Now That We're Virtual NCAA Tournament Locks

[GoMuskies]

I'm comfortable looking back at just how close this season was to being irrevocably derailed:

Evansville finished 13-18 and in 9th place in the 10 team Missouri Valley. RPI? 232. Xavier trailed almost the whole game, including by 13 with 12 to play.

Bowling Green is currently 12-17 and in last place in the MAC East. RPI? 175. After leading by 11 with 5:30 to play, it took a minor miracle for Xavier to tie the game at the end of regulation and force OT.

A season truly is a lifetime, and thank God those potential resume-killers didn't essentially shorten this season's life!

[XUOWNSUC]

I'm not so sure Xavier is a lock yet. Three straight losses combined with some other teams getting hot at the right time might be enough to put Xavier on the wrong side of the bubble. Would you still feel confident about making the tournament if Xavier drops its next three games (one of them being to a team with a losing record)? I think Xavier needs to win one more to remove any doubt about making the tournament.

With that said, I can't believe how I already forgot about how close the above games were until you reminded me about them. That just goes to show how a win is a win and how a season is truly a lifetime.

[XUFan09]

I'd still be pretty confident in Xavier's chances of making the tournament if they lose the next three. There would have to be more bubble teams than usual doing well and more no-chance teams getting the auto-bid for Xavier to even have a chance of missing the tournament.

Someone tweeted that Mizzou looked like an NIT team. Jerry Palm responded that there will be about half a dozen teams in the field that could be described that way. This is why I'm not too worried in that worse-case scenario.

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[XUGRAD80]

A 20-12 record would not give me any confidence come selection Sunday. I don't think it is a done deal by any means. My feeling is that a win in the conference tourney makes it such, as one win puts them into the semis.

Just win tonight, then worry about what happens next.

[Masterofreality]

Semaj had to make 2 free throws to tie the BG game...and he did.

He was shooting about 50% from the line at that point.

The season is a lifetime...made up of very, very important moments.

[BTR MUSKIE]

I'm comfortable looking back at just how close this season was to being irrevocably derailed:

Evansville finished 13-18 and in 9th place in the 10 team Missouri Valley. RPI? 232. Xavier trailed almost the whole game, including by 13 with 12 to play.

Bowling Green is currently 12-17 and in last place in the MAC East. RPI? 175. After leading by 11 with 5:30 to play, it took a minor miracle for Xavier to tie the game at the end of regulation and force OT.

Those games seem like a lifetime ago.You always have a few games you are lucky to win and a few you let slip away(Iowa).I would feel a lot better with one more win whether tonight or Thursday.Win both and I think we can start talking about a decent seed.

A season truly is a lifetime, and thank God those potential resume-killers didn't essentially shorten this season's life!
Those games seem like a lifetime ago.We certainly were lucky to pull those out but also let one against Iowa slip away.I'll feel better with a win tonight or thursday

[The_Mack_Pack]

Beat Seton Hall and Xavier is a lock. Lose to Seton Hall and things could get a little dicey.

[XUOWNSUC]

I'd still be pretty confident in Xavier's chances of making the tournament if they lose the next three.

Looking at most of the bracket projections which are out there (and updated to take into consideration the Creighton game) Xavier is seeded as either a 10 or an 11 (btw - I think an 11 seed for Xavier as of now is absurd - Xavier is more like a 9 or a 10 right now). That isn't safe. If Xavier loses the last three games, I think it is possible that 6 to 8 teams can jump ahead of us and put us on the wrong side of the bubble.

Bottom line - just win. Especially tonight.

[XUFan09]

You're putting too much faith in the bubble teams. A number of them would have to do what they need to do, which historically doesn't happen. Is there a chance if they lose the next three? Sure. But still, the odds are pretty nicely in Xavier's favor. Not 100% but definitely not 50% either.

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[XU-XHI]

Win tonight and I'm breathing easy. Lose tonight and I don't breathe easy until we win one of the following 2. This is the NCAA we are talking about and stranger things have happened.

[LadyMuskie]

Bottom line - leave nothing to chance. Don't give the selection committee even the slightest bit of fodder for keeping us out. We've all seen those teams on selection Sunday that were "sure locks" according to the experts wind up sitting out the big dance. We can't rest on our laurels just because we beat Creighton. We need to win tonight and a win Thursday would be a huge help. It also wouldn't hurt to make a strong showing in NYC. Nothing is set in stone until the field is finalized and announced because every year there are surprises and teams get left out that everyone was sure would be in.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I remember last season when Oregon landed a 12 seed everyone was in shock. That was an 8 loss team who beat multiple ranked teams and won the Pac-12 tournament. They could've been left out if they didn't win that thing. They then went on to show how dumb the committee was for seeding them that low by spanking OK State and Saint Louis but still you never know.

[DETROIT]

I believe Bobinski is the committe chair this year and he can sit in the room when X is discussed. I would think he would be an advocate for us.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I believe Bobinski is the committe chair this year and he can sit in the room when X is discussed. I would think he would be an advocate for us.

I think last season was his final season at the helm, I could be mistaken though.

[xufan2434]

Do you guys really want an 8 or a 9 seed? I sure as hell don't. I like getting to the second weekend and I'd rather not have to play a 1 to get there. If X wins their last two game and 1 game in the tournament that might get them to a 7 or maybe even a 6 if teams keep losing. I'll take whatever seed besides an 8 or a 9.

However, Villanova looked really damn good yesterday in handling Marquette. Gonna be another whale of a game

[Masterofreality]

I believe Bobinski is the committe chair this year and he can sit in the room when X is discussed. I would think he would be an advocate for us.


I think last season was his final season at the helm, I could be mistaken though.

Bobo...Gonzo

[Xavier]

Do you guys really want an 8 or a 9 seed? I sure as hell don't. I like getting to the second weekend and I'd rather not have to play a 1 to get there. If X wins their last two game and 1 game in the tournament that might get them to a 7 or maybe even a 6 if teams keep losing. I'll take whatever seed besides an 8 or a 9.

However, Villanova looked really damn good yesterday in handling Marquette. Gonna be another whale of a game

Normally I agree with you but this year there are only a few teams I don't want to see. I wouldn't mind this bracket really, after AZ injury they are a beatable 1. And while I think Wichita St. Is solid, I'd be thrilled if they were a 1 we play. Just saying, I'm not as scared at the possibility of facing some of these possible one seeds in the second round.

[XUFan09]

Do you guys really want an 8 or a 9 seed? I sure as hell don't. I like getting to the second weekend and I'd rather not have to play a 1 to get there. If X wins their last two game and 1 game in the tournament that might get them to a 7 or maybe even a 6 if teams keep losing. I'll take whatever seed besides an 8 or a 9.

However, Villanova looked really damn good yesterday in handling Marquette. Gonna be another whale of a game

I kinda agree, though I'm more concerned with match-ups.

And despite what I've been saying about how our chances are good, even in the worst-case scenario, I agree with Lady: Leave nothing to chance.

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[Kahns Krazy]

I just ran an analysis that shows that if we run the table from here out we are the 1 seed on April 8th.

[XU3232]

Do you guys really want an 8 or a 9 seed? I sure as hell don't. I like getting to the second weekend and I'd rather not have to play a 1 to get there. If X wins their last two game and 1 game in the tournament that might get them to a 7 or maybe even a 6 if teams keep losing. I'll take whatever seed besides an 8 or a 9.

However, Villanova looked really damn good yesterday in handling Marquette. Gonna be another whale of a game

I agree.. 8 or 9 seed would be terrible (unless it is Wichita St.) I'd much rather be a 10 or possibly even an 11...

[paulxu]

If I'm not watching the Muskies play the weekend of March 20th, I'm blaming Go for starting this jinx laden thread.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I don't care what our seed is as long as we get in. With the way this plays on the road and on neutral courts, getting to the second weekend would be pretty outstanding, but getting out of the 2nd round would be great as well.

[Masterofreality]

As opposed to other years, there is not one overly dominant team.

Just win baby and start dancing...it might never stop!

[THRILLHOUSE]

If I'm not watching the Muskies play the weekend of March 20th, I'm blaming Go for starting this jinx laden thread.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[sgarcia]

Hello bubble. Nice to see you again.

[LadyMuskie]

Let tonight's game be a reminder that we should never start another thread like this again ever. Ever. I don't care if we're undefeated. Never. Never. Again.

[mistabeecee41]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

agreed. 3 sub 150 rpi losses for a team heading into the tourney on an 0-3 stretch would make for a very interesting profile.

[gladdenguy]

Also losing their starting center for the year. Hello NIT.

[XUFan09]

Forget everything that was said. If Stainbrook is done for the season, the Committee is going to judge this team based on his absence.

Even worse, if it's an ACL tear, his career is pretty much over, barring an exemption to get a 6th year a la Creighton's Grant Gibbs. I have no idea how NCAA decides those exemptions and if it's like anything else they do, it's not consistent.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I have no idea how NCAA decides those exemptions and if it's like anything else they do, it's not consistent).

I imagine it goes something like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

[mid major]

Yep. Talk about the ultimate jinx thread. We need to muster some king size "cojones" to beat Nova on Thu otherwise we're in trouble. If the season ended today we would probably be in but just a little over a week ago the SEC had two teams in and now they are probably looking at four teams. So if we can't win on Thu and lose to the Redmen the following Thu then we are going to be on the bubble big time.

[GetUp5]

You know what is really funny... Once in a blue moon I wander over to UD Pride to check out the mental state of the dumps fan base. Had to check this morning because of this talk that they're on the bubble.

I open up their 'Bubble Watch' thread and what's the first thing I see? Conversation about how their top 50 record is better than...'the school down south'.

I proceed back to the main page after laughing and see an ENTIRE THREAD dedicated to X, made last night, with 16 posts.

We may be having a shitty year, but remember, we'll never be Dayton, and that is a good thing.

[Fireball]

Assuming that Stainbrook is out, I think we really just need not to look overmatched in the next couple games. Play a close game against Nova and in the first round of the BE tournament, then we show we can compete at the same talent level as we were before. A win in either game and we're solid, but the team just has to show it's not going to get trucked without Stainbrook on the floor.

[The_Mack_Pack]

We have to win another game. If we lose the next two then the committee will see we're not the same team without Stainbrook and give us the Saint Mary's/ Patty Mills treatment and send us to the NIT.

[GoMuskies]

Hey, just think how screwed we'd be right now if we'd lost to Bowling Green and/or Evansville, right?

[danaandvictory]

We have to win another game. If we lose the next two then the committee will see we're not the same team without Stainbrook and give us the Saint Mary's/ Patty Mills treatment and send us to the NIT.

This is our concern, Dude.

[xubrew]

Hey, just think how screwed we'd be right now if we'd lost to Bowling Green and/or Evansville, right?

Yup. You gotta win the big ones, and you can't lose the small ones.

I think the best way to avoid bad losses is to not play bad teams. Those are the games where you truly do have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

[GoMuskies]

You cannot really avoid midde of the road MVC and MAC teams for buy games. You just have to win those games.

[paulxu]

If I'm not watching the Muskies play the weekend of March 20th, I'm blaming Go for starting this jinx laden thread.

Bump.

[GoMuskies]

Tell ya what, if Xavier doesn't make the Tournament, I'll buy you all the beer you can drink the first weekend of the Tournament. So long as you consume those beers in Wichita, KS (I'll allow Andover, KS as well).

[xubrew]

You cannot really avoid midde of the road MVC and MAC teams for buy games. You just have to win those games.

If you insist on playing buy games, you're right.

[GoMuskies]

You suggest NOT playing buy games?

[xubrew]

You suggest NOT playing buy games?

As crazy as not playing any at all would be, I don't think I'd vote against it.

Buy games do so little for you. There is no reward for winning them, and all kinds of punishment for losing them. It's bad basketball for the fans if you win them like you're supposed to, and it kills your profile if you do end up losing them. In the RPI, and in just about every power ranking, it's better to go 2-1 on the road than it is to go 3-0 at home against the same three teams. So, beating up on easy teams at home is the least effective way for a good team to establish itself.

I do think that it's good to play a few of them. It allows your bench to get more minutes than they normally would, and if you schedule the right ones, it can help you get a look at styles of play that you're going to see later in the year. But, like cup cakes (which is another name of them), the less junk food you eat, the better off you probably are.

No team makes the NCAA Tournament because of the wins they picked up in their buy games.

[Masterofreality]

As crazy as not playing any at all would be, I don't think I'd vote against it.

Buy games do so little for you. There is no reward for winning them, and all kinds of punishment for losing them. It's bad basketball for the fans if you win them like you're supposed to, and it kills your profile if you do end up losing them. In just about every power rating, it's better to go 2-1 on the road than it is to go 3-0 at home against the same three teams.

I do think that it's good to play a few of them. It allows your bench to get more minutes than they normally would, and if you schedule the right ones, it can help you get a look at styles of play that you're going to see later in the year. But, like cup cakes (which is another name of them), the less junk food you eat, the better off you probably are.

Tell that to the rank(ed) Borecats. 3 cake wins while we were in The Bah-hamas.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I like the first few games of the season to be buy-games to get the team into playing shape but mid-December buy-games I'd rather not see. Give me a couple more non-con road games against some good competition.

[paulxu]

Tell ya what, if Xavier doesn't make the Tournament, I'll buy you all the beer you can drink the first weekend of the Tournament. So long as you consume those beers in Wichita, KS (I'll allow Andover, KS as well).

This might be the ultimate lose-lose proposition.
A. I drink bourbon, not beer
B. Travelling to Wichita after we DON'T make the Tournament.

Let me get back to you on this.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Tell that to the rank(ed) Borecats. 3 cake wins while we were in The Bah-hamas.

Just wait and see how they're "rewarded" seeding wise by the committee. UC fans won't be happy.

[paulxu]

I think the best way to avoid bad losses is to not play bad teams. Those are the games where you truly do have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

= Dayton

[Masterofreality]

Just wait and see how they're "rewarded" seeding wise by the committee. UC fans won't be happy.

But they are a "lock" to be in.

[xubrew]

Tell that to the rank(ed) Borecats. 3 cake wins while we were in The Bah-hamas.


But they are a "lock" to be in.

Please tell me you're not under the impression that the reason for UC being a lock is because they beat up on NCCU, Campbell and someone else. UC won other key games. They're not where they are because of the cupcakes they beat up on. If UC was in for that reason, then Xavier would also be in for their wins over Bowling Green, Evansville and Gardner Webb.

[TapsPlunkett]

This isn't the NFL- you don't need to disclose injuries - X needs to release that Stain is going to be back for the NCAA so that the selection committee doesn't drop them out. They do take injuries into consideration.

[SemajParlor]

Is there a precedent where an injury knocked out a borderline team? Seems like factoring a potential Stainbrook injury into the decision making process might be getting overblown.

[xubrew]

Is there a precedent where an injury knocked out a borderline team? Seems like factoring a potential Stainbrook injury into the decision making process might be getting overblown.

Several. Creighton probably gets in in 2006 if they don't lose Josh Dotzler.

Cincinnati that same year.

Saint Mary's was left out when they had Patty Mills, even though they got him back, because he wasn't at full strength. The committee basically said that was the deciding factor.

I don't know if it was the deciding factor, but Kentucky losing Nerlins Noel last year certainly didn't help.

[Masterofreality]

Please tell me you're not under the impression that the reason for UC being a lock is because they beat up on NCCU, Campbell and someone else. UC won other key games. They're not where they are because of the cupcakes they beat up on. If UC was in for that reason, then Xavier would also be in for their wins over Bowling Green, Evansville and Gardner Webb.

3 less losses puts us at 23-7. I'd like to see what our computer ranking would be. We have "key wins" too, including whipping their ass.

Maybe XU09 can run an RPI simulation if XU played UMass Lowell, South Carolina Upstate and Kennesaw State rather than Iowa, Tenessee and USC. Those are who the Borecats played in the same window. Yeah, they played NC State, but we plays Tennessee at home too. There is no defense for what they did, Brew.

They've lost 5 in an easier conference with a potential loss to Memphis coming up. We could have only lost 7. They are a "lock" and ranked, and we are still "bubble" in many minds. It's BS. Period.

[GoMuskies]

I'm not sure USC is better than UMass Lowell, USC Upstate or Kennesaw State.

[Masterofreality]

I'm not sure USC is better than UMass Lowell, USC Upstate or Kennesaw State.

Well, they beat the dump in the commode.

Oh...wait....

[OTRMUSKIE]

If Xavier wouldn't have played in that tournament they would be 20-7 with an RPI of 24 and SOS of 34. And 100% a lock.

[Muskie]

If Xavier wouldn't have played in that tournament they would be 20-7 with an RPI of 24 and SOS of 34. And 100% a lock.

Assuming we hadn't subbed some of those games for road games.... Perhaps

[Masterofreality]

If Xavier wouldn't have played in that tournament they would be 20-7 with an RPI of 24 and SOS of 34. And 100% a lock.

Say we played the 3 schools listed above and were 23-7?

[LA Muskie]

Um... Our SOS and their SOS are separated by only 13 spots (we're currently at 53 they are at 66). They may have played an easier schedule over the Thanksgiving weekend, but they also played at New Mexico, on neutral courts against us and Pitt, and at home against NC State, Middle Tennessee State, and Nebraska in the OOC. They've got big road wins at Memphis and at Louisville (although the latter is cancelled out by a tough home loss to them). Let's get off our high horses...their schedule wasn't materially easier than ours. They are pretty damn close, and with the exception of us crushing them they have fared significantly better than we have. Especially away from home.

[XUFan09]

Um... Our SOS and their SOS are separated by only 13 spots (we're currently at 53 they are at 66). They may have played an easier schedule over the Thanksgiving weekend, but they also played at New Mexico, on neutral courts against us and Pitt, and at home against NC State, Middle Tennessee State, and Nebraska in the OOC. They've got big road wins at Memphis and at Louisville (although the latter is cancelled out by a tough home loss to them). Let's get off our high horses...their schedule wasn't materially easier than ours. They are pretty damn close, and with the exception of us crushing them they have fared significantly better than we have. Especially away from home.

I think people are just used to Cincinnati playing abysmal schedules that they don't realize this season it isn't downright awful. The Bearcats projected non-conference SOS is 106th. That's not good, but it's not horrible either. Xavier's is projected at 86th, so not amazingly better. Like Xavier, though, Cincinnati's major flaw is that they only scheduled one non-conference road game.

[casualfan]

Tell that to the rank(ed) Borecats. 3 cake wins while we were in The Bah-hamas.

I know I've asked this before, but it just keeps happening. Does everything have to come back to UC with you?

I mean, I get it to a certain degree. They are a crosstown rival and all, but more often than not it seems like you find a way to steer the discussion back to UC.

I don't know about anyone else, but it seems a bit odd to me.

[XUFan09]

I like the first few games of the season to be buy-games to get the team into playing shape but mid-December buy-games I'd rather not see. Give me a couple more non-con road games against some good competition.

Yeah, I didn't like the Evansville and Bowling Green games on the schedule and especially didn't like both of them. Hell, they could have been road games and at least softened the blow. It proved fortuitous, based on the implosion in the Bahamas and the need to recover from that, but those circumstances were so unusual that there's no way that could have been predicted.

[casualfan]

Um... Our SOS and their SOS are separated by only 13 spots (we're currently at 53 they are at 66). They may have played an easier schedule over the Thanksgiving weekend, but they also played at New Mexico, on neutral courts against us and Pitt, and at home against NC State, Middle Tennessee State, and Nebraska in the OOC. They've got big road wins at Memphis and at Louisville (although the latter is cancelled out by a tough home loss to them). Let's get off our high horses...their schedule wasn't materially easier than ours. They are pretty damn close, and with the exception of us crushing them they have fared significantly better than we have. Especially away from home.

Thank you. I was working up the motivation to put together a post like this until I read yours and thought "my thoughts exactly".

It makes me sick that despite all our recent success some people still can't talk about Xavier without making everything a comparison to UC. It screams little brother and it absolutely drives me up a wall.

Do you think that UC fans give a shit about X other than for a few days before and maybe a few days after the shootout? I don't visit any UC messageboards, but maybe someone who does can speak to how often discussions on those boards come back to a pissing match about UC vs. XU? I doubt it happens very often if at all.

[xufan2434]

It makes me sick that despite all our recent success some people still can't talk about Xavier without making everything a comparison to UC. It screams little brother and it absolutely drives me up a wall.

EXACTLY.. If you've looked at Joe Lunardi's twitter the last 24 hours, it's the same exact thing Dayton fans are doing about X

[casualfan]

EXACTLY.. If you've looked at Joe Lunardi's twitter the last 24 hours, it's the same exact thing Dayton fans are doing about X

No doubt about it.

[Masterofreality]

I know I've asked this before, but it just keeps happening. Does everything have to come back to UC with you?

I mean, I get it to a certain degree. They are a crosstown rival and all, but more often than not it seems like you find a way to steer the discussion back to UC.

I don't know about anyone else, but it seems a bit odd to me.

Brew stated that buy games "do little for you". I responded with the best example that refutes that statement. The Borecats played a horrific non-conference schedule with almost all buy games. Period. Why do you obsess about what I write? Are you writing a paper on psychological profiles? Whatever, man.


EXACTLY.. If you've looked at Joe Lunardi's twitter the last 24 hours, it's the same exact thing Dayton fans are doing about X

Except that Xavier smoked that school across town, and has had the win advantage for years head to head. We have scoreboard...something that udump wishes it had. Big difference to have a record that backs you up rather than delusional dreams.

[XUFan09]

The Borecats played a horrific non-conference schedule with almost all buy games.

Unless you're very lenient on the use of the expression "horrific," that's just false. I also wonder how you evaluate Xavier's non-conference schedule if that's the case. Objectively, they aren't that far apart.

UC's Projected OOC SOS: 106
X's Projected OOC SOS: 86

Ours is better but not significantly so, maybe one tier better.

[casualfan]

Brew stated that buy games "do little for you". I responded with the best example that refutes that statement. The Borecats played a horrific non-conference schedule with almost all buy games. Period. Why do you obsess about what I write? Are you writing a paper on psychological profiles? Whatever, man.



Except that Xavier smoked that school across town, and has had the win advantage for years head to head. We have scoreboard...something that udump wishes it had. Big difference to have a record that backs you up rather than delusional dreams.


I'm not sure why you have to get defensive. I think it's a legitimate question. I mean, do you see how that may come off as little brother-ish?

I understand you wanting to use other teams to prove your case, but when it seemingly comes back to UC every single time it just strikes me as odd.

I mean you realize that most big time D1 schools play an OOC schedule that consists of mostly buy games right?

We played 6 buy games. They played 7.

[casualfan]

Unless you're very lenient on the use of the expression "horrific," that's just false. I also wonder how you evaluate Xavier's non-conference schedule if that's the case. Objectively, they aren't that far apart.

UC's Projected OOC SOS: 106
X's Projected OOC SOS: 86

Ours is better but not significantly so, maybe one tier better.

Not only that, but some (not all, but some) of that disparity comes from the fact that they played us and we played them. Since their RPI is much higher than ours that game raised our OOC SOS much more than it raised theirs.

[Masterofreality]

Unless you're very lenient on the use of the expression "horrific," that's just false. I also wonder how you evaluate Xavier's non-conference schedule if that's the case. Objectively, they aren't that far apart.

UC's Projected OOC SOS: 106
X's Projected OOC SOS: 86

Ours is better but not significantly so, maybe one tier better.

09, you're great at stats. What would XU's RPI & SOS be if they played the three schools that I mentioned earlier and was 23-7 vs the Bahamas? Just for grins, plug in Kennesaw State, SC Upstate and UMass Lowell and take away the Iowa, Tennessee and USC losses. This goes back to the poll about Holiday exempt Tournaments and if Xavier is doing it wrong.

[XUFan09]

09, you're great at stats. What would XU's RPI & SOS be if they played the three schools that I mentioned earlier and was 23-7 vs the Bahamas? Just for grins, plug in Kennesaw State, SC Upstate and UMass Lowell and take away the Iowa, Tennessee and USC losses. This goes back to the poll about Holiday exempt Tournaments and if Xavier is doing it wrong.

I saw that comment before and have been thinking about how I could do that. It's a little more complicated than some of the other stats calculations, where I can just turn to a plethora of sites to figure it out, so it would take me more time. Starting a night class in three hours, so it's something I'll have to return to later this week to hopefully calculate.

I can confidently say one thing: USC and USC Upstate have almost identical projected RPIs, but because of the vast RPI difference between Iowa/Tennessee and Kennesaw State/UMass Lowell, Xavier's non-conference SOS would be much worse than what UC's is projected to be. That's not good for tournament chances, regardless of what the RPI is. Remember that a team's personal RPI doesn't technically matter but just has a decent (but not 100%!) correlation with their tournament chances, because its components (record, SOS) factors into the decision.

Honestly, UC's non-conference SOS itself might cost them a seed line. It's a borderline case, whereas Xavier's is (probably) a bit above that border.

[xubrew]

If Xavier wouldn't have played in that tournament they would be 20-7 with an RPI of 24 and SOS of 34. And 100% a lock.

Had we not played in the tournament, we would not have lost to USC, and I agree that we'd be better off but not for the same reasons you and MOR are saying. We'd be better off because we'd have one less loss to a bad team. Not because we had two losses to good teams (well, one to a good team and one to a decent team).

It really isn't Iowa and Tennessee that hurt us. It's the bad USC team we played and lost to. That's my whole point. You don't help yourself when you beat bad teams. You just hurt yourself when you lose to bad teams.

When you adjust our current record for the RPI, it's 15-8. A win over USC would have made us 16-7 with one less bad loss.

You play 29 games if you're not in an exempt tournament. If we don't play in the tournament at all, and played two weak teams at home instead, our adjust record for the RPI would have been 16.2-5 with a lower strength of schedule and the same number of notable wins. That's pretty much the exact same in the eyes of the committee as it would be had we simply beaten USC.

Losing to Iowa and Tennessee (at least to a point) isn't what hurt us. Beating up on cupcakes isn't what helped UC. I cannot believe that anyone would argue against that. How many times does the committee have to leave teams out for playing weak schedules before people realize that you don't benefit from playing and beating weak teams??

Saying that playing a weak out of conference schedule isn't beneficial is kind of like saying that it's darker outside at midnight than it is at noon. It's not even a debatable topic. As so many other people have pointed out, it's not UC's wins over cupcakes that has people looking at them so favorably.

[mid major]

Is it safe to revisit this thread?

[LadyMuskie]

No. It will only be safe when we see Xavier win on Saturday or on a line of the bracket Sunday.