Sneaking up on.....

[Masterofreality]

As of this morning, X is up to 25 in the RPI, 31 SOS and no bad losses. Happy New Year.

Still not talked about as being a serious Big East title contender, nor any poll votes.

Just win baby.

[xubball1993]

That's OK, I like it when X is off the radar and shocks the world of college basketball in March.

[Emp]

I haven't been to a league tourney game since they moved to Atlantic City. Im going to NYC, where I think we are going to do some damage in MSG. This is a fun, competitive team to watch.

[Always Learning]

After the Bahamas, I giggled endlessly at the wagon jumpers, especially from the MM site where pessimism reigns over any loss, and of course those whose vast basketball knowledge come from their experience coaching pee wee teams and stating they coach better than Mack know how too.
I giggled because over a long period of time, I know seasons are marathons not sprints, and that being so well coached, youth gets knowledge of the speed of the game, and adapt game to game.
So it is with this team. Christon now knows he can be a real PG, that he has teammates who will deliver and its not all up to him. The result is not the futile drives to the basket time after time, but drawing the defense to him and then wham, a pass for an easy basket.
I love the three, yeah, all three, bigs and how they give us a real inside presence and fifteen fouls to give. The Davis' duo give us the speed and
close-out free throw shooters. Justin, and I say a prayer every day he does come back next year, is our sleeping giant, does a lot of the dirty work, and can explode at any give time. I am crazy over Brandon and Jalen and think they have huge futures.
Knowing I am prejudiced, I sought out a "real" expert and cajoled him to watch a two game XU game period, vs 'Bama, and Wake and give me his thoughts.
They were .... "very well coached ... unselfish ... work hard on defense ... good rebounding team ... lot of depth ... wish I could coach these guys."
Bottom line .. these guys are fun to watch, and the recruiting job Mack has done is awesome so the future of Xavier basketball is bright indeed.
Welcome guys to the National Stage!

[UCGRAD4X]

After the Bahamas, I giggled endlessly at the wagon jumpers, especially from the MM site where pessimism reigns over any loss, and of course those whose vast basketball knowledge come from their experience coaching pee wee teams and stating they coach better than Mack know how too.
I giggled because over a long period of time, I know seasons are marathons not sprints, and that being so well coached, youth gets knowledge of the speed of the game, and adapt game to game.
So it is with this team. Christon now knows he can be a real PG, that he has teammates who will deliver and its not all up to him. The result is not the futile drives to the basket time after time, but drawing the defense to him and then wham, a pass for an easy basket.
I love the three, yeah, all three, bigs and how they give us a real inside presence and fifteen fouls to give. The Davis' duo give us the speed and
close-out free throw shooters. Justin, and I say a prayer every day he does come back next year, is our sleeping giant, does a lot of the dirty work, and can explode at any give time. I am crazy over Brandon and Jalen and think they have huge futures.
Knowing I am prejudiced, I sought out a "real" expert and cajoled him to watch a two game XU game period, vs 'Bama, and Wake and give me his thoughts.
They were .... "very well coached ... unselfish ... work hard on defense ... good rebounding team ... lot of depth ... wish I could coach these guys."
Bottom line .. these guys are fun to watch, and the recruiting job Mack has done is awesome so the future of Xavier basketball is bright indeed.
Welcome guys to the National Stage!

Well said AL.

It was a foregone conclusion that this team would have some early bumps. There is still a great deal of room for improvement and they will continue to jell as the seasons goes on. Honestly, I am surprised that the Bahamas was the only real hid-up at this point.

p.s. I haven't been to MM is a very long time. Not sure I would even be able to log on.

[Masterofreality]

After the Bahamas, I giggled endlessly at the wagon jumpers, especially from the MM site where pessimism reigns over any loss, and of course those whose vast basketball knowledge come from their experience coaching pee wee teams and stating they coach better than Mack know how too.
I giggled because over a long period of time, I know seasons are marathons not sprints, and that being so well coached, youth gets knowledge of the speed of the game, and adapt game to game.
So it is with this team. Christon now knows he can be a real PG, that he has teammates who will deliver and its not all up to him. The result is not the futile drives to the basket time after time, but drawing the defense to him and then wham, a pass for an easy basket.
I love the three, yeah, all three, bigs and how they give us a real inside presence and fifteen fouls to give. The Davis' duo give us the speed and
close-out free throw shooters. Justin, and I say a prayer every day he does come back next year, is our sleeping giant, does a lot of the dirty work, and can explode at any give time. I am crazy over Brandon and Jalen and think they have huge futures.
Knowing I am prejudiced, I sought out a "real" expert and cajoled him to watch a two game XU game period, vs 'Bama, and Wake and give me his thoughts.
They were .... "very well coached ... unselfish ... work hard on defense ... good rebounding team ... lot of depth ... wish I could coach these guys."
Bottom line .. these guys are fun to watch, and the recruiting job Mack has done is awesome so the future of Xavier basketball is bright indeed.
Welcome guys to the National Stage!

Outstanding take. Reps.

[vee4xu]

I see that X is 25 on CBSSports.com RPI and 39 on the Real Time RPI. But, the point remains, they are trending up. As for sneaking up, I think that the days of Xavier sneaking up on anyone are gone the way of being a mid-major. Hasn't been the case for many years.

[Masterofreality]

I see that X is 25 on CBSSports.com RPI and 39 on the Real Time RPI. But, the point remains, they are trending up. As for sneaking up, I think that the days of Xavier sneaking up on anyone are gone the way of being a mid-major. Hasn't been the case for many years.

You're my buddy Vee, but I respectfully disagree. Read this from a New York writer in Shannon's post game notes:

"If Xavier was hoping to make a splash in the new conference, it needed to look no further than the reaction of at least one New York media member today at Cintas Center.

Overheard after the game:*”I’m surprised by how good Xavier is. They really have a lot of players they can turn to.”"

Surprised by how good Xavier is. So, here we are sneaking.....

[vee4xu]

Fair enough, MOR. I don't disagree with you, my friend, that the Big Apple media dude may be selling X short, but I take what any NYC media person says about X (or anything that is not NYC for that matter) with a grain of salt. Here is where I am coming from on the issue. The NYC media isn't exactly a bellwether for reality or even-handedness. Having worked people in that city for over 20 years, they are so self absorbed that no one can ever be any good as them if they are from west of the Hudson River. They are ethnocentric morons who think the sun rises and sets in the East River. The NYC folks think that we in Ohio are a bunch of rubes and in no way can we compete with anything that isn't NYC. Make me wonder what they'll think of Butler and Creighton. Hopefully, both will kick St. John's ass too. The point I am trying to convey here is that any credible, non-self absorbed media center in the US other than NYC knows Xavier and respects them for all of its mens basketball accomplishments since 1983.

[XUFan09]

I read the Holy Land of Hoops board fairly regularly. Some of the St. John's fans can be real jackasses in exactly the way you describe. Those guys seem to have a sense of entitlement about their team, like they deserve success, and they've mocked "flyover-country" teams, especially Butler and Creighton.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[BMoreX]

I read the Holy Land of Hoops board fairly regularly. Some of the St. John's fans can be real jackasses in exactly the way you describe. Those guys seem to have a sense of entitlement about their team, like they deserve success, and they've mocked "flyover-country" teams, especially Butler and Creighton.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

I've gotten into it with a few of them. I believe I said they reeked of NY elitism and it's totally true. Saying that they play in MSG which is God's gift to this world, in the best city in the world, and they wouldn't be intimidated because of past foes (which is funny considering they've been pretty bad for a while).

Just made me want to beat them even more yesterday.

[bleedXblue]

St. John's was last really good for an extended stretch of years in the 80's with Chris Mullen in the Lou Carnecesca era. I know they had a nice team a few years back, but I clearly consider them to be a very average program right now. They look to have some nice young players, so maybe that will change moving forward. Any fan of their program believing or thinking they have any more than that is just foolish.

[XUFan09]

Those same people also took it as some slight that most people were picking Xavier. Um, I don't care how talented you are...you are producing like the sixth best team in the Big East and you're playing an upward-trending Xavier team at their place.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

St. John's was last really good for an extended stretch of years in the 80's with Chris Mullen in the Lou Carnecesca era. I know they had a nice team a few years back, but I clearly consider them to be a very average program right now. They look to have some nice young players, so maybe that will change moving forward. Any fan of their program believing or thinking they have any more than that is just foolish.

They had a couple of Elite 8 appearances in the 90s, although one of them got vacated.

Which begs the question, how do you treat the 1999 regional final with St. John's and Ohio State? That's got to be the only time there's ever been 2 teams matched up that BOTH teams had their NCAA Tournament results vacated.

[Nigel Tufnel]

St. John's was last really good for an extended stretch of years in the 80's with Chris Mullen in the Lou Carnecesca era. I know they had a nice team a few years back, but I clearly consider them to be a very average program right now. They look to have some nice young players, so maybe that will change moving forward. Any fan of their program believing or thinking they have any more than that is just foolish.

And I loved that team....Mark Jackson, Bill Wenninton, Willie Glass, Chris Mullen....and Walter Berry. Loved watching them play Ewing and the Hoyas and Cuse. They just couldn't get over the hump. I'll never forget watching Mullen pump fake a jump shot...he would lift one foot off the floor but keep the other one down....it confused the officials so much they would call him for traveling half the time even though it never was.

[coasterville95]

I've gotten into it with a few of them. I believe I said they reeked of NY elitism and it's totally true. Saying that they play in MSG which is God's gift to this world, in the best city in the world, and they wouldn't be intimidated because of past foes (which is funny considering they've been pretty bad for a while).

Just made me want to beat them even more yesterday.

I read that thread. Some of it I chalked up to smack talk. But, yeah they didn't make me feel like sending our the welcome wagon to their fans. Did you note they even have a players named God's Gift. Calling yourself that is, IMHO, beyond tacky. There is only ONE man who should be called God's Gift.

It DID make beating them by 10 particularly satisfying, and it's not like they were one of the Big East teams that rolled off the tounge when you rattled off the list of quality Big East teams.

Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova,.... oh and DePaul and St. Johns.

[GIMMFD]

I think we are sneaking, I didn't expect us to be pretty good, I think we are a pretty solid team, people who work for each other, rebound, do the little things, I really hope this trend continues and we start getting more recognition on the national scale, nobody really outside the Xavier radar know much about Xavier, which makes me kind of upset considering we have been one of the best programs for the last decade or so.

[LA Muskie]

I think we are sneaking, I didn't expect us to be pretty good, I think we are a pretty solid team, people who work for each other, rebound, do the little things, I really hope this trend continues and we start getting more recognition on the national scale, nobody really outside the Xavier radar know much about Xavier, which makes me kind of upset considering we have been one of the best programs for the last decade or so.

I don't really think that's true. Most everyone I talked to before yesterday's game expected us to beat St. John's. As did they expect us to beat Tennessee (both times), Wake and 'Bama. Fact of the matter is that aside from the historical big boys, I think most average or better basketball fans would favor us over most middle of the road BCS programs -- at least at home.

We're not getting votes, but that's more a symptom of the dumb way the polls are constructed than anything else. Losing 3 straight -- two to mediocre (at best) teams -- will banish just about every team not coached by K, Smith or Pitino from the polls for several months as punishment.

Are we a Top 25 team? I don't know that I'd even put us there yet. I like the direction we are trending and I think we could run with most of those teams (especially the bottom 5-10), but if I'm a voter I haven't completely forgotten about those 3 losses and the struggles in the following 2.

I do however think we have a very high ceiling and that we will "surprise" some folks with how our season ultimately bears out. Especially post-Bahamas.

[SemajParlor]

They had a couple of Elite 8 appearances in the 90s, although one of them got vacated.

Which begs the question, how do you treat the 1999 regional final with St. John's and Ohio State? That's got to be the only time there's ever been 2 teams matched up that BOTH teams had their NCAA Tournament results vacated.

Tiebreak goes to which ever team had Ron Artest. Queensbridge!

[ballyhoohoo]

Tiebreak goes to which ever team had Ron Artest. Queensbridge!

I think the NCAA bylaws automattically defaults the vacated victory to Duke in those cases.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I think the NCAA bylaws automattically defaults the vacated victory to Duke in those cases.

Hah! That is funny. I love how Puke got the pass on Lance Thomas showing up with $30k cash to a jeweler over Christmas break they year they beat Butler in the NC. God the NCAA needs to be cleaned out.

[paulxu]

Joey sneaks us into a play-in game in Dayton, followed by UMass.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Charlesbt4]

Joey sneaks us into a play-in game in Dayton, followed by UMass.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

If the season ended now, we would have an RPI of 24 and a strength of schedule of 32. There's no way on God's green Earth that we would be a 12 seed with both of those numbers. That's a fucking joke.

[The_Mack_Pack]

If the season ended now, we would have an RPI of 24 and a strength of schedule of 32. There's no way on God's green Earth that we would be a 12 seed with both of those numbers. That's a fucking joke.

I agree with this. Look no further than him placing Saint Mary's as a 9 seed to see how odd that bracket is. But, this stuff doesn't really matter until March, just got to keep winning.

[vee4xu]

CBS Sports RPI has X at #20 and SOS #21. Real Time RPI hasn't updated yet today. They usually do so around noon each day.

[vee4xu]

BTW, Creighton is #23 on CBS.

[Cheesehead]

Lunardi can suck it. He gets more credit than he deserves.

[Masterofreality]

Lunardi can suck it. He gets more credit than he deserves.

Remember that Lunardi is getting paid by ESPN...plus I'm sure that he probably has some ill feelings toward X for bolting the A10.

[LA Muskie]

Remember that Lunardi is getting paid by ESPN...plus I'm sure that he probably has some ill feelings toward X for bolting the A10.
I think the ESPN/Lunardi conspiracy theories are hilarious.

[XUFan09]

Remember that Lunardi is getting paid by ESPN...plus I'm sure that he probably has some ill feelings toward X for bolting the A10.

Lol always the conspiracy theorist, eh? The more likely explanation with Lunardi is he just isn't that good at bracketology, only mediocre, because it's undoubtedly true. The Bracket Project ranked bracketologists (http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html) over the last five seasons based on their predictions. He comes in 35th out of 67th among "Veterans" (three or more years of predictions). If he was ranked with "Newbies," he wouldn't have done much better: 24th of 53rd.

By the way, Jerry Palm is right behind him at 38th among Veterans. Warren Nolan is 47th, though I do appreciate his handy tracking (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/schedule/Xavier) of RPI and rankings and his clean look at a schedule with RPIs of teams (RPI Forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Xavier.html) with Sagarin predictions has excellent content but damn, it is ugly in formatting). Jordan Schwartz with Bleacher Report comes in near the bottom at 58th and Realtime RPI is dead last at 67th.

The good ones among mainstream media? Patrick Stevens of USA Today comes in at #3, and Jeff Borzello comes in at #4. The Bracket Project, which is the composite of all the projections, actually does pretty well, coming in at #12.

[Masterofreality]

I think the ESPN/Lunardi conspiracy theories are hilarious.

Why? He has SucKS as a 10 seed and XU as a play in game- Before their Memphis game- .despite the facts that A) Xavier rolled the Borecats by 17 on a neutral court, B) SucKS has played a horrible schedule that would never impress the Commitee.

If you don't think that ESPN has their minions pimp their "products" you're naive as hell. And Lunardi DOES get paid by the four letter network.

[XUFan09]

Addendum: It looks like Patrick Stevens, the #3 guy over the last five years, is with Syracuse.com now. Apparently that bias didn't stop him from being really good at this.

[XUFan09]

Why? He has SucKS as a 10 seed and XU as a play in game- Before their Memphis game- .despite the facts that A) Xavier rolled the Borecats by 17 on a neutral court, B) SucKS has played a horrible schedule that would never impress the Commitee.

If you don't think that ESPN has their minions pimp their "products" you're naive as hell. And Lunardi DOES get paid by the four letter network.

I'm going to copy and paste a post I wrote on Scout:

Using RPI Forecast to determine quality of wins and losses.

UC:
1 good win (neutral)
1 decent win (home)
2 losses against top 50 teams (away, neutral)
Kenpom rank: 32
Sagarin rank: 29
SOS 120 (Record 12-2)

Xavier:
2 good wins (home, neutral)
2 decent wins (away, home)
2 losses against top 50 teams (neutral, neutral)
1 bad loss (neutral)
Kenpom rank: 36
Sagarin rank: 42
SOS 31 (Record 11-3)

Xavier has played a tougher schedule while accruing only one more loss, but they also have a bad loss while UC has none. This could cancel out the fact that they have 1 good win more than UC. They have one more decent win (really as a result of that tougher schedule), but then UC gets the edge in efficiency statistics, which probably carry disproportionate weight when you consider the smaller sample size.

UC is in the "Last Four Byes" group, while Xavier is in the "Last Four In" group. It's not like there's an enormous difference in their ranking, and I'd guess they are really close to one another on the S-curve, which is fair.

EDIT: By the way, the Selection Committee doesn't really care about head-to-head performances when it comes to seeding.

[XUFan09]

I should have used expected non-conference SOS. It's worse for both teams though, so it doesn't really change much: Xavier 81, UC 181. UC's SOS will really hurt them if they're on the bubble, as the Committee tends to use that as one of their tiebreakers for those last few spots. If they're solidly in the field, though, it's just a deficiency in their resume, and it's not nearly as bad as some recent years.

[BMoreX]

Lunardi at 35th eh? Pretty sure two years ago he was 26th.

His stock is falling.

[Masterofreality]

Where is Xavier's "bad loss"? USC? The same USC that went into the dump and beat the Cryers? Not buying it.

USC is 85 in the RPI rank. How is that a "bad loss"? It's Not. It's BS.

[XUFan09]

Where is Xavier's "bad loss"? USC? The same USC that went into the dump and beat the Cryers? Not buying it.

USC is 85 in the RPI rank. How is that a "bad loss"? It's Not. It's BS.

USC is currently 85th in RPI, a system designed to not be entirely informative until the end of the regular season. They are more likely to finish outside the top 100 than inside, and that's the threshold between "loss" and "bad loss." Now, they do have about a 1 in 3 chance of making it into the top 100, and I would love that. It's just the less probable outcome.

Cincinnati's neutral win over Pitt is much more likely to become a marquee win instead of just a good win than Xavier's loss to USC is to not be a bad loss.

[Masterofreality]

USC is currently 85th in RPI, a system designed to not be entirely informative until the end of the regular season. They are more likely to finish outside the top 100 than inside, and that's the threshold between "loss" and "bad loss." Now, they do have about a 1 in 3 chance of making it into the top 100, and I would love that. It's just the less probable outcome.

Cincinnati's neutral win over Pitt is much more likely to become a marquee win instead of just a good win than Xavier's loss to USC is to not be a bad loss.

So, it's all based on speculation....which means absolutely NOTHING. That means that Lunardi is all speculation too...speculation that means nothing but is colored by who his employers would rather pimp. That is my original point.

It's all BullSheet.

[vee4xu]

Real Time RPI checked in. X is #37, up two spots and #39 SOS.

[vee4xu]

UC #35 RPI and #142 SOS

ud #41 RPI and #73 SOS (another lucky last second win last night. things seem to be breaking their was in last minute games this year.)

[XUFan09]

So, it's all based on speculation....which means absolutely NOTHING. That means that Lunardi is all speculation too...speculation that means nothing but is colored by who his employers would rather pimp. That is my original point.

It's all BullSheet.

Speculation? Try probabilities formed from nearly half a season of data. USC has shown who they are over 13 games, and that's one of the weakest teams in the Pac-12. It's going to be hard for them to win games there. Not impossible but fairly difficult. They are the favored team in only one of their conference games, at home against Oregon State. They are at least a close underdog in a handful of those matchups, and Xavier needs those to go USC's way (or a couple of surprising upsets).

Now, if you want to just dismiss those probabilities, I need to start making bets with you. I'll pick 2-1 favorites but we'll bet even money. In a few games, you might get lucky, but in the long run I should make a decent chunk of money off you.

[paulxu]

Can someone explain to me why LiveRPI has us at #21, and RealTimeRPI has us at #29 as of 3:54PM EST?

Edit: nevermind. I see RealTime hasn't updated today.

[GoMuskies]

How can you be "RealTimeRPI" and not be updated....ever? Is that just the free portion of the site? Surely they must have a premium service that is ACTUALLY real-time then.

[XUFan09]

Can someone explain to me why LiveRPI has us at #21, and RealTimeRPI has us at #29 as of 3:54PM EST?

Edit: nevermind. I see RealTime hasn't updated today.

Which is ironic, considering their name, lol.

On a positive note on probabilities, we are just as likely to finish in the top 50 of RPI as USC is to not finish in the top 100, and we have an expected conference record of 10-8 or 11-7, depending on what metric you look at. A really good scenario? USC gets a couple of good upsets to finish in the top 100, removing the one blemish Xavier potentially would have on their resume. Xavier hits that 11-7 mark, collecting some good wins along the way, and now they have zero losses. And UC gets another decent upset and otherwise holds serve; I think that would put them in the top 25 at the end of the season, counting as a marquee neutral win for Xavier. That would set up for a pretty good seed in the tournament.

[paulxu]

How can you be "RealTimeRPI" and not be updated....ever? Is that just the free portion of the site? Surely they must have a premium service that is ACTUALLY real-time then.

If they do, I'm sure as hell not paying for it.

[XUFan09]

Of course, an even better scenario:

Xavier wins all their home games (This would include top 25 wins over Villanova and Creighton and a thetop 50 win over Georgetown).
They win their road games against the bottom 3: Providence, Seton Hall, and DePaul
They snag a couple road wins against the other 7, maybe even one of the top 4.

13-5: Most likely outcome? No. Improbable? No again.

[Masterofreality]

Speculation? Try probabilities formed from nearly half a season of data. USC has shown who they are over 13 games, and that's one of the weakest teams in the Pac-12. It's going to be hard for them to win games there. Not impossible but fairly difficult. They are the favored team in only one of their conference games, at home against Oregon State. They are at least a close underdog in a handful of those matchups, and Xavier needs those to go USC's way (or a couple of surprising upsets).

Now, if you want to just dismiss those probabilities, I need to start making bets with you. I'll pick 2-1 favorites but we'll bet even money. In a few games, you might get lucky, but in the long run I should make a decent chunk of money off you.

Probabilities also said that Villanova had no chance to beat Georgetown in 1985.

Also, probabilities also state that ESPN pimps the teams/conferences that it has contracts with and minimizes the others. But that is actually real.

[vee4xu]

I believe the continually updated Real Time RPI does require paying real money. I am too cheap and really not interested enough to do so and just wait until mid-day each day to check the site.

[X-band '01]

If USC plays every game in the Pac-12 like they are today, that will be a bad loss (albeit only one).

[xubrew]

UCLA is committing unspeakable atrocities on USC right now. It should be illegal.

[XUFan09]

Probabilities also said that Villanova had no chance to beat Georgetown in 1985.

Also, probabilities also state that ESPN pimps the teams/conferences that it has contracts with and minimizes the others. But that is actually real.

If you think improbable events disprove probability as a predictor, I don't think you understand probability. In fact, Villanova's 1985 title is one of those exceptions that prove the rule. So by using that, maybe you do understand probability and you're just being argumentative. Probabilities picked 2007 Florida and 2009 UNC as the favorite to win the title, and look, they did it. Probabilities picked 2006 Florida as one of the elite favorites despite their 3 seed, and look, they did it. In 2005, Illinois and North Carolina were the odds-on favorites to make it to the national championship and they did just that, UNC winning a close one. Butler's 2009 run to the title game wasn't that improbable if you were paying attention, despite their 5 seed. Same with UConn's 2010 championship. Kentucky's 2012 championship and Louisville's 2013 championship were far from shocking, won by the nation's most probable teams in the respective years.

I can use examples too, but I can easily find a lot more.

[XUFan09]

I believe the continually updated Real Time RPI does require paying real money. I am too cheap and really not interested enough to do so and just wait until mid-day each day to check the site.

Just go to Live-RPI.com instead. Free and up-to-the-minute.

[Burrcats]

I got to see part of the Xavier-Butler game and I came away pretty impressed with Xavier's defense. Ken Pom ranks it #27 which is very good. The computer numbers look good for the Big East, but I haven't been overly impressed with the league. Xavier could definitely win the league.

Good to see both Xavier (#23) and Cincinnati (#24) in the top 25 of the RPI...at least currently.

Other good sites to check efficiency rankings are: Teamrankings (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/overall-power-ranking-by-team), of course KenPom (http://kenpom.com/) and THIS (http://www.scacchoops.com/NCAATeam.asp?sTeamName=Xavier&Search=Search&bView=0) is good for player +/- and also tracking efficiency live-tracked during the games.

Congrats on the good season so far, and good luck going forward in the Big East

Cheers

[Burrcats]

If you think improbable events disprove probability as a predictor, I don't think you understand probability. In fact, Villanova's 1985 title is one of those exceptions that prove the rule. So by using that, maybe you do understand probability and you're just being argumentative. Probabilities picked 2007 Florida and 2009 UNC as the favorite to win the title, and look, they did it. Probabilities picked 2006 Florida as one of the elite favorites despite their 3 seed, and look, they did it. In 2005, Illinois and North Carolina were the odds-on favorites to make it to the national championship and they did just that, UNC winning a close one. Butler's 2009 run to the title game wasn't that improbable if you were paying attention, despite their 5 seed. Same with UConn's 2010 championship. Kentucky's 2012 championship and Louisville's 2013 championship were far from shocking, won by the nation's most probable teams in the respective years.

I can use examples too, but I can easily find a lot more.

A good indicator of if a team is capable of winning a National Title is their adjusted offense and defense rankings. Every champion has been in the top 20 in offense and defense since KenPom starting tracking efficiency stats a decade ago.

[vee4xu]

Just go to Live-RPI.com instead. Free and up-to-the-minute.

Thanks.

[XUFan09]

A good indicator of if a team is capable of winning a National Title is their adjusted offense and defense rankings. Every champion has been in the top 20 in offense and defense since KenPom starting tracking efficiency stats a decade ago.

Yup. And they've been top 10 overall every time (often #1 or #2).

[Juice]

I got to see part of the Xavier-Butler game and I came away pretty impressed with Xavier's defense. Ken Pom ranks it #27 which is very good. The computer numbers look good for the Big East, but I haven't been overly impressed with the league. Xavier could definitely win the league.

Good to see both Xavier (#23) and Cincinnati (#24) in the top 25 of the RPI...at least currently.

Other good sites to check efficiency rankings are: Teamrankings (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/overall-power-ranking-by-team), of course KenPom (http://kenpom.com/) and THIS (http://www.scacchoops.com/NCAATeam.asp?sTeamName=Xavier&Search=Search&bView=0) is good for player +/- and also tracking efficiency live-tracked during the games.

Congrats on the good season so far, and good luck going forward in the Big East

Cheers

Gary Parrish has UC at 26 in his TOP 25 and 1 rankings

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24399951/updated-top-25-and-one

[Xavier]

But, wait. That's not ESPN. MOR?

[Lumberjack Love Slave]

I hate being snuck-up on.

[Masterofreality]

Gary Parrish has UC at 26 in his TOP 25 and 1 rankings

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24399951/updated-top-25-and-one


But, wait. That's not ESPN. MOR?

See the Memphis overrated thread. Just because Pastner comes on every possible radio show and makes all the media guys his friend, doesn't mean that they're any good. Parrish is from Memphis and a Memphis shill. Remember that.

As to the Borecats? 64-47. What were the "probabilities" on that?

[XUFan09]

As to the Borecats? 64-47. What were the "probabilities" on that?

Not very high but the final scores of the Butler, St. John's, and Wake games were all fairly probable before the game started. But congratulations for continuing to use minority events to try to disprove probability as a predictor.

[gladdenguy]

Gary Parrish has the borekittens 26th in his latest poll. Joke.

[danaandvictory]

Pom has them 21st in his rankings. Whether you like it or not, the computers like them and that increasingly drives the poll voters.

[Masterofreality]

My Gawd, enough already with projections and probabilities.

I quote numbers based upon stuff that has actually happened. Games played, final scores. That is all that matters in the final analysis.

I deal in reality, not what ifs. Guys like Lunardi deal in mental masturbation, and will tailor it for an agenda. If someone doesn't want to believe that, so be it.

I'll just remember a "minority event" like Jay Bilas sitting on his throne at ESPN stating flatly that Xavier did not deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament over a 9th place Big East team on Selection Sunday after the brackets were released...the league of which happened to have a fat TV contract with ESPN at the time.

Back to the point. We are sneaking up on......by winning games. That is all.

[XUFan09]

1) Numbers and probabilities take into account wins and final scores, and they tend to give a good tale of a team. That's reality.
2) It was actually pretty probable that Bilas would make an ass of himself. That's what he tends to do every year after the brackets come out. And these numbers actually provide a good response to those morons that agree with him.
3) If you don't care for them, then just don't read about them.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[SemajParlor]

Not like it matters, but was a little surprised to see us only get 3 votes this week.

[GoMuskies]

Not like it matters, but was a little surprised to see us only get 3 votes this week.

If Xavier goes 2-0 this week, the Muskies will be ranked next week.

[The_Mack_Pack]

Voters like 1.) road conference wins and 2.) wins against ranked teams at the time you beat them. While Xavier's overall resume is better than a lot of the ranked teams and teams receiving votes, X has not done 1 or 2 yet. Get two wins this week and the voters will take notice.

[A10fan]

If Xavier goes 2-0 this week, the Muskies will be ranked next week.

I doubt that even an upset win at creighton will get X ranked next week. Too much ground to make up.

[vee4xu]

I doubt that even an upset win at creighton will get X ranked next week. Too much ground to make up.


???

[XU 87]

Speculation? Try probabilities formed from nearly half a season of data. USC has shown who they are over 13 games, and that's one of the weakest teams in the Pac-12. It's going to be hard for them to win games there. Not impossible but fairly difficult. They are the favored team in only one of their conference games, at home against Oregon State. They are at least a close underdog in a handful of those matchups, and Xavier needs those to go USC's way (or a couple of surprising upsets).



What you say may turn out to be correct, but right now USC has an RPI of 72.

[XUFan09]

What you say may turn out to be correct, but right now USC has an RPI of 72.

Yeah, I think USC would have a good chance of playing in a weaker conference, or just the Pac 12 a couple years ago. They just probably aren't going to win enough games.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[GoMuskies]

Notwithstanding the 34 point beat down they just took from UCLA, I bet they win the return game. That rivalry is getting nice and ugly on the hardwood. Enfield and Alford seem to genuinely despise each other, which makes me like Enfield a bit more.

[LA Muskie]

???
I think his point is that we would have to pass too many others to make that jump in 1 week at this stage of the season. As it is, there are only about 8 schools at risk of falling out of the rankings with a single loss this week (a few more if they suffer 2). And then of course we would have to leap-frog about 11 schools getting more (indeed, significantly more) votes than us. So we'd need most of those schools to lose as well.

[GoMuskies]

I think the polls are more fluid than that at this point of the year. If we go to Creighton and get a win to get to 4-0 in the Big East, we'll be ranked Monday afternoon.

[LA Muskie]

I think the polls are more fluid than that at this point of the year. If we go to Creighton and get a win to get to 4-0 in the Big East, we'll be ranked Monday afternoon.
I think we're past that point, but I hope you're right.

[waggy]

If we sneak up on both Marquette and Creighton this week, we might sneak into the polls?

Sneak Week!

[vee4xu]

If we sneak up on both Marquette and Creighton this week, we might sneak into the polls?

Sneak Week!

Well played.

[Masterofreality]

If we sneak up on both Marquette and Creighton this week, we might sneak into the polls?

Sneak Week!

Sneak Week....STREAK!!!!!!!!!!!

[waggy]

Feed the Sneak?


Ok I'll stop now.

[Juice]

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/06/college-basketball-talk-bracketology-arizona-syracuse-headline-first-bracket-of-the-year/

College Basketball Talk has X as a 9 seed.

[vee4xu]

They have X playing Illinois, which is coached by Groce, former XU and OSU assistant to beak. Also, wasn't he head coach of Ohio U when they beat Georgetown?

[X-band '01]

I think Tim O'Shea (Bryant's current head coach) was at OU for the Georgetown win. Groce had the Sweet 16 team at OU.

[XUFan09]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Projected in the field in 16 out of 27 brackets, with an average seed of 9.69. Top two projections: 6 and 7.

[GoMuskies]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Projected in the field in 16 out of 27 brackets, with an average seed of 9.69. Top two projections: 6 and 7.

Those other 11 brackets are busted.

[vee4xu]

Let's toss this article into the mix:


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24400583/poll-attacks-you-guys-realize-uconn-is-no-longer-undefeated-righ

[Masterofreality]

And, of course, SucKS appears this week in ESPN's "Power Rankings"....

Because, you know, they have to replace one AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC team with another.

64-47.

[GoMuskies]

Wake must have snuck up on UNC the other night. They're turrible.

Maybe Bzdelik gets a contract extension?

[xubrew]

Wake must have snuck up on UNC the other night. They're turrible.

Maybe Bzdelik gets a contract extension?

Lets hope so.

[Milhouse]

I dont think anyone 1 seed wants to face Semaj/Stainbrook in round 2 if we get that 8/9 seed....

[paulxu]

Let's not sneak up anymore.

Let's just punch somebody in the mouth.
(figure of speech before some of you go off half-cocked).

[GoMuskies]

Let's not sneak up anymore.

Let's just punch somebody in the mouth.
(figure of speech before some of you go off half-cocked).

Why not play the knockout game? Then we can do both. And it's very popular with the kids these days.

[paulxu]

Not a bad idea.

[Kahns Krazy]

And, of course, SucKS appears this week in ESPN's "Power Rankings"....

Because, you know, they have to replace one AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC team with another.

64-47.

Obsess much?

But since you brought it up, UC is playing some good basketball. I'm really not sure how we thumped them so bad, or why we can't play that well every game. They win basketball games. I might start betting on them so I can at least make some money while they piss me off.

[XUFan09]

Obsess much?

But since you brought it up, UC is playing some good basketball. I'm really not sure how we thumped them so bad, or why we can't play that well every game. They win basketball games. I might start betting on them so I can at least make some money while they piss me off.

Agreed. UC's defense has been really, really good this season. It's currently the third most efficient in the nation, adjusted for strength of schedule, because they've been really good at forcing steals (and turnovers in general) and blocking/contesting interior shots. They're on a six-game winning sreak, including three wins over Kenpom top 50 teams (1 at home, 1 neutral, and 1 on the road). The two clearly bad teams they faced they beat by 21 and 40 and Nebraska (a mediocre team) they beat by 15.

The keys to beating them are knocking down 3s in order to stretch out their otherwise-strong interior defense, taking care of the ball, and denying them offensive boards (which turns their mediocre offense into a miserable one). Xavier fulfilled 2 out of 3 of those categories. If we're lucky, not enough of the good AAC teams will be able to achieve that, and UC will end up in the top 25 of RPI rankings, counting as a marquee neutral win on Xavier's resume. If we're really lucky, then after that UC will lose in the first round of the tournament in spectacular fashion, preferably to a mid-major team.

[waggy]

Watching the Shootout I thought it strange that they (UC) weren't a lot more aggressive in trapping Dee.

[paulxu]

Speaking of sneaking up, while you were screwing around out there in Wichita Go, MOR is preparing to sneak in the back door of your little one man club.

[GoMuskies]

MOR is preparing to sneak in the back door of your little one man club.

That's gross.

[Xavier]

Obsess much?

But since you brought it up, UC is playing some good basketball. I'm really not sure how we thumped them so bad, or why we can't play that well every game. They win basketball games. I might start betting on them so I can at least make some money while they piss me off.

At times I think MOR cares more about UC losses than anything. While they have a great defense, I don't think the X win was a fluke. I think Xavier wins 7/10 against UC. It is still a typical UC team, good defense, get rebounds, cant shoot, tough to get any offense. Memphis plays exactly into UCs strengths. The AAC is bad enough I expect UC to be in with a solid seed, but won't do much ocne in. In other words I dont think UC is top 25 good.

[Masterofreality]

No obsession. Just can't stand seeing our chief rival get all this unwarrented benefit while we are playing much better basketball.

Why should the Borecats be allowed to get away with a 300plus non- schedule prior to playing X and New Mex who they both lost to, playing one of the most Horriffic games ever against a marginal Pitt team then getting orgasmic press over beating a clearly overrated Memphis?

Everything I have said is true..including ESPN protecting their own. Believe what you want.

[JTG]

I dont think anyone 1 seed wants to face Semaj/Stainbrook in round 2 if we get that 8/9 seed....

The 8-9 seed is a death sentence. The winner almost always loses the next game.

[DART87]

1) Numbers and probabilities take into account wins and final scores, and they tend to give a good tale of a team. That's reality.
2) It was actually pretty probable that Bilas would make an ass of himself. That's what he tends to do every year after the brackets come out. And these numbers actually provide a good response to those morons that agree with him.
3) If you don't care for them, then just don't read about them.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

Had to bring up an old post but reps to MOR and especially XUFan09 to bring the conversation to this point. I don't care who you are that there's funny!

[bobbiemcgee]

I'll just wait for these guys, always right:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[SemajParlor]

The 8-9 seed is a death sentence. The winner almost always loses the next game.

Ali Faroukanesh says hi.

[xumuskies08]

Does this count as sneaking up on Marquette?

"I know Xavier well. I know Chris Mack well. They are a 125 RPI type team that over performs at home. If we don't win I will be disappointed. We match up well this year as we did in the tourney three years ago. Bet to cover at a minimum."

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=41302.0

[GoMuskies]

Nice, we've snuck up on Marquette!

Marquette fans are kind of like Butler fans, minus the successful program to back it up.

[ammtd34]

Does this count as sneaking up on Marquette?

"I know Xavier well. I know Chris Mack well. They are a 125 RPI type team that over performs at home. If we don't win I will be disappointed. We match up well this year as we did in the tourney three years ago. Bet to cover at a minimum."

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=41302.0

Hahaha, what?

[bleedXblue]

Hahaha, what?

Yeah, they have some idiot posters....just like........well, never mind

[nuts4xu]

As far as a rivals message board, they seem very reasonable to me. Sure, they seem to slant towards Marquette, but it is a freaking Marquette message board. Any comparisons to dayton are very premature at this point. One dolt says we are a "125 RPI type team" but most understand how difficult it will be to win at the Cintas Center.

I am not a fan of Peterson or Marquette and I understand very well the history of the rivalry. But in no way do I feel the same animosity I feel towards dayton, UC, or Butler. Not yet at least....

[fellahmuskie]

That loss to Marquette in the tourney is more than enough reason for me to hate them.

[Masterofreality]

As far as a rivals message board, they seem very reasonable to me. Sure, they seem to slant towards Marquette, but it is a freaking Marquette message board. Any comparisons to dayton are very premature at this point. One dolt says we are a "125 RPI type team" but most understand how difficult it will be to win at the Cintas Center.

I am not a fan of Peterson or Marquette and I understand very well the history of the rivalry. But in no way do I feel the same animosity I feel towards dayton, UC, or Butler. Not yet at least....

Wait until you get enough doses of Buzz.

[BandAid]

Wait until you get enough doses of Buzz.

I like Buzz. He's a good coach. I will probably end up hating playing against him twice a year though.

[LadyMuskie]

That loss to Marquette in the tourney is more than enough reason for me to hate them.

That loss doesn't stick in my craw the way some losses do. That loss was more on us than on them. We just didn't show up. But, Buzz is obnoxious. He's like the ud fan base rolled into one person.

[waggy]

Nuts loves him some Buzz...

[sirthought]

Buzz Williams is alright in my book. Tough, competitive teams are always worth watching. He's overcome a lot naysayers by coaching guys that work hard and are coachable.

Will I be rooting for X when we play MU? Hell yes.

[XUFan09]

From all accounts, though. he's kind of an ass. Now, I'm perfectly okay with the dancing in front of the WVU students after beating them that one time, because it was pretty awesome...as WVU students are douchebags.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[Xavier]

I don't really like him- or the style he coaches. I don't think that style is ever a NC type style, sure they can beat more talented teams but nothing worth while.

[vee4xu]

Reading this thread reminds me of past threads about Martelli and St. Joe's. Love him, hate him, sincere, insincere, good team, overrated team. To give it a try, just substitute Martelli for Williams and St. Joe's for Marquette and see what you think. I was at the NCAA game in Cleveland. That's the day bourbonman and I sat in the row right in front of Sean Miller's dad. But, that's another story for another day.

[vee4xu]

The only thing I will say at this point is that Williams looks very much like Jerry Horwitz.

[waggy]

I don't think I've ever heard Buzz actually say anything, so kinda hard to hate him.


Thought is pretty awesome that he wore a tux on new years at Creighton.

[vee4xu]

1329

[Masterofreality]

The Awesome James Farr slam putback was not one of ESPN's Top 10 plays last night.

Nah, there's no ESPN vs Big East bias. It's all a conspiracy theory. :whistle:

[Retire33]

People starting to notice....

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/92410/weekend-homework-welcome-xavier-back

[Muskie]

The Awesome James Farr slam putback was not one of ESPN's Top 10 plays last night.

Nah, there's no ESPN vs Big East bias. It's all a conspiracy theory. :whistle:

I wouldn't know. I was watching FS1 this morning for my highlights. I did get to see the dunk on that channel.

[Drew's Crew]

The Awesome James Farr slam putback was not one of ESPN's Top 10 plays last night.

Nah, there's no ESPN vs Big East bias. It's all a conspiracy theory. :whistle:

I do think it is admirable that you convinced yourself for years that ESPN was in the pocket of the Big East and now that X is in the Big East, ESPN hates the Big East....usually for totally trivial reasons.

You are one determined fan.

[X-Fan]

People starting to notice....

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/92410/weekend-homework-welcome-xavier-back
Great article! The first paragraph is just Fantastic!
"The first rule of writing about Xavier basketball is that you never overlook Xavier basketball. It’s a little bit like picking a non-Kansas Big 12 team to win the Big 12: After a few years of being wrong, you eventually just stop."

Love it!

Go X!!!!

[paulxu]

While I'm happy for the ESPN publicity, they're writing/editing needs a little work.


Counting Xavier out of its conference title race now seems as silly as it ever.

There's a word missing I think.


On Saturday, Criston, junior forward Matt Stainbrook and the rest of a surprisingly efficient Musketeers offense will take their show to Creighton, where they’ll face star forward Doug McDermott and Creighton’s high-powered attack

I thought we played on Sunday. Maybe he's talking about their flight plan or something.

[GoMuskies]

I do think it is admirable that you convinced yourself for years that ESPN was in the pocket of the Big East and now that X is in the Big East, ESPN hates the Big East....usually for totally trivial reasons.

You are one determined fan.

Not that I'm with MOR on this one, but there IS one pretty huge difference between the Big East of the past and the Big East of now as it concerns ESPN.

[Masterofreality]

Not that I'm with MOR on this one, but there IS one pretty huge difference between the Big East of the past and the Big East of now as it concerns ESPN.

Yeah, since in the past ESPN had a financial stake in its success and now it does not.... Plus we are on a direct competitor who's trying to steal their lunch money. How hard is this to understand? This is business and nobody pumps up their competitor.

[Masterofreality]

People starting to notice....

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/92410/weekend-homework-welcome-xavier-back

But props to ESPN and Brennan for this

[LA Muskie]

Yeah, since in the past ESPN had a financial stake in its success and now it does not.... Plus we are on a direct competitor who's trying to steal their lunch money. How hard is this to understand? This is business and nobody pumps up their competitor.

The notion that the execs on high at ESPN sent a message to all of their contributing writers, editors and talking heads to ignore the Big East is pretty far-fetched MOR. Most of them are far more concerned about their own image and reputation than ESPN's ratings for its Wednesday night AAC game. Which means that -- more than anything else -- they want to be right.

Don't get me wrong. They still care about those ratings (ESPN pays their salary), but most are smart enough to know that being right will keep them employed -- and will keep eyes and ears on ESPN.

[Burrcats]

Hmm, very interesting to hear this perspective. I guess it is true that fans, regardless of team or conference, will find a way to convince themselves that ESPN is biased against them. Big East (and now AAC fans) have also been quite upset with ESPN's coverage of the football side.

I was quite disappointed with the AAC TV deal, but commissioner Mike Aresco did live up to the "exposure" part of the deal. For the first time, including when UC was in the Big East, every Cincinnati conference games will be televised nationally by either ESPN, CBS or CBSSN (which are all channels I get on my fairly basic package). That is great for non-local fans. This year UC will have 5 ESPNU games, 4 ESPN games, 1 ESPN2 game, 1 CBS game, and 6 CBSSN games.

I am sure as Fox Sports grows with MLB and more college football live games next year. It will still be tough to compete with the "World Wide Leader"