Down Goes UC!

[Cheesehead]

Have to admit, after watching a 6-6 Duke team hand UC the Belk Bowl, I rather enjoyed watching UC lose by one at home to New Mexico. Suck it UC!

[Nigel Tufnel]

That bowl game was ridiculous. Probably one of the worst beats I've experienced in many years of gaming. I've done it long enough and now don't bet enough for it to make me mad....just laughed it off...that's gambling. I had Duke +9. Duke has the ball inside the UC 10 yard line in a tie game with 1:25 left in the game....and I didn't cover. HAHA!!! Unbelievable.

[blueblob06]

That bowl game was ridiculous. Probably one of the worst beats I've experienced in many years of gaming. I've done it long enough and now don't bet enough for it to make me mad....just laughed it off...that's gambling. I had Duke +9. Duke has the ball inside the UC 10 yard line in a tie game with 1:25 left in the game....and I didn't cover. HAHA!!! Unbelievable.
I was just coming on here to ask if anybody bet Duke in this one. That is rough man, my condolences. Rece Davis made a comment after showing those highlights that that had to sting really bad for Duke as well as "some others" and he was talking about Duke bettors for sure. UC was given that game on a silver platter.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I was just coming on here to ask if anybody bet Duke in this one. That is rough man, my condolences. Rece Davis made a comment after showing those highlights that that had to sting really bad for Duke as well as "some others" and he was talking about Duke bettors for sure. UC was given that game on a silver platter.

Hell, I didn't care that UC was given that game on a silver platter....I still felt pretty confident about the cover at that point....then Duke gets the ball into UC territory and the odds of not covering decrease even more...then BAM!! I've learned to follow the golden rule of gambling when it comes to not getting killed...it took a while to learn and it was expensive getting there....but you have to flat bet. It doesn't give you quite the adrenaline rush, but it pays off in the long run. I bet on BGSU and Duke today and got hosed in both games, UC game obviously being off the charts bad luck. But when Baylor hits tonight, I will have gone 1-2 and lost very little money due to flat betting. Only time I break my rule on flat betting is if I'm up big for the day and maybe double up on a night game I like. Flat betting takes a lot of discipline, but the results have been undeniable. I am up overall since doing it.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Nigel: "Flat bet"?

Warmly,

Mel.

[paulxu]

I'm convinced Nigel lives in Las Vegas and speaks a different language

As for the Duke game, that sucked big time. What was the goofy penalty at the half that made them re-kick the field goal (and miss?)
But that ending was el bizarro. What was the running back thinking, going into the line one-handing the damn ball? Just really stupid.

[Masterofreality]

Obviously, the pact with Satan that Coach K has doesn't spread over to Duke football.

What a horriffic meltdown...and to a team that has no business deserving the benefit.

[bleedXblue]

UC is extremely reliant on their guard play. They are not even close to a Top 10 team IMHO. Until they develop a consistent post presence, they are going to lose some more games.

[gladdenguy]

UC is extremely reliant on their guard play. They are not even close to a Top 10 team IMHO. Until they develop a consistent post presence, they are going to lose some more games.

I hope you're right. My wife's family at Christmas was going on and on how they will get a 1 or 2 seed this year and march to the final four......3 seed at worse. Then they were barking like Wofford.....I was beyond pissed. They also threw in the 1960 National Titles and the Final Four in 92......one is better than zero (tons of laughter). So glad they lost last night. I hate Christmas with her side of the family.

[chico]

Nigel: "Flat bet"?

Warmly,

Mel.

Flat betting is placing the same amount of money on each game. Sometimes you may feel more confident and want to bet more (or if you've lost you're first couple bets and want to try to make up for it by betting more on a later game) so it takes discipline to bet the same amount each time.

[More Cowbell]

Flat betting is placing the same amount of money on each game. Sometimes you may feel more confident and want to bet more (or if you've lost you're first couple bets and want to try to make up for it by betting more on a later game) so it takes discipline to bet the same amount each time.

Xavier lost to a team where this guy gets significant minutes

http://beermugsports.com/beermug/2012/12/28/cincinnatis-david-nyarsuk-wears-jersey-backwards.html

[Nigel Tufnel]

Nigel: "Flat bet"?

Warmly,

Mel.

Mel, Chico pretty much summed it up. Its betting the same amount on each game, regardless of how much you may like it. Betting all games at $20, $30, $50, $100, etc. Lots of gamblers don't flat bet and it comes back to bite them. They may really like one game and put $100 on it...but bet 3 other games at $30. They could go 3-1 and lose $20. Or, if a gambler has had a bad day and are chasing their losses, they can compound their losses by betting a large wager to make up for their losses on the Sunday night or Monday night football games.

Paul, there is a lot of jargon in gambling that becomes second nature the longer you do it...much like in horse racing. In gambling, for instance, you have "sharps" (professional gamblers) and squares (novice betters that often go with the popular or public team). You can also buy the "hook" with increased juice on games. For instance, if a team in football is favored by 3.5 at -110, you can buy the hook and get that same team at -3 at -120 juice. So instead of betting 33/30 at -3.5, you bet 36/30 at -3. You can also get "moosed" like I did with Duke last night. People who like to bet the favorites are known as "chalk players" because "chalk" is the points the favorite is giving to the underdog....and so on and so forth.

In a previous post, I talked about how the books move lines based on teams people love to bet on. This gives Vegas a huge advantage because instead of posting the line as they think it should be set, they add a couple of points to the public team to give them an edge. Teams that the public bets huge on are the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Notre Dame. That ND line is interesting this year because it opened at Alabama -8 and is currently setting at Alabama -10. However, 65% of the bets are coming in on ND, but the line is not moving down. If I was a betting man (hehe), I would guess that the books actually think Alabama should be favored by -12/-13. But if the majority of bets are coming in on ND, why move it down? Vegas is gaining the advantage of keeping the line 2-3 points lower than they think it should be while all the ND lovers are still betting on it at -10.

Clear as mud, no?

[paulxu]

I think Dash had a hook in his investment offering, and I tried to increase my juice to $76.20 since I'm a square..but he moosed me (I think).

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think Dash had a hook in his investment offering, and I tried to increase my juice to $76.20 since I'm a square..but he moosed me (I think).

That's hilarious, Paul. Not even close...but well played nonetheless. You never want to try to increase your juice even if you're a square. Why risk more money on your investment? Those hooks don't make as much a difference as they appear to...-3 feels so much better than -3.5...but its fools' gold. Be careful with Dash. Sounds like he's a "tout." Those are the guys you see on TV or hear on the radio telling you to give them $100 and they'll give you their 100% Guaranteed Lock of the Year. What they really do is give half the people one side and the other half the other side. They make money either way. You want to piss off an experienced gambler? Use the "L" word. Man, do hardcore gamblers hate that word.

If anyone wants a great site to follow really good amateur bettors who aren't pros...let me know. I have followed this one guy in the NFL all season and only lost one week. Astonishing. He didn't place a bet on NCAA football all season. Started betting on the bowl games and is 13-5 with Minny +13 pending.

Dash...that was just a joke. Not trying to insinuate you are a crook. Just worked well with the banter. Blame Paul's lack of gamblese...hehe.

[paulxu]

Dash the Tout sounds a lot better than Dash the Nigerian businessman who wants to just borrow 10K for the weekend.