Opportunities

[chico]

The general consensus on this board has been that we have two very hard games to win coming up with Creighton and Nova coming to town, and games we very well could lose. I think I prefer to see these games as opportunities to place ourselves at the top of the Big East along with these two teams. These are the type of games UC fans used to look to when they were in the Big East - games that could catapult you into a pretty good seed in the tourney.

It's such a great situation we're in now - instead of worrying about bad losses and teams we play dragging our RPI down, we now have the chance to beat two top 10 teams and really boost our resume.

Yes, they're certainly not gimmes. But after watching this team tonight, I think we all know Cintas will be one very dangerous place to play for these teams.

[XU 87]

We're going to win both...... or at least one.

If we win 1 of those, we should be in good shape. It would also help to beat Seton Hall on the road.

[chico]

I agree - most likely 1. With Reynolds playing like he is we match up well against Creighton. They don't have an answer for Stainbrook and Christon will be the most athletic player on the court. Nova will be much tougher.

Seton Hall would be a bonus.

[Titanxman04]

Have to have SH. Would be huge to get Nova or Creighton at home. I have to think that the team knows that as well, and would be utterly shocked if they came out flat like they did against GTown.

[XUFan09]

I agree - most likely 1. With Reynolds playing like he is we match up well against Creighton. They don't have an answer for Stainbrook and Christon will be the most athletic player on the court. Nova will be much tougher.

Seton Hall would be a bonus.

If we beat Creighton, the Seton Hall game will affect the seed line. It would be really good to avoid the bad loss and to finish with a 5-5 road record. Also, wins over both Creighton and Seton Hall would probably clinch a 3rd place finish. It would also possibly clinch a 3 seed, as a win over Creighton would be big for tiebreaker purposes.

[cheeba]

As far as the Cintas being a tough place to play these next two games, aren't students going to be on spring break? If so, we need to local students to show up with some serious effort.

[Titanxman04]

Has Xavier ever had back to back home games against top ten teams before? Top 25 teams?

[XUFan09]

Tiebreakers actually could get pretty interesting if Xavier beats Creighton. For simplicity's sake in this theoretical future, I'm going to assume Villanova wins out:

- Xavier has split games with all contenders for the 3 seed, except St. John's. Tie is still present, unless X and SJU are the only two in 3rd place, in which case Xavier gets the 3 seed
- No contenders have a win over the 1st place team, Villanova. On to the next best team
- Xavier, St. John's, and Providence all have wins over the 2nd place team, Creighton. Georgetown has an opportunity to join this group, as Creighton plays at the Verizon Center. Marquette is eliminated in this tiebreaker. Question: If a team is eliminated in an earlier step of a tiebreaker, but the tie across all teams isn't completely resolved, do they survive to the next step? This affects whether or not I have to keep paying attention to Marquette.
- Providence has the opportunity to go 2-0 against Creighton on the road. Unlikely, yes, but it would give them the tiebreaker. Let's assume they don't, though, because it's unlikely.
- Tiebreaker falls to the record against the 3rd place team. Teams in this case, and it obviously depends on which teams are here what the aggregate record is.

- Xavier is 2-0 against SJU, 1-1 against Providence, and 1-1 against Georgetown. 1-1 against Marquette too, if they survive to this step. They would definitely benefit from SJU being in this group of tied teams for tiebreaker purposes.
- St. John's is 0-2 against Xavier, 1-1 against Providence, and 1-1 against Georgetown. 1-0 against Marquette with a road game to be played. If they lose to Marquette or if Marquette isn't in this group or if Marquette doesn't count in this step, their aggregate record is worse than Xavier's, no matter what.
- Providence is 1-1 against all teams except Marquette. They are 0-1 against Marquette, so provided that Marquette counts, they need to win at home against the Golden Eagles. They would still have a worse record than Xavier if SJU is in this tiebreaker group though. If SJU isn't and Marquette doesn't count/Providence beats Marquette, Xavier and Providence are tied.
- Georgetown is 1-1 against all teams except Marquette, who they need to beat on the road (in addition to beating Creighton at home just to reach this step of the tiebreaker). The likelihood aside, if they do that, they are in the same boat as Providence: Losing to Xavier if SJU is in this group and tied with Xavier (and Providence) if SJU isn't.

- I can't remember where the tiebreaker goes to next if this doesn't work. Further down to the line of teams to 5th place, etc.?

tl;dr: St. John's is a great trump card in tiebreakers if Xavier beats Creighton. If they also beat Villanova, they basically win all tiebreakers. Providence has the chance to sweep Creighton for an even better trump card than Xavier sweeping SJU. Georgetown also gets Creighton at home for tiebreaker implications (in addition to traveling to Villanova). Marquette also travels to Villanova and are the only team that matches Xavier in losses.

[PM Thor]

Has Xavier ever had back to back home games against top ten teams before? Top 25 teams?

With doing absolutely no research I can say almost completely assuredly that No, X has never had back to back home games vs top 25 teams. Only time that I can think it might have happened is when UC was ranked as was UMass in the Camby days.

[sirthought]

Can you count the NCAA tournament for this? Surely they've played two top 25 teams in a row in this scenario.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Xavier played #24 VCU and #19 Memphis back to back at home just last season.

[THRILLHOUSE]

With doing absolutely no research I can say almost completely assuredly that No, X has never had back to back home games vs top 25 teams. Only time that I can think it might have happened is when UC was ranked as was UMass in the Camby days.

While the Mack Pack is correct about last year, X did have consecutive home games vs. ranked teams in 1996. X played back to back home games vs #1 UMass and #11 Virginia Tech in their first A10 season.

[Retire33]

I was thinking about this today and figured no better place to ask than here.

How many top 10 teams have visited Cintas? I know of St Joe's in 2004 but cannot recall any others off top of my head. I know there has not been a top 10 team in Cintas since at least 2008-09

[paulxu]

#10 George Washington Feb. 2006.
#6 St. Joe's Jan. 2004
#10 Cincinnati Feb. 2004

[XUFan09]

Wasn't Tennessee top 10 when they visited in the 2006-2007 season?

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[Retire33]

Wasn't Tennessee top 10 when they visited in the 2006-2007 season?

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#12

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=273562752

[Retire33]

#10 George Washington Feb. 2006.
#6 St. Joe's Jan. 2004
#10 Cincinnati Feb. 2004

1-2 Total. Really need to make that 2-2 Saturday afternoon. Looking at old box scores, X led at half of all three games and held lead in last 5 mins.

[OH.X.MI]

Gonna bring this up with the caveat that I have no real opinion on the subject... but when we beat Creighton and Nova, what are peoples thoughts on fans rushing the court? Not saying it will happen, with students on break I doubt it will, but any thoughts?

Edit: thought of this because of Gary Parrish's article today about court rushing and the ongoing debate about when it is or is not appropriate.

[GoMuskies]

Only if it involves a last second shot that wins it. Otherwise, not only no, but HELL no!

[Retire33]

Only if it involves a last second shot that wins it. Otherwise, not only no, but HELL no!

Needs to be spontaneous like UK/IU was a very years back. Not one of those "game out of hand and let's now storm the court in a game that was over at the 4 min timeout". The best court stormings are always the ones that take place before anyone realizes that is took place.

[kyxu]

Gonna bring this up with the caveat that I have no real opinion on the subject... but when we beat Creighton and Nova, what are peoples thoughts on fans rushing the court? Not saying it will happen, with students on break I doubt it will, but any thoughts?

Students would be promptly tased. It would be the most tragic court-storming in college basketball history.

[Filthy Conservative]

I think anyone under 30 should be fatally tased. It's how I'd ration health care.

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[UCGRAD4X]

Only if it involves a last second shot that wins it. Otherwise, not only no, but HELL no!

NFW!

Follow Paul Brown's instructions and "act like you've been there before."

[Xman95]

NFW!

Follow Paul Brown's instructions and "act like you've been there before."

Agreed. Guess what...Villanova and Creighton are both teams in our league and teams we're very capable of beating. No way in hell should Xavier act like it's a huge upset if we win. Have they been better to this point? Absolutely. But it's not like we're chopped liver. Rushing the court should be reserved for the bottom 30 or so teams (consistently in that range) that knock off a Top 10 team. Obviously that's generalized and I'm just guessing on the numbers, but you get the point. To rush the court in a non-tourney setting...it better be a HUGE upset.

[gladdenguy]

XU09,
With that Georgetown loss tonight......if we win one or St. Johns and Georgetown loses one more.....we can't finish worse than 5th?
Standings after tonight

Creighton 13-2 (@Xavier, @Georgetown, Providence)
Villanova 13-2 (Marquette, @Xavier, Georgetown)
Xavier 9-6 (Creighton, @Seton Hall, Villanova)
Marquette 9-6 (@Villanova, @Providence, St. Johns)
Providence 8-7 (@Seton Hall, Marquette, @Creighton)
St. Johns 8-8 (Depaul, @Marquette)
Georgetown 7-9 (Creighton, @Villanova)

Is that correct?

[Retire33]

XU09,
With that Georgetown loss tonight......if we win one or St. Johns and Georgetown loses one more.....we can't finish worse than 5th?
Standings after tonight

Creighton 13-2 (@Xavier, @Georgetown, Providence)
Villanova 13-2 (Marquette, @Xavier, Georgetown)
Xavier 9-6 (Creighton, @Seton Hall, Villanova)
Marquette 9-6 (@Villanova, @Providence, St. Johns)
Providence 8-7 (@Seton Hall, Marquette, @Creighton)
St. Johns 8-8 (Depaul, @Marquette)
Georgetown 7-9 (Creighton, @Villanova)

Is that correct?

Yes, as X owns Tiebreaker over SJU. This is assuming its not a three way or more tie.

[profson]

XU09,
With that Georgetown loss tonight......if we win one or St. Johns and Georgetown loses one more.....we can't finish worse than 5th?
Standings after tonight

Creighton 13-2 (@Xavier, @Georgetown, Providence)
Villanova 13-2 (Marquette, @Xavier, Georgetown)
Xavier 9-6 (Creighton, @Seton Hall, Villanova)
Marquette 9-6 (@Villanova, @Providence, St. Johns)
Providence 8-7 (@Seton Hall, Marquette, @Creighton)
St. Johns 8-8 (Depaul, @Marquette)
Georgetown 7-9 (Creighton, @Villanova)

Is that correct?

I am not sure in the first scenario (XU wins one game), but I don't think that is true if XU wins none:

- if XU wins one game, and St. John's wins its two last games, there are scenarios in which XU would be in a multiple team tie at 10-8, with only Georgetown being eliminated. The tiebreaker to determine the 6th team would not necessarily be decided directly on XU's sweep of St. John's. In other words it might be the case that XU gets eliminated before St. John's. Can't know for sure without knowing the tiebreaker rules for multiple team ties and looking how everyone stacks up, though I feel good that since XU will have a plus record against the tie teams (having swept St. John's and split with all other possible tie teams), you may be right.

- if XU loses the last 3 games, and ends up 9-9, while St. John's gets to 10-8, I think it is clear that XU can still be 6th

- if XU loses the last 3 games, and ends up 9-9, as does St. John's, St. John's get eliminated in a 2-team tie, but there is a chance (remote) of a 3 or 4 or even 5 team tie at 9-9. Again, I don't know if the multiple tie rules could result in XU being eliminated first. The sweep of St. John's probably precludes that given that XU will have a plus record against the tie teams as explained above.

I did all this without pen, paper or computer so I won't be ashamed to be proved wrong.

By the way there is a thread on holylandofhoops.com in which someone ran all possibilities on Wednesday morning (i.e. after XU beat St. John's but not including subsequent games, in particular Marquette-Georgetown tonight). At that time there were 32,768 variations, of which 1078 had XU finishing 6th and 248 had XU finishing 7th. This was on the basis of each game being 50/50. On a probability basis, using rpiforecast.com, XU had 60%, 24%, 12%, 3% and 0% probabilities of coming in 3rd through 7th, respectively. Hopefully he updates it.

[Masterofreality]

Just win, baby.

[XUFan09]

At the Amtrak station, so it's hard to check details, but here are a few things (please correct me if I missed something):
- SJU is a good team to be in any tiebreaker with. It's not a guarantee, but a 2-0 record against them helps.
- In a tie, head-to-head record is first. In a multi-team tie, it's the aggregate record (I mixed this up before and put it after record against 1st and then 2nd place teams).
- Marquette benefits from Georgetown being present in a tiebreaker. They also have a chance to go 2-0 against Providence. Root for Providence in that game (also because Marquette is tied with us right now) to eliminate that advantage. If Xavier wins one game, Georgetown is mathematically eliminated.
- If Xavier wins at least one game and Providence wins against Marquette, the worse Xavier can do is a tie in any aggregate record. And if SJU is present, they win the tiebreaker.
- After that, it's best record descending from the first place team(s). Xavier and Georgetown face both, Marquette faces Villanova, and Providence faces Creighton.
- Providence has a (small) chance of going 2-0 against Creighton.

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[Masterofreality]

At the Amtrak station, so it's hard to check details, but here are a few things (please correct me if I missed something):
- SJU is a good team to be in any tiebreaker with. It's not a guarantee, but a 2-0 record against them helps.
- In a tie, head-to-head record is first. In a multi-team tie, it's the aggregate record (I mixed this up before and put it after record against 1st and then 2nd place teams).
- Marquette benefits from Georgetown being present in a tiebreaker. They also have a chance to go 2-0 against Providence. Root for Providence in that game (also because Marquette is tied with us right now) to eliminate that advantage. If Xavier wins one game, Georgetown is mathematically eliminated.
- If Xavier wins at least one game and Providence wins against Marquette, the worse Xavier can do is a tie in any aggregate record. And if SJU is present, they win the tiebreaker.
- After that, it's best record descending from the first place team(s). Xavier and Georgetown face both, Marquette faces Villanova, and Providence faces Creighton.
- Providence has a (small) chance of going 2-0 against Creighton.

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Public reps, man, because I'm being crushed under the jackbooted heel of oppression.

You are a font of quality knowledge.

[XUFan09]

Haha thanks. Important to add:

Providence and St. John's currently have wins against Creighton, if it goes to that step of the tiebreaker. Yet another reason why Xavier needs to win tomorrow.

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[PM Thor]

Students would be promptly tased. It would be the most tragic court-storming in college basketball history.

Orrr it would be the funniest 10-15 seconds on television.