Next year we will know a lot more about Mack

[XUOHTX]

I was just reading some threads about how up and down this team is and I tend to agree.

It got me thinking about next year and if we would see more consistency, which then got me thinking about the recruiting class and coaching.

I think next year will be the year we really find out what Chris Mack has as a head coach. Last year we saw what he could do with a severely limited roster (surprisingly well I thought). Before that he had some decent talent. This year again he has decent talent but its a new conference so that changes things.

Next year will be his most talented team yet. It will also be our second year in the BE. By the end of the 14-15 season, we should really have a good idea of what Coach Mack can do in all situations. Personally, I have a lot of faith in him and feel extremely optimistic.

Thank you for indulging my wandering mind before senior night.

[Titanxman04]

I would caution us to jduge next year too closely. We are bringing in five freshmen. Just because they are highly rated doesn't mean they will produce right away. Counting on freshman to be huge contributors is treading on thin ice.

[paulxu]

By 04-05 he may not even be here.

[American X]

Coach Mack has proven coaching chops. He won many games last year Xavier had no business winning. Not to mention he has beat a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament twice on the way to Sweet Sixteens.

[XUFan09]

I would caution us to jduge next year too closely. We are bringing in five freshmen. Just because they are highly rated doesn't mean they will produce right away. Counting on freshman to be huge contributors is treading on thin ice.

I don't think we'll have to rely on the freshmen too much. Heck, one or two of them might redshirt. Abell will replace Philmore (not directly, obviously) and otherwise everyone else will be a year older. If one of the freshman wings makes big contributions off the bench, great.

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[xudash]

By 04-05 he may not even be here.

I'll be mostly dead by then, but, then again, every current Xavier undergrad will be as well by then. But I think we know what XUOHTX meant.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I think unless you have some extreme factors (top 10 coach, top 10 freshman) you are only as good as your experienced players are. Next year our experience will be Senior Dee Davis Justin Martin, and Matt Stainbrook, Junior James Farr and Remy Abell. If those guys aren't consistently leaders on the court and consistent in their play night in night out and forcing the younger players to be accountable, we will be in trouble. It's those guys that the youth on next year's team will look to when we go on the road. Too many times this year, we saw this team go flat on the road and that is on the experienced leaders and the coach.

We will know more next year, and recruiting is trending up, coaching is great, but I think Mack might seem to lack something in the realm of motivation and focus.

[xu2002]

I don't think we'll have to rely on the freshmen too much. Heck, one or two of them might redshirt. Abell will replace Philmore (not directly, obviously) and otherwise everyone else will be a year older. If one of the freshman wings makes big contributions off the bench, great.

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It all depends on if Christon is back or not next year. I tend to lean toward he won't be back, so that would change the team a great deal.

[markchal]

That's crazy, it has to be the year after. Next year we will be relying on five new freshmen and a new transfer to mesh with our returners and replacing Semaj is going to be much, much harder than some people think. He's such a big part of our offense and what we do and his defense has been pretty strong this year too. He plays a lot of minutes for us and I'm not entirely thrilled with a starting backcourt of Davis and Davis defensively. If Semaj comes back, the original post makes sense (I think he's gone). If he leaves, give Mack another year before we truly see what this team will be able to do.

[xuwin]

I would caution us to jduge next year too closely. We are bringing in five freshmen. Just because they are highly rated doesn't mean they will produce right away. Counting on freshman to be huge contributors is treading on thin ice.

I totally agree. Replacing Semaj & Philmore with 5 freshmen probably doesn't make you a better team right away.

[GoMuskies]

I totally agree. Replacing Semaj & Philmore with 5 freshmen probably doesn't make you a better team right away.

I'm not too worried about the loss of Philmore. But Semaj will obviously be impossible to replace next year.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I think Mack is the right guy for the job. Regarding next season, there are still a ton of off-season factors that will play into my expectations but so far every Mack team has exceeded my own preseason expectations besides the 11-12 team which still made the Sweet 16 so it's hard to complain.

[BMoreX]

I think unless you have some extreme factors (top 10 coach, top 10 freshman) you are only as good as your experienced players are. Next year our experience will be Senior Dee Davis Justin Martin, and Matt Stainbrook, Junior James Farr and Remy Abell. If those guys aren't consistently leaders on the court and consistent in their play night in night out and forcing the younger players to be accountable, we will be in trouble. It's those guys that the youth on next year's team will look to when we go on the road. Too many times this year, we saw this team go flat on the road and that is on the experienced leaders and the coach.

We will know more next year, and recruiting is trending up, coaching is great, but I think Mack might seem to lack something in the realm of motivation and focus.

Don't forget junior Semaj Christon.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

Don't forget junior Semaj Christon.

Sorry, I am in the "he is off to the NBA" camp.

If he is here next year, the sky is the limit for this team. With Christon, what we really need is a core group of players that don't all disappear on the same night. I bet if you look in all of our losses Phillmore/Davis/Martin all disappeared. Semaj will show up every single night, the team will play 7 more guys and 3 of them at least will need to show up each night as well. Stain is one, but I don't think Martin and Dee Davis are others. I think Reynolds could be a very consistent player. Dee and Justin need to become that player or we need more consistency out of Farr, Myles, and Randolph.

Remember, if Christon comes back we need one more roster spot. Kamal will transfer but one more spot will have to open up.

[xu82]

I would caution us to jduge next year too closely. We are bringing in five freshmen. Just because they are highly rated doesn't mean they will produce right away. Counting on freshman to be huge contributors is treading on thin ice.

Completely agree. It will take some time. Also, our deep runs seem to happen when we have talented and experienced guard play. Not sure we have enough of both next year. (Though I don't really know what Remy brings to the table in terms of game.)

[MHettel]

The difference in talent between any 2 years certainly matters. But what matters equally as much is the roster continuity between years.

Think about last year's team, compared to the year before.

Lost: Tu, Kenny, Dez, Lyons, Andre Walker

New: Semaj, Philmore, Farr

Continuity: Redford, Travis Taylor, Jeff Robinson, Erik Stenger, Martin, Philmore, Dee Davis (should add redshirt freshmen and transfers here, as long as they practiced with the team).

So last year, we lost a singificant amount more experienced talent than we added in inexperienced talent, and the guys that acted in a continuity role were not featured guys the previous year. I'd consider that a "lose/lose" scenario.


Now, Lets look at this years team compared to last

Lost: Taylor, Redford, Robinson

New: Stainbrook, Myles Davis, Jalen Reynolds, Brandon Randolph, Kamall Richards

Continuity: Semaj, Dee Davis, Martin, Philmore, Farr, Stenger, Stainbrook

In my opinion, the we actually lost LESS talent than we added (even in spite of the experience of that talent). And, the continuity of the ropster was a positive because so many of those guys had been in key roles in prior years.

To me, this year is a "win/win" in terms of talent and continuity.

Next year, I think, is going to be a close call.... (some assumptions shown)

Lost: Semaj, Philmore, Stenger, Richards.

New: Blueitt, London, Sumner, Macura, O'Mara, Abell

Continuity: Dee, Stain, Myles, Jalen, Brandon, Martin, Farr

...but I think overall next year the volume of talent will result in an overall upgrade, and certainly the fact that we bring back 7 guys that are big parts of the current rotation (if not starters) is very helpful for continuity.

Last year was our low point. it's goin up from here.

[XUFan09]

Having three starters back (maybe four) will be huge. If Semaj isn't back, the team still will have their number two through four starters.

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[vee4xu]

I'm worried about Mack's coaching job tonight between 7 p.m. and about 9:30 p.m. Then I'll go from there.

[X-man]

Semaj is coming back next season unless we have a deep tourney run and even then, the odds are that he returns. You heard here first.

[vee4xu]

Semaj is coming back next season unless we have a deep tourney run and even then, the odds are that he returns. You heard here first.

I second this emotion. All in favor, say aye. All opposed, nay.

[markchal]

Inside source or pure conjecture? I think he's pretty firmly gone and a solid first-round pick (albeit second half of the first round). I'd love for him to come back because we'd be unreal next year, but I also am not sure I want to turn into a program that has to screw over an incoming recruit or send a current rotation player packing (Richards is a given as a goner, transfers happen all the time, but if we forced out Randolph, I'd feel a little sleazier).

[vee4xu]

Pure, unabashed, hopeful conjecture on my part. Can't speak for anyone else.

[BTR MUSKIE]

I'm looking for Reynolds to step up big time next year.If Semaj comes back,we could have a great team.How many scholarship players can we have? 12or 13?Seems as if everyone who is eligible comes back plus the 5 recruits,we'll be at 15.

[XUFan09]

I'm looking for Reynolds to step up big time next year.If Semaj comes back,we could have a great team.How many scholarship players can we have? 12or 13?Seems as if everyone who is eligible comes back plus the 5 recruits,we'll be at 15.

13. The team needs to find two scholarships somewhere.

[nuts4xu]

I'm looking for Reynolds to step up big time next year.If Semaj comes back,we could have a great team.How many scholarship players can we have? 12or 13?Seems as if everyone who is eligible comes back plus the 5 recruits,we'll be at 15.

The limit is 13, and you are correct. We are over-committed by 2 ships for next year as things stand right now.

[Muskie]

It doesn't mean they will produce at ALL (the Frosh).

[The_Mack_Pack]

With 5 freshman who are all highly touted chances are that at least 1 will be a solid producer almost immediately. I'd be disappointed if none of the freshman play important roles on next seasons team.

[X-Fan]

Inside source or pure conjecture? I think he's pretty firmly gone and a solid first-round pick (albeit second half of the first round). I'd love for him to come back because we'd be unreal next year, but I also am not sure I want to turn into a program that has to screw over an incoming recruit or send a current rotation player packing (Richards is a given as a goner, transfers happen all the time, but if we forced out Randolph, I'd feel a little sleazier).
I'm not sure where you are getting this information (re: 1st Rd). I recall him being projected there before the season, but things have changed.

Draft Express, a VERY reliable site, has him going in the 2nd Rd (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2014/). I checked other Mock Drafts a few weeks ago and did not see him go 1st Rd in any of them.

Outside of him being determined to leave, it seems like he should return. The only thing that would change that is if he has a Crawford like NCAA Tourney run. I'd be ok with that. ;-)

To me, this is different from both Crawford's and Brown's situations. Neither of them had anything to prove or gain from staying. Both had plenty of exposure, and their games were basically as good as they were going to get. Semaj has two big areas to work on: Outside shot, and going left. I am certainly no expert, but it would seem to me that staying would be a good move.

[xu2002]

I'm not sure where you are getting this information (re: 1st Rd). I recall him being projected there before the season, but things have changed.

Draft Express, a VERY reliable site, has him going in the 2nd Rd (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2014/). I checked other Mock Drafts a few weeks ago and did not see him go 1st Rd in any of them.

Outside of him being determined to leave, it seems like he should return. The only thing that would change that is if he has a Crawford like NCAA Tourney run. I'd be ok with that. ;-)

To me, this is different from both Crawford's and Brown's situations. Neither of them had anything to prove or gain from staying. Both had plenty of exposure, and their games were basically as good as they were going to get. Semaj has two big areas to work on: Outside shot, and going left. I am certainly no expert, but it would seem to me that staying would be a good move.

I didn't realize that his draft perception had changed this much. Prior to the season starting I remember seeing a few things listed with him as a top 10 pick. Hopefully Semaj examines the situation closely and returns to XU for another year, if it's what will be best in the long run for him having a long career in the NBA.

[XUFan09]

With 5 freshman who are all highly touted chances are that at least 1 will be a solid producer almost immediately. I'd be disappointed if none of the freshman play important roles on next seasons team.

I agree. Probability is good that at least one will be able to contribute in a big way, which will help the team's depth. We also don't need them to contribute like we did with this year's freshmen.

[XUOHTX]

After the loss to NC State, all I could think of was this post. Mack has to show us something next year.

[Caveat]

After the loss to NC State, all I could think of was this post. Mack has to show us something next year.

The biggest issue for me is that the same problems continue to pop up year after year -- inconsistency on defense, blandness on offense, and difficulty scoring points away from the rim.

The defensive issues come down, mainly, to a lack of mental toughness (too many times this year with an out-of-position defender or a losing a guy on screens) that leads to errors and an unwillingness to make in-game adjustments such as stepping out to guard 3-point shooters or pressing to change tempo.

On offense? How many years in a row are we going to see the same lazy motion sets that fail to produce open looks? Game after game this year, you had guys jogging through the offense or standing around waiting for something to happen. This leads to a spectator mentality where everyone on the court stands around waiting for someone else to make a play. When that happens, it leads to MORE mental errors.

Things need to change if the team wants to become consistent.

[Lamont Sanford]

A new offensive coordinator is needed. Our motion set offense is offensive.

[Muskie]

At least we've overcome the inability to in-bound a ball. There was a noticeable improvement in that area this season. I'm also looking for kinder rims next season. The rims this season played lockdown defense on out lay-up's and 3-5 footers.

[drudy23]

He'd be dumb to go...as of right now, he wouldn't get drafted. Should he go to the camps and get an evaluation...yes...but unless he's magical in those workouts, he's not going first round.

[blueblob06]

He'd be dumb to go...as of right now, he wouldn't get drafted. Should he go to the camps and get an evaluation...yes...but unless he's magical in those workouts, he's not going first round.
Are you saying Semaj Christon would not get drafted?

[Caveat]

He'd be dumb to go...as of right now, he wouldn't get drafted. Should he go to the camps and get an evaluation...yes...but unless he's magical in those workouts, he's not going first round.

He's almost universally projected as a late first round selection.

If he's going to be a 1st R, he has to go now. His draft grade is based largely on potential, and every year he spends in school not living up to that potential (NBA potential -- meaning both an inside and an outside threat) is adding to the risk of the NBA deciding he doesn't have a future there.

[Masterofreality]

A new offensive coordinator is needed. Our motion set offense is offensive.

Steve Lavin has Gene Keady and former Loyola Chicago coach Jim Whitsell on staff. Whitsell can't recruit worth a lick, but that guy can X and O with the best of them.

That "coordinator" idea didn't work too well at St. Johns.

[xsteve1]

He's almost universally projected as a late first round selection.

If he's going to be a 1st R, he has to go now. His draft grade is based largely on potential, and every year he spends in school not living up to that potential (NBA potential -- meaning both an inside and an outside threat) is adding to the risk of the NBA deciding he doesn't have a future there.

Or he can go like Vander Blue and end up in the D League. The D league is basically basketball purgatory.

[Muskie]

Steve Lavin has Gene Keady and former Loyola Chicago coach Jim Whitsell on staff. Whitsell can't recruit worth a lick, but that guy can X and O with the best of them.

That "coordinator" idea didn't work too well at St. Johns.

Is Keady still on staff? I know he was a few years ago. But I looked for him on the bench (or behind it) live and on tv... didn't see him.

[GoMuskies]

Keady is definitely on staff. I didn't know it until they showed him during the X/St. John's game on NYE.

[Caveat]

Or he can go like Vander Blue and end up in the D League. The D league is basically basketball purgatory.

If he's a 1st Rd. pick, it's guaranteed money for 2 years -- even if you spend most of it in the D League.

Come back a season and slip out of the 1st round and there's no guaranteed cash.

That's a ~$2m gamble right there.