Rooting Interest: 3/15/14

[Retire33]

Sadly I missed yesterday for multiple reasons. Just a few big stealers left out there and a chance for an X opponent to make resume look that much better.

Rooting Interest for 3/15/14

(All games EST)
Bubble Teams
Teams possibly on X Seed line
Teams that can improve Xavier Profile
Conference Championship
Big East Game



Visting Team
Home Team
Time (EST)
Channel


Tulsa (Bid stealer?)
Louisiana Tech
11:30am
CBS


Tennessee
Florida
1pm
ABC


St. Bonaventure (Bid Stealer!)
St. Joseph's
1:30pm
CBS Sports Network


NC State (Bid Stealer!)
Duke
3pm
ESPN


Georgia (Bid Stealer!)
Kentucky
3pm
ABC


Providence (Bid Stealer?)
Creighton
8:30pm
Fox Sports 1


Baylor
Iowa State
9pm
ESPN

[THRILLHOUSE]

X is nowhere near Baylor seeding wise. With Baylor catching fire at the end of the year they are probably a 7 seed right now, could move up to a 5 or 6 seed with a win tonight.

[XUFan09]

I don't think Providence is a bid stealer, but I think Xavier could take their place in the play-in game if they beat Creighton.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Go Creighton, Kentucky, Duke, and St. Joes!

[xsteve1]

The only bid St. Bonny would steal is an A10 bid (Dump). No way in hell does the A10 get 7.

[The_Mack_Pack]

The only bid St. Bonny would steal is an A10 bid (Dump). No way in hell does the A10 get 7.

It would probably be Dayton's bid which would be awesome but then we'd probably get pushed back to the play-in game which isn't as awesome.

[Retire33]

X is nowhere near Baylor seeding wise. With Baylor catching fire at the end of the year they are probably a 7 seed right now, could move up to a 5 or 6 seed with a win tonight.

I agree just did it because they are some others that don't.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X is not going to be in the play in game. That honor will go to SMU, St. joes, St Bonnie's after they win the whole thing and BYU. Well I doubt they put two A-10 teams in Dayton but the way the A-10 is playing as of late they should just let the 6 teams play their way in.

[GoMuskies]

St. Bonny cannot play in the play-in game. Auto bid winners are exempt.

[xsteve1]

St. Bonny cannot play in the play-in game. Auto bid winners are exempt.

That rule needs to be changed.

[paulxu]

4 auto bids played in the play-in games last year. (I think)

[GoMuskies]

4 auto bids played in the play-in games last year. (I think)

That's just for the four worst 16 seeds. Totally different. The play-in games we're talking about are for the last four at-large teams.

[THRILLHOUSE]

4 auto bids played in the play-in games last year. (I think)

Those 4 were the ones playing for the 2 open 16 seeds.

This is the set up for the "First Four": The final four at-large teams and final four automatic qualifiers meet for the right to enter the traditional 64-team draw. (source - http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5374116)

[paulxu]

That's just for the four worst 16 seeds. Totally different. The play-in games we're talking about are for the last four at-large teams.

If the automatic qualifier from two conferences play each other in Dayton for the chance to get into the field of 64, that sounds a lot like a play-in game to me. The "automatic qualifier" part of their designation did not automatically qualify them into the field of 64.

[GoMuskies]

Well, paul, if you think St. Bonny will be a 16 seed if they win the A-10, then you've got a point. Otherewise, they'll be exempt from going to Dayton.

[xubrew]

We want Florida to win, BTW.

[GoMuskies]

We want Florida to win, BTW.

I'm ok with Tennessee winning to help out our profile a bit. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Shockers as the overall #1 seed.

[xubrew]

I'm ok with Tennessee winning to help out our profile a bit. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Shockers as the overall #1 seed.

Florida is solidly in. Tennessee isn't. You don't want teams that aren't solidly in helping their case any.

We beat Tennessee at home. Tennessee only won four true road games, so it's that good of a win. They beat us on a neutral floor, so they kind of won the head to head part of it already. If they get a win like this on a neutral floor, the committee will probably favor them more than us.

[GoMuskies]

Tennessee and Xavier are both solidly in.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Florida is solidly in. Tennessee isn't. You don't want teams that aren't solidly in helping their case any.

We beat Tennessee at home. Tennessee only won four true road games, so it's that good of a win. They beat us on a neutral floor, so they kind of won the head to head part of it already. If they get a win like this on a neutral floor, the committee will probably favor them more than us.

I agree with this. Tennessee is probably in regardless but on the same seed line, so it would be better if Florida can hang on.

[xubrew]

I really don't think either of them are in right now, but I guess we'll see tomorrow.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I really don't think either of them are in right now, but I guess we'll see tomorrow.

I think both are in, but one (or both) might be playing in Dayton.

[Masterofreality]

Tennessee is in. What we don't want is for Georgia to win.

[paulxu]

Well, paul, if you think St. Bonny will be a 16 seed if they win the A-10, then you've got a point. Otherewise, they'll be exempt from going to Dayton.

I wasn't being a smart ass. It just really seems to me that if you are your conference's automatic qualifier, then playing in those Dayton games to get a slot in the 64 sort of means you didn't automatically qualify for the field. I've probably got a blind spot on this.

[THRILLHOUSE]

The refs have been brutal down the stretch in this FLA-TENN game.

But definitely a flagrant 1 on Tennessee and a really dumb one at that moment.

[xubrew]

I think both are in, but one (or both) might be playing in Dayton.

Obviously everyone, including myself, is just guessing.

But, Xavier and Tennessee both have significantly fewer road wins and road games played than any team that was on the #10, #11 or #12 line last year. If you look at the teams the committee took last year vs the ones that they didn't, we look a lot more like the ones that they didn't. We look more like Iowa, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee than we do Middle Tennessee, La Salle, or Saint Mary's.

Also, when you see both Bucknell and Belmont on the #11 line last year, which was two lines higher than the last at-large team, it makes you believe that they would have taken both of them anyway even if they lost in their conference tournament, and the only thing I can figure is the sheer number of games they played and won away from home. Even though they played weak schedules, it seems as htough the committee has valued weak road wins over no road wins in recent years. That's why I think they may take a team like this year's Belmont or Green Bay teams. (moreso Belmont than Green Bay).

That's my concern, but I'm just guessing. So, we'll see. It's pointless to argue.

[Xavier]

I think both are in, but I don't want them to jump us (if they haven't already) and push us to the play in game.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Obviously everyone, including myself, is just guessing.

But, Xavier and Tennessee both have significantly fewer road wins and road games played than any team that was on the #10, #11 or #12 line last year. If you look at the teams the committee took last year vs the ones that they didn't, we look a lot more like the ones that they didn't. We look more like Iowa, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee than we do Middle Tennessee, La Salle, or Saint Mary's.

Also, when you see both Bucknell and Belmont on the #11 line last year, which was two lines higher than the last at-large team, it makes you believe that they would have taken both of them even if they lost in their conference tournament, and the only thing I can figure is the sheer number of games they played and won away from home. Even though they played weak schedules, it seems as htough the committee has valued weak road wins over no road wins in recent years.

That's my concern, but I'm just guessing. So, we'll see. It's pointless to argue.

I don't disagree with your line of thinking at all. Up to this point there really haven't been any bid stealers which is why I think X and Tennessee are safe at the moment. Now if NC State, Georgia and St. Bonaventure (and to a lesser extent Providence) win, then things obviously change.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Every year is different. Compare the other bubble teams this year to us. Don't compare last years bubble teams to us.

[Masterofreality]

Obviously everyone, including myself, is just guessing.

But, Xavier and Tennessee both have significantly fewer road wins and road games played than any team that was on the #10, #11 or #12 line last year. If you look at the teams the committee took last year vs the ones that they didn't, we look a lot more like the ones that they didn't. We look more like Iowa, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee than we do Middle Tennessee, La Salle, or Saint Mary's.

Also, when you see both Bucknell and Belmont on the #11 line last year, which was two lines higher than the last at-large team, it makes you believe that they would have taken both of them even if they lost in their conference tournament, and the only thing I can figure is the sheer number of games they played and won away from home. Even though they played weak schedules, it seems as htough the committee has valued weak road wins over no road wins in recent years.

That's my concern, but I'm just guessing. So, we'll see. It's pointless to argue.

I know that you are really focused on road wins, Brew, but the overall Schedule Strength is more important. You can go on the road and play horrible teams and they are road wins, but they kill your SOS. That's what happens in the A10 and a lot of other Top heavy leagues.

Xavier's overall SOS is 21. Tennessee's is 30. udump's is 64 and St. Joes is 61...absolutely because of what I pointed out here.

[Masterofreality]

St. Joes is killing Bona right now by 15 with about 6 to go.

[xu82]

I know that you are really focused on road wins, Brew, but the overall Schedule Strength is more important. You can go on the road and play horrible teams and they are road wins, but they kill your SOS. That's what happens in the A10 and a lot of other Top heavy leagues.

Xavier's overall SOS is 21. Tennessee's is 30. udump's is 64 and St. Joes is 61...absolutely because of what I pointed out here.

I keep getting swayed by people arguing either side. The SOS point is a very good one (and our 21 surprised me a bit), which makes me feel better. I may have to stop checking here for a day to avoid having someone ruin my mood with a lucid and convincing rebuttal.

[XUFan09]

For the bubble teams, non-conference SOS, conference record, and road/neutral record have a disproportionate influence. Xavier is decent, not great, on two of those criteria and moderately poor on the other. That's enough to be concerned about being relegated to the play-in game. I think Xavier will finish just above that, but it will be close. Definitely rooting for Creighton tonight.

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[xu82]

For the bubble teams, non-conference SOS, conference record, and road/neutral record have a disproportionate influence. Xavier is decent, not great, on two of those criteria and moderately poor on the other. That's enough to be concerned about being relegated to the play-in game. I think Xavier will finish just above that, but it will be close. Definitely rooting for Creighton tonight.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

Damn! There you go... I knew hitting refresh was a bad idea. Just couldn't help myself.

[Masterofreality]

For the bubble teams, non-conference SOS, conference record, and road/neutral record have a disproportionate influence. Xavier is decent, not great, on two of those criteria and moderately poor on the other. That's enough to be concerned about being relegated to the play-in game. I think Xavier will finish just above that, but it will be close. Definitely rooting for Creighton tonight.

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When you look at OOC SOS from teams in the RPI 40-55, which is typically the bubble, Xavier has the 3rd best rating. Stanford and Tennessee are the only two better.

[XUFan09]

Right, I should have clarified: "Decent" is big deal for bubble teams, because none of them are awesome.

We lost 3 of our last 4 without a healthy Stainbrook. With him likely ready to go a week from now, I'm hoping that the Selection Committee will disproportionately weight the games prior to that. Xavier looks to be a seed better then and they would be well above the play-in game.

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[Masterofreality]

Right, I should have clarified: "Decent" is big deal for bubble teams, because none of them are awesome.

We lost 3 of our last 4 without a healthy Stainbrook. With him likely ready to go a week from now, I'm hoping that the Selection Committee will disproportionately weight the games prior to that. Xavier looks to be a seed better then and they would be well above the play-in game.

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It was pretty clear in the two games at MSG as to how much better our offense looked with Stain in there than without him.

[BandAid]

So far so good with Bonnie Uga tenn and nc st...

[xubrew]

Every year is different. Compare the other bubble teams this year to us. Don't compare last years bubble teams to us.

Eight of the ten committee members are the same, and this year's chair was last year's vice chair. It's different, but it isn't as if the deck was completely reshuffled.

But, to your point, there are teams on the bubble that have profiles that look like the teams who got in on the 10, 11 and 12 lines last year. BYU, Dayton, Joe's and even Belmont come to mind. Eight of the ten people on this committee gave Belmont a #11 seed last year, and their profile was similar to this year's.

That's my thinking. If those are the types of teams and profiles that got in last year, and eight of the ten committee members are the same, then they're going to value the same types of things this year. It's not that I am personally obsessed with road wins. I just think the committee is.

I could be wrong, but I'm not just formulating these opinions out of thin air. I have a reason for thinking we're not going to make it.

[xavierj]

Eight of the ten committee members are the same, and this year's chair was last year's vice chair. It's different, but it isn't as if the deck was completely reshuffled.

But, to your point, there are teams on the bubble that have profiles that look like the teams who got in on the 10, 11 and 12 lines last year. BYU, Dayton, Joe's and even Belmont come to mind. Eight of the ten people on this committee gave Belmont a #11 seed last year, and their profile was similar to this year's.

That's my thinking. If those are the types of teams and profiles that got in last year, and eight of the ten committee members are the same, then they're going to value the same types of things this year. It's not that I am personally obsessed with road wins. I just think the committee is.

I could be wrong, but I'm not just formulating these opinions out of thin air. I have a reason for thinking we're not going to make it.

So by your logic, BYU, Arizona St., Oklahoma St. And Nebraska won't make it either. All have been really bad on the road.

[Masterofreality]

Ok so far.

NC State...gonzo, Bona...gonzo. Georgia....on the ropes- down 11 with 4 to go.

[xubrew]

So by your logic, BYU, Arizona St., Oklahoma St. And Nebraska won't make it either. All have been really bad on the road.

Huh?? BYU and Oklahoma State??

BYU has nine wins away from home, including Texas, Stanford, and a Saint Mary's team that was 14-3 at home.

Oklahoma State won eight games away from home.

Nebraska was bad overall, but one of the ones they did get was huge at Michigan State. Without that win I don't think they'd be in.

I still think Arizona State is despite being lousy on the road. They did do other things, like avoid bad losses, and when four of your road losses were to Arizona, UCLA, Oregon and Colorado, who were a combined 65-7 at home, they tend to not punish you for that. I don't expect them to do much once they are in, but I do think they'll get in.

[Masterofreality]

There will be no bid stealers. The three possibles all go down today with double digit losses.

NC State my still be given some consideration but they would knock somebody like SMU out, not Xavier or Providence.

[xubrew]

There will be no bid stealers. The three possibles all go down today with double digit losses.

NC State my still be given some consideration but they would knock somebody like SMU out, not Xavier or Providence.

DEFINITELY helps!!

I'm not convinced at all that SMU is in. They have a few good wins, but they have bad losses as well. I can make a case for NC State if I really had to, but I still think they're behind Florida State, who is far from solidly in.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Now if Creighton takes care of business then today will have been perfect.

[XU3232]

Now if Creighton takes care of business then today will have been perfect.

I agree. Today has been great.

[Masterofreality]

I agree. Today has been great.

Actually, the whole week couldn't have gone much better.

None of the bubble teams, except for Providence with a huge assist from Seton Hall, did anything to help themselves this week...and many lost in spectacularly horrible fashion. Some so badly that the Committee has to take them off the board. (Looking at you SMU and Minnesota).

I believe that we can rest easy tonight.

[XUFan09]

I think people should remember this the next time Xavier is on the Bubble: Most teams end up screwing up their elasticities (or they get a big win and then promptly pick up a bad loss). Only a few actually do what they need to do.

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[mid major]

Okay, I cannot rest yet as I think we have the last bye and if PC wins that would push us to play in the Dump. Bluejays better win. I think if PC lose they will still be in but they'll be playing in the Dump.