How it will shake out.

[MHettel]

OK. Some things have settled on the Conference shake-ups.

1. Pac 12 is done.
2. Big 12 is done, Missouri is staying (apparently).
3. SEC doesn't have to do anything.
4. ACC doesn't have to do anything.
5. Big 10 doesnt have to do anything.

Overall, any move by SEC (grab WVU or UofL), ACC (grab UConn and / or Rutgers) or Big 10 (UofL or maybe any other grab) will start the dominoes to put the finishing blow to the Big East. No conference wants to be the one who deals the death blow to the BE. The BE is already mortally wounded, in 2 years they lose their BCS AQ status.

So, the Big East is left licking their wounds and trying to get back up off the mat.

The ball is squarely in the BE court, and there will not be ANY other conference moves made.

Now, put yourself in the shoes of the BE Basketball schools. Pick an option.

1) Use your voting power to restrict the addition of any new football teams, essentially ridding yourself of UC, UofL, UConn and WVU which will be forced to find a new home?

2) Allow the Football schools to expand by adding full members, going up to 12 football schools meaning you add 6 new schools from a potential group of: Temple, Memphis, UCF, Army, Navy, Air Force, Boise, whatever?

3) Allow the football schools to add 6 football only programs.

Option #3 is clearly the best option. You keep the new 6 teams from gaining any voting power by making them associate members. You also get to keep UC, UofL, UConn, and WVU as basketball teams. This makes a TON of sense.

But it still needs to be refined a bit. The basketball teams have MORE leverage than to just settle on option #3. If they go option #1, they essentially get the name and rights of the Big East because the football teams would be forced to leave. BBall only would get fees from the leaving teams AND any NCAA units. But option #1 is kind of like mutual destruction for the football and basketball schools, because basketball would lose some great opponents in UConn etc, and because football would lose the BCS AQ status before they even would get a chance to see if they could get it extended beyond 2013...

...So, Bball only schools get to call the shots on some things THEY would want.

So what would the BE BBall only schools want? Put yourselves in their shoes again.

These are almost exclusively urban schools getting most of their enrollment from mostly urban / suburban kids. So they want to target some expansion into these potential markets.

Under option #3 the conference is left with 14 BBall teams. I'd position it so Memphis and Temple are added as full members, taking it to 16 teams again. But now, the balance of power is, well, balanced again, which BBall doesnt need to settle on. So, unbalance the voting power by adding 2 more BBall Only schools.

Those would be XU and Butler. This obviously increases the basketball profile of the BE as they have just added Temple, Memphis, XU and Butler. Cincy is a duplicate market, but the enrollment demographics between football and basketball are different so I really see this as a way for the BBall only schools to protect the Cincy market if / when football leaves eventually.

I dont buy any logic about Nova not wanting Temple and UC not wanting XU. In the end, Nova needs to protect their #1 asset which is basketball. Adding Temple is a strengthening move. And UC is not exactly in a position to make demands. And, bringing 2 classic in-city rivalries to the Big East makes an enormous amount of sense from a fan interest point of view.

So, you end up with a pretty damn impressive 18 team basketball league with one division. Play each team once for 17 league games.


UConn
Louisville
Villanova
Georgetown
Memphis
WVU
XU
Butler
St. Johns
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Marquette
Temple
Seton Hall
Rutgers
Providence
DePaul
USF


If / when Football realignment happens in the future the BE voting power is still with the BBall schools and they can let the 12 fooball teams walk and they are already positioned with a solid 10 team BBall only conference to carry on.

[Founding Father]

http://byu.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1277441&PT=4&PR=2

I don't think the B12 is done.

[SixFig]

Rumor on the street is Baylor will never allow BYU in, Baptists consider Mormons to be heathens.

[GoMuskies]

Rumor on the street is Baylor will never allow BYU in, Baptists consider Mormons to be heathens.

I doubt Baylor has blocking rights. And the rest of the Big XII can point and laugh at Baylor if they pretend they can stop the process.

[dc_x]

Do you no longer stand by this? (http://www.xavierhoops.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19624)

[MHettel]

Do you no longer stand by this? (http://www.xavierhoops.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19624)

Well I think it's safe to say that some of the things in my earlier prediction wont happen, so I now have THIS prediction.

Where is yours?

[xudash]

I doubt Baylor has blocking rights. And the rest of the Big XII can point and laugh at Baylor if they pretend they can stop the process.

Someone should challenge Baylor to a winner take all game of poker, to take place at a square dance, where alcohol will be served, with strippers.

[XUFan09]

Well I think it's safe to say that some of the things in my earlier prediction wont happen, so I now have THIS prediction.

Where is yours?

Props for taking the risk of being wrong when first making a prediction.

[paulxu]

I don't believe the SEC will stay at 13.
I believe that the B12 will eventually get back to 12 for the dollars they can make on a championship game.

[bleedXblue]

I don't believe the SEC will stay at 13.
I believe that the B12 will eventually get back to 12 for the dollars they can make on a championship game.

Yes and Yes

[muskienick]

Yes and Yes

and ------ YES!!!

[xubrew]

I still think the ACC wants to go out to sixteen, and all but Boston College want it to be Rutgers and UConn. We'll see if it happens.

The Big East wants to add four affiliate members for football, and two full members. I don't think they'll expand beyond that. I seriously doubt they'll look to add any non-football schools as full members.

If the Big East continues to sponsor football, I don't think they'll lose their BCS bid. It's not about whether they should or shouldn't. If it was about should and shouldn't, the BCS wouldn't exist at all. It's about will they, or won't they, and I think that they will. People that are saying the Big East will lose their bid are basing it on what they think should happen. Just becuase it should happen doesn't mean that it will. I'm guessing that it won't.

If they don't continue to sponsor football, I think the one, two, three (or however many there are) schools who play football, but get left behind, will remain full Big East members, and just be independent in football. It's better to have indie football and be in the Big East for everything else than be in C-USA or the MAC for all sports.

I don't think it's too likely that they would look to add Xavier or Butler. I just don't see them wanting to go to eighteen full members.

[MHettel]

If the Big East continues to sponsor football, I don't think they'll lose their BCS bid. It's not about whether they should or shouldn't. If it was about should and shouldn't, the BCS wouldn't exist at all. It's about will they, or won't they, and I think that they will. People that are saying the Big East will lose their bid are basing it on what they think should happen. Just becuase it should happen doesn't mean that it will. I'm guessing that it won't.

????????????????

[LA Muskie]

????????????????

In Brew's defense, I used to think the same way. I figured the rest of the conferences would harbor some guilt over the BE's demise, and their perceived role in it. I now see that there has been dissension in the ranks, and they will see this as something long overdue. Without guilt, there is simply no justification for the continued inclusion of the Big East in the BCS -- especially if WVU bolts.

[xubrew]

In Brew's defense, I used to think the same way. I figured the rest of the conferences would harbor some guilt over the BE's demise, and their perceived role in it. I now see that there has been dissension in the ranks, and they will see this as something long overdue. Without guilt, there is simply no justification for the continued inclusion of the Big East in the BCS -- especially if WVU bolts.

Who says they have to justify it??

Who is it that they have to justify it to, and what criteria do they have to meet in order to justify keeping it??

I'm not going to go so far to say that I guarantee they won't lose it, but I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion....AT ALL. The Big East is a part of the BCS. When people say things like "THEY are going to take the Big East's bid away," who the hell are "THEY"?? There is nothing in writing that says that the Big East must perform at a certain level in order to keep its bid. There's nothing in writing saying that they have to maintain X number of original members to keep the bid. People are assuming that they're going to lose it because of how weak the league will appear to be if it continues to get gutted, but that is hardly a certainty.

[XUFan09]

Who says they have to justify it??

Who is it that they have to justify it to, and what criteria do they have to meet in order to justify keeping it??

I'm not going to go so far to say that I guarantee they won't lose it, but I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion....AT ALL. The Big East is a part of the BCS. When people say things like "THEY are going to take the Big East's bid away," who the hell are "THEY"?? There is nothing in writing that says that the Big East must perform at a certain level in order to keep its bid. There's nothing in writing saying that they have to maintain X number of original members to keep the bid. People are assuming that they're going to lose it because of how weak the league will appear to be if it continues to get gutted, but that is hardly a certainty.

Sadly, this. The guidelines are at times rather vague.

[xubrew]

Sadly, this. The guidelines are at times rather vague.

I believe that is done on purpose. When the BCS was created, the Big East was one of the creators. I think they were intentionally vague in case something like this happened.

For those that haven't read Death to the BCS, you need to realize that justifications aren't exactly considered necessary.

[LA Muskie]

Who says they have to justify it??

Who is it that they have to justify it to, and what criteria do they have to meet in order to justify keeping it??

I'm not going to go so far to say that I guarantee they won't lose it, but I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion....AT ALL. The Big East is a part of the BCS. When people say things like "THEY are going to take the Big East's bid away," who the hell are "THEY"?? There is nothing in writing that says that the Big East must perform at a certain level in order to keep its bid. There's nothing in writing saying that they have to maintain X number of original members to keep the bid. People are assuming that they're going to lose it because of how weak the league will appear to be if it continues to get gutted, but that is hardly a certainty.

On the other hand, the BE has no guarantees, membership will soon be re-evaluated, the other conferences have been far from happy with their performance for quite a while now, and the TV networks have a lot of sway (if not outright say). I certainly wouldn't be sleeping soundly with the vagueness if I were the BE. If anything, this seems to give the other 5 just the excuse they've been looking for.

[QueensbridgeMF]

It will eventually create a superconference 8 team playoff. Which is what people were asking for, minus the superconferences.

[GoMuskies]

If the Big East goes, the ACC has to go, too. Over the evaluation period, the Big East has outperformed the ACC.

[Founding Father]

If the Big East goes, the ACC has to go, too. Over the evaluation period, the Big East has outperformed the ACC.

What if the BE is just:

UC
S. Florida
Rutgers
ECU
Temple
Air Force
Navy
UCF

[xubrew]

On the other hand, the BE has no guarantees, membership will soon be re-evaluated, the other conferences have been far from happy with their performance for quite a while now, and the TV networks have a lot of sway (if not outright say). I certainly wouldn't be sleeping soundly with the vagueness if I were the BE. If anything, this seems to give the other 5 just the excuse they've been looking for.

I don't disagree with any of that. What I disagree with that the Big East losing their AQ status is a foregone conclusion. "They'll be evaluated." That's all we know. We don't know by who or on what basis.

Call me cynical, but it is the BCS we're talking about. The Big East did play a big role in creating it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they made it so it would be very difficult for them to ever be cut out of it.

[xubrew]

What if the BE is just:

UC
S. Florida
Rutgers
ECU
Temple
Air Force
Navy
UCF

If anyone can show me anything in writing that states the Big East must perform at a specific level, or must retain X number of original teams, my opinion on this will drastically change. Maybe it's out there and I just haven't seen it. This isn't always the easiest stuff to dig up. If it isn't, even with a lineup that looks as weak as that lineup does, the Big East may still keep their AQ status. Throw in Boise as a partial member on top of the rest of those teams, and I think it's well over 80% likely that they'll keep it.

[paulxu]

In the "what have you done lately" rankings, the BE appears to have one team in top 25, while ACC is going for 3.

Maybe the re-evaluation will be the TV ratings, not the football ratings.

[danaandvictory]

If anyone can show me anything in writing that states the Big East must perform at a specific level, or must retain X number of original teams, my opinion on this will drastically change. Maybe it's out there and I just haven't seen it. This isn't always the easiest stuff to dig up. If it isn't, even with a lineup that looks as weak as that lineup does, the Big East may still keep their AQ status. Throw in Boise as a partial member on top of the rest of those teams, and I think it's well over 80% likely that they'll keep it.

Even beyond that, any attempt to divest the Big East of AQ status will spark a lawsuit that will hold up any movement for several years.

The only way the Big East loses AQ status in the next 2-3 years is if the football conference dissolves entirely.

[Founding Father]

If anyone can show me anything in writing that states the Big East must perform at a specific level, or must retain X number of original teams, my opinion on this will drastically change. Maybe it's out there and I just haven't seen it. This isn't always the easiest stuff to dig up. If it isn't, even with a lineup that looks as weak as that lineup does, the Big East may still keep their AQ status. Throw in Boise as a partial member on top of the rest of those teams, and I think it's well over 80% likely that they'll keep it.

I just think once the current "contract" expires things will be re-evaluated and the new BE is what CUSA was 5 years ago and 5 years ago, CUSA did not get one of the BCS bids. Other conferences will seek multiple BCS bids as well.

[LA Muskie]

Even beyond that, any attempt to divest the Big East of AQ status will spark a lawsuit that will hold up any movement for several years.

The only way the Big East loses AQ status in the next 2-3 years is if the football conference dissolves entirely.

Lawsuits only hold things up if a preliminary injunction is granted. If he system provides for a "vote" of the members, and the BE doesn't have the votes, I don't see a preliminary injunction on the horizon. The question for me is whether there are the votes. Presuming it would take 4 to oust them.

[bobbiemcgee]

What if the BE is just:

UC
S. Florida
Rutgers
ECU
Temple
Air Force
Navy
UCF

The Big Deceased has treated UCF poorly. USF, until two weeks ago, lobbied against them, now for them? UCF is broke and facing a $7 mill exit fee from CUSA. FB schools make the revenue. BB schools now have the power. Villanova doesn't want Temple as full member, only FB, so the BB's can maintain power. FB schools meet without BB schools and vice versa. Street brawl soon. CYO BB back on burner?

[xubrew]

I just think once the current "contract" expires things will be re-evaluated and the new BE is what CUSA was 5 years ago and 5 years ago, CUSA did not get one of the BCS bids. Other conferences will seek multiple BCS bids as well.

Another thing you have to realize is that in order for the BCS to exist at all, they need the majority of the FBS membership. Otherwise they can vote to disband it. That much I do know.

If certain conferences are looking for multiple AQ bids, there is no way the conferences who only get one bid will vote to support another conference getting two. Without their votes, the BCS cannot exist.

Also, they can get a majority with or without the Big East IF it adopts that eight team lineup, but they may not be able to keep it. Texas State, TX Arlington, TX San Antonio, Jacksonville State and Appalachian State are among the teams that are looking to move up. That would put the FBS at 125. In order to maintain a healthy majority, not just a minimal majority, they may need the Big East, even in a watered down format.


Ultimately, the bottom line for me is that I think the BCS, and the bowl system in general, sucks complete donkey balls. I have no faith in them that they will do what is right or what is fair. I think that they look out for themselves and step on everyone else. The Big East is a part of that. To me, I can't help but think they have done something to cover their ass. I know that's cynical, but this is the BCS we're talking about. I wouldn't expect anything any different. That's why I can't help but think the Big East will keep it's bid. I can't show you anything definitive. I just know that the BCS is a joke. The Big East keeping their bid with a lineup that weak would also be a joke. Therefore, it makes perfect sense to me that they will keep it.

[paulxu]

and Appalachian State are among the teams that are looking to move up.

Trivia note: App State lost to Wofford (enrollment 1,500) last week. You might remember that school from last year's basketball schedule. Wofford has only lost to Clemson this year.

[GoMuskies]

Wasn't Wofford leading Clem(p)son at halftime?

[Founding Father]

Another thing you have to realize is that in order for the BCS to exist at all, they need the majority of the FBS membership. Otherwise they can vote to disband it. That much I do know.

If certain conferences are looking for multiple AQ bids, there is no way the conferences who only get one bid will vote to support another conference getting two. Without their votes, the BCS cannot exist.

Also, they can get a majority with or without the Big East IF it adopts that eight team lineup, but they may not be able to keep it. Texas State, TX Arlington, TX San Antonio, Jacksonville State and Appalachian State are among the teams that are looking to move up. That would put the FBS at 125. In order to maintain a healthy majority, not just a minimal majority, they may need the Big East, even in a watered down format.


Ultimately, the bottom line for me is that I think the BCS, and the bowl system in general, sucks complete donkey balls. I have no faith in them that they will do what is right or what is fair. I think that they look out for themselves and step on everyone else. The Big East is a part of that. To me, I can't help but think they have done something to cover their ass. I know that's cynical, but this is the BCS we're talking about. I wouldn't expect anything any different. That's why I can't help but think the Big East will keep it's bid. I can't show you anything definitive. I just know that the BCS is a joke. The Big East keeping their bid with a lineup that weak would also be a joke. Therefore, it makes perfect sense to me that they will keep it.

Before all of this shakeup wasn't the Mountain West looking to get a BCS bid next time around and basically try to say they deserved it over the BE or at least as much as the BE did?

As far as I can see the BCS can work just fine with 5 BCS leagues and some at large bids.

[GoMuskies]

Before all of this shakeup wasn't the Mountain West looking to get a BCS bid next time around and basically try to say they deserved it over the BE or at least as much as the BE did?


The problem for them is that it was objectively not even close to true. The Big East was rated closer to the SEC in conference strength than it ever was the MWC.

[Founding Father]

The problem for them is that it was objectively not even close to true. The Big East was rated closer to the SEC in conference strength than it ever was the MWC.

But they were going to try for it, correct?

The Mountain West v. the new BE would be pretty close.

[xubrew]

Trivia note: App State lost to Wofford (enrollment 1,500) last week. You might remember that school from last year's basketball schedule. Wofford has only lost to Clemson this year.

Wofford's football team is really good. They're ranked #5 in the FCS rankings and will face top ranked Georgia Southern later this year.

Wofford's basketball team appeared to be solid last year. I actually predicted they'd play their way into a position to get an at-large bid, but that didn't come to fruition. Mike Young is a really good coach. The team lost four starters, including Noah Dahlman, who was arguably the best player in the conference. He played 49 minutes against Xavier and had 33 points. They won't be quite as good this year. That may be the understatement of the year.

On that note, I hate the BCS, but I love the FCS.

[xubrew]

But they were going to try for it, correct?

The Mountain West v. the new BE would be pretty close.

They've been trying this entire time and it has never worked. I don't htink it will work the next time either.

[Founding Father]

They've been trying this entire time and it has never worked. I don't htink it will work the next time either.

I think they have a case against the new BE. Hopefully we will get to find out.

[GoMuskies]

I think they have a case against the new BE. Hopefully we will get to find out.

The new MWC without Utah, TCU and BYU will have no case.

[xcellentx]

Look, this is all about money. We have seen that with the creation of the BCS and with the conference realignment. If the BSC conferences decide that some new creation of the Big East will 1) not be able to fulfill the ticket allotments for the game, 2) not be able to get the ratings they expect from a game and that the sponsors expect, the will find a way to get rid of the Big East as a BCS conference.

The BCS may not need the Big East to have a majority in the FBS. If these other BCS conferences keep stealing their members, then they will already have them. Utah and TCU already increase the number since they come from outside the BCS. If UCONN and WVU leave it will be to a BCS conference, and Louisville is already getting looks from the Big 12 and Rutgers was in consideration from the Big 10.

Who is to say the C-USA or the MWC don't add teams. What if the MWC adds Houston, SMU, and then takes Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno St? Somehow convinces BYU to come back? That could be more attractive to the BCS then the Big East without WVU, UCONN, Louisville, etc. The smaller conferences may be looking to make moves too. Not saying it will happen, but who knows these days.

This hypothetical conference is not going to hold up to long term scrutiny.
UC
S. Florida
Rutgers
ECU
Temple
Air Force
Navy
UCF

[xubrew]

I think they have a case against the new BE. Hopefully we will get to find out.

FF, I'm not saying they don't have a case. I'm saying it doesn't matter.

In the entire history of the BCS, and the bowl coalition before that, and the bowl alliance before that, what is it that makes you think being fair is in any way a part of the equation??

I'm not saying that it's fair for the Big East to keep their bid. I'm saying that it is likely that they will. Big difference.

[AdamtheFlyer]

The Big East is being controlled by the basketball schools right now, they simply have more votes. They're not going to let a bunch of football only members in, meaning they could get a smaller share of less money. We can't forget, the Big East lacks a long term TV deal and just lost two pretty big business athletic departments in Syracuse and Pitt. They have zero leverage. Their next TV deal could be peanuts.

The potential AQ status of the Big East is irrelevant. There's a better than 50% chance Big East football doesn't exist in 3 years. The Big 12 will come after Louisville and WVU, along with perhaps Cincy or South Florida depending on what happens with BYU. Whether Mizzou leaves or not, they won't stay at 9 or 10. They will go to 12 so they can have a title game and look for a TV deal at or near what the PAC 12 just got.

The longer this goes, the closer we get to the basketball only Big East schools cutting bait, calling up 3-4 other programs and forming their own league. Big East TV dollars shrink every day they go without a TV deal. Before long it will make more sense to break out, form a league, and present it to ESPN and CBS Sports for a deal. Less overall money, but the BBall schools get to keep all of it and split it with fewer programs. Overall each school will end up taking in pretty similar dollars. I think this option is inevitable, it's just a matter of seeing if it happens under the BE umbrella after the football schools bail, or a new league name once the bball schools wise up. CBS is really trying to invest in college sports and get the channel on as many basic cable tiers as possible. I believe they lost rights to some ACC hoops games when the ACC signed their last ESPN deal, perhaps the same with the PAC 12. They'd back up a Brinks truck to get BE basketball schools as their flagship of college hoops. Right now they hitch the wagon on CUSA and the A10, simply because Memphis, Xavier, Dayton and Temple are the best programs available. You take the BE bball schools and add X, UD, Butler, etc, and they'd shat bricks with glee.

[GoMuskies]

I'm pretty sure the basketball onlies aren't going anywhere so long as UConn, Louisviille and WV are still part of the club. And they may go to some wacky lengths to keep them part of the club. The basketballers are desperately trying to avoid a mid-major label, and trading UConn, Louisville and WV for Dayton, Xavier and Butler isn't going to help in that fight.

[AdamtheFlyer]

I'm pretty sure the basketball onlies aren't going anywhere so long as UConn, Louisviille and WV are still part of the club. And they may go to some wacky lengths to keep them part of the club. The basketballers are desperately trying to avoid a mid-major label, and trading UConn, Louisville and WV for Dayton, Xavier and Butler isn't going to help in that fight.

They want a 15 year commitment, something they will never get. Football schools are trying to line up 12 football members simply as a backup if the Big 12 and ACC don't come calling. Basketball schools will hold up every move until the football schools sign the paper or bail. They aren't signing the paper...

At this point it's not necessarily about saving Louisville, WVU, UConn...it's about not getting stuck with UCF and others. If... er...when the football schools bail, the basketball schools want total control over where they land and who they take in, along with all of the buyout money if schools do leave.

[LA Muskie]

I'm pretty sure the basketball onlies aren't going anywhere so long as UConn, Louisviille and WV are still part of the club. And they may go to some wacky lengths to keep them part of the club. The basketballers are desperately trying to avoid a mid-major label, and trading UConn, Louisville and WV for Dayton, Xavier and Butler isn't going to help in that fight.
I agree with this. I had the exact same conversation with my brother yesterday. While the BE breakup may seem like the holy grail to us, to the likes of Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Marquette, and St. John's it's a huge demotion. Whether that's true or not, it's the perception and in this case perception is reality.

That's not to say that a breakup won't happen. But for those who think the BB schools are looking to use their newfound "voting power" to force the FB schools' hands, well that's not entirely true. They may have more say at the table, but they want to keep the conference intact (particularly maintaining UConn) almost as much.

[MHettel]

[QUOTE= Right now they hitch the wagon on CUSA and the A10, simply because Memphis, Xavier, Dayton and Temple are the best programs available. You take the BE bball schools and add X, UD, Butler, etc, and they'd shat bricks with glee.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, UD should be mentioned in the same sentence as Temple, and XU and Memphis and Butler.

OK.

[AdamtheFlyer]

Yeah, UD should be mentioned in the same sentence as Temple, and XU and Memphis and Butler.

OK.

In a basketball business sense, X, Memphis and UD are the top 3 schools CBS college can air right now.

[AdamtheFlyer]

I agree with this. I had the exact same conversation with my brother yesterday. While the BE breakup may seem like the holy grail to us, to the likes of Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Marquette, and St. John's it's a huge demotion. Whether that's true or not, it's the perception and in this case perception is reality.

That's not to say that a breakup won't happen. But for those who think the BB schools are looking to use their newfound "voting power" to force the FB schools' hands, well that's not entirely true. They may have more say at the table, but they want to keep the conference intact (particularly maintaining UConn) almost as much.

But they are trying to force their hands. They want to significantly increase the buyout and get a long term commitment on paper before they will agree to add new and football only members. They don't want to add schools and watch the money programs leave a year later, and they will if and when the offers come, sticking them with essentially CUSA football schools, splitting very little revenue 16-20 ways.

They're telling the football schools to poop or get off the pot. Commit or go. One way or they other they are protecting themselves and making sure they control their own future.

[paulxu]

Wasn't Wofford leading Clem(p)son at halftime?

Yes indeed.


Wofford's football team is really good. They're ranked #5 in the FCS rankings and will face top ranked Georgia Southern later this year.

They run the wishbone-thighbone wacky offense. Need to be high SAT school to run that stuff (Navy, Georgia Tech, Wofford). A couple of years ago the average SAT at Wofford was greater than the total student body number.

Fabulous long time coach Mike Ayers. Has a Marine mentality. Use to have pipeline to Cincy Catholic schools...got players from St. X, Moeller, etc. Don't know if he still does.

Mike Young good young BB coach, who did have until this year Skip's son on staff.

[LA Muskie]

But they are trying to force their hands. They want to significantly increase the buyout and get a long term commitment on paper before they will agree to add new and football only members. They don't want to add schools and watch the money programs leave a year later, and they will if and when the offers come, sticking them with essentially CUSA football schools, splitting very little revenue 16-20 ways.

They're telling the football schools to poop or get off the pot. Commit or go. One way or they other they are protecting themselves and making sure they control their own future.
Oh, I get it. They should be taking that position. The question is whether they are bluffing, and whether the football schools call their bluff. Big game of poker going on right now...

[SM#24]

In a basketball business sense, X, Memphis and UD are the top 3 schools CBS college can air right now.

Not Temple ?

[AdamtheFlyer]

Not Temple ?

Unintentionally left them off. Clearly those 4 are the programs CBS college leans on. They will have the most appearances on the national channel and regional broadcasts.

[AdamtheFlyer]

Oh, I get it. They should be taking that position. The question is whether they are bluffing, and whether the football schools call their bluff. Big game of poker going on right now...

I don't think it's possible for them to bluff. They're all in as the small blind with 7-2 off suit. All 6 remaining football schools will leave as soon as an offer comes. Basketball schools have no choice but to draw a line in the sand and wait to see what happens after Mizzou makes its choice. I still think Louisville and probably WVU gets a Big 12 invite by the start of the 2012-2013 academic year regardless of what Mizzou does. Big 12 knows it has to get back to 12 before the next round of BCS and TV talks (after 2013) to remain viable to ESPN and Fox Sports. Have to dish out invites within a year so they can present a full league by 2015.

[MHettel]

In a basketball business sense, X, Memphis and UD are the top 3 schools CBS college can air right now.

Again, Ok.

WTF does Dayton even bring? It's barely a medium sized city, and it's sits in the shadow of an actual city.

Why not add Toledo? Or Kent State? Heck, Kent state made the Elite 8 in my lifetime. Hell I live near Tacoma Washington. Maybe they should add TCC.

UD has done nothing. Seriously.

If this is about TV dollars, then take one look at the target demographics. 18-35 year old men. Has anyone in that demographic ever seen UD accomplish ANYTHING in their lifetime?

I'm sure it's hard to deal with, but you really should face the facts. The ONLY WAY UD comes out of this better off than they already are is if XU lets them.

[waggy]

is if XU lets them.

Please get over yourself. UD will rise or fall on its own merits.

[LA Muskie]

I don't think it's possible for them to bluff. They're all in as the small blind with 7-2 off suit. All 6 remaining football schools will leave as soon as an offer comes. Basketball schools have no choice but to draw a line in the sand and wait to see what happens after Mizzou makes its choice. I still think Louisville and probably WVU gets a Big 12 invite by the start of the 2012-2013 academic year regardless of what Mizzou does. Big 12 knows it has to get back to 12 before the next round of BCS and TV talks (after 2013) to remain viable to ESPN and Fox Sports. Have to dish out invites within a year so they can present a full league by 2015.
I disagree. It's definitely possible for them to bluff. In fact, I think they probably are. They do not want to even risk being perceived as a mid-major basketball conference. I think they find a way to stick together even if they lose Louisville and WVU.

If you ask me, the final straw is UConn. If they lose UConn in addition to those other two, I think all bets are off. But there are a lot of contingencies there.


First, Missouri has to bolt. The longer this takes, the less likely I think it is to happen.

If Missouri leaves the Big XII, I agree that WVU and Louisville will join the Big XII. (And even if Missouri sticks around, there is a chance they could go, but I tend to think the Big XII will try to calm things down for a few years if Missouri stays).

Then the ACC will court UConn and Notre Dame. All of a sudden, football has the power again. If they leave, the BE blows up. If they stay, they stay on football terms to keep the BE together. (Yes, Notre Dame will have the clout even though it won't actually be contributing its football conference to the conference.) And I think they probably are more of an informal package deal than people would like to think.


So many things could happen to derail all of this -- including Notre Dame and UConn using their power to gain effective control over the conference.

[xubrew]

Again, Ok.

WTF does Dayton even bring? It's barely a medium sized city, and it's sits in the shadow of an actual city.

Why not add Toledo? Or Kent State? Heck, Kent state made the Elite 8 in my lifetime. Hell I live near Tacoma Washington. Maybe they should add TCC.

UD has done nothing. Seriously.

If this is about TV dollars, then take one look at the target demographics. 18-35 year old men. Has anyone in that demographic ever seen UD accomplish ANYTHING in their lifetime?

I'm sure it's hard to deal with, but you really should face the facts. The ONLY WAY UD comes out of this better off than they already are is if XU lets them.

For starters, UD fields more sports that the Big East sanctions than Xavier does. They also have more scholarships and better facilities for the non-revenue sports. That's something. That's not a deal breaker, but it is something that is very important that they have and that Xavier currently doesn't.

Having said that, I don't think the Big East is going to extend any offers to anyone without football. The basketball onlies are not going to leave the Big East. They made $24 million in tournament revenue last year. If they dissolve the conference or leave it entirely, they forfeit all that...not to mention all the revenue they generated for the previous years. In addition, they stand to make a minimum $5 million off of every school that leaves. If they dissolve the conference, or leave themselves, they don't get any of that either. If anything, they'll be paying out that much instead of receiving that much.

The basketball onlies are actually in a pretty good position right now. The league is only looking to add two full members, and whoever it is the basketball onlies would have to vote them in. As far as adding football affiliates, I don't think they'd have anything to do with that.

If the league drops football, most of the football schools will either land in another conference, or remain full BE members and just be independent in football. Even if all the football schools do leave for otehr conferences, they'll still have eight teams and the Big East name and revenue. That's a pretty good worst case scenario. With Notre Dame still being a full member, they're not in a bad position in regards to a TV deal.

[MHettel]

For starters, UD fields more sports that the Big East sanctions than Xavier does. They also have more scholarships and better facilities for the non-revenue sports. That's something. That's not a deal breaker, but it is something that is very important that they have and that Xavier currently doesn't.



Keep your eye on the ball.

1. It's about football
2. If you dont have football, it's about basketball.


But overall, it's about money. And any conference affiliaition decisions based on the "non-revenue sports" kind of makes ZERO sense. They are called non-revenue sports for a reason...

In the end, you gotta have something to offer if you want to be included. The SEC and Big10 and Pac 12 and ACC are entirely fine slowly dismantling either the Big 12 or Big East or both. Nobody wants to flat out destroy these conferences, but "death by 1000 paper cuts" would be acceptable.

Texas has something to offer and so does Oklahoma. If they went to the Pac 12 or Big 10, the Big 12 and Big East would have merged whatever was left and we'd be down to 5 "major"conferences.

The bottom line is very simple.

The football shuffling is not quite over, and the Big East Basketball teams now get a seat at the negotiating table. They want to keep the solid Basketball teams in the BE around without diluting basketball by adding and bottom feeder bball teams.

So, this next round of BE shuffling (that must happen) will take on some of the shape of the BE basketball school demands. It has to. My view is that they bring XU and Butler in as members to round out the conference in case the BE football teams later leave (or they vote them out). A Basketball conference with GTown, SJU, Nova, Marquette, XU and Butler would be solid if left to go alone.

In the end, UD is UD. A mediocre program with no recent history in a mediocre town.

You gotta have something to offer, and it aint good non-revenue teams.

[xudash]

The core driver for a non-football school is how well positioned its basketball program is when football realignment trickles down to and through the BE and beyond.

It is about program attributes and a program's ability to attract television sets.

A lot of dialogue here makes the mistake of focusing on things as they exist now. As an example, it is understood that Xavier doesn't field the same number of sports as some or most of the BE athletic departments. Two thoughts on that: [1] Xavier keeps improving almost every sport it does offer, ranging from golf to tennis to soccer to baseball, not to mention the stalwart hoops programs; and [2] Xavier would invest more to add the requisite number of sports that a new BE hoops-centric conference would settle into. As far as the latter is concerned, Georgetown, as an example, probably would have to cut back from 29 sports after not being able to suckle from the BCS teet any longer.

UD is a hard deal to read in all this. UD has everything it needs save for hoops success and a desirable television market. Assuming no better options, but the need to have one more program added, UD would fill the bill.

[xubrew]

The core driver for a non-football school is how well positioned its basketball program is when football realignment trickles down to and through the BE and beyond.

It is about program attributes and a program's ability to attract television sets.

A lot of dialogue here makes the mistake of focusing on things as they exist now. As an example, it is understood that Xavier doesn't field the same number of sports as some or most of the BE athletic departments. Two thoughts on that: [1] Xavier keeps improving almost every sport it does offer, ranging from golf to tennis to soccer to baseball, not to mention the stalwart hoops programs; and [2] Xavier would invest more to add the requisite number of sports that a new BE hoops-centric conference would settle into. As far as the latter is concerned, Georgetown, as an example, probably would have to cut back from 29 sports after not being able to suckle from the BCS teet any longer.

UD is a hard deal to read in all this. UD has everything it needs save for hoops success and a desirable television market. Assuming no better options, but the need to have one more program added, UD would fill the bill.

Dash, I don't particularly disagree with any of this.

I'm not saying the non-revenue sports are the core driver, as you put it. I am saying that they are a factor. MHettel is being COMPLETELY dismissive about it.

Marquette is adding two sports, and increasing funding in their other olympic sports, basically because the Big East told them to. Seton Hall, I believe, was given a similiar timeline. For someone to think that the non-revenue sports don't matter to the Big East AT ALL, and haven't been a point of emphasis recently, then they just haven't been paying attention.

I'm not saying Xavier wouldn't be invited because they lack non-revenue sports. I'm saying that it will be part of what is evaluated, and if they are added, they'll be told the same thing. They need more sports, and they need to up the budgets in some of the sports they currently have. Without question, that would be a mandate. Dayton is in better shape in this regard.

Like I said earlier, I don't particularly think they'll look to add Xavier, or Dayton, or Butler, or anyone else, especially if one or more of the football schools don't land in another football conference and opt to remain in the Big East. I find it almost ludicrous to believe that the basketball schools would make the demand that Xavier and Butler be added to the league. It makes sense to wish that. It makes no sense at all to expect that. They will likely have demands or terms. Adding XU and BU probably won't be included among them, especially if the league continues to sponsor football.

[X-band '01]

I'm guessing that if Xavier could add anything without having to build new facilities, could lacrosse and/or field hockey even be possible?

Xavier doesn't even have softball, but then again they don't even have a softball field at this point.

[waggy]

I find it almost ludicrous to believe that the basketball schools would make the demand that Xavier and Butler be added to the league. It makes sense to wish that. It makes no sense at all to expect that. They will likely have demands or terms. Adding XU and BU probably won't be included among them, especially if the league continues to sponsor football.

Absolutely. With 8 non-football playing schools, they are looking at a 20 team conference just to have 12 playing football with a championship game. The hybrid model had it's benefits for the members, but on the other hand the bball schools are in the way when it comes to developing a real football conference. No way any more bball only schools get added until football goes away. Well, I guess it could happen, but I see at as a very very low possibility.

[XUFan09]

They want a 15 year commitment, something they will never get. Football schools are trying to line up 12 football members simply as a backup if the Big 12 and ACC don't come calling. Basketball schools will hold up every move until the football schools sign the paper or bail. They aren't signing the paper...

At this point it's not necessarily about saving Louisville, WVU, UConn...it's about not getting stuck with UCF and others. If... er...when the football schools bail, the basketball schools want total control over where they land and who they take in, along with all of the buyout money if schools do leave.

Maybe they are thinking 15-year commitment or bust.

But this is also a possibility and IMO more likely: The basketball schools are practicing Negotiating 101. You don't ask for what you think is a reasonable deal that's beneficial to you. You go for your dream deal and try to work your opponent up to the reasonable deal or better. If I go to check out a used car that I think is worth about $10,000, I'm not going to come in with an offer to the seller for 10k. I'll propose something like $7,000 or $8,000 and then I'll see how low I can get it after the haggling.

[bobbiemcgee]

Absolutely. With 8 non-football playing schools, they are looking at a 20 team conference just to have 12 playing football with a championship game. The hybrid model had it's benefits for the members, but on the other hand the bball schools are in the way when it comes to developing a real football conference. No way any more bball only schools get added until football goes away. Well, I guess it could happen, but I see at as a very very low possibility.

Well, if the BB schools have the voting edge, why wouldn't they want to add more BB schools? More votes. More power over the FB schools.

[waggy]

Well, if the BB schools have the voting edge, why wouldn't they want to add more BB schools? More votes. More power over the FB schools.

You need 12 teams to have a conference championship game. How big you want this conference to be? 22 teams?

Good luck with that.

[LA Muskie]

Well, if the BB schools have the voting edge, why wouldn't they want to add more BB schools? More votes. More power over the FB schools.

This wrongly assumes that football is the antithesis of the non-football school. Not so. Assuming a fair split of revenues, they can make a very happy marriage. That, more than anything else, is what I think the basketball schools are looking for.

[xudash]

Dash, I don't particularly disagree with any of this.

I'm not saying the non-revenue sports are the core driver, as you put it. I am saying that they are a factor. MHettel is being COMPLETELY dismissive about it.

Marquette is adding two sports, and increasing funding in their other olympic sports, basically because the Big East told them to. Seton Hall, I believe, was given a similiar timeline. For someone to think that the non-revenue sports don't matter to the Big East AT ALL, and haven't been a point of emphasis recently, then they just haven't been paying attention.

I'm not saying Xavier wouldn't be invited because they lack non-revenue sports. I'm saying that it will be part of what is evaluated, and if they are added, they'll be told the same thing. They need more sports, and they need to up the budgets in some of the sports they currently have. Without question, that would be a mandate. Dayton is in better shape in this regard.

Like I said earlier, I don't particularly think they'll look to add Xavier, or Dayton, or Butler, or anyone else, especially if one or more of the football schools don't land in another football conference and opt to remain in the Big East. I find it almost ludicrous to believe that the basketball schools would make the demand that Xavier and Butler be added to the league. It makes sense to wish that. It makes no sense at all to expect that. They will likely have demands or terms. Adding XU and BU probably won't be included among them, especially if the league continues to sponsor football.

I believe we're basically on the same page with all this brew.

It's clear that, assuming a BE hoops-centric conference comes about now or sooner than later, and assuming that conference is able to position itself as a player with a reasonable TV contract (i.e. more revenue for Xavier from television than what Xavier enjoys now from the A10 package, in particular), then Xavier would be expected and would be better positioned to add the sports necessary for that conference. That was the gist of my point: we don't have the necessary sports now, but given the athletic department talent that we have, we are well positioned to address those deficiencies if given the opportunity to address them.

For that reason, as programs are evaluated for inclusion primarily based on the power of their flagship sport - basketball - it will be evident to anyone capable of evaluating this stuff that Xavier can address this aspect of its overall athletic operation.

[xudash]

I've never read a sadder scrolled message than what has gone across the screen tonight, during the SC/Cal game, regarding the BE and its dance with Boise State. Sad as in pathetic; not sad as in it makes me sad.

The BE will NOT make it to 12 teams for a football play-off. It just won't. The market would be dealing with a CUSA level, at best, product. The BCS will be looking at the opportunity to delete an AQ placeholder as all this runs its course.

Beyond that, the BE exit fee increase will not come about.

Anywhere from 1 to 3 teams will leave from here, and probably sooner than later; certainly within twelve months.

That may leave programs like UConn, Rutgers, UC and USF stranded in the BE for all sports but football, but that situation won't last long.

So, if it comes to pass that some football schools are hanging around in the BE, the old concern about UC blocking Xavier is out the window, because the voting and the effort will focus clearly on solving for basketball for the long term at that point. Hell, even UC's new AD might understand the value of incorporating the Skyline Crosstown Shootout into a conference.

Everyone knows what's at stake with the accumulated NCAA Units and the exit fee money to be collected. It may take more time to sort out because of that, but it has to be clear to everyone that the BE will end up being about basketball, not football.

[MHettel]

I've never read a sadder scrolled message than what has gone across the screen tonight, during the SC/Cal game, regarding the BE and its dance with Boise State. Sad as in pathetic; not sad as in it makes me sad.

The BE will NOT make it to 12 teams for a football play-off. It just won't. The market would be dealing with a CUSA level, at best, product. The BCS will be looking at the opportunity to delete an AQ placeholder as all this runs its course.

Beyond that, the BE exit fee increase will not come about.

Anywhere from 1 to 3 teams will leave from here, and probably sooner than later; certainly within twelve months.

That may leave programs like UConn, Rutgers, UC and USF stranded in the BE for all sports but football, but that situation won't last long.

So, if it comes to pass that some football schools are hanging around in the BE, the old concern about UC blocking Xavier is out the window, because the voting and the effort will focus clearly on solving for basketball for the long term at that point. Hell, even UC's new AD might understand the value of incorporating the Skyline Crosstown Shootout into a conference.

Everyone knows what's at stake with the accumulated NCAA Units and the exit fee money to be collected. It may take more time to sort out because of that, but it has to be clear to everyone that the BE will end up being about basketball, not football.

now you're thinkiing!

[xubrew]

Anywhere from 1 to 3 teams will leave from here, and probably sooner than later; certainly within twelve months.

That may leave programs like UConn, Rutgers, UC and USF stranded in the BE for all sports but football, but that situation won't last long.

So, if it comes to pass that some football schools are hanging around in the BE, the old concern about UC blocking Xavier is out the window, because the voting and the effort will focus clearly on solving for basketball for the long term at that point. Hell, even UC's new AD might understand the value of incorporating the Skyline Crosstown Shootout into a conference.

Everyone knows what's at stake with the accumulated NCAA Units and the exit fee money to be collected. It may take more time to sort out because of that, but it has to be clear to everyone that the BE will end up being about basketball, not football.

That would put the membership at twelve, and the twelve of them would share $20 million in exit fees courtesy of the four schools that are leaving, and get a bigger chunk of all the tournament revenue that is coming their way for the previous six years.

ND, DePaul, Marquette, UC, USF, Providence, UConn, Georgetown, Nova, Saint John's, Seton Hall, Rutgers.

It's not as strong as the current Big East, but it's hardly a league that needs fixing or adjusting. I'm not convinced at all that group would look to add anyone.

I don't think the four football schools would leave for a conference unless it was to a BCS league. They would just be independent in football. Hell, all the bowls that were tied in with what used to be the Big East could work out some sort of contengency plan with them. They really wouldn't be that badly off.

Even if UConn and Rutgers were to leave for the ACC, the membership would still be at ten, and one of those teams would be UC. They may look to go back out to twelve, but not necessarily. There's no need for a twelve team/two division format if there isn't a football championship game.

[xcellentx]

That would put the membership at twelve, and the twelve of them would share $20 million in exit fees courtesy of the four schools that are leaving, and get a bigger chunk of all the tournament revenue that is coming their way for the previous six years.

ND, DePaul, Marquette, UC, USF, Providence, UConn, Georgetown, Nova, Saint John's, Seton Hall, Rutgers.

It's not as strong as the current Big East, but it's hardly a league that needs fixing or adjusting. I'm not convinced at all that group would look to add anyone.

I don't think the four football schools would leave for a conference unless it was to a BCS league. They would just be independent in football. Hell, all the bowls that were tied in with what used to be the Big East could work out some sort of contengency plan with them. They really wouldn't be that badly off.

Even if UConn and Rutgers were to leave for the ACC, the membership would still be at ten, and one of those teams would be UC. They may look to go back out to twelve, but not necessarily. There's no need for a twelve team/two division format if there isn't a football championship game.

The problem is that even though those Football schools are decent, going independent would be a horrible idea. Is UC going to get games on TV as an independent? If this is all about money, being in a league in which you share revenues is important. If this is what is going to shake out, these football schools are going to be begging/pleading to get into other BCS conferences.

UConn is too valuable as a brand to be left as an independent and will be snatched up by someone. Rutgers is still desirable even if it is just to get the Big Ten Network into the Basic Package in New York and New Jersey, and I could see them getting snatched up. As much as ND wants to stay independent, they are going to see the light eventually and get into a conference. There is so much money to be made all around if they went to the Big Ten that I foresee that happening. UC might still be taken by the Big 12.

Unfortunetly USF might get left out of all this, even though you could argue they have probably had the best football teams over the past 5 years.

Even if that hybrid conference does exist, that will be far from stable. Even if football independence is seen as the smart move short term, any of those teams would jump at the thought to go to a BCS conference. I just don't see anyway long term this football/basketball hybrid is going to last if they lose one or two more teams.

[xubrew]

If they get an invite from a BCS conference they'd join. I don't disagree with that at all. IF they don't, they'll remain in the Big East. It's not worth walking away from tens of millions of dollars, and paying a $5 million dollar exit fee on top of that, to join a league like CUSA or the MAC.

They can get football games on TV. UC gets OOC games on TV now. I don't see why that wouldn't continue. They potentailly wouldn't have to share it with anyone else....or maybe they would share it. They would have the option of negotiating the TV deal from the conference includes X number of home football games for UC, Rutgers, UConn and USF (or whoever it is that's left over). They'd have to share some of the football revenue with the rest of the league, but they'd still be walking away with more than what they'd get if they joined a non-BCS league.

Even if the only games they can get on are shown on networks like CBS College or VS, it's better to play on VS and keep all the money for yourself as an independent than it is to play on VS and share all that money with the rest of your conference, which is what would happen if they joined a league like CUSA.

As far as ND joining the Big Ten, I just don't see it. I'd be less surprised to see them in the ACC than I would the Big Ten, but ultimately they're doing just fine on their own. As far as ND seeing the light one day, I think they already have. Maybe some day everyone else will see the light and conclude that they're doing just fine on their own. They like getting to march to their own drum, and they don't want to join a football conference.

[xudash]

If they get an invite from a BCS conference they'd join. I don't disagree with that at all. IF they don't, they'll remain in the Big East. It's not worth walking away from tens of millions of dollars, and paying a $5 million dollar exit fee on top of that, to join a league like CUSA or the MAC.

They can get football games on TV. UC gets OOC games on TV now. I don't see why that wouldn't continue. They potentailly wouldn't have to share it with anyone else....or maybe they would share it. They would have the option of negotiating the TV deal from the conference includes X number of home football games for UC, Rutgers, UConn and USF (or whoever it is that's left over). They'd have to share some of the football revenue with the rest of the league, but they'd still be walking away with more than what they'd get if they joined a non-BCS league.

Even if the only games they can get on are shown on networks like CBS College or VS, it's better to play on VS and keep all the money for yourself as an independent than it is to play on VS and share all that money with the rest of your conference, which is what would happen if they joined a league like CUSA.

As far as ND joining the Big Ten, I just don't see it. I'd be less surprised to see them in the ACC than I would the Big Ten, but ultimately they're doing just fine on their own. As far as ND seeing the light one day, I think they already have. Maybe some day everyone else will see the light and conclude that they're doing just fine on their own. They like getting to march to their own drum, and they don't want to join a football conference.

At the end of the day, I believe the BE football schools want and need a logical conference arrangement. They just do, because they're not ND or BYU and the whole world has gone to the conference gig.

So I don't see the BE 12 hodge-podge staying together, assuming it breaks that way to begin with.

And now for some crazy data - select 2010 and take a look at UC and anyone else of interest to you:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ncaa-finances.htm

BTW, keep in mind that the data do not reflect the latest rounds of television money negotiations.

[xavierj]

As far as ND joining the Big Ten, I just don't see it. I'd be less surprised to see them in the ACC than I would the Big Ten, but ultimately they're doing just fine on their own. As far as ND seeing the light one day, I think they already have. Maybe some day everyone else will see the light and conclude that they're doing just fine on their own. They like getting to march to their own drum, and they don't want to join a football conference.

This is correct.

ND is in the top 10 of all NCAA football programs as far as generating revenue. As for profit goes they are #1 in all of college football because they do not have to share. They bring in roughly $40,000,000 just from football. That is as much as UC brings in from all sports. There is only one team in the Big 10 that brings in as much as ND according to Forbes. Why in the world would ND want to join a football conference? ND is who they are and they are not stupid. They will never join a football conference in our lifetimes in my opinion.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sportsmoney/2011/04/19/how-does-notre-dame-do-financially/

[xcellentx]

This is correct.

ND is in the top 10 of all NCAA football programs as far as generating revenue. As for profit goes they are #1 in all of college football because they do not have to share. They bring in roughly $40,000,000 just from football. That is as much as UC brings in from all sports. There is only one team in the Big 10 that brings in as much as ND according to Forbes. Why in the world would ND want to join a football conference? ND is who they are and they are not stupid. They will never join a football conference in our lifetimes in my opinion.

Except ND makes less money from their contract than every Big Ten School. Older article, but goes into the point why ND would want to go to a conference:
http://http://www.aolnews.com/2009/06/15/as-notre-dames-tv-money-dwindles-so-too-should-its-independenc/


Chances are, you still think that Notre Dame is banking major revenue from this agreement in comparison to other teams. Chances are, you're wrong. What do Vanderbilt and Northwestern have in common when it comes to football? Answer: They likely both get more money for their televised football games than Notre Dame does. As does every other team in the Big Ten and the SEC.

It goes on to say that ND made around 9 million in 2008 from their NBC TV deal. Add their Big East TV money, they get roughly 11.35 million a year from TV.

In 2008 Big Ten school banked over 15 million. That is around 4 million a year difference. And that is number is only getting higher

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/29356/big-ten-schools-see-increased-revenue


Because the Big Ten divides revenue pretty much equally among its members -- Nebraska won't receive a full financial share immediately -- the numbers in Durando's report can be applied to other schools.
The conference will pay Illinois a record $22.6 million, with $7.9 million coming from the network, according to figures provided by the university. That's a 21 percent increase over last year's $6.5 million share from the BTN. ... The breakdown of the Big Ten's payment to Illinois includes $16.6 million from television, of which $8.2 million comes from ESPN and ABC. Thus, the BTN, which has been on the air four years, has nearly matched the more established networks in its ability to fill university coffers.
As Bennett recently posted, the most recent Big Ten tax form, from the 2009-10 fiscal year, showed each school received more than $20 million from the conference. Big Ten schools received a bit more than $19 million each for the 2008-09 fiscal year. The 2010-11 tax form won't be available until March, but Durando's report shows an even bigger revenue increase for the league and its members.

I don't know what ND is making this year from NBC, but Big Ten school are making almost as much just from the Big Ten Network as ND made from NBC in 2008. I think that doubling your TV revenue is more then enough incentive to join. Not saying they will soon, but I think it will happen. TV revenues from these large conferences are only going to go up. Can you imagine the Big Ten's TV deal with ND in there as well?

[xcellentx]

They can get football games on TV. UC gets OOC games on TV now. I don't see why that wouldn't continue. They potentailly wouldn't have to share it with anyone else....or maybe they would share it. They would have the option of negotiating the TV deal from the conference includes X number of home football games for UC, Rutgers, UConn and USF (or whoever it is that's left over). They'd have to share some of the football revenue with the rest of the league, but they'd still be walking away with more than what they'd get if they joined a non-BCS league.

They get games on TV because they are in the Big East. I don't know for sure, but I think TV deals extend to OOC games as well as conference games. Are networks going to be chomping at the bit to air the UC vs Ohio game?

I stated in an earlier post that ND was getting around 9 million from NBC for football. Do you think UC would get even half that?

What if some of these football teams go to C-USA or the MAC? Doesn't that increase those conferences leverage in TV deals? If UC or these other schools go independent, they are going to have to stay good to keep up the TV money, or they will get peanuts when their contract comes up.

You are coming up with a Not-Quite a Conference Conference there with your independents agreeing to play each other bit, and I just don't see how that would work, at least long term.

[xubrew]

I think Notre Dame might join the Big Ten......as an affiliate member in hockey (although it's my understanding that even that didn't work out).

I also think that if one or more of the Big East football schools don't land in a BCS conference, they're going to think twice about leaving the Big East as full members. If it's about money, leaving would be a very ill advised financial decision. They would give up revenue sharing from basketball (which looks to be about $8 million per team, per year if I read that link right). They would also have to pay exit fees. If a BCS league comes calling, they're gone. If not, I don't think they're going anywhere. Being an indie isn't ideal. I'm not saying that it is. However, for those teams it is still better than becoming full members of a non-major conference. In all likelihood, they'd generate more money from as an indie than they would as a full member of a MAC-type league. As far as basketball revenue, there would be a few planets in between the amounts of revenue they'd make.

We'll see what happens. My guess is that they get out their scotch tape and super glue and manage to keep the Big East together for a few more years, and then we'll be having these same discussions again.

[xubrew]

They get games on TV because they are in the Big East. I don't know for sure, but I think TV deals extend to OOC games as well as conference games. Are networks going to be chomping at the bit to air the UC vs Ohio game?


It depends on the league and the game. The Tennessee game this year and Oklahoma game last year were not on TV because of any sort of Big East agreement. Every time they play an opponent from a conference with any sort of TV deal, the game will most likely be on TV, and they'll get a cut of the revenue that they then wouldn't have to share.

They'd be able to get their games on TV. Not all of them would be on top tier networks, but a few would, and pretty much all of them would be on somewhere.

FSN probably would want the UC v Ohio Game, and ESPN3 would probably pick up the simulcast. Just look at all the games that are on TV this week.

http://mattsarzsports.com/2011/week7.aspx

[LA Muskie]

I think Notre Dame might join the Big Ten......as an affiliate member in hockey (although it's my understanding that even that didn't work out).
Notre Dame has joined Hockey East -- arguably the best hockey conference in the country -- and will begin play in 2 years. Depending on the poll, the conference would have either 4 or 5 teams in the Top 15 right now, if you include Notre Dame (New Hampshire is in the coaches' poll but not the USA Today poll).

Obviously the B1G has a place in that argument as well, but the point is that Notre Dame really doesn't need to "upgrade" its hockey conference anymore.

[LA Muskie]

As far as ND joining the Big Ten, I just don't see it. I'd be less surprised to see them in the ACC than I would the Big Ten, but ultimately they're doing just fine on their own. As far as ND seeing the light one day, I think they already have. Maybe some day everyone else will see the light and conclude that they're doing just fine on their own. They like getting to march to their own drum, and they don't want to join a football conference.
I agree that ND isn't going anywhere. But that doesn't mean that the grass is as green for all other independents. It will probably work for BYU on a smaller scale. But I don't think it would work very well for the likes of UC, USF, Rutgers, or UConn.

[xcellentx]

They'd be able to get their games on TV. Not all of them would be on top tier networks, but a few would, and pretty much all of them would be on somewhere.

FSN probably would want the UC v Ohio Game, and ESPN3 would probably pick up the simulcast. Just look at all the games that are on TV this week.

I agree with you that they will get games on TV, just not on big enough networks to make any real money. I'm sure they will get some local tv games and some FSN Ohio games. Recruits don't care about that though, they want to be on ESPN or ABC. Most of those games for smaller schools aren't on big networks or nationwide which is what you need for big money. I'm sure the Gardner-Webb at Presbyterian game isn't bringing in big money from MY40 and ESPN 3.

All I'm saying is that their might be a reason to stay in the Big East short term and work something out with football, but the football schools are going to get out of there at the first wiff of a better deal. Thats why I don't think the whole "lets bring in Navy and Army and everything will be alright" thing will workout. Maybe X doesn't get in the Big East next year, but within 10 years there will probably be some sort of BB only conference with the Big East BB schools that X will be a serious candidate for.

[xavierj]

Except ND makes less money from their contract than every Big Ten School. Older article, but goes into the point why ND would want to go to a conference:
http://http://www.aolnews.com/2009/06/15/as-notre-dames-tv-money-dwindles-so-too-should-its-independenc/



It goes on to say that ND made around 9 million in 2008 from their NBC TV deal. Add their Big East TV money, they get roughly 11.35 million a year from TV.

In 2008 Big Ten school banked over 15 million. That is around 4 million a year difference. And that is number is only getting higher

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/29356/big-ten-schools-see-increased-revenue



I don't know what ND is making this year from NBC, but Big Ten school are making almost as much just from the Big Ten Network as ND made from NBC in 2008. I think that doubling your TV revenue is more then enough incentive to join. Not saying they will soon, but I think it will happen. TV revenues from these large conferences are only going to go up. Can you imagine the Big Ten's TV deal with ND in there as well?

It doesn't matter what ND is getting from the TV side and I really don't know exactly what they are getting. What does matter is that without a conference they are the #1 most profitable football program in the country. They know that and that is why they will not join a conference for football. Why would ND want to share with Northwestern, Indiana or in the ACC teams like Duke and Virginia when they can just stay put, play who they want and make a gazillion dollars?

[xcellentx]

It doesn't matter what ND is getting from the TV side and I really don't know exactly what they are getting. What does matter is that without a conference they are the #1 most profitable football program in the country. They know that and that is why they will not join a conference for football. Why would ND want to share with Northwestern, Indiana or in the ACC teams like Duke and Virginia when they can just stay put, play who they want and make a gazillion dollars?

See, I don't think they are sharing anything that they would already have in their current situation. If I am wrong about this then let me know, but I don't think you share any of your merchandise profits. I don't think those would go away just because they join a conference. I don't think they would be sharing any money they currently get and would be receiving a larger amount of TV money even with sharing. If there is any reason that they think they can make more money staying independent they will, but it seems like they can make possibly $10 million more a year, and maybe more. There was also a part in one of those articles stating that ND's BCS money has been reduced about 75% since they started, not a problem if they join the Big Ten.

I don't care if they are the most profitable football program, more money is more money. I'm sure Nebraska was plenty profitable in the Big 12. They saw an opportunity to make more and they jumped on it. ND is bound by the Independent tradition, but their profits are going down while the Big Ten and others have profits going up. Show me one company/person/football program etc., that wouldn't at least consider that kind of income increase.

Like I said, I'm not saying it will happen tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure it will happen. Unless they get back up to the perennial NC competing years, their profits are going to continue to go down.

[xudash]

I don't believe the attached requires any commentary - Page 2 shows you what you need to know about Xavier, and you have to throw a little respect Dayton's way in the process:


http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2011/10/14/u-of-l-uk-among-top-moneymakers-in.html?ed=2011-10-14&s=article_du&ana=e_du_pub&appSession=394134814161293&RecordID=&PageID=2&PrevPageID=&cpipage=2&CPISortType=&CPIorderBy=

[xubrew]

I agree that ND isn't going anywhere. But that doesn't mean that the grass is as green for all other independents. It will probably work for BYU on a smaller scale. But I don't think it would work very well for the likes of UC, USF, Rutgers, or UConn.

Agreed. Being independent is far from ideal. If the Big East keeps its BCS status, or if another BCS league offers them an invite, they'll go that route.

Being indie in football and well endowed in basketball is still far better than being poorly endowed in both.


I agree with you that they will get games on TV, just not on big enough networks to make any real money. I'm sure they will get some local tv games and some FSN Ohio games. Recruits don't care about that though, they want to be on ESPN or ABC. Most of those games for smaller schools aren't on big networks or nationwide which is what you need for big money. I'm sure the Gardner-Webb at Presbyterian game isn't bringing in big money from MY40 and ESPN 3.

Agreed. It's just that if you're not making any real money, you're better off not having to share what little money you are making.

If they get an invite from a BCS league, they're gone. If hte Big East keeps its AQ status, they'll remain members in football. If neither happens, then going indie, while less than ideal, is still better than joining the MAC or CUSA. You gave an example of UC v Ohio. Well, if they're in the MAC, they have to share what little money is made. If they're indie, at least they'll get to keep a full share for themselves. That, and they have more room on the schedule for higher quality opponents and more TV money than they would if they were full members of the MAC.

Walking away from the basketball revenue and paying an exit fee on top of that to join the MAC makes no sense. Being indie is far from a best case scenario, but it's better than being full members of MAC or CUSA.

[xcellentx]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7102822/mountain-west-conference-usa-announce-football-only-alliance

MWC and CUSA will combine for football. Don't know how this will affect teams possibly leaving for the Big East but it forms a very interesting conference.

[xcellentx]

Walking away from the basketball revenue and paying an exit fee on top of that to join the MAC makes no sense. Being indie is far from a best case scenario, but it's better than being full members of MAC or CUSA.

Who knows what is going to happen. The Big East may allow teams with football to leave if there are only 2-3 left. They may be able to join the MAC for football while still being a Big East member in everything else, similar to Temple's arrangement right now.