2013 Kentucky Derby Trail Thread

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Back for another fun-filled spring.

Degenerates may wish to consider today's G3 Sham Stakes -- a mile on the dirt -- at Santa Anita.

Not me.

A handy Prep Race calendar for you!

http://www.horseplayernow.com/2013%20Triple%20Crown%20Prep%20Schedule.pdf

And some places to hang out.

http://www.horseplayernow.com/ecom/sp?cat=crown

http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2013_contenders

Riders Up!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The G3 Holy Bull Stakes, the first interesting, if not meaningful, race of the 2013 season runs today at Gulfstream at 5:05 EST.

Interesting because Shanghai Bobby, 2012 two-year old horse of the year, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, and Todd Pletcher's #1 Derby hopeful will run from the post position.

All this means proceed with extreme caution in making Shanghai Bobby your choice for the Derby or even today for that matter. Street Sense in 2007 is the only to BC Juvie winner to win the Derby. But hope springs eternal among the linearly-minded handicapping public. And the Holy Bull, while being the first race in the always important three race Gulfstream prelim meeting (Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby) gave us the sainted Barbaro in 2006, but not a lot more. Remember last year: the Holy Bull is the race that burst Hansen's bubble.

But hey, this is as good a place to start paying attention as any.

http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-park-shanghai-bobby-starts-road-kentucky-derby-holy-bull-stakes

http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Shanghai_Bobby

Bern Identity (bred through Northern Dancer, Secretariat AND Affirmed) will draw attention.

And there's Frac Daddy for you Scat Daddy fans out there.

All three of these horses are Legit in January . . .

Out in California, Goldencents is running nicely for Doug O'Neill with consistent 90+ Beyer Speed Ratings. Just fine for now. Looks like he'll run in the Bob Lewis on 2/2. We shall see.

I have a horse I'm keeping an eye on, but he's taking his time getting ready and is going to have a very short runway once he is. More on that later.

I DO have a horse for Paulie, though: He's Had Enough!

http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hes_Had_Enough

Doug O'Neill and Mario Gutierrez back for more. What could go wrong?

Cheers!

[paulxu]

I DO have a horse for Paulie, though: He's Had Enough!

Cheers!

Mel! Perfect my man. Same owners, great name, and I'll Have Another followed my call to the roses last year.
Get this guy in with enough points, he's a road grey uniform, and I'm on it.
And yes...I've had Enough!

[GoMuskies]

Shanghai Bobby was badly outdueled in the stretch. Probably not the start they were looking for on the road to Louisville.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Itsmyluckyday ran a Gulfstream track record at 1 1/16 and clocked a 104 Beyer Speed Rating (that's decently fast).

Shanghai Bobby ran a career best 100 Beyer. So I'd guess there are no long faces in the Pletcher barn.

Both horses will skip the Fountain of Youth and point to the Florida Derby.

http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-park-holy-bull-top-two-skip-fountain-youth-and-await-florida-derby

Racing coast-to-coast this weekend:



Bob Lewis @ Santa Anita
Sam Davis @ Tampa Bay
Hutcheson @ Gulfstream
Withers @ Aqueduct
WEBN @ Turfway ( ! )


Why not win some money on Saturday to blow on Super Bowl prop bets on Sunday?

[paulxu]

This is not good. He's Had Enough is starting to run like my basketball team. 5th in the Fountain of Youth.
That's not going to help getting into the tournament...er,...the Derby field.

I'll Have Another is definetly a better name for a horse than He's Had Enough.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

OK. Shifting to second gear on the Derby Trail.

Two leading horses get important exposure and experience today. Verranzano, Todd Pletcher's leading colt runs at Tampa Bay (http://www.drf.com/news/tampa-bay-derby-brings-verrazano-new-set-challenges).

Flashback, Bob Baffert's favorite, runs at Santa Anita. (http://www.drf.com/news/byron-king-goldencents-offers-more-value-flashback-san-felipe)

Verranzano and Flashback are #1 and #2 in this week's DRF Derby Watch. (http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs)

The Tampa Bay Derby posts at 5:15e/4:15c, the San Felipe from Santa Anita goes at 5:35e/4:35c. Still early for the networks to be covering. Check in on TVG or HRTV.

###

Starting this year, horses qualify for the Derby by earning points awarded in Graded Stakes races. Last weekend we entered the "First Leg" of point qualifying. for the next few weeks, WPS finishers in qualifying races will be awarded 50/20/10 Derby Starting Points. If the Derby Field exceeds 20 final positions will be awarded on the basis of points earned.

In the past horses qualified on the basis of previous earnings. The effect was that one or two horses would qualify each year by gathering winnings as a two-year old or winning a rich race in Dubai or God knows where.

This shouldn't make a big difference in the end, but it does plump up interest in the races as May approaches. Leading horses will be steered toward point-rich races a little sooner this spring. Some previously rich races were "left at the gate" when points were awarded and won't get any Derby entrants this year. (See "Illinois Derby".)

Learn more here. (http://www.drf.com/events/road-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs)

###

Gary Stevens is back from retirement! (http://www.garystevens.com/) Always liked the guy as a rider and commentator. Mother Cooley advises that the ladies like him, too. Remember him in Seabiscuit?

###

First Saturday in May (http://www.traileraddict.com/trailer/the-first-saturday-in-may/trailer) is a 2008 documentary well worth seeing to spike a Derby Fever. This trailer pitches it a little too much towards the race day party. It's more about the people and horses trying to get to Louisville. It made Cousin Dale Romans a star in the Cooley household. If you mourned the loss of Barbaro, let's say I warned you. Recommended!

###

Regretfully for Paulie, He's Had Enough (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hes_Had_Enough#) ​ has, indeed. After finishing 5th in the Fountain of Youth, he now ranks 208th among three-year olds. The nag was reportedly last seen browsing the window-treatment aisle at a Target store across the street from ThistleDown in Cleveland.

###

The Derby Trail winds through Turfway in two weeks for the Spiral Stakes (nee The Lane's End). Winner get 50 points! Uncaptured (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Uncaptured)is expected in Florence that afternoon. He won the Kentucky Jockey's Club at Churchill last fall but hasn't raced since. Won an earlier race at CD, too. He's training well right now, though. Won 6 of 7 races as a two-year old. Son of Lion Heart who finished second in the KD to Smarty Jones. Trainer John Oxley did same for Monarchos, KD winner in 2001. Uncaptured. Hmmmm.

###

Good racing luck!

[paulxu]

Wait...I've haven't had enough.

[BBC 08]

8 weeks.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Verranzano is a big, powerful horse. He romped to victory in the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday with a 101 Beyer Speed Score. He didn't beat a lot but gave the impression he'll be ready when the time comes.

If you ever want to see what a pace meltdown looks like, check out the replay of Saturday's San Felipe Stakes (http://www.drf.com/events/road-kentucky-derby-churchill-downs) from Santa Anita. Favorite Flashback and highly regarded Goldencents took off together on a heated first mile duel only to have Hear the Ghost roar up the middle of the track and past both of them in the final 1/16th. Hear the Ghost's 93 Beyer gives an idea of how the pace slowed down at the end. I doubt his connections care.

Hear the Ghost is probably in the Derby. Flashback finished second and got some points. Goldencents finished 4th and will need some more points next time out to lock up a Derby PP.


Next weekend we're in Arkansas for the 1 1/16 Rebel Stakes and a whole new cohort of wannabes.


###

I should mention that there is good horse racing talk on the radio in the morning. Steve Byk's "At the Races" can be heard Tuesday through Friday mornings on Sirius 93. Check it out on your drive in. Good stuff with lots of Triple Crown discussion.

[BBC 08]

10 days till the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

[bourbonman]

Verrazano looking to be ML favorite, followed closely by Orb. I'm looking at Revolutionary with Calvin in the irons and hoping this horse is in the first gate but not on the rail. Looking for the speed that will break down and while speed is there, not sure it will set a pace for a dead closer. Might be a year for a horse to get out front and hang on. Looking forward to reviewing the next week and clipping that super. Best day of the year to make money with all the "hat" money placed on stupid bets on names, numbers and colors and therefore driving up value on good horses.

[BBC 08]

Bourbonman, what are your thoughts on the new way CD is having horses qualify for the Derby?

[paulxu]

Regretfully for Paulie, He's Had Enough (http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hes_Had_Enough#) ​ has, indeed. After finishing 5th in the Fountain of Youth, he now ranks 208th among three-year olds. The nag was reportedly last seen browsing the window-treatment aisle at a Target store across the street from ThistleDown in Cleveland.

They packed this horse up and flew him all the way to Dubai to run in the UAE Derby, or some such nonsense.
Apparently you need pts. to get into the Derby field, and he could have picked up enough there to qualify.

He came in second....to last....in a 12 horse field.
I may skip this one and just drink a lot. (unless there's a nag call "DrinkaLot.")

[bourbonman]

Bourbonman, what are your thoughts on the new way CD is having horses qualify for the Derby?

Mixed feelings, yet overal I think I like it. The part I like is it gives more points to recent races. These horses at this age are teenagers, and are developing rapidly. A week or two in horse years is like a couple of years in human years. So we're getting hotter horses that should make the race a bit more competitive.

A problem (or opportunity depending the way you see it) is that it devalues some races earlier and completely eliminates some races like the the Illinois Derby from the mix. (And is this a corporate power play by CD to reward some tracks and ignore others?)

Another thing I truly like is that it values races a mile or longer. We won't have dead sprinters that get $ value for winning sprints getting into the race that next to zero chance of winning. Yet, my thrist for speed in this year's race might be the penalty for this and leave some dead closers with nothing to close on.

It also focuses away from turf horses. Except for one international race points go to dirt and synthetic races. I wish they would eliminate synthetic as well, but that will probably take care of itself in due time.

It may take a year or two to really evaluate the system, but on the surface of getting horses that are hot and true distance horses, I like it. I bet it gets tweaked year over year to adjust from learnings.

Also, don't know if you read thsi article, but interesting take on this system.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2013/04/14/derby-points-system-accomplishes-its-purpose/2083061/

[bourbonman]

It's getting close enough to start settling on your picks. Four horses were officially withdrawn yesterday and "Fear the Kitten" draws in to get it to an even 20. I'm not worried about the kitten yet, but need to understand if it'll add speed, which I'm still looking for. (New points system may be elementing dead speed horses from the mix.) With post position draw Wednesday evening at 5PM I'll stick my neck out on where I might be playing.

Undefeated Verrazanno is still looking at the favorites role and rightfully so. I will have him in my super, but not on top, unless my two horses don't draw good posts. Orb, with a stellar workout yesterday may challenge for that favorites spot, and is one of my horses I have on top. He's a smaller horse so I'm concerned if he draws on the rail and/or is near large horses that can bounce him around at the start. If he gets a clean start and good trip, watch out. He has a hot jockey in Rosario, so he'll have solid guidance. My other horse on top is Revolutionary. Workouts have been great and held on tough in the Louisiana Derby to beat Mylute. Showed grit there as well as two back when he squeezed between horses in the strech to win. He has no fear of be bounced around! My fear here is Borel. Will he wait too long looking for his classic rail move and get shut out? Hope not.

Need other horses to sprinkle in my super and Verrazanno will definitely be in my mix. Put in there with him Goldencents. West coast shipper won the Santa Anita, but who did he beat. His odds will drop due to the Pitino ownership connection. Heck, not only will UofL fans bet him down, but Rick's had a hot hand lately so others may join in. There fear on these two horses is that they have respectable speed (not blazing) that could take them gate to wire if there isn't a pace that presses them. Watch out if they're in the gate side by side. That could give me the blazing speed I want for my horses. And one last thing on Verrazanno, he has Johnny Velaquez in the irons. Outstanding jockey, but broke bones a while back and originally was projected to miss the Derby. Shortly thereafter he declared he would be ready and will start riding tomorrow for the first time in a race. On top of this, he had both Orb and Verranzanno to choose from since he was the jockey on both. Did he pick based on his favorite horse or his loyalty to Pletcher?

If there's any pace at all watch out for Normandy Invasion. If he's not just an Aqueduct horse, he might be flying at the end. He was in the Wood and if that race was another 1/2 furlong longer, Verrazanno would not be undefeated. And the Derby adds a whole furlong! Itsmyluckyday couldn't close on Orb in the Florida Derby leaving questions if he's good enough or is a horse that simply likes that track. Scuttlebutt is that he hacked up a bunch of mucuos around that race and is now clear. Horse on the mend? Maybe. May have on bottom of super.

Other horses I've heard about and need to study further are Overanalyze (I might be guilty of that here), Palace Malice (breeding looks great), Frac Daddy (likes CD). These would be on bottom if at all.

Need to see post positions, mortgage the house and sit back with a bourbon and crush this sucker.

FYI, the Oaks is loaded with the drawing today. Should be a great betting race on Friday.

And on Saturday watch out for Wise Dan, Point of Entry and Opitmizer hooking up in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. Should be a classic. A horse i've liked for a while in there is Silver Max which should get a nice price in there. Good enough to win? Dale Romans wouldn't be entering if he had no chance. We'll see, but WD & POE would need to yield some ground for that to happen.

Enjoy the Derby! Hope you have lots of winners!

[BBC 08]

This is a must read this time of year. If really get your mind set for Derby then read this with a mint julep in hand while either My Old Kentucky Home or Dead Flowers by the Stones is playing in the background.

http://brianb.freeshell.org/a/kddd.pdf (The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved)

[bobbiemcgee]

Best day of the year to make money with all the "hat" money placed on stupid bets on names, numbers and colors and therefore driving up value on good horses.

I'm putting 2 bucks on the "little redheaded girl".

[BBC 08]

Bought this poster yesterday. Already sold out online. Cannot wait to frame and hang this.

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr06/2013/4/30/18/enhanced-buzz-wide-18855-1367361300-5.jpg

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

I got the horse right here his name is . . . Verrazano.

He was the talk of Derby Trail back in March when he crushed the Tampa Bay Derby, barely breaking a sweat.

Then he won the Wood but apparently did so in "less than visually impressive style."

Now he might be the fourth or fifth choice on Saturday. If he goes above 5-1 he offers more value than any other leading horse in recent memory.

Orb, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze, Revolutionary, and perhaps even Pitino-owned Goldencents may take more money.

Gimme some Verrazano.

He's won all four race from maiden through Optional Claim through G2 through G1.

As I read the charts he has never been passed on the race course.

The speed figures are there even if they are not the best in the race.

As for distance, he's got Giant's Causeway as a dam's sire.

As connections, Pletcher and Velazquez are, well, solid.

This isn't to dismiss any of the others. Verrazano can still improve and if he does, he'll win the race by rating the first flight, moving at 3/8, and leading a great finish vs. Orb or Goldencents.

Sez "Mel".

Others for your consideration:

Orb -- runs like the devil late

Goldencents -- his bullet-ridden workout chart means he'll be there

Black Onyx -- won the Spiral @ Turfway. BOOM!

###

P.S. Vyjack is the gelding in the race. I heard gelding described as "The Ultimate Equipment Change."

Good racing luck everybody,

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

And kudos to Bourbonman for his expert and well-crafted commentary!

[GoMuskies]

Given my work/industry, I will probably throw a few bucks down on Frac Daddy...at least in the exotics.

[paulxu]

Ack. Can't believe my horse scratched himself 2 months ago.
I'm depressed.
Looking for Goldencents to run down Verrenzano in the stretch by a neck.
(Screw Mr. 15 seconds; this is the same guy who gave me my horse last year, that's all)

[bourbonman]

And on Saturday watch out for Wise Dan, Point of Entry and Opitmizer hooking up in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. Should be a classic. A horse i've liked for a while in there is Silver Max which should get a nice price in there. Good enough to win? Dale Romans wouldn't be entering if he had no chance. We'll see, but WD & POE would need to yield some ground for that to happen.


AND if you really want to have some fun, bet either the KY Oaks Daily Double (coupled with the Derby) or the Oaks Pick 3, which includes the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Derby.

Ya'll already have plenty of insights on the Derby and I wrote about the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic above, so some quick thoughts on the Oaks. Big play is Unlimited Budget and if wasn't for the new Derby point system that adds no value for fillies races, this horse may have been entered into the Derby. Yet, IMHO, she's beatable. The favorite of Dreaming of Julia has the best rating yet of any 3YO (colt or fillie) and will be tough to beat. Midnight Lucky is strong, but only has had 2 races, both since Valentine's Day. Want some value in the wide open race? Look at Rose to Gold with only bad race on synthetic surface. She'll be out in front in this speed infested race (unlike the Derby) and will need to hang on. Close hatces also will add speed. I wonder if Unlimited Budget would be undefeated if Alvarado hadn't lost his whip in the last onboard of Flashy Gray, which stilll lost by only 2 lengths. And I'm yet to mention the 2YO flillie champion Beholder. What a race!

Good luck to all!

[Emp]

Im a sucker for any sporting event. This thread always reminds me to clear the decks on Saturday afternoon and prep the mint syrup. Thanks as always to Mel and Bourbon.

Edit: heavy rain forecast for Derby Day. Who do we like on a wet track?

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Well Emp funny you should ask!

KYD runners who have won on an off track:

Falling Sky

Itsmyluckyday

Revolutionary

Tiz a Minister

Vyjack

Clear as mud, no?

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Black Onyx is a SCR. He's got an ankle.

So I get to pick another bomb.

He's right next door in PP

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

er PP 2.

Oxbow 30-1. Lots of bad trips and last was a toss. Gary Stevens up

Boom!

[GoMuskies]

I think I have to pay my 7 year old daughter $80. Pretty sure she had $2 to win on Princess of Sylmar in the Oaks.

[bobbiemcgee]

heavy rain forecast for Derby Day. Who do we like on a wet track?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_YlS3SLoz8

[Masterofreality]

Being a native Louisvillian, and still paying my part for the family box at Churchill, I'm weighing in on Revolutionary.

The Horse has won, has Calvin Borel- a three time Derby winner- up, and is not bothered by slop.

Nice 10-1 odds too at my last check.

Personal note, I've been to my share of Derbys, but The Oaks is still my favorite.

[Nigel Tufnel]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_YlS3SLoz8

Nicely done. Not big on the ponies...am one of the big hats that just bets ignorantly on Derby Day. Still....hasn't been a year since that episode that I haven't quoted this to my wife or friends during Derby week. Classic.

Now...as everyone knows, I will throw down a bet every once in a while. I'm going to be like one of the guys in the gambling picks forums that blindly tails a guy and then bitches when he doesn't win. I'm going with Revolutionary. And if he doesn't win...I refuse to blame myself for blindly following a guy because I have no knowledge of the race myself. I cast 100% of the blame on bourbon.

Bourbon...if I win...nice tail by me. If I lose....you suck.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

I think I have to pay my 7 year old daughter $80. Pretty sure she had $2 to win on Princess of Sylmar in the Oaks.

Wow.

I was in the air.

She beat quite a field.

Who's your daughter like Saturday?

[GoMuskies]

Not sure yet, but it will be the horse with the name she likes best for sure. We'll go over it with breakfast in the morning. We won't be able to look at pictures of the silks, or that would certainly play into the decision as well.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

There's no reason to think Orb can't or won't win.

I'll leave it to bourbonman to conjure a Superfecta or Pick 5 or somesuch to guide you to your next fortune on Saturday. There'll be no worthwhile money to be made in betting Orb straight.

You may, neverthess, be intent on trying to beat Orb with a Win bet.

Because, well, because . . . Oh! Because no favorite has won the Preakness from the post position since Hill Prince in 1950.

If that's the case you can:


Go with a horse that gets loose on the lead that Orb can't catch. No. Orb has been winning by clear lengths. 2 1/2 in the Derby. He can catch this crop of 3 year olds. It's his running style. No.
Go with the horse that catches Orb after Orb catches the speed.


It would fun to see Rosie Napravnik win the race and become the first woman to win a TC race since Julie Crone rode Colonial Affair in 1993.

Mylute.

Good racing luck!

[bourbonman]

Orb with I'll Take Charge in a Super Double Key. One of them will need to win and the other In The Monaey. Will support with Goldenscents, Departing, Mylute, Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday. These will need to fill in the other 2 slots. Total combination of bets is $120 entered as $0.10 bets to avoid taxes. Fortunately I did that this way at CD and avoided the taxes. Hope to do it again today.

Lov WTO see Orb win but am trying to beat him and make some money. Good luck to all.

[paulxu]

Bourbonman, I have no idea what all that means. Hope you won some money with Oxbow.

[bourbonman]

Bourbonman, I have no idea what all that means. Hope you won some money with Oxbow.

Nope got clobbered. But it was betting it.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Great Betting Race at Belmont on Saturday.

Here they are in order of Post Position.



Frac Daddy. 30-1. 16th at CD after finishing second in the Arkansas Derby. I heard a long radio interview with trainer Kenny McPeek today. Great interview and sounds like a great guy. Good luck.
Freedom Child. 8-1. Late bloomer who broke his maiden at Gulfstream in mid-March. Then stiffed in the Wood (10th by 17), then led wire-to-wire to win the Peter Pan (at Belmont: check; on a wet track: check; by 13 lengths: check; 99 Beyer: check).
Overanalyze. 12-1. Here are his last eight finishes: 1st; 4th; 1st; 3rd; 1st; 5th; 1st; 11th. What is the next number in the sequence? Ya think?
Giant Finish. 30-1. Not fast enough and no obvious distance advantages.
Orb. 3-1. Odds will probably go lower. Some strain to point out that he doesn’t run unusually strong late fractions, he just runs longer and stronger than other horses. Which, at a mile and half is a problem, because . . . why? Same daddy (Malibu Moon) as Freedom Child.
Incognito. 20-1. Fifth by 15 in the Peter Pan behind Freedom Child.
Oxbow. 5-1. Third of the three “O” horses begging for a trifecta box. I gave up on him before the Derby, which was sheer genius for two weeks. Preakness winner will not be allowed to dally at the front of the pack, a mile and a half notwithstanding.
Midnight Taboo. 30-1. Well-bred grandson of Danzig and Thunder Gulch didn’t seem to mind the slop at Belmont a few weeks back.
Revolutionary. 9-2. Third off a layoff with improving Beyer Speed Ratings. Has closed from off the pace to in all three wins. Doesn’t mind wet tracks.
Will Take Charge. 20-1. Ran very well in Arkansas earlier and won the Rebel. Best call since then in the KYD and Preak is 6th by 5. Oh, and he finished slow in both of those outings. No thanks.
Vyjack. 20-1. Ran ¾ mile at KYD chasing the hot pace and stopped. Finished 18th. Had a couple of wins early in the spring. I guess you have to toss the Derby. I guess. There have always been questions about his distance potential.
Palace Malice. 15-1. Villain of the KYD, where he freaked out, ran a 45 and one half-mile, and screwed up the pace for “Mel’s” Verrazano pick. In truth he’s not a frontrunner. And in truth, his only win came at Saratoga ten months ago. Son of my beloved Curlin.
Unlimited Budget. 8-1. The filly. Owned by Mike Repole, high-profile NY Guy, and inventor of Vitaminwater which he sold to Coca-Cola for 4 billion with a “B” dollars. True thing. Finished 3rd in the KY Oaks. Stalks pace and closes. 4 wins. 5 starts. A big-race horse.
Golden Soul. 8-1. 2nd in the Derby and a true closer type. Moved up thirteen horses in the KYD and ten in the LA Derby.


In the order of their post positions: Freedom Child; Orb; Midnight Taboo; Revolutionary.

Good racing luck!