Odds to Win Midwest Region

[GoMuskies]

Odds to win Midwest Region
Louisville 8/5
Duke 7/2
Wichita State 4/1
Michigan 11/2
Kentucky 12/1
Saint Louis 20/1
Tennessee 25/1
Iowa 25/1
Texas 33/1
Kansas State 33/1
UMass 40/1
Arizona State 50/1
NC State 66/1
Xavier 66/1
Manhattan 75/1
Mercer 100/1
Wofford 100/1
Cal Poly 200/1
Texas Southern 200/1

[GoMuskies]

Here are "true odds" to reach each round based on Sagaring Predictor. Sorry the formatting sucks, but it's easy enough to figure out if you just count rows to the right for the relevant percentages. According to this, Xavier's true odds of reaching the Final Four are about 200-1.

South Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Championship Game National Champion
1-Florida 100.000% 98.565% 70.368% 48.215% 29.577% 17.761% 8.914%
16-Albany-NY 57.143% 0.974% 0.068% 0.004% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
16-Mount St. Mary's 42.857% 0.461% 0.023% 0.001% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
8-Colorado 100.000% 28.017% 4.699% 1.466% 0.361% 0.084% 0.014%
9-Pittsburgh 100.000% 71.983% 24.842% 13.130% 5.924% 2.585% 0.891%
4-UCLA 100.000% 81.700% 51.136% 21.770% 10.500% 4.911% 1.834%
13-Tulsa 100.000% 18.300% 5.424% 0.789% 0.141% 0.024% 0.003%
5-VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 100.000% 79.846% 39.201% 14.103% 5.840% 2.331% 0.726%
12-Stephen F. Austin 100.000% 20.154% 4.239% 0.521% 0.079% 0.011% 0.001%
2-Kansas 100.000% 96.019% 70.990% 45.180% 25.072% 14.196% 6.640%
15-Eastern Kentucky 100.000% 3.981% 0.530% 0.047% 0.003% 0.000% 0.000%
7-New Mexico 100.000% 51.373% 14.907% 5.932% 1.902% 0.624% 0.156%
10-Stanford 100.000% 48.627% 13.574% 5.228% 1.614% 0.510% 0.122%
3-Syracuse 100.000% 87.951% 41.996% 17.390% 6.900% 2.801% 0.888%
14-Western Michigan 100.000% 12.049% 1.470% 0.135% 0.011% 0.001% 0.000%
6-Ohio State 100.000% 77.560% 48.691% 24.253% 11.675% 5.743% 2.275%
11-Dayton 100.000% 22.440% 7.843% 1.835% 0.400% 0.089% 0.015%
. . . . . . . .
East Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Championship Game National Champion
1-Virginia 100.000% 98.792% 76.113% 44.630% 25.474% 13.424% 5.989%
16-Coastal Carolina 100.000% 1.208% 0.079% 0.002% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
8-Memphis 100.000% 54.152% 13.669% 4.466% 1.386% 0.376% 0.080%
9-George Washington 100.000% 45.848% 10.139% 2.956% 0.814% 0.195% 0.036%
4-Michigan State 100.000% 91.876% 63.731% 35.104% 19.547% 10.024% 4.335%
13-Delaware 100.000% 8.124% 1.529% 0.178% 0.020% 0.002% 0.000%
5-Cincinnati 100.000% 57.529% 21.569% 8.410% 3.301% 1.155% 0.325%
12-Harvard 100.000% 42.471% 13.170% 4.253% 1.377% 0.392% 0.088%
2-Villanova 100.000% 96.779% 69.055% 44.073% 24.509% 13.037% 5.879%
15-Milwaukee 100.000% 3.221% 0.346% 0.027% 0.001% 0.000% 0.000%
7-Connecticut 100.000% 68.194% 24.093% 11.466% 4.494% 1.654% 0.492%
10-Saint Joseph's-Pa. 100.000% 31.806% 6.506% 1.969% 0.457% 0.097% 0.016%
3-Iowa State 100.000% 85.282% 56.056% 27.829% 13.634% 6.345% 2.457%
14-NC Central 100.000% 14.718% 3.868% 0.601% 0.090% 0.012% 0.001%
6-North Carolina 100.000% 60.434% 26.480% 10.102% 3.783% 1.327% 0.374%
11-Providence 100.000% 39.566% 13.596% 3.934% 1.111% 0.290% 0.059%
. . . . . . . .
West Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Championship Game National Champion
1-Arizona 100.000% 98.629% 70.862% 57.334% 41.457% 25.461% 17.055%
16-Weber State 100.000% 1.371% 0.074% 0.008% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
8-Gonzaga 100.000% 40.211% 9.731% 5.488% 2.477% 0.849% 0.331%
9-Oklahoma State 100.000% 59.789% 19.334% 12.691% 6.950% 3.008% 1.461%
4-San Diego State 100.000% 77.294% 45.321% 12.728% 5.581% 1.849% 0.698%
13-New Mexico State 100.000% 22.706% 6.958% 0.676% 0.128% 0.016% 0.002%
5-Oklahoma 100.000% 71.551% 38.426% 9.987% 4.127% 1.275% 0.450%
12-North Dakota State 100.000% 28.449% 9.295% 1.088% 0.239% 0.036% 0.006%
2-Wisconsin 100.000% 90.871% 61.228% 34.575% 14.932% 6.452% 3.129%
15-American U. 100.000% 9.129% 1.746% 0.233% 0.019% 0.001% 0.000%
7-Oregon 100.000% 59.522% 24.061% 10.317% 3.174% 0.969% 0.338%
10-BYU 100.000% 40.478% 12.965% 4.418% 1.034% 0.238% 0.063%
3-Creighton 100.000% 91.485% 63.456% 36.557% 16.012% 7.019% 3.450%
14-Louisiana-Lafayette 100.000% 8.515% 1.697% 0.220% 0.017% 0.001% 0.000%
6-Baylor 100.000% 64.279% 25.207% 10.812% 3.288% 0.992% 0.343%
11-Nebraska 100.000% 35.721% 9.640% 2.867% 0.566% 0.109% 0.025%
. . . . . . . .
Midwest Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Championship Game National Champion
1-Wichita State 100.000% 95.492% 53.794% 18.247% 8.553% 3.407% 1.467%
16-Cal Poly-SLO 69.205% 3.935% 0.323% 0.012% 0.001% 0.000% 0.000%
16-Texas Southern 30.795% 0.573% 0.017% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
8-Kentucky 100.000% 66.097% 33.806% 11.218% 5.159% 2.013% 0.849%
9-Kansas State 100.000% 33.903% 12.059% 2.548% 0.781% 0.196% 0.053%
4-Louisville 100.000% 93.934% 81.924% 62.106% 44.081% 28.126% 19.036%
13-Manhattan 100.000% 6.066% 2.087% 0.424% 0.071% 0.009% 0.001%
5-Saint Louis 100.000% 55.828% 9.498% 3.346% 1.014% 0.251% 0.068%
12-NC State 35.355% 12.280% 1.186% 0.263% 0.049% 0.007% 0.001%
12-Xavier-Ohio 64.645% 31.891% 5.305% 1.836% 0.546% 0.133% 0.035%
2-Michigan 100.000% 97.264% 68.609% 35.614% 14.801% 6.641% 3.211%
15-Wofford 100.000% 2.736% 0.229% 0.008% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
7-Texas 100.000% 48.117% 14.594% 4.513% 1.044% 0.265% 0.073%
10-Arizona State 100.000% 51.883% 16.568% 5.392% 1.319% 0.354% 0.103%
3-Duke 100.000% 89.131% 56.214% 33.666% 15.091% 7.279% 3.775%
14-Mercer 100.000% 10.869% 2.135% 0.370% 0.038% 0.004% 0.001%
6-Massachusetts 100.000% 28.370% 7.738% 2.424% 0.490% 0.109% 0.026%
11-Iowa 57.336% 42.610% 21.366% 11.912% 4.866% 2.147% 1.022%
11-Tennessee 42.664% 29.020% 12.547% 6.102% 2.097% 0.783% 0.316%

[paulxu]

12-Xavier-Ohio 64.645% 31.891% 5.305% 1.836% 0.546% 0.133% 0.035%

So you're saying there IS a chance we'll be in the FF.

[GoMuskies]

So you're saying there IS a chance we'll be in the FF.

Yeah. And if we played the Tournament a mere 2,857 times, Sagarin thinks we'd win once.

[paulxu]

Yeah. And if we played the Tournament a mere 2,857 times, Sagarin thinks we'd win once.

Well, that's only 1/3 of your post total...so I say let's get it out of the way this year.

[Kahns Krazy]

I wish the formatting on that were better. I might have to bring those numbers into excel to do a little number crunching on my brackets.

[GoMuskies]

I wish the formatting on that were better. I might have to bring those numbers into excel to do a little number crunching on my brackets.

Here's the source. Better there.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2755&t=12743473

[blueblob06]

Odds to win Midwest Region
Louisville 8/5
Duke 7/2
Wichita State 4/1
Michigan 11/2
Kentucky 12/1
Saint Louis 20/1
Tennessee 25/1
Iowa 25/1
Texas 33/1
Kansas State 33/1
UMass 40/1
Arizona State 50/1
NC State 66/1
Xavier 66/1
Manhattan 75/1
Mercer 100/1
Wofford 100/1
Cal Poly 200/1
Texas Southern 200/1

Has to be very, very rare for neither of the top 2 seeds to be in the top 2 odds to win the region. I'm fine with it playing out that way, assuming Xavier is the one winning the region.

[Filthy Conservative]

I wish the formatting on that were better. I might have to bring those numbers into excel to do a little number crunching on my brackets.

Bean counters and spreadsheets..blah, blah, blah.

Sent from my M886 using Tapatalk 2

[waggy]

Those percentages basically confirm that X should've been at least an 11 seed. Of course they are Sagarin numbers, and have no official standing with the NCAA.

[xu82]

Yeah. And if we played the Tournament a mere 2,857 times, Sagarin thinks we'd win once.

Well, can we just start with what i would presume to be the 2,857th outcome? That would save a lot of time.