Dance Card

[OTRMUSKIE]

Here is the dance card made by a group of guys who are usually pretty accurate on predicting who makes the dance. These results were before St Johns.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[nuts4xu]

They have been pretty accurate the past 2 years, but I am sure the accurate projections are made after the conference tourneys are completed.

There are too many games and too many things that can happen in the next couple of weeks to predict the entire field with the degree of certainty they witnessed in 2012 and 2013 on this date.

Get back to me 2 weeks from Sunday, and I will put some stock in this. Nice find though, and thanks for the link.

[BandAid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

[SpectorJersey]

All the predictions out there for the brackets all claim they get most of the teams right bc they post a bracket like an hour before the selection and at that point its pretty easy to pin point. Anyone can do it, not that hard.

[bleedXblue]

They have Daytin in and not us.

How accurate can this really be?

[xufan2434]

Maybe it's just me but that doesn't seem that accurate to me... UCLA and Wisconsin are way too high IMO. Cincinnati won't be that low.

Richmond, Minnesota, and Nebraska have all lost in the last two days. And there is no way Dayton is getting in over X.

[nuts4xu]

Richmond, Minnesota, and Nebraska have all lost in the last two days. And there is no way Dayton is getting in over X.

If the predictions were from before our win over St Johns, then none of the losses for Richmond, Minnesota, and Nebraska are factored in either.

[UCGRAD4X]

Xavier pretty much switches spots with St. Johns at 50 - but clearly on the wrong side of the bubble.

This cannot account for conference tourney upsets either.

That is why this Saturday's game is HUGE!!!!!


….but only if they win


….otherwise


….it's not...

[drudy23]

Damnit...I hate these things...all it does is get me second-guessing. We better make it.

[UCGRAD4X]

Damnit...I hate these things...all it does is get me second-guessing. We better make it.

JUST WIN BABY!

That should clear things up quite a bit.

[OTRMUSKIE]

99% chance now and that was before Creighton.

[bobbiemcgee]

We've gone from 100% to 0% to 100% like a yoyo the last couple weeks.

[gladdenguy]

Quite a difference a week makes
Was outside the bubble last week. Now up to line 36 with 11 teams behind us. A 100% chance of a bid and above Memphis.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Another bubble prediction website.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/03/bubble-watch-heading-into-march-3rd.html

Says for now we are definitely in the tournament.

[danaandvictory]

This is another of those things that sends me into MILD PAROXYSMS OF (SUBDUED) RAGE.

Any NCAA tournament projection that assumes "if the season ended today" is worthless, because the season doesn't end today. It's a completely worthless exercise to wonder if 20-9 Xavier would make the tournament because we still play Seton Hall and Villanova and someone else in the BET, and everyone else is playing games. There are like 1,000 data points still to be thrown into the mix.

Moreover, the people who trumpet their accuracy on picking at-large bids based on their last bracket projection posted a few hours before the Selection Show have achieved an accomplishment roughly equivalent to going to work on five consecutive days without shitting your pants.

That said, something like the Bracket Matrix that aggregates 60-70 data points is at least somewhat useful given the wisdom of crowds idea. But a measure that bounces from 0% to 100% based on one result is pointless.

[X-man]

Quite a difference a week makes
Was outside the bubble last week. Now up to line 36 with 11 teams behind us. A 100% chance of a bid and above Memphis.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Another bubble prediction website.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/03/bubble-watch-heading-into-march-3rd.html

Says for now we are definitely in the tournament.

I see that the cryers are also 100% in the field on the Colman site although closer to the cut line than we are.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Lunardi's new bracket has us at a 9 seed which seems about right IMO.

[Backyard Champ]

Don't know if you can get a better draw than that. Arizona the 1 seed and Wisconsin the 2? Sounds good to me.

[xumuskies08]

Lunardi's new bracket has us at a 9 seed which seems about right IMO.

Yep. Seems fair to me. I really hope X can jump up to a 7 seed (or even maybe a 6), but that would probably require winning the last 2 regular season and at least 1 in the BE tourney. I don't want to be in the stupid 8/9 game.

Goes without saying, but a win tonight would be big.

[The_Mack_Pack]

If Xavier wins the next two I think we'll be a 7 seed. An 8/9 seed seems most likely right now with an outside shot at a 6 if we win a couple in the BE tourney.

[OTRMUSKIE]

If X wins tonight they are going to roll the table. If X loses tonight I believe momentum will be lost and they go on to lose out including first game in BET. Tonight is sooooo huge not only for our tournament resume but for continuing momentum. GTown really hurt these kids ego IMO but Mack somehow got it back with two huge wins. I am just not sure if this team has it in them to lose it and bring it back again. Must win tonight!

[Retire33]

Updated through Wednesday's games. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Xavier still 100% in with the final 10 seed if you follow S-curve.

Also surprising is they have Georgetown in at this point but not Providence or St. John's

[The_Mack_Pack]

Georgetown actually has a pretty underrated resume. Non con wins over Kansas State, VCU, and Michigan State all on neutral courts is really good.

[vee4xu]

JUST WIN BABY!

That should clear things up quite a bit.

The just winning is the part that has me very worried. Just never sure which team will show up. The same guys played against both SH and Creighton at Cintas. I was there for both games and am convinced that different beings inhabited the players' bodies in each game.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X still looks good

[OTRMUSKIE]

X up to 37 now but what shocks me is SMU being on the bursts line.

[GIMMFD]

I still feel very good about our chances. Before the season I said we needed 20 wins and thats holding true currently, hopefully get a win to rest our minds. We beat Marquette and we are in.

[Xman95]

Georgetown actually has a pretty underrated resume. Non con wins over Kansas State, VCU, and Michigan State all on neutral courts is really good.

Agreed. And what some people don't realize is that G'town, like Xavier, lost to Seton Hall twice. That SH team wasn't very good, but it was good enough to be a pain in the ass to some strong teams.

[GoMuskies]

That SH team wasn't very good, but it was good enough to be a pain in the ass to some strong teams.

SH is 2-12 against Big East teams not named Xavier or Georgetown. 0-2 against Butler (who is 2-14 against everyone not named Seton Hall). Really, your post should have a period after "That SH team wasn't very good."

[xubrew]

I don't like our chances at all.

We had two wins against solid tournament teams, and one was at home. We also had a noteworthy win at Saint John's. That's good, but is it good enough to offset the following??

We played four neutral floor games, two were against NCAA teams and we won one of them. The other two were against non-NCAA teams, and we lost both of them. USC isn't going to a postseason tournament of any kind barring winning the Pac Twelve Tournament. That's not good.

We lost twice, and once at home, to a Seton Hall team that, like USC, isn't going any place.

A neutral floor loss to Tennessee that is, at best, on the bubble, but most likely outside the bubble. We did beat them at home, but Tennessee only won four road games. Texas A&M and Vanderbilt also beat Tennessee at home.

There are more bad things on our profile than good things, and what's bad is really bad. If you're only decent wins come at home against conference teams, you pretty much have no shot. We do have the neutral floor win against Cincinnati, but that's really it, and I don't think that win is so good that it offsets all the losses to non tournament teams, particularly the two to Seton Hall and the one to USC.

Even if we beat Marquette, I don't think that's enough. Marquette is has a worse profile than we do, and when you beat a team with a worse profile on a neutral floor, it doesn't really do much to make your own profile any better.

Don't misunderstand me. I hope we get in. But, I don't how anyone would think that we're more likely to get in than to be left out at this point. We have more losses to non-NIT teams than we have wins over teams that are solidly in the field, and none of those wins came in true road games. We only have four true road wins, and only one was decent. That is a problem.

[Masterofreality]

EVERY team has flaws. We're better than almost all of the "bubble" teams.

[XUBob]

Maybe I'm overly optimistic but if X hasn't done enough already then the Big East tourney probably won't change much. As fans we look at this as a one game situation all too often. If you listen to those who have served on the committee in the past they look at the season as a whole. It's what you do from Oct. to March. They also talk about challenging yourself with a tough schedule. X meets those criteria, they have two ugly blemishes, USC and Seton Hall at home, as MOR stated other teams have bad losses also. A Marquette win would certainly help but I highly doubt that at this point one game will be make or break. We will see come Sunday.

[XUFan09]

If you look at the Bubble teams, most tend to be Home Warriors. I don't like that Xavier is one too (that's why they are on the Bubble), but it's not like the other teams are winning a lot on the road.

[casualfan]

I don't like our chances at all.

We had two wins against solid tournament teams, and one was at home. We also had a noteworthy win at Saint John's. That's good, but is it good enough to offset the following??

We played four neutral floor games, two were against NCAA teams and we won one of them. The other two were against non-NCAA teams, and we lost both of them. USC isn't going to a postseason tournament of any kind barring winning the Pac Twelve Tournament. That's not good.

We lost twice, and once at home, to a Seton Hall team that, like USC, isn't going any place.

A neutral floor loss to Tennessee that is, at best, on the bubble, but most likely outside the bubble. We did beat them at home, but Tennessee only won four road games. Texas A&M and Vanderbilt also beat Tennessee at home.

There are more bad things on our profile than good things, and what's bad is really bad. If you're only decent wins come at home against conference teams, you pretty much have no shot. We do have the neutral floor win against Cincinnati, but that's really it, and I don't think that win is so good that it offsets all the losses to non tournament teams, particularly the two to Seton Hall and the one to USC.

Even if we beat Marquette, I don't think that's enough. Marquette is has a worse profile than we do, and when you beat a team with a worse profile on a neutral floor, it doesn't really do much to make your own profile any better.

Don't misunderstand me. I hope we get in. But, I don't how anyone would think that we're more likely to get in than to be left out at this point. We have more losses to non-NIT teams than we have wins over teams that are solidly in the field, and none of those wins came in true road games. We only have four true road wins, and only one was decent. That is a problem.

I agree with this.

I don't think you'll find many on here willing to take off the blue shades so I'm sure this post won't be popular, but I agree that we are in trouble , especially given Stains injury.

[xubrew]

EVERY team has flaws. We're better than almost all of the "bubble" teams.

I feel so much better now.

[Xavier]

I feel so much better now.

Well, when compared to other bubble teams, the question is whose resume is better. Two top 15 wins really helps Xavier vs those other bubble teams. Also, I don't see the BE only getting two teams in. So I think Xavier def gets in with a win over Marquette. What would concern me is a GT/St johns run to the BE finals which could knock X out-bc like I said, I think three BE teams definitely get in.

[XUFan09]

Brew, I get the reason for your concern. A 4-6 road record and 1-3 neutral record are not good marks, but they are not awful either. There are only a few bubble teams with better records away from home, and those tend to have other serious flaws. Also, the Committee usually values good wins more than bad losses, albeit not overwhelmingly so.

I do wish X had scheduled a couple road games against projected NIT teams to enhance the road record and pick up some good wins. They probably would have been in better shape right now and just wondering about seeding.

More than anything, though, Xavier is helped by the Bubble sucking.

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[XUFan09]

Add-on: I do think though that the Stainbrook situation makes this murky.

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[XUOHTX]

Brew, I get the reason for your concern. A 4-6 road record and 1-3 neutral record are not good marks, but they are not awful either. There are only a few bubble teams with better records away from home, and those tend to have other serious flaws. Also, the Committee usually values good wins more than bad losses, albeit not overwhelmingly so.

I do wish X had scheduled a couple road games against projected NIT teams to enhance the road record and pick up some good wins. They probably would have been in better shape right now and just wondering about seeding.

More than anything, though, Xavier is helped by the Bubble sucking.

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All I heard was "Bubble Sucking"

[XUFan09]

All I heard was "Bubble Sucking"

Lol

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[X-band '01]

I do believe that one win should be enough to at least put Xavier on the good side of the bubble. It's better to get one win under their belt w/o Stainbrook and at least be able to sell to the committee that they could easily atttibute their most recent losses due to that factor.

Outside of the SEC, how many other conferences really have the potential for a bid thief to sneak out with an automatic bid?

I'll even listen to the argument that Xavier could lose a bid to a middling team like UW-Green Bay and Belmont, but both teams lost conference tournament games at HOME (or home city in the case of Belmont). That's a tough black mark to overcome. BYU has a couple of good wins out of conference, but they also have a lot of stinker losses on their resume as well.

[StanleyOwnsYou]

BYU has a couple of good wins out of conference, but they also have a lot of stinker losses on their resume as well.

Sounds a little familiar….

[OTRMUSKIE]

A little too close but still 100% in.

[waggy]

Interestingly, they still have Providence out, and it's not real close. Dance Card has a pretty good track record too.

[gladdenguy]

That is exactly why we need Creighton to win tonight. A neutral court victory over a top 10 rpi team would jump them over Xavier.

[waggy]

Both St. John's and Providence look better (or at least as good) than a bunch of teams considered in the field by the numerous bracketologist's, when you look at Pomeroy and Sagarin.

[XUFan09]

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Careful, SMU could make the same argument lol.

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[Steve A]

Not sure anyone cares, but Lunardi now has Xavier listed as one of his "locks" on the ESPN scroll. I believe this is the first time X has been listed this way.

[Muskie]

Not sure anyone cares, but Lunardi now has Xavier listed as one of his "locks" on the ESPN scroll. I believe this is the first time X has been listed this way.

Thanks. Good to hear.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Yeah we care that's big news! Just hoping we are not in play n game

[BMoreX]

HolyLandofHoops ‏@HolyLandofHoops 30m

As of now, from ESPN: LAST BYES Arizona State SMU Tennessee Xavier LAST IN Dayton Nebraska Providence BYU

[waggy]

I could see St. John's getting in over Dayton.

[bobbiemcgee]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Masterofreality]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think they're gonna miss on California this year. 63 RPI, 73, Pomeroy.

[OTRMUSKIE]

39 so I would assume X is probably not gonna play in Dayton and I don't think Dayton will either. Too many teams behind us that deserve that honor.

[mohr5150]

Comparing the info for X, Stanford, Arizona State, Tennessee, and Oklahoma State is really interesting. Basically, X has a better or equal record versus top 25 teams and versus top 50 teams than all four of those teams, yet they all have better Sagrin Ratings than X. The middle of the pack is so freaking close. There are so many minor differences. I'm glad I'm not on the selection committee.

[drudy23]

Dance Card right on track after 3 brackets.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Looks like the only team they missed was NC State. But I'm guessing every "bracketologist" missed that one.

[waggy]

NC State is product of ESPN shilling and Wellman being committee head.

[paulxu]

Looks like the only team they missed was NC State. But I'm guessing every "bracketologist" missed that one.

I'm at a loss. I thought the consensus bracketology had us an 11th.

Dance card had us at 39, way ahead of teams not in the "play-in" deal.

NC State was below their cut line. They need to take the "coach K" factor into their calculations next year.
I just don't understand why NC State is not in the play-in versus putting us, or others there.

I'm a dumb sh$t.

[gladdenguy]

Lunardi and Palm had to miss 2....NC State and SMU.

[SlimKibbles]

UMass getting a 6 is an absolute joke. They're 6 seeds better than Xavier?

[The_Mack_Pack]

UMass getting a 6 is an absolute joke. They're 6 seeds better than Xavier?

The A-10 got way too much respect. They have some really inflated seeds.

[BandAid]

Check out bracketmatrix.com. Only one guy had NC St in the field. Well, him and the selection committee I guess.

[paulxu]

Looking back at Dance Card I guess California got the shaft for coach K's pick.

[Masterofreality]

The A-10 got way too much respect. They have some really inflated seeds.

They're the new CUSA. They will all disappear by the end of the first weekend.

[Masterofreality]

I'm convinced that Xavier dropped a seed line because of Matt Stainbrook's injury uncertainty as well as Xavier's proximity to the commode.

I also think that, somehow, the Committee threw XU a bone with NC State and then playing the weakest 5 seed in St. Louis. Finally, St. Louis doesn't play an uptempo pace so they won't try to run us out of the gym, helping our legs.

We have a real shot at winning these first 2.

[Masterofreality]

@FOX19Jeremy: If Xavier beats NC State, Muskies would play SLU at 7:20 EST Thursday in Orlando.

[bobbiemcgee]

I also think that, somehow, the Committee threw XU a bone with NC State and then playing the weakest 5 seed in St. Louis. Finally, St. Louis doesn't play an uptempo pace so they won't try to run us out of the gym, helping our legs.

We have a real shot at winning these first 2.


Gets pretty brutal after that.

[xuwin]

A plausible theory by Ralph Lee is that the committee switched Xavier & Dayton around because they couldn't put Dayton in a play in game at home.

[X-band '01]

They COULD put Dayton in a play-in game (it was allowed), but probably felt they didn't deserve a home-court advantage when they had a dream matchup waiting in Buffalo.

[Masterofreality]

How about this from Katz

"If there was one bubble team that definitely played its way into the field over the weekend with a win it was Providence. The Friars beat Creighton for the Big East tournament title Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Wellman said the Friars weren't in the field Saturday afternoon before tipoff, meaning Providence had to win to get in."

Wow. They were not in the field at all. Seems to me that the Big East has some real reputation building to do to get some more respect......but not as much as the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC. Louisville's seed and SMU being left out show that. That league will be a tire fire after U of L leaves.

Have fun YTG.

[XUFan09]

In retrospect, Providence accomplished nothing in the non-conference schedule and except for two top 25 games (vs. UK, @UMass), didn't play anyone (OOC SOS 194). Maybe they expected La Salle to be a little better than just inside the top 100 and they at least played them on a neutral court.

I don't get the strategy in that scheduling. You're already going to look a little bad in the Selection Committee's eyes for putting together such a weak overall schedule, and you're really living dangerously if the only opportunities to boost the resume are in only two really tough games.

St. John's did the exact same thing, playing vs. Wisconsin and Syracuse at home and then a bunch of crap teams for an OOC SOS of 140. They lost those two games, unsurprisingly, and had nothing to show for their non-conference slate. Hell, they took the time to cram a non-conference game in the middle of the conference schedule, and who did they play? Friggin' Dartmouth.

Marquette's overall non-conference SOS was bad (166th), because their buy games included six teams with an RPI of 286 or worse, but at least they scheduled six top 50 opponents. They set up plenty of opportunities, and they simply weren't good enough to win any of them.

I don't think this year was an issue of the Big East still having to earn a rep. Like SMU, though, you have to earn your spot at least partially in the non-conference schedule, unless you do ridiculously well in the conference schedule. Villanova, Creighton, and Georgetown are the only ones that put together a top 50 non-conference SOS. After Xavier at 89, the next best schedule was DePaul at 126 (no one cares about them), followed by St. John's at 140 (which isn't good for a tournament hopeful).