New Blog Post: BE vs. A10

[XUFan09]

Here's (http://fromstaaktomack.wordpress.com/2013/12/24/why-the-big-east-is-better-than-the-a10-part-2-this-season/) a discussion of the Big East versus our old friends in the A10. Like I said at the end of the post, I can't believe I actually had to "prove" that the Big East was better. Insanity.

[Masterofreality]

Here's (http://fromstaaktomack.wordpress.com/2013/12/24/why-the-big-east-is-better-than-the-a10-part-2-this-season/) a discussion of the Big East versus our old friends in the A10. Like I said at the end of the post, I can't believe I actually had to "prove" that the Big East was better. Insanity.

Good post....except for quoting anything GoMuskies says. :biggrin:

[XUFan09]

Good post....except for quoting anything GoMuskies says. :biggrin:

Lol

[GoMuskies]

I found that part of the post particularly poignant.

[xubrew]

Here is my concern for the Big East for this year. It isn't so much comparing it to the Atlantic Ten specifically, but just in general.

There were 50 teams last year that received seeds of #12 or better, or that received at-large bids as #13 seeds (Boise State and La Salle). Below is a list of teams that did not manage an out of conference win against a team seeded #12th or better.

1. Villanova - 10-8 in conference
2. Oklahoma - 11-7 in conf.
3. Ohio State - 13-5 in conf.(won B10 tourney)
4. Notre Dame - 11-7 in conf, did beat Baylor and Kentucky, who were bubble teams
5. Iowa St - 11-7 in conf
6. Ole Miss - 12-6 in conf, won SEC Tourney, only got a #12 seed
7. NC State 11-7 in conf, (but, they did beat UConn, who would've gotten in)
8. Cal - 12-6 in conf
9. Memphis - 16-0, won auto bid, and their overratedness is well documented
10. Colorado State - 11-5 in conf.

So, essentially, of the fifty teams that were "safe" for an at-large, forty of them won an out of conference game against another team in that group of fifty. That's a pretty big percentage of teams, so I think it's safe to say that what you do out of conference is very important.

Of the ten that didn't manage an OOC win against an at-large caliber team, all but one finished four games above .500 in conference. How many Big East teams will finish four games above .500??

Three of them won automatic bids and didn't even need an at-large.

The vast majority of the ten played in leagues that had multiple teams who won big OOC games.

One of them beat a team that would have made the NCAA Tournament had they been eligible (NC State), and another managed wins against two bubble teams (Notre Dame).

I'm concerned about the Big East's lack of notable OOC wins. People think I'm bashing the Big East when I continually raise this concern, but that is not my intent. The league doesn't have a lot of big wins. Outside of Villanova, I don't think anyone has beaten a team that is solidly in the field.

So, when you look at what teams have to do that don't win notable OOC games (IE finish four games above .500 in a league that has multiple teams who won big OOC games), I don't think the BE will be sending that many teams this year. Last year, Ole Miss went 12-6, and won the SEC Tournament, and STILL only got a #12 seed. Had they not won the SEC Tourney, they may have missed the NCAA Tourney. If they're going to seed a 12-6 SEC team that poorly because the league lacked notable OOC wins, they'll do the same to the BE this year.

I'm not sure that the committee will take a 11-7 Big East team with no good OOC wins. That doesn't fit the profile of any team that received an at-large last year. You need to win out of conference, and if you don't, you better be in a conference with teams who did win out of conference (which the BE really isn't), and you better be safely above .500.

[GoMuskies]

I think Xavier will have done enough in the non-conference assuming a win on Saturday. At worst UC and Tennessee are bubble teams, so we will have two wins over bubble teams or at-large teams.

[paulxu]

I'm trying real hard to forget crampgate in the Bahamas. This isn't helping.

[Masterofreality]

I think Xavier will have done enough in the non-conference assuming a win on Saturday. At worst UC and Tennessee are bubble teams, so we will have two wins over bubble teams or at-large teams.

.....And, there will be no bad losses. USC winning at the dump the other day certifies that.

[xubrew]

I think Xavier will have done enough in the non-conference assuming a win on Saturday. At worst UC and Tennessee are bubble teams, so we will have two wins over bubble teams or at-large teams.

Xavier is in better shape than most of the rest of the league. If we can get to 13 total wins (season and conf. tourney combined) we should be safe. The league as a whole has not produced though. We're disappointed and still in better shape than just about everyone other than Nova.

It's been a disappointing season so far for much of the BE. The lack of good wins are a reason for concern. I understand wanting to be optimistic, but at the same time I just don't agrees with any assessments that are predicting this to be a five or six bid league this year. It won't be.

[Masterofreality]

While you might be right, Brew, you also have to look at it within the context of other leagues.

The Committee HAS to pick 68 teams 30 plus of them at large. To me, only the Big 10, Big 12 and probably the Pac 12 have shown that more than 2 teams are deserving to this point. I still think that 5 BE is a lock with still a 6 possible. There will not be 7 or 8 however.

[bleedXblue]

I think we need to get to 22-23 wins to be in pretty good shape......something like 11-7 in league play would put us at 21 wins pre Big East Tourney.

One game at a time for this team is key.......having 3 straight league games to start conference play doesn't hurt either to hopefully get some momentum built

[casualfan]

To me, only the Big 10, Big 12 and probably the Pac 12 have shown that more than 2 teams are deserving to this point.

The AAC has Louisville, Memphis, and UCONN. Pretty safe bet they will have more than 2.

[waggy]

What prompted a BE vs. A10 comparison?

[XUFan09]

What prompted a BE vs. A10 comparison?

It's been more on Musketeer Madness than here, but there have been people claiming that the A10 is doing better. Add discussions on Holy Land of Hoops to the mix, then a UR friend saying that he'd rather stay in the A10, then DeCourcy's article. It all accumulated enough to raise my annoyance to the level where I had to show how plain wrong it was.

But yeah, I'm with Brew in thinking that the inaugural year of the conference hasn't been that great. Xavier is still in better shape than they were with the A10 before you even account for bottom-feeders.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

The top of the A-10 may be doing better, but the bottom of the Big East is going to be miles ahead of the Duquesnes and Fordhams of the world.

[waggy]

Your UR friend might get his wish.

I think this discussion is mostly driven by people on the A10 side of the aisle. Shaka thinks an A10/BE challenge is a wonderful idea.

[XUFan09]

The top of the A-10 may be doing better, but the bottom of the Big East is going to be miles ahead of the Duquesnes and Fordhams of the world.

The top of the A10 isn't doing better, though. That is clear from my blog post ;-)

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[Masterofreality]

The AAC has Louisville, Memphis, and UCONN. Pretty safe bet they will have more than 2.

Memphis has proven nothing to me yet.

[XUFan09]

Memphis has proven nothing to me yet.

I think a Kenpom rank of 18th, neutral court victories over RPI #14 Oklahoma State (projected #7) and #16 LSU (projected #32), and losses only to two top 15 teams (neither one at home) count as something. I don't think Pastner is a good basketball coach, but he has some really talented players to make up for it.

[XUFan09]

I think most teams have some decent wins (top 100), but in terms of wins you can hang your hat on (using Kenpom top 50), here's my list:

Kenpom #5 Villanova: Kansas (N), Iowa (N)
#16 Creighton: Arizona State (N)
#32 Georgetown: VCU (N)
#44 Marquette: None
#45 Xavier: Cincinnati (N), Tennessee (H)
#51 Butler: None
#56 St. John's: None
#71 Providence: None
#133 Seton Hall: None
#141 DePaul: None

That's six Kenpom top 50 OOC wins, shared by only 4 teams. Providence will get a chance to get on the board at #20 UMass, but Villanova is the only other team even playing a top 50 team to finish the nonconference schedule (and Xavier is the only other one even playing a top 100 opponent).

Marquette's neutral win over George Washington might end up being an RPI top 50 win, but it's really borderline (projected 49th by RPI Forecast, which uses Sagarin numbers).

Butler may get an RPI top 50 home win over Princeton, who is currently projected 61st.

That's pretty underwhelming. The Big East has 7 teams in the top 56 of Kenpom, but they have a dearth of good wins between those teams. If everything goes the conference's way (highly unlikely), with Villanova beating Syracuse, Providence beating UMass, and George Washington and Princeton finishing in the top 50, the conference will have 10 good OOC wins between 6 teams. That's a pretty weak best-case scenario.

[XUFan09]

But hey, at least it's not the A10. They also have 7 Kenpom top 50 wins right now, but 4 of those belong to UMass. Seriously, good job this year so far, Minutemen. Richmond @ Florida, Rhode Island @ LSU, and Fordham (*snicker*) at Harvard are the only top 50 games left on their nonconference schedule. I think Providence beating UMass is about as likely as any one of those teams winning their respective game.

[XUFan09]

These past two posts I fleshed out a little further into an addendum post (http://fromstaaktomack.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/addendum-to-the-big-east-being-better-than-the-a10/) to the original blog post that started this thread.

[Xavier]

While you might be right, Brew, you also have to look at it within the context of other leagues.

The Committee HAS to pick 68 teams 30 plus of them at large. To me, only the Big 10, Big 12 and probably the Pac 12 have shown that more than 2 teams are deserving to this point. I still think that 5 BE is a lock with still a 6 possible. There will not be 7 or 8 however.

ACC? Duke/UNC/Syracuse

And in normal years, I think 5-6 is about where the Big East will be. This year I think it will be 4-5. I would be more surprised at 6 getting in then just 4.

[xavierj]

3 of the top 4 teams in the A-10 have pretty bad strengths of schedules, over 100. They also have three teams with SOS's over 300. The conference SOS right now is 13th where as the Big East is at #3. When it is all said and done the Big East will have 8 maybe 9 out of 10 teams in the top 100 RPI, the A-10 might have 5 teams out of 13 in the top 100 of the RPI. They will be lucky to get more than two teams in the tournament. Yeah the A-10 might have good records right now but only UMASS is really doing anything, as has been stated.

[XUFan09]

3 of the top 4 teams in the A-10 have pretty bad strengths of schedules, over 100. They also have three teams with SOS's over 300. The conference SOS right now is 13th where as the Big East is at #3. When it is all said and done the Big East will have 8 maybe 9 out of 10 teams in the top 100 RPI, the A-10 might have 5 teams out of 13 in the top 100 of the RPI. They will be lucky to get more than two teams in the tournament. Yeah the A-10 might have good records right now but only UMASS is really doing anything, as has been stated.

Very true. SLU is destroying a cupcake schedule and losing their games to their only two good opponents (Wisconsin and Wichita State). VCU has played a pretty weak schedule outside three top 50 opponents (1-2 in the those matchups). Dayton had great exempt tournament matchups, but otherwise their schedule is awful.

To be fair, Xavier's SOS isn't that great. They played an extra buy game this year, along with Miami-OH, and the anchor that is Abilene-Christian doesn't help. Luckily the Selection Committee isn't going to count that game (because ACU is a first-year transitional team). Kenpom, Sagarin, etc., however, do count it. Unlike the A10 teams, though, Xavier has the luxury of starting the conference schedule playing five straight Kenpom top 56 opponents, with cellar-dwellers much better than the A10's later in the schedule.

Speaking of Miami-OH, it's really funny how offended their fans are that Xavier won't play a home-and-home with them. They can't even manage a top 200 finish! When they were falling between 70 and 150, at least they were a respectable lower-level opponent, good for a team needing weaker teams to pair with the tough ones on their schedule. Now they're just awful, a serious anchor on the SOS.

[MHettel]

I dont think you have adequately considered the impact of an 18 game conference schedule. The collective non-conference win-loss record of our BE opponents is critical for us, and is amplified the more conference games we play.

We need to bring more OOC wins into the conference, and that could result in slightly lower SOS's during the non-con.