Are We Making The Tournament?

[SM#24]

KenPom = 26
Sagarin = 27
RPI (per CBS) = 40
Based on those alone, we're in as of today.

As I look at our schedule and our accomplishments and pants craps so far, it does not scream tourney team. But I haven't looked that in-depth at everyone else in the top 50-60, so maybe what we've done to date is a lot better that I actually think it is.
To make the tourney, you need to be in the top 45-50.

[muskieindent]

Does anyone know if a team has made the tournament (as an at large) without winning a road conference game?
I was wondering that also.Something tells me no.I think we need to get to 10 wins in conference to get an at large bid.Plenty of opportunities to get quality wins.Thats the one advantage of the BE over the A10.I think somewhere we get a road win or 2.Winning out at home would be a big help particularly a win over Villanova.

[XUOHTX]

Wow, being in the BE helps. Imagine if we had this record and were still in the A10.

[Xavier]

True, but at least with the A-10 I always felt they had a chance because they could win the conference tournament. A lot more difficult to win the BE tournament than A-10.

Also, talking with the group of friends last night, they mentioned how Xavier always used to get better as the season went on. I think a lot of that had to do with playing in the A-10. It allowed the team to get confidence in themselves which is huge.

[crolfes12]

ESPN-9 seed
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/213
CBS-10 seed
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
USA Today-10 seed
http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/02/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-big-dance-bubble/

[Xavier_Musketeers]

ESPN-9 seed
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/213

I would be okay if we played SDSU our first game, and Gonzaga is definitely the most beatable of the one seeds

[drudy23]

Maybe adding four more teams does make a significant difference in perceptions, but I still don't "feel" like this team is tournament worthy. Obviously, most sites disagree with me. Perhaps I'm too used to A10 scheduling and success. Guess the benefit of the doubt is implied when you have the second ranked RPI conference.

[Xville]

Maybe adding four more teams does make a significant difference in perceptions, but I still don't "feel" like this team is tournament worthy. Obviously, most sites disagree with me. Perhaps I'm too used to A10 scheduling and success. Guess the benefit of the doubt is implied when you have the second ranked RPI conference.

i guess so....i still think lunardi is bonkers if he thinks 7 teams from the big east are getting in. I know we are the second ranked rpi conference but i mean still, st. johns is 3-5 in conference and he has them in.

[Xtemporaneous]

Hell we got 8 votes in the poll today. Guess we're now getting respect for losing. Especially when people jump at you like Whitehead did to Stainbrook. I have never seen that before in my life. Seton Hall is the most bush-league team EVAR.

EDIT: Added link - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2015/poll/1

[Masterofreality]

Look, all this speculation aside, we have to win basketball games.

A minimum of 6 more before the BE Tourney, and preferably 3 of those are on the road, but need at least 2 roadies.

Without that, we'll have work to do in New York.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

Look, all this speculation aside, we have to win basketball games.

A minimum of 6 more before the BE Tourney, and preferably 3 of those are on the road, but need at least 2 roadies.

Without that, we'll have work to do in New York.

I just want to win the Big East Tournament. I am always so nervous on Selection Sunday and it would be great if I knew that we were in

[kmcrawfo]

i guess so....i still think lunardi is bonkers if he thinks 7 teams from the big east are getting in. I know we are the second ranked rpi conference but i mean still, st. johns is 3-5 in conference and he has them in.

This is the benefit of being in the 2nd or 3rd best league in the country. I think we get 6 teams in, not 7. But, if the 7th team pulls a couple upset wind over say Villanova and Georgetown then the 7th team is in.

I don't know how people at the moment can think that we are at risk to not make the tournament based on our performance to date (top 30 RPI, 3 top 25 wins, 1 top 25 road win, no really bad loses, etc. We don't need to steal any wins. We simply need to win to games we are supposed to win going forward. At this time, the first time we are in trouble is when we drop a home game against a team not named Villanova. If we beat Nova at home, I think we are looking really rosy at 10-8 in conference even if we drop the rest of our road games.

Stay positive and just win.

[LA Muskie]

I don't think it's very likely the BE gets 7 teams in. If the 7th goes on a tear at the end of the season and warrants inclusion, it will most likely come at the expense of the #5 or #6 team.

[GoMuskies]

I'm sure it will happen soon enough, but we need to get DePaul out of the top 6 of the standings, because no one behind DePaul in the standings at the end of the year is making the Tournament.

[xubrew]

This is the benefit of being in the 2nd or 3rd best league in the country. I think we get 6 teams in, not 7. But, if the 7th team pulls a couple upset wind over say Villanova and Georgetown then the 7th team is in.

I don't know how people at the moment can think that we are at risk to not make the tournament based on our performance to date (top 30 RPI, 3 top 25 wins, 1 top 25 road win, no really bad loses, etc. We don't need to steal any wins. We simply need to win to games we are supposed to win going forward. At this time, the first time we are in trouble is when we drop a home game against a team not named Villanova. If we beat Nova at home, I think we are looking really rosy at 10-8 in conference even if we drop the rest of our road games.

Stay positive and just win.

Just speaking for myself, I think different things about teams jump out at different committee members, and three or four of them really don't care how many top 25 and top 50 wins you have as much as they care about how many road wins you have. I don't think they evaluate teams quite like ESPN and CBS do. Those in the media who call themselves bracketoligists seem to have a very categorical viewpoint when it comes to how they look at teams. I think the committee looks at them differently, which is why everyone has been up in arms about the selections and seedings the last few years.

I think Xavier will get in, but realize that the three wins we have, two were at home against Georgetown and Seton Hall. Georgetown is just 5-4 in games away from home, and they do have some decent neutral floor wins against Indiana and Florida, but their best true road win came against DePaul. Seton Hall is 6-4, but their best win away from home was probably on a neutral site against Illinois State, and their best true road win was against either Marquette or Creighton. They're not beating tournament caliber teams away from home.

Again, the committee will see that, and we probably won't get as much credit from them for those home wins as many at CBS and ESPN are probably giving us.

I'm not trying to start an argument because arguing about it last year with seemingly everyone gave me a headache. I'm just saying that the committee looks at things differently than what most bracketologists do. Just my opinion. Take it or leave it.

[waggy]

I think Xavier will get in, but realize that the three wins we have, two were at home against Georgetown and Seton Hall. Georgetown is just 5-4 in games away from home, and they do have some decent neutral floor wins against Indiana and Florida, but their best true road win came against DePaul. Seton Hall is 6-4, but their best win away from home was probably on a neutral site against Illinois State, and their best true road win was against either Marquette or Creighton. They're not beating tournament caliber teams away from home.

Again, the committee will see that, and we probably won't get as much credit from them for those home wins as many at CBS and ESPN are probably giving us.

Take it or leave it.


Yeah.

Thanks.

[xubrew]

Yeah.

Thanks.

I guess that means you're leaving it.

[waggy]

Yeah.

[GIMMFD]

Look, all this speculation aside, we have to win basketball games.

A minimum of 6 more before the BE Tourney, and preferably 3 of those are on the road, but need at least 2 roadies.

Without that, we'll have work to do in New York.

I think we will get 3 road wins, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Creighton, and as long as we win out at home (or only loss is Nova) we would be fine going into the BE Tourney.

[xubrew]

I think we will get 3 road wins, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Creighton, and as long as we win out at home (or only loss is Nova) we would be fine going into the BE Tourney.

If we do all that we should be fine. That would be five true road wins, one against a slam dunk tournament team and another against a likely tournament team.

[GoMuskies]

I think we will get 3 road wins, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Creighton, and as long as we win out at home (or only loss is Nova) we would be fine going into the BE Tourney.

With this we'd be looking at a pretty good seed.

[Masterofreality]

With this we'd be looking at a pretty good seed.

Yes we would. If we win out with 3 road pops that's 22-9 with a BE record of 12-6. Without Nova that is 21-10, 11-7. Got to be a 6 at highest.

[LA Muskie]

That's a hell of a lot of wins for this team to string together. Would certainly make this message board a better place. And of course, if indeed it happens, we should be sitting nice and pretty come Selection Sunday.

[letskeepitreal]

We gotta win 6 of 9 to be sure of a berth in the dance. Minimally 4of 5 at home and two road wins will do it. Certainly not a sure thing. We gotta bring our A game

[xufan2020]

Call me crazy, but I personally think X has a better chance at beating St. John's in the Garden, than winning at Creighton... Something about Senior night; it always a team plays their most inspired basketball in that game.
Nevertheless, I see X getting in to the tourney.

[vee4xu]

The way X played the second halves of Auburn, DePaul, Seton Hall and Butler, I think talk of three road wins is way too premature. This team isn't to transform itself into some road juggernaut simply by hoping it to be so. Look, I'd love X to beat UC and each of the remaining league road games. I just haven't seen anything other than the Georgetown game on the road that gives me any confidence that it'll happen. But, here's hoping that it does.

[GIMMFD]

The way X played the second halves of Auburn, DePaul, Seton Hall and Butler, I think talk of three road wins is way too premature. This team isn't to transform itself into some road juggernaut simply by hoping it to be so. Look, I'd love X to beat UC and each of the remaining league road games. I just haven't seen anything other than the Georgetown game on the road that gives me any confidence that it'll happen. But, here's hoping that it does.

Call it a homer pick, but something in my gut just tells me we are going to sort this issue out and do well in our remaining 9. I can't put behind any rhyme or reason to it, because you're right about the team not showing up for two halves on the road. I just think some motivation will be key, I think if we can clip UC, you see a different Xavier team down the stretch.

[X-band '01]

Call me crazy, but I personally think X has a better chance at beating St. John's in the Garden, than winning at Creighton... Something about Senior night; it always a team plays their most inspired basketball in that game.
Nevertheless, I see X getting in to the tourney.

I don't think it's far fetched - like Georgetown, their big man Obekpa is a pure post player that won't draw Stainbrook out towards the arc on defense.

[xufan2434]

Call me crazy, but I personally think X has a better chance at beating St. John's in the Garden, than winning at Creighton... Something about Senior night; it always a team plays their most inspired basketball in that game.
Nevertheless, I see X getting in to the tourney.

Completely agree... Creighton has played some bad basketball all year. But when St Johns went there a week ago, Creighton started splashing threes again left and right. For whatever reason I have the same feeling it could be the exact kind of night when X heads in for senior night.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

We lost to Auburn RPI 167, DePaul RPI 126, Creighton RPI 125. Those should all be wins right there. We could be 17-6 right now and ranked

[RealDeal]

No.

[gladdenguy]

Now we can put this to bed. I wouldn't be surprised if Mack flaked this season and didn't make the NIT.
This season has turned into a joke. Of course most of us knew it was after the Auburn and Depaul losses.
The Georgetown wins gave the team some hope but in the end the flaws were always there. This team can't shoot consistently and can't defend.

No. This team is not a tourney team. Not even close.

[XMuskieFTW]

Oh calm down. We are still on the bubble. Do I think we'll make it? Probably not, but we still have a decent chance too. Just as good a chance as all those other teams on the bubble. We can't put this to bed until the BE tourney is over.

[Masterofreality]

If Xavier does not win Saturday, stick a fork in this season. Done.

[Title_BU]

No. This team is not a tourney team. Not even close.

After last night, XU is 27th in Pomeroy and 26th in the RPI. I doubt you actually believe that, but if you do youd be wrong (and reactionary)

[gladdenguy]

If Xavier does not win Saturday, stick a fork in this season. Done.

Even if they do win Saturday.......no way this team goes 5-2 to finish the year.
Butler @ home - maybe win....who knows after last night
St. Johns @ home - maybe win....who knows after last night.
Villanova @ home - Loss
Creighton away - Loss
Marquette away - Loss
St. Johns away - Loss
sUCks away - Loss

Maybe 3 more wins this year. I could also see them winning only 1 or 2.

[gladdenguy]

After last night, XU is 27th in Pomeroy and 26th in the RPI. I doubt you actually believe that, but if you do youd be wrong (and reactionary)

They are now 38th in the RPI. Nice try though.

[danaandvictory]

There is still ample time for Xavier's RPI and Pomeroy ranking to plummet like a rock. Just like last year.

Seriously if the best we are hoping for is to back in to a playin game (again) that's pretty sad. Maybe I'm unreasonable but I much preferred when February was about jockeying for seeding and looking forward to a tourney run.

[GoMuskies]

After last night, XU is 27th in Pomeroy and 26th in the RPI. I doubt you actually believe that, but if you do youd be wrong (and reactionary)

Oh man, we've got BU fans feeling sorry for us now and trying to cheer us up. What's next, Dayton fans? This is the most depressing thing I've seen since the game.

[casualfan]

After last night, XU is 27th in Pomeroy and 38th in the RPI. I doubt you actually believe that, but if you do youd be wrong (and reactionary)

Fixed that for you.

[LadyMuskie]

Oh man, we've got BU fans feeling sorry for us now and trying to cheer us up. What's next, Dayton fans? This is the most depressing thing I've seen since the game.

Jesus. Things are really bad when opposing fans are showing pity. Word must be out we're on suicide watch.

[paulxu]

Yes.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I don't see this team winning more than 3 remaining games. I don't see game to game improvement anywhere. You will have one game where everything is put together then the next it's a stinkbomb. I just don't see this team flipping a switch and getting it all together. I think this is a 17-18 win team with one win in the BE tournament and heading to the NIT. Best case, they go on a roll but do any of you seriously think that is going to happen?

[XMuskieFTW]

Lunardi still has us in as one of the last four teams to get a bye for whatever that means. I'd say it's 50/50 at this point if we make it or not. This team has the talent.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yes.

Agreed.

[LA Muskie]

I think our Pom scores are benefitted by early season offensive efficiency. Not sure how Sagarin works but the same may hold true there. We've still got games to play. Problem is the odds are just as good (if not better) that we will have another bad loss before the end of the season than that we will conjure up another good win.

I think we'd still be in right now. But I think we very well could play ourselves out. And I don't think it would take much to do so. We are on the razor's edge at this point.

[XUFan09]

I think our Pom scores are benefitted by early season offensive efficiency. Not sure how Sagarin works but the same may hold true there. We've still got games to play. Problem is the odds are just as good (if not better) that we will have another bad loss before the end of the season than that we will conjure up another good win.

I think we'd still be in right now. But I think we very well could play ourselves out. And I don't think it would take much to do so. We are on the razor's edge at this point.

Yup. That Georgetown game that gave Xavier a nice cushion just got thrown away.

[bjf123]

If Xavier does not win Saturday, stick a fork in this season. Done.

This. I think the only way we're dancing, barring winning the BE tourney, is to win out at home and get at least two road wins. Possible, but doubtful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Xavier]

I think if we beat Nova at home it easily erases this loss. Don't think we have to win out at home and win two road games. Heading to the Big East tournament (where obviously things could change) I think 6-2 with a loss to Nova would have us feeling comfortable heading to the BE tournament, 5-3 with a win over Nova as well. But XUFan09 would know better- I am basing this off nothing but a pure guess.

[XUFan09]

My post copied and pasted from the Scout board:

Xavier had a good probability of making the tournament coming into this game, even with the maddening inconsistency that they still display this late in the season. A very low probability outcome happened, though, and they picked up a really bad loss. This unfortunately cancels out the Georgetown win, for all intents and purposes, and their probability of making the tournament just took a big hit.

Before there was a solid chance of making the tournament with 19 wins (That's what a top 10 SOS will do for you, among other things that can mask flaws). That's still in play, because out of necessity they would have to pick up more good wins to get there now. However, the likelihood of 19 wins being good enough is probably diminished compared to when the theoretical resume did not have a bad home loss, despite the addition of another good win/solid win. Even if those things even out, though (which is optimistic), the probability of even getting to 19 wins is obviously lower. With a win vs. Creighton, they just needed to go 4-4 (and 5-3 to really feel safe). Now they have to go 5-3 (and 6-2 to really feel safe).

Essentially, Xavier just took that cushion and threw it away. They fell down into bubble territory with this loss.

Addition since that post: Team Rankings has since updated and Xavier was the second biggest loser yesterday, with a 17.6% drop from 85.7% to 68.1%. Like all numbers, I use such prognostications as a reference for rough estimates rather than as an authoritative claim. You get the idea, though. Even a pessimist who would think these numbers are inflated can't entirely dismiss them; Xavier still has a good shot of making the tournament, but losing a game with a 90% win probability creates cause for concern.

[markchal]

Even if we get in, is there anything we've seen that makes you feel like we could go on a run? I always used to think we could get hot and do damage, but given our depth issues and lack of a killer instinct in close games, I think we'd just face another quick exit.

[Backyard Champ]

I think there is potential for a win and possibly two depending on the match ups. It's all about getting to the dance (not the play in game)

Three point shooting is killing us. However, when we are hitting, we are very tough to beat.

[goldiewilson]

I have seen your team play several times this year, and I have to say they don't look tourney worthy to me.
Alot of the pieces seem there, but the chemistry seems off way too much, and wow are they bad at defending
the three.
I think that loss to Creighton just sank Xavier's battleship.

Just my honest opinion.

[LadyMuskie]

I have seen your team play several times this year, and I have to say they don't look tourney worthy to me.
Alot of the pieces seem there, but the chemistry seems off way too much, and wow are they bad at defending
the three.
I think that loss to Creighton just sank Xavier's battleship.

Just my honest opinion.

What do you know? You're just the mayor of Hill Valley!

[xu82]

Three point shooting is killing us. However, when we are hitting, we are very tough to beat.

Yep. Imagine if we were more like 12-25 instead of 1-25 on threes. Very different games. Three of our top deep shooters are freshmen and a sophomore. Yes, it's killing us along with some weak D. That shouldn't surprise anyone too much - it goes with the territory. Hopefully they can work out of this funk.

[goldiewilson]

Well, considering at one point I was mopping floors in that damn soda shop, I think I did alright��.

[Strange Brew]

Well, considering at one point I was mopping floors in that damn soda shop, I think I did alright��.

Great handle by the way. I can't say I disagree with your comment however the beauty of this league is X still gets 'Nova at home. Win that and the team rises Lazarus.

I was thinking about the '04 team, which was in worse shape heading into UC (earlier in the year in '04 I know). That win sparked the greatest run in X history. A win against 'Nova or UC may be what this team needs (and a great pump up theme song, I'm recommending Van Halen's Jump to send them on a deep run.

[waggy]

I'm recommending Van Halen's Jump to send them on a deep run.


If you could get it reworked to Jump Off One Foot, you might have something.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

If we win against Providence we should be alright for now. Their RPI is 20, that would be a huge win. That loss to Creighton really hurt us though.

[Milhouse]

Tomorrow is a must win plain and simple. Hope the team knows that too. Not time to mess around anymore.

[MuskiePimp23]

Not a chance we make the NCAA tourney. Maybe the NIT.

[Porkopolis]

Not a chance we make the NCAA tourney. Maybe the NIT.

I think our chances took a big hit this week, but if you truly believe there is no chance you must not pay attention to the other bubble teams. Flawed resumes all around which is why they are on the bubble. We have as good a chance as any of them.

[paulxu]

Jeebus our RPI took a hit from Creighton, Providence didn't help it all.
We're now a projected 39. Crap.

[LadyMuskie]

Jeebus our RPI took a hit from Creighton, Providence didn't help it all.
We're now a projected 39. Crap.

That Creighton loss is going to haunt us unless we're Big East Tournament Champs. I hope we deliver some payback in Omaha on Senior Night.

[XMuskieFTW]

I think 5-2 gets us in. 4-3 with a win in New York gets us in at 20-13 for play in game. 4-3 and two wins in New York gets us in without play in. 3-4 we will need to win the BE tourney. Totally in our hands. Hopefully we see the second half of today's team

[Titanxman04]

Yes. We'll be dancing.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Palm updated his bracket last night. Has X as a 9 seed in Louisville...playing Dayton.

[XUFan09]

Bracket Matrix has Xavier as the best 10 seed. That's the composite of a bunch of different bracket predictions, and it tends to be one of the best predictors of tournament teams and seeding. That's crowd-sourcing for ya.

A little over half of the brackets were updated after the Creighton loss.

[BMoreX]

33 RPI as of right now.

[XUFan09]

By the way, someone mentioned Kenpom bumping up to 25th after the game. It wasn't really that significant, as they were 27th before the game. They basically beat Providence by close to the expected margin (9 instead of the predicted 7) and close to the expected points per possession for both teams.

[MuskiePimp23]

Here is the problem with all of these projections...Do any of you think Xavier will actually go 5-2 from here on out? Do you have confidence for us winning away in any of our 4 road games? At home, we have 2 Top 25 teams including a Top 10 team to go along with another Top 50 RPI game...no joke. I could see us easily going 2-5 or 1-6 as I could seeing us go 5-2. We are maddeningly inconsistent. I hope that throw off the backboard to Jalen dunk turned around this teams attitude and they become "nasty" like Xavier teams of old and take it on the road. Otherwise, you are more likely looking at 2-5. Since this team started 8-2, we have gone 7-7 and until yesterday had a losing record since that first 10 game start.

The other difference is compared to all of the other bubble teams, I feel our schedule is by far among the toughest if not the toughest based on who we play and when from here on out. Back to back uc, then Butler (two rivalry games), then a quick turnaround to Monday @ St. John's and I can very easily see that being an 0-3 stretch.

Projections of seeds are based on if the season ended today...We still have a good deal amount of games left with "opportunities", but I would say very difficult ones at that. If we haven't started capitalizing at this point, whose to say we will?

[Masterofreality]

33 RPI as of right now.

And despite being 17-5, VDump is 35. They'll continue to drop too even if they win, because their next 5 games have 3 against teams that are over 200 RPI and 2 against teams that are 122 and 177 respectively.

[bleedXblue]

Here is the problem with all of these projections...Do any of you think Xavier will actually go 5-2 from here on out? Do you have confidence for us winning away in any of our 4 road games? At home, we have 2 Top 25 teams including a Top 10 team to go along with another Top 50 RPI game...no joke. I could see us easily going 2-5 or 1-6 as I could seeing us go 5-2. We are maddeningly inconsistent. I hope that throw off the backboard to Jalen dunk turned around this teams attitude and they become "nasty" like Xavier teams of old and take it on the road. Otherwise, you are more likely looking at 2-5. Since this team started 8-2, we have gone 7-7 and until yesterday had a losing record since that first 10 game start.

The other difference is compared to all of the other bubble teams, I feel our schedule is by far among the toughest if not the toughest based on who we play and when from here on out. Back to back uc, then Butler (two rivalry games), then a quick turnaround to Monday @ St. John's and I can very easily see that being an 0-3 stretch.

Projections of seeds are based on if the season ended today...We still have a good deal amount of games left with "opportunities", but I would say very difficult ones at that. If we haven't started capitalizing at this point, whose to say we will?

X has to get to 20 wins to have realistic chance. The Creighton loss was devastating. But, a W against Villanova would negate that. Agree that this team has exhibited no consistency. Unlike teams of the past that went on nice runs rattling off 6-7 straight W's, I just don't think this team has enough confidence in their ability to make that happen. I think Tuesday is huge. A W on the road at Marquette would be a nice start.

[MuskiePimp23]

X has to get to 20 wins to have realistic chance. The Creighton loss was devastating. But, a W against Villanova would negate that. Agree that this team has exhibited no consistency. Unlike teams of the past that went on nice runs rattling off 6-7 straight W's, I just don't think this team has enough confidence in their ability to make that happen. I think Tuesday is huge. A W on the road at Marquette would be a nice start.

Definitely agree with that...I would feel a lot better if we can get it done on Tuesday and then next Saturday at home. Marquette gave us all we could handle at home and just won at Seton Hall w/out Carlino so I am just not too optimistic about winning at their place. We need a little streak. Providence had won 4 of 5 before yesterday...Something like that kind of streak, being able to win 3 of 4, or 4 of 5 and I would feel better about us making the tourney and also an ability to do something in the postseason. Right now, I just think this is an NIT team until they prove otherwise.

[XUFan09]

I could see us easily going 2-5 or 1-6 as I could seeing us go 5-2.

That's because you let your emotional attachment as a fan get in the way of a sound judgment. It's just as far off the mark as that optimist who thinks Xavier is going to run the table and go 7-0 or 6-1 after seeing that second half. Now, if you said that you could see us going 3-4 as easily as 5-2, then we're talking. That I agree with, and 18 wins wouldn't be enough.

[D-West & PO-Z]

That's because you let your emotional attachment as a fan get in the way of a sound judgment. It's just as far off the mark as that optimist who thinks Xavier is going to run the table and go 7-0 or 6-1 after seeing that second half. Now, if you said that you could see us going 3-4 as easily as 5-2, then we're talking. That I agree with, and 18 wins wouldn't be enough.

Exactly

[GoMuskies]

It's just as far off the mark as that optimist who thinks Xavier is going to run the table and go 7-0 or 6-1 after seeing that second half.

Not even being an optimist, if we are truly as good as Pomeroy says we are, there's really NO reason for Xavier to NOT go 6-1.

[nuts4xu]

Yes. We will make the tournament.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yes. We will make the tournament.

Yes we will Nuts!

[XUFan09]

Not even being an optimist, if we are truly as good as Pomeroy says we are, there's really NO reason for Xavier to NOT go 6-1.

Eh, I don't know if I'd go that far with Kenpom. I think it's fair to categorize Xavier as an above average home team and a below average road team. Nothing crazy there. That said, assume that a home win probability is deflated and a road win probability is inflated (though neither as significantly as an optimist or a pessimist, respectively, would believe). This last weekend I charted the Kenpom probability of each outcome for the remaining five home games and the remaining three road games. I charted them separatelely, because Xavier is not your typical team, as mentioned. I did not include the UC game, just conference games. Since we lost to Creighton (extremely low probability) and beat Providence (fairly high probability), the possible outcomes have been cut down:

Home:
3-0 (24.6%)
2-1 (47.8%)
1-2 (27.5%)

Road:
3-0 (22.5%)
2-1 (45.9%)
1-2 (27.0%)
0-3 (4.8%)

In conference, the most probable outcome is that Xavier loses one more home game and one more road game, and it's not even close enough to other outcomes for any (rational) optimist or pessimist to just dismiss that. Since they are not favored at UC (currently a 38% win probability), the most likely outcome is three more losses, or a 4-3 record (with a 5-2 record as second most probable, followed by 3-4). That's 19 wins, where Xavier is more likely to make the tournaent than not, but the "not" is significant. If they finish better than the most probable record, they are a virtual lock. If they finish worse than the most probable record, they are basically not in. With an SOS as strong as Xavier's, some prognostications (like Team Rankings) still give them a minor chance of an at-large bid with 18 wins, but the way this Committee has been trending lately, I doubt it.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

Can't lose to Marquette they are 11-12 that would be another terrible loss

[MuskiePimp23]

Eh, I don't know if I'd go that far with Kenpom. I think it's fair to categorize Xavier as an above average home team and a below average road team. Nothing crazy there. That said, assume that a home win probability is deflated and a road win probability is inflated (though neither as significantly as an optimist or a pessimist, respectively, would believe). This last weekend I charted the Kenpom probability of each outcome for the remaining five home games and the remaining three road games. I charted them separatelely, because Xavier is not your typical team, as mentioned. I did not include the UC game, just conference games. Since we lost to Creighton (extremely low probability) and beat Providence (fairly high probability), the possible outcomes have been cut down:

Home:
3-0 (24.6%)
2-1 (47.8%)
1-2 (27.5%)

Road:
3-0 (22.5%)
2-1 (45.9%)
1-2 (27.0%)
0-3 (4.8%)

In conference, the most probable outcome is that Xavier loses one more home game and one more road game, and it's not even close enough to other outcomes for any (rational) optimist or pessimist to just dismiss that. Since they are not favored at UC (currently a 38% win probability), the most likely outcome is three more losses, or a 4-3 record (with a 5-2 record as second most probable, followed by 3-4). That's 19 wins, where Xavier is more likely to make the tournaent than not, but the "not" is significant. If they finish better than the most probable record, they are a virtual lock. If they finish worse than the most probable record, they are basically not in. With an SOS as strong as Xavier's, some prognostications (like Team Rankings) still give them a minor chance of an at-large bid with 18 wins, but the way this Committee has been trending lately, I doubt it.

Since starting 8-2, we are 7-7...we had a losing 6-7 record during that stretch before yesterday. I still don't see why the computers love us so much. Yes, we have 10 RPI top 100 wins, but they are all at home except Georgetown. I just think we are going to have one or two more huge "bad losses" @ Marquette and/or @ Creighton and we won't be able to make up the difference without a huge home win (Butler would be big, Nova would be huge), or winning @ St. John's or @ uc..., which I just don't see either of those happening. According to KenPom and RPI Forecast we are actually favored to win a lot of our road games including the ones at uc and St. John's. I just don't see us getting those.

I assume you were looking at KenPom having uc favored as RPI Forecast actually gives us a 51% chance to win @uc, which I don't see happening.

[XUFan09]

The computers still like us because of who we have played (RPI) and what the margins have been (Kenpom, Sagarin, etc.). That works both ways. Even if we had beat Creighton in OT, we would have dropped close to where we are in those latter metrics because the victory margin wasn't as good as previous history projected it to be.

RPI Forecast has a 51% win probability because it uses Sagarin, which views Xavier the same as Kenpom (#27) but views Cincinnati worse (#46 vs. #33). In retrospect, though, I probably shouldn't include Cincinnati under the same probability lens. That game is just too unpredictable, complete with all the clichés about throwing the records and stats out, etc.

[94GRAD]

Everyone that says we're no good obviously doesn't watch any basketball outside of the Big East.

[Titanxman04]

Since starting 8-2, we are 7-7...we had a losing 6-7 record during that stretch before yesterday. I still don't see why the computers love us so much. Yes, we have 10 RPI top 100 wins, but they are all at home except Georgetown. I just think we are going to have one or two more huge "bad losses" @ Marquette and/or @ Creighton and we won't be able to make up the difference without a huge home win (Butler would be big, Nova would be huge), or winning @ St. John's or @ uc..., which I just don't see either of those happening. According to KenPom and RPI Forecast we are actually favored to win a lot of our road games including the ones at uc and St. John's. I just don't see us getting those.

I assume you were looking at KenPom having uc favored as RPI Forecast actually gives us a 51% chance to win @uc, which I don't see happening.

You are the biggest pessimist on this board...period. You look for reasons to solidify your own belief that this team is terrible despite you saying you love and support this program. I haven't read a single supportive post from you...well, as long as I can remember. How can you support this program and just come on here and bash it constantly?

It's one thing to be realistic but my God, we just won a big game and you come back on here and piss and moan about how this team is awful. It's getting old.

[Titanxman04]

That's because you let your emotional attachment as a fan get in the way of a sound judgment. It's just as far off the mark as that optimist who thinks Xavier is going to run the table and go 7-0 or 6-1 after seeing that second half. Now, if you said that you could see us going 3-4 as easily as 5-2, then we're talking. That I agree with, and 18 wins wouldn't be enough.

This

[xu82]

You are the biggest pessimist on this board...period.


Them's some strong words, given the stiff competition!

[Titanxman04]

Them's some strong words, given the stiff competition!

Can we get a bracket going for it at least? I'll bet the farm on that clown.

Yup, I said it.

[Xfan5667]

xavier sucks no way they are making the tournament i think that dayton is going to win it all.m archie miller has an elite team #flyers

[mid major]

xavier sucks no way they are making the tournament i think that dayton is going to win it all.m archie miller has an elite team #flyers

Dayton is one St Loius loss away from being squarely on the wrong side of the bubble.

[MuskiePimp23]

You are the biggest pessimist on this board...period. You look for reasons to solidify your own belief that this team is terrible despite you saying you love and support this program. I haven't read a single supportive post from you...well, as long as I can remember. How can you support this program and just come on here and bash it constantly?

It's one thing to be realistic but my God, we just won a big game and you come back on here and piss and moan about how this team is awful. It's getting old.

We won a game we had to have. Go back and look at my post history, there are a lot of positive posts. When we play well, I will say that. We are not playing well. Some people on this board do not look at reality. We have 3 really bad losses and don't win on the road. Those are not NCAA tournament #'s.

[MuskiePimp23]

Can we get a bracket going for it at least? I'll bet the farm on that clown.

Yup, I said it.

Clown...Nice when people like yourself resort to name calling. You should get banned for that.

[Titanxman04]

Hahahahaha. MuskiePimp neg repped me. Says we're going to have 13-14 losses by seasons end and is upset that I called him a pessimist.

Buddy, if it walks like a duck and looks like a duck.....

You're on both boards complaining constantly. You WHINE too much! Your bit is old and tiresome. I said it on scout and I'll say it on here:

Those who do not accept logic, cannot be conquered by it. Well keep on being unconquered, friend.

Big Blue Nation is always looking for new people. Go sign up with them and rid us of your bit.

[Titanxman04]

Clown...Nice when people like yourself resort to name calling. You should get banned for that.

For calling someone a clown? You are though. You whine and shout and put on a big show.

Besides, people love clowns. My nieces say they love seeing clowns about the zoo. Now you're getting all negative on the clown business? Geez...

[MuskiePimp23]

Hahahahaha. MuskiePimp neg repped me. Says we're going to have 13-14 losses by seasons end and is upset that I called him a pessimist.

Buddy, if it walks like a duck and looks like a duck.....

You're on both boards complaining constantly. You WHINE too much! Your bit is old and tiresome. I said it on scout and I'll say it on here:

Those who do not accept logic, cannot be conquered by it. Well keep on being unconquered, friend.

Big Blue Nation is always looking for new people. Go sign up with them and rid us of your bit.

What logic are you looking at? Here is my logic. I expected this team to make the NCAA tourney and have a chance at a run. Once we lose @Marquette and/or Creighton, we have some serious work to make up ground and accomplish those goals. I don't see this team getting it done. You are looking at this team through your blue tinted glasses and completely over some of the NCAA killing losses we have had. If you watch this team, they certainly do not pass the "eye test" of an NCAA team, especially on the road with our 2-6 record. We lose @Marquette on Tuesday and we are done. I hate Kentucky and all those "illogical" people in their fanbase.

[Titanxman04]

What logic are you looking at? Here is my logic. I expected this team to make the NCAA tourney and have a chance at a run. Once we lose @Marquette and/or Creighton, we have some serious work to make up ground and accomplish those goals. I don't see this team getting it done. You are looking at this team through your blue tinted glasses and completely over some of the NCAA killing losses we have had. If you watch this team, they certainly do not pass the "eye test" of an NCAA team, especially on the road with our 2-6 record. We lose @Marquette on Tuesday and we are done.

My issue with you is that you automatically assume failure against the worst teams. There is no hope or reason for believing that we take those games and lose to Butler and Nova instead. That's my issue. No logic.

I don't think this team has competed at the highest level capable. However, I would doubt you'd meet any Xavier fan that would say so. Thing is, I dont' ASSUME we'll drop those games.

You don't watch other basketball teams. The bubble is HUGE. There are a lot of teams out there struggling too. Numbers show that we're up there. We're up there because not everyone is doing as well as UK. I want us to go to the tourny and it's still needs work to be done, but don't tell me we're automatically going to lose to the two worst teams on our schedule. Thats pessimism. Not logical.

[MuskiePimp23]

My issue with you is that you automatically assume failure against the worst teams. There is no hope or reason for believing that we take those games and lose to Butler and Nova instead. That's my issue. No logic.

I don't think this team has competed at the highest level capable. However, I would doubt you'd meet any Xavier fan that would say so. Thing is, I dont' ASSUME we'll drop those games.

You don't watch other basketball teams. The bubble is HUGE. There are a lot of teams out there struggling too. Numbers show that we're up there. We're up there because not everyone is doing as well as UK. I want us to go to the tourny and it's still needs work to be done, but don't tell me we're automatically going to lose to the two worst teams on our schedule. Thats pessimism. Not logical.

Let's win Tuesday @Marquette and I will have some more logic that maybe we can get it done. My point is what has this team done through 24 games to make you think they will all of a sudden start getting it done? I will not believe it until I see it. Every year with Xavier you can just see if/when this team gets it or not. I am hoping that the second half yesterday was the start of "getting it." If they go out and lose at Marquette or can't beat St. John's at home this week, then they obviously are not turning the corner. You believe because you have "faith". I will believe once I see this team getting it done, not winning @ Georgetown simply because we match up well with them. Other than that game, we honestly find ways to lose close and overtime games this season and almost all of the winnable road games. It is like we find ways to lose these games, so until we change that, I will not be optimistic and assume the worst.

I watch a lot of college basketball and realize the bubble is huge. I just think, we have more difficult schedule than most of these teams, which gives more "opportunities" and ones that we have not even come close to really capitalizing on to this point in the season. Since we haven't started capitalizing yet, I assume we won't until I see it happen.

[XU 87]

I watch a lot of college basketball

If that's the case, why do you have so many stupid posts? I guess you watch without understanding.

[danaandvictory]

In the last 15 minutes I have observed an ostensibly grown man throwing a public temper tantrum on two separate websites. My 2-year-old is more rational.

[xu82]

Titan has a special knack for making friends.

[XMuskieFTW]

What logic are you looking at? Here is my logic. I expected this team to make the NCAA tourney and have a chance at a run. Once we lose @Marquette and/or Creighton, we have some serious work to make up ground and accomplish those goals. I don't see this team getting it done. You are looking at this team through your blue tinted glasses and completely over some of the NCAA killing losses we have had. If you watch this team, they certainly do not pass the "eye test" of an NCAA team, especially on the road with our 2-6 record. We lose @Marquette on Tuesday and we are done. I hate Kentucky and all those "illogical" people in their fanbase.

I like your assumption of a loss at marquette and/or creighton. I don't believe those games have been played yet. Go spew your negativity elsewhere.

[Juice]

In the last 15 minutes I have observed an ostensibly grown man throwing a public temper tantrum on two separate websites. My 2-year-old is more rational.

I keep looking at the two boards and am simply amazed by him. And that's not in a good way.

[gladdenguy]

You know what's old and tiresome? Not playing 40 minutes of basketball.
It is completely understandable why Muskiepimp would assume they will lose at least one or both to Marquette and Creighton.

Is his opinion the same as yours Titan? No.

Does it have to be? No.

Maybe you should take your fat ass to the gym and quit worrying about Muskiepimps opinion. He has watched the inconsistency all year long. It's a message board. It is his opinion.

Not all of us need to read Xavier is still awesome after 1-9 Creighton whoops their ass on their homecourt.

[Masterofreality]

You know what's old and tiresome? Not playing 40 minutes of basketball.
It is completely understandable why Muskiepimp would assume they will lose at least one or both to Marquette and Creighton.

Is his opinion the same as yours Titan? No.

Does it have to be? No.

Maybe you should take your fat ass to the gym and quit worrying about Muskiepimps opinion. He has watched the inconsistency all year long. It's a message board. It is his opinion.

Not all of us need to read Xavier is still awesome after 1-9 Creighton whoops their ass on their homecourt.

For the record, Titan does not have a fat ass. He does coach a high school sport.

As you do, GG, he is entitled to his opinion. Eeeeeeeeeeeasy.

[Xavier]

Whopped some ass? Thought it went to OT. What do you consider a win in regulation is? Complete domination?

[Juice]

Whopped some ass? Thought it went to OT. What do you consider a win in regulation is? Complete domination?

Forget it, he's rolling...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI&t=0m21s

[Xaveriana]

Write this down and give me credit when it happens. Xavier will NOT lose another regular season game. Yes they will beat UC, Butler and Nova. I saw something in the 2nd half yesterday that leads me to this conclusion...toughness, care, and experience. Mack is learning how to coach this team. Also expect more Sean O.

[XUFan09]

Write this down and give me credit when it happens. Xavier will NOT lose another regular season game. Yes they will beat UC, Butler and Nova. I saw something in the 2nd half yesterday that leads me to this conclusion...toughness, care, and experience. Mack is learning how to coach this team. Also expect more Sean O.
Whoa...

[MuskiePimp23]

Write this down and give me credit when it happens. Xavier will NOT lose another regular season game. Yes they will beat UC, Butler and Nova. I saw something in the 2nd half yesterday that leads me to this conclusion...toughness, care, and experience. Mack is learning how to coach this team. Also expect more Sean O.

Beers around at Dana's on me if that happens.

[xudash]

Write this down and give me credit when it happens. Xavier will NOT lose another regular season game. Yes they will beat UC, Butler and Nova. I saw something in the 2nd half yesterday that leads me to this conclusion...toughness, care, and experience. Mack is learning how to coach this team. Also expect more Sean O.

I

LOVE

YOUR

ATTITUDE.

Wouldn't that be a helluva thing. I know it goes without saying, given the nature of your prediction, but we'll know a lot Tuesday night. I mean, get past a road game involving a team that just took out SHU on the road, and you may be onto something.

[MuskiePimp23]

You know what's old and tiresome? Not playing 40 minutes of basketball.
It is completely understandable why Muskiepimp would assume they will lose at least one or both to Marquette and Creighton.

Is his opinion the same as yours Titan? No.

Does it have to be? No.

Maybe you should take your fat ass to the gym and quit worrying about Muskiepimps opinion. He has watched the inconsistency all year long. It's a message board. It is his opinion.

Not all of us need to read Xavier is still awesome after 1-9 Creighton whoops their ass on their homecourt.

Thanks GG. Wish I could rep you, but it won't let me. It is a message board and yours and my opinions differ from most on here. I wish we can start putting together 40 minutes of basketball and put this inconsistency behind us.

[Titanxman04]

You know what's old and tiresome? Not playing 40 minutes of basketball.
It is completely understandable why Muskiepimp would assume they will lose at least one or both to Marquette and Creighton.

Is his opinion the same as yours Titan? No.

Does it have to be? No.

Maybe you should take your fat ass to the gym and quit worrying about Muskiepimps opinion. He has watched the inconsistency all year long. It's a message board. It is his opinion.

Not all of us need to read Xavier is still awesome after 1-9 Creighton whoops their ass on their homecourt.

Welcome to the game, GG. Glad to have you participate.

My fatass? Really? Thats the best you can come up with? I think it says a lot about the both of us right there.

1. I don't really care if you think I'm fat or not. My wife doesn't. She's the best thing in the world and if she doesn't care that I'm a little large, then why would I care if you do?

2. To clarify on MOR's post (and thanks for the support, bud), I used to coach a high school sport. My wife's successful and lucrative career has taken us to a different part of Ohio where I am int he process of building a lacrosse program out here.

3. My issue is not having a different opinion. This is the United freaking States of America, son. So I am allowed to voice my displeasure of his opinion just as others. My issue is that he alraedy chalks us up to losing to the two worst teams in the conference to end the season. WE have been inconsistent all year long. Not denying that. But simply saying "We're going to the NIT. We'll lose at Creighton and at Marquette and get destroyed all over..." C'mon, don't tell me you're a fan when you go about bashing everything in sight.

He's on the other board bashing Dee even though he had 15 freaking assists. If you're pessimistic about the season, that's fine. I've met you once or twice, GG. I've actually liked hanging out with you (believe it was at Dana's). And I know you're a passionate fan.

I don't think Pimp is. I think he's a guy that loves to bash the thing he says he loves without looking at some logical arguments. Thats my issue.

We're talking about firing people on this board like it's no big deal. It's freaking basketball guys...thats it! It's just basketball. I love X as much as anyone but at the end of the day, it's a game. It's a game played by kids who are trying to figure out this thing as much as anyone their age.

It's just a game.

If we don't make the tournament, I'll be frustrated, disappointed, and a bit annoyed. I don't think Mack should lose his job. I don't think we should kick players off the team. I don't think it's the end of the world. I'll just have to enjoy March Madness without rooting my X men on for a year. Sure is sucks when we lose, but this "fire Mack B.S." and "We freaking suck, we'll be lucky to make the NIT" talk is just going over-board.

For the record, I love my fat ass. I'm warmer in the winter.

4. G

[MuskiePimp23]

Welcome to the game, GG. Glad to have you participate.

My fatass? Really? Thats the best you can come up with? I think it says a lot about the both of us right there.

1. I don't really care if you think I'm fat or not. My wife doesn't. She's the best thing in the world and if she doesn't care that I'm a little large, then why would I care if you do?

2. To clarify on MOR's post (and thanks for the support, bud), I used to coach a high school sport. My wife's successful and lucrative career has taken us to a different part of Ohio where I am int he process of building a lacrosse program out here.

3. My issue is not having a different opinion. This is the United freaking States of America, son. So I am allowed to voice my displeasure of his opinion just as others. My issue is that he alraedy chalks us up to losing to the two worst teams in the conference to end the season. WE have been inconsistent all year long. Not denying that. But simply saying "We're going to the NIT. We'll lose at Creighton and at Marquette and get destroyed all over..." C'mon, don't tell me you're a fan when you go about bashing everything in sight.

He's on the other board bashing Dee even though he had 15 freaking assists. If you're pessimistic about the season, that's fine. I've met you once or twice, GG. I've actually liked hanging out with you (believe it was at Dana's). And I know you're a passionate fan.

I don't think Pimp is. I think he's a guy that loves to bash the thing he says he loves without looking at some logical arguments. Thats my issue.

We're talking about firing people on this board like it's no big deal. It's freaking basketball guys...thats it! It's just basketball. I love X as much as anyone but at the end of the day, it's a game. It's a game played by kids who are trying to figure out this thing as much as anyone their age.

It's just a game.

If we don't make the tournament, I'll be frustrated, disappointed, and a bit annoyed. I don't think Mack should lose his job. I don't think we should kick players off the team. I don't think it's the end of the world. I'll just have to enjoy March Madness without rooting my X men on for a year. Sure is sucks when we lose, but this "fire Mack B.S." and "We freaking suck, we'll be lucky to make the NIT" talk is just going over-board.

For the record, I love my fat ass. I'm warmer in the winter.

4. G

You nailed me spot on Titan. I don't like Xavier, that is why I have been on this board since it started and also pay for my subscription on the Scout board. I also have had season tickets for over 20 years and donate to the AFO.

There is nothing worse in college basketball than a team not playing to its potential because they are mentally soft and can't get out of their own way. That is what watching Xavier feels like this year especially and it is absolutely maddening to me. There is also no worse feeling when your #1 sports team isn't even there to cheer for in the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. I expected this program to be getting very close to a Final Four if not having already been there in Mack's 6th year then taking steps back.

Now I know this isn't all Mack's fault because of the administrations restrictions, otherwise a guy like Dez Wells would be leading this team and I have no doubt, that we would be much better at winning close games and our win/loss record would reflect that. That is not the case and Dez is doing his thing at Maryland, but I still expect better with the perceived talent that we have.

I think Mack's coaching is fair game to scrutinize. I have never said he should be fired, but for a guy making over $1 Million/year it isn't like he will be out begging for money if he were. His job also comes with scrutiny. That is part of the territory and he knows that.

[D-West & PO-Z]

You know what's old and tiresome? Not playing 40 minutes of basketball.
It is completely understandable why Muskiepimp would assume they will lose at least one or both to Marquette and Creighton.

Is his opinion the same as yours Titan? No.

Does it have to be? No.

Maybe you should take your fat ass to the gym and quit worrying about Muskiepimps opinion. He has watched the inconsistency all year long. It's a message board. It is his opinion.

Not all of us need to read Xavier is still awesome after 1-9 Creighton whoops their ass on their homecourt.

Slow your roll dude.

Your act is old and tiresome.

If you werent someone who several people on this board knew in real life as a big fan you wouldnt get half of the slack you get on this board.

You are some super passionate fan who mostly has nothing but pessimistic negative things to say, who apparently cant even watch some games because you cant even bear to watch. It's so dramatic.

You are like the friend everyone has to explain to other people who arent friends with you. "Yeah I know he is kind of an ass but he is our ass. You just have to know him."

Whatever man to each their own but you are no one to be calling out a poster like titan.

[XU 87]

MuskiePimp admitted on the Scout board that he's actually a UC and UD fan.

[xu82]

Did someone say free beer?

[X-band '01]

Can't be as old and tiresome as playing the Dez Wells and Fr. Graham cards after every bad loss on here.

[Titanxman04]

You nailed me spot on Titan. I don't like Xavier, that is why I have been on this board since it started and also pay for my subscription on the Scout board. I also have had season tickets for over 20 years and donate to the AFO.

There is nothing worse in college basketball than a team not playing to its potential because they are mentally soft and can't get out of their own way. That is what watching Xavier feels like this year especially and it is absolutely maddening to me. There is also no worse feeling when your #1 sports team isn't even there to cheer for in the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. I expected this program to be getting very close to a Final Four if not having already been there in Mack's 6th year then taking steps back.

Now I know this isn't all Mack's fault because of the administrations restrictions, otherwise a guy like Dez Wells would be leading this team and I have no doubt, that we would be much better at winning close games and our win/loss record would reflect that. That is not the case and Dez is doing his thing at Maryland, but I still expect better with the perceived talent that we have.

I think Mack's coaching is fair game to scrutinize. I have never said he should be fired, but for a guy making over $1 Million/year it isn't like he will be out begging for money if he were. His job also comes with scrutiny. That is part of the territory and he knows that.

See, here's a post that deals with some logic. I can respond to this rationally as opposed to something that you said that we "WILL" lose at Creighton and Marquette, before the game is even played, and then using THAT as the basis for your argument. I don't disagree that IF we drop those games, then yes, it will be very difficult to make a case. But that you've stated that it's a foregone conclusion, is where I don't really care to read the following sentences.

There is something worse in college basketball than a team not playing to its potential...

It's UC basketball, where your players all get arrested and don't graduate. That's worse to me. This team has a lot of moving parts. As a coach, you never coach the same way twice. Strange brought up the idea that Mack should get a T in the game against Creighton to fire his team up. I will argue that there's a time and a place for it. Overusing the same strategy, like getting a T to fire your team up, loses it's effect over time. Mack knows better than us as to when to do that and when it's most effective.

There is no worse feelingt hat when your #1 sports team isn't even there to cheer for in the 2nd round...

I agree that it's disappointing. Buddy, I love X as much as anyone. It's disappointing, but I guess maybe because I didn't grow up with X or something, that I simply have learned to enjoy March Madness for what it is. It is a terrific sporting event, and while I want Xavier to be in it as long as possible, they are only one team, and I am in the mind frame that I won't let Xavier's absence from the dance affect how I enjoy it. Does X's presence increase the awesomeness that is March Madness? You bet your pimpin' ass it does! But there are over 250 teams every year who stay home and watch it. I consider ourselves blessed to have the expectations to go dancing every season. I consider ourselves blessed when we do make the dance. And I consider ourselves, as a fanbase, blessed when we win some games.

Mack's coaching...

Perhaps it wasn't you who said it. Perhaps you've had some feeling in it. I know on the scout board you've mentioned many times that you'd prefer Mack gone and you don't like him as coach, so am I missing something? A coach's position is certainly up from scrutiny, but I think some on this board and the scout board go a bit too far sometimes too.

So X doesn't come out with enough energy...and it's on Mack? Don't these kids know what is expected of their play and energy? If they need to look for a 40+ year old man for energy, isn't that saying something about the players themselves? Does THAT then turn on Mack as to he recruited them? X has the highest SOS ever as a program. Better than Miller, better than Matter... They don't play in the A-10 anymore. The Big East is a LOT better than last year. We have 6 new moving parts. As a team, everyone reacts to bumps in the road (no pun intended) differently. As a unit, they react differently each year. Would I like them to figure it out by now? ABSOLUTELY. But I accept it as part of kids growing up on a bigger stage.

[Titanxman04]

Oh, and to my good friend, GG...

To touch upon the "fat ass" bit you rolled on me, way to point out the obvious.

You wrote it as if I'd go int he mirror and scream in terror as the truth was suddenly revealed to me in your blunt statement.

Writing something like that tells me two things about you.

1. You lack creativity. C'mon man, if you're going to throw a hay-maker, lets make it something to remember.

2. You need a hug. I'm here man. Let's meet at Dana's, my tubby self will buy you a beer or six, and we'll make up. Of course, once you're passed out I can't promise I won't charge it to your tab.... but let's cross that bridge when we get there, eh?

[paulxu]

MuskiePimp admitted on the Scout board that he's actually a UC and UD fan.

This would explain a lot.

[boozehound]

Let's all just calm down on the personal attacks here. They are adding nothing to the basketball discussion, and I would imagine all would get along just fine if we were at Dana's having a beer before a game. We are all fans here, some just handle the adversity differently than others.

Hopefully we can finish the season on a roll and everybody can be friends again. It's a tall order, but we have shown the ability to play great ball, albeit not consistently.

[RealDeal]

MuskiePimp admitted on the Scout board that he's actually a UC and UD fan.

Not a surprise.

[Titanxman04]

Let's all just calm down on the personal attacks here. They are adding nothing to the basketball discussion, and I would imagine all would get along just fine if we were at Dana's having a beer before a game. We are all fans here, some just handle the adversity differently than others.

Hopefully we can finish the season on a roll and everybody can be friends again. It's a tall order, but we have shown the ability to play great ball, albeit not consistently.

I won't man. I'm an instigator. I light fires to watch them burn, man.

But yes, your overall sentiment works for me. Can't we all be friends and help a fatass like myself get drunk?

[Muskie]

Kudos to everyone ruining a completely good thread when your asinine personal attacks.