The offense: Here come the tests

[casualfan]

I started thinking about this in the great thread MOR posted about Semaj and what effect he might have on this team, but as I looked at the numbers I thought it deserved it's own thread so here goes:

First, a disclaimer: All of the numbers below are based on KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings system. It ranks every NCAA team's defense relative to all the other teams. Here (http://kenpom.com/) is a link to where the numbers come from and here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Pomeroy) is a link to Pomeroy's wiki page which talks a bit about his background and rankings. It's very useful tool that lots of people utilize so you may want to check his website out if you're not familiar with it. (Also keep in mind the numbers may change slightly from when this is written to when you may be reading it as they are constantly updated as game results finalize).

Anyway, here's what I found interesting:

To date Xavier has played 14 games. Here is each team and their ranking in parentheses:

Northern Arizona (224)
Long Beach St. (132)
Stephen F. Austin (93)
Murray State (232)
San Diego (77)
UTEP (79)
Long Beach St. (132)
Alabama (73)
IUPUI (213)
Missouri (168)
Auburn (72)
FGCU (92)
Georgetown (64)
Depaul (288)

The average defensive rating of the teams we have played is 138.5.

That's not very good which got me thinking. Will our future games be against better defensive teams, and if so by how much.

Here are the teams we have yet to play with their defensive rating in parentheses:

Seton Hall (39)
Butler (16)
Villanova (10)
Marquette (89)
Providence (62)
Depaul (288)
Georgetown (64)
Seton Hall (39)
Creighton (143)
Providence (62)
Marquette (89)
St. John's (14)
Cincinnati (29)
Butler (16)
St. John's (14)
Villanova (10)
Creighton (143)

The average defensive rating for the teams we will play over our remaining 17 games is 66.2.

Now, given the strength of our league and the weakness of our non-con some drop is to be expected, but that is pretty drastic.

The best defensive team we have played to date is Georgetown (64). That's not far off the average of the teams we've yet to play.

We haven't played a team who is as good defensively as the team we'll be facing in 11 of our 17 remaining games (12 if you count Georgetown on the road which works on the assumption they play better defense at home).

That's pretty remarkable and the numbers get even more daunting when you realize the numbers are being greatly skewed by Creighton and Depaul who are both pretty bad defensively (143 and 288 respectively)

Having done all the numbers my question is this: What is realistic in terms of offensive expectation the rest of the year?

I don't think it's a secret that the offense has carried us to this point. Can that continue?

Personally, I think it is fair to expect the offense will experience a bit of a drop off as they face these better teams but I'm interested to hear everyone's thoughts on the matter.

[bleedXblue]

Great point. Many of us have been and continue to be focused on defensive improvement out of this team. Of course, it's important. But the offense is really going to be tested moving forward. We didn't pass the first test @ DePaul and they are the worst defensive team on our schedule.

[XfansinKy]

Casual I appreciate the research you have done here. Big props to you on that. This is a big reality check too.

[drudy23]

To me, this only re-emphasizes the importance of defense. Great defensive teams are always in games. Great defense makes average teams good and good teams great. It all starts on the defensive end.

[casualfan]

Great point. Many of us have been and continue to be focused on defensive improvement out of this team. Of course, it's important. But the offense is really going to be tested moving forward. We didn't pass the first test @ DePaul and they are the worst defensive team on our schedule.

I'm glad you brought up this point because I meant to make a point about the defense in my original post and forgot to do so.

IMHO the defense has to get better. We're currently 14th in the country in his adjusted offense so unfortunately I don't know that there is much room for the offense to go upwards.

I'll be interested to see how Mack distributes the minutes because IMHO our best defenders are not our best scorers and vice versa, particularly at two spots.

[Juice]

I started thinking about this in the great thread MOR posted about Semaj and what effect he might have on this team, but as I looked at the numbers I thought it deserved it's own thread so here goes:

First, a disclaimer: All of the numbers below are based on KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings system. It ranks every NCAA team's defense relative to all the other teams. Here (http://kenpom.com/) is a link to where the numbers come from and here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Pomeroy) is a link to Pomeroy's wiki page which talks a bit about his background and rankings. It's very useful tool that lots of people utilize so you may want to check his website out if you're not familiar with it. (Also keep in mind the numbers may change slightly from when this is written to when you may be reading it as they are constantly updated as game results finalize).

Anyway, here's what I found interesting:

To date Xavier has played 14 games. Here is each team and their ranking in parentheses:

Northern Arizona (224)
Long Beach St. (132)
Stephen F. Austin (93)
Murray State (232)
San Diego (77)
UTEP (79)
Long Beach St. (132)
Alabama (73)
IUPUI (213)
Missouri (168)
Auburn (72)
FGCU (92)
Georgetown (64)
Depaul (288)

The average defensive rating of the teams we have played is 138.5.

That's not very good which got me thinking. Will our future games be against better defensive teams, and if so by how much.

Here are the teams we have yet to play with their defensive rating in parentheses:

Seton Hall (39)
Butler (16)
Villanova (10)
Marquette (89)
Providence (62)
Depaul (288)
Georgetown (64)
Seton Hall (39)
Creighton (143)
Providence (62)
Marquette (89)
St. John's (14)
Cincinnati (29)
Butler (16)
St. John's (14)
Villanova (10)
Creighton (143)

The average defensive rating for the teams we will play over our remaining 17 games is 66.2.

Now, given the strength of our league and the weakness of our non-con some drop is to be expected, but that is pretty drastic.

The best defensive team we have played to date is Georgetown (64). That's not far off the average of the teams we've yet to play.

We haven't played a team who is as good defensively as the team we'll be facing in 11 of our 17 remaining games (12 if you count Georgetown on the road which works on the assumption they play better defense at home).

That's pretty remarkable and the numbers get even more daunting when you realize the numbers are being greatly skewed by Creighton and Depaul who are both pretty bad defensively (143 and 288 respectively)

Having done all the numbers my question is this: What is realistic in terms of offensive expectation the rest of the year?

I don't think it's a secret that the offense has carried us to this point. Can that continue?

Personally, I think it is fair to expect the offense will experience a bit of a drop off as they face these better teams but I'm interested to hear everyone's thoughts on the matter.

I do expect a drop off but doesn't his efficiency rankings take into account the efficiency ratings of your opponent. So while X has been the 14th most efficient offense, that ranking of 14 takes into account how bad some of the defenses X has played have been and not just in a vacuum of "putting up huge numbers against shit teams."

[casualfan]

I do expect a drop off but doesn't his efficiency rankings take into account the efficiency ratings of your opponent. So while X has been the 14th most efficient offense, that ranking of 14 takes into account how bad some of the defenses X has played have been and not just in a vacuum of "putting up huge numbers against shit teams."

This is correct although I don't know why it'd affect what I'm saying.

I'm saying as we play better defensive teams our production will change. The real life number of points we score.

That can change and not change his rating of our o.

[Three Point Pete]

Tough spot! Best case is not much of a drop on account of ability to score, keep decent percentage on FGs and hit free throws. We do have shooters with game! Worst case is increased pressure from a swarming defense leading to too many TOs and mistakes that take all the wind from the sails. Hopefully the reality is between these extremes!

[Three Point Pete]

For convenience, just following up: Xavier 69 (below our average) SHU 58 (below their average, too!) FG 26-52 50% awesome production, 3 pts. 3-15 20% FT 14-16 87.5%. Seems like the offense rolls along!

[JAPER]

If x hits a few of those 3s tonight that timed out,,, we're looking at a semi- blowout akin to the g'town game.