We will dance

[Always Learning]

After reading the thread “ARE WE MAKING THE TOURNAMENT” and all 64 posts (many same posters) I concluded that that thread ran from the end of a three game losing streak to the current two game winning streak and thus was just saying we will/we will not, maybe, maybe not, depends etc.

The question needs updating.

And let me say this before I start. The “Committee” pays absolutely no attention or gives any weight to the RPI. They are in-season water fountain material and chat room arguments for fans. The Committee only uses the RPI software to quickly bring up a particular game, whether it is home or away, etc etc etc. But the rankings itself are not a factor. That folks is a FACT, and I know it’s a FACT.

But I digress.

There are 68 teams that make up the field for the Dance, with 32 being Conference Champions, i.e. Conference Tournament champions.

Seventeen conferences will send their tournament champion and nobody else.

Of the other 15 conferences, I am going to make an assumption (yeah, I know) that the following conference tournament champions will come from teams that are going to make the tournament regardless; they being the Big Ten, The ACC, the PAC 12, the MoVal, CUSA, the BE, the ACA and the A-10, eight in all.

The other seven could, I think, could mess with people’s oatmeal.

But, regardless, there are 36 slots for at-large teams, i.e. teams that did not qualify as conference tournament champions.

The following conferences will send more than their champion: Big Ten, Big East , SEC, AAC, ACC, MoVAL, MTN WEST, PAC 12, A-10, CUSA, and WCAC.

Me thinks 28 will come from:

The Big Ten (4), the PAC 12 (3), the ACC (3), the MoVal (1), the ACA (4), the Big 12 (3), MtnWest (1), CUSA (3), A-10 (3), and the BE (3).

So, there are 32 Conference tournament champions and I see the “at” large slots going to conferences who didn’t win their tournaments and the bubble is at 8.

For each team already “in” from the Big Ten, the ACC, the PAC 12, the MoVal, the CUSA, the BE, the ACA or the A-10 that doesn’t win their conference tournament, the bubble decreases.

Bubble teams will be eying the MAC tournament. Toledo is going, but if anyone else wins the MAC tourney, the bubble goes to 7. Likewise if anyone other than UK or Florida wins their tournament, the bubble will be at 6. (Remember Georgia?).

So YES, we will make the field, and NO, we will not be a bubble team. I think on Selection Sunday we will have no less than 21 wins, and that will leave only what seed we will have. And I am lighting candles that we do not get an 8 or 9 seed. Give me 10-12 and I’ll be happy.

Here is the field as I see it: (not including the Conference Tournament Champions that will be their conference’s only entry.)

VCU, St Louis, UMass, George Washington, Villanova, Creighton, Xavier, Providence, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, San Diego State, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, UCONN, Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Texas,
K-State, Oklahoma, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Harvard, Toledo, Wichita State, Indiana State, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Florida, Kentucky, Gonzaga, St Mary’s, New Mexico State

Whatcha think?

[bjf123]

I think you've got too much time on your hands!


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[Muskie in dayton]

Impressive analysis. Thanks for taking the time to do that. Plus that was extra refreshing after reading 100+ posts debating if it is OK to debate if it's OK to hate gays. Or something like that.

Anyway, I agree if the season ends today, X is dancing. But there is a lot of season left.

[XU 87]

Good stuff.

[XUFan09]

I think Xavier has a good chance of getting 21 wins (20 regular season + 1 conference tournament game), but I don't think it's a sure thing. Some combo of 20 (19 wins + 1 conference tournament game or 20 wins + 0 conference tournament games) seems about as likely.

Concerning the RPI, just to further elucidate that point. You're correct that the RPI is not directly used (i.e. We are projected to have an RPI of 40). It is used to rate our wins and losses though. However, the Committee doesn't say, "Xavier beat #17 UC and lost to #20 Iowa on neutral courts." They say more generally, "Xavier went 1-1 against RPI top 25 teams on neutral courts." So it is used, but only to bracket the approximate quality of wins and losses.

[paulxu]

Whatcha think?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[paulxu]

And on another front, the media guys tried to create a bracket using the committee rules, and came up with this:

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/207193076?access_key=key-2et7274151vgbzqcvuk8&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll

Wouldn't that make for an interesting journey...and little chance to see them in person. San Diego for Gonzaga and the Raccoon.
Anaheim for revenge on Iowa and Duke. Notice how I took us right through to the FF?

[OH.X.MI]

I might say Gtown in over Providence. Friars have lost 4 of the last 5, Hoyas have won 4 out of the last 5 with a close loss at Nova and an impressive win over MSU. Gtown seems to be clicking from what I've seen lately, I think they will find a way to ride that into the dance. I

[gladdenguy]

Blew a chance to get one step closer. What tournament this team participates in is really up in the air.
Not a single good road win on the resume. One good win on a neutral court and a bad loss on a neutral court along with a bad loss at home. Who knows.
This team is not good enough to win @St Johns or @Georgetown or beat Villanova at home.
Gonna come down to Creighton at home and Seton Hall on the road.

[XMuskieFTW]

I wouldn't say they're not good enough to win those games. If they can limit the turnovers they'll be fine. If Xavier plays their game today with the normal amount of times they turn the ball over they win easily. This team should make the tournament and is good enough. I think it will take a massive implosion for us to not make it. Wouldn't shock me though

[kyxu]

I'm not sure where Xavier will be playing in March, but today, they took me to a dark place.

[bjf123]

If today's team continues to show up, we'll only win against DePaul at home. We'll have no shot on the road or against Villanova or Creighton at home.


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[XUFan09]

Blew a chance to get one step closer. What tournament this team participates in is really up in the air.
Not a single good road win on the resume. One good win on a neutral court and a bad loss on a neutral court along with a bad loss at home. Who knows.
This team is not good enough to win @St Johns or @Georgetown or beat Villanova at home.
Gonna come down to Creighton at home and Seton Hall on the road.

Two things:

"This team is not good enough..." really depends on which team shows up. Tonight's team with all the turnovers and poor defense on the one good shooter? Hell no. But this team has proven it has a wide range of possible performances.

Interesting that you mention Creighton as an important game but already give up on Villanova. I don't view these two teams too differently. Do you disagree or is it simply an issue of match-ups?

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[OTRMUSKIE]

Okay relax people, did you really think X was going to win today? They beat Butler which was a must. This game wasn't a must. They need to beat DePaul, they will. They will lose to Johns and Town but I promise you they will beat Nova and Creighton. The only game that scares me is Seton Hall. That is going to be the game that will decide Xavier's fate. I understand why people are down but don't panick yet. If they lose to DePaul, Seton Hall, Creighton or Nova then you can say I told you so. Until that happens I will be getting ready to watch this team in the NCAA. Honestly, Marquette is the only team in the Big East that I think X just doesn't match up with. Keep the faith my Xavier brethren, X will be dancing. Always remember we don't kNIT, that is what Dayton does.

[xudash]

Some random thoughts from my peanut gallery:

This is our first year in this conference.

We were picked to come in around seventh place, yet we are presently tied for third place. I understand we still have a rough schedule to face to close out the conference season, but everyone else has to play their games as well.

Obviously, our roster is not yet stocked with Big East level personnel.

Perceptions regarding talent aside, our kids have demonstrated that they can perform all across the spectrum; they can play in such a way as to obliterate UC and Butler, and they can soil the bed as demonstrated in games against Seton Hall at home and Marquette and Villanova away.

Perhaps some of this is about growing pains. Not only are there no relative nights off against programs like Fordham and Duquesne, but they found themselves in an NBA arena today in front of 18,000 people. Should that be an excuse? No, probably not. But I'm otherwise finding it hard to explain some of their turnovers, especially some of the lazy passes that got picked off.

They are Xavier. There's no way they are feeling good this evening. They have pride and I assume they will come back with intensity and focus.

It goes without saying that we have to take out DePaul. Then I would really like to see us go into another NBA arena on the road and take out one of the stalwarts of this conference. One step at a time. We absolutely are not in the A10 any longer.

[XUFan09]

I agree that Marquette is a tough match-up (I was really happy about the win at home, and Xavier was 4-1 at the time). I wasn't expecting a win, though I was disappointed in how the loss developed. I hope Xavier doesn't face them in the conference tournament. Probably one of the worst match-ups they could face.

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[paulxu]

but they found themselves in an NBA arena today in front of 18,000 people.

Dash, I wonder if this is the largest conference game crowd Xavier has every played before?

[X-band '01]

Isn't 18,000 the same attendance Creighton had for Xavier last month (if not more)?

[paulxu]

17,589 at Creighton per ESPN.

(this is not your father's Buick; or Lexus for that matter)

[xumuskies08]

17,589 was the attendance at Creighton. 18,644 were in attendance yesterday.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I'm not worried about not making the dance. We'll make it. I'd rather be a 10 or 11 seed than an 8-9 seed anyway..

Luckily, X has DePaul at home which is obviously a must win but it can instill some confidence in the team before a couple of big road games.

Xavier is a different, much more confident team at home too and they'll be as pumped as anyone to get another chance at Creighton and Nova. We'll win at least one of those games.

[bjf123]

I disagree and think yesterday's game was a must win. To be safely in the dance, I think we need 20 or 21 regular season wins. A DePaul win get us to 18. I'm not sure I see two or three more after that.


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[XUFan09]

I disagree and think yesterday's game was a must win. To be safely in the dance, I think we need 20 or 21 regular season wins. A DePaul win get us to 18. I'm not sure I see two or three more after that.

How was this specific game a "must win"? Xavier's chances of beating Marquette on the road were similar to their upcoming chances of winning @St. John's or @Georgetown. The probability of beating Creighton or Villanova at home aren't too different from beating Marquette on the road.

They have four games in which they are minor underdogs (@Georgetown, @St. Johns, Creighton, Villanova). They have one game that's a coin flip (@Seton Hall). It's very likely that they can get at least two wins out of that group, which with a conference tournament win will probably be enough.

You should really check out some of the bubble teams if you think that's not good enough.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I wouldn't go as far as to call yesterday must win, but it now puts greater importance on the St. John's and Georgetown games. At worst X has to split those. Unfortunately those are the 2 hottest teams in the conference right now. No gimmes after the DePaul game, X has an opportunity to either solidify it's tourney standing or make the Big East Tourney a must win to get in.

[bjf123]

I wouldn't go as far as to call yesterday must win, but it now puts greater importance on the St. John's and Georgetown games. At worst X has to split those. Unfortunately those are the 2 hottest teams in the conference right now. No gimmes after the DePaul game, X has an opportunity to either solidify it's tourney standing or make the Big East Tourney a must win to get in.

That's why I think the Marquette game was must win. DePaul should be a relatively easy win. Georgetown and St. John's are both playing great right now. Villanova and Creighton are, well, Villanova and Creighton. That leaves Seton Hall who's already beaten us at home. After DePaul, we need 2 or 3 wins, and I just don't see them.


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[THRILLHOUSE]

That's why I think the Marquette game was must win. DePaul should be a relatively easy win. Georgetown and St. John's are both playing great right now. Villanova and Creighton are, well, Villanova and Creighton. That leaves Seton Hall who's already beaten us at home. After DePaul, we need 2 or 3 wins, and I just don't see them.


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Yeah I don't disagree. I think X will beat DePaul and Seton Hall, and will split STJ/Gtown and Creighton/Nova. That should be enough to get us in. Not that I'm 100% confident in that scenario happening. It's a tough stretch, anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised.

[Retire33]

I believe whatever team finishes in third place (regardless of record) will go dancing. The 4th and 5th place teams could be on either side of bubble depending in whom that team is and the record that puts them in that point in standings.

[XU2011]

Are there people who really still think we will make the tournament?

I think we will beat DePaul at home and Seton Hall on the road.

There is no way we beat Creighton or Villanova. We cannot stop Creighton's offense and we won't be able to keep up with it unless we have a freak shooting night. Villanova... That will be painful to watch.

And if you think we can beat St Johns ok the road? Did you watch the game last night? Our best chance for a third win is Georgetown away. Unless we make a run in the BE tournament, that is not enough to get us in

[94GRAD]

Are there people who really still think we will make the tournament?

I think we will beat DePaul at home and Seton Hall on the road.

There is no way we beat Creighton or Villanova. We cannot stop Creighton's offense and we won't be able to keep up with it unless we have a freak shooting night. Villanova... That will be painful to watch.

And if you think we can beat St Johns ok the road? Did you watch the game last night? Our best chance for a third win is Georgetown away. Unless we make a run in the BE tournament, that is not enough to get us in

I, for one, think we we make the NCAA's.

[Michigan Muskie]

I love all the absolutes in this thread (among others.) We're discussing one of the most unpredictable teams of Xavier's modern era yet so many people know exactly what is going to happen the rest of the season. Hell, why even play out the rest of the schedule? Just come to XavierHoops.com to get your results and let's move on to the NFL draft.

Incidentally, have any of you watched college basketball outside of Xavier this year? Other teams lose, too. Good ones, even. (I'm sure there was at least one member of NebraskaHoops.com that said there is NO WAY this team can win at East Lansing.)

[GoMuskies]

The good news is that you don't have to be very good to just barely sneak into the First Four (or whatever they're calling it). The bad news is that it's in Dayton.

[xumuskies08]

Are there people who really still think we will make the tournament?

I think we will beat DePaul at home and Seton Hall on the road.

There is no way we beat Creighton or Villanova. We cannot stop Creighton's offense and we won't be able to keep up with it unless we have a freak shooting night. Villanova... That will be painful to watch.

And if you think we can beat St Johns ok the road? Did you watch the game last night? Our best chance for a third win is Georgetown away. Unless we make a run in the BE tournament, that is not enough to get us in

X lost to Creighton...on the road...by 6. Butler took Creighton to the wire 2 days after X THROTTLED the Bulldogs. But yes, it is impossible for X to beat Creighton.

Have a little faith.

[xumuskies08]

The good news is that you don't have to be very good to just barely sneak into the First Four (or whatever they're calling it). The bad news is that it's in Dayton.

Not saying I'd like for X to be in the First Four, but can you imagine how many Muskie fans would make the hour drive up to UD? We'd take that dump over.

[kyxu]

Will Xavier dance? Yes, absolutely.

Are the next six games going to be a challenge, yielding a roller coaster of emotions from the Xavier faithful? Most definitely.

I've spoken on this matter, so let's just go ahead and close this thread.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV-Z1YwaOiw

[XUFan09]

X lost to Creighton...on the road...by 6. Butler took Creighton to the wire 2 days after X THROTTLED the Bulldogs. But yes, it is impossible for X to beat Creighton.

Have a little faith.

Not even necessarily have a little faith. Just have a little sense. With the schedule Xavier put together, 20 wins and a conference tournament win should get them in. That would mean winning 3 out of 6 to finish the season. Definitely doable. For some people, it's like if it isn't a guarantee, though, they just act like there's no way it will happen.

Like Michigan Muskie said, I love all the absolutes in this thread (on both sides).

[xubrew]

Not even necessarily have a little faith. Just have a little sense. With the schedule Xavier put together, 20 wins and a conference tournament win should get them in. That would mean winning 3 out of 6 to finish the season. Definitely doable. For some people, it's like if it isn't a guarantee, though, they just act like there's no way it will happen.

Like Michigan Muskie said, I love all the absolutes in this thread (on both sides).

Not necessarily.

There was a year where Penn State won 22 games, finished with a winning record in the Big Ten, had six top 25 wins, and was left out. They did nothing on the road.

If Xavier goes 3-3 and only wins the home games, there are far more cases of teams with a profile like that being left out than being selected. They won't have a true road win against a team that ends the year with a winning record. I'm not going to go so far to say that no team has ever gotten in with just three true road wins, and none of those were against teams with winning records, but I think you'd be VERY hard pressed to find an example of a team that did.

[GoMuskies]

I have a hard time believing that Xavier is going to beat Creighton AND Villanova down the stretch and still get left out of the Tournament.

[mistabeecee41]

i think it's pretty straight forward. 4-2 and i feel comfortable.

must wins - depaul, at seton hall
split - @ g'town, @ st. johns
split - beat either nova or creighton.

[XUFan09]

Not necessarily.

There was a year where Penn State won 22 games, finished with a winning record in the Big Ten, had six top 25 wins, and was left out. They did nothing on the road.

If Xavier goes 3-3 and only wins the home games, there are far more cases of teams with a profile like that being left out than being selected. They won't have a true road win against a team that ends the year with a winning record. I'm not going to go so far to say that no team has ever gotten in with just three true road wins, and none of those were against teams with winning records, but I think you'd be VERY hard pressed to find an example of a team that did.

The lack of road wins hurts, but Xavier would have a solid conference record and their expected OOC SOS is good too.

[xubrew]

I have a hard time believing that Xavier is going to beat Creighton AND Villanova down the stretch and still get left out of the Tournament.

PROBABLY not, but they've done it before.

Because the committee changes year to year, the points of emphasis also change from year to year, so you never know for sure. But, in recent years, there seems to be a HUUUGE emphasis on road wins, OOC SOS, and OOC wins. If you look at the teams they've taken as opposed to the ones they haven't, that is the most glaring distinction.

They also seem to be more strict (for lack of a better term) with the power conference teams.

[xubrew]

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist. Having said that, I do have a conspiracy theory, which I know makes me a hypocrite, but I can't help it.

There have been multiple cases in recent years where I thought the committee left teams out and/or selected teams just to make a point about scheduling games away from home.