Rooting Interest: 2/26/14

[Retire33]

I know we all believe X controls it's own destiny over the next three games to garner an at-large birth. That said, I felt like creating this "Rooting interest" can give us all reasons to watch games and root against those teams that could make it interesting down the stretch and those that can help improve X's overall resume; via seeding or at-large berths. I plan to create a new daily thread to continue this and create some additional discussion.

Rooting Interest for 2/26/14

(All games EST)
Richmond @ George Mason 7pm
Alabama @ Ole Miss 8pm (ESPN3) *Currently #118 RPI*
Tennessee @ Mississippi St 8pm (ESPN3) *Currently #58 RPI*
Nebraska @ Illinois 9pm (Big Ten Network)
Baylor @ Texas 9pm (ESPNU)
California @ Arizona 9pm (ESPN2)
Stanford @ Arizona St. 11pm (ESPNU)

Lots of road games that could really benefit X. Alabama getting into top 100 would be a huge plus as would Tennessee into the top 50.

[XBR1]

Nice thread. I like this info while flipping through the channels at night.

[Retire33]

I do this myself so that I can have intense interest in games not directly involving X(when not parlaying). Figured I would post here too.

[GoMuskies]

So we're cheering FOR Tennessee and Alabama and AGAINST the other road teams? I'm torn on Tennessee in that I'd like them to jump into the top 50, but I don't want them moving up in the competition for a coveted Tournament bid.

[paulxu]

Who do I cheer for...Arizona St. or Stanford?

[BandAid]

Arizona St:(19-8, RPI: 32, SOS: 42)
Stanford: (18-8, RPI: 40, SOS: 43)

Az St has lost two in a row, so they got that going for them...

[XUFan09]

If Alabama goes 3-1 down the stretch (unlikely, but we can hope), they're projected to finish the regular season with an RPI of 98.7. They couldn't lose their first conference tournament game. Maybe they could if they went 4-0 down the stretch, for a projected RPI of 83.5. Basically, Alabama has to win 4 of their next 5 or do a little worse than that before going on a run in the conference tournament. It pisses me off, because they were easily in the top 100 of RPI with a Kenpom rank of 58th when Xavier played them. It should have been a top 100, maybe a top 75 road win, but they imploded.

Tennessee made a top 50 finish much harder by losing to a bad A&M team. They have to go 4-0 to finish with a projected RPI of 44.5, and they might have to win their first conference tournament game after that to not fall right back out of the top 50. A 3-1 finish would put them at 54.4, so they might get away with a loss if they win that first conference tournament game.

tl;dr: Alabama and Tennessee need to win 4 of their next 5 (including the first round of the conference tournament) to finish in the top 100 and the top 50 of the RPI, respectively.

Good news: UC just needs to win 2 of their next five games (once again, including the first round) in order to finish in the top 25.

If Wake Forest wins 3 of their next 4, they'll be in the top 100. Duke comes to play them and they'll face a good team in the first round, so it's unlikely. It's not that big of a deal, though, as they were a home win. The Committee isn't really going to care much about a win at home at a marginal top 100 team. Beating the same type of team (i.e. Alabama), on the other hand, looks much better.

[Retire33]

Who do I cheer for...Arizona St. or Stanford?

Bracket Matrix has Stanford as a 8 and Arizona St as a 9. RPI Forecast project Stanford to finish @ 37 and Arizona St to finish @ 36

Arizona St has winnable games after tonight (vs Cal, @ Oregon and @ Oregon St)
Stanford has is a bit tougher (@Arizona, vs Colorado and vs Utah)

I say take the Arizona St. as Stanford could falter with the remaining games more than ASU.

[Retire33]

If Alabama goes 3-1 down the stretch (unlikely, but we can hope), they're projected to finish the regular season with an RPI of 98.7. They couldn't lose their first conference tournament game. Maybe they could if they went 4-0 down the stretch, for a projected RPI of 83.5. Basically, Alabama has to win 4 of their next 5 or do a little worse than that before going on a run in the conference tournament. It pisses me off, because they were easily in the top 100 of RPI with a Kenpom rank of 58th when Xavier played them. It should have been a top 100, maybe a top 75 road win, but they imploded.

Tennessee made a top 50 finish much harder by losing to a bad A&M team. They have to go 4-0 to finish with a projected RPI of 44.5, and they might have to win their first conference tournament game after that to not fall right back out of the top 50. A 3-1 finish would put them at 54.4, so they might get away with a loss if they win that first conference tournament game.

tl;dr: Alabama and Tennessee need to win 4 of their next 5 (including the first round of the conference tournament) to finish in the top 100 and the top 50 of the RPI, respectively.

Good news: UC just needs to win 2 of their next five games (once again, including the first round) in order to finish in the top 25.

If Wake Forest wins 3 of their next 4, they'll be in the top 100. Duke comes to play them and they'll face a good team in the first round, so it's unlikely. It's not that big of a deal, though, as they were a home win. The Committee isn't really going to care much about a win at home at a marginal top 100 team. Beating the same type of team (i.e. Alabama), on the other hand, looks much better.

The good thing is Tennessee has very winnable games down the stretch. Any lose would be an upset.

From RPIforecast.com

2-26 Miss. St. (225.7) SEC A 0-0 85% 11.2
3-1 Vanderbilt (95.5) SEC H 0-0 82% 9.6
3-5 Auburn (170.4) SEC A 0-0 67% 4.7
3-8 Missouri (53.1) SEC H 0-0 71% 5.8

Alabama need to beat Kentucky in Rupp to have a clear shot at top 100. UGHH

[Retire33]

- Richmond scores only 16 in 1st half on way to terrible lose to George Mason (RPI #145).
- Tennessee with seven point road win
- Alabama on their way to another SEC lose down 12 to Ole Miss with two minutes left

[XUFan09]

I feel that minor hope of Alabama finishing in the top 100 disappearing...

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[The_Mack_Pack]

A lot of bubble teams lost tonight which is good for the BE. As far as Alabama climbing into the top 100, that's not going to happen. It would be nice if Morehead State can climb into the top 100, they currently sit at 111. Wake Forest needs to win a couple more to stay in the top 100 as well.

[XUFan09]

A lot of bubble teams lost tonight which is good for the BE. As far as Alabama climbing into the top 100, that's not going to happen. It would be nice if Morehead State can climb into the top 100, they currently sit at 111. Wake Forest needs to win a couple more to stay in the top 100 as well.

It was already discussed that it was a long-shot possibility. A 2-2 finish (when they face three teams outside the top 50, two of them at home) would have put them inside the top 100. Sagarin gave them about a 12% chance of that outcome.

Morehead State, on the other hand, has literally no chance even though their RPI is ahead of Alabama's right now. If MSU wins out the regular season, they move up approximately five spots to 113.

Wake Forest needs to win out to safely finish in the top 100. One loss and they are borderline (projected at 101.9), possibly needing a conference tournament win.

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[GoMuskies]

If Morehead won out, including beating Belmont in the OVC Tournament, I bet they'd sneak inside the top 100.

Of course, that's not going to happen.

[Retire33]

California getting boat raced and Baylor not able to get a signature win @ Texas very much helped X and the rest of the conference

[XUFan09]

If Morehead won out, including beating Belmont in the OVC Tournament, I bet they'd sneak inside the top 100.

Of course, that's not going to happen.

Maybe with a Belmont win but they would face multiple bad teams too. They are the second best team in the conference by RPI at 113 and only two other teams are inside the top 200. They could beat some of these teams and their RPI would still drop.

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[XUFan09]

California getting boat raced and Baylor not able to get a signature win @ Texas very much helped X and the rest of the conference

Sweet!

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