Bracketology Watch

[XUOHTX]

The latest bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) has us as a last four in and as a 12 seed in a play-in game.

[ChicagoMuskie]

Not sure if this has been brought up yet, but I find it funny that Lunardi put Cincinnati ahead of us. I understand Cincinnati has only lost 2 games to our 3, but it would seem as though head-to-head match-ups would take precedence in this sort of situation.

[GoMuskies]

Not sure if this has been brought up yet, but I find it funny that Lunardi put Cincinnati ahead of us. I understand Cincinnati has only lost 2 games to our 3, but it would seem as though head-to-head match-ups would take precedence in this sort of situation.

He has Tennessee and USC behind us.

OK, looking again, I guess he actually has Tennessee virtually tied with us....which is okay since we split with them!

[ChicagoMuskie]

He has Tennessee and USC behind us.

OK, looking again, I guess he actually has Tennessee virtually tied with us....which is okay since we split with them!

This is true, but USC has a couple bad losses. Also, all of Xavier's losses thus far have come within a 3 day period.

[GoMuskies]

all of Xavier's losses thus far have come within a 3 day period.

I don't think you get any break for losing three in three days instead of three over a month.

[Fireball]

I'm kind of surprised that we're not higher than the last 4 in. Two top-50 wins with one on a neutral court, no bad losses, 11-3 record, two wins against teams who are listed in the field.

I would think that would be better than one of the last four teams in the tournament.

[94GRAD]

I don't think you get any break for losing three in three days instead of three over a month.

Do we get a break if we stay undefeated in the States?

[Masterofreality]

Not sure if this has been brought up yet, but I find it funny that Lunardi put Cincinnati ahead of us. I understand Cincinnati has only lost 2 games to our 3, but it would seem as though head-to-head match-ups would take precedence in this sort of situation.

ESPN AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC favoritism vs Xavier 17 point head to head win on a neutral court and Big East.

Makes all the sense in the world. :seestars:

[GoMuskies]

Do we get a break if we stay undefeated in the States?

If we can stay undefeated in the States I feel pretty good about our chances.

[ChicagoMuskie]

I don't think you get any break for losing three in three days instead of three over a month.

Actually that's not entirely true. The selection committee looks at where and when your losses came in the season and if they were consecutive wins/losses.

[xubrew]

I don't think he really puts that much thought into it prior to the start of conference tournaments. I also don't know if this is where he thinks teams currently stand, or where he thinks teams will ultimately end up.

He has Ohio State as a #1 seed. A strong case can be made that Ohio State will end up as a #1 seed. As of now, though, they have no wins against solid tournament teams, and their best win was at Purdue. All they've really demonstrated is that they can beat NIT teams. That's hardly enough for a #1 seed, so I guess he's just guessing that's where they'll end up. He could be doing the same with UC.

[Xavier]

He does it as if the season ended today. I like looking at Bracketology, even this early, but I know its really not important, especially this early.

[XUOHTX]

He does it as if the season ended today. I like looking at Bracketology, even this early, but I know its really not important, especially this early.

I like to use at a good gauge of how Xavier is perceived and how the season is trending.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Those three losses should have an asterisk next to it. 3 games in 3 days could be tough for any team. It just happens it was Xavier. But the way they bounced back should really look good in the committees eyes come selection time. That of course is if Xavier continues to win and I don't see why they won't. This could be a very special year and with the exception of Nova I don't see where X will lose more than once to the upper half of the league which makes me think that 12-6 is a very reasonable goal for this team. Plus one win in NYC makes them 23-10 in the #3 league. I honestly think that is the worst case scenario.

[paulxu]

So our last 2 coaches have #1 seeds. Nice. (I guess)

If sucks beats Memphis today I guess that helps our RPI.

[paulxu]

OK, belay that last.
How is it that UC upsets ranked Memphis, we beat Butler, and our RPI drops to 31?

I just don't understand all that crap I guess. So, we'll just have to keep winning.

Edit: Nevermind; our win caught up to the listing, and we're back to #21.

[BMoreX]

OK, belay that last.
How is it that UC upsets ranked Memphis, we beat Butler, and our RPI drops to 31?

I just don't understand all that crap I guess. So, we'll just have to keep winning.

Where are you seeing that Paul? http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html has us at 21.

[paulxu]

Sorry, I edited at the same time you posted.

[XUFan09]

UC jumped to 29 from 41 after that road win. It would be awesome to see them in the RPI top 25, as that win would look really good.

[Xavier]

We are in a win win with UC here on out. They win it helps Xavier. They lose I'm happy with it. In this situation I want UC to end up being first four out of the tournament.

[XUOHTX]

Well, in the the latest Bracketology (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)1/9/14 we have moved up to an 8 seed playing VCU in a whales vagina.

I like the way we are trending. Lundardi has 5 A10 teams in and only 4 BE teams. That would be unexpected.

Also Mods you may want to just make this a general bracketology watch thread.

[GoMuskies]

Dayton playing the play-in game on its home floor is unfair!

[The_Mack_Pack]

A lot of writers seem to think that the A-10 will get more bids than the Big East this year.. They can't seem to remember that a couple of tourney hopefuls shit the bed each and every year in A-10 play.

[HuskyMuskie]

Am I the only one not understanding Cincy at a #6 seed? ........??????????

[drudy23]

The A10 always has 5 teams in the tourney in January...problem is, the tourney is in March.

[bearcatalyst]

Am I the only one not understanding Cincy at a #6 seed? ........??????????

Top 25 in Kenpom. Top 25 in RPI. Only 2 losses--both to teams solidly in the tournament and away from home. 4 Top 50 RPI wins (6 in the top 100) and 2 of those were away from home. You guys spanked us up and down the court. If we played again, it may even happen again. That said, the cats have had a great season thus far. Maybe they will fade. I think a 6 seed at this point in time is very fair, though.

[nuts4xu]

If we played again, it may even happen again. That said, the cats have had a great season thus far. Maybe they will fade. I think a 6 seed at this point in time is very fair, though.

Agreed. UC hasn't played a great non con schedule, but it isn't the worst either. It will be interesting to see more of UC on the road, as they haven't had a ton of games away from home yet.

[XUFan09]

Agreed. UC hasn't played a great non con schedule, but it isn't the worst either. It will be interesting to see more of UC on the road, as they haven't had a ton of games away from home yet.

And now that I think about it, neither has Xavier. Having your only road game be against an okay Alabama team and then heading to Creighton is the scheduling equivalent of whiplash. Ugh, that's gonna be tough.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[BBC 08]

Thankfully Gibbs is out and McDermot is playing injured.

[Musketeer_15]

Dayton playing the play-in game on its home floor is unfair!

Isn't there a rule that says the host team isn't allowed to play on their home court during an NCAA tourney game? Isn't that part of the reason why small schools host all of the tournament sites?

[X-band '01]

Dayton is allowed to play in the play-in games should the need arise. There is no other site designated for such games.

[vee4xu]

Ok, so here's something to chew on. Today, Palm has X as a 7 seed up on spot, Dayton as a 6 seed down one spot and Clifton as a 4 seed standing pat. Hmmmm.

[mid major]

No way in hell the A10 gets 5 teams in. It's the mantra for the A10. Come Jan there are 5 teams in but by March, which is what really matters, it all evens out and there are 3 in. Regardless, the Farewell Archie Tour is well underway.

[paulxu]

One of you guys explain this to me please.

Here's LiveRPI: http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Here's the official NCAA RPI: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

The teams are the same as you start from the top, all the way down until you get to us and UC. Then things go askew, and finally get back on track a little further down.

Why are we 19 on one, and 25 on the other? (Thanks in advance)

[94GRAD]

One of you guys explain this to me please.

Here's LiveRPI: http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Here's the official NCAA RPI: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

The teams are the same as you start from the top, all the way down until you get to us and UC. Then things go askew, and finally get back on track a little further down.

Why are we 19 on one, and 25 on the other? (Thanks in advance)


As MOR would say, ESPN bias.

[waggy]

Probably an error in some other teams record. It's not all that uncommon to get errors with so many games. A couple years ago the LiveRPI site had X's record wrong.

[Retire33]

As MOR would say, ESPN bias.

Could it possibly be NCAA not recognizing Abilene Christian win where RPI forecast is?

[xsteve1]

Palm's latest Bracketology. X up to a 7. 4 BE teams with Providence in the first 4 out. UC a 4 and UDump dropping like a brick to 10.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[XU-XHI]

No way in hell the A10 gets 5 teams in. It's the mantra for the A10. Come Jan there are 5 teams in but by March, which is what really matters, it all evens out and there are 3 in. Regardless, the Farewell Archie Tour is well underway.

Even if the a10 were to get 5 teams in and the Big E gets 4, the Big East gets a higher percentage of its teams in the dance. I'll take the better odds of dancin' each year with the Big E. With that said, I seriously doubt the a10 is getting 5 in.

[xubrew]

One of you guys explain this to me please.

Here's LiveRPI: http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Here's the official NCAA RPI: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

The teams are the same as you start from the top, all the way down until you get to us and UC. Then things go askew, and finally get back on track a little further down.

Why are we 19 on one, and 25 on the other? (Thanks in advance)

Most likely it's discrepancies over the designation of home, neutral and road games.

It changes every year. Up until last year, the team who was in charge of game management was considered the home team by the NCAA. The actual site of the game had nothing to do with it. It could be that one is counting the XU vs UC as a home game for Xavier, and the other is saying it's a neutral site. It could also be that one is counting Abeline Christian, and the other isn't.

At the end of the day, it won't end up making any difference at all because the RPI isn't used as a power ranking. But, if you're wanting to know why they're different, that's the best guess that I have.

I have no idea what the rule is this year. Like I said, it seems to change every year. Once, they changed it in the middle of the year.

[XUFan09]

Palm's latest Bracketology. X up to a 7. 4 BE teams with Providence in the first 4 out. UC a 4 and UDump dropping like a brick to 10.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Is the bubble that weak that Providence is mentioned. They aren't bad, but I would think there would be better candidates.

-Projected non-conference SOS outside the top 150.
-RPI Top 25 Record: 0-3
-One top 50 win
- One bad loss
-Efficiency rankings in the bottom quartile of the top 100

They're a couple surprise wins away from having a good resume, but not right now.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[gladdenguy]

Palm's latest Bracketology has Xavier a 5 seed and sUCks a 4 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[GoMuskies]

Path to the title game: Toledo, UMess, Arizona, Villanova, Wichita State

I'd have to move if Xavier played the Shockers in the Final Four.

Syracuse/Creighton would be an epic Sweet Sixteen game.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Syracuse/Creighton would be an epic Sweet Sixteen game.

I'm hoping that matchup actually happens. Creighton could destroy that zone with how far out they can shoot.

[gladdenguy]

Here is NBC's bracket. Still has Xavier as an 8 seed even with 9 top 100 wins. Makes no sense.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/21/bracketology-strong-profile-pushes-kansas-to-top-line/

[The_Mack_Pack]

Here is NBC's bracket. Still has Xavier as an 8 seed even with 9 top 100 wins. Makes no sense.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/21/bracketology-strong-profile-pushes-kansas-to-top-line/

I would have them as a solid 7 right now, honestly. An 8 is a little low but it doesn't surprise me to see that. X needs some more road wins and more top 50 wins. It would help a lot if Tennessee could go on a winning streak or if Wake could somehow sneak into the top 50. Just gotta keep winning at this point and force people to take a good hard look at Xavier's underrated resume.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Palm's latest Bracketology has Xavier a 5 seed and sUCks a 4 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Don't ask why, but I feel strongly that Xavier and Sean Miller will meet in the post-season this year. Better the S16 than an 8/9 game vs the 1 in round two.

With such a daunting schedule in front of Xavier, I don't like their chances to end up at a 5 seed -- but it looks good on January 21st.

[Burrcats]

What has Xavier done to deserve a 5 seed? They have 2 wins over teams currently in the field (Cincinnati and Tennessee), yet they also lost to Tennessee on a neutral floor. That is more like a 8-9-10 seed. Not sure where this 5 seed talk came from.

[Burrcats]

Here is NBC's bracket. Still has Xavier as an 8 seed even with 9 top 100 wins. Makes no sense.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/21/bracketology-strong-profile-pushes-kansas-to-top-line/

That is a fair seed, haven't beaten enough tournament teams.

[Xavier]

What has Xavier done to deserve a 5 seed? They have 2 wins over teams currently in the field (Cincinnati and Tennessee), yet they also lost to Tennessee on a neutral floor. That is more like a 8-9-10 seed. Not sure where this 5 seed talk came from.

The SOS and RPI with that record is better than an 8/9 seed. One of three teams to have 9 top 100 wins. I could see 6/7 though.

[Milhouse]

That is a fair seed, haven't beaten enough tournament teams.

By that logic hasn't UC only beat 2 tournament caliber teams?

[Xavier]

By that logic hasn't UC only beat 2 tournament caliber teams?

Good point, I will be interested to see his response.

[bobbiemcgee]

Hopefully, there won't be one.

[xudash]

All is well again with Xavier basketball. We're back to talking about Tournament seeding in January, and with a powerful recruiting class on its way in. Love Xavier. Love Xavier basketball.

[Burrcats]

By that logic hasn't UC only beat 2 tournament caliber teams?

I was spot on: http://bracketmatrix.com/

8 Xavier Big East 7.92 50

[ammtd34]

I was spot on: http://bracketmatrix.com/

8 Xavier Big East 7.92 50

How is that remotely relevant to the question?

[throwbackmuskie]

What has sUCk done to be higher than a 8-9 seed?

I think a 5 seed is reasonable at this point. I don't see us getting anything higher unless we just explode from here on out, win all the home games, and steal a couple big road games, nova, Gtown..

[xumuskies08]

I think X deserves a 6ish seed at this moment. Aside from a horrible 3 day stretch they've looked pretty outstanding against one of the tougher schedules in the country.

IMO a team who is 21 in RPI and 28 in KenPom deserves better than an 8 seed.

[Patrick Bateman]

So far Cincy has beaten two NCAA teams. One on the road and one at neutral site, that boosts those wins. UC will also have chances to get more quality wins as their schedule is backloaded.

2-0 vs. top 25 teams. That is 2 more than TOSU has, one more than KY. Not many elite teams this year.

NC State and SMU may be fringe NCAA teams.

[X-man]

Good point, I will be interested to see his response.

Me too. But of course, there won't be one because there is no rational way to conclude that uc is deserving of a higher seed based upon bc's premise.

[LA Muskie]

I think X deserves a 6ish seed at this moment. Aside from a horrible 3 day stretch they've looked pretty outstanding against one of the tougher schedules in the country.

IMO a team who is 21 in RPI and 28 in KenPom deserves better than an 8 seed.

Based on KenPom alone we would get the last of the 7 seeds so 8 isn't that far off. I don't think the RPI is all that meaningful. The selection committee only uses it for a single purpose (categorizing teams) and frankly even for that there are much better options.

I could see us stealing a 4 seed but I think it would require a Top 2 finish. Finishing in 3rd should get us a 5 or 6 depending on how the w/l's bear out.

[paulxu]

UC's forecasted SOS is 84; playing 8 teams with RPI's over 200.

Conversely, XU's forecasted SOS is 20; playing 2 teams with RPI's over 200.

If I was a bearkitten fan, I'd be downright embarrassed.

[throwbackmuskie]

Currently sUCk has beaten one team that is currently ranked: Memphis who should not be ranked.

[DC Muskie]

For the record "throwbackmuskie" is a great handle. Yet another example of how terrible I was 15 some odd years ago coming up with my name.

[SixFig]

If I was a bearkitten fan, I'd be downright depressed, unemployed, and sitting in my mother's basement eating cupcakes.

Fixed

[Patrick Bateman]

UC's forecasted SOS is 84; playing 8 teams with RPI's over 200.

Conversely, XU's forecasted SOS is 20; playing 2 teams with RPI's over 200.

If I was a bearkitten fan, I'd be downright embarrassed.

I think it is more of a sliding scale.

X has a much higher SOS and will get a bump come seeding time, UC will get taken down a notch due to their weak SOS

[Xavier]

I would be embarrassed if my team had never made it more than half-way through the NCAA tourney (like Xavier).

Would you be embarrassed if, at one point in the second half, your team was up 17 and ended up losing by double digits?

[xumuskies08]

I would be embarrassed if my team had never made it more than half-way through the NCAA tourney (like Xavier).

Obvious troll is obvious.

[XUPhilly04]

I would be embarrassed if my team had never made it more than half-way through the NCAA tourney (like Xavier).

I would be embarrassed with myself if I had to troll all day on college basketball website in order to get the attention I not getting elsewhere and fill the need to improve my own self-esteem by being an a-hole to others. I think I would rather drink bleach than that. Wouldn't you?

[Strange Brew]

I would be embarrassed if my team had never made it more than half-way through the NCAA tourney (like Xavier).

I'd be embarrassed if my highly vaunted "twin towers" team was beaten in said tourney by a team like Xavier. Haha, you stink like fear Hoya.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I love it!!!! Are we finally starting some hatred with our Big East foes? I was getting sick of rooting for all the teams in our league.

[throwbackmuskie]

Oh no the messege board grammar police! Typos happen, get over it. And you are right, I forgot about the snoozefest that was the Pitt game.

[throwbackmuskie]

For the record "throwbackmuskie" is a great handle. Yet another example of how terrible I was 15 some odd years ago coming up with my name.

Thanks!

[paulxu]

I make a comment about UC's unimpressive track record, and somebody named "hoyaparanoia" sends me a private message calling me a turd?

Perhaps the uninformed poster is really a sucks fan. That would make a lot of sense.

[Milhouse]

Georgetown's season is over so he needs to come over here and attack a tournament team.

Sigh I guess we'll have to be the flagship of this new league as well.

[XUOHTX]

Is this guy going to hijack every thread? I'm all for trash taking but there are specific places and threads for that.

[outsideobserver11]

I make a comment about UC's unimpressive track record, and somebody named "hoyaparanoia" sends me a private message calling me a turd?

Perhaps the uninformed poster is really a sucks fan. That would make a lot of sense.

As a UC guy I only have 2 things to say.

1. I hope he really said "you're a turd." for some reason that makes me laugh it's such a bad insult. Maybe it's because I didn't get much sleep last night, but I'm finding the idea of calling somebody a turd very funny this morning.

2. UC people need to relax and stop telling Xavier people they still have "little brother" syndrome when we are just as bad coming over here and acting all arrogant like we are the better people and above all of this. Xavier was better than us on the one night it mattered, so we need to take it and they deserve to dish it out for the next year.

[GetUp5]

I would be embarrassed if my team had never made it more than half-way through the NCAA tourney (like Xavier).

Technically, Xavier made it to the 4th 'round' out of 6 'rounds'.

64, 32, 16, 8, 4, 2

Do you see how that's more than half hoya man? Would you like me to explain that to you a little more?

Anyways, big guy, I'd be pretty embarrassed if my team had only won TWO tournament games since 2007 all while being a 2, 3, 6, 3 and 2 seeds.

[gladdenguy]

Anyways, big guy, I'd be pretty embarrassed if my team had only won TWO tournament games since 2007 all while being a 2, 3, 6, 3 and 2 seeds.

That is one of THE most embarrassing tourney stats I've ever seen. Thanks for that. Public reps.

[bleedXblue]

One of the things thats really interesting about the "new" Big East is the fact that we now really get a chance to prove what we've been saying for the last 10 years.....that the old Big East was overrated. Im NOT saying it wasnt a good conference.....just not nearly as good as all of the hype. Early results are indicating that we can compete and win. My theory along with a lot of others will take some time to prove......but Im pretty confident in the results we'll see.

[GoMuskies]

How are we going to "prove" that with UConn, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt no longer in the league?

[muskienick]

I don't think anybody deserves any specific seed at this stage of the season. Look how OSU has tumbled! Marquette was crowned pre-season King of the New Big East and look at them now. UNC is a Jeckel and Hyde if there ever was one.

Although I admit that the daily or weekly drivel by Lunardi and company are fun to read (mostly for their lunacy), the fact that he and his bracket-creating buddies have to edit them massively in each edition tells how truly inaccurate they are at any time. I'll wait for Selection Sunday and build and copy my family bracket to see who can guess the best. Also, I'll wait until SS before I complain (or compliment) the Selection Committee on the job they did in seeding teams and punishing or rewarding Conferences that day.

[Fireball]

I think that a 7-8 seed feels about right for X's seed right now. They only have one top 50 win, despite the nice record and good strength of schedule. If Tennessee and Wake Forest can do well enough to turn those into quality wins, that will help us a bit.

Sent from my DROID4 using Tapatalk

[LA Muskie]

One of the things thats really interesting about the "new" Big East is the fact that we now really get a chance to prove what we've been saying for the last 10 years.....that the old Big East was overrated. Im NOT saying it wasnt a good conference.....just not nearly as good as all of the hype. Early results are indicating that we can compete and win. My theory along with a lot of others will take some time to prove......but Im pretty confident in the results we'll see.

Well, except that the 2 best programs (one is leading the ACC now) and 3 other top tier programs are gone. But sure...apples to apples...

[LA Muskie]

How are we going to "prove" that with UConn, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt no longer in the league?
Exactly (and you left out ND).

[GoMuskies]

Exactly (and you left out ND).

No I didn't.

[muskienick]

Exactly (and you left out ND).
And Hugsvillle university.

[xufan2434]

I think that a 7-8 seed feels about right for X's seed right now. They only have one top 50 win, despite the nice record and good strength of schedule. If Tennessee and Wake Forest can do well enough to turn those into quality wins, that will help us a bit.

Sent from my DROID4 using Tapatalk

Agreed, as of now X's best win is against UC. A win over UK for Tennessee and Wake to get some wins against a weak ACC will really help the resume. Other than that, they need to keep beating the teams they should in conference play and hopefully sneak a win against Nova and Creighton.

I think a 6 seed is pretty reasonable and one I'm hopeful for come SS. 4 or 5 seed would be nice, but I think we can beat any 3 seed in the country, and give a nice run against a 2 seed. Whereas having to play Arizona or Syracuse in the sweet 16, yikes.

[Burrcats]

Well, except that the 2 best programs (one is leading the ACC now) and 3 other top tier programs are gone. But sure...apples to apples...

There is a chance that the Old Big East could win 3 conferences this year. Syracuse or Pittsburgh in the ACC, Villanova in the new Big East and Cincinnati or Louisville in the American.

Outside of Marquette and Georgetown (who are both having down years), the Catholic schools in the Big East were largely disappointing. That league was dominated by Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville...

[GoMuskies]

There is a chance that the Old Big East could win 3 conferences this year. Syracuse or Pittsburgh in the ACC, Villanova in the new Big East and Cincinnati or Louisville in the American.

WV hasn't been mathmatically eliminated in the Big 12. :laugh:

[paulxu]

Technically, Xavier made it to the 4th 'round' out of 6 'rounds'.

64, 32, 16, 8, 4, 2

Do you see how that's more than half hoya man? Would you like me to explain that to you a little more?

Anyways, big guy, I'd be pretty embarrassed if my team had only won TWO tournament games since 2007 all while being a 2, 3, 6, 3 and 2 seeds.

This is why Warren Buffet can offer a billion dollars for anyone to correctly fill out a total bracket sheet.
On any given year, Georgetown or UC will be sure to fall off the ledge way before they should.

[LA Muskie]

There is a chance that the Old Big East could win 3 conferences this year. Syracuse or Pittsburgh in the ACC, Villanova in the new Big East and Cincinnati or Louisville in the American.

Outside of Marquette and Georgetown (who are both having down years), the Catholic schools in the Big East were largely disappointing. That league was dominated by Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville...

That conference was historically dominated by Syracuse and UConn. But Louisville, Pitt, and Notre Dame also had their share of success.

[LA Muskie]

No I didn't.

I'm no fan either but over the last decade they had been a top tier Big East program.

[LA Muskie]

And Hugsvillle university.

That's right. Forgot about WVU.

[bleedXblue]

Well, except that the 2 best programs (one is leading the ACC now) and 3 other top tier programs are gone. But sure...apples to apples...

Sure I get that. But Villanova, Marquette and G'Town competed at a very high level for several years while in the "old" conference. I realize the proving isnt going to cover all programs from the old conference........

[GoMuskies]

This is why Warren Buffet can offer a billion dollars for anyone to correctly fill out a total bracket sheet.
On any given year, Georgetown or UC will be sure to fall off the ledge way before they should.

Speaking of, I wonder if Warren ever goes to Creighton games. Wichita's Warren Buffett (Charles Koch) has his name on Wichta State's arena, but he rarely goes to the games. Maybe once a year or so.

[paulxu]

Speaking of, I wonder if Warren ever goes to Creighton games. Wichita's Warren Buffett (Charles Koch) has his name on Wichta State's arena, but he rarely goes to the games. Maybe once a year or so.

Well that's interesting. Didn't know the Koch brothers were involved with Wichita State.
Surprised he didn't have the name changed to Kochers.

[GoMuskies]

Well that's interesting. Didn't know the Koch brothers were involved with Wichita State.
Surprised he didn't have the name changed to Kochers.

I assume it's just Charles. David lives in New York.

[throwbackmuskie]

Man it must really sUCk being a bearkitten fan right now.
The best program in your new conference is leaving after this year.
They worked so hard to get out of CUSA, yet they are back there again.
X stopped a mudhole in you, just like your CUSA days, well and Old BE days too.
Your coach is better suited for a Lucky Charms box rather than the sidelines.

Seriously, what about sUCk excites their fan base? The new Nippert boxes? Most of them will never get to use? Well maybe in a couple years after they don't sell at full price so you can get them for a reduced rate. The Clifton eye sore that is the bubble?

Come on what excites you guys?

[XUFan09]

There is a chance that the Old Big East could win 3 conferences this year. Syracuse or Pittsburgh in the ACC, Villanova in the new Big East and Cincinnati or Louisville in the American.

Outside of Marquette and Georgetown (who are both having down years), the Catholic schools in the Big East were largely disappointing. That league was dominated by Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville...

I don't think I would call Villanova disappointing. But you're right about the bottom four.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[X Factor]

That conference was historically dominated by Syracuse and UConn. But Louisville, Pitt, and Notre Dame also had their share of success.

What success did Notre Dame have?

[outsideobserver11]

Man it must really sUCk being a bearkitten fan right now.
The best program in your new conference is leaving after this year. T
hey worked so hard to get out of CUSA, yet they are back there again.
X stopped a mudhole in you, just like your CUSA days, well and Old BE days too.
Your coach is better suited for a Lucky Charms box rather than the sidelines.

Seriously, what about sUCk excites their fan base? The new Nippert boxes? Most of them will never get to use? Well maybe in a couple years after they don't sell at full price so you can get them for a reduced rate. The Clifton eye sore that is the bubble?

Come what excites you guys?

Not to call just you out or make you mad or anything, but this is the kind of comments that the UC people on here were referring to when they said Xavier people are "obsessed" with UC. From a Xavier perspective the answer to each of those questions should be...who cares? UC will keep doing what they are doing in the AAC and Xavier will keep doing what they are doing in the Big East. The game was played, it wasn't close, now time to move on to the rest of the season.

[GoMuskies]

UC people on here

Just to repeat....

[Blue Blobs Bro]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Much better.

[throwbackmuskie]

Just to repeat....

Exactly. If you sUCk fans would stay over on the Clifton boards we wouldn't comment about your kittens. Your fans want to come on here and make comments, expect us to comment back.

[XUOHTX]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Much better.

I like where this is going

[throwbackmuskie]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Much better.

If Creighton keeps playing like they are they may get a #2. I think X finished with a 5-8 seed.

[nuts4xu]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Much better.

I would take a sweet 16 matchup against Sean Miller. That would be fun.

[LA Muskie]

What success did Notre Dame have?
Over the last decade they had a .6076 winning percentage, made the NCAA tourney 6 out of 10 years (including the last 4) and finished in the Top 5 of the conference 5 times including the last 3. Especially for the last 3-4 years they had been a top tier Big East program. Would it have lasted? Who knows...

[Xavier]

They worked so hard to get out of CUSA, yet they are back there again.


Back there again? With Louisville leaving and the new schools joining next year- UC would kill to be in the old C-USA again. AAC isn't nearly as good as CUSA was.

[MHettel]

Over the last decade they had a .6076 winning percentage, made the NCAA tourney 6 out of 10 years (including the last 4) and finished in the Top 5 of the conference 5 times including the last 3. Especially for the last 3-4 years they had been a top tier Big East program. Would it have lasted? Who knows...

If the premise is that the Old Big East was very tough, then I'm not too interested in an analysis of ND that goes back 10 years, or that considers how they did in their non-con.

From 2005-06 through 2012-13, the Big East consisted of the same 16 teams except for 2012-13 when WVU left. Against BE competition, ND had an aggregate record of 87-53 in conference play. That is good for a 62.1% winning percentage, which would rank them 6th among 16 BE teams over that period (WVU record thru 2011-2012).

Over this period, 6 different teams won a share of the Big East Regular Season Championship. Notre Dame was not one of them.
Over this period, 6 different teams won the Big East Tournament Championship. Notre Dame was not one of them.

Notre Dame was invited to 6 NCAA tournaments over this period, their best seeding being a #2 and their average seed was a 5.5. They went 2-6 in those NCAA appearances.

Taking the aggregate BE records a bit further, you can rank the teams based on W/L % and group them into 3 tiers and further aggregate their W-L records. The Top 5 teams had a win % of 65.9%. The middle 6 had a win percentage of 54.1%, and the lower 5 came in at 29.3%.

It's pretty obvious to me that the top and middle of the BE essentially fed on the lower third. Any type of "normal distribution" would have the middle group right around 50%, and the high group and lower group would be equidistant from the middle, but in opposite directions...

Now, take a look at the actual tiers based on win percentage (in order):

Top Tier: Louisville, Syracuse (T2), Pit (T2), Marquette (T4), Georgetown (T4).

Middle Tier: Notre Dame, West Virgina, Villanova (T8), UConn (T8), Cincy, St. Johns

Bottom Tier: Seton Hall, Providence, South Fla, Rutgers, DePaul

I dont see anything really odd about the top teir, but among that middle tier, I would definitely perceive WVU, Villanova, and UConn to have been "more" successful in the Big East than ND was over that period.

What it comes down to is that ND was a consistently high average performer in the best conference ever, but not much of the reason why it was the best confernce ever. They kind of remind me of the guy that was the 3rd starter on the Arizona Diamondbacks team that won the words series in 2001, with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson as the #1 & #2 starters. Remember that guy? yeah, neither do I.

[bleedXblue]

The fact that the sole existence of the Xavier program is to beat Cincinnati. Xavier can have all the success it wants but in the end, it will always be that cute little story out of Norwood.

This cute little program has had the upper hand in this rivalry for the last 25 years. Over that time period we've established a well known national brand, been to dance an impressive amount of times with some great success and now sit in a league thats generates a huge amount of cash for the program with a national TV contract. Keep thinking whatever it is that you want. The reality is something far different.........

[throwbackmuskie]

The fact that the sole existence of the Xavier program is to beat Cincinnati. Xavier can have all the success it wants but in the end, it will always be that cute little story out of Norwood.

Couple quick questions. When is the last time your pussycats won a conference title?

When is the last time uc had a higher attendance ave than Xavier? Pretty sure x has surpassed the Clifton pussycats

[ThrowDownDBrown]

The fact that the sole existence of the Xavier program is to beat Cincinnati. Xavier can have all the success it wants but in the end, it will always be that cute little story out of Norwood.

The only thing UC is better at then XU is the ability to not fill seats despite a fanbase that is more then ten times as large. Every other factor that goes into a college basketball program though is better at "that cute little story out of Norwood." Better facilities, better conference, better coaches, better players, better recruits, better budgets, better fanbase, ect, ect. But hey you guys were really good in the 60's, so you've got that going for you. It's obviously really helping Mick bring in all kinds of great talent.....o wait that's us with the top 10 recruiting class.

[LA Muskie]

I dont see anything really odd about the top teir, but among that middle tier, I would definitely perceive WVU, Villanova, and UConn to have been "more" successful in the Big East than ND was over that period.

What it comes down to is that ND was a consistently high average performer in the best conference ever, but not much of the reason why it was the best confernce ever. They kind of remind me of the guy that was the 3rd starter on the Arizona Diamondbacks team that won the words series in 2001, with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson as the #1 & #2 starters. Remember that guy? yeah, neither do I.
I think this is probably about as apt an analogy as one could state. Well said. The only things I would add are (i) I would probably put ND in the Top Tier given the deviation between the two tiers; and (ii) winning percentage figure was for in-conference only (to your first point).

[jdm2000]

I don't even know if its worth pointing out that X is not in Norwood--and for that matter, UC is in Corryville or CUF, not Clifton.

[UCGRAD4X]

I don't even know if its worth pointing out that X is not in Norwood--and for that matter, UC is in Corryville or CUF, not Clifton.

Let us know when you decide.

[X-band '01]

I don't even know if its worth pointing out that X is not in Norwood--and for that matter, UC is in Corryville or CUF, not Clifton.

Isn't it Dayton fans that perpetuate that myth?

[DC Muskie]

That cute little story in Norwood flies private jets to watch recruits, something that the UC coach whines about not having.

[GoMuskies]

Isn't it Dayton fans that perpetuate that myth?

Is Norwood really worse than the alternatives? What city is Xavier actually located in? I always thought it was basically at the intersection of Norwood, Evanston and Avondale. Sort of 0 for 3.

[xudash]

Is Norwood really worse than the alternatives? What city is Xavier actually located in? I always thought it was basically at the intersection of Norwood, Evanston and Avondale. Sort of 0 for 3.

Victory Parkway is in Cincinnati, OH. Period. End of story. The vast majority of campus is in Cincinnati, OH. Some Cryers like to make themselves feel better about having "Dayton" in their University's name by throwing out the Norwood drivel.

The last time I checked their board - I actually should go over there now, as I imagine the VCU loss has them close to meltdown mode - they were complaining about Dayton's location as possibly holding them back from getting better recruits.

What's really funny is that between the Rookwood Commons and University Station and I imagine some other developmental stuff going on there, Norwood isn't even as bad as it used to be.

Poor UD:

http://giphy.com/gifs/bDWVjClPLRvTa

[GoMuskies]

New Bracketology today. The Big East is up to 4 solid teams in, Xavier is an 8, and fully 50% of the #1 seeds hail from the state of Kansas.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[bourbonman]

...and fully 50% of the #1 seeds hail from the state of Kansas.

50% of the #2 seeds are from Michigan, of the #4 seeds from Kentucky, of the #8 seeds from Ohio.

[X-man]

Can anyone understand why Pitt is a 6-seed in this latest round....other than the fact that it is ESPN's AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC?

[bleedXblue]

Can anyone understand why Pitt is a 6-seed in this latest round....other than the fact that it is ESPN's AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC?

Pitt and Jamie Dixon will be exposed over the next 3-4 weeks

[Juice]

Can anyone understand why Pitt is a 6-seed in this latest round....other than the fact that it is ESPN's AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC?

I don't think it's just the ESPN/AAC aspect. They have the "Pitt" name which has been overrated recently and their KenPom numbers are still pretty good. Regardless, they haven't beat a decent team all year.

[dnnrobert]

Can anyone understand why Pitt is a 6-seed in this latest round....other than the fact that it is ESPN's AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC?

Pitt is in the ACC, not the AAC.

They have a bunch of wins against RPI 51-100, but no signature wins. Sitting at #18 in the RPI. My guess is Lunardi is banking on them picking up a signature win or two. It seems to me like his bracketology is more predictive than based on results. The Jerry Palm bracket seems to be more results-based. The fact that Ohio State is still a #8 seed in Lunardi's bracket is mind-boggling.

[The_Mack_Pack]

I saw an interesting tweet the other day stating that if you give Pitt and OSUs resumes to Duquesne and Ohio are they being put in mock brackets? Between Pitt and OSU there is only 1 top 50 win and it's North Dakota State..

[THRILLHOUSE]

Pitt is in the ACC, not the AAC.

They have a bunch of wins against RPI 51-100, but no signature wins. Sitting at #18 in the RPI. My guess is Lunardi is banking on them picking up a signature win or two. It seems to me like his bracketology is more predictive than based on results. The Jerry Palm bracket seems to be more results-based. The fact that Ohio State is still a #8 seed in Lunardi's bracket is mind-boggling.

I think Lunardi has stated that his brackets are based on if the season ended today, not what he thinks will end up happening in March. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong about that though.

[XUFan09]

I think Lunardi has stated that his brackets are based on if the season ended today, not what he thinks will end up happening in March. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong about that though.

You're correct, but I think DNN Robert is on the right track. Lunardi says his brackets aren't predictive, but that doesn't seem to be true when you actually look at them.

[StanleyOwnsYou]

Jerry Palm's latest Bracketology, updated 1/31 has us as #7 Seed playing #10 Colorado in Orlando, FL. The winner would all but likely advance and get to play Florida. We have some good Karma in Orlando from the Run and would take this over many of the other sites.

A few other seed notes:
#3 for UC playing in San Antonio
#1 for Wichita State.. If we get an 8/9 I would love this match up
#3 for Creighton and Nova
#10 for Providence playing #7 St. Louis, who is under seeded in my mind.

I always find it interesting to try and see where we would be playing based off of seeds in terms of traveling to the game. It's pretty tough to do this early but gets easier as the month of February winds down and you get into March.

[drudy23]

What are the chances Creighton and Wichita State end up in the same bracket? I'm guessing 100%...can't have the little guys taking a Final Four spot from the big boys.

[GoMuskies]

I think it's much more likely that Wichita State and KU end up in the same bracket (if one of them plays their way down to a #2 instead of a #1).

[dnnrobert]

I think it's much more likely that Wichita State and KU end up in the same bracket (if one of them plays their way down to a #2 instead of a #1).

I would love to see Wichita State knock off Kansas. I can't stand Bill Self. Great coach, but he rubs me as a jerk.

[XUFan09]

What are the chances Creighton and Wichita State end up in the same bracket? I'm guessing 100%...can't have the little guys taking a Final Four spot from the big boys.

Just like mid-majors often face each other in the first round. You'll have something like eight teams from mid-major conferences in the tournament, but six of them will have to play each other.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[Xavier]

What are the chances Creighton and Wichita State end up in the same bracket? I'm guessing 100%...can't have the little guys taking a Final Four spot from the big boys.

Well, I think having two top little guys in one bracket only gives it a greater chance one of them takes a spot from the big boys.

[XUFan09]

Well, I think having two top little guys in one bracket only gives it a greater chance one of them takes a spot from the big boys.

But seriously lessens the possibility of two spots being taken.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[gladdenguy]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier with a down arrow at a 9 seed. Providence win would be huge Saturday. Also, taking either @Butler or @Marquette obviously big as well. Can't lose both those games.

[XUFan09]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier with a down arrow at a 9 seed. Providence win would be huge Saturday. Also, taking either @Butler or @Marquette obviously big as well. Can't lose both those games.

Have to beat Providence at home. I could concede losing to Marquette at their place, but Xavier cannot lose at Hinkle. They already have two bad losses; they don't need another one.

[Chalmers0]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Xavier with a down arrow at a 9 seed. Providence win would be huge Saturday. Also, taking either @Butler or @Marquette obviously big as well. Can't lose both those games.

The down arrow only means that we have moved down a seed since the previous bracket, doesn't indicate that we are continuing to fall or anything.

Looking around at various bracket's people here need to really take a step back off the ledge. Most place still have us in the 9-10 range which is still safe, for now. Obviously our schedule isn't favorable down the stretch but a win Saturday keeps us more than on pace to make the dance.

[X-band '01]

Have to beat Providence at home. I could concede losing to Marquette at their place, but Xavier cannot lose at Hinkle. They already have two bad losses; they don't need another one.

Xavier could get away with winning at Marquette and losing at Butler IF they're able to get another road win at either Georgetown/St. John's OR beat both Villanova and Creighton at home.

Point being, the Seton Hall loss killed whatever margin of error Xavier had going into Part II of Big East play. They've got to make it up somewhere on the road. Providence was already a must win game; Xavier cannot afford to be swept by anybody not named Villanova or Creighton at this point.

[XUFan09]

Xavier could get away with winning at Marquette and losing at Butler IF they're able to get another road win at either Georgetown/St. John's OR beat both Villanova and Creighton at home.

Point being, the Seton Hall loss killed whatever margin of error Xavier had going into Part II of Big East play. They've got to make it up somewhere on the road. Providence was already a must win game; Xavier cannot afford to be swept by anybody not named Villanova or Creighton at this point.

I don't think the Seton Hall loss killed the margin of error but it seriously reduced it, as shown by your (correct) point that they can still lose to Butler but then they need to succeed in multiple games where they aren't favored. The St. John's and Georgetown games are coin flips.

Xavier's schedule is weird. They faced their top 3 opponents (and DePaul) on the road in the first half, and the middle-of-the-road opponents at home. Now they have a moderately easy road schedule against opponents 3 through 8 while the home court is going to be really tough to defend. That's why the home loss particularly hurts. If Seton Hall had been a road loss, it would have been much easier to swallow. In fact, why wasn't that a road game? Travel-wise, it made more sense. Seton Hall had two home games prior to that and their next game wasn't for 6 days. Xavier had a week off prior to that and two days later had to be in Philly, not even a two-hour bus ride from Jersey.

[GoMuskies]

Down to a 10 now. On the plus side, the Big East is within a whisker of being a 5 bid league at this point. There's an excellent chance the Big East has 8 combined NCAA + NIT teams (not that NIT matters).

[Burrcats]

American Conference has 5 teams ranked in the top 25, the Big East conference has 2.

[PM Thor]

Aaaaand half the AAAAAAAAC is below the 150 RPI watermark. What a conference!

(The Big East doesn't have anyone below 119)

[xavierj]

That is certainly one way of looking at it. In other news, the American has 50% of it's teams ranked in the AP Poll. There are more American Conference teams in the AP Poll than Big East, PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC teams respectively.

I don't know the answer but how many top 25 teams has the AAC beat in the non confrence and how many teams did they beat that will make the tourney?

[xumuskies08]

That is certainly one way of looking at it. In other news, the American has 50% of it's teams ranked in the AP Poll. There are more American Conference teams in the AP Poll than Big East, PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC teams respectively.

In other news, the AAC is worse than all of the conferences you listed by any and every statistical based metric available. Top 25 polls are neat and al, but they are far from the most accurate way of measuring which teams are the best in the country.

[Cheesehead]

In other news, the AAC is worse than all of the conferences you listed by any and every statistical based metric available. Top 25 polls are neat and al, but they are far from the most accurate way of measuring which teams are the best in the country.

Is it me or are the 5 ranked AAC teams basically interchangeable? None are overly impressive to me. Now if they make some noise in the tournament then I will be impressed.

[Burrcats]

I don't know the answer but how many top 25 teams has the AAC beat in the non confrence and how many teams did they beat that will make the tourney?

Teams: (ESPN Bracketology Seed)
Cincinnati: North Carolina Central (15 seed), Pittsburgh (6 seed)
Connecticut: Florida (1 seed), Harvard (12 seed)
Memphis: Oklahoma State (8 seed), Gonzaga (7 seed), LSU (11 seed)
Louisville: Southern Miss (11 seed)
Temple: NONE
South Florida: NONE
Central Florida: NONE
Southern Methodist: NONE
Rutgers: NONE
Houston: NONE
Total: 8

Big East:
Villanova: Kansas (2 seed), Iowa (5 seed), Delaware (13 seed)
Creighton: Arizona State (10 seed), California (10 seed)
Georgetown: Michigan State (3 seed), Kansas State (9 seed), VCU (8 seed)
Xavier: Cincinnati (4 seed), Tennessee(11 seed)
Providence: NONE
St. Johns: NONE
Seton Hall: NONE
Marquette: George Washington (9 seed)
DePaul: NONE
Butler: NONE
Total: 11

[Juice]

Is it me or are the 5 ranked AAC teams basically interchangeable? None are overly impressive to me. Now if they make some noise in the tournament then I will be impressed.

They are simply beating each other and people see it and say, "Wow! What a great win!"

[XU 87]

Teams: (ESPN Bracketology Seed)
Cincinnati: North Carolina Central (15 seed), Pittsburgh (6 seed)
Connecticut: Florida (1 seed), Harvard (12 seed)
Memphis: Oklahoma State (8 seed), Gonzaga (7 seed), LSU (11 seed)
Louisville: Southern Miss (11 seed)
Temple: NONE
South Florida: NONE
Central Florida: NONE
Southern Methodist: NONE
Rutgers: NONE
Houston: NONE
Total: 8

Big East:
Villanova: Kansas (2 seed), Iowa (5 seed), Delaware (13 seed)
Creighton: Arizona State (10 seed), California (10 seed)
Georgetown: Michigan State (3 seed), Kansas State (9 seed), VCU (8 seed)
Xavier: Cincinnati (4 seed), Tennessee(11 seed)
Providence: NONE
St. Johns: NONE
Seton Hall: NONE
Marquette: George Washington (9 seed)
DePaul: NONE
Butler: NONE
Total: 11

Eastside Jay, did you really just spend a couple of hours looking up every team's schedule? That kind of weird.

[PM Thor]

So....there are 3 AAAAC teams with multiple wins over "potential" NCAA teams, and the Big East has 4.

You just proved my point for me Burr. AAAAAC is top heavy, with a horrendous back end of a conference. As conferences go, from top to bottom, the Big East is by far, way above the AAAAAAC. It's not even close. Now I know the RPI isn't the end all, be all of indicators, but goodness man, Big East conference RPI, #4. AAAAAC? #8.

Look at that conference. No. Take a step back and look at it. It's turible.

[Juice]

So....there are 3 AAAAC teams with multiple wins over "potential" NCAA teams, and the Big East has 4.

You just proved my point for me Burr. AAAAAC is top heavy, with a horrendous back end of a conference. As conferences go, from top to bottom, the Big East is by far, way above the AAAAAAC. It's not even close. Now I know the RPI isn't the end all, be all of indicators, but goodness man, Big East conference RPI, #4. AAAAAC? #8.

Look at that conference. No. Take a step back and look at it. It's turible.

Sagarin has the BE at #4 and the AAC at #8 as well.

[GoMuskies]

Sagarin has the BE at #4 and the AAC at #8 as well.

Colley has BE #4 and AAC #7

[GoMuskies]

Little known fact: the third place team in the Big East whipped the #1 team in the AAC on a neutral floor. Not even a contest.

[XU 87]

I am not Eastside J. I know of his screen name from Banter but I don't know them. Oh, and that took less than 15 minutes.

I doubt it took you 15 minutes. Even if it did, it was kind of strange thing to do. You're a strange dude. Exhibit "A" of your strangeness is that you spend all of your waking hours on a Xavier message board.

[Xavier]

Little known fact: the third place team in the Big East whipped the #1 team in the AAC on a neutral floor. Not even a contest.

Just shows the difficulty of the Big East. I don't think anyone can argue an AAC team will go further in the tournament than a Big East team.

[Cheesehead]

I have never and I mean never been on a UC message board because I don't care about UC basketball and what their fans have to say.

[vee4xu]

I have never and I mean never been on a UC message board because I don't care about UC basketball and what their fans have to say.

Ditto here on the UC boards. I am also proud to say that I am a UD board virgin.

[XU 87]

Look, you've shown over and over what a strange and odd dude you are. But now you're really showing what a weirdo you are.

I suggest it's time for you to stop posting here and to go back to the UC board. What little self-esteem you have left will be lost if you hang out here much longer.

[Backyard Champ]

I like burr over here. I think it's great to see him try to explain how UC and the AAC is so good, while ignoring what a beat down they received from a 3rd place at best big east team. I mean, it was a blowout in the first half, without Xavier's best player playing most of the half. I can't imagine how bad it would have been if Xavier's NBA prospect actually played the full game.

[LadyMuskie]

All that's left is for Burr to start talking about Mariah Carey again and this thread will officially become the weirdest ever.

[throwbackmuskie]

I find it funny that the AAAACCC teams are now trying to defend this "great conference" when their best overall school, Louisville is leaving and the 2nd tier schools, UCONN and UC would give both of their testicles to get out of the AAAACCC.

[GoMuskies]

I find it funny that the AAAACCC teams are now trying to defend this "great conference" when their best overall school, Louisville is leaving and the 2nd tier schools, UCONN and UC would give both of their testicles to get out of the AAAACCC.

This is true, but they want to get out mostly for football reasons.

[throwbackmuskie]

This is true, but they want to get out mostly for football reasons.

Oh I get that.

[QueensbridgeMF]

Does the AAC get an auto bid? Is this the first year it existed?

[GoMuskies]

Does the AAC get an auto bid? Is this the first year it existed?

It gets an auto-bid. It is NOT the first year it has existed, since it is actually the old Big East with a name change. The more intersting question was whether the NEW Big East would get an auto-bid, and the answer is yes.

[xubrew]

It gets an auto-bid. It is NOT the first year it has existed, since it is actually the old Big East with a name change. The more intersting question was whether the NEW Big East would get an auto-bid, and the answer is yes.

If you have seven programs that have been full div1 members for eight years, you get an automatic bid. The old rule about being a new conference is no longer in place.

Winning by double digits on the road is always good. Our profile is now better than it was three hours ago.

[Muskie]

Marquette is apparently a bubble team: (link (http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/12/bubble-banter-oklahoma-state-tennessee-ole-miss-all-lose-key-games/))

Marquette (RPI: 70, KenPom: 52) only has one really bad loss — at Butler — but with just one top 50 win now that Providence and Georgetown are both outside the top 50, the Golden Eagles, at 14-9, have a lot of work to do. They probably need to beat either Creighton or Villanova to have a real chance.

[GoMuskies]

If they win Saturday, they're tied for third in the league. I definitely think they qualify as a bubble squad.

[BMoreX]

All of a sudden, I'm not as worried about the Big East getting a small amount of bids.

Right now, Villanova, Creighton, and Xavier are in. Georgetown and Providence I've seen in or on the bubble. Marquette and St. John's are trending up.

[paulxu]

If they win Saturday, they're tied for third in the league. I definitely think they qualify as a bubble squad.

I assume that's some sort of reverse-jinx deal you are trying out there.

[X-band '01]

All of a sudden, I'm not as worried about the Big East getting a small amount of bids.

Right now, Villanova, Creighton, and Xavier are in. Georgetown and Providence I've seen in or on the bubble. Marquette and St. John's are trending up.

In the words of Snipe, a classic zero-sum game. Sure, somebody's got to lose those games, but at the same time somebody has to win those games as well.

Marquette is going to bring a machete to a knife fight on Saturday - Xavier has to be ready.

[Milhouse]

3 is for sure. 4 would be a stretch....depending on how the BE tournament shakes out. Would've been a different story had everyone just taken care of OOC there could be 5 in.

[bleedXblue]

I see 4 as a virtual lock. Someone is going to emerge from the group of G'Town, Marquette or St Johns.

[XUFan09]

I see 4 as a virtual lock. Someone is going to emerge from the group of G'Town, Marquette or St Johns.

Yup. 5 is the real stretch. It would take two of those teams really emerging and the one more in need doing really well in the conference tournament.

[LA Muskie]

I agree 4 is a lock. But I think 5 is quite possible.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Now in as a 10 seed and still not the last four in. Love me some 10 seed. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[THRILLHOUSE]

Palm has X as a 9 seed: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[DoubleD86]

Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) has Xavier included in 78 of 78 submitted brackets and averages out to a 10 seed (9.79 average seed). Above that, only 2 of 78 brackets have Xavier in the 12 seed line that would indicate the last four in. Vast majority of them have X as a 9 or 10 seed, and like OTR mentioned I would much rather prefer a 10 than a 9.

[BMoreX]

Shannon Russell ‏@slrussell 10m

Talked to Jerry Palm: He feels "pretty good" about #Xavier being in the Big Dance as long as they take care of business down stretch.

[GoMuskies]

Shannon Russell ‏@slrussell 10m

Talked to Jerry Palm: He feels "pretty good" about #Xavier being in the Big Dance as long as they take care of business down stretch.

No wonder Jerry is so highly paid to do this stuff. Great analysis.

[Juice]

Shannon Russell ‏@slrussell 10m

Talked to Jerry Palm: He feels "pretty good" about #Xavier being in the Big Dance as long as they take care of business down stretch.

But MuskiePimp says X has no shot. What does Palm know?

[BandAid]

Anyone have insight into the importance of the last ten games played?

I remember this being a metric used in the past, but don't recall if that was a television talking head push or an actual measuring stick.

[XUFan09]

Anyone have insight into the importance of the last ten games played?

I remember this being a metric used in the past, but don't recall if that was a television talking head push or an actual measuring stick.

Theoretically, it is no longer officially a metric. Conference record is, though, and that's somewhat related. Also, practically, recent performance still would influence people, because they're human.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

But MuskiePimp says X has no shot. What does Palm know?

He knows that about 30-40 other teams haven't separated themselves above Xavier at this point.

[bjf123]

Shannon Russell ‏@slrussell 10m

Talked to Jerry Palm: He feels "pretty good" about #Xavier being in the Big Dance as long as they take care of business down stretch.

Well, duh! Of course, the big question is how many wins qualify as taking care of business down the stretch.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bourbonman]

Well, duh! Of course, the big question is how many wins qualify as taking care of business down the stretch.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This

[MuskiePimp23]

But MuskiePimp says X has no shot. What does Palm know?

Never said we have no shot. I sure hope Jerry Palm is right. I just don't feel confident that we can win down the stretch on the road, or beating Villanova and Creighton at home. Creighton and Villanova both make 3 pt shots at a high rate and that has been one of our worst things all year is guarding the 3 pt line. Not sure why people think magically the last week of the season, we will figure it out or they will all of a sudden stop missing. I sure hope we win both of those games, I just don't see it happening. I hope the team proves me wrong, because I won't believe it till I see it. I fear we will not be dancing.

[X-band '01]

At the moment, 5 Big East teams are in with St. John's also knocking on the door (with PC and Georgetown both in the play-in games).

Providence has a huge game at home tonight against Villanova; if they lose this one I think they're going to be on the outside looking in before the Big East tournament.

St. John's still has upcoming games against DePaul and Butler to pad the W column. Their toughest game remaining is at Villanova (with Xavier and @ Marquette also remaining).

Georgetown has a tough schedule remaining - Creighton and Xavier at home and Seton Hall/Marquette/Villanova on the road. Of the BE bubble teams, Georgetown has been most vulnerable at home. They are also in the 7-hole in the standings, which means they would get a 1st-round game in the Big East tournament and either a game against Villanova or Creighton in the quarters.

Marquette is also making a last-second push, although the body of their work is predominantly at home. They still have Creighton, Georgetown and St. John's at home, along with road games at DePaul, Villanova and Providence. If they go 5-1 in that stretch, they have a shot at getting in (especially if they can pull off season sweeps against Georgetown and Providence).

[OH.X.MI]

Shannon Russell ‏@slrussell 10m

Talked to Jerry Palm: He feels "pretty good" about #Xavier being in the Big Dance as long as they take care of business down stretch.

Just read the article Shannon wrote about her "talk" with Palm. I don't mind Shannon usually, but this quote just about did it for me.

"Simply put, the better Xavier plays through the regular season’s end, the better its chances are of returning to the NCAA tournament."

Really? Playing well helps a team succeed? Well color me shocked! SMH.

[sgarcia]

Never said we have no shot. I sure hope Jerry Palm is right. I just don't feel confident that we can win down the stretch on the road, or beating Villanova and Creighton at home. Creighton and Villanova both make 3 pt shots at a high rate and that has been one of our worst things all year is guarding the 3 pt line. Not sure why people think magically the last week of the season, we will figure it out or they will all of a sudden stop missing. I sure hope we win both of those games, I just don't see it happening. I hope the team proves me wrong, because I won't believe it till I see it. I fear we will not be dancing.

I'm pretty sure our 3pt shooting percentage as a team is about the same as our opponents 3pt shooting percentage. Difference is our opponents take more and therefore have made a lot more than us.

[LA Muskie]

We moved up 6 spots (from 43 to 37 ) in Jay Bilas' top 68. That tells me we aren't nearly the suckiest of the bubble even when we suck as bad as we sucked on Saturday against Marquette. So we've got that going for us.

[XUFan09]

Every year, fans of college basketball teams all over the country fail to appreciate how much the bubble sucks. Richmond and St. Joseph's are projected in the tournament on Bracket Matrix. Let that sink in.

[drudy23]

We moved up 6 spots (from 43 to 37 ) in Jay Bilas' top 68. That tells me we aren't nearly the suckiest of the bubble even when we suck as bad as we sucked on Saturday against Marquette. So we've got that going for us.

Um...based on what?

FYI...Jay Bilas isn't on the Selection Committee, so his opinion means as much as yours or mine.

[Xville]

It really doesn't matter where we are in the bubble world as of right now. We are in a precarious position based on who is left on the schedule and where the games are being played. Outside of Depaul, is there another game you feel comfortable about winning? Call me Debbie Downer or what have you but going into Seton Hall, St. Johns and Georgetown with this team doesn't exactly inspire confidence. We lost to Seton Hall at home...how could you feel good about beating either two Top 15 teams Villanova or Creighton? I think we are looking strongly at a 1-5 record to cap off the year unless something changes with this team the next few weeks.

[casualfan]

We moved up 6 spots (from 43 to 37 ) in Jay Bilas' top 68. That tells me we aren't nearly the suckiest of the bubble even when we suck as bad as we sucked on Saturday against Marquette. So we've got that going for us.

Remember there are only 36 at large teams....

[LA Muskie]

FYI...Jay Bilas isn't on the Selection Committee, so his opinion means as much as yours or mine.
Ya don't say...

[LA Muskie]

Remember there are only 36 at large teams....

True. But a good number of those will also earn AQ bids.

[casualfan]

True. But a good number of those will also earn AQ bids.

And there will be some bid stealers as well.

[casualfan]

Also last year the team who finished the season ranked 37th in the BPI was St. Mary's.

They got put in one of the play-in games which means they were one of the last 4 in....

[XUFan09]

It really doesn't matter where we are in the bubble world as of right now. We are in a precarious position based on who is left on the schedule and where the games are being played. Outside of Depaul, is there another game you feel comfortable about winning? Call me Debbie Downer or what have you but going into Seton Hall, St. Johns and Georgetown with this team doesn't exactly inspire confidence. We lost to Seton Hall at home...how could you feel good about beating either two Top 15 teams Villanova or Creighton? I think we are looking strongly at a 1-5 record to cap off the year unless something changes with this team the next few weeks.

So just because we're not favored (or it's a coin flip) in five straight games, we're looking strongly at losing all five of them? That's highly improbable. I'll flip it around: If Xavier was a moderate favorite in five straight games, would you expect them to win all five or would you expect them to drop one or two?

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[xubrew]

I cannot recall a single case, not one, where a team made the NCAA Tournament after having games cancelled because metal was falling from the ceiling.

I think Indiana is toast.

[UCGRAD4X]

I cannot recall a single case, not one, where a team made the NCAA Tournament after having games cancelled because metal was falling from the ceiling.

I think Indiana is toast.

Or does that just prove the point of this whole thread…. they sky is indeed falling!

[XUOHTX]

Well with the win over Creighton, Lundardi now has us up to a 9 seed playing 8 seed Memphis.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Also, disturbingly, the BE only has 3 teams in at this point. No bueno.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Well with the win over Creighton, Lundardi now has us up to a 9 seed playing 8 seed Memphis.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Also, disturbingly, the BE only has 3 teams in at this point. No bueno.

The BE will get at least 4. The winner of the 4/5 matchup in the BE tourney will probably get a bid if it's between St Johns and Providence.

[bourbonman]

Well with the win over Creighton, Lundardi now has us up to a 9 seed playing 8 seed Memphis.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Also, disturbingly, the BE only has 3 teams in at this point. No bueno.

HOG HEAVEN for me if this is true. Playing in San Diego! I'm there for work! WOO HOO! (Yes, it's all about me!)

[vee4xu]

HOG HEAVEN for me if this is true. Playing in San Diego! I'm there for work! WOO HOO! (Yes, it's all about me!)

That would be really tough on your NCAA Tourney traveling partner. And from all accounts that would be a shame since from what I hear he's a pretty good guy. :-)

[Michigan Muskie]

Well with the win over Creighton, Lundardi now has us up to a 9 seed playing 8 seed Memphis.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Also, disturbingly, the BE only has 3 teams in at this point. No bueno.

Cool. The Buick could race right past the Lexus to reach the Sweet 16.

[MaurerHigh]

Cool. The Buick could race right past the Lexus to reach the Sweet 16.

That potential matchup just gives me nightmares about the 2007 tournament...

[BTR MUSKIE]

Not sure if this has been brought up yet, but I find it funny that Lunardi put Cincinnati ahead of us. I understand Cincinnati has only lost 2 games to our 3, but it would seem as though head-to-head match-ups would take precedence in this sort of situation.
It's the body of work not one game that they're going to look at.I don't think anyone would argue with UC being a higher seed than us. Now if we run the table here and win the Big East tournament,it might be different.

[The_Mack_Pack]

It's the body of work not one game that they're going to look at.I don't think anyone would argue with UC being a higher seed than us. Now if we run the table here and win the Big East tournament,it might be different.

He posted that back in January when both teams were comparable record wise. There's no doubt now that UC will be a higher seed than us unless they absolutely fall apart and Xavier wins out.

[XUOHTX]

Well "Always Learning" could get his wish from his other thread (http://www.xavierhoops.com/showthread.php?27548-I-sure-hope-not).

USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/02/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/5944741/) has us as n 11 seed playing 6 seed Ohio State.

[XUOWNSUC]

An 11 seed is B.S. especially after the week Xavier had last week.

[Mrs. Garrett]

An 11 seed is B.S. especially after the week Xavier had last week.

They have Dayton in. That alone should say to take this one with a grain of salt.

[bobbiemcgee]

Last team to enter their conference tournament undefeated? St. Joe's. 2004. Beware Shockers.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Well "Always Learning" could get his wish from his other thread (http://www.xavierhoops.com/showthread.php?27548-I-sure-hope-not).

USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/02/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/5944741/) has us as n 11 seed playing 6 seed Ohio State.

An 11 seed is too low but I like the OSU matchup. Would hate to see Iowa State though.

[bleedXblue]

20 wins and a tourney birth are all I asked for at the beginning of the year.....I'll take any seed and like it at this point.

[OH.X.MI]

An 11 seed is too low but I like the OSU matchup. Would hate to see Iowa State though.

You never know! The mighty Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks could take down the Cyclones! (No factual support for that statement, I just like Lumberjacks as a team name)

[OTRMUSKIE]

Well ESPN was a breath of fresh air. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[xubrew]

You never know! The mighty Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks could take down the Cyclones! (No factual support for that statement, I just like Lumberjacks as a team name)

SFA probably isn't as good as some teams that will get a #15 seed, but they'll still probably end up getting a #13 or #12 seed if they win the Southland Tournament, which they may not.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Palm dropped X back down to an 11 seed after last nights loss: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[casualfan]

It scares me that we're in a spot where a few bid stealers could be the difference between us making it or not.

Hopefully we can win Thursday and make it a non-issue.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X just needs one more win period to be a lock. So most likely will need to beat St. John's in the BET

[gladdenguy]

It comes down to a game at MSG on the road to beat a team fighting for their lives for a THIRD time this season. Definitely don't see that happening.

[ammtd34]

Wait, we already lost on Thursday?

Honestly, I like our chances Thursday more than needing to beat someone (especially St. John's) at MSG.

[beatuc]

X just needs one more win period to be a lock. So most likely will need to beat St. John's in the BET

Why would you think that? One more win and they're probably in the tournament, but far from a lock. A win over Villanova will definitely help a lot, but after the Creighton win Bracket Matrix only had Xavier as an 11 seed. I would trust those compiled group of bracketologists over what one person says. Joe Lunardi isn't even a top 30 ranked bracketologists compared to the ranking system used.

[XU 87]

Wait, we already lost on Thursday?



In light of the Stainbrook situation, Mack has conceded the game. The French flag is now hanging in Cintas.

[ammtd34]

Why would you think that? One more win and they're probably in the tournament, but far from a lock. A win over Villanova will definitely help a lot, but after the Creighton win Bracket Matrix only had Xavier as an 11 seed. I would trust those compiled group of bracketologists over what one person says. Joe Lunardi isn't even a top 30 ranked bracketologists compared to the ranking system used.

If we win Thursday, it isn't even a question. 2 top 15 wins in the last 3 games of the season? Fuhgeddaboudit

[casualfan]

USA Today has us one of the last 5 in. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/02/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/5944741/)

Another thing I like about that link is that they list the one bid conferences and their projected winners. We need to really hope schools like Wichita State win their conference tourney. As I mentioned in a post earlier our fate may end up resting in the hands up bid stealers.

[XUFan09]

Well ESPN was a breath of fresh air. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

I'd agree with that if it weren't for Stainbrook. The big loss yesterday wasn't the game, which wasn't a must-win (and honestly, since it's a road game, it doesn't really count as a bad loss). It was him potentially not being able to play that really hurts Xavier, as the Committee could take that into account.


Why would you think that? One more win and they're probably in the tournament, but far from a lock. A win over Villanova will definitely help a lot, but after the Creighton win Bracket Matrix only had Xavier as an 11 seed. I would trust those compiled group of bracketologists over what one person says. Joe Lunardi isn't even a top 30 ranked bracketologists compared to the ranking system used.

A top 15 win (even at home) would seal Xavier's tournament bid without question in normal circumstances. Doing that after you just lost your second-best player (whether it's for the season or just for a bit) would clinch a tournament berth all the more.

[casualfan]

(and honestly, since it's a road game, it doesn't really count as a bad loss).


Yes it does.

[xufan2434]

Why would you think that? One more win and they're probably in the tournament, but far from a lock. A win over Villanova will definitely help a lot, but after the Creighton win Bracket Matrix only had Xavier as an 11 seed. I would trust those compiled group of bracketologists over what one person says. Joe Lunardi isn't even a top 30 ranked bracketologists compared to the ranking system used.

Where are you getting the information that Joe Lunardi isn't good?

[XUFan09]

Yes it does.

No, it doesn't. The Committee weights teams for where the game is played. On the flip side, when Seton Hall beat Xavier at home, that was an absolutely abysmal loss, easily worse than the USC loss.

This is also why @St. John's is easily a better win than Tennessee, Providence, and Georgetown, even though they all are projected to have better RPIs and Marquette is right behind the Red Storm. Those wins occurring at home lessens their weight. The St. John's win and the Creighton win are actually in an virtual tie because of the difference in venue balancing out the difference in the quality of the opponent.

Actually, even more jarring than those facts, Alabama (ALABAMA!!!) is the team's fourth best win, because it was on the road. Actually, a win @Seton Hall would have been in a virtual tie with the win @Alabama for fourth best.

[XUFan09]

Where are you getting the information that Joe Lunardi isn't good?

Bracket Matrix does a scoring system for all bracketologists, both professional and amateur. For the last five-year period, Lunardi ranks a little below the average, as does Jerry Palm. Patrick Stevens and Jeff Borzello were actually the best professional bracketologists, and the Bracket Project (the composite of all of these) actually ranks fairly highly.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[casualfan]

No, it doesn't. The Committee weights teams for where the game is played. On the flip side, when Seton Hall beat Xavier at home, that was an absolutely abysmal loss, easily worse than the USC loss.

This is also why @St. John's is easily a better win than Tennessee, Providence, and Georgetown, even though they all are projected to have better RPIs and Marquette is right behind the Red Storm. Those wins occurring at home lessens their weight. The St. John's win and the Creighton win are actually in an virtual tie because of the difference in venue balancing out the difference in the quality of the opponent.

Actually, even more jarring than those facts, Alabama (ALABAMA!!!) is the team's fourth best win, because it was on the road. Actually, a win @Seton Hall would have been in a virtual tie with the win @Alabama for fourth best.

Sure the committe weights for where the game is played. That doesn't preclude it from being looked at as a bad loss. It just means it isn't as bad of a loss as if it were to have happened on a neutral court or at home (where we also lost to Seton Hall).

[XUFan09]

Sure the committe weights for where the game is played. That doesn't preclude it from being looked at as a bad loss. It just means it isn't as bad of a loss as if it were to have happened on a neutral court or at home (where we also lost to Seton Hall).

The weight that the Committee gives to the venue is so strong that I was actually surprised when I found out. That weight for it being a road game moves the loss from "bad loss" to "Gee, you should have won that game." Not good for the resume, but not technically a bad loss. It's more in the range of "frowned upon." That's also why I said that the home loss was much worse than the neutral court loss to USC, despite USC being projected to finish 40 spots behind Seton Hall in the RPI. A 40-spot difference, and yet the difference between those losses is not even close because of the venue.

[casualfan]

The weight that the Committee gives to the venue is so strong that I was actually surprised when I found out. That weight for it being a road game moves the loss from "bad loss" to "Gee, you should have won that game." Not good for the resume, but not technically a bad loss. It's more in the range of "frowned upon." That's also why I said that the home loss was much worse than the neutral court loss to USC, despite USC being projected to finish 40 spots behind Seton Hall in the RPI. A 40-spot difference, and yet the difference between those losses is not even close because of the venue.

Got a link for that weighting system they apparently use?

[XUFan09]

Got a link for that weighting system they apparently use?

Not linkable and not really shareable. If you don't want to trust me on this, that's fine. I don't know why I would make this stuff up though.

[casualfan]

Not linkable and not really shareable. If you don't want to trust me on this, that's fine. I don't know why I would make this stuff up though.

Oh, ok. Yeah, I'll just trust you haha.

[ammtd34]

Honestly, if there was anyone to believe on something like that, it would be 09.

[XUFan09]

Honestly, if there was anyone to believe on something like that, it would be 09.

I'm glad I earned that reputation!

[THRILLHOUSE]

Lunardi's latest has X back down to an 11, playing Ohio St. in San Antonio. He still has Dayton in the play in round.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[xubrew]

A few tidbits about the selection committee, just to give you an idea.

For starters, all committees pretty much work the same for all the team sports. There are some differences, but it doesn't matter if it's div1 men's basketball, or div3 women's volleyball, the procedure is pretty much the same.

There are ten of them. They each have three primary conferences (some have four) and seven secondary conferences. They are responsible for educating the rest of the committee on their conferences.

There are weekly teleconferences that begin before the season even starts.

There are daily lists of games that they compile from their conferences that they feel are important. This starts the first day of the season.

And, on top of all that, these are people that work in college athletics every day of their lives, and have for several years.

Because this process starts before the season really even starts, teams who schedule hard and schedule away from home make good first impressions. The committee consists largely of athletic directors and conference commissioners who used to be athletic directors. They're going to look at how a team schedules. They really can't help it because they spend so much time with it themselves.

They simply are not going to look at things as superficially as many bracketology experts do (IE, top 50 wins). Think about that. Top FIFTY!!! There is a huge gap between #1 and #50. That's the difference between a #1 seed, and a team that's outside the bubble. So they aren't going to treat all of that the same. I like what Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm and some others do. I think it's interesting to look at. But, you will never find a bracketologist that was ever actually on the committee. You know why?? They'd be the first to tell you that it is a qualitative process, not a quantitative process, and you can't just categorically predict who will and will not get in.

Sometimes when teams go to places that are outside the top 50, or even outside the top 100, and win there, they get credit for it. Eastern Michigan is nowhere near the NCAA Tournament, but they're 10-3 at home. UMass went there and won. A bracketologist wouldn't count that as a meaningful win, but the selection committee probably would. Why?? Because the person in charge of the MAC would point out how tough Eastern Michigan is at home. I've said this in some other threads, but if you look at some of the selections and seedings in recent years, they are CLEARLY rewarding teams that go on the road and win, even if they're winning against teams that are nowhere near the tournament. That's why I think there are some teams, Xavier in particular, that did themselves no favors by scheduling just one true road game OOC, and who struggled in the conference road games and other neutral floor games that they did play.

As far as the process goes, they actually start by basically selecting 36 teams that will get in no matter what. They actually take a vote where every committee member lists up to 36 teams that belong in no matter what, and every team that gets 8 out of 10 votes is in the field.

All the teams that did not get 8 votes are placed onto what's called the "nomination board." All first place conference finishers are also on this board, so a team like North Dakota State has somewhat of a circumstantial advantage because they are guaranteed consideration for a bid if they end up falling in the conference tournament. So is a team like NC Central, but they have no shot, so they might as well not even be up there. The committee can also nominate other teams for this secondary consideration board.

The next thing they do is get that total up to 36. So, if 30 teams got 8 votes, they'll take 6 more teams from the nomination board. If it was 28 teams, they take 8 more. I won't insult your intelligence by giving you more examples.

Then, every time one of those 36 teams wins a conference tournament, they add another team from the nomination board. Obviously, every team that wins a conference tournament of any kind is placed into the field regardless, but they only add to the list of 36 at-larges if one of the original 36 wins a conference tournament.

Then, they rank them/seed them (that's another long process), and bracket them.

So, from a procedural standpoint, it's different than what bracketologists do. The committee does not look for reasons to eliminate teams. They don't really eliminate teams. (well, they do. If eight members vote to remove a team from the secondary nomination board, they're eliminated). They add teams as spots become available, and they're looking for reasons to add teams.

I know I sound like a broken record, but if you look at the bubble over recent years and look who did and did not get in, the OVERWHELMING point of consideration seems to be how tough the OOC schedule was, how many games a team played away from home, and how many games a team won away from home. There is no stronger indicator as to who the committee has been prone to take in recent years other than that.

Winning at Seton Hall would have been another win away from home. Beating Seton Hall and USC does not sound like that big of a deal, but it is in the sense that those were winnable games away from. We don't have that many wins away from home, and wins away from home is what seems to be the number one overall tipping point in recent years.

[GoMuskies]

Joe thinks we're going back to Dayton next March...and possibly facing Dayton!

http://proxy.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Hmm, never mind. This much have changed in the last few minutes. He has us as a 10 and not even one of the last four byes. Sitting here today...I'd take it.

[More Cowbell]

Joe thinks we're going back to Dayton next March...and possibly facing Dayton!

http://proxy.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Hmm, never mind. This much have changed in the last few minutes. He has us as a 10 and not even one of the last four byes. Sitting here today...I'd take it.

He also has OK State as the 7 seed. That is laughable.

[muskiefan82]

He also has OK State as the 7 seed. That is laughable.

He also has UC as one of the first four out which is also laughable because I am not sure they will get that close next year.

[powerofX]

He also has UC as one of the first four out which is also laughable because I am not sure they will get that close next year.

And 8 acc teams. That league must be awesome!

[casualfan]

What's really laughable is people paying attention to bracketology right now...

[muskiefan82]

What's really laughable is people paying attention to bracketology right now...

It's the offseason.......for way too long.......although there will be some basketball played in August this year so that will make it a little better. Maybe.