Rooting Interest: 3/5/14

[Retire33]

Another big day for some bubble teams. Also a few Xavier opponents for a chance at big wins.

Rooting Interest for 3/4/14

(All games EST) - Bubble Teams, Teams possibly on X Seed line, Teams that can improve Xavier Profile, Big East Game



Visting Team
Home Team
Time (EST)
Channel


Duke
Wake Forest
7pm
ESPN2


Louisville
SMU
7pm
CBS Sports


UMASS
Duquesne
7pm
-


Nebraska
Indiana
7pm
Big Ten


TCU
Texas
8pm
Longhorn Network


Tennessee
Auburn
8pm
ESPN3


Ole Miss
Arkansas
8pm
ESPN3


Dayton
St. Louis
9pm
CBS Sports


St. Joseph's
George Washington
9pm
-


Colorado
Stanford
9pm
ESPN2


Utah
California
11pm
ESPNU


San Diego State
UNLV
11pm
CBS Sports

[waggy]

Tennesse should have more green letters than red.

[Retire33]

- SMU is up 12 w/ 7 to go in 1st half. Louisvile has only 12 points.
- Duquesne up in late 1st half vs UMASS.
- Wake hanging with Duke
- Nebraska up 8 on IU late in 1st half.

[Retire33]

Tennesse should have more green letters than red.

Agreed and Fixed

[The_Mack_Pack]

Vonleh is out for IU and they look terrible.

[GIMMFD]

Wake up 3 at the half, Duke has looked terrible so far. Not hitting shots at all.

[Masterofreality]

Rick Pitino with ashes on his forehead...

Not sure what to think about that.

[Cheesehead]

Rick Pitino with ashes on his forehead...

Not sure what to think about that.

I do. He's a hypocrite

[Cheesehead]

Wake leading Duke!!

[Woodburn]

What a coaching job by Tim Miles at Nebraska this year.

[STL_XUfan]

When given the choice between playing in dayton or not being in the tourney at all, Mizzou clearly has chosen not to be in the tourney at all. Which deep down, I kindof admire.

[vee4xu]

Duke plays UNC this Saturday, so they may be peeking ahead a bit. They will come around and eek this one out before moving on to UNC.

[Retire33]

Wake playing great the final 4 min. Coach K took out Parker when he got his 4th foul when that run started. Not sure taking out your best player in that situation is good idea.

[The_Mack_Pack]

The twitter reactions about Tom Crean are great.

[vee4xu]

Or not. Well Wake beating Duke can only serve to help X's RPI rating.

[vee4xu]

TN is pounding Auburn 44-20 at halftime. How does that game affect X? X beat TN at home, but lost to them on a neutral court, so how does that calculate?

[Pluto]

I do. He's a hypocrite

First one without sin and all that...

[GoMuskies]

Ron Wellman is putting together a contract extension for Bzdelik as we speak.

[Cheesehead]

First one without sin and all that...

I get. I am not perfect by any means but that school has two head coaches that cheated on their wife's. Call me old fashioned (and I am still a young guy) but integrity is important to me and I would hope it would be for any school.

[waggy]

Huh, Montrez Harrel is at Louisville. I remember him being mentioned as a possible X recruit a couple years ago.

[vee4xu]

Hey, who knows, maybe Rick fell asleep in his cigar ashes this afternoon while making last minute preps for tonight.

[GoMuskies]

I get. I am not perfect by any means but that school has two head coaches that cheated on their wife's. Call me old fashioned (and I am still a young guy) but integrity is important to me and I would hope it would be for any school.

Cheated on their wives?!? Holy cow, that's very unusual. That's probably the only school in the country where that is true.

[Retire33]

Ron Wellman is putting together a contract extension for Bzdelik as we speak.

He too busy running selection committee and prob gonna screw that up too.

[vee4xu]

Tell you what, have any of you taken a good look at Coach Matta lately? That dude couldn't cheat on his wife if he was at a brothel with a year's worth of his tOSU salary in a wheelbarrow. So, doubtful that he would cheat, though the thought must cross his wife's mind daily. Yet, I have never seen his wife, so who knows, maybe they deserve one another.

[Musketeer_15]

Rick Pitino with ashes on his forehead...

Not sure what to think about that.
Hell, where are Archie's ashes? Goes to show how Dayton really promotes those great Catholic values...

[X-band '01]

Rick Pitino with ashes on his forehead...

Not sure what to think about that.

I'm more pissed he finally shaved after the loss at Memphis. Our bearded expert Titan has been in mourning.

It would have been awesome challenging other teams to beat him if they want to see him shave again.

[X-band '01]

Ron Wellman is putting together a contract extension for Bzdelik as we speak.

I know this is going to make people cringe when I say this:

Wellman is the chairman of the Selection Committee this year.

[XUFan09]

I know this is going to make people cringe when I say this:

Wellman is the chairman of the Selection Committee this year.

Oh God.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[GIMMFD]

TN is pounding Auburn 44-20 at halftime. How does that game affect X? X beat TN at home, but lost to them on a neutral court, so how does that calculate?

My assumption is if their record looks better, and they become a more quality team our RPI improves regardless.

[XUFan09]

TN is pounding Auburn 44-20 at halftime. How does that game affect X? X beat TN at home, but lost to them on a neutral court, so how does that calculate?

Good for the SOS twice over and we want Tennessee to remain a top 50 home win. It's disappointing, because at one time, they looked like they could have been a top 25 win.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[gladdenguy]

I really thought Missouri was gonna lose at home tonight. I can't believe they squeaked that out.

[Masterofreality]

Matt Kavanaugh is the ultimate example of Cryer futility.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Every single bubble team has won again so far tonight.. Really need some of these teams to start dropping some games.

[PattyMac1021]

If ESPN's play-by-play is any indication, Texas A&M just decided to hand the game to Missouri (whose NCAA tournament hopes would have been all but shattered after the loss).

Almost none of the teams we have wanted to lose in the past week or so have actually lost.

[mistabeecee41]

Every single bubble team has won again so far tonight.. Really need some of these teams to start dropping some games.

i forgot how much i hate the bubble. when's the last time we were actually on the bubble and concerned for making it? despite being a 10 in 2012, i remember feeling confident going into sunday.

[The_Mack_Pack]

i forgot how much i hate the bubble. when's the last time we were actually on the bubble and concerned for making it? despite being a 10 in 2012, i remember feeling confident going into sunday.

At this time in 2012 we were a bubble team but played our way off the bubble by making the A-10 tourney final. Hopefully we can make a BE tourney run and not have anything to worry about.

[vee4xu]

ud down only 2 with 11 min to play.

[The_Mack_Pack]

If UD wins then things really aren't going our way.

[vee4xu]

I think they very well can win. And a win by ud coupled with a Xavier loss tomorrow and………..well, let's not even go there.

[vee4xu]

SLU missing a slew of FT's.

[xsteve1]

Pretty much a must win for X tomorrow. I just can't see X winning a game in NYC.

[vee4xu]

SLU figures they are in, so why not lose to ud and get another A-10 team in the NCAA.

[The_Mack_Pack]

UD is in absolute control. Fantastic.

[vee4xu]

ud up by 4 and SLU is playing terribly.

[xsteve1]

UD pulling from their inner Maui. SLU was better last year. I hate to say it but this locks up a bid for UD.

[MuskieFN]

I think they very well can win. And a win by ud coupled with a Xavier loss tomorrow and………..well, let's not even go there.

I don't know where X falls on the S curve. All the parts change hourly. But I don't believe that the UD win, Xavier loss scenario moves the Flyers ahead. The Seton Hall losses and USC are bad. But not like Illinois State and Rhode Island.

Edit: Especially considering St. Louis just lost at home last week to Duquesne.

[STL_XUfan]

If ESPN's play-by-play is any indication, Texas A&M just decided to hand the game to Missouri (whose NCAA tournament hopes would have been all but shattered after the loss).

Almost none of the teams we have wanted to lose in the past week or so have actually lost.

both teams were actively trying to lose the game. And then the refs one upped both teams by having back to back terrible calls even after watching replays.

[vee4xu]

ud is playing their way into the tournament as I type this.

[The_Mack_Pack]

This is the first time I've seen Saint Louis this season and they're not very good.. They'll be terrible next season losing their top 4 scorers.

[xsteve1]

I'm a big fan of Archie Miller, he's intense like his brother. If I'm DePaul I make a big run at him.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I'm a big fan of Archie Miller, he's intense like his brother. If I'm DePaul I make a big run at him.

No way he goes from Dayton to DePaul. DePaul is basically coaching suicide.

[SlimKibbles]

This is the first time I've seen Saint Louis this season and they're not very good.. They'll be terrible next season losing their top 4 scorers.

They've looked better than this. That loss to Dookane put them into a rut. ud playing well on the road.

[xsteve1]

No way he goes from Dayton to DePaul. DePaul is basically coaching suicide.

New arena, easier to recruit, better league, more money. The right guy can turn that around.

[mistabeecee41]

Is this my nightmare? Dayton most likely snatching up a spot that we were sure was ours 3 days ago.

[xsteve1]

Dayton definitely trying to Daytonize this game.

[MuskieFN]

Isn't SMU on the bubble? They came into the week below Xavier in the RPI with two losses worse than any that X has and lost at home. Granted, it was Louisville. But still, calm down.

[Xavier]

Isn't SMU on the bubble? They came into the week below Xavier in the RPI with two losses worse than any that X has and lost at home. Granted, it was Louisville. But still, calm down.

SMU on the bubble? They were ranked 18th before the loss tonight.

[xsteve1]

SMU on the bubble? They were ranked 18th before the loss tonight.

SMU is in pretty good shape.

[gladdenguy]

Well that sucks

[The_Mack_Pack]

Unbelievable.. Every bubble team wins again.

[xsteve1]

Dayton punches their ticket. Only way they don't would be to lose their next two.

[Retire33]

I still don't see 6 A10 teams making tournament.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I still don't see 6 A10 teams making tournament.

Who do you leave out? They all have good resumes.

[KabeX]

Well I'd be OK if that happens tomorrow night too. All bubble teams winning that is.

[MuskieFN]

SMU on the bubble? They were ranked 18th before the loss tonight.

In the human polls. The computers aren't as kind.

My point is that not every win or loss is a zero sum game.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Well I'd be OK if that happens tomorrow night too. All bubble teams winning that is.

Xavier is the only bubble team to play tomorrow so I hope so too.

[Xavgrad08]

I think Archie will be coaching Wake Forest next year. Archie is an ACC guy so I think it makes some sense. Wake Forest will likely be turned down by some coaches and will settle with Archie.

[xsteve1]

Too bad X didn't show that sense of urgency against Seton Hall. If X misses the tourney you can point right at those two losses.

[KabeX]

Xavier is the only bubble team to play tomorrow so I hope so too.

Exactly.

[XU2011]

Unbelievable.. Every bubble team wins again.

Everyone except us.

People thought I was crazy when I said we aren't going to make the NCAA. Hell, even I thought I might have been wrong after the Creighton game. But Seton Hall showed Xavier's true colors.

We are a .500 team since the middle of January. (actually will be below .500 after tomorrow).

Good teams improve as the season progresses. We have regressed. Good teams show up in March. We showed up for 2 hours.

March is going to be brutal. UD and UC both in the NCAA. Xavier misses for the 2nd year in a row and is in the NIT. This sucks.

[XU2011]

I think Archie will be coaching Wake Forest next year. Archie is an ACC guy so I think it makes some sense. Wake Forest will likely be turned down by some coaches and will settle with Archie.

I don't think Wellman will ever fire Bzeldik. That is his guy.

[Xavier]

Everyone except us.

People thought I was crazy when I said we aren't going to make the NCAA. Hell, even I thought I might have been wrong after the Creighton game. But Seton Hall showed Xavier's true colors.

We are a .500 team since the middle of January. (actually will be below .500 after tomorrow).

Good teams improve as the season progresses. We have regressed. Good teams show up in March. We showed up for 2 hours.

March is going to be brutal. UD and UC both in the NCAA. Xavier misses for the 2nd year in a row and is in the NIT. This sucks.

I'm not sure Xavier has regressed, I can see an argument they haven't gotten better. They lost to USC early on, struggled against BG and Evensville...hard to say they have gotten worse.

[waggy]

Since mid Jan X had 8 road games vs. 5 at home.

[Nocalmuskie]

Stanford and St. Joes are bubble losers tonight... and Cal i a tight one with Utah.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24470020/poppin-bubbles-nebraska-stays-in-the-mix

[Cheesehead]

Well shit. X not getting much help tonight but they can beat Nova AT HOME on Senior night. I mean Wake beat Duke for first time since 2009. Oh, and Pitino and Petrino are scumbags. That is all.

[XUFan09]

Everyone except us.

People thought I was crazy when I said we aren't going to make the NCAA. Hell, even I thought I might have been wrong after the Creighton game. But Seton Hall showed Xavier's true colors.

We are a .500 team since the middle of January. (actually will be below .500 after tomorrow).

Good teams improve as the season progresses. We have regressed. Good teams show up in March. We showed up for 2 hours.

March is going to be brutal. UD and UC both in the NCAA. Xavier misses for the 2nd year in a row and is in the NIT. This sucks.

You do realize that the Xavier had possibly the easiest January in the Big East, right? It was 4 home games to 2 road games, and one of the road games was DePaul. We were going to lose more of our games later in the season. Plus, the Kenpom numbers (and other computer numbers) have been fairly steady since the beginning of the conference season, not really regressing much at all. That is, unless you're going to try to argue that going from 39th the morning of December 31 to 43rd today is significant enough to be called a "regression."

[gladdenguy]

Not looking good. We will know more after the Nova game but I think this will be the better chance to get a win as opposed to St Johns or Marquette.
This does suck. If they lose both games it's either the play in games or out.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X is in no matter what so everybody just relax. Now it will be at UD Arena but it still counts. Also X isn't losing to Nova, I promise you that.

[GoMuskies]

Those two statements make no sense together. X sure as hell is not going to UD Arena if they beat Nova.

[LA Muskie]

X is in no matter what so everybody just relax. Now it will be at UD Arena but it still counts. Also X isn't losing to Nova, I promise you that.
Those two things are mutually exclusive. There's no chance in hell that we are in the play-in game if we beat Nova tomorrow. Period. End of story.

[LA Muskie]

Those two statements make no sense together. X sure as hell is not going to UD Arena if they beat Nova.
What he said.

[OTRMUSKIE]

You're correct

[vee4xu]

Don't look now, but Palm has X and ud switching places. We are last 4 in playing at ud and they are an 11 seed. So, there's that with your caffeine this morning.

[kyxu]

Don't look now, but Palm has X and ud switching places. We are last 4 in playing at ud and they are an 11 seed. So, there's that with your caffeine this morning.

*crawls into hole, covers back up with dirt*

[vee4xu]

For the record he does have ud listed as a bubble team. Also, Archie is whipping the horse down the stretch with his bags packed for post season interviews. He needs this kind of finish for his resume. He's a Miller. What more needs said?

[Masterofreality]

The Cryers could very well lose to Richmond on Saturday....but probably not with Cedric Lindsay out.

If they did, however, it would be the most dayton thing ever.

[ammtd34]

Everyone except us.

People thought I was crazy when I said we aren't going to make the NCAA. Hell, even I thought I might have been wrong after the Creighton game. But Seton Hall showed Xavier's true colors.

We are a .500 team since the middle of January. (actually will be below .500 after tomorrow).

Good teams improve as the season progresses. We have regressed. Good teams show up in March. We showed up for 2 hours.

March is going to be brutal. UD and UC both in the NCAA. Xavier misses for the 2nd year in a row and is in the NIT. This sucks.

Another foregone conclusion. Looks like I should sell my tickets for tonight. Relax, dude.

[mid major]

If Dayton makes it, and it appears they will, Archie will be packing his bags to get the hell out of Dayton. I can see him going somewhere like Boston College, Wake or even DePaul.

[casualfan]

SMU on the bubble? They were ranked 18th before the loss tonight.

Everything I have seen has SMU in safely.

[ammtd34]

The Cryers could very well lose to Richmond on Saturday....but probably not with Cedric Lindsay out.

If they did, however, it would be the most dayton thing ever.

It would be pretty Dayton. I think the most Dayton thing ever, though, would be playing a home play-in game and losing.

[gladdenguy]

There is a big difference in where Palm sees Xavier's resume as opposed to Lunardi. It will be interesting to see Lunardi's bracket today. Even bubble watch on Tuesday after the Seton Hall loss had us in......not lock status but still as the top Big East team not named Villanova and Creighton.

Had Xavier not lost at Seton Hall on Monday night, the Musketeers may have been a lock. But they did, and so they're not, though they shouldn't feel too worried, which is more than we can say for the rest of the Big East bubble.

Xavier [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 46, SOS: 82] On Friday, Xavier was a good example of one type of work-to-do teams. There were teams who desperately needed to improve their standing (such as Georgetown, Providence and St. John's), and there were teams who merely needed to hold the line. The Musketeers did that this week. Sure, they lost at Seton Hall on Monday, and being swept in the regular season by the .500 Pirates is not exactly the most ringing endorsement of a team's quality. But that loss came two days after Xavier beat Creighton at home. At worst, the two games cancel each other out, and with only a home date against Villanova left, the Musketeers are probably safe.

[danaandvictory]

There is a big difference in where Palm sees Xavier's resume as opposed to Lunardi.

As I recall, Palm's collegerpi.com was the first site to calculate the RPI on a day-to-day basis back in the Stone Age of the Internet. He was sort of a pioneer in that way. Probably safe to say he still relies most heavily on the RPI to assess teams.

I don't think that's true of the selection committee though. Since Bobinski's reign of terror on the committee it's evident that they put more weight on Pomeroy/Sagarin and other more sophisticated metrics and use the RPI only as a classification tool for a team's record.

So if I'm putting any stock in a "bracketologist", it's sure as hell not Palm.

[gladdenguy]

Even though last night was another bad night......2 bright spots were California losing to Utah and Stanford with a loss at home from another bubble foe Colorado.

[danaandvictory]

The one fact that I cannot get past as I consider this is that the Big East, as the third-best conference in the country, is not going to get 2 bids. There is going to be at least one other Big East team in the field.

It is not going to be easy for one of the three legit at-large teams behind X (Providence, St. John's, Georgetown) to do enough between now and next Sunday to elevate their resume over Xavier's. PC and SJU had abysmal non-conference slates. SJU has good computer numbers but X swept them. Georgetown is going to finish behind X in a true double round-robin (although I think they have the opportunity to do some business with Nova and a hot streak going into NYC). Bryce Cotton already killed Marquette dead.

The Stainbrook injury adds an element of uncertainty, but I still think we are sitting comfortably on the right side of the bubble and will be even with two losses.

[casualfan]

The Stainbrook injury adds an element of uncertainty, but I still think we are sitting comfortably on the right side of the bubble and will be even with two losses.

You really think we can lose tonight and in the first round of the Big East tourney to a lesser team and still make the tourney?

[danaandvictory]

You really think we can lose tonight and in the first round of the Big East tourney to a lesser team and still make the tourney?

Yes. Probably Dayton, but yes, I do. Not overwhelmingly so, like 55/45.

[xsteve1]

Yes. Probably Dayton, but yes, I do. Not overwhelmingly so, like 55/45.

I would think for this to happen X would need to see a Creighton-Villanova final and Stainbrook has to participate in the first BE tourney game.

[casualfan]

Yes. Probably Dayton, but yes, I do. Not overwhelmingly so, like 55/45.

I appreciate your optimism, but I think you are dead wrong.

[danaandvictory]

I appreciate your optimism, but I think you are dead wrong.

First time in my life I've been accused of optimism where XU basketball is concerned.

Just an observation, but the best non-conference win for Providence is Vermont and for St. John's is San Francisco.

[casualfan]

First time in my life I've been accused of optimism where XU basketball is concerned.

Just an observation, but the best non-conference win for Providence is Vermont and for St. John's is San Francisco.

What scares me is that I think there is a decent chance we get to test your theory.

[xsteve1]

First time in my life I've been accused of optimism where XU basketball is concerned.

Just an observation, but the best non-conference win for Providence is Vermont and for St. John's is San Francisco.

Georgetown is probably my biggest concern especially if they make a run in the BE tourney.

[XUFan09]

Georgetown is probably my biggest concern especially if they make a run in the BE tourney.

Yeah, Georgetown has the third best non-conference resume. It may even be better than that Creighton's, actually, due to how much better their SOS was (25 vs. 140). The @Villanova game could be a must-win, though, to avoid the sub-.500 conference record.

[XUFan09]

You really think we can lose tonight and in the first round of the Big East tourney to a lesser team and still make the tourney?

Technically it would be to a lesser team, but Xavier would be facing an RPI 51-75 team in the first round of the BET. A loss there wouldn't be devastating. It's not like they'd be facing Butler or something.

[Juice]

If I know Dayton like I think I do, they will find a way to shit their pants and ruin all of this.

[casualfan]

Technically it would be to a lesser team, but Xavier would be facing an RPI 51-75 team in the first round of the BET. A loss there wouldn't be devastating. It's not like they'd be facing Butler or something.


Not many bubble teams are able to sustain three straight losses to end the season, two of which would be to teams not projected to be in the tourney.

[XUFan09]

As I recall, Palm's collegerpi.com was the first site to calculate the RPI on a day-to-day basis back in the Stone Age of the Internet. He was sort of a pioneer in that way. Probably safe to say he still relies most heavily on the RPI to assess teams.

I don't think that's true of the selection committee though. Since Bobinski's reign of terror on the committee it's evident that they put more weight on Pomeroy/Sagarin and other more sophisticated metrics and use the RPI only as a classification tool for a team's record.

So if I'm putting any stock in a "bracketologist", it's sure as hell not Palm.

Yeah, I wouldn't rely on Palm...or Lunardi. Over the past five years they have been average (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html).

Jeff Borzello (http://www.bustingthebracket.com/) has been among the best. He has Xavier as a 9 seed, last updated on Monday (Don't know if it was before or after the SH game). Bracket Matrix, the composite of a whole bunch of predictions, tends to be one of the accurate ones, and it has Xavier with an average seed of 10.30, with a majority of brackets updated since the Seton Hall game.

[XUFan09]

Not many bubble teams are able to sustain three straight losses to end the season, two of which would be to teams not projected to be in the tourney.

Going into the Seton Hall game, Xavier was on the upper cusp of the bubble, practically not on the bubble. That's why they are able to potentially sustain three straight losses. It's not like they were Providence or Dayton, true bubble teams.

[gladdenguy]

Stanford must be in real trouble then. They have lost 3 in a row. When you really look at resumes Xavier has a pretty good one compared to most bubble teams. My only worry is the Stainbrook factor.

[XUFan09]

Stanford must be in real trouble then. They have lost 3 in a row. When you really look at resumes Xavier has a pretty good one compared to most bubble teams. My only worry is the Stainbrook factor.

Yep. It's incredible how weak the bubble is. Everyone worries about multiple teams getting hot at the same time, but it just doesn't happen because it's so unlikely. Most teams that need to do something to secure a bid fail. Hell, some teams just have to beat a lesser team at home and they still fail, or they need to beat a weak team in the first round of the conference tournament and screw up in that endeavor. A couple teams will probably get hot, but for the most part, these teams are on the bubble for a reason.

[GoMuskies]

for the most part, these teams are on the bubble for a reason.

Totally agree. Unfortunately, that applies to us in spades.

[gladdenguy]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi has us 3rd in the Last 4 byes category. Has Dayton on the Last 4 in. Interesting but this is altogether real dangerous territory that is now pretty consistent from every bracketologist.


From ESPN Insider article today by Lunardi

Hot to trot
By my count, seven teams hit the head of the stretch riding winning streaks of a dozen games or more. Bet against the following at your own risk.

• Wichita State Shockers (31 straight wins, last loss April 6 versus Louisville, 2013 Final Four)
• Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (24 straight wins, last loss Nov. 23 at East Tennessee State)
• Florida Gators (22 straight wins, last loss Dec. 2 at Connecticut)
• North Carolina Central Eagles (16 straight wins, last loss Jan. 11 at Florida A&M)
• Virginia Cavaliers (13 straight wins, last loss Jan. 13 at Duke)
• North Carolina Tar Heels (12 straight wins, last loss Jan. 20 at Virginia)
• Davidson Wildcats (12 straight wins, last loss Jan. 16 versus Elon)

For what it's worth, I can't ever recall this many teams with such long winning streaks heading into Championship Week. We're talking 130-0 here, folks.


Fading fast
Counting on your favorite bubble team to get hot? Hoping a so-so February doesn't hurt your team's NCAA seed too much? These numbers might suggest otherwise.

• Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-12, 7-10 Big Ten), Gophers have lost seven of their last 10
• California Golden Bears (18-11, 9-7 Pac-12), Bears have lost seven of their last 11
• Pittsburgh Panthers (22-8, 10-7 ACC), Panthers have lost six of their last 10
• Michigan State Spartans (22-7, 11-5 Big Ten), Spartans have lost six of their last 10
• Xavier Musketeers (20-10, 10-7 Big East), Musketeers have lost six of their last 11
• Iowa Hawkeyes (20-9, 9-7 Big Ten), Hawkeyes have lost six of their last 11

Think about these negative streaks when plotting your brackets. Yes, teams sometimes have a big turnaround in NCAA play (such as Syracuse last season, for instance). But playing .500 or worse for a month or more doesn't exactly suggest multiple tournament wins.

Vegetarians
[+] EnlargeYogi Ferrell
AP Photo/Bruce Schwartzman
Yogi Ferrell and the Indiana Hoosiers have feasted this season against low-ranked competition.
I track "effective records" throughout the season. It's a quick and dirty way to negate the artificial impact of wins against teams in the bottom 200 of Division I. Let's check a few team records with all sub-200 home victories removed.

• Indiana Hoosiers (17-13, 7-10 Big Ten), effective record 9-13
• Utah Utes (20-9, 9-8 Pac-12), effective record 9-9
• Iowa Hawkeyes (20-9, 9-7 Big Ten), effective record 14-9
• Arkansas Razorbacks (21-9, 10-7 SEC), effective record 15-9
• Memphis Tigers (22-7, 11-5 American), effective record 16-7
• Southern Methodist Mustangs (23-7, 12-5 American), effective record 16-7
• Toledo Rockets (25-5, 13-4 MAC), effective record 16-5
• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (24-6, 12-3 Conference USA), effective record 17-6

Bottom line: If and when Indiana or Utah win a few more games and get in the proverbial "conversation," don't give it much thought.

Road Dogs
Longtime Selection Committee member C.M. Newton said it best, "You don't play any home games in the toon-ament." So it's worth examining how certain teams perform in the road/neutral environments they'll face at the dance.

• Utah Utes (20-9, 9-8 Pac-12), R/N record 2-7
• Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-12, 7-10 Big Ten), R/N record 3-9
• Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-12, 10-7 Big Ten), R/N record 4-10
• Georgetown Hoyas (17-12, 8-9 Big East), R/N record 4-9
• Xavier Musketeers (20-10, 10-7 Big East), R/N record 4-9
• Marquette Golden Eagles (17-13, 9-8 Big East), R/N 5-10
• Kansas State Wildcats (20-10, 10-7 Big 12), R/N record 5-9
• Arizona State Sun Devils (21-9, 10-7 Pac-12), R/N record 5-8
• Brigham Young Cougars (21-10, 13-5 WCC), R/N record 6-9

Enough said...

Road Warriors
Just so we don't close on a negative note, here's a quick list of potential at-large teams with at least 10 victories away from home this season.

• Wichita State Shockers, Road/Neutral record of 14-0
• Florida Gators, R/N record of 12-2
• Villanova Wildcats, R/N record of 12-2
• San Diego State Aztecs, R/N record of 12-2
• Massachusetts Minutemen, R/N record of 12-5
• Arizona Wildcats, R/N record of 11-2
• Saint Louis Billikens, R/N record of 11-2
• Michigan State Spartans, R/N record of 11-3
• New Mexico Lobos, R/N record of 11-3
• Wisconsin Badgers, R/N record of 10-2
• Syracuse Orange, R/N record of 10-2
• Virginia Cavaliers, R/N record of 10-3
• Louisville Cardinals, R/N record of 10-3
• Michigan Wolverines, R/N record of 10-5
• Saint Joseph's Hawks, R/N record of 10-6

[LA Muskie]

Yes. Probably Dayton, but yes, I do. Not overwhelmingly so, like 55/45.
If Stain wasn't injured I'd be with you. But if we close 0-3 without Stain, I think we are left out.