

Actually there are options, but apparently there is no desire to install at this late date. I've said it in other areas of this board. They knew what they had as players in October, but did nothing to change the "system" early. Just blame that the players were "allergic to defense" and criticizing Remy Abel, our best lock down defender, as a poor "system" defender. Remy only played 17 minutes in the 2nd Long Beach State game, yet the LBSU guards scored 54 out of their 73 points,. Remy Abell plays 17 minutes? Yeah.

I'll say again. I hope this staff takes the summer to rethink this "system". If not, get ready for the same for a long time. #233

What he said.

[D-West & PO-Z]

No update for XU in bubble watch out today:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[drudy23]

Basically, it's in the hands of the bid stealers. Let's hope the next week doesn't go apesh*t across the country.

[D-West & PO-Z]

There is probably at least 10 teams (depending on if any of those teams win their tourney) that would have bids stolen before XU. I think we are safely in.

[XMuskieFTW]

Let's just win Thursday to make sure.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Let's just win Thursday to make sure.

Yeah I would love a win Thursday.

[D-West & PO-Z]

And Friday and Saturday

[Xville]

a win Thursday would lock us in for sure though I think we are already in...and it would take us out of the running for a trip to the sewage dump which would really be nice.

[X-Fan]

And Friday and Saturday
This.

[xubrew]

Other than the American, there aren't any likely bid stealers. There just aren't any conferences out there where one team is in a position to get an at-large, but no one else is. Unless teams like Vanderbilt and Washington State end up winning conference tournaments, there won't be any bid stealers.

[xuwin]

Win out and leave no doubt.

[drudy23]

Other than the American, there aren't any likely bid stealers. There just aren't any conferences out there where one team is in a position to get an at-large, but no one else is. Unless teams like Vanderbilt and Washington State end up winning conference tournaments, there won't be any bid stealers.

Huh? ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, A10, SEC, Big East...I'm sure there's others.

[GoMuskies]

Huh? ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, A10, SEC, Big East...I'm sure there's others.

I can think of one bid stealer in a league like that....EVER. It was the Georgia team we beat in D.C.

[Masterofreality]

No update for XU in bubble watch out today:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

This guy Brennan is so far off it's not even funny. How he can have udump as a lock when they finished 3rd in the league and don't have Davidson in that spot after winning the league is laughable. Also, again, how do the Luckeyes get a pass here?

[xubrew]

Huh? ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, A10, SEC, Big East...I'm sure there's others.

Just to reiterate, I said LIKELY bid stealer.

In the recent past, there were usually three or four conferences that had one team who was in solid position to make the field whether they won the conference tournament or not, and eight or nine teams that were long shots for the NIT. That increased the chances of a team stealing a bid.

The ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big East, etc, have about five or six different teams that could win the tournament and not steal a bid because they're going to make the tournament regardless. I don't consider those to be "LIKELY" bid stealing leagues.

[DC Muskie]

UC is a lock? Okay.

[waggy]

The bubble is a puddle.

[Xville]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Not the worst of places to be. I think Davidson is actually a pretty darn good team, but this region is in my opinion the weakest by far so I wouldn't mind being in it even if it is in Duke's backyard. It is the weakest #1, #2, #3 and #4 seeds in my opinion.

[pimpinthebox]

Just to reiterate, I said LIKELY bid stealer.

In the recent past, there were usually three or four conferences that had one team who was in solid position to make the field whether they won the conference tournament or not, and eight or nine teams that were long shots for the NIT. That increased the chances of a team stealing a bid.

The ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big East, etc, have about five or six different teams that could win the tournament and not steal a bid because they're going to make the tournament regardless. I don't consider those to be "LIKELY" bid stealing leagues.

Man, hate to argue with you twice in the same day, Brew, but GW and UConn are two teams that can absolutely make runs in their respective tourneys. Are they "likely" bid stealers? Maybe not, but the bubble dwellers need to be on the lookout.

[waggy]

What happened to GW anyway? They were 16-4 and then started losing. Did they lose a player?

[THRILLHOUSE]

What happened to GW anyway? They were 16-4 and then started losing. Did they lose a player?

Not sure if they lost anyone, but looks like typical GW. Feasted on cupcakes (other than their win vs Wichita State). 10 of their wins are vs teams with an RPI of 200+.

[waggy]

VCU beat them pretty bad. Maybe that got in their heads.

[xubrew]

Other than the American, there aren't any likely bid stealers. There just aren't any conferences out there where one team is in a position to get an at-large, but no one else is. Unless teams like Vanderbilt and Washington State end up winning conference tournaments, there won't be any bid stealers.


Man, hate to argue with you twice in the same day, Brew, but GW and UConn are two teams that can absolutely make runs in their respective tourneys. Are they "likely" bid stealers? Maybe not, but the bubble dwellers need to be on the lookout.

I agree on UConn. Not so much on GW, although they did look a lot better in their last two games. They went through a stretch where they rewrote the book on suck prior to that, though.

[drudy23]

Okafor would annihilate us.

[mid major]

Okafor would annihilate us.

Not if he gets kneed in the nads.

[goldiewilson]

This guy Brennan is so far off it's not even funny. How he can have udump as a lock when they finished 3rd in the league and don't have Davidson in that spot after winning the league is laughable. Also, again, how do the Luckeyes get a pass here?


I agree Davidson should be a lock, and in fact UD should probably be in the "should be in" category and not a lock.

Not to nit pick, but UD finished with the 2nd seed in the A-10 tourney, not 3rd place like you indicated.

[GoMuskies]

BYU is in.

[D-West & PO-Z]

BYU is in.

I dont think its a done deal but they avoided a bad loss and now have nothing to lose with only Gonzaga left. It is really though to look at their resume and see only 1 top 50 wins (a great one however) and only 3 additional top 100 wins and then also see them being swept by Pepperdine and lose to San Diego. They did play 4 good out of conference games but they lost 3 of them, their best win being a Stanford team who isnt in the tournament.

I think they probably are on the right side right now but I wouldnt be surprised at all if they dont get in.

[Masterofreality]

Well, after everything, we are better off than we were at this time last year. As it turned out, Xavier HAD to beat Marquette in the first Big East Tournament game to even warrant selection for a game at the dump. This year we're comfortably in, but I sure would like to beat Butler.

[XU 87]

I dont think its a done deal but they avoided a bad loss and now have nothing to lose with only Gonzaga left. It is really though to look at their resume and see only 1 top 50 wins (a great one however) and only 3 additional top 100 wins and then also see them being swept by Pepperdine and lose to San Diego. They did play 4 good out of conference games but they lost 3 of them, their best win being a Stanford team who isnt in the tournament.

I think they probably are on the right side right now but I wouldnt be surprised at all if they dont get in.

Did anyone else listen to the commentators on ESPN say that BYU should be in the NCAA because "they play great offense" and "they are a team people would like to watch." Is that the new criteria- "You're in because you're fun to watch."?

[kyxu]

Did anyone else listen to the commentators on ESPN say that BYU should be in the NCAA because "they play great offense" and "they are a team people would like to watch." Is that the new criteria- "You're in because you're fun to watch."?

This is the same clan of knuckle-draggers who claim that if there is any "justice" in the selection process, Murray State should get an at-large bid.

[Xville]

Did anyone else listen to the commentators on ESPN say that BYU should be in the NCAA because "they play great offense" and "they are a team people would like to watch." Is that the new criteria- "You're in because you're fun to watch."?

oh you didn't hear? That's embarrassing. Its their new made up index that they use to make themselves try and look relevant. You know...just like the BPI. This one is the FPI...Fun percentage Index.

[GoMuskies]

I hope BYU gets in because they are fun to watch. Ditto Murray State. Luckily, they don't give me a vote.

[RealDeal]

Keep kentucky out, blowouts are no fun to watch.

[drudy23]

If we lose Thursday, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see us in Dayton. Maybe a little surprised, but not completely.

[kellernr]

Man, hate to argue with you twice in the same day, Brew, but GW and UConn are two teams that can absolutely make runs in their respective tourneys. Are they "likely" bid stealers? Maybe not, but the bubble dwellers need to be on the lookout.


If UConn makes a run and wins the aac tourney then you can cross of temple and/or Tulsa as at larges. The aac will get 3 teams unless it ends up with temple/UConn or tulsa/UConn in the finals. Then it would be smu and Cincy plus the 2 in the conference finals.

[D-West & PO-Z]

If we lose Thursday, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see us in Dayton. Maybe a little surprised, but not completely.

I would be shocked. Look at a team like BYU who is in the last four in group. Their resume doesnt even come close to ours.

[THRILLHOUSE]

If UConn makes a run and wins the aac tourney then you can cross of temple and/or Tulsa as at larges. The aac will get 3 teams unless it ends up with temple/UConn or tulsa/UConn in the finals. Then it would be smu and Cincy plus the 2 in the conference finals.

UConn has to win the AAC tourney to get in, they aren't even close to the bubble. So they would not get in as at-large even if they made the Finals.

[XU 87]

I would be shocked. Look at a team like BYU who is in the last four in group. Their resume doesnt even come close to ours.

You are forgetting how much fun BYU is to watch. According to the guys on ESPN, that alone should get them in and give them a first round bye.

[D-West & PO-Z]

You are forgetting how much fun BYU is to watch. According to the guys on ESPN, that alone should get them in and give them a first round bye.

I did forget to add the fun factor into their resume. That is good for at least a seed or two.

[DC Muskie]

UVA is screwed then, because they are BOR-RING!

[drudy23]

There's a chance we go into Selection Sunday at 19-13...I could see us in Dayton with that. Like I said, I'd be surprised based on our quality wins and conference strength, but not shocked.

[kellernr]

UConn has to win the AAC tourney to get in, they aren't even close to the bubble. So they would not get in as at-large even if they made the Finals.

What I meant was that if UConn beats Temple/Tulsa for the title then the AAC would get 4 teams in.

UConn - Auto
uc - At Large
SMU - At Large
Temple/Tulsa - At Large (only 1 of these 2 will get in)

[THRILLHOUSE]

What I meant was that if UConn beats Temple/Tulsa for the title then the AAC would get 4 teams in.

UConn - Auto
uc - At Large
SMU - At Large
Temple/Tulsa - At Large (only 1 of these 2 will get in)

gotcha, thought you were saying both AAC's finalists would get in no matter the outcome. I think if UConn wins the AAC then Temple and Tulsa's bubble bursts, but wouldn't be a complete shock if one of them would still make it.

[Masterofreality]

gotcha, thought you were saying both AAC's finalists would get in no matter the outcome. I think if UConn wins the AAC then Temple and Tulsa's bubble bursts, but wouldn't be a complete shock if one of them would still make it.

This would be the exact same scenario that Rhode Island did to Xavier in the A-10 tournament in the late 90's when Lamar Odom made a ridiculous 3. They got Otto Bid, we got NIT. Let's hope Seton Hall doesn't all of a sudden figure it out.

[drudy23]

This would be the exact same scenario that Rhode Island did to Xavier in the A-10 tournament in the late 90's when Lamar Odom made a ridiculous 3. They got Otto Bid, we got NIT. Let's hope Seton Hall doesn't all of a sudden figure it out.

I hate when people bring this up...we weren't making it either way. Even the committee said we weren't even on the board for discussion.

[Masterofreality]

I hate when people bring this up...we weren't making it either way. Even the committee said we weren't even on the board for discussion.

Wrong, and as always I back up my assertion with facts.

Unfortunately I can't pull up the RPI from 1998-1999 anywhere from the web, but I do have a copy of the Sagarins on March 8, 1999- the morning after Selection Sunday- the latest data that the Committee could have used. Xavier was 44th. Other schools that received At Large Bids, and some were controversial, were as follows and they are shown on the sheet.

-Oklahoma State- 41
-Tulsa- 47
-Oklahoma- 48
-Texas- 53
-UAB- 57 (That many screamed about that they took Xavier's slot). Lost in Round 1 by 14.
-Evansville- 74
-New Mexico- 84 (VERY controversial)

Check the picture. #Facts
1661

[drudy23]

The head of the committee was asked specifically about Xavier (I can't remember if it was during the post-selection spot or a separate show), and he flat out said, "Xavier wasn't even on the board for consideration" when discussing the final teams to get in. We weren't getting in. You can post all of the facts you want (which really are stats, and factually prove nothing about Xavier)...he said it.

And no, I'm not digging up the clip.

[LA Muskie]

You are forgetting how much fun BYU is to watch. According to the guys on ESPN, that alone should get them in and give them a first round bye.
If they are so fun to watch, wouldn't we want them playing as many games as possible (and hence in the First Four)?

[LA Muskie]

Wrong, and as always I back up my assertion with facts.

Unfortunately I can't pull up the RPI from 1998-1999 anywhere from the web, but I do have a copy of the Sagarins on March 8, 1999- the morning after Selection Sunday- the latest data that the Committee could have used. Xavier was 44th. Other schools that received At Large Bids, and some were controversial, were as follows and they are shown on the sheet.

-Oklahoma State- 41
-Tulsa- 47
-Oklahoma- 48
-Texas- 53
-UAB- 57 (That many screamed about that they took Xavier's slot). Lost in Round 1 by 14.
-Evansville- 74
-New Mexico- 84 (VERY controversial)

Check the picture. #Facts
1661
MOR, according to Drudy the Committee said we weren't even on the board. Now I have no idea if that's true or not. But assuming for the sake of argument that it is true (and I note you did not deny it), then how would any of those facts matter?

[Masterofreality]

The head of the committee was asked specifically about Xavier (I can't remember if it was during the post-selection spot or a separate show), and he flat out said, "Xavier wasn't even on the board for consideration" when discussing the final teams to get in. We weren't getting in. You can post all of the facts you want (which really are stats, and factually prove nothing about Xavier)...he said it.

And no, I'm not digging up the clip.


MOR, according to Drudy the Committee said we weren't even on the board. Now I have no idea if that's true or not. But assuming for the sake of argument that it is true (and I note you did not deny it), then how would any of those facts matter?

I backed up my argument with verified documents. Drudy "claims" that "the head of the committee" who he can't even name made a verbal quote that is not verifiable-at least to this point. You are a lawyer, LA. That constitutes hearsay and is inadmissible. It is also 16 years old at this point. I'm sure there are never "misrememberings" by anyone over 16 year old issues. How can I deny it, when I don't even know it is real? Is that how you handle your court cases?

Show me a clip, or a published quote and I'll reconsider, but right now, there is nothing