xubrew
01-16-2014, 12:17 PM
First, just some food for thought. I hope this makes sense.
There are 32 conferences, and 36 at-large bids. The first thing the committee does (this is actually done pretty much before they start meeting) is that they put 36 teams into the tournament. They take two votes. One involves voting for 36 teams that should be in the tournament no matter what, and the other is listing all the teams that they're wanting to consider, but aren't sure about. Teams that get 8 votes are put in the tournament. If only 31 teams get eight votes, then they keep voting until they end up with 36.
I'm already making this confusing, but basically they end up with two lists, or "boards." One is the tournament board, and one is the nomination (or under consideration) board. Every time one of the original 36 teams wins their conference tournament, they add an additional team from the nomination board. Teams that are on the nomination board are either going to end up being voted out (which takes eight votes) or voted in, which is done by having committee members individually rank the top eight. The reason this is important is because all first place finishers are automatically placed on the nomination board for consideration, and will stay there until they're voted off. If you think about it, this procedure gives a big advantage to first place finishers from weak leagues. For instance, Green Bay likely would not be able to get eight votes to be placed into the tournament, but it's also not likely that they would get eight votes to remove them from consideration either, and as long as they're on that board, they're basically just waiting their turn to get voted in. We often see first place teams from weak leagues end up in the dance by default because they're never removed. I think we saw it with Middle Tennessee last year, I think we saw it with Utah State multiple times, we saw it with UTEP a few years back, and I'm sure there are other examples. They didn't end up needing it, but when you look at how the seeding played out Bucknell and Belmont would have likely been safe last year as well.
I don't have an issue with that. In fact I actually like that because it gives some meaning to the regular season. It is something to be aware of, though. That's why I was so certain that Middle Tennessee was going to get in last year (for those that remember).
So, with that in mind, I think there are two teams that no one is really talking about that could land inside the bubble. One is Green Bay, and the other is Louisiana Tech. LA Tech just lost their best player until the conference tournament, but CUSA is so weak they should be able to manage it without him. If anything, if they get him back, the committee may forgive a loss or two in conference play.
If Ohio or Toledo can blow through the MAC (and by blow through it I mean pretty much run the table) they could land in the field as well. Toledo already has a damaging loss, and I think Ohio is out of strikes as well. Plus, that's a difficult league to run through.
I think North Dakota State is really good too, but they just won't have the profile to get in without the auto-bid even if they win out. They could end up with five 1000 pt scorers before the year is over. That's kinda crazy to think about, and I certainly wouldn't want to play a team like that in the round of 64. But, losing to IPFW is really really damaging.
I honestly don't know what the committee will do with Belmont if they blow through the OVC (they actually have a tough game tonight). They have notable wins at North Carolina and Middle Tennessee (who's good at home), but sucky sucky losses to offset that. Still, it's possible, but I think they'll have to run the table during the regular season in order for that to even be possible, and even then it wouldn't be a given.
So, at the end of the day, XU just needs to play their way into the top 36 so they'll be a first ballot team and it won't matter.
I really just started this as an excuse to talk about teams that I think are good, but that no one else is talking about. Hopefully there are some of you that find it more interesting than boring.
There are 32 conferences, and 36 at-large bids. The first thing the committee does (this is actually done pretty much before they start meeting) is that they put 36 teams into the tournament. They take two votes. One involves voting for 36 teams that should be in the tournament no matter what, and the other is listing all the teams that they're wanting to consider, but aren't sure about. Teams that get 8 votes are put in the tournament. If only 31 teams get eight votes, then they keep voting until they end up with 36.
I'm already making this confusing, but basically they end up with two lists, or "boards." One is the tournament board, and one is the nomination (or under consideration) board. Every time one of the original 36 teams wins their conference tournament, they add an additional team from the nomination board. Teams that are on the nomination board are either going to end up being voted out (which takes eight votes) or voted in, which is done by having committee members individually rank the top eight. The reason this is important is because all first place finishers are automatically placed on the nomination board for consideration, and will stay there until they're voted off. If you think about it, this procedure gives a big advantage to first place finishers from weak leagues. For instance, Green Bay likely would not be able to get eight votes to be placed into the tournament, but it's also not likely that they would get eight votes to remove them from consideration either, and as long as they're on that board, they're basically just waiting their turn to get voted in. We often see first place teams from weak leagues end up in the dance by default because they're never removed. I think we saw it with Middle Tennessee last year, I think we saw it with Utah State multiple times, we saw it with UTEP a few years back, and I'm sure there are other examples. They didn't end up needing it, but when you look at how the seeding played out Bucknell and Belmont would have likely been safe last year as well.
I don't have an issue with that. In fact I actually like that because it gives some meaning to the regular season. It is something to be aware of, though. That's why I was so certain that Middle Tennessee was going to get in last year (for those that remember).
So, with that in mind, I think there are two teams that no one is really talking about that could land inside the bubble. One is Green Bay, and the other is Louisiana Tech. LA Tech just lost their best player until the conference tournament, but CUSA is so weak they should be able to manage it without him. If anything, if they get him back, the committee may forgive a loss or two in conference play.
If Ohio or Toledo can blow through the MAC (and by blow through it I mean pretty much run the table) they could land in the field as well. Toledo already has a damaging loss, and I think Ohio is out of strikes as well. Plus, that's a difficult league to run through.
I think North Dakota State is really good too, but they just won't have the profile to get in without the auto-bid even if they win out. They could end up with five 1000 pt scorers before the year is over. That's kinda crazy to think about, and I certainly wouldn't want to play a team like that in the round of 64. But, losing to IPFW is really really damaging.
I honestly don't know what the committee will do with Belmont if they blow through the OVC (they actually have a tough game tonight). They have notable wins at North Carolina and Middle Tennessee (who's good at home), but sucky sucky losses to offset that. Still, it's possible, but I think they'll have to run the table during the regular season in order for that to even be possible, and even then it wouldn't be a given.
So, at the end of the day, XU just needs to play their way into the top 36 so they'll be a first ballot team and it won't matter.
I really just started this as an excuse to talk about teams that I think are good, but that no one else is talking about. Hopefully there are some of you that find it more interesting than boring.