Rooting Interest: 3/4/14

[Retire33]

A little late but here is the Tuesday version of Rooting interest. With X possibly on the bubble, huge games for teams like Baylor and the Big East bubble teams.

Rooting Interest for 3/4/14

(All games EST) - Bubble Teams, Teams possibly on X Seed line, Teams that can improve Xavier Profile, Big East Game



Visting Team
Home Team
Time (EST)
Channel


Creighton
Georgetown
7pm
Fox Sports 1


Iowa State
Baylor
7pm
ESPN2


Ohio
Bowling Green
7pm
-


Miami (OH)
Kent State
9pm
-


Miami (FL)
Clemson
8pm
ESPN3


Alabama
Kentucky
9pm
ESPN


Florida State
Boston College
9pm
ESPNU


Marquette
Providence
9pm
Fox Sports 1


Arizona State
Oregon
11pm
Fox Sports 1

[xsteve1]

Georgetown taking it to Creighton. Was hoping Creighton would make a big run in the tourney but I can see them flaming out early.

[Retire33]

Georgetown taking it to Creighton. Was hoping Creighton would make a big run in the tourney but I can see them flaming out early.

McBuckets with 6pts at half after 3/10 shooting.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Would be a great night if Baylor, Florida State, and Kentucky all go down.

[MuskieFN]

Go Providence or Marquette??

[The_Mack_Pack]

Go Providence or Marquette??

Providence because screw Marquette.

[THRILLHOUSE]

McDermott is really struggling. Think he is 6 for 18 and just bricked two free throws.

[xsteve1]

OT Syracuse is in full meltdown mode losing by 12 to Brian Gregory's GT Tech by 12 in the Carrier Dome.

[THRILLHOUSE]

and Doug nails two 3's in a row to cut the lead to 9 with 8 to go.

[paulxu]

South Carolina (after beating KY) decided to play Florida straight up in the first half.
Now getting blown out.
Someday Frank Martin will just implode. It will be epic.

[gladdenguy]

Well Baylor and Georgetown win. I hate the bubble.

[GoMuskies]

I hate the bubble.

Thursday night our guys have their shot to let us sleep easy for the 10 days leading up to the Selection Show.

[vee4xu]

Thursday night our guys have their shot to let us sleep easy for the 10 days leading up to the Selection Show.

Good thing I think sleep is overrated.

[LadyMuskie]

But I thought we were a lock?!?!?!?!

[RoseyMuskie]

With Providence playing at Creighton Saturday, and MU at St. John's, I believe the best scenario is for Provi to win tonight then lose Saturday. Correct me if I'm mistaken, but then X would finish third even with a loss Thursday. This is just going off the top of my head, so I could be mistaken.

[gladdenguy]

Thursday night our guys have their shot to let us sleep easy for the 10 days leading up to the Selection Show.

Villanova also playing for an outright Big East title. I don't like our chances.

[XUFan09]

With Providence playing at Creighton Saturday, and MU at St. John's, I believe the best scenario is for Provi to win tonight then lose Saturday. Correct me if I'm mistaken, but then X would finish third even with a loss Thursday. This is just going off the top of my head, so I could be mistaken.

As long as Providence and Marquette each lose a game somewhere, Xavier will have the 3 seed. If Xavier upsets Villanova, they will also have the 3 seed, regardless of what these two do. Xavier will not finish below St. John's in any scenario, so the worse possible seed is a 5 seed. A 5 seed requires Marquette going 2-0 and Providence beating Creighton.

I think Xavier has the highest probability of getting a 3 seed among any teams, because their destiny can be in their hands.

EDIT: Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for Providence tonight, as I think they're much more likely to lose @Creighton than Marquette is to lose vs. St. John's.

[RoseyMuskie]

As long as Providence and Marquette each lose a game somewhere, Xavier will have the 3 seed. If Xavier upsets Villanova, they will also have the 3 seed, regardless of what these two do. Xavier will not finish below St. John's in any scenario, so the worse possible seed is a 5 seed. A 5 seed requires Marquette going 2-0 and Providence beating Creighton.

I think Xavier has the highest probability of getting a 3 seed among any teams, because their destiny can be in their hands.

EDIT: Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for Providence tonight, as I think they're much more likely to lose @Creighton than Marquette is to lose vs. St. John's.

Thanks for the breakdown 09. I think it would be tough for the committee to leave out the 3rd best team from the 3rd/4th best conference. I'm sure such an event has occurred before, but it definitely wouldn't hurt us.

[vee4xu]

Marquette was losing by a few to Providence last time I looked a few minutes ago.

[XUFan09]

Marquette was losing by a few to Providence last time I looked a few minutes ago.

You jinxed it! Marquette just tied.

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[XUFan09]

Looking better now...

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[KC4X]

Cotton and Providence in general are making very bad decisions down the stretch.

[XUFan09]

What a shot! And-1 on the 3!

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[RoseyMuskie]

You gotta be kidding me!

[RoseyMuskie]

Holy smokes..

[KC4X]

Once again, Cotton took a deep 3 with plenty of time rather than taking it to the hoop. Now Marquette has all the momentum.

[XUFan09]

Cotton had 19 seconds in a tie game...He's not a great three-point shooter, but he's one of the fastest players in the conference with the ball in his hands and can draw fouls at a high rate through driving. So what does he do? Takes a contested fadeaway three-pointer from a foot behind the line.

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[waggy]

Marquette won't go away.

[Masterofreality]

I love this league!

[xavierj]

A win by providence all but secures a 3 seed for xavier. No way Providence beats Creighton at Creighton after losing to Xavier and Georgetown on senior night.

[XUFan09]

Had to follow gamecast for that OT. Did Providence, the #1 free-throw shooting team in the country, just go 1-2 from the line at the end when they could have won the game?

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[RoseyMuskie]

53 bench points to 1 for MU. I challenge anyone to find a greater discrepancy.

[Cheesehead]

Great finish

[XUFan09]

This is crazy.

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[XUFan09]

Huge possession for Marquette after this timeout.

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[LA Muskie]

Wow. Wow. And wow again.

[waggy]

C'mon Cotton.

[waggy]

I can't believe Providence won that. Wow.

[LA Muskie]

That kid Cotton? Yeah he doesn't suck...

[Cheesehead]

Jesus, Marquette shit the bed on that one. I don't see how that helps X at all.

[xavierj]

That pretty much gives Xavier the 3 seed. A win Thursday and they are in great shape.

[Masterofreality]

What....a.....game.

[GoMuskies]

Does that lock up the 4 seed at worst?

[Masterofreality]

Based on '09's analysis, it does. X cannot be worst than St. Johns and I believe we would have the tiebreak over both Marquette and Providence due to our St. Johns sweep. If Providence loses at Creighton, then we have 3 no matter what happens Thursday night.

Let's just win and remove all doubt.

[gladdenguy]

I think so Go. As we would win the tie breaker over Marquette and St Johns, whoever wins and becomes 10-8.
If Xavier wins Thursday and Providence loses obviously Xavier finishes 3rd.
My question is who wins the Xavier/Providence tiebreaker if both win or both lose?

[XUFan09]

Does that lock up the 4 seed at worst?

Yep. And Xavier's chance of a 3 seed, per Kenpom, is 91.15% (I multiplied Xavier's probability of losing by Providence's probability of winning). I won't really feel good until Xavier wins Thursday or Providence loses Saturday, but that's somewhat comforting.

This also cuts down the potential first-round opponents to Marquette or St. John's, which we'll find out when they play each other on Saturday. That is, unless Georgetown beats Nova on Senior Night with St. John's losing, which would make Georgetown the 6 seed up against the 3 seed.

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[XUFan09]

If both Xavier and Providence win, Xavier gets the tiebreaker. Either:

1) Villanova is in 1st by themselves and Xavier would be 1-1 to Providence's 0-2.

-or-

2) Villanova and Creighton tie, and they go down the line to records against the 5th place team and so on. They'll run into St. John's (Xavier 2-0, Providence 1-1) before they run into Seton Hall (Xavier 0-2, Providence 1-1).

Edit: I wasn't thinking straight. If Creighton loses another game, they can't possibly tie with Villanova, precluding scenario 2. Scenario 2 does come into effect though if both Xavier and Providence lose, as they'll go down the line and eventually get to the St. John's game.

[XUFan09]

If both lose, the tiebreaker would come down to scenario 2. It can't be overstated how big that @St. John's game was.

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[Retire33]

Missed ASU/Oregon Game going on right now on FS1. Really could use an Oregon home lose right here.

Ducks currently up 4 with 8 to go.

[profson]

I think so Go. As we would win the tie breaker over Marquette and St Johns, whoever wins and becomes 10-8.
If Xavier wins Thursday and Providence loses obviously Xavier finishes 3rd.
My question is who wins the Xavier/Providence tiebreaker if both win or both lose?

If both win, Villanova is #1 and Xavier wins the tie breaker by virtue of its victory over Villanova (you don't get down to Providence's two victories against Creighton).

If both lose,

- and Marquette beats St. John's, there is 3-way tie among Xavier, Providence and Marquette. The first tiebreaker is not dispositive as each team is 2-2 against the other two. The next tiebreaker is record against the top team(s). [1] If Villanova beats Georgetown it is the top team and again Xavier gets #3 by virtue of its win against Villanova. [2] If Villanova loses to Georgetown, there is a tie between Villanova and Creighton and Marquette is eliminated because it beat neither but Xavier and Providence beat Creighton. As between Xavier and Providence you go down the standings from the top until you find a team(s) where there is an advantage, which is not the case in respect of the Villanova/Creighton duo or Marquette. However, since St. John's and Georgetown have the same record at 9-9, Xavier gets the #3 seed because it is 3-1 against them and Providence is 2-2.

- and St. John's beats Marquette, then Xavier and Providence are in a tie, but in that case St. John's is ahead of Georgetown irrespective of the outcome of the Georgetown/Villanova game, and Xavier again gets the #3 seed as it is 2-0 against St. John's

QED: Xavier is the 3rd seed unless it loses to Villanova and Providence beats Creighton.

Any holes in this?

[profson]

If both win, Villanova is #1 and Xavier wins the tie breaker by virtue of its victory over Villanova (you don't get down to Providence's two victories against Creighton).

If both lose,

- and Marquette beats St. John's, there is 3-way tie among Xavier, Providence and Marquette. The first tiebreaker is not dispositive as each team is 2-2 against the other two. The next tiebreaker is record against the top team(s). [1] If Villanova beats Georgetown it is the top team and again Xavier gets #3 by virtue of its win against Villanova. [2] If Villanova loses to Georgetown, there is a tie between Villanova and Creighton and Marquette is eliminated because it beat neither but Xavier and Providence beat Creighton. As between Xavier and Providence you go down the standings from the top until you find a team(s) where there is an advantage, which is not the case in respect of the Villanova/Creighton duo or Marquette. However, since St. John's and Georgetown have the same record at 9-9, Xavier gets the #3 seed because it is 3-1 against them and Providence is 2-2.

- and St. John's beats Marquette, then Xavier and Providence are in a tie, but in that case St. John's is ahead of Georgetown irrespective of the outcome of the Georgetown/Villanova game, and Xavier again gets the #3 seed as it is 2-0 against St. John's

QED: Xavier is the 3rd seed unless it loses to Villanova and Providence beats Creighton.

Any holes in this?

BTW, if Providence beats Creighton and Xavier loses to Villanova, Xavier gets the 4th seed because

- if it ties with St. John's, Xavier wins the head-to-head tiebreaker

- if it ties with Marquette, Xavier wins because of its victory against Creighton

[MuskieFN]

A week ago I wasn't sure there was much difference in the 3/4 seed. But after this mini slide by Creighton, I'd take that in the semifinals. Hopefully.

[mid major]

Come on Billikens. Take it out on the Flyers on senior night.

[Nocalmuskie]

Great analysis. Question: What exactly has to happen for X to play either Marquette or Gtown in first round? I DO NOT want to play St. Johns in MSG after already beating them twice.


Yep. And Xavier's chance of a 3 seed, per Kenpom, is 91.15% (I multiplied Xavier's probability of losing by Providence's probability of winning). I won't really feel good until Xavier wins Thursday or Providence loses Saturday, but that's somewhat comforting.

This also cuts down the potential first-round opponents to Marquette or St. John's, which we'll find out when they play each other on Saturday. That is, unless Georgetown beats Nova on Senior Night with St. John's losing, which would make Georgetown the 6 seed up against the 3 seed.

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[mid major]

All that needs to happen, I believe, is X and PC need to finish with the same record and SJU needs to beat Market. SJU will then finish in 5th place and the Warriors will finish in 6th place.

[GoMuskies]

I'd rather play St. John's than Marquette. Buzz seems to have Chris's number. And Steve Lavin is a doofus.

[XUFan09]

Scenarios where Xavier avoids St. John's:

- Xavier win/Providence loss + St. John's win (Kenpom 38.3%) --> Face Marquette
- Xavier win/Providence loss + Georgetown win + St. John's Loss (7.9%) --> Face Georgetown
- Xavier loss and Providence win + St. John's loss (5.2%) --> Face Marquette

A composite of 51.4% for situations where Xavier avoids St. John's. Flip a coin.

[Masterofreality]

I'd rather play St. John's than Marquette. Buzz seems to have Chris's number. And Steve Lavin is a doofus.

This, qualified if Matt Stainbrook can play. We match up much better with St. Johns..because they can't shoot 3's. Marquette has a few guys that can, Thomas, Mayo, Wilson.

[Milhouse]

Even if Stain can't play we know Jalen can hang with St. Johns.

[xuwin]

Even if Stain can't play we know Jalen can hang with St. Johns.

St Johns will have a game plan for Jalen the next time.

[ammtd34]

St Johns will have a game plan for Jalen the next time.

But you have to account for who's responsible for creating that plan.

[ThrowDownDBrown]

St. Johns is a team full of non shooters coached by an idiot. I want them again

[waggy]

I guess we can just use this thread for today's games until Retire puts up a good one.


Duke is at Wake. Wake had an early lead last time I looked.
Nebraska is at Indiana. Nebraska is a bubble team I think.

Tennessee is at Auburn. Tennessee is both a bubble team and twice an X opponent.

Texas A&M at Missouri. Mizzou on the bubble?
Ole Miss at Arkansas. Arkansas on the bubble?

Dayton at Saint Louis.

St. Joes at George Washington. It would hurt GW to lose at home.

[The_Mack_Pack]

A Nebraska loss would be nice.

[waggy]

I added a few to my previous post.

And then there are these:

Nevada at Boise. Is Boise even in the discussion. They looked decent early.

Colorado at Stanford.

Utah at Cal.

San Diego St. @ UNLV.