2013-14 Bubble Watch

[X-band '01]

Jerry Palm's 1st Installment - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch)

So far, Xavier is in the top group after the Providence win. Providence and Georgetown were both listed in the middle group and St. John's was listed in the bottom group.

[The_Mack_Pack]

This 5 game stretch is huge. I would feel pretty good if they can get at least 3 wins out of it. 4 wins would all but lock up a tourney spot unless they really blow it in the last few games.

[GoMuskies]

Makes me feel better about our position to see scrubs like Dayton and Indiana still on the fence.

[XUFan09]

4-4 the rest of the way and a conference tournament win and Xavier makes it in the tournament, albeit with a low seed. 3-5 and they might make it with two conference tournament wins.

[GoMuskies]

Two conference tournament wins would mean a win over Nova or Creighton, so I do think we'd get in then even if we're 3-5 the rest of the way.

[XUFan09]

Two conference tournament wins would mean a win over Nova or Creighton, so I do think we'd get in then even if we're 3-5 the rest of the way.

Ah, good point.

[drudy23]

At this point, just get in...who cares what the seed is. I'd take an 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12....preferably a 10.

[xsteve1]

2 home wins over Creighton and Nova would probably get X in.

[Fireball]

2 home wins over Creighton and Nova would probably get X in.

Outside of losing every other game on their schedule, beating both of those teams definitely gets Xavier in. Quite honestly, I think a win in ONE of those games gets Xavier in.

[bleedXblue]

Outside of losing every other game on their schedule, beating both of those teams definitely gets Xavier in. Quite honestly, I think a win in ONE of those games gets Xavier in.

Creighton looked very beatable last night. Lavins game plan must have worked. Not sure what he was doing but I hope Mack saves the tape and uses it. I know Sampson was all over McDermott the last 5 minutes of the game.

[kyxu]

Creighton looked very beatable last night. Lavins game plan must have worked. Not sure what he was doing but I hope Mack saves the tape and uses it. I know Sampson was all over McDermott the last 5 minutes of the game.

An analyst brought up a good point, but the key to stymy Creighton wasn't bottling McDermott, but Wragge. McDermott will get his, but someone needs to put an athletic big to blanket Wragge, and St. John's has the athleticism and length on defense to frustrate Creighton.

[Muskie1000]

An analyst brought up a good point, but the key to stymy Creighton wasn't bottling McDermott, but Wragge. McDermott will get his, but someone needs to put an athletic big to blanket Wragge, and St. John's has the athleticism and length on defense to frustrate Creighton.

I completely agree but as everyone remembers you can't leave McDermott completely alone or he will kill you with a 3 at the end of the game. I think that is the game plan - bottle up Wragge and just harass McDermott. The question is, do we have the athleticism to do that? Put Martin on Wragge, who do you put on McDermott? I just don't think we are that strong to do that.

[bleedXblue]

An analyst brought up a good point, but the key to stymy Creighton wasn't bottling McDermott, but Wragge. McDermott will get his, but someone needs to put an athletic big to blanket Wragge, and St. John's has the athleticism and length on defense to frustrate Creighton.

I have watched a lot of Creighton, but enough to know that he isnt all that athletic........the problem is that he's like 6'8' and shoot from 5 feet behind the arc.......who do we have that can guard him?

[kyxu]

I completely agree but as everyone remembers you can't leave McDermott completely alone or he will kill you with a 3 at the end of the game. I think that is the game plan - bottle up Wragge and just harass McDermott. The question is, do we have the athleticism to do that? Put Martin on Wragge, who do you put on McDermott? I just don't think we are that strong to do that.

I really do not think we have the defensive personnel to defend Creighton. If we do beat them, it will be because of a poor shooting night.

[Masterofreality]

My question about Creighton all year has been when the season gets deep and the legs are tired, will those 3's still fall?

Maybe not.

[XUFan09]

I have watched a lot of Creighton, but enough to know that he isnt all that athletic........the problem is that he's like 6'8' and shoot from 5 feet behind the arc.......who do we have that can guard him?

Martin might be the best option because Wragge will never put the ball on the floor to cut past him, so Martin's weak lateral quickness won't be exposed.

McDermott is hard though. Philmore can guard him pretty effectively when he tries to post up underneath but it's a different story on the perimeter. An athletic 4 would probably be the best option, but the only one Xavier has is a freshman who hasn't proven himself ready for serious minutes yet.

[bleedXblue]

Martin might be the best option because Wragge will never put the ball on the floor to cut past him, so Martin's weak lateral quickness won't be exposed.

McDermott is hard though. Philmore can guard him pretty effectively when he tries to post up underneath but it's a different story on the perimeter. An athletic 4 would probably be the best option, but the only one Xavier has is a freshman who hasn't proven himself ready for serious minutes yet.

Semaj may be the only option, but in the post he will be eaten alive.

I think game plan and situational changes will be the only way we can hope to get the out of their game.

[drudy23]

We don't have anyone that can stop McDermott...but nobody else does either. That's why he's going to be the POY. He doesn't score 43, and then disappears for 10. He's a consistent 23-30 every night, and has the capability of 45. He does everything well, and is a matchup nightmare for pretty much 99.9% of opposing defenders.

Wragge, in theory, is an easy guard. Wragge AS JUST a shooter doesn't scare me. The problem comes in when you're unable to guard the guys who feed him the ball. Most defenders will lag off of Wragge in help defense....if you do that, you're done. You can't leave him....EVER...not even at 35 feet. He's not going to go by you. Martin seems like the best fit, but Martin's mind can wander...that's not a good fit for someone who has to know where their guy is every second of the game. But I also don't know who the alternative woudl be...maybe Philmore.

[bigdiggins]

We don't have anyone that can stop McDermott...but nobody else does either. That's why he's going to be the POY. He doesn't score 43, and then disappears for 10. He's a consistent 23-30 every night, and has the capability of 45. He does everything well, and is a matchup nightmare for pretty much 99.9% of opposing defenders.

Wragge, in theory, is an easy guard. Wragge AS JUST a shooter doesn't scare me. The problem comes in when you're unable to guard the guys who feed him the ball. Most defenders will lag off of Wragge in help defense....if you do that, you're done. You can't leave him....EVER...not even at 35 feet. He's not going to go by you. Martin seems like the best fit, but Martin's mind can wander...that's not a good fit for someone who has to know where their guy is every second of the game. But I also don't know who the alternative woudl be...maybe Philmore.

I don't think the problem is necessarily even matching up with Wragge and McDermott as much as it's who is left. A lot of the time those two are playing the 4 and the 5. If you put Philmore and Martin on Wragge and McDermott respectively who is Stainbrook guarding? A wing? I think Stainbrook has to guard Wragge when he's in, and for offense and rebounding he needs to be in his normal minutes.

[profson]

I don't think the problem is necessarily even matching up with Wragge and McDermott as much as it's who is left. A lot of the time those two are playing the 4 and the 5. If you put Philmore and Martin on Wragge and McDermott respectively who is Stainbrook guarding? A wing? I think Stainbrook has to guard Wragge when he's in, and for offense and rebounding he needs to be in his normal minutes.

Exactly right. It is even worse, because when Stainbrook is out trying to guard Wragge he isn't in position for the defensive rebounds, plus chasing Wragge tires Stainbrook out.
At a minimum I would make sure Stainbrook is in when Artino is.
I think there is a limited amount XU can do to stop the Creighton offense. The way to victory is to hope they have an off night shooting and XU exploits its advantage on offense by pounding down to Stainbrook and Philmore, thereby forcing Creighton to bring Artino in.

[xuwin]

I have watched a lot of Creighton, but enough to know that he isnt all that athletic........the problem is that he's like 6'8' and shoot from 5 feet behind the arc.......who do we have that can guard him?

Keep somebody in his grill as soon as he crosses mid court and don't let him breath the first half. When he started to get tired legs in the second half against us his effectiveness dropped off considerably. St Johns matches up better against them because they have big athletic guards to match up with their outside shooters. If Amos is healthy now maybe he would be a possibility to provide some defense on Wragge. He definitely could hang with him and has some size.

[XUFan09]

Exactly right. It is even worse, because when Stainbrook is out trying to guard Wragge he isn't in position for the defensive rebounds, plus chasing Wragge tires Stainbrook out.
At a minimum I would make sure Stainbrook is in when Artino is.
I think there is a limited amount XU can do to stop the Creighton offense. The way to victory is to hope they have an off night shooting and XU exploits its advantage on offense by pounding down to Stainbrook and Philmore, thereby forcing Creighton to bring Artino in.

Xavier is one of only three teams, along with San Diego State and St. Joseph's (near the very beginning of the year), who has been able to mostly keep up with Creighton offensively. To a degree, they might have to try it that way again. Xavier doesn't have a good answer for both McDermott and Wragge on the floor, but Creighton has little answer for Stainbrook and absolutely no answer for Semaj. It's a question of who can better exploit those mismatches.

If Martin is guarding Wragge, he can step out to 30 feet to do it, but if Stainbrook has to do it, Xavier could be conceding the defensive glass. That could be more harmful than conceding a couple more thirty-foot attempts from Wragge, especially since Stainbrook could get worn out too.

[xubrew]

Two things the committee seems to look at closely is out of conference strength of schedule, and wins on the road.

Look at the teams that ended up inside the bubble last year. La Salle, Boise, Middle Tennessee and SMC. The one thing they had in common over the teams that didn't get in was that they were better road teams. They also all played decent to good OOC schedules.

Right now, we have two true road wins. If we don't get any more than that, I don't think they'll take us. Four of our next five games are on the road, and five of our last eight are on the road. If we finish 3-5 and only win the home games, we're out. Teams with two true road wins have made the tournament, but it is rare, and of the teams that have done it they've had better profiles than what ours will look like.

I've said this before, but as far as impressing the committee, we did not do ourselves any favors by only scheduling one true OOC road game, and that was against a sub-NIT team.

[GoMuskies]

I didn't have any problem with only one true road non-conference game. We really hurt ourselves on the road/neutral metric with the performance in the Bahamas, though. Get two of those three like we should have, and the resume looks a whole let better (particularly in the record away from home category). UC being a neutral site game I think will help tremendously.

[drudy23]

Keep somebody in his grill as soon as he crosses mid court and don't let him breath the first half. When he started to get tired legs in the second half against us his effectiveness dropped off considerably. St Johns matches up better against them because they have big athletic guards to match up with their outside shooters. If Amos is healthy now maybe he would be a possibility to provide some defense on Wragge. He definitely could hang with him and has some size.

Amos? Um...no.

That would effectively be playing 4 on 5. I love how people think our walk-ons can come in and be difference makers against Top 15 teams.

[xuwin]

Amos? Um...no.

That would effectively be playing 4 on 5. I love how people think our walk-ons can come in and be difference makers against Top 15 teams.

Amos was a very effective defensive replacement last year against some teams. He is not a liability on defense.

[drudy23]

Amos was a very effective defensive replacement last year against some teams. He is not a liability on defense.

But he is on offense. He gives you nothing...ZERO...ZILTCH...We already have 6 guys that can't score consistently. Basically, that means a double on either Stain or Semaj....not good. Effectively, 4 on 5...HUGE advantage for not just a good team, but a very good team.

[GoMuskies]

But he is on offense. He gives you nothing...ZERO...ZILTCH...

Occasionally he'll miss a dunk. So there's that.

[xuwin]

But he is on offense. He gives you nothing...ZERO...ZILTCH...We already have 6 guys that can't score consistently. Basically, that means a double on either Stain or Semaj....not good. Effectively, 4 on 5...HUGE advantage for not just a good team, but a very good team.

If as you say we have 6 guys that can't score what are we losing since a few of them can't play defense either.

[drudy23]

If he's such as asset, and we needs defenders, then why hasn't he even sniffed the floor in the past 2 weeks...against much worse teams than Creighton...when we were awful on the defensive end?

What does that matter...he can probably shut down Dougie McBuckets because in this one interview, Mack said he was a really good defender.

[ammtd34]

If as you say we have 6 guys that can't score what are we losing since a few of them can't play defense either.

There's a big difference between not scoring consistently and not being able to throw someone the ball.

[X-band '01]

UMass is losing by double digits at home to George Mason; a loss wouldn't put them on the bubble by itself, but you have to wonder if some of their tightrope wins are starting to catch up to them.

[GoMuskies]

Scratch the Hoosiers off the Bubble.

Add Crean to the coaches on the hot seat.

[Juice]

Scratch the Hoosiers off the Bubble.

Add Crean to the coaches on the hot seat.

It amazes me how bad he is at coaching (not recruiting).

[bleedXblue]

Scratch the Hoosiers off the Bubble.

Add Crean to the coaches on the hot seat.

I think thats a bit strong and premature.

Is it warming up...yes, but not hot yet

[throwbackmuskie]

14-10 with all that talent at IU, ouch

[Milhouse]

Noah Vonleh is such a beast too. Really could be a top 5 pick.

[GoMuskies]

I think thats a bit strong and premature.

Is it warming up...yes, but not hot yet

Short of losing out, there's no way he's getting fired this year. But I'd say there's a real possibility of it happening next year if they do not get things together. So I'd say the seat is real warm at this point.

[Muskie]

I suspect they may hold off to see how Brad Stevens does with the Celtics after this year. After the circus the last couple of times, they'll want to make sure they get their #1 guy this time if they let Crean go.

[LA Muskie]

Playing with a patchwork team (and without its best player for most of the season), Stevens is outperforming expectations. Hell given the crappiness that is the East they are only 4.5 games out of playoff contention. If he's fired in the next few years it will be for winning too much.

[GoMuskies]

After a couple of years in the NBA, Stevens might also just decide he'd rather be a college basketball coach than an NBA one. One never knows.

[Ledgewood]

After a couple of years in the NBA, Stevens might also just decide he'd rather be a college basketball coach than an NBA one. One never knows.

If he doesn't get the Celts deep into the playoffs soon enough that could be decided for him.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Crean has a massive buyout so he'll probably be around for another couple of years even if things don't go well. Also, Stevens will win a lot of NBA games once he gets some real players on his roster.

[GoMuskies]

If IU decides Crean isn't the answer, they'll pony up for the buyout. IU isn't going to be saddled with a basketball coach they don't want over a buyout. This is IU we're talking about, not DePaul.

Crean would be a really excellent hire for DePaul, though, if IU dumps him.

[xubrew]

UMass is losing by double digits at home to George Mason; a loss wouldn't put them on the bubble by itself, but you have to wonder if some of their tightrope wins are starting to catch up to them.

Losing to George Mason should automatically disqualify a team from the NCAA Tournament. They barely beat them the first time. Paul Hewitt has managed to crash George Mason into the mountain. Considering that he is the person Mason decided to hire after Larranaga left, it may be awhile before they are in any way relevant again.


Scratch the Hoosiers off the Bubble.

Add Crean to the coaches on the hot seat.

At least they didn't lose to George Mason.