2014 Kentucky Derby

[BBC 08]

We are coming up on 10 weeks away from the greatest day in all of sports. Thought I'd start a thread so we can talk potential winners and what everyone thinks.

espn has already started posting power rankings on the horses. Here are a couple links worth reading to get everyone in the mind set.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10478389/power-rankings-2014-top-10-kentucky-derby-contenders-week-1

http://espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2014/notebook/_/page/2014KentuckyDerbyCornerNotebookWeek1/kentucky-derby-corner-notebook-week-1

Anyone from XH going to Derby this year? I know I'll be there with some fellow X grads.

[Milhouse]

Pretty sure the greatest Day in all of sports in 4 weeks away not 10.

[GoMuskies]

I got to go on someone else's dime to one of those first turn tent suites a couple of years ago. What a great time.

Still didn't beat the days of sneaking liquor into the infield back in college.

[paulxu]

Still didn't beat the days of sneaking liquor into the infield back in college.

This.

(and the kangaroo court on Monday morning)

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Two important races and one really interesting one Saturday as the Points Schedule (http://www.drf.com/events/road-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs) shifts to "Win and You're In."

The G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83403/top-billing-headlines-fountain-of-youth) features Top Billing and Commissioner two highly regarded colts who finished 1/2 in an key 1 1/16 mile allowance race last month. Commissioner (http://www.drf.com/horse/commissioner) (Todd Pletcher, he of the 41 Triple Crown nominated horses) was best by a neck in that duel and is installed as 3/1 favorite. Top Billing (http://www.drf.com/horse/top-billing) (Shug McGaughey, trainer of last year's KD winner Orb) goes off at 7/2. Commissioner starts from PP 1 while Top Billing drew PP 12 in a 13 horse field. Absolutely less than ideal PPs for the favorites. Don't look past Wildcat Red (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Wildcat_Red) at 6/1.

Did I mention "Win and You're In"? The G2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds (http://www.courier-journal.com/usatoday/article/5629947) in NOLA has 16 entrants looking for an express lane trip up I-65 to Louisville. Vicar's in Trouble (http://www.drf.com/horse/vicars-in-trouble) has already won twice at Fairgrounds and goes off at 5/2. Rise Up (http://www.drf.com/horse/rise-up) (4/1) will try for the pace from PP2 (Vicar's in Trouble will be outside in PP14), Hoppertunity (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hoppertunity) (8/1) goes for Baffert from PP8, and Intense Holiday (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Intense_Holiday) (8/1) , Pletcher's horse in this race goes from PP9. Intense Holiday is getting lots of attention in this spot. He's well-campaigned and Pletcher has HOF jock Mike Smith in for the ride. Rise Up and Intense Holiday.

While it doesn't confer any points toward the Derby, the 6th at Gulfstream on Saturday (http://www.drf.com/race-entries/GP/USA/2014-02-22/D) is a 1 1/16 mile allowance packed with horses who can move on with a win or strong performance. This goes especially for Constitution (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Constitution), a 5/2 Pletcher-trained, Javier Castellano-mounted colt of fine breeding. He broke his maiden first time out at Gulfstream on 1/14, so he's playing from behind for the KYD and this is his first "route" or two-turn race. He's in a tough spot and I'm cheering for him. The race also features the return of G2 Holy Bull Stakes bust-out Wicked Strong (8/1). I really liked him going into that race and he rewarded me with a 9th place finish, earning a "Stopped" in the race chart comment box. He needs to bounce back here or get another plan. Matterhorn, well-regarded Tonalist, and Mexikoma (and who wouldn't enjoy one of those) round out a really intriguing field.

"Mel" and his Racing Form: :read:

Good Racing Luck!

[DART87]

Two important races and one really interesting one Saturday as the Points Schedule (http://www.drf.com/events/road-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs) shifts to "Win and You're In."

"Mel" and his Racing Form: :read:

Good Racing Luck!

What does Mel's Racing Form say about:

We Miss Artie in the FOY and Bond Holder in the Risen Star? Both have won G1 at 1&1/16 and both ran in the BC Juvenile. Neither are getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Dart: Sure, on both counts!

Question on Artie in the FOY would be his turf breeding; he got the 1 1/16 G1 on poly at Keeneland and his other win on turf, then didn't like the dirt in the Breeders' Cup Juvie. He has been training really well and with Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus as his broodmare sire, talent at the distance isn't a problem.

Bond Holder is a Cali shipper who hasn't raced in two months before today's trip in NOLA. His G1 win came on dirt at Santa Anita and he followed up by passing a lot of horses in the stretch of the BC Juvie. As a Mineshaft colt he's got plenty of distance. Training well, too. He's trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez -- the people who brought you I'll Have Another. (Cueing XUPaul on 3, 2, and 1.)

Of the two I like Bond Holder more. Exacta Box: Bond Holder, Intense Holiday, Rise Up.

Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

Hey! I gave you all the horse, called the whole race from bell to wire. It's not my fault you passed up a golden opportunity to retire.

Wish there was I'll Have Another horse somewhere; but trainer/rider is a good deal also.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This week's Derby Watch. (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs)

Check out Candy Boy.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Tomorrow’s John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/TP030114USA-EQB.html#RACE10)(no Derby points at stake) is the local prep for the 50 point G2 Turfway Spiral Stakes on March 22nd.

The Battaglia is wide open and the odds will move quite a bit before post time. There’s no clear Morning Line favorite and lots of entrants between 4/1 and 12/1.

Turfway is on TVG (DirecTV 602) so I see a number of races each meet on the tube. It's not uncommon for frontrunners or longshots or both to prevail in merry-go-round style races. Get the lead and run like hell.

With that in mind: Solitary Ranger, Canzoni, Laddie Boy, Empower all fit the bill. Canzoni is the Plethcer, so you know. Laddie Boy is well-raced at the distance at Keeneland and Churchill. Empower won his last and has solid connections.

Give me Solitary Ranger from PP2, his front running style, his graded stakes experience, two consecutive bullet works, and Wayne Catalano training. He’s 5/1 ML and certainly no lock, no real value if he gets bet down, and no Derby hopeful. A pure action bet.

Curiously, Emmett Park, 12/1, ran in last week’s G2 Risen Star in NOLA. He finished twelfth, twenty lengths back. He’s won twice at TP since December, though.

Hey. Ya never know. :headscratch:

Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

Mel...you need a job.

[GoMuskies]

Wildcat Red is a great name for a horse running a big race in Louisville, Ky.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The 61st renewal of the G3 Gotham Stakes (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Gotham.pdf) (free and legal Past Performances on the link) grabs the spotlight today as the Derby Trail winds its way through New York City. 50 points will get the winner to Louisville . . . if he stays healthy and fit.

The race is instilled with a cherished and hallowed history. Smokin Mel (http://www.sporthorse-data.com/horse/10160710/270/Horse_Smokin_Mel-big.jpg) won the Gotham in 1997.

I rarely allow carried weight (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2014/03/01/weight-a-big-factor-in-gotham.aspx)too much impact on my approach, but today is different.

5/2 Samraat nosed 3/1 Uncle Sigh a few weeks back in the G3 Withers on today’s Aqueduct track. Today, for his effort, Samraat will carry 123 pounds, while his nosed opponent will tote 116. Worth noting. Uncle Sigh is training very well after his hard fought last. I like him.

There are a number of other horses entered who are intriguing as we move to May but with things to prove or put behind them: disappointing last races (Noble Cornerstone), layoff (In Trouble), moving up in class (a few others).

It’s the time of year to sort through all that.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxAX74gM8DY

Something to tide you over until San Felipe Derby and Tampa Bay Derby this weekend.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Worth mentioning that the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-mucho-macho-man-124-pound-highweight-big-cap) (for four-year olds and up; not a Derby prep) runs Saturday afternoon, 3/8.

Fox Sports 1 will feature the race in a 30 minute package on late Saturday afternoon. Check local listings.

Why care? Three standout older division horses: Mucho Macho Man (won last year's Breeders Cup classic), Will Take Charge (last year's 3-year old champ won the Travers and finished second to Mucho Macho Man in the BCC), and Game On Dude (leading older male for last few years).

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

5/2 Samraat nosed 3/1 Uncle Sigh a few weeks back in the G3 Withers on today’s Aqueduct track. Today, for his effort, Samraat will carry 123 pounds, while his nosed opponent will tote 116. Worth noting. Uncle Sigh is training very well after his hard fought last. I like him.

See what happened!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efNk3giXU2w

You gotta love the races.

[xu82]

My simple advice: you don't have to be be a horse racing fan to heed this, you just need to be a fan of life - if you are anywhere close and can make it you should get there. At least once. I said every year I'd get around to it next time. I hate car racing and loud noises, but I regret not catching the Indy 500 too. They say you regret the things you don't do more than the mistakes you regrettably do make. I will try hard to get to a practice round at the Masters sometime soon. Make the sacrifice and live a full and enjoyable life! (Do as I say, not as I hope to do.) Sermon over.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This Week's Derby Watch (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs) of top 20 contenders.

Good Racing Luck!

[GoMuskies]

On a semi-related note, I bought tickets yesterday for the Preakness. I haven't been since 2000 when Fusaichi Pegasus was supposed to destroy the field. I was in the infield that day, but I actually have seats in the stands in the dump that is Pimlico this time. I know they have cleaned up the infield act at Pimlico in the years since 2000 (I think the infield is essentially a Lorde concert this year), but I was scared for my life in that infield. I've done the Derby infield on a number of occasions, and there was absolutely no comparison. At the time, you were allowed to bring cans of beer into the infield, and people used them as missiles. I would never do that again!

[BMoreX]

On a semi-related note, I bought tickets yesterday for the Preakness. I haven't been since 2000 when Fusaichi Pegasus was supposed to destroy the field. I was in the infield that day, but I actually have seats in the stands in the dump that is Pimlico this time. I know they have cleaned up the infield act at Pimlico in the years since 2000 (I think the infield is essentially a Lorde concert this year), but I was scared for my life in that infield. I've done the Derby infield on a number of occasions, and there was absolutely no comparison. At the time, you were allowed to bring cans of beer into the infield, and people used them as missiles. I would never do that again!

They got rid of the BYOB policy in, I believe, 2009. It really cleaned up the infield and made it much less of a crazy drunk fest.

I think there's now a mug you can purchase for $25 or something like that and you can go up to any vendor and get it filled.

[GoMuskies]

I think there's now a mug you can purchase for $25 or something like that and you can go up to any vendor and get it filled.

If they have that policy in the stands, they will be losing money on our group!

[BMoreX]

If they have that policy in the stands, they will be losing money on our group!

I think the mug club is strictly infield.

[paulxu]

I'm going to assume Bally will bet the house on Bayern and drive down the odds.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Bummer.

Bayern Out of San Felipe With Bruised Quarter (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83691/bayern-out-of-san-felipe-with-bruised-quarter#ixzz2vHgcAK9B)


​More later.

[paulxu]

It's all Bally's fault.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Two 50 point races on Saturday.

The G2 Tampa Day Derby runs at 525EST (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83678/conquest-titan-vinceremos-loom-in-tampa-bay) with a cast of solid entrants but no single headliner in the mix. The big boys winter and run at Gulfstream. Tampa Bay Downs collects the next league of boarders in Florida and attracts good horses shipping in (from Gulfstream, in fact) that have set a different course for Churchill Downs.

The morning line for the race is scrambled (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/TAM030814USA-EQB.html#RACE11) and will bounce around enough before post time to put some value into play. Keep your eyes on two horses:

· Conquest Titan (7/2 ML) (http://www.drf.com/news/tampa-bay-derby-judge-conquest-titan-company-hes-kept) finished second in the G3 Holy Bull to #1 rated Cairo Prince a month ago and passed seven horses in doing so. His closing style and breeding make him a threat this weekend – and beyond if he makes it to CD. This is Conquest Titan’s second race of the year and it’s time to giddy up.


· Cousin Stephen (9/2 ML) is a richly bred horse with outstanding connections – jock Javier Castellano and trainer Chad Brown. Indeed, it is rare to see a jockey or trainer carry a horse across the finish line. Cousin Stephen needs to win this week. He has lost two races this year, passed in the stretch in both. Cousin Stephen is training well. You’re more likely to get value from him than from Conquest Titan. 5/1 would be a treat here.

Vinceramos will be post time favorite. Surfing USA – the horse not the song – has a great name, is well-regarded, and ran well in his 3-year old debut. He’s the ML favorite. I like the horse and love the song but can’t see him tomorrow. Oh, and Javier Castellano jumped off Surfing USA for Cousin Stephen and Chad Brown this race. Surfing USA is trained by Pletcher.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s4slliAtQU

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

I’m bummed that Bayern scratched (foot bruise) in tomorrow’s G2 San Vincente Derby in California. He had two career wins since January and won his last in allowance company by 15 lengths. Fifteen. This was to be his audition for the bigs. It will have to wait until sooner (Sunland Derby in March) or later (Santa Anita Derby in April). I hope he makes it back.

It’s a three horse race between California Chrome (9/5 ML), Kristo (5/2), and Midnight Hawk (5/2). (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA030814USA-EQB.html#RACE5)

Simply put, it’s California Chrome.

I’d like for Midnight Hawk to do well. He’s owned by Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville and NFL coach Mike Tice. Plenty of hometown interest in Chicago. He tried 1 1/16 mile at SA in his last race, couldn’t close and finished third against good horses. He looks like a miler.

Kristo is a burner and will set the pace with long shot Unstoppable Colby.

It’s always possible that either Midnight Hawk or Kristo will get loose on a fast track. But California Chrome is grooved for this race and is a fast horse himself. California Chrome will move before the quarter pole and win the San Vincente.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Top Billing Off Derby Trail With Fracture
(http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83721/top-billing-off-derby-trail-with-fracture)
This is how Derby fields are set.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Derby Watch (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs) for 3/12/13.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The Big East Tournament, of all things, has cut into my handicapping time this week so I shall be brief.

The G2 Rebel runs today at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. I’d love to visit the place in a the spring some year. The racing is very good and from what I understand, a good time is reasonably expected when one visits Hot Springs.

Free (and legal!) Past Performances here. (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbFreePP.cfm?t=OP&d=03-15-2014&n=10&de=D&c=USA)

The Rebel is a rematch of the top three finishers in last month’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Tapiture, Strong Mandate, and Ride on Curlin finished one, two, three.

Tapiture will be favored and there’s no reason to oppose him.

Strong Mandate finished four back but is fast enough and figures today given his exceptionally strong training on the Oaklawn surface.

Forget Ride on Curlin who finished 10 lengths behind winner Tapiture. Not fast enough.

As a longer shot, don’t look past Street Strategy who hasn’t run at this level, but has the breeding, speed, and experience over the Oaklawn surface to compete.

Kobe’s Back is this week’s “Now Horse.” A California shipper, he’s been impressive on polytrack and shorter distances. He’s being asked to go long on dirt for the first time today so count me out.

Hopportunity is the Wise Guy Horse in the race. Another Californian trained by Baffert, he finished fourth in New Orleans in the Risen Star a few weeks back and needs to move up today.

Your winner is Strong Mandate.

Your value is Street Strategy.

I'm pretty sure the race will be on TVG (602 DirecTV) at 6PM Central.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This Week's Derby Watch (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs) here for your consideration.

Saturday, all eyes fix upon Florence, Kentucky for the Spiral Stakes at Turfway. (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/TP032214USA-EQB.html#RACE11)

Complete coverage here at Bloodhorse (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/83910/solitary-ranger-tamarando-clash-in-spiral).

A glance at the morning line odds shows Solitary Ranger installed at 6/1.

He went off at 12/1 in wiring the field at last month's Battaglia on the same track.


Give me Solitary Ranger from PP2, his front running style, his graded stakes experience, two consecutive bullet works, and Wayne Catalano training. He’s 5/1 ML and certainly no lock, no real value if he gets bet down, and no Derby hopeful. A pure action bet.

You Are Welcome.

Attention Dart87: We Miss Artie, 4/1, is in for the Spiral. Shift to poly may help and John Velazquez is up.

Good Racing Luck!

[BBC 08]

6 weeks away!

[DART87]

Attention Dart87: We Miss Artie, 4/1, is in for the Spiral. Shift to poly may help and John Velazquez is up.

Good Racing Luck!

Mel,

I definitely missed Artie in the winners circle of the FOY. I think he has a chance for a piece here on the All Weather Surface.

I am going with Tamarando for the win.

What does your form say about Poker Player and Harry’s Holiday for some value?

Good Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

DART87: Dude . . . . . .

[DART87]

DART87: Dude . . . . . .

Yes, well too bad I did't have Artie on top. Thank goodness Harry's Holiday was ITM, made the race profitable for me. I hope you cashed a ticket or 2!

Do you like anything in the Sundland Derby today? I see Midnight Hawk and Chitu, anything else to look at? Maybe some value in Rebranded?

Good Luck.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Don't know about Rebranded.

Look at Global Strike.

Chitu.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Free (and Legal!) past performances for Saturday's Florida Derby (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14FLDerby.pdf) and Saturday's Louisiana Derby (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14LADerby.pdf) from those kind folks at Brisnet (http://www.brisnet.com)!

It's the most wonderful time of the year!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

A friend of mine has lost money in the past by letting his Derby prep bets be influenced by his ideas about what will or won’t happen on the First Saturday in May. Bad idea. Bet the race in front of you. End of homily.

Two huge, stacked races today that earn a horse 100 points for the win, 50 for place, and 20 for show. There’s even 10 points for fourth. Last year the cut was at 20-odd points to get into the Derby. Hitting the board in one of the next seven Grade 1 stakes sends you to Louisville.*

Call to post for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP032914USA-EQB.html#RACE14) is 6:48 EDT. Main story lines are:



The Return of Cairo Prince. (http://www.drf.com/news/florida-derby-cairo-prince-targets-kentucky-derby-points) The presumptive Derby favorite, he won the Holy Bull nine weeks ago and hasn’t run since. Meaning . . . he has only 10 qualifying points and for all his potential needs a big run today. No reason to think he doesn’t have it in him.




Wildcat Red and General a Rod Resume Their Rivalry. They have squared off twice since January and each won one of those. General a Rod by a head in January, Wildcat Red by a head in February.




Go Time for Constitution . . . and Spot. I plumped late-bloomer Constitution last month before his three-length allowance win. He’ll be on the pace. Spot is an even later-comer. He has never gone two turns on the dirt but looks to be in shape to hit the board after a two length win in the 7 furlong Swale at Gulfstream early in March. He’s a Nick Zito horse with Arlington Park (“Mel’s” hometrack) roots and I like trainer Nick Zito. Go Spot.




Gulfstream’s frontrunner-favoring surface. It’s been notable all spring. It will be a fast pace. No one is going to let another get an unchallenged lead. Expect Wildcat Red to blow out from the post, followed by General a Rod (of course) and Constitution. Just how Cairo Prince deals with all this will be the story of the race.


I like General a Rod though he’ll offer no value. After that you’re on your own. Watch the odds settle. I don’t see the long shots figuring.

Louisiana Derby coming later.

Good Racing Luck!


* If you’re coming up short and desperately stricken and driven by Derby Fever you can try the Lexington Stakes a couple of weeks before the Derby. It’s worth 10 points for a win and might push you in if you have enjoyed borderline success earlier on the trail. Think “Play-in Game in Dayton” . . .

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The Louisiana Derby runs at Fairgrounds in NOLA today at 710E / 610C. (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/FG032914USA-EQB.html#RACE11)

Intense Holiday, winner of 50 points in the Risen Star in February, breaks from the post and is the 2/1 ML favorite.

But the race will be made by the three early-speed horses in PPs 8, 9 and 10. Rise Up (PP8, 10/1) is the inside of the three. He won’t be able to see what the other two are doing and will need to go for the lead. In Trouble (PP9, 4/1) and Albano(PP10, 9/2, and nosed by Intense Holiday in the Risen Star) will push and press Rise Up.

The challenge for Intense Holiday (PP1) will be with all that outside speed, the field can collapse on the rail into the first turn. He’ll need to placed forward early to avoid being shuffled back with many horses to pass.

This in where Vicar’s in Trouble (PP6, 4/1) comes in. If you throw out his unmemorable Risen Star, he’s done nothing wrong and has won two times over the Fairgrounds surface. He could have the smoothest trip to a stalking position behind the 8/9/10 and be positioned to move late as a couple of them fall off at the 1/8 pole.

Vicar’s in Trouble (the 6) and In Trouble (the 9) – NOTE: different horses – will battle.

If your looking for the bomb – consider Louies Flower (PP3, 20/1). Draw a line through his non-competitive (OK, last place) Southwest Stakes and he was showing ability to win while improving late last year. Late last year. He’s a Flower Alley, the sire who brought you (. . . PaulXU . . .) I’ll Have Another. Bet him to show.

Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

They'll never be another I'll Have Another. Great horse. Great call. (injures self reaching for back pat)

I like the lineage...but who names a male horse Flower Alley? What's that.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

More on Flower Alley here (http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/stallions/119261/flower-alley).

By Distorted Humor, same as Funny Cide.

Won the Travers and Jim Dandy; second in the BC Classic and Arkansas Derby at three years old.

Richly bred. Great horse.

I always liked the name!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Wow. General a Rod is 6/1 in the post parade. Value.

[xu82]

OK, not directly Derby related, but my wife (who grew up with a horse - she trained hunter jumpers and I have a vague idea of what that means) is meeting a client or prospect there the week before the race and has been promised a tour of the stables. A 7 year old could not be more excited on Christmas Eve!

[Strange Brew]

This.

(and the kangaroo court on Monday morning)

Apparently it was necessary as a group of bawdy Muskies from N. Ohio were involved in a bus tipping incident.....Or so goes the legend..

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Some great commentary from Mike Watchmaker at DRF (http://www.drf.com/blogs/saturday-notes-1) on Saturday's Florida and Louisiana Derbies.

I had some success in picking the horses who would be in the mix in both races but my pace scenarios were totally wrong.

Gotta love the races.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

OK, not directly Derby related, but my wife (who grew up with a horse - she trained hunter jumpers and I have a vague idea of what that means) is meeting a client or prospect there the week before the race and has been promised a tour of the stables. A 7 year old could not be more excited on Christmas Eve!

This is very cool.

The Derby horses will be there and in training.

I reco a 5AM meeting at the track way up in the Grandstand.

Cheers!

And remember the binoculars!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Steve Haskin's weekly Derby Dozen (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/03/31/derby-dozen-march-31-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx) at Bloodhorse is always a great read.

Wood Memorial in NYC and Santa Anita Derby in LA this weekend.

Most Wonderful Time . . .

[xu82]

This is very cool.

The Derby horses will be there and in training.


She is very aware of this. Her co-worker bringing her into this situation said he just went in a suit last year for the stable visit. That was sacrilege to her! She's worried about finding the right boots, and I think she may also try to sneak in or borrow a shovel! (I cannot explain in words how much I wish I was kidding.)

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This week's Derby Watch from Daily Racing Form. (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs)

Big Day Saturday: Wood Memorial in NYC; Santa Anita Derby in SoCal.

More to come.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Free (and Legal!) Past Performances from our friends at Brisnet.

Wood Memorial at 540ET / 440CT Saturday. (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14TwinSpiresWood.pdf)

Santa Anita Derby at 630ET / 530CT Saturday. (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14SADerby.pdf)

Looks like no Saturday Mass for Mel.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Mels' Derby Trail Droppings for Saturday, April 5th

Quickly . . .

One of my favorite days on the Thoroughbred Calendar: Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby.

Two horses, one running in each race, have the chance to establish themselves as monstrously Big Horses with wins today. And they face the task from interesting and opposite directions.

G1 Wood Memorial (1 1/8 M)


All eyes on Social Inclusion (2/1 ML favorite) has won two times at Gulfstream by a combined 17 1/2 lenghts. No graded stakes experience, no serious competition to speak of. Half the world is agog, the other half will try to beat him. The brilliant and legenedary Andrew Beyer is among the latter. (http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-social-inclusion-being-thrown-deep-end-wood-memorial)




Samraat (7/2 ML and undefeated in five tries (four of those on today's Aqueduct track)) and Uncle Sigh (5/1) renew their rivalry in Social Inclusion's shadow. Samraat has won the two races between them by a total of a length and a neck. I can't pick against Samraat until he losses; very gutty horse who wins.




Noble Moon (12/1) is a fast horse who has won at the Big A. Won twice and placed in a third with 60-90 day layoffs between all three races. He's runs off 90 days today. Why not?




I'm leaving the light on for Wicked Strong (15/1) who has underwhelmed all spring. To do so I need to believe he didn't love Gulfstream as much as Gulfstream loved Social Inclusion. See above.





Xavier fans should look upon 50/1 longshot Effinex (say it fast) with doting favor.



G1 Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8 M)


California Chrome (6/5 ML) (http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-california-chrome-tops-big-name-field) has destroyed his competition in California this spring winning three races by a combined 19 since late December. But unlike the lightly raced Social Inclusion, Chrome is starting for the tenth time today. Last-time out opponent Kristo is so impressed by Chrome that he is running today . . . in the Wood Memorial . . . in New York. He's got a 77 year-old first time Derby hopeful trainer in Art Sherman, a load of talent, a crowded bandwagon and my best wishes.




Candy Boy (9/5 ML) is another favorite of mine who needs to run very well today. He's on a nine-week layoff after his win in the G2 Lewis and on the point bubble with 20. Ask Cairo Prince how that feels. His fourth place finish in last week's Florida Derby left him with 24 points and a seat on the bubble. He was a lot of people's Derby favorite and he may miss the race on points. Candy Boy must avoid similar fate. If the point system is doing one thing, it's encouraging connections to win races and keep racing. I like that. And as a longtime Springsteen fan, I love the name.




Hoppertunity (Baffert's 3/1 ML entrant) will avoid the spotlight cast on these two, run like hell and maybe win the race. Like he did in the Rebel.




Other long shots don't figure except Schoolofhardrocks who does for some. I haven't seem enough of him, enough from him, nor do I know enough about handicapping to see what they see. That's why they run the race.


Bayern runs in the Arkansas Derby next week. Ooh, baby.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Here are (Free and Legal!) Past Performances for all the top Derby contenders. (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby14PointsPPs.pdf) And a few pretenders, for good measure. Updated through 4/5 (Wood and SA Derby.)

From our friends at Brisnet (http://www.brisnet.com/).

Good show, Brisnet.

And have a look at The Downey Profile (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/index.html), an excellent source for Derby news and original reporting.

[xu82]

Mel, I'm so glad you have this forum to share your knowledge and opportunity to express yourself.... and point out how little I know about horse racing. My wife has always pushed horses on the family, but life was too hectic. Enjoy your passion! I love race day though.

[BBC 08]

Got my Derby and Oaks tickets in the mail yesterday. Cannot wait for that weekend.

[pickledpigsfeet]

BBC, what did you pay and where are you sitting?

[BBC 08]

BBC, what did you pay and where are you sitting?

Section 126 Row C. Got tickets for both Oaks and Derby and a $25 gift card as a package for like $350 after taxes and fees I think. My dad bought the tickets for our group while I was in Spain in November so I'm not sure on exact price.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Section 126 Row C. Got tickets for both Oaks and Derby and a $25 gift card as a package for like $350 after taxes and fees I think. My dad bought the tickets for our group while I was in Spain in November so I'm not sure on exact price.

Way to go, Dad.

[xu82]

Way to go, Dad.

My kids never say that... and I don't think I'm the problem.

[BBC 08]

Way to go, Dad.

Yeah I'm very thankful for him.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This week's Derby Watch from DRF (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs).

And free (and legal!) past performances for Saturday's Arkansas Derby (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14ArkDerby.pdf) and the Bluegrass Stakes (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14BGStakes.pdf) at Keeneland.

Who's going down to Lexington on Saturday?

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The G1 Bluegrass at Keeneland (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/KEE041214USA-EQB.html#RACE11) on Saturday is shaping up to be a great betting race.

Meaning: It features a mixed bag of horses who aren’t (as a group) Derby stock and nobody knows how its going to turn out.

Aside from being a “Great Betting Race,” the Bluegrass is today a literal and figurative non sequitur. It comes at the end of the Derby Trail and is run on synthetic surface. So it attracts a) dirt horses in need of late qualifying points and b) turf and synthetic runners who have actively avoided the earlier dirt trials. Why it’s a prime 100-points-to-the-winner race when it typically sends less than stellar dirt and decent non-dirt horses to the #1 dirt race in the universe . . . well . . . it IS run at Keeneland. The next time it rolls around, Keeneland will have a new dirt track to run the race on. Order restored.

Dick Downey has a good overview of the capacity 14-horse field. (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/more_racing_news/2014/04/10/dicks-picks-blue-grass-is-a-real-bear.798391)

Have a ball betting on whoever you like. In their own ways, they’re all very nice horses.

Give me Harry’s Holiday (who will try to steal the race wire to wire) or Vinceremos (who will try to close into Harry’s Holiday’s pace). Both are horses with Derby qualifying points that need a few more due to unlikely earlier race finishes. Vinceremos is #19 in the point standing. Harry’s Holiday is #20. The KYD is a 20 horse field.

Good Racing Luck!

[GoMuskies]

Give me Harry’s Holiday

MOR should be all over this one.

[GoMuskies]

Some horrific news for those of us who like to make a wager or two on horse racing at Churchill Downs.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84325/churchill-downs-to-increase-takeout-rates

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

AP Indy is one of the great thoroughbreds of all-time (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.P._Indy). He won a bunch of major races in the early 90s: Hollywood Futurity, Santa Anita Derby, Belmont Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He’s the leading dirt / distance sire of his generation. (http://www.drf.com/news/hot-sire-ap-indy) Indeed, of recent history.

But none of AP Indy’s progeny ever won a Kentucky Derby.

Commissioner (8/1 ML) runs in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow. Commissioner is AP Indy’s last chance for a Derby winner. AP Indy, is retired, or “pensioned” from breeding. Commissioner has 10 points toward the Derby and is in 33rd place in the points standings. I hope he runs a big race tomorrow, continues on the Derby Trail, and gives AP Indy a chance to be sire to a Kentucky Derby winner. He’ll have his work cut out for him.

Unlike other 100-point-to-the-winner races running tomorrow, the Arkansas Derby is a very productive Derby prep. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84286/triple-crown-infographic-arkansas-derby) Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin all won the Arkansas Derby in the mid-2000s and missed winning three different Triple Crowns by four races -- in total.

Tomorrow’s G1 Arkansas Derby (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/OP041214USA-EQB.html#RACE11) features Tapiture (9/5 ML favorite) and Ride on Curlin (12/1 ML) two tough running, experienced speedsters who have been successful on the Oaklawn surface this spring. Strong Mandate (9/2 ML) is one of the Trail’s mystery horses that still has potential for a big race.

Bayern (2/1 ML) (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-bayern-taking-next-step-toward-defying-history-arkansas-derby) is another lightly raced, late starter that has crushed maiden and allowance competition but never raced for Derby points. Like Florida Derby winner Constitution, and Wood Memorial phenom Social Inclusion, Bayern hopes to win the Derby having never raced as a two year old.

Todd Pletcher-trained Commissioner will have Mike Smith as jockey tomorrow. Expect Smith to “rate” Commissioner, letting Bayern and Ride on Curlin reach the front of the pack. Tapiture will take first run at the leaders, and Commissioner will duel duel with him in the stretch. Conquest Titan will be the late closer.

Box Tapiture and Commissioner in your Exacta.

There I go, betting with my heart. (http://movieclips.com/9Zvx-lost-in-america-movie-the-boldest-experiment-in-advertising-history/)

Good Racing Luck!

[Emp]

Now what? Mel, your handicapping of Pick the Score is exceeding your Bluegrass prognostications. But it's colorful and easier to read than a racing form.

Keep feeding us punters.

Warmly, Emp

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The Bluegrass was a bad race for good handicappers.

(I heard that from some bum at Arlington once and nearly spit my beverage.)

More to come!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Art Sherman is the 77 year old trainer of presumptive Derby favorite California Chrome.

Sherman has been a very successful rider and trainer in California for six decades, but never had a horse in the Derby.

Mr. Sherman will be a major line as the Derby approaches and particularly once the networks join the trail.

Here's an hour-long podcast from last week of Sherman talking about his career in the game. (http://horseracingradio.net/trainer-talk/trainer-talk-with-art-sherman-april-9-2014/)

It is a sure smile.

We'll all bet for whichever horses we want on Derby Day.

Listen to the podcast -- and you'll be cheering for California Chrome -- and for Art Sherman.

[BBC 08]

Have all of Chrome's wins come on synthetic? If so then I might stay away from betting heavy on him.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Not to worry, Beeb.

California Chrome's last three wins (since January 25th) have all been on dirt at Santa Anita: three wins by a total of 18 lengths. He has three other wins to his name, all on poly: two at Hollywood, one at Del Mar.

He started as a poly horse with decidedly mixed success. Those three poly wins came with a couple out of the money finishes.

He won his last poly start on 12/22, then Sherman switched him over to dirt -- and away he went.

<Here's where I'd insert an image of his past performances, but I can't make the file small enough or whatever.>

In any case, he's running as an absolute beast.

The other interesting story line you're going to hear is that Chrome was stabled and trained at Hollywood Park until they closed that track down at the end of 2013.

Since then he has been training on the dirt at Los Alamitos racetrack in SoCal. Los Al is quarter horse track. In horse racing circles this is a curious and big deal. Kinda like if the Bengals had to practice on a field on the riverfront under the Brent Spence bridge. Oh, wait . . .

I don't know anything about the quarters, but the track is getting rave reviews from thoroughbred trainers. It's supposed to be simply a great dirt surface. To hear Sherman tell it, California Chrome loves Los Al and will continue training there.

Just another Derby Trail tale.

[BBC 08]

Him winning on dirt is all I needed to hear. Thanks Mel!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Injury Knocks Constitution Off Derby Trail. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84413/injury-knocks-constitution-off-derby-trail)

Florida Derby-winning phenom.

Besilu Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Constitution will miss the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) and the other two Triple Crown races after a hairline fracture in his front right cannon bone was discovered.

Dang me.

[BBC 08]

These 17 days can't go by fast enough.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Cairo Prince Out of KY Derby With Injury (http://www.bloodhorse.com/email/link/EBF5074A941769C46AE62FAF48F58972)

Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) winner Cairo Prince has sustained an injury to his left front ankle and will miss the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said April 19.

So now there are only two horses left on the Trail from the 2014 Kentucky Derby November Futures Pool (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/pdfs/Future%20Wager%20Pool%201%20Win%20Payoffs..pdf): Ride on Curlin (57/1) and Pablo Del Monte (59/1).

Pablo Del Monte disappeared from the Futures Book after November. Now he's into the race on points after his 3rd place finish in the Bluegrass at Keeneland.

Nearly half the money in Pool 1 went to "Field / All Others." Those crafty plungers are now sitting on a 4/5 (Nearly) Sure Thing.

Very crafty, indeed.

[bourbonman]

Mel, you seeing the speed setting up in the Derby? I'm thinking so and looking for that closer. Unfortunately the one I like (Wicked Strong) will probably be 2nd money behind Chrome. Dance with Fate and Medal Count will close, but they just ran the Bluegrass and that was Poly. I'll be at The Works on Monday to start a great week at the track. Best of luck to you.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Well, this is handy. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/pdf/20140421DerbyOaksUpdate.pdf)

It's the daily media notes issued by Churchill Downs PR for both the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks (3-year old fillies the day before Derby Day).

Training notes, point standings, the Barn List (for Mrs. xu82 who will be onsite next week), heck, it's even got flight schedules for horses arriving in Louisville. If you'd like to go out to the airport and greet your favorite, of course.

Updated daily, here, I think. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84499/kentucky-derby-and-oaks-daily-updates)

Handy!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Lots of buzz for Dance With Fate (and his cool pink silks) (http://www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com/kentucky-derby-2014/2014/4/23/5642180/kentucky-derby-2014-contenders-dance-with-fate), winner of the Bluegrass at Keeneland.

He wasn't impossible in that race.

Remember, Animal Kingdom won the Spiral on poly then won the Derby three years back.

Interestingly, Dance With Fate placed in the Del Mar Futurity last September. California Chrome finished sixth in that race -- and tried dirt for the first time next time out.

Here's his Bluegrass with a great 5-wide finish (he's the 8):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvHIMsqSuR8

[BBC 08]

10 mutha fuckin days!

[xu82]

These 17 days can't go by fast enough.

The race will go by fast enough - in the blink of an eye! My sister went once. She's pretty sure she saw the tail of a horse at one point. Still a great memory. I'm disappointed I never made time for it.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Doug Salvatore does a great job of blogging Derby contenders' form, pedigree, speed, and red flags at twinspires.com (http://www.twinspires.com/).

Here's Part 1 of his analysis. (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/4/16/form-pedigree-speed-red-flag-analysis-derby-contenders-part-1-3)

And here's Part 2. (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/4/17/form-pedigree-speed-red-flag-analysis-derby-contenders-part-2-3)

Part 3 still to come.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Interesting development at CD.

Bob Baffert will run two of his Derby hopefuls in Saturday's G3 Derby Trial at CD (http://www.drf.com/race-entries/CD/USA/2014-04-26/D).

Bayern and Chitu are both installed as 2/1 ML favorites in the 1 mile race that awards no Derby points.

Baffert has been pursuing a Derby Trail strategy of running horses in whatever race is on tap if the horse is ready to run.

Bayern was 3rd in the Arkansas Derby two weeks back. He's awaiting a pass from a couple of horses in the Derby mix before he'll have enough to points qualify for the race. Baffert has said he will run in the Derby if he moves up enough.

Chitu hasn't run since winning the Sunland Derby on 23 March. He's officially "undecided" for the Derby.

This is a close-in paid workout for both entrants. Possible that Baffert will run both back on Derby Day if they perform well.

Interesting and not recently tried.

Other horses of interest to the xhoops community include Bitters 'n' Bourbon . . .

And the ominously named Matador.

[BBC 08]

Mel, any thoughts on who might win Oaks?

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Untapable (http://www.paulickreport.com/tag/untapable/) will be odds-on favorite by universal acclamation.

One look at these (Free and Legal!) Past Performances (from our friends at Brisnet) (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Oaks14PointsPPs.pdf) will show you why.

Untapable would be the second fastest horse in the Derby.

I know a guy who always bets the Oaks / Derby Double by singling the favorite in the Oaks and wheeling (betting every horse entered in) the Derby.

Good year to try that!

Good Racing Luck!

[BBC 08]

Good idea Mel! I'll be doing that this year. Any other Xavier grads going to Oaks and/or Derby this year?

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

This Week's edition of DRF's Derby Watch.

New video from Watchmaker and Privman.

Click on a horse's name, get charts from preps, video, and more.

Free and Legal!

[GoMuskies]

Untapable (http://www.paulickreport.com/tag/untapable/)

Any relationship to Unbridled or Pleasant Tap (and by association Pleasant Colony)? Pleasant Colony was one of my all-time faves.

[bourbonman]

Any relationship to Unbridled or Pleasant Tap (and by association Pleasant Colony)? Pleasant Colony was one of my all-time faves.
Unbridled is great grand parent. The "tap" comes from Tapit which came from Tap Your Heels.

[bourbonman]

Good idea Mel! I'll be doing that this year. Any other Xavier grads going to Oaks and/or Derby this year?

Oaks, but only b/c my new boss insists I go. I'm not a fan of the crowd. Prefer playing at home.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

DingDing!

Tapit filly from a Prized mare.

Tapit's two grand sires were the legendary AP Indy and . . . Unbridled. (http://www.pedigreequery.com/untapable)

Prized won $2M and the Breeders' Cup Turf in 1989.

"Richly Bred."

Public reps and hat tip to BourbonMan.

[BBC 08]

Oaks, but only b/c my new boss insists I go. I'm not a fan of the crowd. Prefer playing at home.

I wanna work for you and your new boss now.

[paulxu]

Slick Rick has bought a share of Empress of Midway.
So I like her speed rating...well, for the first 15 seconds anyway.

[waggy]

Empress (can't make it to) Midway.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Up-to-date (Free and Legal!) Past Performances (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby14PointsPPs.pdf) for the field from our friends at Brisnet. (http://www.brisnet.com)

Santa Anita handicapper and Derby savant Jon White (http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime) has decreed these unofficial but good-enough-as-a-starting-point odds for the field:

California Chrome (5-2)
Hoppertunity (8-1)
Wicked Strong (8-1)
Danza (12-1)
Vicar’s in Trouble (12-1)
Dance With Fate (15-1)
General a Rod (15-1)
Samraat (15-1)
Tapiture (15-1)
Wildcat Red (15-1)
Candy Boy (20-1)
Intense Holiday (20-1)
Medal Count (20-1)
Ride on Curlin (20-1)
Uncle Sigh (20-1)
Chitu (30-1)
Harry’s Holiday (30-1)
Ring Weekend (30-1)
Vinceramos (30-1)
We Miss Artie (30-1)

Official, morning line odds from CD oddsmaker (and voice of Turfway Park) Mike Battaglia after the post position draw on Wednesday.

And now let us sing the praises of Dale Romans, Louisville native and the Everyman of big time trainers. If you've seen The First Saturday in May (http://www.amazon.com/First-Saturday-May-Brad-Hennegan/dp/B002OVB9RG/ref=sr_1_1?s=movies-tv&ie=UTF8&qid=1398653082&sr=1-1&keywords=first+saturday+in+may) you got to know Romans and his colorful clan who refer to him as "Cousin Dale." Romans will saddle Medal Count on Saturday and many like his horse's chances.

Here's a short interview with Romans singing the praises of Medal Count (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/13197/ky-derby-dale-romans-on-medal-count). You gotta love him. I really wish him the best. And I really hope he gets a new pair of glasses before he walks to the winner's circle.

[bourbonman]

Mel, obviously CA Chrome will be favorite, but even if ML starts this low, I would be surprised if he goes off lower than 4 - 1. I'm a believer that he's the favorite, but am curious if he will ship well. Need to see a solid work on the track and with him showing up only today and big rain for the next couple here, not sure what we'll get to see. Now if you were to tell me that by post time Wicked Strong is at 8, Danza at 12, Samraat at 15, Candy Boy at 20 and Intense Holiday at 20, then I'm going to love my super. Just have to figure out which one or two to put on top with that favorite in order to try to beat him. Right now it's Danza & Samraat, but more to review and need to see post positions.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Outstanding horse-by-horse notes from over the weekend (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/more_racing_news/2014/04/26/daily-derby-update-saturday-april-26.819661) from our friends at the Downey Report.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Ring Weekend: Out. Commanding Curve: In. (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-commanding-curve-replaces-ailing-ring-weekend)

[bourbonman]

Ring Weekend: Out. Commanding Curve: In. (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-commanding-curve-replaces-ailing-ring-weekend)
Good move IMO only because Ring had no chance and wouldn't have drawn much money in the pools for his losing effort. At least Curve will draw some money in the pools for his losing effort, hence driving up my value.

Now all I need is Pablo Del Monte to draw in next (but not at the expense of one of my ponies) to add to the speed of the race. More speed only hurts Chrome IMO.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Bumping Kentucky Oaks PPs!


Untapable (http://www.paulickreport.com/tag/untapable/) will be odds-on favorite by universal acclamation.

One look at these (Free and Legal!) Past Performances (from our friends at Brisnet) (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Oaks14PointsPPs.pdf) will show you why.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The New York Times offers a very nice piece on Art Sherman, (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/sports/art-sherman-ties-the-kentucky-derby-favorite-california-chrome-to-a-past-winner.html?_r=0) California Chrome's 77-year old, first time Derby horse trainer.

Spend a few minutes reading about the horses Doug Salvatore suggests you NOT bet on this Saturday in Part 3 of his Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders. (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2014/4/28/form-pedigree-speed-red-flag-analysis-derby-contenders-part-3-3) Catch up on first two parts via links at the article.

Not surprisingly, kentuckyderby.com has a great looking and informative horse-by-horse and race-by-race microsite not surprisingly titled "The Road to the Kentucky Derby. (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/road)"

[paulxu]

Hoppertunity by a length.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Kentucky Derby 140 Post Positions with track odds and commentary from DRF pundits. (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-field-churchill-downs)

Felt great to type that!

[BBC 08]

We are less than 72 hours to Derby. Time to listen to this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YRdxHHFKvQ

and this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DI_dBarT6UY (I can only include one video in a post at a time apparently but this is My Old Kentucky Home)

and read this:

The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved by Hunt S. Thompson (http://brianb.freeshell.org/a/kddd.pdf)

Drinking bourbon while doing all of the above highly encouraged.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Post positions, jocks, trainers, and odds all in one place.



Kentucky Derby (gr. I) $2,000,000 Guaranteed (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/CD/2014/5/3/11/kentucky-derby)


Post
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Odds


1.
Vicar's in Trouble (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/vicars-in-trouble/2011?source=BHonline)
Rosie Napravnik
Mike Maker
30-1


2.
Harry's Holiday (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/harrys-holiday/2011?source=BHonline)
Corey Lanerie
Mike Maker
50-1


3.
Uncle Sigh (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/uncle-sigh/2011?source=BHonline)
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Gary Contessa
30-1


4.
Danza (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/danza/2011?source=BHonline)
Joe Bravo
Todd Pletcher
10-1


5.
California Chrome (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/california-chrome/2011?source=BHonline)
Victor Espinoza
Art Sherman
5-2


6.
Samraat (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/samraat/2011?source=BHonline)
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette Jr.
15-1


7.
We Miss Artie (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/we-miss-artie/2011?source=BHonline)
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
50-1


8.
General a Rod (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/general-a-rod/2011?source=BHonline)
Joel Rosario
Mike Maker
15-1


9.
Vinceremos (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/vinceremos/2011?source=BHonline)
Joe Rocco Jr.
Todd Pletcher
30-1


10.
Wildcat Red (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/wildcat-red/2011?source=BHonline)
Luis Saez
Jose Garoffalo
15-1


11.
Hoppertunity (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/hoppertunity/2011?source=BHonline)
Mike Smith
Bob Baffert
6-1


12.
Dance With Fate (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/dance-with-fate/2011?source=BHonline)
Corey Nakatani
Peter Eurton
20-1


13.
Chitu (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/chitu/2011?source=BHonline)
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
20-1


14.
Medal Count (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/medal-count/2011?source=BHonline)
Robby Albarado
Dale Romans
20-1


15.
Tapiture (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/tapiture/2011?source=BHonline)
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steve Asmussen
15-1


16.
Intense Holiday (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/intense-holiday/2011?source=BHonline)
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
12-1


17.
Commanding Curve (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/commanding-curve/2011?source=BHonline)
Shaun Bridgmohan
Dallas Stewart
50-1


18.
Candy Boy (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/candy-boy/2011?source=BHonline)
Gary Stevens
John Sadler
20-1


19.
Ride On Curlin (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/ride-on-curlin/2011?source=BHonline)
Calvin Borel
William Gowan
15-1


20.
Wicked Strong (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/wicked-strong/2011?source=BHonline)
Rajiv Maragh
James Jerkens
8-1


AE
Pablo Del Monte (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/pablo-del-monte/2011?source=BHonline)
TBD
Wesley Ward
50-1




Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84753/california-chrome-draws-post-5-in-derby#ixzz30TDNUqbJ

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Hoppertunity to Miss Kentucky Derby (http://www.bloodhorse.com/email/link/84B49510FAE620F822773A9536BB89CC)


An injured left-front foot will keep Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) runner-up Hoppertunity from competing in this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

The Curse of Apollo lives on . . .

[PMI]

I'm not a racing expert by any stretch but I am in a unique pool that I'd like to do well in. If anyone who follows this closely would be so kind to PM me, I'd appreciate some advice on this particularly strange format of picking horses.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

From our friends at the Daily Racing Form: (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-revised-morning-line-odds)


Kentucky Derby revised morning-line oddsLOUISVILLE, Ky. – With the defection of Hoppertunity as the 6-1 second choice on the morning line for the 140th Kentucky Derby, the morning line has been revised and reissued by Churchill Downs following the colt’s untimely defection.
Churchill linemaker Mike Battaglia has maintained California Chrome as the 5-2 favorite and now lists Wicked Strong as the 6-1 second choice, down from an original 8-1. Several other starters have been adjusted slightly downward as well.
Revised Kentucky Derby morning line:
1. Vicar’s In Trouble, 20-1
2. Harry’s Holiday, 50-1
3. Uncle Sigh, 30-1
4. Danza, 8-1
5. California Chrome, 5-2
6. Samraat, 15-1
7. We Miss Artie, 50-1
8. General a Rod, 15-1
9. Vinceremos, 50-1
10. Wildcat Red, 15-1
11. Hoppertunity, scratched
12. Dance With Fate, 20-1
13. Chitu, 20-1
14. Medal Count, 20-1
15. Tapiture, 12-1
16. Intense Holiday, 8-1
17. Commanding Curve, 50-1
18. Candy Boy, 15-1
19. Ride On Curlin, 15-1
20. Wicked Strong, 6-1
21. Pablo Del Monte, 50-1

[Masterofreality]

Uh, forget the odds..

Harry's Holiday is obviously the play. Unfortunately, I will not be in the Family Box at Churchill to watch the monumental upset and the resulting merriment ensue.

(Not that I'm biased or anything)

[GoMuskies]

Harry's Holiday is a dog. I know that for certain because of the name. :smile:

Also because I bet on that dog in the Bluegrass. Dog.

[Masterofreality]

Harry's Holiday is a dog. I know that for certain because of the name. :smile:

Also because I bet on that dog in the Bluegrass. Dog.

Ever hear of a sandbag?

[paulxu]

I am screwed...Hoppertunity is scratched. Back to the drawing board.

Today's idiot question: what happens to his slot in the gates? Stands empty, they all move down, add a horse that gets his slot?

(Wicked Strong got a bad spot in the draw)

[BBC 08]

His spot is taken by Pablo Del Monte

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Today's idiot question: what happens to his slot in the gates? Stands empty, they all move down, add a horse that gets his slot?

(Wicked Strong got a bad spot in the draw)

Pablo Del Monte is in.

Everybody moves down one.

So Wicked Strong moves from PP20 to PP19.

Two years ago PP19 was home to . . . . . . (Paul)?

[paulxu]

Boy I'd like another right about now.

But he was special. Should have had a triple crown.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

If you're still following this thread, you'll really enjoy Jon White's Selections and Strikes (http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime) post at xpressbet.

White is handicapper at Santa Anita and has developed a nine factor or "strike" approach to identifying Derby winners.

Simply put: two strikes and you're out.

As White writes:


Since 1973, 85% (35 of the 41) of the Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike.

He explains his strike system and scores this year's horse.

White's Derby selections:

1. Dance With Fate (1 strike)
2. California Chrome (0 strikes)
3. Wicked Strong (1 strike)
4. Medal Count (0 strikes)

A key strike in White's system is what he calls:


THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go. Keep in mind that 48 of the last 51 Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run.

So if you're looking for a Derby winner, find one who has a habit of running up front. Dramatic stretch drives place, show, fill out superfectas, but they rarely win the Derby.

This is a useful and interesting article. Worth saving if you're a Derby fan.

Read the whole thing! (http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime)

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

1
Vicar’s in Trouble (30-1) Jockey Rosie Napravnik will brighten the CD Winner's Circle. On Friday. In the Oaks. With Untapable.


2
Harry’s Holiday (50-1) Toss. Accepting my nod as a Bluegrass Stakes contender he finished 13th, 28 1/4 lengths back. I also liked Vinceremos. He finished 14th, 28 1/2 lengths back. Have you ever nailed an "In-Exacta" in a 14 horse race -- plumping the two horses that would finish 13th and 14th? I have.


3
Uncle Sigh (30-1) Speed horse will put on blinkers Saturday to . . . . make him more of a speed horse on Saturday. Knock yourself out.


4
Danza (10-1) Not exactly a Wise Guy Horse after his 41-1 dream trip Ark Derby win. A ton of buzz from people who know what they're talking about. Respectfully, he's all yours.


5
California Chrome (3-1) The hearts of the horse racing world will be with him. The heads will work at trying to beat him -- and they are putitng in overtime. Put me down for both. Surrounded by early race speed. Will he be the join the pace or rate behind it?


6
Samraat (15-1) Was undefeated in 5 before finishing second to Wicked Strong in the Wood. Has run consistently fast -- but not faster -- during that time. If California Chrome joins a pace dogfight and the pace collapses, Samraat will be forwardly-placed to clean up.


7
We Miss Artie (50-1) Will not hit the board.


8
General a Rod (15-1) I don't think so. He didn't prove out as the best horse in Florida. And his owner sold him on Tuesday.


9
Vinceremos (30-1) Toss. Accepting my nod as a Bluegrass Stakes contender he finished 14th, 28 1/2 lengths back. I also liked Harry's Holiday. He finished 13th, 28 1/4 lengths back. Have you ever nailed an "In-Exacta" in a 14 horse race -- plumping the two horses that would finish 14th and 13th? I have.


10
Wildcat Red (15-1) Fast and brilliantly tenacious. If he can leave the suicidal pace duties to Chitu and Uncle Sigh and California Chrome bites at it, he will be forwardly placed and Chrome's top-of-the-stretch nemesis. And he fights. Word is he had a disappointing workout after arriving at CD and he's being disregarded. Practice? . . . Practice?


SCR
Hoppertunity (Scratched) Can't say a bad thing about him. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a two year old. Did I just say a bad thing about him?


11
Dance With Fate (20-1) Late-to-the-party California polytrack luminary; Bluegrass Stakes winner; Wise Guy Horse. Opinions of his dirt form run from "uninspired" to "unknown." Only horse in the KYD to ever finish in front of California Chrome.


12
Chitu (20-1) Owner is intent on pace prodigy running. Trainer Bob Baffert not nearly as keen. Draw your own conclusion and prepare to bet him in the Breeders' Cup Sprint in October.


13
Medal Count (20-1) My man Dale Romans' horse has trifecta and superfecta sharpies salivating. Distance is not the issue for this son of Dynaformer. Dirt form is.


14
Tapiture (15-1) I liked him in March. I like Ride On Curlin now.


15
Intense Holiday (12-1) I didn't like his 1 1/8 mile Louisiana Derby where he ran out of gas, got his feet tangled up and nearly crashed through the rail in the stretch. While clear of traffic. How does that translate at 1 1/4 miles? Maybe Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez know. Still, no, thanks.


16
Commanding Curve (50-1) Late-entered late-runner trained by Dallas Stewart. Late-entered late-runner Golden Soul got 2nd place for Stewart last year. So that means Commanding Curve will do same. Right?


17
Candy Boy (20-1) He was thought to be on the way up, but California Chrome destroyed him in the SA Derby. Will be kept back for one big run. Not impossible. Gary Stevens. My longshot.


18
Ride on Curlin (15-1) A legit longshot who has grown on me and is capable of running a big race on Saturday. Has a nine race foundation and a habit of being very much involved. Calvin Bo-Rail knows his way around CD, so a good trip is not out of the question.


19
Wicked Strong (8-1) I stuck with him after his 9th place Fountain of Youth fiasco and I'm not leaving now. I liked Hard Spun, so I like his colts. Good closer in a field that is weighted toward early speed. He'll have a good look at the set up and pick his spot from PP19.


SCR
Pablo Del Monte (SCRATCHED) Will run for the lead from PP20. Should be quite a spectacle.



Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Word now is that Pablo Del Monte will not run.

[GoMuskies]

I went with Untapable - Samraat/Dance With Fate/Wicked Strong in the Oaks/Derby Double.

Untapable - Rosalind/Thank You Marylou for my Oaks Exacta

[waggy]

I like Candy Boy.



no homo

[paulxu]

Mel, guess I'll have to go with Wicked in the right slot.
Would like to see Rosie win out of the #1 gate.

[xu82]

Mel,
For those of us slightly less informed, what time does the race start and I'd love your estimate of how long it will last. The hype to play ratio may even exceed a Super Bowl! I need the elevator synopsis, as I am not the horse person in the family. The wife has to travel to Athens for the day. I have company coming to town, but we can schedule around this.

[BBC 08]

Race is at approx. 6:24pm and will last about 2 minutes.

As for me, it was a fun Oaks day. Didn't cash much (friends did better) but we did hit the Oaks/Derby Daily Double already thanks to Untapable winning today. Gotta give public reps to Mel on the idea to bet Untapable and wheel it with every horse in the Derby. Now I just have to hope a long shot wins so we can make some serious cash tomorrow.

No clue on who I'm betting on tomorrow. Just gonna mix and match it and hope for the best. Worked well for me before (2005 Exacta winner) so I hope it works again.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Mel,
For those of us slightly less informed, what time does the race start and I'd love your estimate of how long it will last. The hype to play ratio may even exceed a Super Bowl! I need the elevator synopsis, as I am not the horse person in the family. The wife has to travel to Athens for the day. I have company coming to town, but we can schedule around this.

'82:

Beeb is correct: the race runs at 624EDT/524/424/324.

The over/under on the winning time is 2:02.20: really.

As for scheduling your friends around the race, pshaw! Invite 'em over an hour before the race and say stuff like, "The 'DAP' on California Chrome's blinker hood stands for 'Dumb Ass Partners.'" (It does,you know.)

As for the hype-to-play ratio: You. Are. Welcome.

Beeb: the Oaks/Derby wheel is a great bet . . . when it works. Good luck with the long shot. You're in good shape.

As for me, I think there is money in these four horses today:


Candy Boy
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Medal Count

Good Racing Luck, everybody. And thanks for your indulgence.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YRdxHHFKvQ

Absolutely This.

[Masterofreality]

"Well when you're sitting back in your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day"

-Mick

[bourbonman]

I have numerous angles covered from the Oaks/Derby double, Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3, exacts, tri's and supers and a Pick 4. Derby horses I've used extensively are Danza, California Chrome, Dance with Fate, Medal Count, Intense Holiday, Candy Boy and my big pick of Wicked Strong. Others included as needed at bottom of exotics. Good luck to all.

[vee4xu]

I have numerous angles covered from the Oaks/Derby double, Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3, exacts, tri's and supers and a Pick 4. Derby horses I've used extensively are Danza, California Chrome, Dance with Fate, Medal Count, Intense Holiday, Candy Boy and my big pick of Wicked Strong. Others included as needed at bottom of exotics. Good luck to all.

I'll know you 40 years come this September and I still don't understand all this horse talk. Must be that Louisville accent coming through in writing. :wink:

[bobbiemcgee]

I will have to go with the dumb ass partners.

[paulxu]

and my big pick of Wicked Strong.

I haven't decided if it's a good thing that we share the same pick. I'll let you know in about 1/2 hour.

[Masterofreality]

That was one helluva race by California Chrome.

A damn impressive sprint from the top of the stretch.

[paulxu]

I'm trying to figure out if anyone was closing who could give him a run in the next two.
Maybe not.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

. . . we did hit the Oaks/Derby Daily Double already thanks to Untapable winning today. Gotta give public reps to Mel on the idea to bet Untapable and wheel it with every horse in the Derby. Now I just have to hope a long shot wins so we can make some serious cash tomorrow.



$1 Daily Double
OAKS/DERBY 13-5
5.70



Good Racing Luck!

You're My Guy, BBC 08!

[bourbonman]

Had top 5 horses covered but didn't have 17 in 2nd for tri or super.

Future IMO : CA Chrome was the only horse that could hit the Triple a Crown going in. Of course now he's the only one. I think he'll handle the Preakness. But 2 horses who may sit until Belmont may get him there. Wicked Strong may have him there. But the horse that was motoring at the end (besides Commanding Curve) was Ride on Curlin. That horse was shut off at top of stretch and Borel had him circle the enitre field. He got to 7th. He may offer some nice value if he runs then, especially if they sit out Preakness.

[Muskie]

Had top 5 horses covered but didn't have 17 in 2nd for tri or super.

Future IMO : CA Chrome was the only horse that could hit the Triple a Crown going in. Of course now he's the only one. I think he'll handle the Preakness. But 2 horses who may sit until Belmont may get him there. Wicked Strong may have him there. But the horse that was motoring at the end (besides Commanding Curve) was Ride on Curlin. That horse was shut off at top of stretch and Borel had him circle the enitre field. He got to 7th. He may offer some nice value if he runs then, especially if they sit out Preakness.

I have no idea what you just said, but it sounds magical.

[bourbonman]

I have no idea what you just said, but it sounds magical.

It's definitely magical. If I bet it my money will magically disappear. :nono:

[Masterofreality]

My cousin Bill, who is an avid horseplayer and was at the Derby with the family Saturday, and I were talking yesterday.

Bill thinks that this year's Derby Field was "absolutely the worst crop of 3 year olds in Derby History". He said that the Top 4 were Social Inclusion, Constitution, Honor Code and Cairo Prince. He then said that California Chrome was "barely passable" as a Derby Champ and that he may win the Triple Crown by default. I asked him if any of the 4 that he mentioned were going to run in the Preakness and he said that Social Inclusion may, but that he was scratched from a scheduled start in Florida over the weekend with a hoof bruise.

[nuts4xu]

Horse racing is the second most corrupt sport in America, right behind boxing.

[GoMuskies]

I'm going to Pimlico for the Preakness, and I already know that I'm going to get killed. There's no way I'm going to bother betting on California Chrome at 2-5 or whatever ridiculous price he'll go off at, so I'll end up wasting my money on some horse that cannot beat him. I suppose I could just put CC on top and play exotics, but I know that I'll shoot for the big price with someone else on top.

On the plus side, if CC somehow ends up out of the money in two weeks the show payouts could be higher than the win and place.

[bourbonman]

... "absolutely the worst crop of 3 year olds in Derby History". He said that the Top 4 were Social Inclusion, Constitution, Honor Code and Cairo Prince. He then said that California Chrome was "barely passable" as a Derby Champ and that he may win the Triple Crown by default...

California Chrome got a Beyer of 97 for the Derby. NINETY FRIGGIN' SEVEN! You look for a 100+ for a contender prior to the Derby, not for the bloody winner. I'm sorry to see they're planning on running Ride on Curlin in the Preakness. Maybe they know something.

[xu82]

I'm going to Pimlico for the Preakness, and I already know that I'm going to get killed. There's no way I'm going to bother betting on California Chrome at 2-5 or whatever ridiculous price he'll go off at, so I'll end up wasting my money on some horse that cannot beat him.

Well, I suppose it's good you've got a plan...

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Will Speed Threaten 'Chrome' in Preakness? (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84955/will-speed-threaten-chrome-in-preakness)

Steve Haskin reports:


Sitting behind Uncle Sigh (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/uncle-sigh/2011?source=BHonline) and Chitu (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/chitu/2011?source=BHonline) is one thing. Sitting behind Social Inclusion (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/social-inclusion/2011?source=BHonline), Bayern (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/bayern/2011?source=BHonline), and Pablo Del Monte (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/pablo-del-monte/2011?source=BHonline) could be another story, especially at a shorter distance and with those classy speedballs coming into the second leg of the Triple Crown on relatively fresh legs.

To be continued . . .