Are we making the tournament?

[Xavier]

Ultimately I say yes, but only because the bubble is always horrible. Try to remind myself the only unexpected game was SH loss at home. Other than that, I say X has been on par with what I expect. (Providence being a coin flip). The concern is how bad Xavier has looked in these past three games.


Feel free to delete this, classic quick game overreaction.

[bjf123]

No. Next question.


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[LadyMuskie]

I really don't know. When we play well, we play really well and I think we could take on any team in the nation and give them a run for their money. When we play poorly, we play as if we've never been on a basketball court before. We're not the least bit consistent from one game to the next. Our effort level ebbs and flows. It's frustrating as hell. If we do make it to the dance, I just hope we don't play like we did tonight and embarrass ourselves on the big stage. I hope someone decides to step it up and kick some ass into gear.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Yes

[Xavier]

I completely agree, looking at rest of the schedule if X is playing well I could see 7 wins. But play like we have I could see 4-5 wins.

[Xavgrad08]

If we play like the last 3 games the answer is no. I am optimistic we will start playing better. The losses to USC and Seton Hall will certainly give the selection committee something the think about. The bubble is absolutely horrible this year.

[Burrcats]

You guys still have 3 tournament caliber teams at home, so you guys control your own destiny. Also, you cannot lose to Butler, DePaul or Seton Hall. Now think if you were in the real Big East?

[XMuskieFTW]

Yes. Finish 6-3 in conference 1-1 in conference tourney. Finish 22-11 and get a 9 seed.

[Xavier]

You guys still have 3 tournament caliber teams at home, so you guys control your own destiny. Also, you cannot lose to Butler, DePaul or Seton Hall. Now think if you were in the real Big East?

Agreed, I'd like to play in the AAC- especially after seeing what we did to their best team. But, this is still the right move for Xavier. When was last time a mid-major won it all? Can count Them out of any chance to do so if they were in a league like that.

[Burrcats]

Agreed, I'd like to play in the AAC- especially after seeing what we did to their best team. But, this is still the right move for Xavier. When was last time a mid-major won it all? Can count Them out of any chance to do so if they were in a league like that.

Agreed. I do not see anyone from the AAC or Big East winning a title any time soon. Although, two of the last three National Champions are currently in the AAC.

[LadyMuskie]

Now think if you were in the real Big East?

Why is this guy still around?

[xsteve1]

You guys still have 3 tournament caliber teams at home, so you guys control your own destiny. Also, you cannot lose to Butler, DePaul or Seton Hall. Now think if you were in the real Big East?

X would have done fine in the old Big East with the teams Miller assembled. X is still adjusting to the Dez fiasco and should come around next year.

[bjf123]

Yes. Finish 6-3 in conference 1-1 in conference tourney. Finish 22-11 and get a 9 seed.

While I like your thinking we'll finish 6-3, in the emotional trench after the pathetic game against Nova, I think we'll finish 1-8 and head to the NIT.


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[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Our effort level ebbs and flows. It's frustrating as hell. If we do make it to the dance, I just hope we don't play like we did tonight and embarrass ourselves on the big stage.

No tournament if this continues. Agreed. The Big East is a Big Stage. That's embarrassing as hell.

[gladdenguy]

This f--king Burrcats fan must have NO f--king life. Trolling a Xavier board. Get bent you f--ken nerd.

As for Xavier. This team is not a tournament team. There is one win I see....Depaul. I don't think they can win one game on the road.
I don't think they will beat Creighton or Villanova at home....both teams are significantly better and better coached. Providence is a toss up. Let's see how many they can get down in that one.

Mack is going downhill quickly. His teams do not get better as the season goes on. Dez was an excuse for last year but its time to move on. The last 3 games have been embarrassing. That starts with him. Absolutely pathetic.

[vee4xu]

Ask me again after the Providence game.

[SkyWalker]

As for making the tournament, Saturday is really, really important.

[Burrcats]

This f--king Burrcats fan must have NO f--king life. Trolling a Xavier board. Get bent you f--ken nerd.

As for Xavier. This team is not a tournament team. There is one win I see....Depaul. I don't think they can win one game on the road.
I don't think they will beat Creighton or Villanova at home....both teams are significantly better and better coached. Providence is a toss up. Let's see how many they can get down in that one.

Mack is going downhill quickly. His teams do not get better as the season goes on. Dez was an excuse for last year but its time to move on. The last 3 games have been embarrassing. That starts with him. Absolutely pathetic.

Don't overreact my friend. You still have the second half of your league schedule to play. There will be plenty of chances to solidify a tournament berth

[waggy]

Unequivocally.

[sirthought]

A chance to make the tournament? Barely, but I'm pessimistic. They look defeated before games even get moving. No swagger.

Talent is there to win more than they have, but Mack DOES need to put a rest to the pack line for his current personnel.

Seeing what we see at this stage, going with a 2-3 zone to save Stainbrook and Philmore seems smarter. Yeah, our guards have done poorly against 3-point shooters, but try something new and see if they can improve in that area. Anything to keep our bigs from going outside of their comfort area on the court. Our guards can guard an opposing big if he's playing 20 feet out.

The remaining schedule is difficult. The team can't reach the tournament with how they play currently. Try something new and see what we can learn.
I understand those who will stay Mack should stay the course and wait for the light to click on with his guys. But this is basketball and there are lots of approaches to winning. Let's see what you've got coach, cuz at this stage you have nothing to lose by teaching something different.

[Classof1985]

A chance to make the tournament? Barely, but I'm pessimistic. They look defeated before games even get moving. No swagger.

Talent is there to win more than they have, but Mack DOES need to put a rest to the pack line for his current personnel.

Seeing what we see at this stage, going with a 2-3 zone to save Stainbrook and Philmore seems smarter. Yeah, our guards have done poorly against 3-point shooters, but try something new and see if they can improve in that area. Anything to keep our bigs from going outside of their comfort area on the court. Our guards can guard an opposing big if he's playing 20 feet out.

The remaining schedule is difficult. The team can't reach the tournament with how they play currently. Try something new and see what we can learn.
I understand those who will stay Mack should stay the course and wait for the light to click on with his guys. But this is basketball and there are lots of approaches to winning. Let's see what you've got coach, cuz at this stage you have nothing to lose by teaching something different.

The guards aren't long enough to cover the shooters and cut off the foul line to play lots of zone.

[LadyMuskie]

The Big East is a Big Stage. That's embarrassing as hell.

True. I should have said "on a bigger stage". I can take losing. I hate losing because we decided not to show up and play hard.

[XU 87]

yes

[xubrew]

If you felt Xavier was in before today, then you should still feel they are in. That isn't exactly the kind of loss that the selection committee frowns upon. It's the kind of win they like, but it's not the kind of loss they don't like.

[fellahmuskie]

We're going dancing this March.

[Kahns Krazy]

A season is a lifetime, and there is plenty of life left in this one. If we play like we have in the last week, not as likely as if we play like we did in December. It's not really rocket science.

[X-man]

This team, which played as a team for much of this season, has seemingly reverted to playing as a collection of individuals for the last several games. This has caused problems at both ends of the floor, and IMHO means that we simply need to return to team concepts on defense and offense to insure that we return to the Dance this year.

[DoubleD86]

While I like your thinking we'll finish 6-3, in the emotional trench after the pathetic game against Nova, I think we'll finish 1-8 and head to the NIT.


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This f--king Burrcats fan must have NO f--king life. Trolling a Xavier board. Get bent you f--ken nerd.

As for Xavier. This team is not a tournament team. There is one win I see....Depaul. I don't think they can win one game on the road.
I don't think they will beat Creighton or Villanova at home....both teams are significantly better and better coached. Providence is a toss up. Let's see how many they can get down in that one.

Mack is going downhill quickly. His teams do not get better as the season goes on. Dez was an excuse for last year but its time to move on. The last 3 games have been embarrassing. That starts with him. Absolutely pathetic.

Can I bet the two of you that we win more than 1 game remaining? Really, name your price.

[chico]

We're in. Things haven't been going well the past couple weeks but this team will make some adjustments and pull out of it.

[nuts4xu]

I am not optimistic. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see anything in this team that tells me they are capable of making a run into the NCAA tourney.

[Lamont Sanford]

Gotta go with nuts on this. Of the remaining 9 games in the regular season, I only see DePaul at home on the 19th as a win. All of the remaining roads games are losses and we still have Nova and Creighton coming to town. CBI or NIT is most likely for this bunch before Semaj takes his game to the League.

[XUFan09]

Don't overreact my friend. You still have the second half of your league schedule to play. There will be plenty of chances to solidify a tournament berth

Overreacting to poor play is his style. It probably works as an understandable coping mechanism for potential disappointment...too bad he has to share it with all of us.

[XUFan09]

I really don't know. When we play well, we play really well and I think we could take on any team in the nation and give them a run for their money. When we play poorly, we play as if we've never been on a basketball court before. We're not the least bit consistent from one game to the next. Our effort level ebbs and flows. It's frustrating as hell. If we do make it to the dance, I just hope we don't play like we did tonight and embarrass ourselves on the big stage. I hope someone decides to step it up and kick some ass into gear.

This sums it up nicely. When this team is clicking, it plays like a high tournament seed (not a 1 or 2 but somewhere in the the 3 to 6 range). When it isn't, it plays like an NIT team. The long-term truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, which is why I think this team will make the tournament, most likely in the 8-12 seed range.

[markchal]

It's true that the bubble is pretty weak. I think the Big East will get 4 teams in. Creighton and Nova will be high seeds, the question will be the other two. I could see X or Providence in the 7-8 range and then another in the 11-12 range. If we do manage to get in, I think we could make some noise because this team can be impressive when they play with confidence. We could just as easily bow out in a blowout, so you never really know with this team.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Sadly, there isn't any way I see this team dancing. 9-9 Conference record seems like a stretch, even after the 5-1 start.

[vee4xu]

As I suggested in the Dumpster thread, the ride to the NCAA tournament starts with Providence this Saturday. They started this current skid and X owes them one. Skids start easily and can be reversed just as easily and I think they'll start the reversal process against Providence. It takes focused, productive practice sessions this week and carrying that effort into the game. As Kahns said above, it isn't rocket science.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I can't believe some of you seriously think X will go 1-9 down the stretch.. Are you guys for real? Come on now. Overreaction at it's finest.

[bjf123]

Overreaction? Absolutely! At the same time, with the 9 games left, I think 1-8 is much more likely than 8-1, 7-2, or even 6-3. I'll be very happy with 5-4, or even 4-5, which would keep our .500 or better conference record streak alive.


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[DC Muskie]

1-8? No way. What are we Dayton? Come on.

[Burrcats]

St. Johns beating Providence is interesting. I think that win puts the Jonnies back in contention for an at-large bid (they still get Creighton and Xavier at home). Georgetown also has new life and still has Creighton and Xavier at home as well. The question is, how many bids can the Big East get? I have a hard time seeing them getting to 5. Spots 3 & 4 very likely could come down to Providence, Xavier, Georgetown and St. Johns. A lot of basketball to play.

[xeus]

St. Johns beating Providence is interesting. I think that win puts the Jonnies back in contention for an at-large bid (they still get Creighton and Xavier at home). Georgetown also has new life and still has Creighton and Xavier at home as well. The question is, how many bids can the Big East get? I have a hard time seeing them getting to 5. Spots 3 & 4 very likely could come down to Providence, Xavier, Georgetown and St. Johns. A lot of basketball to play.

Cool that you are still a Big East fan!

[Burrcats]

Cool that you are still a Big East fan!

It is definitely the most interesting conference right now. I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the AAC will get 5 bids (unless SMU falls of the map the last month) but the Big East is just so weird. I am curious to see how the committee handles it. There are only two "locks" but the league as a whole doesn't really have true RPI-killers, so most of the middle of pack will hang around for contention for a bid. I think the number of bids the league gets will show how the committee (and nation) truly views the new Big East.

[OTRMUSKIE]

The AAC is a good BBall conf. It will hurt a little when Ville leaves but it's a conf that UC can dominate forever. However football will dictate where UC goes from here. I still think they will get invited to the ACC which is great for football but will put UC in the middle of the pack for hoops like they were in the Big East on a yearly basis. They might have a year where they contend for a title but the AAC is a conf UC can win every year.

[paulxu]

Somehow the results of yesterday's BE games (or all the games) caused the biggest gain in chance for the tournament for Georgetown, and the biggest loss in possibility for X.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/trends/

Overall our chance is still higher though.

[XUFan09]

Somehow the results of yesterday's BE games (or all the games) caused the biggest gain in chance for the tournament for Georgetown, and the biggest loss in possibility for X.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/trends/

Overall our chance is still higher though.

Xavier actually had the 7th biggest loss. Providence was easily number one, with a 17.4% change. Ouch.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Seth Davis on X's tourney chances as of now:

"You'll hear this from me often over the next five-and-a-half weeks: Somehow, some way, there will be 36 at-large teams in the NCAA tournament. So not only would Xavier be in the field today, it would be in safely. For starters, the Musketeers are one of just two teams who have beaten Cincinnati, and they also own neutral court wins over three potential bubble boys in Georgetown, St. John's and Marquette.

Yes, this team has lost four of its last six games and three in a row, but aside from a loss at home to Seton Hall, the others were respectable road losses at Creighton, Providence and Villanova. Xavier's problem is that, while it is not a bad defensive team, its D is not disruptive enough to create scoring opportunities when it is suffering an off-shooting night. Considering that the team's starting "shooting" guard, junior Dee Davis, has not made a three-pointer in his last four games and has shot 7-for-21 in that stretch, it's not surprising the team is struggling.

It won't get any easier from here. Five of Xavier's final eight games are on the road, but the schedule also offers opportunistic home games against Providence, Creighton and Villanova. For the time being, I'm going to assume Xavier's tailspin is over and it will take care of business down the stretch."

I assume he meant "three home wins over..." not neutral.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140205/ncaa-tournament-sleepers-new-mexico-ohio-state-aaron-craft/#ixzz2sTeQoFYV

[The_Mack_Pack]

I think that win over Tennessee will continue to get better and better as well. Also, people just assume that since Xavier is losing, other teams aren't piling up bad losses as well. The bubble is horrible this year.. Saint Mary's is a bubble team right now and they have 0 top 50 wins and 5 sub-100 losses.. 5!! Xavier was actually on the bubble last season a few weeks before Selection Sunday and that team had no business being brought into the discussion all season. Xavier will make the tournament.

[Classof1985]

Seth Davis on X's tourney chances as of now:

" Xavier's problem is that, while it is not a bad defensive team, its D is not disruptive enough to create scoring opportunities when it is suffering an off-shooting night. Considering that the team's starting "shooting" guard, junior Dee Davis, has not made a three-pointer in his last four games and has shot 7-for-21 in that stretch, it's not surprising the team is struggling."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140205/ncaa-tournament-sleepers-new-mexico-ohio-state-aaron-craft/#ixzz2sTeQoFYV

These two sentences state Xavier's problems right now. Xavier is in a shooting slump at the moment. And to a certain extent, it is in a defensive slump as well.

During the losing streak, X is shooting 24% from three-point range. The opponents made 46% of shots overall and 38% from three-point range. And if you look at assists, you see something startling - Xavier's opponents had assists on 73% of their baskets. That means that the last pass led directly to a basket. That means the defense broke down enough for the opposition to get a wide-open look. That's a lot of defensive breakdowns.

Shooting slumps happen; presuming shots are being taken in the context of the offense, there is not much to do except keep shooting and go hard to the offensive glass. But defense is reliant on preparation, execution, and will. Defense should never take a night off. And that is what has heppened the last three games.

Xavier needs to get back to sound defense. If they don't the teams in this league are good enough to make you pay.

[XUFan09]

The defense actually hasn't been the same since the Marquette game. The offense was excellent, though, so it was partially covered up until the last three games.

[DoubleD86]

I like to use the Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) site when viewing since it compiles and averages a lot of bracketologists/bracketologies. Right now Xavier is a 10 seed in the bracket. Additionally, X is in the bracket in 65 of the 66 brackets submitted (the 1 being CityViewSportsCast.com which lists Xavier as the first team out).

Xavier is still pretty firmly in the bracket and has plenty of opportunities to solidify that position. If you want to just assume that won't happen and all is lost, be my guess, but I am willing to bet you also gave up after Evansville. That didn't work out so well so I will wait and see what happens. I think this team is plenty good enough to do what is needed to make the tournament.

[Classof1985]

The defense actually hasn't been the same since the Marquette game. The offense was excellent, though, so it was partially covered up until the last three games.

I think if the defense cannot/does not create easy baskets, then you are much more vulnerable to poor shooting nights. While X's defense may have been fundamentally sound, it hasn't really produced lots of easy baskets. That means they have to work on every possession, and a shooting slump means they score less often.

Defense is hard because you have to execute to the end of every possession. Failure to play hard for even a second can result in a wide open look for an easy basket. Unfortunately, Xavier doesn't have someone at the back to erase mistakes right now. X has been giving up way too many easy baskets/open shots during the last 6 games or so.

Mack needs to light a fire under the players. But at the same time, someone on the team needs to step forward and lead by example, this season could go south in a hurry.

[LA Muskie]

I think if the defense cannot/does not create easy baskets, then you are much more vulnerable to poor shooting nights. While X's defense may have been fundamentally sound, it hasn't really produced lots of easy baskets. That means they have to work on every possession, and a shooting slump means they score less often.

Defense is hard because you have to execute to the end of every possession. Failure to play hard for even a second can result in a wide open look for an easy basket. Unfortunately, Xavier doesn't have someone at the back to erase mistakes right now. X has been giving up way too many easy baskets/open shots during the last 6 games or so.

Mack needs to light a fire under the players. But at the same time, someone on the team needs to step forward and lead by example, this season could go south in a hurry.
Good points. Especially the highlighted portion. We play strong defense for 30 seconds on a lot of possessions, only to waste all the effort in the last 5 -- oftentimes with a bail-out foul (for a double whammy).

[throwbackmuskie]

I think we should get in. For me it all depends on the next game. If they come out and play with a purpose it should carry over into the rest of the season. However if they play with a lack of effort on D like the SH game, then it will be a painful end to the season. Everything is riding on the next game IMO. It will set the tone for the rest of the season.

[XUOHTX]

I hope this is the last season we ever see this thread title again. That is all.

[LA Muskie]

I think we would make it right now, moreso because the bubble is pretty weak than because we have done anything particular notable to set ourselves apart from the field. But so much can happen between now and March 16th that it's almost senseless to think about it right now.

[Backyard Champ]

I think we would make it right now, moreso because the bubble is pretty weak than because we have done anything particular notable to set ourselves apart from the field. But so much can happen between now and March 16th that it's almost senseless to think about it right now.

When is the last time the bubble wasn't weak? I think we will make the tournament and have the team to give anyone a scare and make a deep run. Or lose first round.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I just want to make the tournament this year. I can't stand to think I will be taking off two days to watch other teams play. Next year and every year after that I will expect X to be in the sweet 16 or better.

[profson]

I just want to make the tournament this year. I can't stand to think I will be taking off two days to watch other teams play. Next year and every year after that I will expect X to be in the sweet 16 or better.

And on what basis do you "expect" to be in the sweet 16 or better "every year" other than fan zeal? I wonder whether you know how many teams have been in the sweet 16 or better the last 5 years? Or the last 10 years?

[profson]

I think 20 wins gets us in, while 19 is iffy (perhaps depending on whether one of them is against Creighton or Villanova).

So how likely is 5 more wins. One should be DePaul, at home. That leaves 4 to go. I see two basic paths to 4 wins.

Path A: Win 2 of 3 at home against Providence, Creighton, Villanova and 2 of five away against Butler, Marquette, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall. I like the chances to win two on the road but not 2 at home. We should be narrowly favored against Providence but underdogs against the other two and I just don't like the chances against Villanova.l

Path B: Win 1 0f 3 at home and 3 of five at home. I like the chances at home, and I think winning 3 on the road is doable though difficult. This requires, in my opinion, beating Butler (I think we match up well) and splitting the other four.

The more I think about it, we don't get to 20 wins without beating Providence, Butler, Seton Hall.

What actually happens will probably bear no resemblance to the above.

[profson]

I think 20 wins gets us in, while 19 is iffy (perhaps depending on whether one of them is against Creighton or Villanova).

So how likely is 5 more wins. One should be DePaul, at home. That leaves 4 to go. I see two basic paths to 4 wins.

Path A: Win 2 of 3 at home against Providence, Creighton, Villanova and 2 of five away against Butler, Marquette, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall. I like the chances to win two on the road but not 2 at home. We should be narrowly favored against Providence but underdogs against the other two and I just don't like the chances against Villanova.

Path B: Win 1 of 3 at home and 3 of five away. I like the chances at home, and I think winning 3 on the road is doable though difficult. This requires, in my opinion, beating Butler (I think we match up well) and splitting the other four.

The more I think about it, we don't get to 20 wins without beating Providence, Butler, Seton Hall.

What actually happens will probably bear no resemblance to the above.

Fixed that

[XU 87]

Cool that you are still a Big East fan!

Brown-noser

[xeus]

Brown-noser

Um, I was mocking him.

[DoubleD86]

Remember on February 4th when we weren't going to win more than 1 game for the rest of the year? That was fun.

[UCGRAD4X]

Remember on February 4th when we weren't going to win more than 1 game for the rest of the year? That was fun.

…um…only one more at a time….yeah, that's it.