Conference carousel to start spinning again?

[paulxu]

The simplified version:
SEC at 16 with Tx/Okl
ACC at 16 with WVU and Kansas
Big10 at 16 with ND (where they belong) and Iowa State
Pac 12 needs 4...there are 5 Big12 schools left. One gets left out.

[GoMuskies]

Kansas State

[XUGRAD80]

The simplified version:
SEC at 16 with Tx/Okl
ACC at 16 with WVU and Kansas
Big10 at 16 with ND (where they belong) and Iowa State
Pac 12 needs 4...there are 5 Big12 schools left. One gets left out.

I’d bet on many others, including Cincinnati, before Kansas to the ACC…….this is FOOTBALL oriented and Kansas might be the worst P5 football program of all. In addition, their basketball program is about to fall under some major NCAA sanctions according to many media outlets. Not a good combination.

[Xville]

I’d bet on many others, including Cincinnati, before Kansas to the ACC…….this is FOOTBALL oriented and Kansas might be the worst P5 football program of all. In addition, their basketball program is about to fall under some major NCAA sanctions according to many media outlets. Not a good combination.

I’m guessing Kansas ends up in the big 10….aau school and they will sacrifice the crap that is their football program for a blue blood basketball school. Let’s be honest about the penalties…they’ll receive a slap on the wrist or a one year postseason ban whoopppe do.

Uc brings nothing to anyone..never say never but I’ll be pretty shocked if they ever end up in a power league again.

[GoMuskies]

Cincinnati over KU? Is _LH back?

[paulxu]

I suppose ND could stay in the ACC and just add WVU.
Then the Big10 would take Kansas and Iowa State.
Just seems like ND should be a Big10 School.

[JTG]

I suppose ND could stay in the ACC and just add WVU.
Then the Big10 would take Kansas and Iowa State.
Just seems like ND should be a Big10 School.

I think the ACC just affords ND a much more interesting mix of schools than the BIG. They consider themselves a national school, so being tied to the Midwest probably doesn't appeal to them. I can't imagine any network being thrilled at bringing KU football to the table, and the BIG already has Iowa. I dunno, the next few weeks or days maybe, should be fascinating to watch unfold. One thing for sure the Big12 is toast.

[XUGRAD80]

Cincinnati over KU? Is _LH back?

It’s all about FOOTBALL and the money that it brings. Basketball, even Kansas basketball, is in no way as important as football and the Saturday TV viewership on a weekly basis it garners. When was the last time that a Kansas football game was a national broadcast? I’m a big college football junkie and I can’t remember the last time I saw Kansas play on TV. From a FOOTBALL standpoint, Cincinnati is a much more attractive program to the ATLANTIC COAST viewers than Kansas. I’m not saying that UC will end up there (although I’d love to see it happen), but they (along with schools such as UCF or USF) have a good chance. I expect WVU to make the move from the B12 to the ACC and UC would be a natural partner for them because of past history with WVU, Pitt, and Louisville.

[paulxu]

Ack, I forgot about UCF and USF. They would be natural for the ACC, but you'd have to have ND leave or be at 17.

[XUGRAD80]

Ack, I forgot about UCF and USF. They would be natural for the ACC, but you'd have to have ND leave or be at 17.

ND to Big10, along with either Iowa State, Oklahoma State, or Nebraska

[SM#24]

Currently, ND's arrangement with the ACC states if they join a conference, it's the ACC.
Why would the ACC want WVU now ? I believe the only reason they are in the B12 is that the ACC didn't want them.
Why do the B1G or ACC even have to add teams ?
I think it's more likely B1G tries to raid the ACC (UNC, Ga Tech, UVa) than take any B12 leftovers.

[SM#24]

ND to Big10, along with either Iowa State, Oklahoma State, or Nebraska

Are you saying the Big 10 may get the Nebraska they thought they were getting ?

[XUGRAD80]

Are you saying the Big 10 may get the Nebraska they thought they were getting ?


My mistake, I forgot that they had already gone there…..that’s how unimportant they have become.

[bjf123]

I freely admit I don’t follow college football in depth, but I think Oklahoma and Texas alumni are not going to be happy short term with this. Weren’t they the “top dogs” in the Big 12, with OU usually winning the conference?

I think they might quickly find they’re just middle of the road SEC teams and will be playing in The Who Knows What Bowl on Dec 19, instead of having a shot at the BCS title.

The schools will gladly cash those big SEC checks, but the alumni won’t like losing 2-3 games each year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[XUGRAD80]

Currently, ND's arrangement with the ACC states if they join a conference, it's the ACC.
Why would the ACC want WVU now ? I believe the only reason they are in the B12 is that the ACC didn't want them.
Why do the B1G or ACC even have to add teams ?
I think it's more likely B1G tries to raid the ACC (UNC, Ga Tech, UVa) than take any B12 leftovers.

Much more likely that the ACC and SEC merge and the rest of the country is left out in the cold.

[GoMuskies]

I think KU should drop football and join the Big East.

[STL_XUfan]

I think if the Big 10 offered Mizzou and A&M right now, both schools would strongly consider it. I don't think either are all that excited to welcome all of the baggage that comes along with Texas (but on the other hand, boat loads of money has been known to cure most headaches).

[Xavier]

Currently, ND's arrangement with the ACC states if they join a conference, it's the ACC.
.

I heard on the radio that if ND wants to join a conference- the contract states they have to talk to ACC first. Not necessarily join it....but again everything you hear on the radio is true so who knows.

[xubrew]

I think KU should drop football and join the Big East.

Well, they might go indy in football and join the Big East. In fact the Big East could stage an annual football conference championship game between them and UConn! I expect it wouldn't do all that much more poorly than some of the conference championship games we have now.

[GoMuskies]

Well, they might go indy in football and join the Big East. In fact the Big East could stage an annual football conference championship game between them and UConn! I expect it wouldn't do all that much more poorly than some of the conference championship games we have now.

And then the winner would play Villanova, who probably has the best football team among the three most years.

[xudash]

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31922593/ncaa-sets-table-dramatic-overhaul-how-governs-college-athletics

[UCGRAD4X]

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31922593/ncaa-sets-table-dramatic-overhaul-how-governs-college-athletics

"I think it's really the shifting legal environment, the economic environment, the political environment, all of that, that creates this opportunity in a lot of ways to stop and erase the blackboard and draw a new chart again," Emmert said.

They could start a move toward modernizing by getting a damn dry erase board.

[MADXSTER]

IMO these conferences will eventually start their own league and get away from the NCAA. At least in football and then other sports to follow.

[Muskie]

This thread is over ten years old....

[bjf123]

This thread is over ten years old....

Like good music, the classics never die.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[paulxu]

10 more years...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31950751/sources-commissioners-big-12-pac-12-meet-discuss-potential-strategic-partnership

[MHettel]

10 more years...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31950751/sources-commissioners-big-12-pac-12-meet-discuss-potential-strategic-partnership

There are certainly a number of options out there. A Pac 12 / Big 12 "alliance" makes almost no sense to me as a good option.

There are 5 major football conferences out there. Imagine this was a business (which it is). One of the 5 business just received a potentially fatal blow. You are the owner of one of the 4 remaining businesses.

would you (pick one)
a) come to the aid of the fallen competitor? (alliance)
b) Rob the SOB while he's dying in the alley? (take a couple teams)
c) do nothing and watch as the "big 5" becomes the "big 4."

There are maybe 1 or 2 decent football brands left in the B12. If the vultures pick those off, then the rest have almost nothing to offer. If I'm the Pac12, I'm in vulture mode right now. Grab a couple schools that allow you to expand into an adjacent geography, and then let the rest of the teams just wither away.

Out of the remaining 8 teams in the B12, I assume 6 of them would take the strategy of "lets all stick together" (meaning all 8), while the 2 decent brands probably are thinking "lets dump the dead weight" and get out safely.

And, if the B10 comes snooping around and drives more uncertainly about the 8 being able to stick together...then watch out.

OR, if the ACC decides to make a move to expand and tried to poach from the SEC or B10, then it's all gonna crumble too.

My guess is that he B12 and Pac12 HAVE discussed an alliance (honestly, the Pac 12 should at least listen), BUT that the story was leaked by the B12 in an effort to "sell" this as a viable option that is gaining traction.

[94GRAD]

"Maybe your fan base would rather lose to Alabama than TCU"


https://twitter.com/UnnecRoughness/status/1422600776153718786

[xudash]

There are certainly a number of options out there. A Pac 12 / Big 12 "alliance" makes almost no sense to me as a good option.

There are 5 major football conferences out there. Imagine this was a business (which it is). One of the 5 business just received a potentially fatal blow. You are the owner of one of the 4 remaining businesses.

would you (pick one)
a) come to the aid of the fallen competitor? (alliance)
b) Rob the SOB while he's dying in the alley? (take a couple teams)
c) do nothing and watch as the "big 5" becomes the "big 4."

There are maybe 1 or 2 decent football brands left in the B12. If the vultures pick those off, then the rest have almost nothing to offer. If I'm the Pac12, I'm in vulture mode right now. Grab a couple schools that allow you to expand into an adjacent geography, and then let the rest of the teams just wither away.

Out of the remaining 8 teams in the B12, I assume 6 of them would take the strategy of "lets all stick together" (meaning all 8), while the 2 decent brands probably are thinking "lets dump the dead weight" and get out safely.

And, if the B10 comes snooping around and drives more uncertainly about the 8 being able to stick together...then watch out.

OR, if the ACC decides to make a move to expand and tried to poach from the SEC or B10, then it's all gonna crumble too.

My guess is that he B12 and Pac12 HAVE discussed an alliance (honestly, the Pac 12 should at least listen), BUT that the story was leaked by the B12 in an effort to "sell" this as a viable option that is gaining traction.

The ACC is in no - ZERO - position to poach from the SEC or the B1G. Otherwise, more popcorn, please. This will continue to be interesting to witness.

[xudash]

I get the notion of “thinking big”.

But, thinking realistically isn’t a bad idea either:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/2021/08/07/column-cincinnati-bearcats-more-than-ready-conference-realignment-after-texas-oklahoma-go-to-sec/5484944001/

The B1G? They should be putting zero effort into that idea.

The ACC isn’t realistic for them.

IMO, they simply think too highly of themselves.

I think they’ll come out of this better than where they stand now, but while still not making it to the promised land.

[GoMuskies]

I don't think this latest round of shifting is particuarly relevant to Xavier, but I did see an ESPN article just now claiming BYU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati were the top Big XII expansion candidates. Nothing earthshattering about that given fan bases (BYU really), markets (Houston and UCF) and recent football succes (mostly UC). However, I guess I do wonder if BYU leaving the WCC would cause Gonzaga to take another look at the Big East. Spokane hasn't gotten any closer to Omaha in recent years, and Gonzaga doesn't really need a strong conference to do their thing, but if the WCC takes a hit it could at least be something they ponder again.

[MHettel]

I don't think this latest round of shifting is particuarly relevant to Xavier, but I did see an ESPN article just now claiming BYU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati were the top Big XII expansion candidates. Nothing earthshattering about that given fan bases (BYU really), markets (Houston and UCF) and recent football succes (mostly UC). However, I guess I do wonder if BYU leaving the WCC would cause Gonzaga to take another look at the Big East. Spokane hasn't gotten any closer to Omaha in recent years, and Gonzaga doesn't really need a strong conference to do their thing, but if the WCC takes a hit it could at least be something they ponder again.

Geez. I'm the #1 advocate of Gonzaga joining the Big East, but it just isn't possible.

To do it, the BE would have to take on a few schools West of the established footprint. St. Mary's would work in a pinch, but that not a reason to expand. There would have to be 4-5 teams added, just to grab the Zags.

There is no way Gonzaga is taking 10 cross country trips per year. Why would they? They are a top 5 program already. What is there to gain?

The BE would have to go to 15 (3 divisions) or 16 (2 divisions) teams. And scheduling would be unbalanced.

The remaining BBall commodities out there that would a make ANY sense to grab is really limited. Maybe Wichita State? SLU? Not one single team at all from Omaha to Spokane. And if there was some expansion, some current teams that are "westerly" would get dumped into a West division and have travel way outside of their region and recruiting area.

I wish. But nope.

[MADXSTER]

If the Zags were to change conferences, it would make more sense to join the PAC12 as all sports but football.

[XUBison]

If the Zags were to change conferences, it would make more sense to join the PAC12 as all sports but football.

I think the exact opposite is true. if that were the case, the Big East would not have imploded. Basketball on its own brings nothing to the power football conferences in terms of money, and they are not about to start splitting their football pie again with schools that don’t have football.

I think it’s much more likely the zags join the Big 12 as a non-football member, assuming the Big 12 ads Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, and UCF. The big 12 will be desperate to do anything that adds some cachet, and they won’t have to worry about splitting the huge football pie, because they won’t have one. It would be a hell of a basketball conference with Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor at the top.

[XUGRAD80]

If the Zags were to change conferences, it would make more sense to join the PAC12 as all sports but football.

From a geographic standpoint, along with considering travel time and expense, that would certainly seem to be the case.

[xudash]

I think the exact opposite is true. if that were the case, the Big East would not have imploded. Basketball on its own brings nothing to the power football conferences in terms of money, and they are not about to start splitting their football pie again with schools that don’t have football.

I think it’s much more likely the zags join the Big 12 as a non-football member, assuming the Big 12 ads Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, and UCF. The big 12 will be desperate to do anything that adds some cachet, and they won’t have to worry about splitting the huge football pie, because they won’t have one. It would be a hell of a basketball conference with Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor at the top.

Creative thinking, but, again, it all comes down to what works with respect to maximizing media agreements. Gonzaga, by itself as a basketball-only school as an addition to a football conference, will not and can not add enough money to the media agreement where it would make sense to make such an addition.

I agree that it would be a solid conference for basketball, but it stops there.

These schools are solving for football. I would also think that the very idea of moving towards a hybrid model signals weakness on the part of the football conference pursuing such an idea. It didn't work for the old BE and it isn't doing anything of significance for the AAC.

[xudash]

https://247sports.com/college/cincinnati/board/40/Contents/the-big-xii-and-uc-basketball-170073842/?page=1

Some Bearkitten fans believe that the Big12 is going to deliver UC football and basketball to the promised land. They believe they are going to blow by Xavier and the Big East.

They even believe Clifton community college has a better campus!

I do think it will be better for the rivalry that they have improved their conference position. And, though they have improved, or might be improving their conference position shortly, it doesn’t seem to have occurred to them that they have taken a positive step, but without getting to the critical point that they needed to get to in order to have true long-term, sustainable success.

The student body is still going to be underwriting athletics over there, and, either way, they simply will be in no position to compete against the B1G and the SEC, in particular.

They are excited about the prospect of Kansas showing up at their place for basketball, while fans of Kansas are probably mostly holding their noses at the idea of that.

[JTG]

Im certainly no fan of UC, but you have t o admit, even a weakened Big 12 is better than the AAC. People going to Kansas should hold their noses at the stench of douchebag Bill Self.

[XUGRAD80]

So, IF the BE-Big 12 basketball series continues, could the Shootout game become just another piece of that series? Would the leagues be that stupid? I’d certainly hope not, but who knows?

[xudash]

Im certainly no fan of UC, but you have t o admit, even a weakened Big 12 is better than the AAC. People going to Kansas should hold their noses at the stench of douchebag Bill Self.

Totally agree, a weakened B12 does improve UC’s position. But it doesn’t deliver them to the promised land.

Students will still be subsidizing UC’s athletic department. And getting to the NC PLAYOFF group will still be very difficult, even if that format expands.

[GoMuskies]

Everyone in that league will be praying for an exit. Just like the old Big East. UC should be familiar with that scenario.

[xudash]

Everyone in that league will be praying for an exit. Just like the old Big East. UC should be familiar with that scenario.

This is anecdotal, but a good friend of mine here in Jacksonville is a sports anchor on television, a Kansas graduate and a huge fan of Kansas. He is beside himself over all of this, and is praying for Kansas to receive an invitation from the B1G, although he understands Kansas is in a tough position in terms of receiving that.

It is as though UC is changing to a larger boat, while heading into tougher waters.

[XUGRAD80]

Big 12 schools currently make 34 MILLION each from their Media/TV deal…..which includes the Big 12 network. I know that people here (especially those people that live out of the Cincy area or who aren’t natives to Cincy) like to discredit everything they do, but that has to be a huge jump up from what they get out of the AAC. Money like that will certainly make a difference. In comparison, the SEC schools each get 44 million from their contract. Texas has its own network, and that has been a bone of contention between Texas and the rest of the Big 12 for many years.

By the way…on the subject of Cantus. I see they won their annual one football game last night. Good for them. The B10 would have ZERO interest or reason to add that program to its conference. Remember, this conference realignment is all about FOOTBALL and the MONEY it generates.

[GoMuskies]

Big XII schools make $34 million while the conference includes Texas and Oklahoma. That will obviously not continue.

[xubrew]

I don't think this latest round of shifting is particuarly relevant to Xavier, but I did see an ESPN article just now claiming BYU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati were the top Big XII expansion candidates. Nothing earthshattering about that given fan bases (BYU really), markets (Houston and UCF) and recent football succes (mostly UC). However, I guess I do wonder if BYU leaving the WCC would cause Gonzaga to take another look at the Big East. Spokane hasn't gotten any closer to Omaha in recent years, and Gonzaga doesn't really need a strong conference to do their thing, but if the WCC takes a hit it could at least be something they ponder again.

Probably not. I wonder how much Gonzaga really actually looked at that in the first place. I think Gonzaga's feelings about losing BYU will be "Alright! Sweet!! Two more OOC games!! That's two more Top 25 teams we can schedule!"

[X-man]

Big XII schools make $34 million while the conference includes Texas and Oklahoma. That will obviously not continue.

According to CBS, the loss of OU and Texas will cost each school about $14M. But adding in the 4 schools is expected to add back about $2M, so if CBS is right, each school might be expected to make about $22M after the dust settles. While that is a hit for the schools already in the B12, it is a substantial revenue upgrade for schools like our crosstown rival.

Link: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-expansion-league-to-meet-about-offering-byu-cincinnati-houston-and-ucf-membership/.

[GoMuskies]

According to CBS, the loss of OU and Texas will cost each school about $14M. But adding in the 4 schools is expected to add back about $2M, so if CBS is right, each school might be expected to make about $22M after the dust settles. While that is a hit for the schools already in the B12, it is a substantial revenue upgrade for schools like our crosstown rival.

Link: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-expansion-league-to-meet-about-offering-byu-cincinnati-houston-and-ucf-membership/.

Right, and good for UC in the short term, but it means WV and Oklahoma State at least will have their hair on fire trying to get out of there.

[XUBison]

Big 12 schools currently make 34 MILLION each from their Media/TV deal…..which includes the Big 12 network. I know that people here (especially those people that live out of the Cincy area or who aren’t natives to Cincy) like to discredit everything they do, but that has to be a huge jump up from what they get out of the AAC. Money like that will certainly make a difference. In comparison, the SEC schools each get 44 million from their contract. Texas has its own network, and that has been a bone of contention between Texas and the rest of the Big 12 for many years.

By the way…on the subject of Cantus. I see they won their annual one football game last night. Good for them. The B10 would have ZERO interest or reason to add that program to its conference. Remember, this conference realignment is all about FOOTBALL and the MONEY it generates.

Maryland and Rutgers? Just saying. And no way Big 12 schools will continue making anything close to $34M.

[xubrew]

Maryland and Rutgers? Just saying. And no way Big 12 schools will continue making anything close to $34M.

Probably between $20 million and $25 million.

[XUGRAD80]

Probably between $20 million and $25 million.

I think the AAC payout is less than 10 million. That’s a pretty good raise.

[paulxu]

At least the Big12 will now have actually 12 schools.

[GoMuskies]

At least the Big12 will now have actually 12 schools.

For a short time, at least.

[chico]

Texas may want to rethink this whole SEC thing.

[xubrew]

I'm just excited that BYU vs UCF is now finally going to be a conference game!! At long last!!

It makes geographic sense!!

It makes institutional sense!! I mean, when I think of grouping together like-minded institutions, THESE ARE THE TWO THAT NEED TO BE TOGETHER!!

It's beyond belief that these two schools have never been in the same conference before now!!

[xubrew]

The B12 championship game for the basketball tournament has been played on Sundays in the past. I guess that won't happen again anytime soon. I guess the AAC will keep that Sunday spot. What a lead in!!! If there's anything that the people waiting for the Selection Show want to see, it's the AAC Championship Game!!!

[GoMuskies]

BYU is playing 5 Pac-12 games this year. If they win all 5, can we just put them in the Pac-12 championship game opposite Oregon?

It's too bad BYU is playing Georgia Southern this year instead of getting the "Mullets vs. Mormons" game going again. Really, BYU and Coastal Carolina should be in the same conference given the rivalry.

[xubrew]

BYU would have been a good fit for the Pac 12 if only they weren't BYU.

[MHettel]

Big 12 Football is basically Atlantic 10 Basketball circa 2005,

[GoMuskies]

Big 12 Football is basically Atlantic 10 Basketball circa 2005,

Nah, I'd go 2004. Pretty damned good, still, but not brand name.

[murray87]

USC fires their coach and the first option named is Luke Fickell. Uh-oh UC fan................

[xubrew]

USC fires their coach and the first option named is Luke Fickell. Uh-oh UC fan................

Maybe. Mike Bohn has hired him once already.

I kinda get the sense that Fickell won't be interested. Florida State and Auburn didn't seem to interest him that much. I think he's kind of wanting to stay in the Big Ten/Big Twelve midwest footprint. But, then again....Mike Bohn is USC's AD.

Also, if James Franklin takes the USC job, then I could see Fickell being VERY interested in Penn State.

[xubrew]

Hmmm....

How does everyone suppose a 16 team SEC will work??

2 divisions of 8, 7 division games and 1 or 2 crossover games with one of the games being a protected series that's played every year??

If that's the case, who goes to the East?? This was an issue last time. In order to preserve tradition and rivalry, they sent Missouri to the East even though they are the western-most team. It wouldn't shock me at all if they decided to put Oklahoma in the East, and have the Oklahoma v Texas game be the protected crossover series. Alabama v Auburn, Ole Miss v Miss State, and Arkansas v LSU just have too many historic rivalries that would be split up if one of those teams moved to the East. So....I'm betting it ends up being Oklahoma. In the East. Even though they're way out West.

I bet they also move to 9 games. Which would probably mean one fewer home games for eveyrone every two years. A lot of schools aren't going to like that one either. The only way that would be avoided is if they just decided to never play OOC road games. Ever.

I'm not saying it's bad that the SEC added Oklahoma and Texas. What I am saying is that a lot of people in SEC country who were all for this probably haven't thought it through all the way. I'll also say that...well...that makes me kinda happy!!! When it comes to SECism, I just don't feel bad when things happen that they don't like.

[paulxu]

I'd like to see this makeup:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E62U5XfWEAkGLYh.jpg

[xubrew]

The problem some in the SEC will have with this is that either LSU v Auburn or LSU v Alabama would have to go. I don't think that'll happen. Ole Miss and Mississippi State wouldn't want this alignment either since both consider Alabama as a rival. No one else does, including Alabama, but the two of them do and I'm assuming they both get a vote.

When it comes to the protected "crossover" rivalries, I think all seven will stay exactly the same, and the 8th one will be Texas v Oklahoma.

[xubrew]

As for basketball, I'm guessing they'll do a wheel like what the ACC has done at times?? That would give them 18 games. A wheel is playing home and homes with the teams above you and below you, plus one other game. I don't know if this would be exactly what it would look like, but it'd be close. And it would give us that much anticipated Vandy v Ole Miss game every year!!!

Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
Florida
South Carolina
Georgia
Auburn
Alabama
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Ole Miss

[xubrew]

The latest rumor is Air Force and Colorado State to the American. I guess that’s interesting. Not sure why the American would really want them, nor am I sure why either one of them would really want to go. It seems like a two-sides lateral move. But…whatever.

[paulxu]

Maybe the Big 12 should have invited Boise State instead of BYU.

[xubrew]

CUSA wants to meet with the Sun Belt and American to realign all three conferences in a way that makes more geographic sense.

I think it's a great idea! I also think the AAC won't want to do it because they live in a fantasy world!

I think CUSA and the SBC should just do it without them. They've got 24 football schools and 26 basketball schools. Just form three conferences out of those 24/26 teams, get three automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament collectively instead of just two, create a much better geographic layout, and have some sort of scheduling crossover agreement in football where teams play their mirrors in the last two weeks of the season. (the 1st place teams play the other two 1st place teams, 2nd place teams play each other, etc). That gives everyone 7 conference games, two additional fixture crossover games, and 3 more OOC games. They're off and running!

[xubrew]

So the American extended invites to six CUSA schools! And this is great news for all college basketball fans!! After about a decade or so of dormancy, the Memphis vs Rice rivalry is back!!!!!

Of the 14 teams in the American, 12 used to be in Conference USA. The more the "conference carousel" spins, the more it sometimes seems eventually seems to come around to the same place it was at before.

Southern Miss, Marshall, Old Dominion, and James Madison (CAA) are rumored to be joining the Sun Belt. I'm inclined to believe the rumors are true. That would leave CUSA with just five teams (WKU, Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, FIU, and UTEP). A week ago at this time they had 14 teams. That's not a good week for CUSA. All of those schools, with the exception of FIU, have some basketball value. All of them have also done SOMETHING in football somewhat recently. I don't know what their next move is. UTEP and LA Tech might look to join the WAC as the WAC goes ahead with its plans to restart FBS football. Both have been in the WAC before.

As far as the remaining three teams, I don't know what happens. Do the go fishing at the FCS and D2 levels to try and get their membership back up to at least 8?? Do Middle and WKU call the MAC and ask if they can join that league?? Both are good programs, but both are kind of screwed at the moment.

[XUGRAD80]

Western KY has been doing VERY good in its BB recruiting recently. Surprisingly so IMO. Enough to make me wonder what is going on there. I’m somewhat familiar with it as my daughter went there for her 1st semester in college and I’ve been to Bowling Green several times. It’s nice enough, but one of the best things about both WKU and Middle TN is there closeness to Nashville. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up in the OVC.

[xubrew]

Western KY has been doing VERY good in its BB recruiting recently. Surprisingly so IMO. Enough to make me wonder what is going on there. I’m somewhat familiar with it as my daughter went there for her 1st semester in college and I’ve been to Bowling Green several times. It’s nice enough, but one of the best things about both WKU and Middle TN is there closeness to Nashville. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up in the OVC.

The problem with the OVC is that it really doesn't meet their football interests. I suppose they could just go Indy in football. Liberty, UConn, UMass, are already, so there would at least be a few other teams they could play every year. So...maybe?? The OVC is down members, so they'd probably love to have the two of them.

[XUGRAD80]

The problem with the OVC is that it really doesn't meet their football interests. I suppose they could just go Indy in football. Liberty, UConn, UMass, are already, so there would at least be a few other teams they could play every year. So...maybe?? The OVC is down members, so they'd probably love to have the two of them.

I think that it’s soon going to be the time for many colleges to decide just why it is that they are playing football at all. Schools will decide if they want to be serious contenders for big time football and all that goes along with that, or just want to have a sport that the alumni and students can enjoy on saturdays in the fall. The OVC would give WKU and MTS several schools in their geographic area that are similar in size and scope…Eastern Kentucky U, Murray State, Austin Peay, Morehead State, Tennessee Tech, Tenn. St, Tenn-Martin are all within a few hours drive and are natural rivals. The OVC currently has 7 football playing members that compete for the conference championship. Adding MTS and WKU would raise that to 9, and if Morehead would decide to start offering scholarships again, it would be 10 full members for football.

[GoMuskies]

LOL, everything old is new again.

[xubrew]

I think that it’s soon going to be the time for many colleges to decide just why it is that they are playing football at all. Schools will decide if they want to be serious contenders for big time football and all that goes along with that, or just want to have a sport that the alumni and students can enjoy on saturdays in the fall. The OVC would give WKU and MTS several schools in their geographic area that are similar in size and scope…Eastern Kentucky U, Murray State, Austin Peay, Morehead State, Tennessee Tech, Tenn. St, Tenn-Martin are all within a few hours drive and are natural rivals. The OVC currently has 7 football playing members that compete for the conference championship. Adding MTS and WKU would raise that to 9, and if Morehead would decide to start offering scholarships again, it would be 10 full members for football.

This implies that you think the people making the decisions are rational people.

In terms of football, there are a lot of schools wanting to move up to FBS and looking for ways to do it. Almost no one is looking to move down to FCS. The last team to do it was Idaho (I think). The idea is that FBS is the top level of football, and schools like the idea of doing what they do at the "top level." So, I don't think they any one is going to rationalize how they may be better off at the FCS level instead. The good FCS teams are wanting to move up. None of the bad FBS teams are wanting to move down.

I think the majority of conference realignment is irrational. Not all of it, but most of it. The thought process of "The SEC is adding teams!, so WE need to add teams!!" is not a rational thought process. The CUSA teams that left for the Sun Belt...WHY?? How are they any better off than they would have been had they just remained in CUSA??

When it comes to basketball, I think there are three levels. The P5/BE level, the regular multi-bid league level (A10, AAC, MWC, WCC), and the regular one bid league level.

In football, I think there are also three levels. P5, G5, FCS.

Unless a school has the chance to move "up" a level, or unless they have the chance to greatly increase their TV revenue as was the case with Texas and Oklahoma, there isn't much point to moving conferences. It's expensive exit fees, expensive entrance fees, and they land in a place that really isn't any different than the one they were previously at. A lot of schools have spent a lot of money to ultimately end up in leagues that weren't all that different than the ones they left. The new AAC will put most teams that came over from CUSA in a division where all the other teams in the division were CUSA members. So...how the hell is anything any different or any better??

If I were Middle or WKU, I think I'd collect all the exit fees, look at joining the OVC (which is on the same "level" that CUSA was), and then look for scheduling agreements with each other, Liberty, UConn, UMass, FIU, UTEP, and New Mexico State in football. That's potentially half the schedule right there.

[xubrew]

This is something that most people probably don't care about seeing as how no one is really reading or posting in this thread anymore, but it amused the hell out of me....

The six CUSA schools that recently joined the AAC will be receiving $2 million per year in media revenue from the conference's ESPN deal. Keep in mind these are schools with football teams. The other eight schools are receiving $5 million a year. That's more than double what everyone else is getting!

The other thing that's amusing is that ESPN will pull out of this deal. It is almost guaranteed. They aren't going to fork over a billion dollars for that steaming pile of crap. They had it written into the contract that if UConn, Houston, Cincinnati, or UCF left (just ONE of them!) that they could back out of the deal. ALL FOUR LEFT!!! So, once ESPN backs out of this deal, and the AAC works out a new deal with ESPN (or whoever) will the six new schools from CUSA end up with any more money than what they were making before? They all ended up in the same league with the same teams making the same amount of money. The carousel has spun all the way around and is now back to where it started!!

[XUGRAD80]

When the 3 teams left the AAC, CUSA went to the AAC board and suggested a merger of sorts between the 2 leagues. The proposal was along the lines of setting up two divisions based on geography, East and West. I don’t know all the details, but that was the gist of the proposal. The AAC refused to consider it, then turned around and snatched up 6 schools from CUSA. The really ironic thing is that many of the current AAC schools were at one time in CUSA! So, it really didn’t accomplish much for many of them in the long run. I’m glad UC got out of there, and feel the same way for Central Florida and BYU. Houston? Who cares? But I sure do hope that AAC gives up on their “Power 6” mantra and just faces the fact that there are the haves and the have nots, and they are now definitely in the latter. And that ain’t gonna change in the foreseeable future…….of course I’m talking football here, basketball and the other sports are a separate animal.

[xubrew]

CUSA has added Liberty and New Mexico State as full members, and UConn as a football only member. That at least gets them to seven full members assuming no one else looks to bolt.

I like the SoCon. Just as a fan I really like watching that league. I really hope CUSA doesn't raid the SoCon and dangle the FBS football carrot in front of ETSU, or Chattanooga, or Furman, or Wofford, or at the rate we're going...all four of them.

[GoMuskies]

UConn to C-USA does not appear to be a thing just yet.

[xubrew]

Despite what CUSA announced, UConn is apparently NOT joining as a football only member.

I don’t know why I’m laughing at this as much as I am. It is an all time classic ‘OOPS!!!!’

[xubrew]

It is very likely that WKU and Middle Tennessee will announce they are joining the MAC before the end of this week.

[xubrew]

The Colonial has stated that if James Madison announces they are leaving for the Sun Belt they will not be allowed to participate in any conference championships this year, including men's and women's basketball.

The CAA did this to Richmond when they jumped into the A10, and that Richmond team that didn't get to play was actually pretty good. They also did it to Georgia State.

Strangely enough, they didn't do it to VCU. Either VCU announced they were leaving for the A10 after the season ended, or the CAA just decided that VCU was good enough to earn more than just the one unit from the NCAA Tournament, and wanted the extra money.

[paulxu]

Loyola Chicago to the A10.

[GoMuskies]

Wichita State should join them. They are just some Presidents with a backbone away from kicking out Fordham, Duquesne and LaSalle and having a pretty good little league.

So.....same thing they've been for the last 25 years.

[paulxu]

Wichita State should join them. They are just some Presidents with a backbone away from kicking out Fordham, Duquesne and LaSalle and having a pretty good little league.

So.....same thing they've been for the last 25 years.

If Wichita would join, they'd at least have a balanced 16 teams. (and you could watch A10 basketball again in your backyard:facepalm:)

[xudash]

Just what VD needed: another Jesuit school thumping their ass every year.

[Masterofreality]

Just what VD needed: another Jesuit school thumping their ass every year.

Correct

[Masterofreality]

Wichita State should join them. They are just some Presidents with a backbone away from kicking out Fordham, Duquesne and LaSalle and having a pretty good little league.

So.....same thing they've been for the last 25 years.

All 3 of those schools are legacy proof of the incompetence of one Linda Blutarsky. There were already 2 schools in Philly. Zero reason for a 3rd. Fordham still plays in the oldest and still one of the worst gyms in college basketball and had no upgrade provisions required of them to join. Duquesne is barely known even in their hometown. If anybody there is a college fan they follow Pitt.
It was expansion for expansion sake and the entry fees. Subtraction by addition and every one of those schools- except for a once in a million years season from LaSalle under Dr. John, have been takers rather than contributors. They still suck hard today after 25 years.
It still kills me that those cretins stole so much money that Xavier worked so hard to contribute.
Damn I’m glad we got the hell out of there.

[Xville]

Interesting…is the a10 that much better than the valley money wise?

[xubrew]

Interesting…is the a10 that much better than the valley money wise?

No. They both have crappy deals. The A10 does make a little more, but part of it includes a network that puts them on a channel that will soon no longer exist. I guess they'll be playing on the USA Network. I think that's the plan??

I still think the quality programs in the A10 should just leave and do their own thing, and hook up with some other programs that currently play in smaller leagues, but where basketball is a priority. But...I also don't care anymore.

[xudash]

No. They both have crappy deals. The A10 does make a little more, but part of it includes a network that puts them on a channel that will soon no longer exist. I guess they'll be playing on the USA Network. I think that's the plan??

I still think the quality programs in the A10 should just leave and do their own thing, and hook up with some other programs that currently play in smaller leagues, but where basketball is a priority. But...I also don't care anymore.

A10 quality programs = oxymoron.

[X-band '01]

UC, Houston and Central Florida have made it official that they will join the Big 12 on July 1, 2023. It will cost them $18 million to get out of jail, err, the American on that date.

[Masterofreality]

UC, Houston and Central Florida have made it official that they will join the Big 12 on July 1, 2023. It will cost them $18 million to get out of jail, err, the American on that date.

$18 million apiece?
I refuse to pay my Ohio taxes for that bullshit

[X-band '01]

You'd rather watch your tax money being spent on the Tin Man at Mother Miami, amirite?

[MHettel]

UC, Houston and Central Florida have made it official that they will join the Big 12 on July 1, 2023. It will cost them $18 million to get out of jail, err, the American on that date.

I thought I saw that they we supposed to pay 10M a year for 4 years, and then be able to leave in 2025. Moving it up 2 years cost them an additional 8M. So 48M each to leave. Maybe I misunderstood the story, it was a little confusing.

[MHettel]

I thought I saw that they we supposed to pay 10M a year for 4 years, and then be able to leave in 2025. Moving it up 2 years cost them an additional 8M. So 48M each to leave. Maybe I misunderstood the story, it was a little confusing.

Re-read it just now. 10M over 4 years originally. Not 10M each year. But an additional 8M to leave in 2023.

[X-band '01]

So yeah, they're paying $2.5M/year from 2021 through 2024 - that's the original $10M exit fee.

Now they're spreading the extra $8M over a 12-year span from 2025 through 2036.

[XUGRAD80]

So yeah, they're paying $2.5M/year from 2021 through 2024 - that's the original $10M exit fee.

Now they're spreading the extra $8M over a 12-year span from 2025 through 2036.


Meanwhile, each B12 school received $42 million from the conference this year. Seems like a pretty easy decision and a good deal for UC.

By the way, UConn paid $18 million to join the BE.

[xudash]

Meanwhile, each B12 school received $42 million from the conference this year. Seems like a pretty easy decision and a good deal for UC.

By the way, UConn paid $18 million to join the BE.

Slow down. $42 million includes Texas and OU in the mix.

It will drop - possibly like a brick - once those 2 exit for the SEC.

I think it’s clear that UC will improve its position in all this, but by how much, and will it be enough for football if 5 “main” conferences still stand?

What happens if the top 20’ish programs break away.

[muskiefan82]

Bad things will happen

[Masterofreality]

Slow down. $42 million includes Texas and OU in the mix.

It will drop - possibly like a brick - once those 2 exit for the SEC.

I think it’s clear that UC will improve its position in all this, but by how much, and will it be enough for football if 5 “main” conferences still stand?

What happens if the top 20’ish programs break away.

So, do the new schools get to share in the TV contract and any NCAA Tournament share money right away or do they have a “probationary” period like what happened with the Big East?

[xudash]

So, do the new schools get to share in the TV contract and any NCAA Tournament share money right away or do they have a “probationary” period like what happened with the Big East?

Great question.

I would think that isn’t possible, certainly as long as the 800 lb. gorilla (Texas) is still attached.

Cannot wait to see how this reconfigured conference holds up in terms of content value.

[XUGRAD80]

So, do the new schools get to share in the TV contract and any NCAA Tournament share money right away or do they have a “probationary” period like what happened with the Big East?

It will be prorated the first two seasons and they will become a full financial member in 2025 when the Big 12 signs a new TV deal.

[xudash]

It will be prorated the first two seasons and they will become a full financial member in 2025 when the Big 12 signs a new TV deal.


Have you heard anything about an interim adjustment to the existing media agreement for their inclusion? Oklahoma and Texas said then they intend to stay in the Big 12 through June 30, 2025. Texas and Oklahoma do not care about the financial well being of the new schools. I'm asking; I'm not trying to be snide about this.

I'll note it again, once UT and OU step out of that conference, you're looking at television markets and brands involving KSU, KU Baylor, TCU, TTU and Iowa State. Seriously, it's as though Cincinnati, Houston and Orlando might be propping them up on a relative basis, but it still isn't going to be close to the current payout per school.

[X-band '01]

Don't forget BYU.

Their media markets would then include Salt Lake City, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Cincinnati, Orlando, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Pittsburgh. Basketball will still be good but foosball...not so much.

[xu82]

Don't forget BYU.

Their media markets would then include Salt Lake City, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Cincinnati, Orlando, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Pittsburgh. Basketball will still be good but foosball...not so much.

I apologize in advance, and it’s not my intent to derail the thread but; have you ever been to Salt Lake City? We flew in and hoped to get something to eat before heading to Park City. We drove all over town and and saw nothing but closed shops and boarded up stores. We saw a sign for a Marriott or something and figured they had to have a restaurant so we didn’t starve to death.

I realize that’s a curious little rant. It’s obviously a major city and serious market if they can support an NBA team. I guess every place is different so we can all find an option that works for us. Salt Lake City felt like a dream location for people who want to avoid enjoying life.

[paulxu]

Perhaps their restaurants are not open at 3:30 AM?

[xu82]

You’d think they’d want to be open after the strip clubs close!

This was a Saturday afternoon. Go figure?

[GoMuskies]

BYU's TV market is the entire country, honestly.

I've not been to SLC, but Utah may be my favorite state. At least southern Utah. Zion, Bryce, Escalante. Place is absurd.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I apologize in advance, and it’s not my intent to derail the thread but; have you ever been to Salt Lake City? We flew in and hoped to get something to eat before heading to Park City. We drove all over town and and saw nothing but closed shops and boarded up stores. We saw a sign for a Marriott or something and figured they had to have a restaurant so we didn’t starve to death.

I realize that’s a curious little rant. It’s obviously a major city and serious market if they can support an NBA team. I guess every place is different so we can all find an option that works for us. Salt Lake City felt like a dream location for people who want to avoid enjoying life.

Interesting.

One of my best friends from college lives in Salt Lake. I have been there a few times to visit him and he took me a lot of places. Although their drinking and bar laws were weird. I think it has changed but you had to be a member or guest of a member to go to the bars. Also couldn't have more than one pitcher of beer for every 2 people. So 3 people could only order one pitcher not 2.

[XUGRAD80]

The question in regards to TV contracts with the BIG 12 seems to be…..can the inclusion of the TV markets of Houston, Orlando, Cincinnati, and what BYU with its national audience can bring to the table, make up for the loss of Texas and Oklahoma? And if not, how much of a drop off will it be?

I really don’t know the answer to that question, but I think that some of it will depend on just how well the teams in the Big 12 do in regards to contending for national championships. That may well depend on what happens with the football playoff in the future, along with how scheduling changes, and don’t discount the desire by certain broadcast networks to compete with others. As they say at auctions, it only takes two people in the room with the same desire to own an object, to run the price up. If enough of the Big12 teams are regular contenders for football and basketball championships, it will remain a hot commodity and it should have no trouble getting paid big bucks.

As I said before, I don’t know what it’s going g to happen 3-4 years down the road, but it’s going to be interesting (and possibly entertaining!).

[X-man]

Interesting.

One of my best friends from college lives in Salt Lake. I have been there a few times to visit him and he took me a lot of places. Although their drinking and bar laws were weird. I think it has changed but you had to be a member or guest of a member to go to the bars. Also couldn't have more than one pitcher of beer for every 2 people. So 3 people could only order one pitcher not 2.

About 30 years ago, my family and I did the southern Utah-northern Arizona loop, staying at a place near Moab on the Colorado riverway as well as in the lodges at Bryce, Zion, the Grand Canyon (north rim), and Canyon de Chelly. At dinner in Moab, I ordered a second (3.2%) beer and was told by my waitress that Utah doesn't allow a second beer to someone until their first beer is entirely finished. She apologized, but said I'd have to finish up before the second one could be delivered. Pretty weird stuff, though not as strange as the former Connecticut blue law that allowed one to buy a condom but you couldn't legally use it. Not sure how that one was enforced.

[D-West & PO-Z]

About 30 years ago, my family and I did the southern Utah-northern Arizona loop, staying at a place near Moab on the Colorado riverway as well as in the lodges at Bryce, Zion, the Grand Canyon (north rim), and Canyon de Chelly. At dinner in Moab, I ordered a second (3.2%) beer and was told by my waitress that Utah doesn't allow a second beer to someone until their first beer is entirely finished. She apologized, but said I'd have to finish up before the second one could be delivered. Pretty weird stuff, though not as strange as the former Connecticut blue law that allowed one to buy a condom but you couldn't legally use it. Not sure how that one was enforced.

Yeah, crazy.

In my scenario we had 4 guys with us and wanted to order 2 pitchers of beer but our buddy stepped outside to take a phone call. The waitress told us she would have to wait to bring the second pitcher until he was back at the table.

[xudash]

This from the Cincy paper today - (behind a paywall, so just the key comments) - from Paul Daugherty:

How can it not be the best when Big 12 membership will bring in buckets of money the likes of which UC has never seen? An estimated $18 mil in TV money in ’23 and ’24. Then, when UC is granted full membership in ’25, somewhere between $40-$50 mil annually. In the AAC, UC’s take was $7 mil a year.

Cunningham said UC athletic supporters last year paid out more than $1 million in NIL money, while striking more than 200 deals with local businesses. That’s great, until you realize that a rising high school senior QB apparently has signed an $8 million NIL deal to play at Tennessee.

UC has launched its Day One campaign, with the goal to raise $100 million over four years. That’s ambitious. And given the asks in recent years already laid on donors, seeking another $100 mil is a bit beyond reasonable.

I continue to refuse to believe that the Big XII will sustain annual per school payments of anything close to $40 million after Texas and Oklahoma pull out. Well, there you go, if this info holds true:

https://www.tvrev.com/news/what-does-the-big-12-conference-gain-on-tv-from-adding-four-new-members

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has estimated that Texas and Oklahoma (two of college football’s most valuable brands) amount to half of the the value of its media contract. So any future Big 12 TV deal is automatically going to be worth less than that $28 million. But the task was to make up as much of that number as possible with new members.

Even if they’ll certainly fall short of the current $28 million per school rate when the new TV deal is negotiated for 2025, a new one that comes in around $20 million per with all members being equal contributors to that total could wind up being a better situation for all involved; including TV partners. A new contract with FOX and/or ESPN (or even an emerging streaming entity) that isn’t so reliant on a giant like Texas or Oklahoma could be a healthier setup for network expectations, as game-to-game tune-in could be much more consistent and easier to sell to advertisers at scale.

How things turn out here could wind up telling us a lot about how realignment shakes out over the next decade as college sports continues to evolve.

UC is going to improve its position from what it had in the terrible AAC, but it has two fundamental problems:

1. Though it improves its position, the money gap will become worse vis-a-vis the SEC and B1G, in particular; and

2. I seriously, don't believe they have a prayer in hell on the N-I-L side, especially given Daugherty's point about donor fatigue.

What is fun about this in a twisted way is that some of UC's more moronic fans believe they've made it to the promised land.

[XUGRAD80]

Re: donor exhaustion and NIL opportunities for UC

One of my longest term and best friends is in the top 6% of all UCat Members, based on points (points are awarded for buying season tickets and making donations). He donates about $5-6,000 per year plus has season tickets for several sports. He is a small business owner, but certainly isn’t rich. Let me say this, if HE is in the top 6% then I’m willing to say that there must be A LOT of opportunities for UC to raise money and/or develop NIL’s for their students. They just haven’t done a very good job of doing either in the past, if his status as a donor is any indication. I believe that they will do nothing but continue to grow. The fact that for the 1st time ever they have sold 100% of their season tickets this year should show something. The home football schedule sucks. Nobody is buying tickets because of WHO they are playing. But with schools like Baylor, OKST, BYU, Kansas, etc. are coming to Nippert and Shoemaker as part of regular season schedule, I don’t see any reason to not believe that interest in UC athletics will only increase, and that will in itself increase support from the business community. I expect that season tickets for football will increase in price by quite a bit, and that they have a waiting list too.

I know that there are many on this board who will always refuse to give UC ANY credit or props, and will always do whatever they can to minimize any successes they may experience. But I’m not going to be that way. If them getting into the Big 12 is not the “promised land” for them, what is? It’s going to be a VERY strong Basketball Conference. Already is a very strong conference in baseball. And it’s football will only be behind the SEC when you look at the overall product, IMO. Even if you put the BIG10 in front of the BIG12, that’s still the 3rd best football conference in the country, which ain’t to bad. They’ve put themself into a position where even if the top football schools break away from the NCAA, that they will most likely be in that group. What more could they ask for at this point?

[xudash]

You lost me when you wrote that the remodeled BIG12 Conference will only be behind the SEC with football with its overall product.

I want to see UC do well as an institution for the benefit of Cincinnati. I have no problem with UC's basketball program regaining some of its lost stature, because that only helps the Shootout - as Xavier fans, we can all be comfortable in our skins, given what X has achieved and is set up to achieve moving forward, especially with Sean at the helm, our BE affiliation and our facilities.

I am truly and simply trying to get a current read on where FOOTBALL is going to shake out overall and specifically with respect to the BIG12, once Texas and Oklahoma bolt for the SEC.

Make no mistake about one FACT (sorry, no other way to see it at this point, given what is transpiring): the SEC and the B1G are the titans of college football. Would the Pac12 and ACC argue with you about their stature? Probably, but third place is a rather distant position as it stands now anyway. Keep in mind that as UC fans are "looking up" to the future, there are Baylor and TCU and other BIG12 fans - also with 40k capacity stadiums - feeling like they're looking at the abyss.

I made it very clear that, IMO, UC will improve its position. The issue is by how much as developments proceed during this decade, and will it be enough to compete at the highest level, or will it be enough to continue to be able to field a competitive product, or will it wither and die at some point. I see the second scenario happening for UC. It was fortunate to make it into the college playoff last year. Luke Fickell is a class act and he has done wonders for UC, building off what his predecessors built there. But it took a LOT of twists and turns for them to make it into the club - make it into last year's playoff. That will be very hard for them to accomplish moving forward, in my opinion, probably even with an expanded playoff system.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/i-team/uc-athletes-succeed-as-deficits-rise#:~:text=UC%E2%80%99s%20%2430.4%20million%20co ntribution%20that%20year%20was%20exceeded,by%20the %20University%20of%20Connecticut%20with%20%2436%20 million.

I'm not gloating about UC running into problems as they move forward through an "improved position", although some of their fans are ridiculous when it comes to their comments about Xavier.

I'm spending time with this because they are a rival, I have a little time to waste doing it, and because these changes are rather seismic and it would be good to know how things may set up as we move through this decade and beyond.

The next VERY BIG question is what happens with our Fox media agreement with the BE. Some say north of $7 million per school. I hope that becomes reality. The only very good thing about not having football is all the expense and complexity that comes with having football.

[XUGRAD80]

Take OH ST and Michigan out of the B10 and what do you have? I’d have a hard time rating any of the other programs ahead of any of the top B12 schools, and I’d say the lower B12 schools are better than the lower Big10. That’s why I would rate the BiG12 over the BIG10…overall. I just feel that the Quantity of Quality in the 12 is superior to Big 10. Just my opinion, but there are others that do agree.

Regarding your opinion about Cincinnati making the playoffs again….I totally disagree. They will be back.In addition, I’d give BYU an outside chance of making it THIS YEAR. If they can go undefeated against the schedule they have, they will have certainly earned it.

When the playoff expands…..and it will….there will be 1-2 from the Big 12 going in every year.

[paulxu]

When they talk about a media deal with a streaming service (as opposed to regular or cable networks) do you suppose there are enough fans in all the B12 schools put together, to make the millions they would need? And wouldn't their OOC opponents have to sign up to watch the games??

[MHettel]

Take OH ST and Michigan out of the B10 and what do you have? I’d have a hard time rating any of the other programs ahead of any of the top B12 schools, and I’d say the lower B12 schools are better than the lower Big10. That’s why I would rate the BiG12 over the BIG10…overall. I just feel that the Quantity of Quality in the 12 is superior to Big 10. Just my opinion, but there are others that do agree.

Regarding your opinion about Cincinnati making the playoffs again….I totally disagree. They will be back.In addition, I’d give BYU an outside chance of making it THIS YEAR. If they can go undefeated against the schedule they have, they will have certainly earned it.

When the playoff expands…..and it will….there will be 1-2 from the Big 12 going in every year.

Im not a huge College Football fan, but the B10 seems to be considerably better than the B12 without OK and Texas. You cant just take Michigan and OSU out of the picture. They are blue bloods and have been relevant for decades and will remain so. Penn St is not currently at the top of their game, but they too have had long extended stretches among the elite. And Nebraska is the Football version of GTown. Sleeping giant. Wisconsin is probably the best of the rest, with MSU and Iowa occasionally putting top 25 teams out there. The rest of the B12.....yeah, pretty pedestrian.

But the Big 12 without UT and OK? Really what is there? Is UC the flagship? They are currently in the 5-6th year of their ONLY stretch of being competitive in the big picture. The remind me of Wichita State in Basketball....possibly irrelevant just as fast as they became relevant. K-State? OK State? Baylor? OK, these teams make the intermittent top 25 every once in a while. Maybe even borderline top 10 on occasion. But not sustained excellence by any means. Texas Tech, Houston, UCF, BYU.......Kansas, Iowa State?

We KNOW money is going to drive the success of the conference and by extension the member teams. I dont see ANY appeal in the B12...at all. It's not about adding markets. Big TV money isnt trying to appeal to Houston and Orlando and Cincy. Big TV money wants COMPELLING BIG NAME matchups to get eyeballs in EVERY market across the country. College Football games occur in a pretty limited time window generally on Saturdays. I have a hard time believing that a KState vs. UCF matchup is going to get many viewers.

I will agree that this is STILL the best move for UC (football and basketball), but the B12 just dropped to the bottom of the Big 5 with these recent moves.

[Masterofreality]

I just know that Xavier will beat SucKS ass every year. And they will get their asses handed to them again by Kansas.
Nobody in Ohio, other than Borecat fan will watch them on Saturday. Besides Ohio State, there are 6 MAC schools that have followings, and those fans could give a crap less about uc.
Whatever league they are in, they are still playing in a 40k fishbowl with zero regional appeal. Glad they feel better about themselves.

[hoopster68]

One issue for BYU is water. Check out the NYT's major article on Sunday, and todays (June 14) column by Paul Krugman on the "Great Salt Lake." The desert SW is about to become an even bigger desert. How does this not impact enrollment, and the attractiveness of Salt Lake City/BYU? N.B. --- this is not a political statement, rather a comment on the medium-term (un)attractiveness of one of the conference schools.

[GoMuskies]

Wut?

[xu82]

One issue for BYU is water. Check out the NYT's major article on Sunday, and todays (June 14) column by Paul Krugman on the "Great Salt Lake." The desert SW is about to become an even bigger desert. How does this not impact enrollment, and the attractiveness of Salt Lake City/BYU? N.B. --- this is not a political statement, rather a comment on the medium-term (un)attractiveness of one of the conference schools.

Does Vegas have a line on who runs out of water first? Salt Lake or……Vegas?

[XUGRAD80]

BYU is an International Brand…just like Notre Dame in many ways. Many people will attend because it is “the” college for people that are Mormons to attend. People come from around the world to go there. Just like ND attracts Catholics.

Speaking of ND, ever been to South Bend, Indiana? I can’t think of anyone that would attend school there because of the “city”. It’s a dump. I’d probably never consider ND after seeing South Bend. Bloomington, Indiana is a world class city in comparison. Heck, even Dayton is so much better there is no comparison.

[paulxu]

Heck, even Dayton is so much better there is no comparison.

The mind reels....

[Masterofreality]

byu is an international brand…just like notre dame in many ways. Many people will attend because it is “the” college for people that are mormons to attend. People come from around the world to go there. Just like nd attracts catholics.

Speaking of nd, ever been to south bend, indiana? I can’t think of anyone that would attend school there because of the “city”. It’s a dump. I’d probably never consider nd after seeing south bend. Bloomington, indiana is a world class city in comparison. Heck, even dayton is so much better there is no comparison.

thanks mayor pete!!!!

[MHettel]

BYU is an International Brand…just like Notre Dame in many ways. Many people will attend because it is “the” college for people that are Mormons to attend. People come from around the world to go there. Just like ND attracts Catholics.

Speaking of ND, ever been to South Bend, Indiana? I can’t think of anyone that would attend school there because of the “city”. It’s a dump. I’d probably never consider ND after seeing South Bend. Bloomington, Indiana is a world class city in comparison. Heck, even Dayton is so much better there is no comparison.

I hate ND. But BYU is no ND. The number of Catholics in the country and the world is probably 50:1 to the number of Mormons.
Not even in the same universe

[GoMuskies]

I hate ND. But BYU is no ND. The number of Catholics in the country and the world is probably 50:1 to the number of Mormons.
Not even in the same universe

Sure, but there are also 50:1 the number of Catholic colleges to Mormon colleges. And quite a few people who go to other Catholic colleges couldn't give the first shit about Notre Dame.

Also, I don't think anyone is saying having BYU in a conference (or in a TV contract) is as valuable as having Notre Dame in a conference/part of a TV contract. It's analogous but clearly not at the same level.

[xubrew]

BYU's football TV deal with ESPN is currently $6 million per year. Not sure what they make from the WCC deal. They will likely get more when they join the Big 12. I don't know for certain how it will play out, but I'm guessing each school will be making about $20 million-ish in total FB and BB revenue in 2025. That's total.

ND's football deal with NBC is $15 million per year. Not sure what they get from the ACC deal.

Not sure what any of that means, or what it will mean in the future, but I did just want to share the data.

[XUGRAD80]

I hate ND. But BYU is no ND. The number of Catholics in the country and the world is probably 50:1 to the number of Mormons.
Not even in the same universe


I never said that they were the equal of ND, I said that they were LIKE ND….in that their support is very much religious in its base and is international in its scope.

[MHettel]

I never said that they were the equal of ND, I said that they were LIKE ND….in that their support is very much religious in its base and is international in its scope.

And I'm just saying that if I'm a TV marketing executive, I'm not exactly trying to capture the Mormon audience. Hell, right off the bat like half the products that are advertised on TV arent even allowed to be consumed / used by Mormons.

I reject the Mormon argument. Just no incremental value to having them in a conference just cause they are Mormon.

[MHettel]

Sure, but there are also 50:1 the number of Catholic colleges to Mormon colleges. And quite a few people who go to other Catholic colleges couldn't give the first shit about Notre Dame.

Also, I don't think anyone is saying having BYU in a conference (or in a TV contract) is as valuable as having Notre Dame in a conference/part of a TV contract. It's analogous but clearly not at the same level.

You are right it IS analogous. I agree with you there. But thats not the point.

the point is the LEVEL. And it's not close. So it doesnt matter.

[MHettel]

Crude research-

Worldwide Mormon Population: 16.6M

Wikipedia estimates that 2% of the US is Mormon so about: 6.5M total
Another Website gives state by state estimates and says the average is 134K per state: 6.7M


it appears Utah, Idaho, Arizona and Nevada are the only states that have a Mormon population of 5% of their total.

27 of 50 states have less than 50,000 mormons.

I bet more people will watch BYU rooting for them to lose than will be watching and rooting for them to win.

[XUGRAD80]

You are right it IS analogous. I agree with you there. But thats not the point.

the point is the LEVEL. And it's not close. So it doesnt matter.

That might the point that YOU are trying to make, but it’s not the point that I was trying to make. The point that I was trying to make is that BYU is not a regional school, that relies on a geographic region for its fans, any more than Notre Dame is.

Something to consider….

As you say, you’re not that much of a college football fan, so please listen to those of us that are. College football fandom doesn’t rely on a personal history with an institution as much as college BB does. It is MUCH bigger than college basketball in its popularity and in the number of fans that it draws in person and specifically on TV. (You can’t honestly believe that all the 100,000 that can be found in the stadiums for schools like Tennessee, Alabama, etc. actually went to school there, can you?) Beyond that, the numbers that college football draws in TV viewers dwarfs those that BB draws. A top 10, even a top 20, game at anytime during the season is must see TV for the millions of college football fans around the country, even if they don’t have a rooting interest in either of the schools playing. Nor does it matter what conference they are playing within. A prime time game on ABC is going to draw millions of TV viewers, no matter who is playing, or what conference they are from. That’s why college football is driving all of this movement. UC doesn’t have to rely on a certain regional following and BYU doesn’t have to rely on just Mormons, or people in the Salt Lake City area, to watch it play. If they are playing in a prime time game against a quality opponent, people from all over will tune in to watch it. Part of that is the fact that they aren’t playing 30 games a year, they are only playing 12 regular season games (and every one of them matters), and usually one bowl game. There is a limited number of times that fans can attend games, or watch on TV, a certain team. It’s about 1/3 the opportunities that basketball offers. It might be just my opinion, but I think that TV viewership numbers will back me up, that college football is much less reliant on regional support, than college basketball is. I firmly believe that there are many many more people that are just pure fans of the game of football, than there are of basketball. That certainly effects TV viewership numbers and is one reason that the TV numbers for college football are far superior to college basketball.

[paulxu]

I understand why we couldn't sustain it, and we are much better off for the change.
But I'm glad that when I was at Xavier they had football games to attend. Made the college experience more enjoyable.
Especially when we beat UC !

[MHettel]

That might the point that YOU are trying to make, but it’s not the point that I was trying to make. The point that I was trying to make is that BYU is not a regional school, that relies on a geographic region for its fans, any more than Notre Dame is.

Something to consider….

As you say, you’re not that much of a college football fan, so please listen to those of us that are. College football fandom doesn’t rely on a personal history with an institution as much as college BB does. It is MUCH bigger than college basketball in its popularity and in the number of fans that it draws in person and specifically on TV. (You can’t honestly believe that all the 100,000 that can be found in the stadiums for schools like Tennessee, Alabama, etc. actually went to school there, can you?) Beyond that, the numbers that college football draws in TV viewers dwarfs those that BB draws. A top 10, even a top 20, game at anytime during the season is must see TV for the millions of college football fans around the country, even if they don’t have a rooting interest in either of the schools playing. Nor does it matter what conference they are playing within. A prime time game on ABC is going to draw millions of TV viewers, no matter who is playing, or what conference they are from. That’s why college football is driving all of this movement. UC doesn’t have to rely on a certain regional following and BYU doesn’t have to rely on just Mormons, or people in the Salt Lake City area, to watch it play. If they are playing in a prime time game against a quality opponent, people from all over will tune in to watch it. Part of that is the fact that they aren’t playing 30 games a year, they are only playing 12 regular season games (and every one of them matters), and usually one bowl game. There is a limited number of times that fans can attend games, or watch on TV, a certain team. It’s about 1/3 the opportunities that basketball offers. It might be just my opinion, but I think that TV viewership numbers will back me up, that college football is much less reliant on regional support, than college basketball is. I firmly believe that there are many many more people that are just pure fans of the game of football, than there are of basketball. That certainly effects TV viewership numbers and is one reason that the TV numbers for college football are far superior to college basketball.

Ok, I read what you said. And I'm not sure if it supports your initial points that BYU has some extra appeal, or just dismantles it.

Basically, you are saying "college football fans just love college football and cant get enough of it. And it doesnt matter who is playing....if its a good matchup with quality opponents, then people will watch"

So I guess I'm back to my original point. Adding BYU, Houston, UC and UCF will in no way, shape, or form come anywhere NEAR replacing Texas and Oklahoma. In fact, during these little viewing windows each week, we will STILL get to see OK and Texas play....but in a different conference and almost certainly in a bigger matchup than almost anything that the B12 can put out there. Honestly, the strongest conference (by FAR) is adding the 2 best teams from what was probably the 3rd best conference, and the 3rd best conference is replacing the 2 best teams with 4 teams that generally lack any successful history or excitement among fans. So now, the SEC essentially gets ONE more game per week to televise during the little viewing window and those games are just naturally going to have higher stakes because winning an SEC game is huge.

and let me clarify. Just because Im not a huge college football fan and dont spend all day Saturday watching games doesnt mean I live on Mars and have no idea what college football is like. I'm VERY aware.

[XUGRAD80]

I don’t believe that in any statement that I’ve made that is said that those 4 teams will replace the 2 teams leaving on an equal basis, in regards to fan interest, money generated, or tv ratings. They won’t. However, it’s not going to be the train wreak or plunge into the depths that some here have implied that it will be, either. All 4 of the programs entering the Big 12 are solid programs with good fan bases and a bright future ahead of them, IMO. They aren’t on a par with the top 10 programs in the country, but neither are school like Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Cal, or Rutgers. The Big 12 will remain one of the top conferences in the country and will most certainly see many of its members be ranked year in and year out. It will still command a large TV contract and the schools will still be making millions and millions of dollars because of their membership in the conference.

College football is about much more than just watching the Ohio State’s, Alabama’s or Texas’s of the world, or just about who wins the national championship and who doesn’t. For those of you that don’t have the opportunity, or haven’t taken the opportunity, to experience a game day (not just the game) on campus at a place like a Notre Dame, a Tennessee, or even a “lowly” UC, I wish you would. In many ways, and for many of the fans, the game itself doesn’t even matter that much. It’s a social “event” that is anticipated and planned for for days prior to it happening, and that lasts far longer than just the game time. It is quite different than college basketball in many ways. While winning does bring in more fans, the whole game day experience of a major college football game is quite appealing in and of itself. I know that UC has certainly added season ticket holders and interest because of this move. I’ll have to do some research, but I’ll bet that the same is true for the others involved too.

[MHettel]

I don’t believe that in any statement that I’ve made that is said that those 4 teams will replace the 2 teams leaving on an equal basis, in regards to fan interest, money generated, or tv ratings. They won’t. However, it’s not going to be the train wreak or plunge into the depths that some here have implied that it will be, either. All 4 of the programs entering the Big 12 are solid programs with good fan bases and a bright future ahead of them, IMO. They aren’t on a par with the top 10 programs in the country, but neither are school like Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Cal, or Rutgers. The Big 12 will remain one of the top conferences in the country and will most certainly see many of its members be ranked year in and year out. It will still command a large TV contract and the schools will still be making millions and millions of dollars because of their membership in the conference.

College football is about much more than just watching the Ohio State’s, Alabama’s or Texas’s of the world, or just about who wins the national championship and who doesn’t. For those of you that don’t have the opportunity, or haven’t taken the opportunity, to experience a game day (not just the game) on campus at a place like a Notre Dame, a Tennessee, or even a “lowly” UC, I wish you would. In many ways, and for many of the fans, the game itself doesn’t even matter that much. It’s a social “event” that is anticipated and planned for for days prior to it happening, and that lasts far longer than just the game time. It is quite different than college basketball in many ways. While winning does bring in more fans, the whole game day experience of a major college football game is quite appealing in and of itself. I know that UC has certainly added season ticket holders and interest because of this move. I’ll have to do some research, but I’ll bet that the same is true for the others involved too.

I didnt say, nor do I think that the B12 will be a train wreck. But I do fully believe that as a result of the changes in the SEC and B12, that the SEC which is already the premier (BY FAR) football conference in the country will actually be BETTER with the addition of Texas and OKLA, and that the B12 which is generally perceived to be somewhere between 3-4 among the Big 5 conferences will actually drop to 5 in my opinion.

The reality is that EVERY conference has a few teams like Rutgers or Wake or Duke that are punching bags. But most of those conferences also have a handfull of Blue Blood teams that offset the bottom feeders.

Blue Bloods
SEC: where do you start? Bama, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia
ACC: Clemson for sure. Florida State and Miami have deep histories and can get back to elite status
B10: OSU, UofM. Penn Stat and Nebraksa similar to Fla St and Miami. Wisconsin if usually very solid if not top 15.
Pac12: USC and Oregon. UCLA and UW just below
Big 12:............I'm just not seeing it. They will not have a single "premier" football team to be the flagship.

No conference is perfect. And VERY few teams just stay at the top forever. But it does seem that certain teams have their little cycles where they are "top 5 good" for an extended period and they maybe drop back and do a reset and before you know it they are right back in the mix.

And of course there are a handfull of teams that just NEVER are going to do anything. I just see alot of those teams in the B12.

If the Football playoffs expand to 8, I see the B12 as getting 1 team every year. I'm not seeing where they could get more than one bid. Maybe once in a while.

[X-band '01]

football. sucks. period.

It was an added bonus that it didn't exist when I came to Xavier. Good riddance to that blood sport and I hope it meets its eventual demise in a future generation.

[JTG]

football. sucks. period.

It was an added bonus that it didn't exist when I came to Xavier. Good riddance to that blood sport and I hope it meets its eventual demise in a future generation.

Wow, you are definitely in a minority with that opinion. Football probably has more fans than basketball and baseball combined, throwing in Hockey & Soccer too.

[XUGRAD80]

Well it’s been an interesting discussion so far and only one thing is for sure, it’s all just speculation on our part and only time will tell. But I think that this discussion has reached the point where it’s all redundant and is repeating itself. So I will gracefully bow out and wish you all the best.

One thing I hope we can all agree on…..GO X!

[fellahmuskie]

football. sucks. period.

It was an added bonus that it didn't exist when I came to Xavier. Good riddance to that blood sport and I hope it meets its eventual demise in a future generation.

Same. I would hate being a fan of a school with a football team. It sucks enough that Cincy has the Bengals.

[sirthought]

UC now has the #3 rated recruiting class in the country for football. Three and four star recruits are liking what they saw the last couple seasons out of Clifton.

It's only one year's class, and you don't know how things will shake out, but I think that team in a year or so should be back in the top 5. As long as Fick is coaching at UC things will continue to stay competitive and in the hunt for BCS. This season is a bit unknown with so many major pieces leaving for the NFL.

After the change the Big 12 could easily be considered one of the top basketball conferences. That will mean leverage with media contracts, no doubt about it.

And with UC, BYU, Houston, and UCF now all recruiting for football as members of the Big 12, all of those programs will be gaining strength. I don't think their status as a conference will drop off at all because of one very-good Oklahoma and a not-so-great Texas leaving.

UCF has a HUGE alumni base and finally a reason to start donating to the program for recruiting. It's currently the largest campus in the nation. Houston is a desirable school and could easily start building better recruiting classes out of Texas. And UC and BYU have been doing well, just on the outside looking in.

Yes, the SEC stranglehold will continue, but there's still plenty of good players and opportunity that media outlets will want to be gunning for.

The increase in media money for UC will easily cover their conference exit fee. I hate the business college football has become, but with all the road blocks UC has suffered, they are finally starting to gain some real steam to be in a position of power.

[Xville]

UC now has the #3 rated recruiting class in the country for football. Three and four star recruits are liking what they saw the last couple seasons out of Clifton.

It's only one year's class, and you don't know how things will shake out, but I think that team in a year or so should be back in the top 5. As long as Fick is coaching at UC things will continue to stay competitive and in the hunt for BCS. This season is a bit unknown with so many major pieces leaving for the NFL.

After the change the Big 12 could easily be considered one of the top basketball conferences. That will mean leverage with media contracts, no doubt about it.

And with UC, BYU, Houston, and UCF now all recruiting for football as members of the Big 12, all of those programs will be gaining strength. I don't think their status as a conference will drop off at all because of one very-good Oklahoma and a not-so-great Texas leaving.

UCF has a HUGE alumni base and finally a reason to start donating to the program for recruiting. It's currently the largest campus in the nation. Houston is a desirable school and could easily start building better recruiting classes out of Texas. And UC and BYU have been doing well, just on the outside looking in.

Yes, the SEC stranglehold will continue, but there's still plenty of good players and opportunity that media outlets will want to be gunning for.

The increase in media money for UC will easily cover their conference exit fee. I hate the business college football has become, but with all the road blocks UC has suffered, they are finally starting to gain some real steam to be in a position of power.

UC’s recruiting in 22 has them ranked 42nd with 3 4 stars and 16 3 stars. They are currently ranked 3rd with that exact same breakdown. My guess is that this this time next year they are closer to the 42 than the 3.

[GoMuskies]

UC's 2023 class is a nice one, but it will end up nowhere close to #3. They simply have their whole class basically done, while most of the others only have about half their spots filled. If you look at the average ranking of their commits, it's clear when the dust settles that class will be closer to #30 than #3.

[D-West & PO-Z]

uc now has the #3 rated recruiting class in the country for football. Three and four star recruits are liking what they saw the last couple seasons out of clifton.

It's only one year's class, and you don't know how things will shake out, but i think that team in a year or so should be back in the top 5. As long as fick is coaching at uc things will continue to stay competitive and in the hunt for bcs. This season is a bit unknown with so many major pieces leaving for the nfl.

After the change the big 12 could easily be considered one of the top basketball conferences. That will mean leverage with media contracts, no doubt about it.

And with uc, byu, houston, and ucf now all recruiting for football as members of the big 12, all of those programs will be gaining strength. I don't think their status as a conference will drop off at all because of one very-good oklahoma and a not-so-great texas leaving.

Ucf has a huge alumni base and finally a reason to start donating to the program for recruiting. It's currently the largest campus in the nation. Houston is a desirable school and could easily start building better recruiting classes out of texas. And uc and byu have been doing well, just on the outside looking in.

Yes, the sec stranglehold will continue, but there's still plenty of good players and opportunity that media outlets will want to be gunning for.

The increase in media money for uc will easily cover their conference exit fee. I hate the business college football has become, but with all the road blocks uc has suffered, they are finally starting to gain some real steam to be in a position of power.

bcs?

[xubrew]

The list of schools that have raised the level of their brand as much as UC has in recent years is very small. In fact they are probably unequaled. Perhaps Baylor is also on that list. The investments they've put into athletics have paid off big time. Any and all past predictions of how they were going to collapse or fall short have been proven to be spectacularly wrong.

[xudash]

Quoting myself from my earlier post:

I made it very clear that, IMO, UC will improve its position. The issue is by how much as developments proceed during this decade, and will it be enough to compete at the highest level, or will it be enough to continue to be able to field a competitive product, or will it wither and die at some point. I see the second scenario happening for UC.

Go back and take a look at the WCPO report. Looking at it from the overall institutional level, the following must be taken into account:

UC’s $27.1 million contribution to athletics in the 2021 fiscal year was a 10.8 reduction from the prior year, in which UC set a record by contributing $30.4 million to athletics.

“What we don’t talk about is where money is not being spent,” McNay said. “Money is not being spent on the students. It’s not being spent on the faculty. It’s not being spent on the academic mission of the university.”

If you wash out the effects of the COVID timeframe (i.e. no butts in the seats, etc.), if you consider that UC is more successful with attendance figures at Nippert Stadium now, and with a positive bump in media payouts coming down the road, you have to believe that the university subsidy has a chance to go down. The problem is that it is a small chance, because expenditures will increase as UC continues to try to keep up at the highest level. I am not even addressing the NIL issue here. At least UC has the advantage of spreading that subsidy over a large student population. The issue with that is what Professor McNay brings up – the money is going into athletics, not into academics. As long as the student population tolerates/accepts/puts up with all that, then UC can at least grind forward, doing what they’re doing.

One last thing, regarding my opinion on UC’s ability to compete at the highest level: UC’s playoff game against Alabama was never in doubt. It will always be that way for UC IF they make it back to that level. Why? Because while UC can field some damn fine players on both sides of the ball in key positions, they will never have the ability to platoon waves of highly talented players into a game like Alabama or Ohio State, etc. can – they’ll be able to fight for a while during a game, but will tend to be beaten down by sometime in the third quarter, as a general rule.

That is why, IMO, UC will be able to move forward for a while with fielding a competitive product. You can't become a juggernaut with a 40k capacity stadium.

[xubrew]

Quoting myself from my earlier post:

I made it very clear that, IMO, UC will improve its position. The issue is by how much as developments proceed during this decade, and will it be enough to compete at the highest level, or will it be enough to continue to be able to field a competitive product, or will it wither and die at some point. I see the second scenario happening for UC.

Go back and take a look at the WCPO report. Looking at it from the overall institutional level, the following must be taken into account:

UC’s $27.1 million contribution to athletics in the 2021 fiscal year was a 10.8 reduction from the prior year, in which UC set a record by contributing $30.4 million to athletics.

“What we don’t talk about is where money is not being spent,” McNay said. “Money is not being spent on the students. It’s not being spent on the faculty. It’s not being spent on the academic mission of the university.”

If you wash out the effects of the COVID timeframe (i.e. no butts in the seats, etc.), if you consider that UC is more successful with attendance figures at Nippert Stadium now, and with a positive bump in media payouts coming down the road, you have to believe that the university subsidy has a chance to go down. The problem is that it is a small chance, because expenditures will increase as UC continues to try to keep up at the highest level. I am not even addressing the NIL issue here. At least UC has the advantage of spreading that subsidy over a large student population. The issue with that is what Professor McNay brings up – the money is going into athletics, not into academics. As long as the student population tolerates/accepts/puts up with all that, then UC can at least grind forward, doing what they’re doing.

One last thing, regarding my opinion on UC’s ability to compete at the highest level: UC’s playoff game against Alabama was never in doubt. It will always be that way for UC IF they make it back to that level. Why? Because while UC can field some damn fine players on both sides of the ball in key positions, they will never have the ability to platoon waves of highly talented players into a game like Alabama or Ohio State, etc. can – they’ll be able to fight for a while during a game, but will tend to be beaten down by sometime in the third quarter, as a general rule.

That is why, IMO, UC will be able to move forward for a while with fielding a competitive product. You can't become a juggernaut with a 40k capacity stadium.


So, UC's athletic spending has gone up, their enrollment has gone up, and their tuition continues to remain pretty much the same. It did go up a little this past year, but over time it's been kept pretty consistent. At the end of the day, students basically care about the overall price tag that they're having to pay and that's it. So if they're not having to pay more in tuition, most aren't going to feel all that strongly about how much or how little the university is subsidizing athletics.

There is a piece that I'm missing here. Tuition is the same and athletic spending is up. So, one could only logically conclude that spending in other areas has been cut or eliminated entirely. The question is, to the quote in bold, what specifically aren't they spending money on?? People within the UC have said this, but when asked specifically where spending in other areas has been cut and what specific impacts it has had, no one seems to know. They HAVE to have cut something, but there's been no salary cuts, no noticeable reduction in faculty (at least I don't think), no fewer courses or degrees being offered. So...while this statement would make sense, where exactly is UC "not spending money" where they previously had been?? I'm genuinely curious. Enrollment continues to go up, but not by THAT much. It's not like it has doubled or anything like that.

And...I don't know how long this ride will continue, but holy shit they've elevated themselves.

[X-band '01]

UC now has the #3 rated recruiting class in the country for football. Three and four star recruits are liking what they saw the last couple seasons out of Clifton.

It's only one year's class, and you don't know how things will shake out, but I think that team in a year or so should be back in the top 5. As long as Fick is coaching at UC things will continue to stay competitive and in the hunt for BCS. This season is a bit unknown with so many major pieces leaving for the NFL.

After the change the Big 12 could easily be considered one of the top basketball conferences. That will mean leverage with media contracts, no doubt about it.

And with UC, BYU, Houston, and UCF now all recruiting for football as members of the Big 12, all of those programs will be gaining strength. I don't think their status as a conference will drop off at all because of one very-good Oklahoma and a not-so-great Texas leaving.

UCF has a HUGE alumni base and finally a reason to start donating to the program for recruiting. It's currently the largest campus in the nation. Houston is a desirable school and could easily start building better recruiting classes out of Texas. And UC and BYU have been doing well, just on the outside looking in.

Yes, the SEC stranglehold will continue, but there's still plenty of good players and opportunity that media outlets will want to be gunning for.

The increase in media money for UC will easily cover their conference exit fee. I hate the business college football has become, but with all the road blocks UC has suffered, they are finally starting to gain some real steam to be in a position of power.

Has the Big 12 ever made overtures for launching a network yet? They're going to be at a disadvantage when they're fighting the likes of the B1G, ACC, SEC and Pac-12. Then again, the Pac-12 should be a lesson on how to not run a network. The best thing to happen to that conference was Larry Scott getting fired last year.

[GoMuskies]

Is today April Fool's Day?!?

If USC and UCLA to the Big Ten is real, I guess Gonzaga to the Big East starts to make more sense.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542559346453729281?s=20&t=yvvFxRNwl_n27rEnODFIjA

[D-West & PO-Z]

Is today April Fool's Day?!?

If USC and UCLA to the Big Ten is real, I guess Gonzaga to the Big East starts to make more sense.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542559346453729281?s=20&t=yvvFxRNwl_n27rEnODFIjA

Wow. That is wild.

[noteggs]

Pretty soon the big 10 is going to have all the P5 schools. Maybe that’s the plan

[xu82]

Pretty soon the big 10 is going to have all the P5 schools. Maybe that’s the plan

It will be the Big10, the SEC and then the Slippery Rock’s and Lehigh’s of the world.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Moves like this are why it amazes me that anyone gives a shit that college athletes can now make money due to NIL.

[xudash]

Is today April Fool's Day?!?

If USC and UCLA to the Big Ten is real, I guess Gonzaga to the Big East starts to make more sense.

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1542559346453729281?s=20&t=yvvFxRNwl_n27rEnODFIjA

Frankly, it kind of does make more sense, doesn't it. Different revenue dollars and different expenses associated with all this - between football and basketball, but it is the early 21st Century.

Perhaps a little too abstract of a thought, but think about Knute Rockne and ND travelling by train to play USC in LA and vice versa. That is now approaching 100 years ago. Think about the exposure for both schools back then. Move the "tape" forward to today and you have this announcement.

This is massive for all parties, but I have to believe that the B1G snagging Los Angeles as a viewing market, playing more games in the Rose Bowl, the new stadiums that are out there now - all of it will be accretive to that conference. It is a rather extraordinary response to the SEC's Texas and OU acquisition, especially considering when you compare Norman, OK to Los Angeles, CA. Granted, the SEC also picks up Austin, TX and the massive following of the Longhorns, while the B1G literally locks into only one market with the two schools announced, but the population of greater LA is 12.5 million versus Austin, TX at 2.3 million and Norman, OK at 1.4 million. You can argue different levels of passion, etc., but the POTENTIAL of this move is staggering.

[Xavier]

Saw Kansas has interest in joining the Big East/ football going independent. That would be great. As things are swirling so much it’s nice to be the only basketball centric league. Bring Gonzaga while your at it.

[paulxu]

I think egos get in the way of a lot of rational thought on some of this.
If they had gone to 4 16 team conferences you might have prevented this rush to 2 mega conferences.
Pac 12 will end up being the AAC of the west coast.

[webxu]

With USC and UCLA in the Big10, maybe Gonzaga to the Big East isnt all that far fetched in todays landscape.

[MHettel]

i give up.

Instead of playing the long game with some long term objective in mind, it appears that there will just continue to be a series of very short term decisions that are made that make sense in complete isolation. This wont be the last move. And the next move will probably also make no sense

[xubrew]

We have hockey only conferences, and it makes complete sense for that sport. I think football only conferences would make sense as well. Football is it's own animal. it's not anything like any other college sport. The roster size is unique. The schedule length is unique. The physical nature of the game is unique. The necessary resources are unique. It's totally it's own thing.

Basketball is also a revenue generating sport, but that is where the similarities with football end. In terms of resources, roster size, schedule length, necessary support staff, etc, basketball has far more in common with volleyball, and softball, and soccer, and pretty much every other sport. Basketball has more in common with rifle than it does football.

UCLA and Rutgers playing in football every year isn't that ridiculous. UCLA and Rutgers playing in basketball, and baseball, and softball, and volleyball, and women's soccer is a little more ridiculous. Those sports would be better off playing a conference schedule that's more regionally based. Unlike football, every other sport plays multiple games a week and plays during the week. Not just once a week on the weekends. I'm becoming more and more of a proponent of football only conferences and/or different conference lineups for football than for all other sports.

[paulxu]

I gave up on football when ND aligned with the ACC instead of the more natural Big10.

[xudash]

Now there is a tweet out about Kansas looking at moving to the Big East. Isn't all of this fun!

https://twitter.com/MarcFiscHoops/status/1542577924410327042

But wait, that would "hurt" the University of Cincinnati! Oh, never mind.

[JTG]

Saw Kansas has interest in joining the Big East/ football going independent. That would be great. As things are swirling so much it’s nice to be the only basketball centric league. Bring Gonzaga while your at it.

That has to be fake. Unless Kansas decides to play 11 homecoming football games as visitors.

[Xville]

That has to be fake. Unless Kansas decides to play 11 homecoming football games as visitors.

There have been lots of rumors and smoke over the last several years of Kansas looking to get out of the big 12...I wouldn't be surprised by this at all.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Kansas leaving the Big 12 would make no sense unless the Big 12 starts to collapse. Even though their football team sucks they make way more money than they would in the BE.

[X-band '01]

If I'm the Pac-12, I'd have to take a hard look at BYU and practically beg Gonzaga to start up a football program.

I'll have to ask my Pac-12 friends if they would be amenable to firing Larry Scott again.

[XUGRAD80]

If this actually does happen, I could see the PAC and the the Big 12 merging sometime in the future, with Gonzaga joining in everything but football. I could also see a scenario where the ACC is split up between the Big 10 and the SEC…….leaving us with 3 Mega conferences.

[paulxu]

If this actually does happen, I could see the PAC and the the Big 12 merging sometime in the future, with Gonzaga joining in everything but football. I could also see a scenario where the AAC is split up between the Big 10 and the SEC…….leaving us with 3 Mega conferences.

I've got to believe you mean the ACC...not the AAC.

[XUGRAD80]

I've got to believe you mean the ACC...not the AAC.. Correct, I fixed it.

[MHettel]

Kansas leaving the Big 12 would make no sense unless the Big 12 starts to collapse. Even though their football team sucks they make way more money than they would in the BE.

well.....maybe Kansas leaving the B12 will be the thing that actually STARTS the collapse of the Big 12. And the money for Kansas under the former B12 was largely based on the giant football revenue associated with UT and Oklahoma being involved. That money will be reduced considerably under the new B12 arrangement. So, what would they really be walking away from?

If they want to focus on BBall then the Big East is their best option. They bring ALOT of cache which would translate DIRECTLY to more TV Dollars for the BE TV deal. I would bet that the BE would actually be willing to pay the exit fee to the B12 on behalf of Kansas to get them to join. this would be a HUUUUUGE uptick for the BE, and if it happens, I would expect the Zags to follow

[xudash]

well.....maybe Kansas leaving the B12 will be the thing that actually STARTS the collapse of the Big 12. And the money for Kansas under the former B12 was largely based on the giant football revenue associated with UT and Oklahoma being involved. That money will be reduced considerably under the new B12 arrangement. So, what would they really be walking away from?

If they want to focus on BBall then the Big East is their best option. They bring ALOT of cache which would translate DIRECTLY to more TV Dollars for the BE TV deal. I would bet that the BE would actually be willing to pay the exit fee to the B12 on behalf of Kansas to get them to join. this would be a HUUUUUGE uptick for the BE, and if it happens, I would expect the Zags to follow

This.

Kansas AD department revenue approximates $70 million. That includes a media distribution amount that is about to get cut into roughly half (projected); or cut to about $20 million. I haven't had the time to look up where they are on the "food chain" with respect to department "profitability", but I imagine they are one of the programs that actually are underwater when things are all said and done - I imagine their athletic department is propped up by student fees like so many others.

I'm not saying or suggesting that Kansas should drop football. That obviously isn't happening. But what if the BE media agreement went north of $10 million per school, and what if Kansas could find a way to self-generate $10 million in media related revenue streams for football directly.

If the money becomes sort of, kind of neutral, which is the best place to be in for your basketball heritage, while making sure that football doesn't drag you to the bottom of the sea.

[MHettel]

wow. The ucla & USC deal is already approved.

I must say, this might be most secretive thing ever. Nobody heard a whisper of this until about 3 hours before it was finalized.

[xu82]

wow. The ucla & USC deal is already approved.

I must say, this might be most secretive thing ever. Nobody heard a whisper of this until about 3 hours before it was finalized.

I heard about it yesterday on Dan Patrick I think. Or possibly the day before, but it was definitely a well kept secret. A LOT of people are in a LOT of talks before a thing like that takes place.

Follow the money! Do the math, tell the future!

[waggy]

WOW. B1G will get any school they want now. You have to believe Stanford would be up there. Notre Dame of course. And they always wanted Virginia. They’ll end up at 24 programs ultimately.

[noteggs]

I heard about it yesterday on Dan Patrick I think. Or possibly the day before, but it was definitely a well kept secret. A LOT of people are in a LOT of talks before a thing like that takes place.

Follow the money! Do the math, tell the future!

Wow and wonder who’s paying who on buyouts with this short notice.

[xudash]

Oregon has left the Pac-12 for the LIV Tour

[xu82]

Oregon has left the Pac-12 for the LIV Tour

Damn you! I almost spit out my wine!!!

[paulxu]

Who would really want to be in a conference where you only get to play a team once every 3 years. Stupid.

[waggy]

For $75 mil per?

[xu82]

Who would really want to be in a conference where you only get to play a team once every 3 years. Stupid.

The answer to far too many questions is: MONEY.

[D-West & PO-Z]

If this actually does happen, I could see the PAC and the the Big 12 merging sometime in the future, with Gonzaga joining in everything but football. I could also see a scenario where the ACC is split up between the Big 10 and the SEC…….leaving us with 3 Mega conferences.

I don't know why Gonzaga would have any interest in joining a league that's entire decision making process will be made with the only sport in mind that Gonzaga doesn't have. Doesnt make any sense. It isn't like Gonzaga is hurting basketball wise being in the conference they are in. They don't need the Pac 12.

[D-West & PO-Z]

well.....maybe Kansas leaving the B12 will be the thing that actually STARTS the collapse of the Big 12. And the money for Kansas under the former B12 was largely based on the giant football revenue associated with UT and Oklahoma being involved. That money will be reduced considerably under the new B12 arrangement. So, what would they really be walking away from?

If they want to focus on BBall then the Big East is their best option. They bring ALOT of cache which would translate DIRECTLY to more TV Dollars for the BE TV deal. I would bet that the BE would actually be willing to pay the exit fee to the B12 on behalf of Kansas to get them to join. this would be a HUUUUUGE uptick for the BE, and if it happens, I would expect the Zags to follow

I agree it would be great for the BE, but even with losing OU and UT they will make a significant amount more in the Big 12 than the BE/Independent in football.

[D-West & PO-Z]

This.

Kansas AD department revenue approximates $70 million. That includes a media distribution amount that is about to get cut into roughly half (projected); or cut to about $20 million. I haven't had the time to look up where they are on the "food chain" with respect to department "profitability", but I imagine they are one of the programs that actually are underwater when things are all said and done - I imagine their athletic department is propped up by student fees like so many others.

I'm not saying or suggesting that Kansas should drop football. That obviously isn't happening. But what if the BE media agreement went north of $10 million per school, and what if Kansas could find a way to self-generate $10 million in media related revenue streams for football directly.

If the money becomes sort of, kind of neutral, which is the best place to be in for your basketball heritage, while making sure that football doesn't drag you to the bottom of the sea.

Anyone who trusts the profitability figures put out by college athletics departments is not wise.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Oregon has left the Pac-12 for the LIV Tour

Ha, that's pretty good.

[drudy23]

This is great for football fans - probably not so great for the players. Half of your games 3 times zones away can wear on you.

Is this for all sports? Because that's even more of a grind.

I'd love to see Gonzaga in the Big East, but damn, that would be a grind for that program.

I'm typing this sentence so I can say grind for a 3rd time.

[xudash]

Anyone who trusts the profitability figures put out by college athletics departments is not wise.

Couldn’t agree more. The number to focus in on, at least for me, is the amount of funding that comes from the university (i.e. student fees, etc.).

[MHettel]

When it comes to money, this is ALL about the top line. REVENUE. And of that REVENUE, its really about TV dollars. All other revenue sources just dont matter. do you think it's ticket sales or merchandise? Thats like Honda being worried about the number of lawn mowers they sold.

TV. Thats it. If a school is considering a move, they will assess the TV revenue POTENTIAL. They will compare it to the TV Revenue POTENTIAL of not making a move. They will try to forecast or anticipate any other dominoes that may fall....but in the end they have no idea where lighting will strike next.

The BIG earthquake comes after the little quakes. But you never know when the little quakes are over.

we could see a bunch of moves VERY quickly.

[xudash]

When it comes to money, this is ALL about the top line. REVENUE. And of that REVENUE, its really about TV dollars. All other revenue sources just dont matter. do you think it's ticket sales or merchandise? Thats like Honda being worried about the number of lawn mowers they sold.

TV. Thats it. If a school is considering a move, they will assess the TV revenue POTENTIAL. They will compare it to the TV Revenue POTENTIAL of not making a move. They will try to forecast or anticipate any other dominoes that may fall....but in the end they have no idea where lighting will strike next.

The BIG earthquake comes after the little quakes. But you never know when the little quakes are over.

we could see a bunch of moves VERY quickly.

Yep.

A little more precisely: they assess their existing television potential against the television potential or soon to be reality of the leaders (the SEC and the B1G). If that gap is perceived to be a serious problem, and it obviously is a serious problem in this case for them, then they act if they are provided the opportunity to do so.

On an unrelated note, I find it truly impressive that this was able to be kept under the covers in the manner it was.

[paulxu]

Rumors now starting of ND joining Big10.

[JTG]

When it comes to money, this is ALL about the top line. REVENUE. And of that REVENUE, its really about TV dollars. All other revenue sources just dont matter. do you think it's ticket sales or merchandise? Thats like Honda being worried about the number of lawn mowers they sold.

TV. Thats it. If a school is considering a move, they will assess the TV revenue POTENTIAL. They will compare it to the TV Revenue POTENTIAL of not making a move. They will try to forecast or anticipate any other dominoes that may fall....but in the end they have no idea where lighting will strike next.

The BIG earthquake comes after the little quakes. But you never know when the little quakes are over.

we could see a bunch of moves VERY quickly.

Ticket sales and merchandise DO matter at some schools. Places like Mich OSU ALA ND LSU Clemson probably take in $8 to $10 mil every home football game. But you're correct at UK Kansas IU and Duke football is nothing but a huge drain on the budget.

[JTG]

Rumors now starting of ND joining Big10.

Yes , it may finally be time for ND's hand to be forced.

[xudash]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/research/Finances/2021RES_D1-RevExpReport.pdf

[Seven Eighths]

My hope is that the PAC moves quickly to destroy the B12 before the B12 destroys the PAC. The PAC should add in Oklahoma St., Baylor, Texas Tech and Iowa St. They should also invite Gonzaga. Those 5 don’t replace the LA market but no decent program that’s available does that.

The PAC is in survival mode and needs to kill the B12 before the B12 kills them.

Kansas can then come to the BE.

[MHettel]

My hope is that the PAC moves quickly to destroy the B12 before the B12 destroys the PAC. The PAC should add in Oklahoma St., Baylor, Texas Tech and Iowa St. They should also invite Gonzaga. Those 5 don’t replace the LA market but no decent program that’s available does that.

The PAC is in survival mode and needs to kill the B12 before the B12 kills them.

Kansas can then come to the BE.

The Pac 12 is really the only conference that HAD a sensible geographical footprint. Basically, 10 of the 12 schools were in states along the West Coast with 2 each in Washington, Oregon, & Arizona and then 4 in Cali, with 2 in the North, and 2 in the South. Then they had Utah and Colorado, which are really the only other 2 Big 5 caliber football teams in the West. Pac 12 was a natural fit for them.

All the other conferences were just haphazard at best. Iowa is in the B10, and Iowa State is in the B12. Ok. Georgia in the SEC, Georgia Tech in the ACC. Ok. Penn State in the B10, Pittsburgh in the ACC. Ok. There just doesnt seem to be anything "orgainic" about how these conferences have evolved. Its like a game of Monopoly where you just buy up everything you land on.

I'm trying to reconcile. I may not have it right exactly, but as of now...(not how it is, but how it will be)

Pac12- 10 Teams (12 current -UCLA, -USC)
SEC- 16 (14 current, +Texas, +Oklahoma)
Big 10- 16 (14 current, +UCLA, +USC)
ACC- 14 (no change)
B12- 12 Teams (10 current, -TX, -OK, +BYU,+Houston,+UC,+UCF)

An then of course ND is out there.

68 current teams across the Big 5, in an uneven haphazard disasterous arrangement.

I have long believed the ideal arrangement is 4 conferences of 16 teams each. Each Conference has 2 divisions. Each Conference has a Championship Game. Winner of the Conference Championship game goes to the Playoff with a bye. Loser of the Conference Championship game will play first round against one of 4 at-large selections. Winners play winners until its over (4 games MAX for any team, 3 if you win the Conf Championship). 12 total teams in the Playoffs. GOLD. And mostly controversy free as each conference is equally represented with 2 each, and no limits from where the At Large teams come from.

But we are currently sitting at 78 teams and 5 conferences. The B10 and SEC would need to just stand pat. But the existence of ND screws that up. Maybe the ACC picks up ND and adds WVU from the B12. Who know is WVU is a good fit, that stopped mattering a LONG time ago. But the geography makes the most sense at least. So the ACC is at 16 at that point and survives mostly intact.

So now you have 10 remaining Pac 12 Teams and 11 Big 12 Teams from which you have to create a NEW conference of the most logical 16. Here Goes...Zona, Az St, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, OK St., Baylor, KState, Texas Tech, Iowa St, BYU, Houston, and......WSU.

Condolences to UC, UCF, Oregon St and TCU. Congratulations to Kansas and it's inclusion to the BE.

By the way, I'm 100% certain that whatever happens will look NOTHING like this. It makes too much sense.

[Seven Eighths]

I’m on board with that. I want Xavier and Notre Dame (to a lesser extent) to come out roses with UC coming out a turd.

[Blue Blooded-05]

i give up.

Instead of playing the long game with some long term objective in mind, it appears that there will just continue to be a series of very short term decisions that are made that make sense in complete isolation. This wont be the last move. And the next move will probably also make no sense

I agree. All of this makes my head hurt. My main take away from the USC/UCLA news is they're apparently not concerned about gas prices. Hopefully they know something the rest of us don't.

[MHettel]

I wonder if Bill Waltons head has exploded. We may never hear the phrase “conference of champions” again….

[xu82]

I wonder if Bill Waltons head has exploded. We may never hear the phrase “conference of champions” again….

I think Bill Walton’s head lives in a constant state of explosion!

[XUGRAD80]

I wonder if Bill Waltons head has exploded. We may never hear the phrase “conference of champions” again….


Wouldn’t that be great!

[waggy]

Rumors now starting of ND joining Big10.

ND on the clock apparently. I think this is going to happen.

[xudash]

ND on the clock apparently. I think this is going to happen.

It makes sense. NBC will never match or even be able to match the single school payout that will equal what the B1G and SEC schools are about to receive. You pull out a scale. On one side is tradition and the benefits of true national independence. On the other side is a mountain of cash, and, ironically, the ability to maintain USC, Michigan State, etc. on your schedule. So what if you punt five ACC schools that you had to belly up to the bar with to the curb in order to maneuver what was necessary for maintaining some semblance of competitiveness the last time around.

Also in clear view, at least in the mind, is the fact that we are truly driving towards a watershed moment this time around; not very many train stops left to go after this upheaval takes place.

It simply isn't the mid-60's any longer when there where 3 network channels and Lindsay Nelson doing post game recaps of ND on Sunday morning. This puppy - big-time college football - has been stood on its head and morphed into a full fledged business. Already finding the competition severe, Notre Dame is now faced with getting financially boat raced by two conferences that are being driven collectively by probably about 10 schools, primarily, if they don't jump on board this time.

[waggy]

An interesting thing is ND moving might actually save a few teams that don’t get in otherwise.

[xudash]

An interesting thing is ND moving might actually save a few teams that don’t get in otherwise.

I actually see it going the other way.

Which programs are truly at risk if this is about, say, getting to 2 juggernauts with 20 teams apiece:

All existing B1G teams are LUCKY and protected (i.e. programs will not get kicked out).
Ditto the SEC.

The ACC? How would you like to be the AD of Boston College, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Pitt, in particular?

If it becomes true that the B1G will also eventually pick off two more PAC 12 schools, then how would you like to be the AD of Wassou, Oregon State, Utah and maybe even Colorado and ASU?

The entire Big 12, following UT and OU's departures will be at risk.

Schools like UNC, maybe UVA, Florida State, Clumpson, Miami, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Colorado are not sweating as much (I understand I have a little overlap in here from above (e.g. Colorado; it's just too fluid right now to pin things down)).

Pretty simple math, really. If it is about getting to two massive conferences having 20 teams apiece - if that is what ESPN and Fox is willing to optimize in terms of payouts - then there are only so many chairs left on the deck.

[waggy]

I think the Big might stand pat if ND doesn’t join.

[waggy]

Reading pac12 boards more programs than just Oregon and Washington “applied to the big.

[waggy]

One post I saw made a case for Zona due to it being a retirement locale for many big alums, and it’s great playoff bowl weather. Interesting stuff.

[paulxu]

Just curious. Where does the magic 20 teams per big conference come from?

Anyway, I can see the SEC picking up the best from the ACC to get there.

Ah...the rumor mill: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543024136099880961

[xudash]

Just curious. Where does the magic 20 teams per big conference come from?

Anyway, I can see the SEC picking up the best from the ACC to get there.

Ah...the rumor mill: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543024136099880961

Paul, personally, I have seen it in a number of different places. Obviously, at this point, it probably is more speculation than anything. Nonetheless, getting to 20 teams per super conference or 24 teams per super conference seems to be the direction.

[UCGRAD4X]

As far as ND goes - I would be shocked (and disappointed) if they joined the B1G. But the USC / UCLA was a bit of a shocker, and a disappointment, so...

Also, B1G compensation is already almost twice what ND gets (43 mil to 22 mil) so $$$ hasn't seemed to be as much of an issue...yet.

Maybe the deal will be too much to pass up.

I thought previous changes have been pretty monumental. This one could top them all. Historic.

Craziness abounds.

[GoMuskies]

They really need to separate football from everything else. Iff they manage to screw up the NCAA Tournament by excluding those outside the "super conferences" (whether the Big East makes that cut or not), it would be monumental in its stupidity.

[xu82]

They really need to separate football from everything else. Iff they manage to screw up the NCAA Tournament by excluding those outside the "super conferences" (whether the Big East makes that cut or not), it would be monumental in its stupidity.

I have to believe (or at least hope) that the NCAA Tournament is too much of a cash cow to mess up. It would be almost like ESPN getting rid of Mike & Mike….the only decent thing they had left. OK, no level of stupidity is truly impossible.

[MHettel]

They really need to separate football from everything else. Iff they manage to screw up the NCAA Tournament by excluding those outside the "super conferences" (whether the Big East makes that cut or not), it would be monumental in its stupidity.

Oh, I think the NCAA Tournament is already at risk given the changes to the Transfer Rule and the NIL.

The beauty of the tournament is that the lower seeded teams always had a CHANCE to become Cinderella. And we would see it, regularly. Some team that shouldnt have made it past the first round somehow keeps moving along and sending top seeded teams home.

And if you look at the makeup of those Cinderella teams, you would often see alot of the same themes emerge. Older teams that have played together for several years in a row with at least one or two guys that have fringe NBA talent or high level overseas potential.

I'm not going to take a 1000 words to make my point. But go look at the "transfer rankings" and see how many of the "freshman of the year" or "DPOY" or "POY" from the smaller conferences have transferred to a Big 5 school. Its a shocking %. Those are the EXACT players that enabled Cinderella.

I think there is a high change that we start seeing less and less upsets in the NCAA Tourney. Thats what people are there to watch. What happens when you take away the upset. Do you lose the viewers? Is the story less compelling. Do we just end up with 3 warm up rounds until we get to the same 8 teams playing for it all every year?

[waggy]

Just read that Phil knight is going to pay notre dames acc exit fee

[STL_XUfan]

Just read that Phil knight is going to pay notre dames acc exit fee
In exchange for the big 10 taking Oregon? Otherwise, why would he care?

[xu82]

In exchange for the big 10 taking Oregon? Otherwise, why would he care?

Exactly what I was wondering. I’d have to guess that would be his only motivation.

[waggy]

Who knows? People just throw shit against the wall mostly.

[xudash]

They really need to separate football from everything else. Iff they manage to screw up the NCAA Tournament by excluding those outside the "super conferences" (whether the Big East makes that cut or not), it would be monumental in its stupidity.

I am looking for a truly defendable reason for why they will not screw it up, and I keep coming up with the television executives. If we accept that both ESPN and Fox are behind the curtain, causing all of these massive shifts in conference realignment, then it is also true that, in this case, CBS, et al will dictate the value of the television package for the NCAAT. Inclusiveness is the pixie dust of that tournament. Everyone and their mother knows and understands that.

Regarding the point about potential fewer upsets due to the transfer portal, etc., and the lack of interest that may cause overtime, I can only suggest who knows. At the very least, as long as the “tent“ is big enough to cover the kind of programs it covers now; as long as it continues to be inclusive, then there will always be the chance for upsets and the tournament will still have its overall similar feel.

Everything that we are seeing now is all about football. We have to continue to hope and believe that they are solving for football and that basketball is along for the ride. So long as basketball is along for the ride and all of this, Xavier is extremely well positioned moving forward so long as the entire environment finds it’s footing with the NIL.

[MHettel]

I am looking for a truly defendable reason for why they will not screw it up, and I keep coming up with the television executives. If we accept that both ESPN and Fox are behind the curtain, causing all of these massive shifts in conference realignment, then it is also true that, in this case, CBS, et al will dictate the value of the television package for the NCAAT. Inclusiveness is the pixie dust of that tournament. Everyone and their mother knows and understands that.

Regarding the point about potential fewer upsets due to the transfer portal, etc., and the lack of interest that may cause overtime, I can only suggest who knows. At the very least, as long as the “tent“ is big enough to cover the kind of programs it covers now; as long as it continues to be inclusive, then there will always be the chance for upsets and the tournament will still have its overall similar feel.

Everything that we are seeing now is all about football. We have to continue to hope and believe that they are solving for football and that basketball is along for the ride. So long as basketball is along for the ride and all of this, Xavier is extremely well positioned moving forward so long as the entire environment finds it’s footing with the NIL.

What I really like about this is that we will literally get our answer to these questions over the next couple years. I think the cinderellas will be VERY few and far between. Much less frequent than in the past. And we will get to see.

[xudash]

What I really like about this is that we will literally get our answer to these questions over the next couple years. I think the cinderellas will be VERY few and far between. Much less frequent than in the past. And we will get to see.

Agree.

I believe it is somewhere between reasonably and highly likely that our position will improve. Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC destabilized the “wall“ that protects some of the lesser football programs like BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, etc. The Big Ten‘s “acquisition” of USC and UCLA has virtually knocked it down.

The following is a direct quote from a fan on the Syracuse message board:

I'm fine if we aren't part of the imminent super conference(s) for football. I think the end game is football breaking away from the NCAA and the overall structure of basketball remaining the same. Just some weird conference alignment because of what will happen with football.

We will never compete at the highest level in football. Play in whatever the second tier ends up being there and go back to the Big East for everything else. The basketball program would be fine long term and the football program can compete with smaller state and private schools if that is how things end up.

We have discussed on many occasions here what the “candidate pool“ might look like for expansion candidates for the Big East. Last year it was a combination of considering Gonzaga, not dipping into the mid-Major pool, and having none of these P5 schools available for consideration. Well, that certainly could be changing now. Some of these schools, particularly the old BE members, may very well come back into doable view for all of this.

It will still take some time to sort out, but our conference has the luxury of time for now. We certainly do not have to do anything drastic.

One last thing: we could all look back very easily in even less than five years and see what a mistake it was for Gonzaga not to join the Big East when it appeared to have an opportunity to do so.

[XUBison]

Agree.

I believe it is somewhere between reasonably and highly likely that our position will improve. Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC destabilized the “wall“ that protects some of the lesser football programs like BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, etc. The Big Ten‘s “acquisition” of USC and UCLA has virtually knocked it down.

The following is a direct quote from a fan on the Syracuse message board:

I'm fine if we aren't part of the imminent super conference(s) for football. I think the end game is football breaking away from the NCAA and the overall structure of basketball remaining the same. Just some weird conference alignment because of what will happen with football.

We will never compete at the highest level in football. Play in whatever the second tier ends up being there and go back to the Big East for everything else. The basketball program would be fine long term and the football program can compete with smaller state and private schools if that is how things end up.

We have discussed on many occasions here what the “candidate pool“ might look like for expansion candidates for the Big East. Last year it was a combination of considering Gonzaga, not dipping into the mid-Major pool, and having none of these P5 schools available for consideration. Well, that certainly could be changing now. Some of these schools, particularly the old BE members, may very well come back into doable view for all of this.

It will still take some time to sort out, but our conference has the luxury of time for now. We certainly do not have to do anything drastic.

One last thing: we could all look back very easily in even less than five years and see what a mistake it was for Gonzaga not to join the Big East when it appeared to have an opportunity to do so.

Oh, those UD losers on HLOH will not like this (spot on) assessment.

[waggy]

You make a great point dash. If a school can’t be relevant in football, it needs to at least be relevant in basketball. And the BE is going to be the conference that offers that chance.

[paulxu]

Paul, personally, I have seen it in a number of different places. Obviously, at this point, it probably is more speculation than anything. Nonetheless, getting to 20 teams per super conference or 24 teams per super conference seems to be the direction.

Dash, I agree. I see it in places..."20 team super conference" but so far, no rational for 20. Why not 24? Or 30?
Is it a schedule situation? The ACC is talking 3-5-5, playing 3 teams every year, and the other 10 on a rotating 5 one year, 5 the next.

[xudash]

Dash, I agree. I see it in places..."20 team super conference" but so far, no rational for 20. Why not 24? Or 30?
Is it a schedule situation? The ACC is talking 3-5-5, playing 3 teams every year, and the other 10 on a rotating 5 one year, 5 the next.

Paul, it is a MONEY situation, pure and simple. More to the point, it is about what optimizes a per school payout via a media agreement by virtue of the number and mix of schools comprising the new super conferences. The B1G adds USC and UCLA? Fine. The television executives are salivating over that one, as are the presidents and AD's of the schools involved. They did the same when the SEC picked off Texas and the Sooners. So now it is about the next "layer." We're back to that very popular and probably worn out phrase: WHO MOVES THE NEEDLE?

Which programs may do that for the B1G? Maybe Washington and Oregon. Then perhaps they start looking towards the Atlantic and south: UNC and ? Look where I am with this paragraph - I'm already running out of obvious candidates - beyond Notre Dame, and who knows what they're thinking right now - that would be accretive to any new monster mash media agreement. I'm running out of candidates because of the AAU thingy, and because I don't think they would want a Clemson or Florida State anyway. Remember the research dollars that come with the B1G's AAU status. It's about football, but it's not only about football in their case.

How about this: are the SEC and B1G powers even talking very quietly with one another at this point (i.e. let's cooperate while we divy up the world) or are they still attempting to grind through their territorial acquisitions on their own? The answer to that would be revealing. What if they've already locked into defining what the extent of the club will be - what if they've both agreed that there are only 40 programs in the country that make sense for optimizing media agreements and so they quietly agree to stop there. BTW, they wouldn't be deciding on the "40" - the television executives would be very much involved in letting them know what is truly marketable and what begins to look like a dead cat bounce when it comes to considering expansion candidates.

Beyond all that is the "political" climate that comes with shutting out a layer of schools that presently pretend like they have a shot at the playoff because they play in a P5 conference. There are 125 Division 1 FCS football teams. Are these two battleship conferences going to take the club down to a total of 40 relevant programs that are allowed to compete for that? They won't need to since their competitive advantage will be so substantial.

This is exactly why programs like BC, Syracuse, Iowa State, Washington State, Wake Forest, etc. are soiling themselves right now. They KNOW they're poorly positioned. We're talking about a current power structure that includes 64 teams plus ND in the P5 (give or take one; I've lost count and I don't want to research it). The simple point is that the two power conferences are finally saying enough is enough. They want to boil it down to 40'ish when it comes to a conference media agreement.

So, the playoff setup might stay the same or even expand. But imagine being a D1A program that operates outside of this payday arrangement competing against members of the club. Look at UC. If it doesn't make the cut - and I expect it to not make the cut - it can still play football with a juicy student fee allocation to athletics, make some media money, hold onto Luke Fickell or someone like him as long as it can, and kind of look the part. That is until it ends up playing a new era Ohio State or Alabama and finds itself on the gallant end of 30+ point loss.

The USC / UCLA news has opened the proverbial floodgates.

[xudash]

Oh, those UD losers on HLOH will not like this (spot on) assessment.

Bison, thankfully for VD, they have their well honed delusion to fall back on.

I took a look at the tweet that had the best college teams by state mapped out in a map if the U.S. Obviously, Xavier was in the Ohio slot. Then I looked at some of the comments. There were a few VD fans that took exception to X being the top team in Ohio. They can be good for a laugh.

[XUBison]

Paul, it is a MONEY situation, pure and simple. More to the point, it is about what optimizes a per school payout via a media agreement by virtue of the number and mix of schools comprising the new super conferences. The B1G adds USC and UCLA? Fine. The television executives are salivating over that one, as are the presidents and AD's of the schools involved. They did the same when the SEC picked off Texas and the Sooners. So now it is about the next "layer." We're back to that very popular and probably worn out phrase: WHO MOVES THE NEEDLE?

Which programs may do that for the B1G? Maybe Washington and Oregon. Then perhaps they start looking towards the Atlantic and south: UNC and ? Look where I am with this paragraph - I'm already running out of obvious candidates - beyond Notre Dame, and who knows what they're thinking right now - that would be accretive to any new monster mash media agreement. I'm running out of candidates because of the AAU thingy, and because I don't think they would want a Clemson or Florida State anyway. Remember the research dollars that come with the B1G's AAU status. It's about football, but it's not only about football in their case.

How about this: are the SEC and B1G powers even talking very quietly with one another at this point (i.e. let's cooperate while we divy up the world) or are they still attempting to grind through their territorial acquisitions on their own? The answer to that would be revealing. What if they've already locked into defining what the extent of the club will be - what if they've both agreed that there are only 40 programs in the country that make sense for optimizing media agreements and so they quietly agree to stop there. BTW, they wouldn't be deciding on the "40" - the television executives would be very much involved in letting them know what is truly marketable and what begins to look like a dead cat bounce when it comes to considering expansion candidates.

Beyond all that is the "political" climate that comes with shutting out a layer of schools that presently pretend like they have a shot at the playoff because they play in a P5 conference. There are 125 Division 1 FCS football teams. Are these two battleship conferences going to take the club down to a total of 40 relevant programs that are allowed to compete for that? They won't need to since their competitive advantage will be so substantial.

This is exactly why programs like BC, Syracuse, Iowa State, Washington State, Wake Forest, etc. are soiling themselves right now. They KNOW they're poorly positioned. We're talking about a current power structure that includes 64 teams plus ND in the P5 (give or take one; I've lost count and I don't want to research it). The simple point is that the two power conferences are finally saying enough is enough. They want to boil it down to 40'ish when it comes to a conference media agreement.

So, the playoff setup might stay the same or even expand. But imagine being a D1A program that operates outside of this payday arrangement competing against members of the club. Look at UC. If it doesn't make the cut - and I expect it to not make the cut - it can still play football with a juicy student fee allocation to athletics, make some media money, hold onto Luke Fickell or someone like him as long as it can, and kind of look the part. That is until it ends up playing a new era Ohio State or Alabama and finds itself on the gallant end of 30+ point loss.

The USC / UCLA news has opened the proverbial floodgates.

It is the fact the end game remains so close to the chest that is concerning. The only need for the continued secrecy is because they know they’re taking it to a place many people will not like.

Or, the worse, and probably more likely scenario, is there is no end game. There may simply be a feedback loop in which every school is uncertain of what’s going to happen, and so they are all acting out of a paranoid need to protect their respective interests, believing they will otherwise be left out of the (non-existent) master plan.

[paulxu]

Strangely, all this talk reminds me of why I liked 4 conferences of 16 teams, a long time ago.
It seem that it offered the best of all possibilities.
1 - it got rid of some of the weaker schools like Wake and Vandy
2 - it preserved some semblance of geography and natural/historic rivalries
3 - it addressed time zones to some extent
4 - it seemed to be a natural in creating a postseason playoff/championship route (like the 32 team NFL does)
5 - it seemed built for the networks to be happy

I'm sure the powers to be know what they are doing with 20. Wonder how long before the dust settles.

[JTG]

If this is indeed, all about football and 2 20 team mega conferences, which most agree it is, how does the BIG reconcile IU, Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern as one of the 40 best ? Indiana especially, loss wise, the worst school in major college football history. Rutgers, Maryland, 2 worthless throw ins, and lowly Northwestern. Those schools do not deserve a $100 million a year windfall. What about the SEC with Vandy and UK Ms St ? These folks should be positioned ahead of the Clemsons, FSU, Miami, Oregon, Baylor, Washingtons ? There is already talk in some circles of teams being booted from the BIG.Namely Minn and Purdue, but both have more illustrious football heritage than the bottom feeders mentioned above. The stated logic is that would be done to make room for more worth football institutions. I sure no one would miss IU, UK, Rutgers, Md or Vandy on Sat afternoons in the fall. I

[bjf123]

It is all about the money, but be careful what you wish for. I saw a story online yesterday about Apple contacting the BIG about media rights right after USC and UCLA joining was announced. Apple can certainly outbid any network if they really want to. Imagine the outcry if you’ll need an Apple TV or Apple TV+ subscription to watch any BIG or SEC games. Apple did just that with MLS starting next season.


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[X-band '01]

Apple is already dipping a toe in the water with a Friday Night MLB package where they get exclusive rights to baseball games, even over local networks (i.e. Bally Sports Ohio). Peacock (NBC streaming) also started doing a Sunday morning MLB game this season.

[bjf123]

Apple is already dipping a toe in the water with a Friday Night MLB package where they get exclusive rights to baseball games, even over local networks (i.e. Bally Sports Ohio). Peacock (NBC streaming) also started doing a Sunday morning MLB game this season.

Rumor is they’ll get NFL Sunday Ticket when DirecTV’s contract ends. Maybe 2024? They have enough cash on hand to pretty much do whatever they want.


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[xudash]

If this is indeed, all about football and 2 20 team mega conferences, which most agree it is, how does the BIG reconcile IU, Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern as one of the 40 best ? Indiana especially, loss wise, the worst school in major college football history. Rutgers, Maryland, 2 worthless throw ins, and lowly Northwestern. Those schools do not deserve a $100 million a year windfall. What about the SEC with Vandy and UK Ms St ? These folks should be positioned ahead of the Clemsons, FSU, Miami, Oregon, Baylor, Washingtons ? There is already talk in some circles of teams being booted from the BIG.Namely Minn and Purdue, but both have more illustrious football heritage than the bottom feeders mentioned above. The stated logic is that would be done to make room for more worth football institutions. I sure no one would miss IU, UK, Rutgers, Md or Vandy on Sat afternoons in the fall. I

Great point. The reality is that they do not have to reconcile anything. That is the one, crazy thing about this entire process in terms of it not being 100% market driven: if you are already in, you will not be kicked out. That is regardless of your value. Collegiality and all that!

EDIT: You could argue, as one abstract example, that a home game involving UC and a P5 school would probably do no better than Northwestern playing another major program in Chicago at home. The point is, at the margin, what is the difference in media value of the lower schools once you dip below the top, say, 20 programs.

[paulxu]

It is all about the money, but be careful what you wish for. I saw a story online yesterday about Apple contacting the BIG about media rights right after USC and UCLA joining was announced. Apple can certainly outbid any network if they really want to. Imagine the outcry if you’ll need an Apple TV or Apple TV+ subscription to watch any BIG or SEC games. Apple did just that with MLS starting next season.


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I'm OK unless they start screwing with NCAAM basketball.

[bjf123]

I'm OK unless they start screwing with NCAAM basketball.

Never say never! [emoji6]


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[waggy]

Read on a Michigan board that’s it’s going to be ND and Stanford to the B1G. Poster doesn’t seem super connected though. Makes the most sense though, once those are in the barn they can get anyone else at half price for an introductory period.

[Seven Eighths]

Read on a Michigan board that’s it’s going to be ND and Stanford to the B1G. Poster doesn’t seem super connected though. Makes the most sense though, once those are in the barn they can get anyone else at half price for an introductory period.

If ND joins the Big 10, the ACC should add WVU and Houston. The ACC has to be proactive in hopes of keeping a Big 4 instead of a Big 2.

[STL_XUfan]

Rumor is they’ll get NFL Sunday Ticket when DirecTV’s contract ends. Maybe 2024? They have enough cash on hand to pretty much do whatever they want.


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They just bought up the MLS rights too.

[STL_XUfan]

Not that it would ever happen, but I think promotion and relegation would be interesting in College football. Create ten 13 team divisions with each team playing all of the members of their division once. At the end of the year the Bottom 3 of each division move down and the top 3 of the division below will move up. Sure the usual suspects will continue to dominate, but it would add a lot more intrigue to late season games of team out of the national title running.

Now it will never happen, cause there is no way that the schools would agree on how to rank everyone in year one.

[xudash]

If ND joins the Big 10, the ACC should add WVU and Houston. The ACC has to be proactive in hopes of keeping a Big 4 instead of a Big 2.

I think the idea is that there will be no Big 4; there will only be a Big 2. More to the point, there will only be a Big 2 with respect to massive media payouts for the schools in those two conferences. Schools outside of those conferences can and will still play football. They'll just be doing that with whatever lessor media agreements they can stitch together, and they'll most likely all be looking at student fees support for their athletic departments.

Think about that last statement for a moment. Now think about it as you consider the likes of Wake Forest, Boston College, Baylor, TCU and even Syracuse - all private and all with relatively small student bodies (i.e. around < 20k). It will be hard for those schools to generate the kind of student fees needed.

[Seven Eighths]

I think the idea is that there will be no Big 4; there will only be a Big 2. More to the point, there will only be a Big 2 with respect to massive media payouts for the schools in those two conferences. Schools outside of those conferences can and will still play football. They'll just be doing that with whatever lessor media agreements they can stitch together, and they'll most likely all be looking at student fees support for their athletic departments.

Think about that last statement for a moment. Now think about it as you consider the likes of Wake Forest, Boston College, Baylor, TCU and even Syracuse - all private and all with relatively small student bodies (i.e. around < 20k). It will be hard for those schools to generate the kind of student fees needed.

While many/most might agree that the Big 2 is inevitable, I don’t see the ACC just sitting back and letting it happen. They will look to add in order to stay as relevant as possible. It might be a fool’s errand in the end but I don’t think the ACC will just sit tight.

So, I see them looking to add WVU and Houston. Not great additions but solid enough to (in their minds) stave off the inevitable.

[JTG]

If it is indeed a Mega 2, then the SEC will grab FSU, Clemson and Miami. The BIG will get ND and Stanford and look for #s 19 & 20. I've heard it speculated ND expressed interest in Standford as a like minded school and frequent opponent. But who knows. If I were the ACC I'd offer ND the moon just to save the conference, because I think schools will find a way out of their long term 2036 agreement. I still think some of the crappy football schools need to be shipped off. Let the ACC have IU, MD, Rutgers and Northwestern, then the BIG takes Pitt Clemson and BC. The SEC gets FSU and Miami. Also the ACC gets Army & Navy.

[bjf123]

This would never happen, but its an interesting idea.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-football-realignment-big-ten-sec-relegation-promotion-11656900001?mod=hp_listb_pos1

In case that link doesn’t work.

https://flip.it/_9_SCL Happy Birthday, America. The British Have a Way to Save College Football


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[xudash]

While many/most might agree that the Big 2 is inevitable, I don’t see the ACC just sitting back and letting it happen. They will look to add in order to stay as relevant as possible. It might be a fool’s errand in the end but I don’t think the ACC will just sit tight.

So, I see them looking to add WVU and Houston. Not great additions but solid enough to (in their minds) stave off the inevitable.

I don't disagree with you at all. I agree the ACC, Big 12 and Pac (n) will do whatever they can to survive. But whatever they do will not matter in the near to long run. They have no answer for approx. $100 million per school, which is what the two goliaths are looking at when the dust settles.

JTG, even if the ACC offers Notre Dame the moon, they have the B1G next door offering them Saturn.

Again, these other conferences are in trouble. Can at least two of them survive in some form? Sure. And it remains to be seen if the playoff for a "national" championship will ultimately involve the "new 40" or the 125 that technically have access to it now. If the playoff system is still "inclusive" such that the current roster of FBS schools still have a crack at it, and if it expands to 8 teams from 4, then some of these schools can continue to pretend or do a little more than just pretend to play football at this level.

How is this for irony: Clifton Community College has always had to scratch and claw, working its way up to where it is now. Its athletic department is stressed - that department will continue to rely on upwards of possibly $20 million per year in student fees support, even after its media agreement is improved from its flaky $7 million to what was expected to be $20 million prior to the USC/UCLA to B1G bombshell announcement. But at least it has a base of 40,000+ students to draw fees from.

Compare that to TCU, which has less than 12,000 students (I believe). And TCU has had the luxury of enjoying a much better media agreement for the last number of years. As we know, the Horned Frogs - what a remarkably stupid nickname - aren't alone; BC, Wake and Baylor, and Syracuse are right there with them, sweating bullets.

UC's fans are probably mostly still looking up in all this, though I continue to believe they don't have a prayer in hell of making it into the SEC or B1G. Ohio State will not allow them into the B1G, just as we won't allow Dayton in the Big East. UC's only hope is that the SEC sees some strategic value in planting its flag in Ohio under Ohio State's nose, but I wouldn't stay up too late waiting for that to happen.

[paulxu]

Dash...wait! I sort of like the Horned Frogs moniker.

[xudash]

Dash...wait! I sort of like the Horned Frogs moniker.

I'll take it back for you, Paul. So long as the next first round at Dana's is on .... me!

[xu82]

I'll take it back for you, Paul. So long as the next first round at Dana's is on .... me!

I want an invite! Do I need a reservation?

[xudash]

I want an invite! Do I need a reservation?

Hell, no!

You only need to remember the secret password phrase: I want to get Moody with a Hudy. Belt that out at the entrance to Dana‘s and you will be in like Flynn.

[paulxu]

I'll take it back for you, Paul. So long as the next first round at Dana's is on .... me!

No worries. I've got the next one.

[xudash]

Interesting perspective:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/07/02/the_slow-motion_suicide_of_college_football_840502.html

[paulxu]

More reasons to have gone to 4 16 team conferences if you wanted to be like the NFL.

[paulxu]

This would take them to 20, although NC State instead of Virginia makes more sense.

https://www.whiskeyriff.com/2022/07/07/clemson-florida-state-unc-and-virginia-are-reportedly-looking-to-join-the-sec/