Why the Big East Will Be Better than the A10

[XUFan09]

Here's my weekly blog post (http://fromstaaktomack.wordpress.com/2013/03/27/why-the-big-east-is-better-than-the-a10-since-apparently-thats-a-debate/). There was an argument on both forums as to whether the Big East was really much of an upgrade over the Atlantic 10 as it stands now.

Yes, yes, it is. All the same, I took the time to show by historical performance exactly how big the improvement is.

As I said a week ago, I will be posting something every Tuesday for those who are interested. Technically, it's Wednesday now, but as I haven't gone to bed yet, I'm still calling it Tuesday.

[OTRMUSKIE]

You don't even need to do research about this. It's better because you don't have bottom feeders. The Mountain West was the #1 conference this year because they only had 9 teams. Now they don't have 9 nationally know teams but they have 9 decent teams. The Big East will only have one Fordham in DePaul. The Big East now will have 9 very good to great basketball programs. The A10 will have a mediocre Dayton program, a lightning in a bottle LaSalle program which will suck for many years to come. They will have a VCU program that will become the new Xavier If Shaka stays. St. Joes will be okay but never great. Fordham, Duquesne, Richmond, GM, GW will have one good year every decade. UMess is leaving along with Charlotte, Temple and soon to be St Louis. The A10 will be a resurrected Horizon league. The Big East will be the best non-football school in the nation.

[DC Muskie]

Some of these people are just naturally turning toward pessimism, which is an understandable coping mechanism with sports, especially if you are a native of Cleveland or something like that.

I can completely relate.

Boom.

[xu95]

You don't even need to do research about this. It's better because you don't have bottom feeders. The Mountain West was the #1 conference this year because they only had 9 teams. Now they don't have 9 nationally know teams but they have 9 decent teams. The Big East will only have one Fordham in DePaul. The Big East now will have 9 very good to great basketball programs. The A10 will have a mediocre Dayton program, a lightning in a bottle LaSalle program which will suck for many years to come. They will have a VCU program that will become the new Xavier If Shaka stays. St. Joes will be okay but never great. Fordham, Duquesne, Richmond, GM, GW will have one good year every decade. UMess is leaving along with Charlotte, Temple and soon to be St Louis. The A10 will be a resurrected Horizon league. The Big East will be the best non-football school in the nation.

While DePaul is bad, they aren't even close to Fordham bad.

[XUFan09]

While DePaul is bad, they aren't even close to Fordham bad.

Yup. One of the things I show in the post.

OTR, part of the reason I did the post, as I explain in the very first paragraph, was to squash the foolish claims of those who think it won't be a big upgrade. Also, it's not just the bottom feeders; it's also the top. Xavier and Butler are the 4th and 5th best programs in the new conference.

[Masterofreality]

Some of these people are just naturally turning toward pessimism, which is an understandable coping mechanism with sports, especially if you are a native of Cleveland or something like that.

I can completely relate.

Boom.

Some of us are not pessimistic, but have developed Crocodile thick skin. Tough minds make tough players.

We'll be fine.

[Masterofreality]

Some of these people are just naturally turning toward pessimism, which is an understandable coping mechanism with sports, especially if you are a native of Cleveland or something like that.

I can completely relate.

Boom.

Some of us are not pessimistic, but have developed Crocodile thick skin. Tough minds make tough players.

We'll be fine.

[Mrs. Garrett]

While DePaul is bad, they aren't even close to Fordham bad.

They're pretty close and going nowhere fast unless there is a major shake up in their athletic administration. Their past two coaching hires have been miserable. All this lies with the AD who is a Title IX Queen and has little interest in the success of the men's programs.
Their facilities are a joke - they play 15 miles off campus which can be a two hour drive depending on Chicago traffic. As someone who grew up a DePAul fan before heading to Xavier, there is little to be excited about with this program.

[DC Muskie]

They're pretty close and going nowhere fast unless there is a major shake up in their athletic administration. Their past two coaching hires have been miserable.

Two coaches I might add, had pretty good success in the A10.

[XUFan09]

They're pretty close and going nowhere fast unless there is a major shake up in their athletic administration. Their past two coaching hires have been miserable. All this lies with the AD who is a Title IX Queen and has little interest in the success of the men's programs.
Their facilities are a joke - they play 15 miles off campus which can be a two hour drive depending on Chicago traffic. As someone who grew up a DePAul fan before heading to Xavier, there is little to be excited about with this program.

I agree with everything except the bolded part. Starting with the most recent year, here's how the two teams placed in the Kenpom rankings for the last eleven seasons:

DePaul
165, 144, 202, 172, 198, 95, 46, 82, 62, 52, 71
Fordham
252, 273, 292, 307, 317, 140, 138, 126, 170, 253, 251

Clearly, both are pretty terrible. But there are degrees of terrible. Fordham has spent more years outside the top 250 than DePaul has spent outside the top 100. DePaul's mean and median rankings are 95th and 117th, whereas Fordham's are 229th and 252nd. Ignore those first six years of Kenpom rankings (2003-2008), since they clearly benefit DePaul, and just look at the last five years. DePaul's mean ranking drops to 176th, but Fordham's mean is worse too, at 288th. Fordham is just on its own separate level of bad basketball in the comparisons between these two conferences.

[Mrs. Garrett]

I agree with everything except the bolded part. Starting with the most recent year, here's how the two teams placed in the Kenpom rankings for the last eleven seasons:

DePaul
165, 144, 202, 172, 198, 95, 46, 82, 62, 52, 71
Fordham
252, 273, 292, 307, 317, 140, 138, 126, 170, 253, 251

Clearly, both are pretty terrible. But there are degrees of terrible. Fordham has spent more years outside the top 250 than DePaul has spent outside the top 100. DePaul's mean and median rankings are 95th and 117th, whereas Fordham's are 229th and 252nd. Ignore those first six years of Kenpom rankings (2003-2008), since they clearly benefit DePaul, and just look at the last five years. DePaul's mean ranking drops to 176th, but Fordham's mean is worse too, at 288th. Fordham is just on its own separate level of bad basketball in the comparisons between these two conferences.

You clearly haven't watched any DePaul basketball. Forget that statistics and put the two teams on the court for a best of 7 series. I guarantee you these are close games. And DePaul probably gets a boost in this ranking solely for playing a Big East schedule.

You'll soon see there is very little difference in the two schools when they are in the same conference as X.

[XUFan09]

You clearly haven't watched any DePaul basketball. Forget that statistics and put the two teams on the court for a best of 7 series. I guarantee you these are close games. And DePaul probably gets a boost in this ranking solely for playing a Big East schedule.

You'll soon see there is very little difference in the two schools when they are in the same conference as X.

No, I have watched some DePaul basketball and it was painful. I'm not saying they're not bad, because they are definitely bad. Recruiting-wise DePaul would get a boost from the Big East, but that just means they have the better players out there in the first place. Because Kenpom statistics take into account marigin of victory, though, getting beat up by a bunch of Big East teams doesn't help them like it might with the RPI. With RPI, losing by 8 and losing by 20 to a top 50 team aren't any different. With Kenpom, that's a big difference.

Your disappointment in DePaul from being a fan might be tinging your perception of the two teams. Fordham hasn't really disappointed you, other than pulling down Xavier's SOS.

[Mrs. Garrett]

No, I have watched some DePaul basketball and it was painful. I'm not saying they're not bad, because they are definitely bad. Recruiting-wise DePaul would get a boost from the Big East, but that just means they have the better players out there in the first place. Because Kenpom statistics take into account marigin of victory, though, getting beat up by a bunch of Big East teams doesn't help them like it might with the RPI. With RPI, losing by 8 and losing by 20 to a top 50 team aren't any different. With Kenpom, that's a big difference.

Your disappointment in DePaul from being a fan might be tinging your perception of the two teams. Fordham hasn't really disappointed you, other than pulling down Xavier's SOS.

DePAul does not have Big East talent on their roster. They have gotten no recruiting boost from playing in the Big East. They can't even get the best players from their own back yard.

[XUFan09]

DePAul does not have Big East talent on their roster. They have gotten no recruiting boost from playing in the Big East. They can't even get the best players from their own back yard.

They can still recruit better than Fordham by being in the Big East. Whoever said anything about getting the best players from their backyard?

[GoMuskies]

DePaul has A-10 level players. Fordham has MAAC level players.

[Mrs. Garrett]

DePaul has A-10 level players. Fordham has MAAC level players.

They maybe have 2 A-10 level players and their lack of fundamentals would probably keep them off the court. This current DePaul roster would be at the bottom of the A-10 as well. The combination of lack of talent and poor coaching isn't doing DePaul ant favors. It's actually the poor coaching that probably hurts them more than their talent. Big East wins 2009 through the present 2009 (0), 2010 (1), 2011 (1), 2012 (3), 2013 (2). Yes they actually got worse with essentially the same team 2012 vs. 2013.

This is really just an endless debate unless the two schools play each other. DePAul might be better, but the word significantly should go right out the window. This is a team that lost to Gardner Webb this season.

[coasterville95]

Depaul's best shining moment in recent years - Going 0-18 in conference and still managing to hold it togehter for one afternoon to knock a certain school out of a certain conference tournament at Madison Sqaure Garden. Ok,OK, alright, so DePaul stood back and let that certain program totally self desctruct, and then came in and claimed the win. To be forever memorialized on Lance's radio show.

Must have been that One Shining Moment for all 30 DePaul fans who made the trek to MSG.

[Masterofreality]

Depaul's best shining moment in recent years - Going 0-18 in conference and still managing to hold it togehter for one afternoon to knock a certain school out of a certain conference tournament at Madison Sqaure Garden. Ok,OK, alright, so DePaul stood back and let that certain program totally self desctruct, and then came in and claimed the win. To be forever memorialized on Lance's radio show.

Must have been that One Shining Moment for all 30 DePaul fans who made the trek to MSG.

Then I guess we DO have to give YTG some credit for being right. SucKS did contribute to the legacy of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden!

[XUFan09]

DePaul has A-10 level players. Fordham has MAAC level players.

That pretty much sums it up. Some Xavier recruits have also been recruited by DePaul too. Not saying that Xavier was ever threatened by losing a high-priority recruit to DePaul, but there's been some overlap between Xavier's lower-priority recruits and DePaul's higher-priority recruits. I can't ever recall that happening with Fordham.

And yeah, DePaul teams really are weak in fundamentals, like Fordham, but they at least have more athleticism on their side.

[NY44]

DePaul has A-10 level players. Fordham has MAAC level players.

That's true for all their players except Chris Gaston.

[wkrq59]

DePaul/Fordham---Different schools, part of the country, apples/oranges, both fruit.
That said, BE better for Xavier and Butler for two reasons-1)Perception, 2)Reality. The Big East is now basketball only. And only means only. It has a tradition, location, most desired tourney site in the country, situated in the sports media capital of the nation, and the tradition of private schools with fine basketball history. Does Fordham have any serious basketball tradition? NO Does DePaul, YES. Does LaSalle until recently have any tradition, yes, but a solid future as more than a Big Five also ran most years? No. Does St. Joseph have a hoops tradition? Yes, but recently, St. Joe's has gone down and if you're a Philly kid with a chance to go Nova or St. Joe's who do you choose? Anyone who said Temple gets an extra ration of gruel.
Now, tick 'em off: Georgetown, DePaul, Marquette, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Xavier, Butler, Creighton. Soon, St. Louis, Richmond or Duquesne. If expansion to 12, the expansion will be private schools who do not have to open their books as state schools do. I have not listed Dayton because even though they have a large arena they severely overlap Xavier's TV market and unlike DePaul Marquette, that section of the country is big enough to draw both.
The Big East move for Xavier will require more recruiting money, but for the first time it will make Xavier's Cintas Center a place where major conference teams from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Pac12 can take home and home and not be afraid to do so because a loss to a Big East team will not carry the same shame.
The other night on Sports Rock (LWT) heard Vogel and Broo discussing how bad UC's arena was and how US Bank Arena was preferable. One of them said, "Yeah, and with Cintas a few miles away it makes 5th Third look even worse. Oh, and don't be surprised if some move isn't made in the future to boost that Cintas capacity, maybe to 18,000.
:leghumper::slapfight::neo::drinks2:

[Titanxman04]

How can Cintas grow? It would be a pretty big expansion and I don't see Xavier having the money to increase seating by that much. Maybe I'm wrong, and I'm certainly interested if I am, but how?

[Masterofreality]

Good comments, Q, but I don't see 18,000.

Cintas was built with the concept of additional seating. Above the Student Section, where the Duff Conference Center is now could be reconstructed to add seating. The supports and foundation are in place.

The most I could ever see being added would be maybe another 2,000 or so to a 12,000- 12,500 number. You want extra revenue, but you still want to make it a "tough ticket" for marketing purposes.

[coasterville95]

It's funny he should mention 18,000 - as that is the number I saw for the Cincinnati Olympis in 2012 proposal. Recall at the time that proposal was being put together, Cintas was still being built, and in at least one place in the proposal it stated that if Cincinnati were to win the bid, CIntas would have been built out to 18,000. So I have seen that number batted around as well, but it also runs in my mind that Conseco Fieldhouse is 18,000 and in my eye looks a lot like a triple layer Cintas Center on the inside, so perhaps that would have been the model. At Conseco, the only time I was there I was in the 100 level, but the 300 level looks like it is FAR away from the court, can't imagine the sight line being too good from that high up and that far away.

[DC Muskie]

18K are you kidding me?

[coasterville95]

Of course, before any expansion - there would have to be a solid business case. To me, that would mean a record of consistent sell outs (3-5 yrs - with possibly the exception of really cruddy buy games, foul weather games, etc). But even that should be mitigated. Before we even think of expansion, we should be able to consistently sell out Cintas on season tickets. OK, we'll leave the 750-800 seats for the students, however many seats we are required to leave for the visting team delegation, and some for PR/Marketing use or corporate sponsor use. But the vast majority should be sold out on season tickets, with a sizeable waiting list.

I think 18K is a bit much for Cintas, I'd need to see a detailed seating chart, but it sounds to me like we would be essentialy adding a mirror of sections 200-206 on the north end of the building, and possible expanding sections 115-118 (aka student sections) to be more like sections 101-104. Which should mean some expanded student seats. (Which are non-revenue seats, BTW)

So what is the seating capacity of 200-206? (I won't count the increased lower level seating as those would likely be non revenue seats) That nunmber is the number of additional revenue seats, plus there could be a few more luxury suites, possibly making a second Joseph room to replace Club Blue.

The revenue to be generated from those additional seats must outweigh the cost of the expansion. Face it, we are now 13 years into moving into the Cintas Center we know and love. Have building codes changed?, have we gotten too set in our ways of how the buildingis now? So, the cost of expansion, plus the loss of the Duff Banquet Center, the Schiff Conference Center, and the Athletic Offices. So that means additional new construction to build replacement athletic offices, as well as a new convention center to replace Schiff and Duff. I don't now how big a selling point the court view from Schiff and Duff are, but that would also have to be taken into account. Then there is parking - add thousands of new seats, need more parking. Now you might have to factor in the cost of errecting a parking structure where Norwood Plaza is now.

A more prudent short term strategy might be to go the Duke route - have a 10,250 seat building and tickets that are worth their weight in gold, as the saying goes. Particularly if you ahve the whole thing sold on season tickets. Expanding the premium seating plan would be an additional cash grab, but I don't want to be the one to call up long tenured seat holders "Yes, Mr. Fan, I realize you have had season tickets for 15 years, but unfortunately your seating section has now been designated a premium seating section. " Or "Yes, Mr. Fan, I realize you have had season tickets for 15 years, but the premium seating fee for your section has gone from $500 to $1,000 per season" (Man, am I glad I signed that 5 year lock)

[GoMuskies]

I would not expand Cintas by even one seat. If there is excess demand, just raise ticket prices.

[MADXSTER]

2011 Attendance by the numbers
Average attendance 10,064

NBE
Marquette 15,586
Creighton 13,507
Georgetown 12,675
Villanova 10,511
Xavier 10,098
St John's 8,431
Seton Hall 7,937
DePaul 7,676
Butler 7,178
Providence 7,043

2011 A10 current members attendance
Average attendance 5,404

dayton 12,567
Xavier 10,098
Butler 7,178
VCU 6,645
St Louis 6,299
Charlotte 6,069
Richmond 5,959
Temple 5,925
Rhode Island 4,537
St Joe's 4,405
Duquesne 3,899
St Boni's 3,647
UMass 3,300
LaSalle 2,213
Fordham 1,938
George W 1,788

This does not figure in the number of home games but still gives you a pretty good idea of the overall value of one conference vs the other.