Reds/BP

[XU-PA]

Is there really a trade in the works? Are the Reds getting ready to trade Phillips? Could they really trade away a potential hall of fame player in his prime?

http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/18/reds-intend-to-trade-brandon-phillips/
Brings that old saying to mind,, you know about history repeating itself? Frank Robinson's ears must be burning right now.

[GoMuskies]

I don't think DatDude is either a Hall of Famer or in his prime.

[bleedXblue]

I don't think DatDude is either a Hall of Famer or in his prime.

Totally agree.

I think Phillips is showing some wear and his best days might be behind him.

[Juice]

Is there really a trade in the works? Are the Reds getting ready to trade Phillips? Could they really trade away a potential hall of fame player in his prime?

http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/18/reds-intend-to-trade-brandon-phillips/
Brings that old saying to mind,, you know about history repeating itself? Frank Robinson's ears must be burning right now.

You're comparing Brandon Phillips to Frank Robinson? Those two aren't even in the same discussion.


Brian Kenny ‏@MrBrianKenny 17 Oct
BPhillips this yr among 2b:
13th in WAR, 17th in wRC+..
Top 15 2b at best, owed $50 mill thru age 36. Good luck moving that.

That tweet from Brian Kenny summarizes the situation. If he gets moved, the Reds are either eating some of that money or are going to have to take on a similar bad contract, i.e. Dan Uggla.

[Xavgrad08]

Dan Uggla has been on the decline the past couple of seasons. I would be apprehensive for the Reds to take him.

[GoMuskies]

Dan Uggla has been on the decline the past couple of seasons.

You are being far too kind. Pretty amazing the Bravos were as good as they were this year while rolling BJ Upton and Dan Uggla out there most nights.

[Juice]

Dan Uggla has been on the decline the past couple of seasons. I would be apprehensive for the Reds to take him.

I completely agree but it would be him plus a top prospect from the Braves. His contract has 2 years left and not 4 years like BP's. And the rumor is that the Reds are interested in the Cuban infielder, Alexander Guerrero.

Uggla's 2013 was awful but his career numbers are much better than BP's. Granted his defense is no where close to BP's.

[nuts4xu]

I completely agree but it would be him plus a top prospect from the Braves. His contract has 2 years left and not 4 years like BP's. And the rumor is that the Reds are interested in the Cuban infielder, Alexander Guerrero.

Uggla's 2013 was awful but his career numbers are much better than BP's. Granted his defense is no where close to BP's.

It won't do the reds any good to trade BP for Uggla. If they can trade BP, they need to do so for a salary dump. The reds could take that $50 million over the next 4 years and throw it at Choo, who will be an even tougher guy to replace.

[BandAid]

Yankees may be in the market if Cano goes elsewhere, although there isn't much the Yankees have that anyone wants

[waggy]

I have a question as just a casual fan... Isn't BP well above average at his position? Assuming that's the case, it's really his contract that's the problem?

[Juice]

It won't do the reds any good to trade BP for Uggla. If they can trade BP, they need to do so for a salary dump. The reds could take that $50 million over the next 4 years and throw it at Choo, who will be an even tougher guy to replace.

It's a salary dump in that they would only be paying Uggla for two years and not for the next four years with BP. They make about the same. And the Reds would gain a top prospect in the process. It makes sense but I don't know if I would do it depending on the prospect.

[Juice]

I have a question as just a casual fan... Isn't BP well above average at his position? Assuming that's the case, it's really his contract that's the problem?


Brian Kenny ‏@MrBrianKenny 17 Oct
BPhillips this yr among 2b:
13th in WAR, 17th in wRC+..
Top 15 2b at best, owed $50 mill thru age 36. Good luck moving that.

He's about average or slightly above. But he's 32 so it's most likely going to get worse. His value is mostly in his defense and that goes very quickly with age.

[XUFan09]

He's about average or slightly above. But he's 32 so it's most likely going to get worse. His value is mostly in his defense and that goes very quickly with age.

See: Carlos Beltran, former Gold Glove centerfielder, now relegated to right field.

[Fireball]

BP is just about average at his position, which isn't a bad thing. I don't mind the Reds considering trading him, but if they do, they had better get someone who is just about as good as Brandon is. The window for the Reds to compete for playoff spots isn't going to be open long. That young pitching is going to price itself out of Cincinnati pretty quickly in the next couple of years, and most of or top prospects have been traded away.

If they are going to get rid of BP, you can't replace him with Dan Uggla.

Sent from my GT-P7510 using Tapatalk

[Charlesbt4]

I am a huge fan of Brandon Phillips. However, you cannot act the way he acted this season, while at the same time failing to produce, and not expect to be traded given his contract and the expectations associated therewith.

If the Cincinnati Reds do what I think they should do, they'll trade Phillips and Bailey, and not re-sign Arroyo. They'll re-sign Choo, sign Alex Guerrero, and move Chapman into the rotation, while starting Choo in left field and Hamilton in center field. This improves your outfield defense, second base defense, and potentially the quality of your starting rotation, while not greatly impacting the bullpen. Additionally, it also does not greatly impact the overall payroll.

There are a number of things that I am certain of, however:

(1) Brandon Phillips will be traded; and ...
(2) Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman will be traded. If Chapman agrees to move into the starting rotation, then Bailey is traded. If Chapman refuses, then he'll be the one traded.

[Juice]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/dodgers-to-sign-alexander-guerrero.html

Welp, it's being reported that the Cuban free agent Alex Guerrero is signing with the Dodgers, which is bad for the Reds if they are truly trying to shop BP. For one, the Dodgers are a team who had a need at 2b who could have taken on the contract. And two, Guerrero was being mentioned as a possible replacement for BP.

[Charlesbt4]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/dodgers-to-sign-alexander-guerrero.html

Welp, it's being reported that the Cuban free agent Alex Guerrero is signing with the Dodgers, which is bad for the Reds if they are truly trying to shop BP. For one, the Dodgers are a team who had a need at 2b who could have taken on the contract. And two, Guerrero was being mentioned as a possible replacement for BP.

Amen. At some point, Walt Jocketty's ability to perform the role of general manager needs to be examined. He has routinely missed out on opportunities to improve this franchise during his tenure. Unless they are going to pursue Robinson Cano, which they aren't, Guerrero presented the best possible replacement for Phillips at second base, and would have come at a reasonable price. Jocketty could have traded Phillips for high-level prospects, while agreeing to pay a significant portion of his salary ($5-6 million). At the same time, they could have signed Guerrero. Overall, the amount the team spends on a second baseman would have risen marginally, if at all, and they would have gotten a replacement that is six years younger and an upgrade offensively. At the same time, they would have improved their farm system.

The man, quite frankly, is asleep at the wheel.

[DoubleD86]

Amen. At some point, Walt Jocketty's ability to perform the role of general manager needs to be examined. He has routinely missed out on opportunities to improve this franchise during his tenure. Unless they are going to pursue Robinson Cano, which they aren't, Guerrero presented the best possible replacement for Phillips at second base, and would have come at a reasonable price. Jocketty could have traded Phillips for high-level prospects, while agreeing to pay a significant portion of his salary ($5-6 million). At the same time, they could have signed Guerrero. Overall, the amount the team spends on a second baseman would have risen marginally, if at all, and they would have gotten a replacement that is six years younger and an upgrade offensively. At the same time, they would have improved their farm system.

The man, quite frankly, is asleep at the wheel.

I think this is an incredibly reactionary and unfair summary of Jocketty. Jocketty is also the guy who brought in Choo and Chapman and made the great deal for Mat Latos. Yes, he missed out on Guerrero to a team who has much deeper pockets and willing to pay a guy some think will be average at best. That doesn't mean he needs his position with the team needs to be examined, holy overreaction Batman! There are still possible targets for Phillips (if Jocketty wants to move him) and possible replacements out there. What if Jocketty is able to move one of Bailey/Leake/Chapman to Texas and get a guy like Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus? It is way to early to decide he has ruined the opportunity to improve 2B.

The other thing fans never seem to realize, Jocketty doesn't get to just say "I want this to happen" and poof, it happens. What if Jocketty offered exactly what the Dodgers did, but Guerrero decided he wanted to play for the Dodgers for any number of reasons (big city, big market, fellow Cuban in Puig, favorite color is blue, etc.)? Then how is it possibly a failure by Jocketty?

Also, I love the idea that he just "could have traded Phillips for high-level prospects." Do you know how hard it is to trade for high-level prospects? Especially using a 32 year old 2B with a large a 4 year contract attached? Again, it is a two-way street and Jocketty doesn't get to just decide he wants to do it so it's done.

[XU 87]

The man, quite frankly, is asleep at the wheel.

Huh? Before Jocketty, the Reds had been to the playoffs a total of zero times in the previous 13 years. I think the team had 7 losing seasons in a row. After Jocketty the team has been to the playoffs 3 out of 6 his years, and one losing season includes the year he took over at the start of the 2008 season.

I remember many complaining about the Latos trade. How did that work out? The Padres got a bunch of mediocre to bad players, most of whom had no future in the Reds organization, and the Reds have a young, "cheap", top flight pitcher.

[Charlesbt4]

I think this is an incredibly reactionary and unfair summary of Jocketty. Jocketty is also the guy who brought in Choo and Chapman and made the great deal for Mat Latos. Yes, he missed out on Guerrero to a team who has much deeper pockets and willing to pay a guy some think will be average at best. That doesn't mean he needs his position with the team needs to be examined, holy overreaction Batman! There are still possible targets for Phillips (if Jocketty wants to move him) and possible replacements out there. What if Jocketty is able to move one of Bailey/Leake/Chapman to Texas and get a guy like Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus? It is way to early to decide he has ruined the opportunity to improve 2B.

The other thing fans never seem to realize, Jocketty doesn't get to just say "I want this to happen" and poof, it happens. What if Jocketty offered exactly what the Dodgers did, but Guerrero decided he wanted to play for the Dodgers for any number of reasons (big city, big market, fellow Cuban in Puig, favorite color is blue, etc.)? Then how is it possibly a failure by Jocketty?

Also, I love the idea that he just "could have traded Phillips for high-level prospects." Do you know how hard it is to trade for high-level prospects? Especially using a 32 year old 2B with a large a 4 year contract attached? Again, it is a two-way street and Jocketty doesn't get to just decide he wants to do it so it's done.

Actually, I don't believe it to be reactionary at all. Indeed, the deals for Choo and Latos have been positive. However, there have also been plenty of simply dreadful deals made by Jocketty. Off the top of my head, they include contracts and/or trades for Phillips, Ludwick, Madson, Chapman, Broxton, and Marshall. Off of that list, the team has committed tens of millions of dollars to four different players to do the most overrated thing in baseball - close games. Yes. The Cincinnati Reds have had four different players, whom were signed as closers, on the roster since 2012.

[XU 87]

While I agree that closing is overrated, Marshall was not signed to be a closer. He initially closed only after Madson got hurt. Chapman was not initially signed to be a closer; it just ended up that way. Broxton was signed to be a closer with the anticipation that Chapman would start.

As far as deals go, Ludwick was signed to a two year deal after having a pretty good season. Do you think the Reds could have found someone better, at that point in time, for that money? The Marshall trade has worked out well for the Reds. I don't blame Jocketty for Marshall having arm problems this year.

You don't think the Chapman deal has worked out?

Madson got hurt. You want to blame Jocketty for that?

But some deals work. Some don't. That's baseball. The great Bob Howsam traded Tony Perez and Will McEnaney for Woody Fryman and Dale Murray. You want to argue that he sucked as a GM because that deal didn't work out?

The bottom line is that the Reds have been successful during Jocketty's tenure and they weren't successful prior to that. I don't know how you argue with that. As my son, XU 2023, just pointed out, "The Reds stunk before he got here and now they're pretty good."

[Juice]

Actually, I don't believe it to be reactionary at all. Indeed, the deals for Choo and Latos have been positive. However, there have also been plenty of simply dreadful deals made by Jocketty. Off the top of my head, they include contracts and/or trades for Phillips, Ludwick, Madson, Chapman, Broxton, and Marshall. Off of that list, the team has committed tens of millions of dollars to four different players to do the most overrated thing in baseball - close games. Yes. The Cincinnati Reds have had four different players, whom were signed as closers, on the roster since 2012.

The Phillips and Broxton deals were pretty dumb but the other deals you name are more of a case of hindsight being 20/20.