The Final Weekend of the Regular Season!

[XUFan09]

So the regular season comes down to this. Here are the storylines, as I understand them, for the last three games. Here (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/playoff-tiebreaker-rules?ymd=20130904&content_id=59527184&vkey=news_mlb)are the tiebreaker rules as a potential reference. Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/head2head.shtml)you can look up head-to-head records.

AL Division Winners

- The Red Sox (@Baltimore) have a magic number of 1 for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Basically, the only way the A's can get homefield advantage is by finishing a game ahead of the Red Sox. The Tigers can only get there by tying the Red Sox. Both scenarios require the Red Sox to lose their last three against the Phillies while the A's or the Tigers sweep their respective opponents. That's a bit unlikely..
- The Tigers (@Miami) are only one game behind the Athletics (@Seattle) for the #2 seed, but the A's have the head-to-head advantage for the tiebreaker. So, the Athletics have a magic number of 2 for ALDS homefield advantage.

AL Wild Card Race

- The Rays (@Toronto) have a magic number of 2 for a Wild Card spot and a magic number of 3 for homefield advantage in the Wild Card playoff game. They could still conceivably miss the playoffs, especially with the other contenders' streaking finishes.
- The Indians (@Minnesota) have a magic number of 3 for a Wild Card spot. For WC homefield advantage, though, they would have to finish ahead of the Rays in the standings, for a magic number of 5.
- The Rangers (vs. Anaheim) are under serious pressure after Cleveland narrowly avoided the ninth-inning collapse tonight. If they manage to tie Cleveland, the two teams would have a one-game playoff in Cleveland (due to head-to-head results) in order to decide who plays in the Wild Card playoff game. Like I said, though, the Rangers could still conceivably catch the Rays.

NL Division Winners

- With their win, the Braves (vs. Philadelphia) just tied the Cardinals (vs. Chicago) for the best record in the NL. They hold the head-to-head matchup, though, so their magic number is 3. Sweep the Phillies and they'll get to face the Wild Card winner (who will have just used their ace in the single-elimination game). Falter once while the Cardinals could potentially sweep the Cubs, and they lose that opportunity.
- With the Dodgers' (vs. Colorado) loss minutes ago, the #2 seed is practically unattainable. They'll be headed to St. Louis or Atlanta for the beginning of the NLDS. This loss also drops them into a tie with Pittsburgh (with whom they own the head-to-head) and puts them just one game back of Cincinnati (with whom they don't), which could have NLCS implications. If either of these teams puts a game on LA in the final three, they will have homefield advantage in the NLCS if facing the Dodgers. I know, it sounds unlikely, but really, Dodgers vs. Wild Card winner is one of only four scenarios.

NL Wild Card Race

- It's not really a "race," as no other teams are left
- Homefield advantage for the Wild Card game is relatively simple. Win this last head-to-head series and gain homefield advantage. If the Pirates win, they will simply have the better record. If the Reds sweep, they will. If the Reds win two out of three, they will tie the Pirates but will own the tiebreaker (having improved in the head-to-head matchup from 8-8 to 10-9).

[Jumpy]

Good stuff. While it looks on the surface that everything is locked up for all the playoff teams in terms of getting in, there is still a lot on the line in terms of matchups and seeding. It will be fun to watch it all play out.

[bourbonman]

Good stuff. While it looks on the surface that everything is locked up for all the playoff teams in terms of getting in, there is still a lot on the line in terms of match ups and seeding. It will be fun to watch it all play out.

Watching it play out is always fun and why I love this time of year. Of course the final night of the 2011 season may never be matched again in any sport. So many scenarios all ending within a couple of hours of each other. Good luck to all with a team still in the hunt (myself the Cards AND Red Sox). Hope the off-season isn't too long for those who don't (spring ball is only about 5 months away).

[XUFan09]

Good stuff. While it looks on the surface that everything is locked up for all the playoff teams in terms of getting in, there is still a lot on the line in terms of matchups and seeding. It will be fun to watch it all play out.

The Texas Rangers might disagree with this assessment lol. And Cleveland Indians fans are probably a little nervous at the potential for their team to choke.

[XUFan09]

My predictions:

- The AL division winners finish in their current order of Boston, Oakland, and Detroit.
- The Rangers don't catch the Indians, as they've lost all momentum in September.
- The Cardinals can't gain a game on the Braves. I think the Phillies will steal a game, but I also think the Cubs will try to make things tough for their rival and the Cards will end up taking only 2 of 3. Braves and Cards tie for best NL record, but Braves take the #1 seed.
- For the Reds vs. Pirates series, it's a toss-up, so I'll just go with the home team.

For the NL playoffs:
- Braves don't make it past the first round. By every measure I've found, they have the weakest schedule in baseball and yet only have four games on the second Wild Card team. Their offense is abysmal, and good pitching will just destroy it, whether that's the Dodgers, the Reds, or the Pirates. I love that one Braves fan I came across emphasized the importance of the #1 seed, because it was pretty much a "free ticket" the NLCS. Uh uh, your team is overrated.
- Based off this prediction, at least one NL Central team will make it to the NLCS and maybe two. If the Cards get the #1 seed, one and only one team is guaranteed. If the Braves get the #1 seed, the Reds or Pirates will beat them (and the Cards have a good chance of beating the Dodgers.

[usfldan]

So the regular season comes down to this. Here are the storylines, as I understand them, for the last three games. Here (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/playoff-tiebreaker-rules?ymd=20130904&content_id=59527184&vkey=news_mlb)are the tiebreaker rules as a potential reference. Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/head2head.shtml)you can look up head-to-head records.
...
If either of these teams puts a game on LA in the final three, they will have homefield advantage in the NLCS if facing the Dodgers. I know, it sounds unlikely, but really, Dodgers vs. Wild Card winner is one of only four scenarios.



I'm not sure this is the case. This would run against MLB's emphasis on winning the division. I kind of skimmed the link above, but all those tie-breakers seemed the address divisional ties and seeding for the post-season. The only reference I can find about it was in Wikipedia (take that for what it's worth) that said wild cards can't have home field for the LCS. Then again, a wild card could have home field advantage if it made the World Series, so maybe I'm wrong. I wouldn't mind having the Reds find out.

[XUFan09]

I'm not sure this is the case. This would run against MLB's emphasis on winning the division. I kind of skimmed the link above, but all those tie-breakers seemed the address divisional ties and seeding for the post-season. The only reference I can find about it was in Wikipedia (take that for what it's worth) that said wild cards can't have home field for the LCS. Then again, a wild card could have home field advantage if it made the World Series, so maybe I'm wrong. I wouldn't mind having the Reds find out.

You might be right. I guess we'll find out if it happens. Regardless, I also want it to happen for the sake of NL Central pride. The division was considered the weakest in baseball for so many years (see: Cardinals, 2006 division champions). Because of that, it's nice to see the division representing so well.

[XUFan09]

- The Cardinals won to win the division championship and clinch the #2 seed, but the Braves won a pitchers' duel to stay even, so the Cards still need to pick up a game on them in the final two days for homefield advantage.

- The Pirates won the series opener against the Reds, and they now stand one game away from clinching homefield advantage. The Reds will have to win the last two.

- One AL seed will be clinched tonight. The Red Sox won (convincingly) but I must have miscalculated the tiebreaker with them and the Athletics. Their head-to-head was a tie, and I must have added up the intradivision records incorrectly. The magic number was actually 2, and now it's 1 (with Oakland still playing). The Tigers lost, bringing the Athletics' magic number for the #2 seed down to 1. So, if the Athletics win (leading 6-2 @Seattle in the bottom of the 7th), they clinch that seed. If they lose, Boston clinches the #1 seed, and Detroit still has an outside chance of catching the A's.

- The most interesting story is the tightening of the Wild Card Race. I did say that the Rays could still conceivably be caught by the Rangers and miss out on the postseason entirely, and now that's become more plausible, as they dropped a game to the Bluejays while Cleveland and Texas both won. Tampa Bay and Cleveland are now tied, though the Rays still hold the tiebreaker for WC homefield advantage, and Texas is just one game back. Here's the link (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/playoff-tiebreaker-rules?ymd=20130904&content_id=59527184&vkey=news_mlb) for tiebreaker rules, if it comes down to a three-way tie for the two Wild Card spots!

[XUFan09]

Sidenote: The Dodgers are currently routing the Rockies 11-0. They are locked into that #3 seed now, so it's just interesting seeing a playoff team play meaningless games to finish the season. Their pitching rotation should be well set up though for the NLDS!

[X-band '01]

Yep - as Team A (best record among the 3), the Indians get to host the Rays for the first WC game. Loser of that game has to go to Texas for the second WC spot.

The Rangers still have less margin for error; both the Indians and Rays have a magic number of 2 to clinch a postseason bid.

[XUFan09]

Congratulations to the Pirates on homefield advantage. I guess tomorrow's game is technically meaningless, though no team wants to be swept.

Cardinals win again and are now rooting for the Phillies to steal a game on the Braves. Either way, NL homefield advantage will come down to Game 162.

With the Athletics' loss, the Red Sox have clinched AL homefield advantage.

The AL Wild Card race has really turned upside down. The Rays, possessors of a crucial one-game lead over Cleveland and a significant two-game lead over Texas just before the last weekend of the season, have dropped two straight while the Rangers and Indians have won two straight. If Cleveland wins tomorrow, they are the first Wild Card. At worst, Cleveland will play in the tiebreaker, and if I'm interpreting the rules correctly, they would get to choose to not play in the one-game playoff in that scenario, instead hosting the winner in the Wild Card Playoff.

In the event that Cleveland loses tomorrow:
- If the Rays lose but the Rangers win, the Indians are the 1st Wild Card.
- If the Rays win but the Rangers lose, the Rays are the 1st Wild Card.

[XUFan09]

Braves lose! Now, either a Cardinals win or a Braves loss tomorrow will secure homefield advantage.

The bigger story tomorrow, however, is coming out of Toronto and Arlington, TX, where the Rays and Rangers will be playing for their playoff lives. If they both win or they both lose, they'll play each other for the second Wild Card, regardless of what Cleveland does tomorrow.

Cleveland's game tomorrow is just to ensure homefield advantage for the Wild Card game, but they should have that in every scenario except the combination of Indians loss, Rangers loss, and Rays win.

Times tomorrow for meaningful games: (Eastern Standard Time):
Tampa Bay at Toronto, 1:07
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia, 1:35
Cleveland at Minnesota, 2:10
Texas vs. Los Angeles-Anaheim, 3:05
St. Louis vs. Chicago, 2:15

[X-band '01]

Congratulations to the Pirates on homefield advantage. I guess tomorrow's game is technically meaningless, though no team wants to be swept.

Cardinals win again and are now rooting for the Phillies to steal a game on the Braves. Either way, NL homefield advantage will come down to Game 162.

With the Athletics' loss, the Red Sox have clinched AL homefield advantage.

The AL Wild Card race has really turned upside down. The Rays, possessors of a crucial one-game lead over Cleveland and a significant two-game lead over Texas just before the last weekend of the season, have dropped two straight while the Rangers and Indians have won two straight. If Cleveland wins tomorrow, they are the first Wild Card. At worst, Cleveland will play in the tiebreaker, and if I'm interpreting the rules correctly, they would get to choose to not play in the one-game playoff in that scenario, instead hosting the winner in the Wild Card Playoff.

In the event that Cleveland loses tomorrow:
- If the Rays lose but the Rangers win, the Indians are the 1st Wild Card.
- If the Rays win but the Rangers lose, the Rays are the 1st Wild Card.

If the AL has a 3-way tie, then Cleveland hosts the Rays for the 1st Wild Card (and homefield in the WC game). Loser goes to Texas to play for the 2nd Wild Card. Since the Indians had the best record between those 3 teams, they're assured of at least 2 games and homefield for 1 game. The Rays opted for the extra game instead of homefield for the 2nd game.

[XUFan09]

Yay, Cardinals clinch homefield through the NLCS! I don't know who I'd really prefer they face in the NLDS between the Reds and the Pirates. An NL Central team playing for a World Series berth is now guaranteed.

I thought the Rays were going to choke in that game, but they held on to face the Rangers in the tiebreaker.

Postseason baseball, here we come!