View Full Version : Xavier on ESPN Bubble watch
JimmyTwoTimes37
03-07-2013, 03:21 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch
Xavier [17-12 (9-6), RPI: 92, SOS: 83] A few weeks ago, it wasn't totally crazy to see Xavier as a potential late-season bubble-rusher, if only because the schedule was so favorable: They got VCU, Memphis, UMass and Saint Louis at home in succession, followed by a season-ending road game at Butler. Xavier split those home games -- it toppled Memphis and Saint Louis, lost to VCU and UMass -- and while that might not be enough just yet (there are still losses to Pacific, Vanderbilt, Dayton, Wofford and Wake Forest on this ledger) would a win at Butler Saturday night at least get them a bubble look? It'd have to, right? Stay tuned.
Grylls
03-07-2013, 03:23 PM
A ton of bubble teams are gonna have to shit the bed along with an X win over Butler and a run to the A-10 finals..Not feeling it. I do think this team has the ability to win in Brooklyn though if things break right.
JimmyTwoTimes37
03-07-2013, 03:30 PM
Agreed. Just found it interesting since I didn't think X was even close to the bubble.
Interesting stats here as well(obviously negated by the horrible losses):
Lance McAlister @LanceMcAlister
From listener Jeff: Record vs Top 50 RPI Teams: Xavier 5-2. UC 4-8. UK 1-4.
Xavier's .714 winning pct vs Top 50 teams is 5th best of teams having played at least 5 Top 50 games. Only Duke, Miami, New Mexico, Kansas +
Grylls
03-07-2013, 03:32 PM
They will be an interesting case if they add a couple more top 50 wins. The committee will have to look at a team with like 7-8 top 50 wins. A lot of bubble teams are pumping their chest to 3-4 top 50 wins.
LA Muskie
03-07-2013, 05:45 PM
I think this is more a testament to our historic success than anything else. We don't belong in the discussion, and we are pretty far from the true "bubble" right now. Yet we remain nationally relevant. I take this as a positive, even though I have my doubts that there is any way into the tourney at this point that don't include the acronym AQ.
Cheesehead
03-07-2013, 07:08 PM
Agreed. Just found it interesting since I didn't think X was even close to the bubble.
Interesting stats here as well(obviously negated by the horrible losses):
Lance McAlister @LanceMcAlister
From listener Jeff: Record vs Top 50 RPI Teams: Xavier 5-2. UC 4-8. UK 1-4.
Xavier's .714 winning pct vs Top 50 teams is 5th best of teams having played at least 5 Top 50 games. Only Duke, Miami, New Mexico, Kansas +
Wow. That's not too shabby. If X beats Butler & can get 2 wins in NY, then it might be a real possibility.
crolfes12
03-07-2013, 09:03 PM
I see where ESPN is coming from. If you think about it, nearly all the bubble teams continue to lose. Nobody (yet) has really gone a win streak to secure there spot that was really on the edge of the bubble
Grylls
03-07-2013, 09:18 PM
Virginia and Kentucky both obtained bad losses tonight so that can't hurt X's cause.
xfan'17
03-07-2013, 11:33 PM
Don't know if this is relevant or not, but with our A.D., even though he's leaving, being the head of the committee won't that make it harder for us to get a bubble spot especially with the type of year we've had.
D-West & PO-Z
03-07-2013, 11:40 PM
How would it make it harder Xfan? I dont think we have much of a chance because of the bad losses but I cant imagine a reason we would have a worse chance because our AD is the chair committee.
Snipe
03-08-2013, 01:42 AM
Looks like this Butler thing is a big deal.
I love Big Games.
I know it doesn't mean crap, but the NBC announcer last night during the Butler/UMASS game predicted that Xavier would be in with a win over Butler and one or two wins in NY. I think they have to beat Butler and at least get to the final of the A10 tourney to even sniff a chance.
nkymuskie
03-08-2013, 10:07 AM
I know it doesn't mean crap, but the NBC announcer last night during the Butler/UMASS game predicted that Xavier would be in with a win over Butler and one or two wins in NY. I think they have to beat Butler and at least get to the final of the A10 tourney to even sniff a chance.
That's pretty much how I feel. For us to even have a chance at an at large bid we would need only teams that would be receiving at large bids to win the conference tournaments along with us beating Butler and making it to the A-10 final. Even two or three teams that were not going to be at large winning an automatic bid would probably keep us out.
The best answer to this situation is to win the A-10 tourney and take the decision out of the committees hands.
nkymuskie
03-08-2013, 10:13 AM
"6. Xavier. The notion that Xavier could sneak into the NCAA tournament has seemed ridiculous for most of the season, given some of the really ugly losses and various growing pains this rebuilding (rebuilt?) Musketeers team has endured. But the late spate of home-schedule love always offered the chance for an outside push, and the Musketeers managed to split those games, dropping Memphis and Saint Louis but losing to VCU and UMass. Last on the docket is a trip to Butler, where a victory is not only a reasonable proposition but would be disproportionately attractive to the selection committee. So don't shut the front door just yet."
This is from ESPN's A-10 power rankings which were updated today. Here's the link to the whole article: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=collegebasketballnation&id=78564
Butler is a MUST WIN to have any chance at an at large bid.
GoMuskies
03-08-2013, 10:14 AM
Beat Butler. Get the fifth seed. Beat Charlotte/GW/SBU/Dayton in the first round, Temple in the QF, SLU in the semis and lose to VCU/Butler in the finals.
It would probably be very close, but I still think out.
Masterofreality
03-08-2013, 10:35 AM
Beat Butler. Get the fifth seed. Beat Charlotte/GW/SBU/Dayton in the first round, Temple in the QF, SLU in the semis and lose to VCU/Butler in the finals.
It would probably be very close, but I still think out.
I agree, but the thing is that everybody else sucks rocks too. Can you imagine what a joke this year's dance would be if they went to 96. Blahhhhhhhh!
GoMuskies
03-08-2013, 10:40 AM
Think how much we would improve our NIT seeding, though. We might get a #1 seed in that scenario!
The ONLY benefit of a 96 team Tournament would be that Xavier would probably get in this year. And that's not worth it. As much as I will hate it, this year's NCAA Tournament will be perfectly fine without this year's Xavier team (subject to an A-10 Tournament run, of course).
XU '11
03-08-2013, 10:52 AM
Beat Butler. Get the fifth seed. Beat Charlotte/GW/SBU/Dayton in the first round, Temple in the QF, SLU in the semis and lose to VCU/Butler in the finals.
It would probably be very close, but I still think out.
No way we get left out with 8 top 50 wins.
GoMuskies
03-08-2013, 10:58 AM
It's the 5 sub-100 losses that I think could make just that happen.
But it sure would be nice to get to 8 top 50 wins to find out! Would make the next 8/9 days fun.
Xavier
03-08-2013, 11:00 AM
I agree, but the thing is that everybody else sucks rocks too. Can you imagine what a joke this year's dance would be if they went to 96. Blahhhhhhhh!
Every year would be a joke if it went to 96. Xaviers RPI would have to really jump to be in consideration for an At-Large. I can't remember the week or exact number, but Lunardi said in one of his chat wraps that the lowerst RPI to get an at-large was in the 60's. But, Beat Butler and go to the A-10 finals and I think X has a 40/60 shot at at-large.
GIMMFD
03-08-2013, 11:07 AM
Guys, don't worry, we are winning 10 straight, and bringing home a National Championship...
nuts4xu
03-08-2013, 11:21 AM
Guys, don't worry, we are winning 10 straight, and bringing home a National Championship...
I like it.... Get on the Bus and Ride!!
What it really comes down to to me is how many locks win their conference tournaments. If there are a bunch of teams stealing conference tourneys and eliminating at-large bids from bubble teams, we really stand no chance. If every or most tournaments from multi-bid leagues are won by teams that would've gotten at-large bids anyway, there's still a glimmer of hope if we win out and lose in the finals.
Caveat
03-08-2013, 12:03 PM
I still can't believe a team with as many bad losses as they've taken this year can make the tourney as an at-large.
Every year would be a joke if it went to 96. Xaviers RPI would have to really jump to be in consideration for an At-Large. I can't remember the week or exact number, but Lunardi said in one of his chat wraps that the lowerst RPI to get an at-large was in the 60's. But, Beat Butler and go to the A-10 finals and I think X has a 40/60 shot at at-large.
Lunardi is a putz. It was New Mexico State and their RPI was in the low 70s
Beat Butler. Get the fifth seed. Beat Charlotte/GW/SBU/Dayton in the first round, Temple in the QF, SLU in the semis and lose to VCU/Butler in the finals.
It would probably be very close, but I still think out.
Problem is if we beat Butler we will more than likely get the 4th seed. I don't see Temple beating VCU.
Grylls
03-08-2013, 12:19 PM
I still can't believe a team with as many bad losses as they've taken this year can make the tourney as an at-large.
Virginia has more sub-100 losses than X.
mistabeecee41
03-08-2013, 01:21 PM
Virginia has more sub-100 losses than X.
catch 22. If Dayton loses saturday, they might miss the A-10 tourney. If Dayton wins Saturday, they might slip into the top 100 and knock out one of our bad losses (rivalry game on the road might not really be a bad loss, but statistics say otherwise). Let's say we somehow beat Butler and make it to the A-10 finals, 4 sub-100 losses looks much better than 5.
drudy23
03-08-2013, 02:43 PM
We have no shot at an at-large...wishful thinking is simply setting yourself up for failure. Not gonna happen.
Do I think we can win the tournament....yes.
We have no shot at an at-large...wishful thinking is simply setting yourself up for failure. Not gonna happen.
Do I think we can win the tournament....yes.
I don't think you see anyone saying it's even remotely likely, but there is definitely a shot at an at-large, crazy as it may be.
MD Muskie
03-08-2013, 02:59 PM
Its nice to have unbridled optimism, even in the face of reality.
Grylls
03-08-2013, 03:21 PM
Seth Davis: Is anyone out there ready to give Xavier a close look?
Not that I'm a Seth Davis fan but it can't hurt to have him talking about X. Just compare Xavier to Virginia (who's in many fields right now). Xavier has 2 less sub-100 losses, a better SOS, and 1 more top 50 win. Honestly, a win at Butler will put X in better shape than most think IMO. I'm not getting my hopes too high for a win at Hinkle though.
Seth Davis: Is anyone out there ready to give Xavier a close look?
Not that I'm a Seth Davis fan but it can't hurt to have him talking about X. Just compare Xavier to Virginia (who's in many fields right now). Xavier has 2 less sub-100 losses, a better SOS, and 1 more top 50 win. Honestly, a win at Butler will put X in better shape than most think IMO. I'm not getting my hopes too high for a win at Hinkle though.
Exactly. Again, it's still not at all likely that we will be an at-large candidate on Selection Sunday, but there are just so many other teams in similar situations that a TON can change the big picture over the next week and a half.
Xman95
03-08-2013, 03:31 PM
Andy Katz was on SVP Show today and said the one team nobody seems to be giving enough credit to is Xavier. Said a win vs Butler combined with deep A-10 Tourney run could do it. Like I said the other day, that VCU loss could wind up being the difference in Xavier's fate. If we hang on for the win, that's wins over VCU, Butler (x2 if we win this next one), Memphis, SLU. And four of those would have been late in the year.
At this point I'm still hoping for the A-10 Tourney Championship because the at large is going to be tough. But at least it's not completely out of the question yet.
LA Muskie
03-08-2013, 04:43 PM
I choose not to worry about it too much. 3-4 wins in a row against quality opponents is something we haven't done all season. In my mind, it's all upside right now. They've exceeded my expectations for the season up to this point. And they'd have to crush my expectations from here on out to make the tourney. I sure as hell hope they do. But I won't be wallowing in my beer if they don't.
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