Draft Express view of Semaj

[XUdenver]

A VERY interesting visual look at Semaj from a scouts perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em1cAjmfOsI&feature=player_embedded

[Charlesbt4]

A VERY interesting visual look at Semaj from a scouts perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em1cAjmfOsI&feature=player_embedded

Thanks for posting that link. It was definitely worth watching.

[ammtd34]

A VERY interesting visual look at Semaj from a scouts perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em1cAjmfOsI&feature=player_embedded

Great video. I'm about 6:00 in, seems accurate so far.

[Xman95]

I think it's a pretty solid scouting report based on his freshman year. So far he hasn't really put the shooting concerns to bed, but hopefully we'll see the improvement in his game as the year unfolds. If the big improvements aren't there with his shooting, decisions, etc., we probably don't have to worry about him leaving early (well, at least it wouldn't be the best decision). But, if he can tighten up his game and prove that he can shoot the ball from the perimeter and the foul line, we might be watching his last year at X.

Personally, I think Semaj has a SG game in a PG body (NBA sizes, not college) and has a lot of improving to do before he becomes the potential lottery pick that some think he already is. The athletic ability looks to be there, but it's very raw. We're only two games in so it's way too early to know if he has put things together and taken the next step.

[xavierj]

I wish he could be here next year but no one near the team expects him back.

[Muskeagle]

One thing possibly working in our favor for him to come back is that this is an absolutely loaded draft class.

[nkymuskie]

I just don't see any chance that he is back. I think the staff clearly recruited with the thought that he is leaving seeing as we are 2 scholarships over the limit. If Semaj does leave we will still have to come up with 1 more scholarship.

[Xman95]

I wish he could be here next year but no one near the team expects him back.

I agree, that's the current thinking. But he will really need to show over the course of the year that he's improved as a shooter and as a point guard. If, when the season is over, he seems like he's still the same player we saw last year, leaving school will be a mistake. Now, if those improvements are there, he'll probably move himself into a very nice draft position.

[XUFan09]

I don't worry about him showing point guard skills. He came in as a pass-first point guard but was asked to be the go-to scorer for the team. It wasn't an easy transition for him in the preseason and the beginning of the season, but he adjusted to the role demanded of him. Now he has a cluster of offensive options around him and he is getting to transition back to being more of a pass-first point guard (albeit with a strong personal scoring ability). It's a rough transition after a year of college ball playing a different role and the team as a whole is also developing its chemistry still, but he'll get back to what he has generally been for the years prior to coming to Xavier.

[Juice]

I agree, that's the current thinking. But he will really need to show over the course of the year that he's improved as a shooter and as a point guard. If, when the season is over, he seems like he's still the same player we saw last year, leaving school will be a mistake. Now, if those improvements are there, he'll probably move himself into a very nice draft position.

Coming back to school is usually a dumb move when you are most likely a first round pick. The guaranteed money is too much to pass up. And very rarely does anyone develop anything in college that he couldn't do in practice or the D League. I see no reason for Semaj to come back even if he is close to the same player as last year. John Wall wasn't a good shooter coming out of college and he's done alright.

[muskienick]

Coming back to school is usually a dumb move when you are most likely a first round pick. The guaranteed money is too much to pass up. And very rarely does anyone develop anything in college that he couldn't do in practice or the D League. I see no reason for Semaj to come back even if he is close to the same player as last year. John Wall wasn't a good shooter coming out of college and he's done alright.
I would absolutely love it if Semaj would return for his Junior year at Xavier. That being said, the weaknesses listed by DX in Semaj's game are very significant relative to the NBA game. It's obvious that he has not developed his outside shot as compared to where it was last year. Why should a pro team assume that he would do so between his sophomore and junior years without seeing some on-court proof?

If that were the only thing lacking in Semaj's game, I could see a team taking a first-round chance on him only if it had considerable depth in the backcourt. But he clearly overcompensates for his weak left hand on the dribble and his free throw shooting is worrisome to say the least. For a guy that will have to play the point in the NBA, he makes far too many mistakes during the relatively small amount of time he plays the point for Xavier and there will be precious little opportunity for him to eliminate those point guard weaknesses with both Brandon and Dee getting most of the minutes there.

Maybe with yet another highly regarded point guard coming in next year, Semaj will go pro if only because that would further reduce his opportunity to develop his point guard strengths at Xavier!?

[Juice]

I would absolutely love it if Semaj would return for his Junior year at Xavier. That being said, the weaknesses listed by DX in Semaj's game are very significant relative to the NBA game. It's obvious that he has not developed his outside shot as compared to where it was last year. Why should a pro team assume that he would do so between his sophomore and junior years without seeing some on-court proof?

If that were the only thing lacking in Semaj's game, I could see a team taking a first-round chance on him only if it had considerable depth in the backcourt. But he clearly overcompensates for his weak left hand on the dribble and his free throw shooting is worrisome to say the least. For a guy that will have to play the point in the NBA, he makes far too many mistakes during the relatively small amount of time he plays the point for Xavier and there will be precious little opportunity for him to eliminate those point guard weaknesses with both Brandon and Dee getting most of the minutes there.

Maybe with yet another highly regarded point guard coming in next year, Semaj will go pro if only because that would further reduce his opportunity to develop his point guard strengths at Xavier!?

But you act like every player doesnt't have weaknesses. Also, draft express does report those weaknesses while still projecting him as a first round pick. NBA teams will draft on athleticism and height over polish most of the time.

[ammtd34]

Every player has weaknesses. Semaj's is outside shooting. Rajon Rondo is a career 62% FT shooter and 24% 3 pt shooter.

6'3" PGs with elite athleticism are extremely rare. He'll be drafted because of what his strengths already are.

[XU-PA]

that is an amazing look at Semaj. so many facets to his game, so many talents. it shows what a special player this man is, what a future he has, and how lucky we are to have him in the musketeer uniform

[Charlesbt4]

Every player has weaknesses. Semaj's is outside shooting. Rajon Rondo is a career 62% FT shooter and 24% 3 pt shooter.

6'3" PGs with elite athleticism are extremely rare. He'll be drafted because of what his strengths already are.

Please, don't compare Christon to Rondo. It isn't fair to Christon. Christon very well may get drafted in the first round, but he isn't 1/10th the caliber of point guard that Rondo is or was in college.

[ammtd34]

Please, don't compare Christon to Rondo. It isn't fair to Christon. Christon very well may get drafted in the first round, but he isn't 1/10th the caliber of point guard that Rondo is or was in college.

I didn't compare them. I compared their shooting percentages, which are similar. The point being that being a great shooter isn't necessary if you have other things that most people don't.

[Smails]

Please, don't compare Christon to Rondo. It isn't fair to Christon. Christon very well may get drafted in the first round, but he isn't 1/10th the caliber of point guard that Rondo is or was in college.

I'm curious as to what you are basing this off of? It certainly can't be statistically based, because Christon's numbers are pretty much even with Rondo's freshman year with the exception of scoring, where Semaj is clearly more accomplished.

[paulxu]

Please, don't compare Christon to Rondo. It isn't fair to Christon. Christon very well may get drafted in the first round, but he isn't 1/10th the caliber of point guard that Rondo is or was in college.

Why not?

Rondo freshman year at KY:
8.1 Pts., 3.5 Asts.

Christon freshman year at XU:
15.2 Pts., 4.6 Asts.

[More Cowbell]

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct/position/point-guards

There are plenty of poor shooting point guards. Michael Carter Williams shot 29% from 3 and 69% from the line his sophomore year. It might help him make the jump from good to great, but you don't have to shoot a three to facilitate scoring.

[XUFan09]

I think people recall Rondo as some ultra-elite college player because of what he has become at the NBA level. He wasn't. In his freshman year, he was a good college player with a serious penchant for stealing, while Semaj was a good college player with a strong ability to finish at the rim. Rondo was a really good college player in his sophomore year, but then, if Semaj doesn't disappoint, he looks to be a really good college player in his sophomore year too.

[SC in DC]

If he knows he's a first round pick--he goes. If not, he should stay--and that's the good news/bad news situation given our scholly situation. Lots of time to see how it plays out. Lot depends on who else is looking good for the draft. Right now there are probably 4-5 freshmen that go in top 6-7 plus Smart from OK State leaving SC to be one of the remaining best 24 available--college and overseas. Possible, but in my mind he has to show some improvement in certain areas of his game. But he is young enough still to have the "potential" pro scouts like. So how he does in BE this year will be a big factor.

[XU3232]

As much I love Semaj, I really hope he leaves after this year. We need to start getting some players to leave early for the NBA on a consistent basis so that we can keep the recruitng going strong and bring in elite talent to show that we can have them on the fast track to the NBA just like all of the other powerhouses.

[muskienick]

But you act like every player doesnt't have weaknesses. Also, draft express does report those weaknesses while still projecting him as a first round pick. NBA teams will draft on athleticism and height over polish most of the time.

What did I write in my posting that made you think that I "act like every player doesn't have weaknesses." I limited my discussion to Semaj and didn't compare him with anyone nor did I say that other potential draftees don't have weaknesses. I merely stated that the ones DX listed for Semaj were rather serious ones for a potential NBA point guard (which he would have to play). He may have to ride the pine for a couple of NBA seasons before he gets meaningful minutes if he continues to lack 3-point range, has trouble dribbling with his left hand, and can't sink at least 7 of every 10 free throws. If being wildly athletic was the main ticket to an NBA career, Romain Sato would likely be there now.

[ThrowDownDBrown]

Please, don't compare Christon to Rondo. It isn't fair to Christon. Christon very well may get drafted in the first round, but he isn't 1/10th the caliber of point guard that Rondo is or was in college.

GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
34 28 31.0 .482 .273 .571 6.1 4.9 2.0 0.1 11.2

All while leading a 13 loss UK team to a second round exit. Yeah Semaj definitely isn't 1/10th the caliber of Rondo's sophomore year....

[Juice]

What did I write in my posting that made you think that I "act like every player doesn't have weaknesses." I limited my discussion to Semaj and didn't compare him with anyone nor did I say that other potential draftees don't have weaknesses. I merely stated that the ones DX listed for Semaj were rather serious ones for a potential NBA point guard (which he would have to play). He may have to ride the pine for a couple of NBA seasons before he gets meaningful minutes if he continues to lack 3-point range, has trouble dribbling with his left hand, and can't sink at least 7 of every 10 free throws. If being wildly athletic was the main ticket to an NBA career, Romain Sato would likely be there now.

I would rather sit the bench and make millions while developing my game than be in college not getting paid and having go to class.

A number of posters have named other point guards who did not shoot well in college, i.e. John Wall, MCW, Rondo, etc. And so far they all have been fine.

And Romain Sato is 6'4'', which is at best average height for a SG in the NBA if not below average. Semaj is listed at 6'3''. That's the difference. And Semaj is a much better athlete and player than Romain Sato was.

[LA Muskie]

And Romain Sato is 6'4'', which is at best average height for a SG in the NBA if not below average. Semaj is listed at 6'3''. That's the difference. And Semaj is a much better athlete and player than Romain Sato was.
I love Semaj, but I don't think this is true. Sato was a freak athlete who could light it up from the outside AND jump out of the gym. He certainly had his own weaknesses, but his game was better suited to playing SG at the next level (principally because of the "S" in SG).

Semaj will play in the NBA. I personally think it will be next year. But a lot can and will happen between now and then to determine that.

[Xman95]

Coming back to school is usually a dumb move when you are most likely a first round pick. The guaranteed money is too much to pass up. And very rarely does anyone develop anything in college that he couldn't do in practice or the D League. I see no reason for Semaj to come back even if he is close to the same player as last year. John Wall wasn't a good shooter coming out of college and he's done alright.

Do you honestly think Semaj, as the player we saw last year, is the equal to John Wall? I remember when D.Brown was told he was a surefire 1st Rd pick...until he wasn't. If Semaj doesn't show improvement over last year - meaning he's stuck in neutral and NBA teams might fear that he won't/can't develop more - I don't know that he's a 1st Rd pick. And, if he would be, why didn't he just leave after last year?

[Xman95]

I love Semaj, but I don't think this is true. Sato was a freak athlete who could light it up from the outside AND jump out of the gym.

However, there is still a legitimate debate over whether he could do so off one foot AND two feet.

[xavierj]

Wait what Semaj hasnt improved as a shooter? He hasn't missed a 3 yet this year. Regardless of his weaknesses he is gone after this year unless he gets injured and the coaches know it. As for three point shooting that is a weakness for just about every NBA point guard. You can't teacha player to become a 6'3 freak athlete.

[Muskie]

Wait what Semaj hasnt improved as a shooter? He hasn't missed a 3 yet this year. Regardless of his weaknesses he is gone after this year unless he gets injured and the coaches know it. As for three point shooting that is a weakness for just about every NBA point guard. You can't teacha player to become a 6'3 freak athlete.

Has he taken a 3? I'd need to check the stats to know for sure.

[xavierj]

Has he taken a 3? I'd need to check the stats to know for sure.

I was kidding. He is 1 for 1.

[Juice]

Do you honestly think Semaj, as the player we saw last year, is the equal to John Wall? I remember when D.Brown was told he was a surefire 1st Rd pick...until he wasn't. If Semaj doesn't show improvement over last year - meaning he's stuck in neutral and NBA teams might fear that he won't/can't develop more - I don't know that he's a 1st Rd pick. And, if he would be, why didn't he just leave after last year?

No I don't but they play similar styles, both have good athleticism and size for position, and they both struggled with their shot. Semaj is not close to Wall's level but it would be dumb for him to return to school. GET PAID.

[Cincypunk.org]

I feel like Semaj's finishing skills this year have improved over last year and that is saying something. Dude can finish like Jordan Crawford.

[xu82]

I haven't looked up any stats (there's always someone to do that, seemingly), but it seems more that he's not willing to TRY anything outside of an 8 foot floater. How many true jumpers has he tried? It seems he knows he can get to the rim at will so why attempt from farther out. And he CAN get to the rim. I'd like to see his FT % go up (it's not a bad motion which gives me hope) and keep the D honest as we get to more competitive games by making a few jumpers. Confidence is under rated.

[waggy]

Nothing like an armchair internet coach, but I bet his average would go way up if he would just get in the routine of bending his knees.

[Xman95]

No I don't but they play similar styles, both have good athleticism and size for position, and they both struggled with their shot. Semaj is not close to Wall's level but it would be dumb for him to return to school. GET PAID.

I agree that if he's going to be a first round pick that he should go. I just don't think he'll be a first rounder if he doesn't show improvement over last year. If he finishes this year as basically the same player we saw last year, I don't see him going in the first round. Now, if he shows an improved jumper, better decisions, an improved left, etc., then the first round is obviously in play and he would be silly not to take the money.

[Milhouse]

Everyone's criticizing his jump shot....

He hasn't had to take a jump shot really. He's making the best possible plays not throwing up dumb shots (ala moog), he's shooting like 65% FG.

I personally think he's gone. He hasn't even really had to try yet. Wait until we see him take over a game.