I sure hope not

[Always Learning]

With the wins over St. John's and Creighton, we have leaped up from a "bubble" to what the predictors are saying a #8 or #9 seed.

I sure hope not, and I am lighting candles at church and asking St Francis to please ... pretty please .. make us a 10, or an 11, or even a 12 seed.

Why? Simply because of the odds, and I do believe in odds.

A 10 seed has a 35% chance of advancing past a seven seed, and 11 seed has a 31% chance of advancing past a 6th seed, and a12 seed has a 31% chance of advancing past a fifth seed.

An 8 seed vs a 9 seed are pretty equal (45% vs 55%) but they have only a 6% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen, that's because they get a number one in the second round, and I don't want to play Wichita St on that neutral court in StLouis, or Arizona on that "neutral" court in San Diego, or Kansas on that "neutral court" in St Louis, or Florida on that "neutral" court in Orlando.

However a 10 seed's chances of making the Sweet 16 is three times better, an 11 seed's chances are twice as good, and even a 12th seed's chances are 2.5 times better.

But, hell win out vs SH, and 'Nova, win the tournament, and get a top five seed.

BTW, the last time our record at MSG lifetime is 9-4 (two different buildings but nevertheless MSG).

[xuwin]

With the wins over St. John's and Creighton, we have leaped up from a "bubble" to what the predictors are saying a #8 or #9 seed.

I sure hope not, and I am lighting candles at church and asking St Francis to please ... pretty please .. make us a 10, or an 11, or even a 12 seed.

Why? Simply because of the odds, and I do believe in odds.

A 10 seed has a 35% chance of advancing past a seven seed, and 11 seed has a 31% chance of advancing past a 6th seed, and a12 seed has a 31% chance of advancing past a fifth seed.

An 8 seed vs a 9 seed are pretty equal (45% vs 55%) but they have only a 6% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen, that's because they get a number one in the second round, and I don't want to play Wichita St on that neutral court in StLouis, or Arizona on that "neutral" court in San Diego, or Kansas on that "neutral court" in St Louis, or Florida on that "neutral" court in Orlando.

However a 10 seed's chances of making the Sweet 16 is three times better, an 11 seed's chances are twice as good, and even a 12th seed's chances are 2.5 times better.

But, hell win out vs SH, and 'Nova, win the tournament, and get a top five seed.

BTW, the last time our record at MSG lifetime is 9-4 (two different buildings but nevertheless MSG).

So, you would rather be on the bubble and sweat through selection Sunday than be an 8 or 9 seed. No thank you.

[Xavier]

I would like our chances against Wichita st....

[American X]

"Never tell me the odds." - Semaj Christon

[xuwin]

People are not giving Wichita St enough respect. They were in the final 4 last year and went undefeated this year in the regular season.

[nuts4xu]

I would like our chances against Wichita st....

Be careful what you wish for. They don't have a big name, but they are a final four team who returned nearly everyone from that squad, and haven't lost all season.

[Always Learning]

So, you would rather be on the bubble and sweat through selection Sunday than be an 8 or 9 seed. No thank you.

"Win" ... Of course not. And we won't be on the bubble selection Sunday. Bubble teams don't get 8/9 seeds ... they get to go to Dayton.

8/9 seeds go to "what do we do with them?" category, and maybe before last week we fit that ... but not any longer.

[beatuc]

Be careful what you wish for. They don't have a big name, but they are a final four team who returned nearly everyone from that squad, and haven't lost all season.

They have also had some close calls against very bad teams. Wichita is no gimmee, but if X were an 8 or 9 seed please give them the Shockers in the second round.

[GoMuskies]

I want the lowest number possible as our seed. 12 seeds get to the Sweet Sixteen more often? That's great, but 8/9 seeds get to the Final Four more often. Just happened last year in fact.

[xubrew]

A #1 seed is probably the most vulnerable in the round of 32. Whereas the winner of the 8v9 game is pretty sure who they'll be playing and knows how to prepare, the #1 seed is not. Also, more often than not, the crowd is rooting for the 8/9 seed. It's just that it's easier to beat the 30th best team than it is to beat the 13th-16th best team, so the #1 seed wins as much as they do in the round of 32.

If a #10 seed has ever beaten a #1, I don't remember it. I can only remember twice that a #11 seed beat a #1, and that was VCU and George Mason. I'm not so sure a #12 has ever done it. The 8/9 seeds fair much better against the #1 seeds than the 10s, 11s and 12s.

[GetUp5]

They have also had some close calls against very bad teams. Wichita is no gimmee, but if X were an 8 or 9 seed please give them the Shockers in the second round.

A lot has been said about their SOS since they're in the Valley.

Wichita's SOS as of this morning = 111. Louisville? 107.

Wichita is actually 1 of about 3 teams I would want to avoid- Arizona and Florida being the other 2.

[LA Muskie]

People are not giving Wichita St enough respect. They were in the final 4 last year and went undefeated this year in the regular season.

Have you looked at their schedule? 25 of their 31 wins -- that's right, over 80% -- have been against teams with 100+ RPI's. Their best win of the season was against SLU.

They deserve credit for not having a bad loss. It's tough not to drop 1 of 31 regardless the competition. But that's about all I'll give them.

[THRILLHOUSE]

A #1 seed is probably the most vulnerable in the round of 32. Whereas the winner of the 8v9 game is pretty sure who they'll be playing and knows how to prepare, the #1 seed is not. Also, more often than not, the crowd is rooting for the 8/9 seed. It's just that it's easier to beat the 30th best team than it is to beat the 13th-16th best team, so the #1 seed wins as much as they do in the round of 32.

If a #10 seed has ever beaten a #1, I don't remember it. I can only remember twice that a #11 seed beat a #1, and that was VCU and George Mason. I'm not so sure a #12 has ever done it. The 8/9 seeds fair much better against the #1 seeds than the 10s, 11s and 12s.

3 #11 seeds have beaten a 1 and no 10 or 12 seeds have ever beaten a 1 seed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Championship_upse ts

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds

[Kahns Krazy]

A #1 seed is probably the most vulnerable in the round of 32. Whereas the winner of the 8v9 game is pretty sure who they'll be playing and knows how to prepare, the #1 seed is not. Also, more often than not, the crowd is rooting for the 8/9 seed. It's just that it's easier to beat the 30th best team than it is to beat the 13th-16th best team, so the #1 seed wins as much as they do in the round of 32.

If a #10 seed has ever beaten a #1, I don't remember it. I can only remember twice that a #11 seed beat a #1, and that was VCU and George Mason. I'm not so sure a #12 has ever done it. The 8/9 seeds fair much better against the #1 seeds than the 10s, 11s and 12s.


3 #11 seeds have beaten a 1 and no 10 or 12 seeds have ever beaten a 1 seed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Championship_upse ts

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds

Assuming that brew didn't look that up, since he was missing one 11 seed, that is some really impressive memory around seeds and upsets. Reps to brew.

[GoMuskies]

They deserve credit for not having a bad loss. It's tough not to drop 1 of 31 regardless the competition. But that's about all I'll give them.

It's also all the same guys who went to the Final Four last year.

[Kahns Krazy]

When X is playing well, I think they can play with almost anyone. If they have a great game on Saturday or Sunday of the first weekend, they can beat whoever they play. You don't win championships by hoping your bracket is favorable. You knock the f'er off the top and then challenge anyone else to come take the #1 slot away from you.

After some of the discussions on this board in the last few weeks, I will take that 8 seed happily.

[xuwin]

Have you looked at their schedule? 25 of their 31 wins -- that's right, over 80% -- have been against teams with 100+ RPI's. Their best win of the season was against SLU.

They deserve credit for not having a bad loss. It's tough not to drop 1 of 31 regardless the competition. But that's about all I'll give them.

I'll give them more credence for the fact that they are a final four team that has most of their starters back that went undefeated this year. I try not to get schedule obsessed.

[RealDeal]

I'm hoping for a 16 so we can do what has never been done.

[bleedXblue]

Have you looked at their schedule? 25 of their 31 wins -- that's right, over 80% -- have been against teams with 100+ RPI's. Their best win of the season was against SLU.

They deserve credit for not having a bad loss. It's tough not to drop 1 of 31 regardless the competition. But that's about all I'll give them.

31-0

Enough said for me

Would I rather play them than Arizona or Duke? Yes, but to diminish 31-0 is pretty silly.

Think about all the good teams X has had over the years, playing in a sub par A-10 and we never even remotely came close to undefeated

[LA Muskie]

31-0

Enough said for me

Would I rather play them than Arizona or Duke? Yes, but to diminish 31-0 is pretty silly.

Think about all the good teams X has had over the years, playing in a sub par A-10 and we never even remotely came close to undefeated
Don't get me wrong -- I don't intend to diminish their accomplishment. I agree that going undefeated in any league is a big deal. And the fact that they made the Final Four last year, with mostly the same personnel, is also a good point. But they have not remotely played a gauntlet of a schedule, so I think there justifiably are questions about how they stack up vis-a-vis others. There certainly are several teams with 2, 3 -- hell, as many as 7 -- losses that I'd want to avoid before I got to Wichita State.

[GoMuskies]

People talk about wanting to avoid Kansas, but Kansas sure does lose a lot for a team people are desperate to avoid. They've been relatively prone to the early Tournament exit, too.