just an observation

[nasdadjr]

Yes I am not happy with x on the road but combing through the scores does anyone win on the road? Just today Iowa at Purdue michigan state at nebraska Iowa state and so on all lost. It just seems noone in college basketball except UK can win a road game. Thoughts?

[LA Muskie]

There are only 3 BE teams without a road win. Us. St. John's. And Creighton (0-7 overall). Yes it's tough to win on the road. But it's not unheard of. Good teams find a way to win a few.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Hell Dayton has a few I Believe and they have no one over 6'6. Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

[smileyy]

Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

I don't know what this means. If Xavier, a few years ago, played most of the teams in the present Big East, we'd still expect them to win.

[DC Muskie]

Yes I am not happy with x on the road but combing through the scores does anyone win on the road? Just today Iowa at Purdue michigan state at nebraska Iowa state and so on all lost. It just seems noone in college basketball except UK can win a road game. Thoughts?

We are trending right now to have fewer roads wins than we did last season.



Hell Dayton has a few I Believe and they have no one over 6'6. Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

The best player in the BE signed to play with Dayton before Gregory left to ruin Georgia Tech. He should be considered A10 talent I guess. Whatever that means.

[DC Muskie]

Also, the kid who starts at point for the #7 ranked team, leads the PAC 12 in assists. He also averages the same amount points per game as our point guard.

He also began his career in the A10 and at Duquesne at that.

#A10talent

[RealDeal]

Hell Dayton has a few I Believe and they have no one over 6'6. Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

OTR why do you talk about Dayton in every post? Curious.

[kyxu]

There are only 3 BE teams without a road win. Us. St. John's. And Creighton (0-7 overall). Yes it's tough to win on the road. But it's not unheard of. Good teams find a way to win a few.

St. John's won at Providence. Marquette is the third team without a BE road win. But whatever, the point remains.

[DART87]

There are only 3 BE teams without a road win. Us. St. John's. And Creighton (0-7 overall). Yes it's tough to win on the road. But it's not unheard of. Good teams find a way to win a few.

Another Observation:

There are only 2 BE teams without a home loss.

Edit: Should be 3...I missed Georgetown.

[kyxu]

Hell Dayton has a few I Believe and they have no one over 6'6. Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

Dayton has three road wins, the best of which was against St. Bonaventure (RPI #160).

[paulxu]

We play 9 teams in conference, H/H.
4 of them are top 20 RPI.
2 of them are top 50 RPI
The other 3 are top 150.

[LA Muskie]

St. John's won at Providence. Marquette is the third team without a BE road win. But whatever, the point remains.

You're right. My bad. That's what I get for posting after a night of drinking.

[xubrew]

Good observation.

The home team wins over 70 percent of the time. It's a low percentage of teams that end up winning half or more of their true road games.

But, look at the NCAA Tournament. There are 351 teams, and only about 45 of them are in a position to make the NCAA Tournament without the automatic bid. That's a low percentage of teams. The ones that are in that situation, win on the road. I think it's been PAINFULLY obvious over the years, especially the last two years, that the individuals on this committee value road wins over NIT teams MORE than they value home wins against NCAA Tournament teams, and even ranked teams. Going out on the road and beating average teams is as good or better than beating good teams at home. Simple as that.

The few teams that make the field are normally the same few teams that win half or more of their road games. That's why the Atlantic Ten got six teams in last year, and nearly all of them were seeded better than what most were expecting.

[pimpinthebox]

Thoughts?

My thought is that they better win at least two on the road before the season is up or they won't make the tournament - which I think we can all agree is the goal for this team this season. The lone "good" road win at Missouri ain't gonna cut it in the eyes of the committee. I don't think even a win at home over a highly ranked Nova team in late Feb will put them over the top. It's difficult to make an argument for them any other way. Their only other recourse is if they make a significant run at MSG in the BE Tourney - and we all know how well X has played in conference (and holiday) tourneys of late.

[bobbiemcgee]

Dayton has three road wins, the best of which was against St. Bonaventure (RPI #160).

They lost by 17 to Davidson, a pre-season #12 pick in the A-10, and Davidson's best player was out.

[xu82]

We play 9 teams in conference, H/H.
4 of them are top 20 RPI.
2 of them are top 50 RPI
The other 3 are top 150.

It's not the A10 anymore, where you get about a half dozen teams outside the top 150 in RPI.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

After these two road games which could both go either way, there is a possibility of us winning out the rest of the year. It might not be that likely, but I can see it. Our toughest road games will be St. Johns who has been struggling or UC and we usually come out really pumped up for that game. We could lose here against Nova, but I really hope we win it.

[xubrew]

We play 9 teams in conference, H/H.
4 of them are top 20 RPI.
2 of them are top 50 RPI
The other 3 are top 150.

...and we better beat a few of them on the road.

[XU 87]

My thought is that they better win at least two on the road before the season is up or they won't make the tournament - which I think we can all agree is the goal for this team this season. The lone "good" road win at Missouri ain't gonna cut it in the eyes of the committee. I don't think even a win at home over a highly ranked Nova team in late Feb will put them over the top. It's difficult to make an argument for them any other way. Their only other recourse is if they make a significant run at MSG in the BE Tourney - and we all know how well X has played in conference (and holiday) tourneys of late.

Right now, the RPI is at 31. I just don't think the NCAA keeps X out if the RPI ends up below 40, when X plays in the #2 rated conference, regardless of the road record.

[xudash]

Right now, the RPI is at 31. I just don't think the NCAA keeps X out if the RPI ends up below 40, when X plays in the #2 rated conference, regardless of the road record.

Exactly.

[xu82]

Exactly.

I DO love the confidence. I have no idea if you're right, but it helps me sleep at night.

[RoseyMuskie]

Right now, the RPI is at 31. I just don't think the NCAA keeps X out if the RPI ends up below 40, when X plays in the #2 rated conference, regardless of the road record.

You're probably right, but I don't want to put it to chance.

[pimpinthebox]

Right now, the RPI is at 31. I just don't think the NCAA keeps X out if the RPI ends up below 40, when X plays in the #2 rated conference, regardless of the road record.

Agree to disagree. I consider myself two things - 1) an educated bubble guy & 2) an optimist. We have the kind of resume where they will look at our under 40 RPI and look to analyze it and see that we've done nothing away from home. It's not unheard of to leave a team out like that. Not at all. We need two road wins. One may do it. Two would all but clinch it assuming we win out at home - save the Nova game.

[xubrew]

Agree to disagree. I consider myself two things - 1) an educated bubble guy & 2) an optimist. We have the kind of resume where they will look at our under 40 RPI and look to analyze it and see that we've done nothing away from home. It's not unheard of to leave a team out like that. Not at all. We need two road wins. One may do it. Two would all but clinch it assuming we win out at home - save the Nova game.

The list of teams who have gotten in with just two true road wins is very small, and generally those teams won several neutral floor games and had multiple big wins at home. I remember when Penn State had six wins against the top 25 and was left out because all came at home. I think Minnesota had an RPI in the 30s last year and was left out.

Xavier had four road wins last year, and BARELY made it. Had things gone a little differently in conference tournaments, we probably wouldn't have gotten in.

I know all fans naturally see the things they think the committee will like (even if it's a stretch in some cases) and don't see what they won't like. But, whether anyone can see it or not, it's painfully obvious that this committee has a fetish for road wins. I think in several cases that's all they looked at. They like road wins over mediocre teams more than home wins against good teams. Xavier needs to win on the road, or they're not going, and I'm sure that once again everyone will be up in arms and screaming about how unfair it is. I'm not saying they're wrong, but I am saying that right or wrong, fair or not, this particular committee has shown us they won't take a team that can't win on the road.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I think the thing going for us this year vs last year is the Big East is just so much better. Either way we have to win two road games and hold serve at home to be safe. If we don't win two road games rest of the year then we don't deserve to dance anyway. What was the BIG ranked last year?

[XU 87]

Agree to disagree. I consider myself two things - 1) an educated bubble guy & 2) an optimist. We have the kind of resume where they will look at our under 40 RPI and look to analyze it and see that we've done nothing away from home. It's not unheard of to leave a team out like that. Not at all. We need two road wins. One may do it. Two would all but clinch it assuming we win out at home - save the Nova game.

I'm sticking with my opinion, regardless of any good arguments to the contrary. My opinion makes me feel better.

[RealDeal]

Hell Dayton has a few I Believe and they have no one over 6'6. Yes it's the A-10 but their talent is at that level. Right now I think X still has A-10 talent.

Seriously who give a fuck about dayton?

[nuts4xu]

Xavier needs to win on the road, or they're not going, and I'm sure that once again everyone will be up in arms and screaming about how unfair it is. I'm not saying they're wrong, but I am saying that right or wrong, fair or not, this particular committee has shown us they won't take a team that can't win on the road.

I agree with this. It may not be right, or fair, or just, but it is completely accurate based on the recent decisions by the committee.

The thinking is if a team can only win games with their home crowd behind them, they will struggle against teams in a tournament setting.

[xufan2434]

There is no chance X gets in with 0 road wins in conference. Palm who was at the game on Saturday said that is the biggest obstacle for this team. Must win at Creighton, and probably can't afford a loss at Marquette.

I just feel like if they get over the hump and grab one soon, then they will get more. I think Seton Hall is a very winnable game the way they've been playing. Whitehead won't be back in time for them to play us. GTown is gonna be tough, but I think X does match up well with them. Should be a roller coaster of a week.

[LA Muskie]

You need to win (a few) on the road to get in. Period. And I think that's perfectly fair. Like Brew pointed out, home teams win about 70% of their games. Which means that winning on the road is where you separate the men from the boys. If we don't win a BE game on the road (possibly 2), we don't deserve to make the tournament. Conference strength can only get you so far.

[JTG]

There is no chance X gets in with 0 road wins in conference. Palm who was at the game on Saturday said that is the biggest obstacle for this team. Must win at Creighton, and probably can't afford a loss at Marquette.

I just feel like if they get over the hump and grab one soon, then they will get more. I think Seton Hall is a very winnable game the way they've been playing. Whitehead won't be back in time for them to play us. GTown is gonna be tough, but I think X does match up well with them. Should be a roller coaster of a week.

I think once we win one the flip will be switched on. It's a matter of confidence at this point. Once they prove they can do it, I think we go on a win streak.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think the interesting part is that if we hold serve at home and get 2 road wins in conference we end up 11-7 in the BE which would be a pretty damn good record and would get us in probably with a decent seed (depending on BE tourney etc). But if we even go undefeated at home and win no road wins in conference and go 9-9 we may not get in because of the horrid road record on our resume.

So what essentially separates us from possibly getting into the tournament and with a solid seed and not getting in, are road wins @ Creighton and @ Marquette. That is pretty intriguing. We definitely are a strange case given our strong conference and having some good wins at home but not coming through on the road.

[Kahns Krazy]

Another Observation:

There are only 2 BE teams without a home loss.

Edit: Should be 3...I missed Georgetown.

Thank you.

Not losing at home is as important to your RPI as winning on the road. It's weird to me that the committee uses a formula that already discounts home wins, then will use an "eye test" to further adjust down your calculated score, using the same criteria. The math says 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road should be the same as 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road, but that's not how it seems the committee views it.

Providence was a huge missed opportunity.

[xubrew]

Thank you.

Not losing at home is as important to your RPI as winning on the road. It's weird to me that the committee uses a formula that already discounts home wins, then will use an "eye test" to further adjust down your calculated score, using the same criteria. The math says 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road should be the same as 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road, but that's not how it seems the committee views it.

Providence was a huge missed opportunity.

I agree. I'm all for rewarding teams that challenge themselves and go out and win on the road. I just think it's too slanted to the point to where that seems to be all they look at. I get that road wins are bigger, and that they should be valued more. I'm just saying that home wins should count for something, and it doesn't appear that they counted for much of anything last year. I mean that across the board, not just with us.

[Xville]

not that this really means anything because I think Lunardi is barely a step above a complete hack but it makes me feel better. As of right now, we are still in...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[pimpinthebox]

I agree. I'm all for rewarding teams that challenge themselves and go out and win on the road. I just think it's too slanted to the point to where that seems to be all they look at. I get that road wins are bigger, and that they should be valued more. I'm just saying that home wins should count for something, and it doesn't appear that they counted for much of anything last year. I mean that across the board, not just with us.

Our home wins (some solid ones at that) contribute to our relatively high RPI and get us on the committee's radar. Without those, we'd be up the crick. It also helps competing in a highly thought-of conference (2 in the RPI for those who don't know). And say what you want, but I also think our tourney history helps in the eyes of some. Like it or not, we need the roadies to complete our profile.


not that this really means anything because I think Lunardi is barely a step above a complete hack but it makes me feel better. As of right now, we are still in...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Yes and this assumes we win the games we're "supposed" to win. And those are @Marquette and @Creighton. The two road wins I believe we need to get in.

[Xville]

im just going to go ahead and assume we win at georgetown and seton hall this week. I do feel like this team is really really close to breaking loose. I feel a winning streak a coming. The effort has been there the last couple of road games, and as long as that continues, the results are going to follow.

[X-band '01]

I think the interesting part is that if we hold serve at home and get 2 road wins in conference we end up 11-7 in the BE which would be a pretty damn good record and would get us in probably with a decent seed (depending on BE tourney etc). But if we even go undefeated at home and win no road wins in conference and go 9-9 we may not get in because of the horrid road record on our resume.

So what essentially separates us from possibly getting into the tournament and with a solid seed and not getting in, are road wins @ Creighton and @ Marquette. That is pretty intriguing. We definitely are a strange case given our strong conference and having some good wins at home but not coming through on the road.

Even that's not enough. Last year, Xavier got road wins against teams ranked #5 (St. John's), #9 (Butler) and #10 (DePaul) in conference play along with a neutral court win against Marquette (#6). The schedule was front-loaded this year, so it's now put-up-or-shut-up time.

[X-band '01]

I agree. I'm all for rewarding teams that challenge themselves and go out and win on the road. I just think it's too slanted to the point to where that seems to be all they look at. I get that road wins are bigger, and that they should be valued more. I'm just saying that home wins should count for something, and it doesn't appear that they counted for much of anything last year. I mean that across the board, not just with us.

As UW-Green Bay found out last year, you can't just hang your hat only on road wins. They also had a nice win at home over Virginia, but they had a major slip-up at home in the Horizon League tournament last season.

[kyxu]

im just going to go ahead and assume we win at georgetown and seton hall this week. I do feel like this team is really really close to breaking loose. I feel a winning streak a coming. The effort has been there the last couple of road games, and as long as that continues, the results are going to follow.

I feel like we've been down this road too many times this season. For this team, until proven otherwise, home and road games stand on their own, so a solid home Xavier performance is gonna mean very little for an upcoming road contest.

[Boro Muskie]

Even that's not enough. Last year, Xavier got road wins against teams ranked #5 (St. John's), #9 (Butler) and #10 (DePaul) in conference play along with a neutral court win against Marquette (#6). The schedule was front-loaded this year, so it's now put-up-or-shut-up time.

I think I see them coming together a little more each game. The cuts made off the ball, particularly the last game, is an example of these guys starting to understand the what and when of things. I know its an excuse but again most of these guys are still playing their first year together (with an emphasis on together). When it becomes second nature and the players know their teammates will be in a certain spot and can make the play without thinking or hesitation, it will be a thing of beauty.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Even that's not enough. Last year, Xavier got road wins against teams ranked #5 (St. John's), #9 (Butler) and #10 (DePaul) in conference play along with a neutral court win against Marquette (#6). The schedule was front-loaded this year, so it's now put-up-or-shut-up time.

You are telling me that it is your opinion we dont make the tournament if we win out at home and win @Creighton and @Marquette and finish 11-7 in the Big East??? No way.

If thats your opinion you must think we have very little to no chance at grabbing a tourney bid this year right?

[Xville]

You are telling me that it is your opinion we dont make the tournament if we win out at home and win @Creighton and @Marquette and finish 11-7 in the Big East??? No way.

If thats your opinion you must think we have very little to no chance at grabbing a tourney bid this year right?

If this happens, it is my opinion we are talking about a seed somewhere between a 7-10 which is just fine with me....if we are in the 8-9 though just don't put us with Kentucky as the 1 please.

[X-band '01]

You are telling me that it is your opinion we dont make the tournament if we win out at home and win @Creighton and @Marquette and finish 11-7 in the Big East??? No way.

If thats your opinion you must think we have very little to no chance at grabbing a tourney bid this year right?

You're forgetting the conference tournament. Even if that scenario takes place, Xavier is looking at a 4-10 road/neutral record. I have a hard time believing that other bubble teams are going to be as bad away from home.

[94GRAD]

You're forgetting the conference tournament. Even if that scenario takes place, Xavier is looking at a 4-10 road/neutral record. I have a hard time believing that other bubble teams are going to be as bad away from home.

I think you greatly under estimate bubble teams road records.

[xubrew]

You are telling me that it is your opinion we dont make the tournament if we win out at home and win @Creighton and @Marquette and finish 11-7 in the Big East??? No way.

If thats your opinion you must think we have very little to no chance at grabbing a tourney bid this year right?

Go back over the last several years and do a quick count of teams that won no OOC games against tournament teams that are inside the bubble (ie, not needing an at-large bid), won fewer than four true road games, and only finished four games above .500 that actually made the NCAA Tournament. I believe it is only one.

I realize that is very categorical, but to XBand's point, that is the kind of profile the committee has passed on in the recent past.

I'm sure no one thought of it this way at the time, but just winning at Auburn would have made things look much better.

[xufan2434]

Once X wins tomorrow night, this won't matter

[markchal]

If this happens, it is my opinion we are talking about a seed somewhere between a 7-10 which is just fine with me....if we are in the 8-9 though just don't put us with Kentucky as the 1 please.

I'll play anyone in the second round. I don't care if we play the Globetrotters, this fan base needs a tourney win. I could care less about the draw if we're in the round of 32.

[Kahns Krazy]

Go back over the last several years and do a quick count of teams that won no OOC games against tournament teams that are inside the bubble (ie, not needing an at-large bid), won fewer than four true road games, and only finished four games above .500 that actually made the NCAA Tournament. I believe it is only one.

I realize that is very categorical, but to XBand's point, that is the kind of profile the committee has passed on in the recent past.

I'm sure no one thought of it this way at the time, but just winning at Auburn would have made things look much better.

I'm not sure what tournament teams that are inside the bubble means not needing an at large bid means. Isn't that just conference champions?

[xubrew]

I'm not sure what tournament teams that are inside the bubble means not needing an at large bid means. Isn't that just conference champions?

Yes, that's what I said means. Unfortunately I did not say what I meant.

I meant to say not needing an AUTOMATIC bid. A simpler way of putting it is teams seeded not seeded lower than the First Four.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think you greatly under estimate bubble teams road records.

This.

If we win out at home and win two road games, there is no way we are out. Bubble teams have weak resumes one way or the other, our weakness would be road wins yes but we would have a pretty sizable amount of top 50 RPI wins. Enough so that it really outweighed the other bubble teams who also have not great road records.

[nasdadjr]

Yes but we must win two on the road. Don't forget the difference last year between us and St Johns was the fact we won in new york. We must be over .500 in conference with a road win at either Seton hall georgetown or ooc at uc to be considered imo regardless of rpi. We don't even have any injuries that can be presented to the committee as an excuse for losing on the road.