Top NBA Prospects in Big East (DX article - Jalen #9)

[mistabeecee41]

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Top-NBA-Prospects-in-the-Big-East-Part-2-Prospects-6-10-4733

Fairly spot on comparison. I personally think his jump shot is better than they seem to think. Age is definitely an issue though.

[PMI]

Eh, I think it's very, very off. DSR at #5? Eight better NBA prospects in the Big East? I wouldn't be surprised if Jalen were considered hands down the best NBA prospect by the end of this season, honestly. I understand that he's all potential over production at this point, but that's what being a prospect is about. DSR has no chance of leaving early. As soon as Jalen puts it together, he's first round good. I believe that happens this season.

[Milhouse]

Age will by far be his biggest detractor. If he doesn't go this year I don't see him getting drafted. But still good chance he plays at least a game in the NBA at some point.

[PMI]

I agree age is his biggest detractor, but I don't think it's going to be that big of one if and when his game comes together. The tools are all there and his role is about to be much bigger. Those who don't know will soon.

[casualfan]

Eh, I think it's very, very off. DSR at #5? Eight better NBA prospects in the Big East? I wouldn't be surprised if Jalen were considered hands down the best NBA prospect by the end of this season, honestly. I understand that he's all potential over production at this point, but that's what being a prospect is about. DSR has no chance of leaving early. As soon as Jalen puts it together, he's first round good. I believe that happens this season.

I don't disagree with the idea that the list is off, but I'm not sure I feel as strongly about Jalen's NBA prospects as you do.

The main reason being that I'm just not sure what his position will be in the league.

He's somewhere in the 6 '9 to 6 '10 range which is by no means small, but there aren't many teams starting guys that size who can't do other things (i.e. play facing the basket, take their man out to the perimeter, etc.).

The true back to the basket centers (i.e. Dwight, Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, etc.) are all bigger than Jalen. Hell a lot of the best PFs in the league are bigger than Jalen.

That's not to say he can't have a long and successful career, it's just that I'm not sure he's a sure fire first round pick unless he vastly improves his ability to space the floor.

If you go back and look at last years draft there were 10 big guys (PF/C) drafted in the first round.

Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Noah Vonleh
Dario Saric
Adreian Payne
Jusuf Nurkic
Mitch McGary
Clint Capela
Kyle Anderson

(I left Huestis off the list because he really shouldn't have been a first rounder. The Thunder only took him because of their cap situation and his willingness to agree to go straight to the d-league).

I don't pretend to know anything about Saric, Nurkic or Capella, but of the other guys on the list most all of them has excellent ball skills away from the basket.

Now that was obviously a great draft class, but again I think sometimes it's hard to put in perspective how hard it is to be a 1st round pick, especially as a big guy in this day and age.

[Juice]

When I think of Jalen's size, age, and abilities I think of Taj Gibson. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gibsota01.html

Taj was 24 his first year in the league and is also 6'9''. He didn't wow many people with a crazy offensive game. I also think Jalen is more athletic.

[PMI]

I don't disagree with the idea that the list is off, but I'm not sure I feel as strongly about Jalen's NBA prospects as you do.

The main reason being that I'm just not sure what his position will be in the league.

He's somewhere in the 6 '9 to 6 '10 range which is by no means small, but there aren't many teams starting guys that size who can't do other things (i.e. play facing the basket, take their man out to the perimeter, etc.).

The true back to the basket centers (i.e. Dwight, Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, etc.) are all bigger than Jalen. Hell a lot of the best PFs in the league are bigger than Jalen.

That's not to say he can't have a long and successful career, it's just that I'm not sure he's a sure fire first round pick unless he vastly improves his ability to space the floor.

If you go back and look at last years draft there were 10 big guys (PF/C) drafted in the first round.

Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Noah Vonleh
Dario Saric
Adreian Payne
Jusuf Nurkic
Mitch McGary
Clint Capela
Kyle Anderson

(I left Huestis off the list because he really shouldn't have been a first rounder. The Thunder only took him because of their cap situation and his willingness to agree to go straight to the d-league).

I don't pretend to know anything about Saric, Nurkic or Capella, but of the other guys on the list most all of them has excellent ball skills away from the basket.

Now that was obviously a great draft class, but again I think sometimes it's hard to put in perspective how hard it is to be a 1st round pick, especially as a big guy in this day and age.

Good info, and you make a lot of good points. I should probably clarify the difference between A.) what we have seen and what's commonly expected to be seen of Jalen, and B.) what I personally believe he is/will be. First off, I think Jalen will be a PF at the next level. I think he is the right size for it, even if ideally another inch or so would benefit him. You mention spacing the floor, and I think that's where we will see his biggest strides made this year. I believe that he will prove to be a matchup nightmare in the Big East because I expect him to have a consistently solid shot to go along with his physicality in the paint. I think he will show more than enough potential to teams that he can be a PF who can keep you honest out to the perimeter. I think his footwork is better than what we saw in many spurts last year too, and I think that he will be a capable defender and good rebounder at the next level. While he isn't the youngest prospect by any means, he is fully developed and still athletic as hell. His biggest obstacle this year I think will be cutting down his fouls (significantly) in order to stay on the floor and be the kind of defensive force we will need down low to offset the limitations that Stainbrook and Farr have on that end of the floor, and I think we'll see that to a large extent. By the end of last season, he looked so much more fluid on his feet and comfortable on the floor, and I expect that to continue to progress. I may be in the minority in thinking that there's a very good possibility this is Jalen's final year at Xavier, but I think it's very possible. I expect him to be an All Big East type of guy and open a lot of eyes. I realize these are lofty expectations that are based almost entirely on potential, but I'm calling for it.

[sirthought]

I am expecting Jalen to put it all together this year. That said, for him to be drafted he has to really improve on all the little things, as well as become more of a dominant scorer. I expect him to push the issue on scoring this season. But the other stuff...well if he does get there, then this team should be contenders.

I think his knowledge of the game and the execution weren't really going at the same pace last season.

Guys like Danny Fortson and Jason Maxielle (both smaller than Jalen) weren't the most prolific scorers, but in college they dominated as they progressed through school. But they mostly were drafted for defense and rebounding.

[casualfan]

I am expecting Jalen to put it all together this year. That said, for him to be drafted he has to really improve on all the little things, as well as become more of a dominant scorer. I expect him to push the issue on scoring this season. But the other stuff...well if he does get there, then this team should be contenders.

I think his knowledge of the game and the execution weren't really going at the same pace last season.

Guys like Danny Fortson and Jason Maxielle (both smaller than Jalen) weren't the most prolific scorers, but in college they dominated as they progressed through school. But they mostly were drafted for defense and rebounding.

You got that Fortson comment all backwards my man. He was a dominant low post scorer, but couldn't defend a lick. He was top 10 in scoring his junior year at 21.3 per game.

As for Maxiell he was drafted 26th overall in an NBA that is much different than the one you see now.

I personally don't think either is a particularly good comparison for Jalen. They were both drafted a long time ago into a league that was much different than the NBA is now and more importantly I don't think either is a similar type of player to Jalen.

[casualfan]

Good info, and you make a lot of good points. I should probably clarify the difference between A.) what we have seen and what's commonly expected to be seen of Jalen, and B.) what I personally believe he is/will be. First off, I think Jalen will be a PF at the next level. I think he is the right size for it, even if ideally another inch or so would benefit him. You mention spacing the floor, and I think that's where we will see his biggest strides made this year. I believe that he will prove to be a matchup nightmare in the Big East because I expect him to have a consistently solid shot to go along with his physicality in the paint. I think he will show more than enough potential to teams that he can be a PF who can keep you honest out to the perimeter. I think his footwork is better than what we saw in many spurts last year too, and I think that he will be a capable defender and good rebounder at the next level. While he isn't the youngest prospect by any means, he is fully developed and still athletic as hell. His biggest obstacle this year I think will be cutting down his fouls (significantly) in order to stay on the floor and be the kind of defensive force we will need down low to offset the limitations that Stainbrook and Farr have on that end of the floor, and I think we'll see that to a large extent. By the end of last season, he looked so much more fluid on his feet and comfortable on the floor, and I expect that to continue to progress. I may be in the minority in thinking that there's a very good possibility this is Jalen's final year at Xavier, but I think it's very possible. I expect him to be an All Big East type of guy and open a lot of eyes. I realize these are lofty expectations that are based almost entirely on potential, but I'm calling for it.

I hope you're right because in my mind every time I imagine an offensive possession involving him catching the ball outside the paint, facing up, and then driving it ends in a turnover or a charge.

I just hope he doesn't get caught between helping the team (staying in the post and doing work) and trying to improve his stock (playing out on the floor more).

There's no doubt in my mind that he could stay in the post and absolutely dominate the college game. There's also no doubt in my mind that doing so would do next to nothing for his draft stock.

Ah the goofy world we live in. Can't wait for the season to start so we can see how it plays out.

[PMI]

Yea, I definitely think he can dominate in the paint in the Big East, and I think we will see plenty of that. I just think that when the defense packs it in down low and dares him to knock down a mid range shot or make the right move/pass, he will do it. By no means do I want him falling in love with the perimeter ala James Farr at times, but I think his touch and ability to put the ball on the floor will show to be night and day better as he will be very comfortable on the floor. I know it's an aggressive opinion, but I think Jalen is really special and will take a gigantic leap forward the season, the likes of which will drop some jaws. Prove me right, big guy!

[sirthought]

You got that Fortson comment all backwards my man. He was a dominant low post scorer, but couldn't defend a lick. He was top 10 in scoring his junior year at 21.3 per game.

As for Maxiell he was drafted 26th overall in an NBA that is much different than the one you see now.

I personally don't think either is a particularly good comparison for Jalen. They were both drafted a long time ago into a league that was much different than the NBA is now and more importantly I don't think either is a similar type of player to Jalen.

I don't disagree with that.

What I meant was neither was a prolific scorer in the NBA, but both were counted on for defense and rebounding. (Fortson did figure out how to defend quite well in the NBA. And it did take him a bit to become that great scorer in college.)

I don't think the NBA is so different that guys with those abilities are not valued. It is becoming a game where skill sets need to be more well rounded, but Jalen sure could look at those two as examples of how to make the NBA when you aren't the biggest big man.

[Chalmers0]

I think Jalen could be similar to Adreian Payne in terms of NBA stock (although I don't expect Jalen to have quite the outside game Payne did at the end of his career).

Payne went late first round at age 23 (I believe) and I could see Jalen potentially doing the same if he did stay for his junior year. However, I still think (and this is probably being entirely too optimistic) that he explodes and leaves after this year.

The Brewster coach has also compared him to Thomas Robinson but I'm not going to get that carried away yet.

[Cheesehead]

I saw Jalen in the cafeteria last Sunday. He as dominating the hell out of the cafeteria.

[bobbiemcgee]

He's been consistently inconsistent. Double/double then no show. Hopefully we are getting the double/double average guy this year. Everyone agrees he has the tools. Just do it, baby!

[Milhouse]

Last year he didn't have as many opportunities. This year its nothing but. People expecting him to average a double double are nuts though. It's ridiculously hard to do in the BE and not to mention he will have one of the Best rebounders in the BE next to him in Stain.

I fully expect X to dominate rebound margin in nearly every game.