Conference carousel to start spinning again?

[xudash]

Admittedly I haven't been keeping up on all the Penn State stuff.
I think they ought to put everyone responsible for leaving Sandusky around to molest kids in jail. I'd do the same to the biships who kept shuffling the priests around.

But what good does the death penalty do? Seems like it punishes the kids and program that had nothing to do with the criminal acts.

If the acts had been athletic related, some advantage with recruits/players, bootsters giving cash to players, yady, yady...ok, then punish the program for lack of institutional control.

But these were criminal acts that had nothing to do with the team/players. Just turn the law loose on the criminals. (and tear down the statue)

And your very reasonable approach to the matter was brought up today on television.

On the flip side, an interesting point was made about what it might feel like, showing up for the first game this season, assuming there is no death penalty. Specifically, how do you tailgate, go to the game and have a nice time?

This is where this is a no-win situation, because there is no absolute right thing to do, as you are helping to point out. So what do they do if they're allowed to play - have everyone stand before they crank it up against the Univ. of Buffalo in the first game (or which ever patsy has been scheduled) and say a prayer, then get on with it?

I like your idea of not punishing good people who had nothing to do with any of this sh!t, but they still may get thrown out with the baby if it comes down to a determined lack of institutional control, with the program in Happy Valley geting torched.

[LA Muskie]

Football is all that matters in this.
For TV, true. But I don't see the networks falling over themselves for Boise State and SDSU (west coast schools, no less), even if they are upgrades. So it doesn't make much of a difference.

For the casual fan, the Big East means basketball. And there is no way in hell that the loss of SU, Pitt and WVU are even remotely eclipsed by the additions of Temple, Houston, SMU or...wait for it...Central Florida.

[GoMuskies]

I didn't say the Big East was getting good...just better. And I wasn't talking about WV obviously.

[paulxu]

On the flip side, an interesting point was made about what it might feel like, showing up for the first game this season, assuming there is no death penalty. Specifically, how do you tailgate, go to the game and have a nice time?

I think it would be OK if you've removed all the people involved. I have no idea if the president, AD and the other guy who knew about it with Paterno are still there. Guess i'm assuming their gone, but maybe they are still in place. I should look that up.

But if they're gone, and they scrub any evidence of Paterno off the campus, I think things would be OK. It might be like going to church if they got rid of the priests and bishops who covered it up. Still be OK to go to church.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyCBS 7h

Delany seeking authority to fire coaches; B1G could consider removing Penn State from league, The Chronicle reports http://bit.ly/P6cttK




"Big 10 not ruling out BOOTING Penn State"

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2012/7/19/3169531/penn-state-big-ten-scandal-ncaa-jim-delany

[paulxu]

Well, that would be one hell of a death penalty.
On the other hand, they could join the BigLeast, and ND could take their place.

[paulxu]

Pitt joins Syracuse in ACC in 2013.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Here's a new twist. Apparently the deal between the Big 12 and the SEC for their Champions Bowl requires the Big 12 to have a Conference Title Game. That would mean the Big 12 would have to have at least 12 teams by 2014. The Baylor 247 guy is reporting this

So basically keep this thread around. Even if nothing happens for 2013, there will be plenty of action for 2014 and beyond..

---

College Football reacts to Swofford's secret meeting with the Clemson BOT

http://tuxedoyoda.blogspot.com/2012/07/college-football-reacts-to-news-of.html

---

[GoMuskies]

If that's true, you can be sure that, unless it is independents Notre Dame and BYU, the Big 12's two adds will be landscape-changing. If they take Louisville from the Big East, it will be a huge hit for the Big East. If they take FSU and Clem(p)son from the ACC, it will be devastating for the ACC. Either way, I would expect the Big 12's move would cause more dominos to fall.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

If that's true, you can be sure that, unless it is independents Notre Dame and BYU, the Big 12's two adds will be landscape-changing. If they take Louisville from the Big East, it will be a huge hit for the Big East. If they take FSU and Clem(p)son from the ACC, it will be devastating for the ACC. Either way, I would expect the Big 12's move would cause more dominos to fall.

Just to add to this, the SEC is also looking into expansion. Who knows what the B1G is thinking after this Penn State debacle but apparently they are at least investigating the possibility of booting Penn State.

There's a lot of good 'free agents' out there practically begging for an invite from the B1G, Big 12, and SEC:

Maryland
VT
NC State
GT
Miami
FSU
Clemson
Louisville

In addition to what GoMuskies said, many leaders in the SEC have already indicated they want the four team playoff comprised of just the four big conference championship title winners. I would assume when the Big 12 gets 12, they will push for the same thing. If this does go into fruition at some point(which I'm not sure it will), you can bet ND/BYU and every other major D1 team in the country will try to join one of the big conferences

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Big 10 has contacted rutgers, UVA and nd about joining the conference according to many twitter expansion people. One would have to think that Delaney is seriously contemplating giving psu the boot

[Masterofreality]

And, again....

Meanwhile, no one wants SucKS!


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, Borecat honks!

[paulxu]

In addition to what GoMuskies said, many leaders in the SEC have already indicated they want the four team playoff comprised of just the four big conference championship title winners. I would assume when the Big 12 gets 12, they will push for the same thing. If this does go into fruition at some point(which I'm not sure it will), you can bet ND/BYU and every other major D1 team in the country will try to join one of the big conferences

If you look at the last dozen years, there were 6 major football leagues with 72 (I think) teams in them, that went through the BCS nonsense at the end of the year to decide a national championship. Before that it was even more wide open.

So now you get the re-shuffle with some wanting 4 major leagues with the new playoff deciding the national championship.

It would seem that it will eventually sort out to that; either 4-16 team ones, or maybe some 16's and some 14's.

The bottom line is that the 72 get shuffled to some smaller number and teams like UC will be left on the outside looking in. Maybe they'll be a second tier of division 1 that organizes to have a championship, just like the third tier does now.

[xudash]

I think Swofford is putting his best act on about this, since he doesn't have much room to maneuver:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8189715/john-swofford-says-acc-focus-totally-14-schools

I think Miami is going to get hit hard.

I don't get that a tie-in to the Orange Bowl automatically saves the ACC's arse. It should be pretty clear that the ACC is back in trouble if one or a couple of the Big4 get hungry to expand again. It would seem that the Big XII is the most likely to strike first, especially if they do have to get to a play-off game in order to make their new bowl deal with the SEC work.

Imagine an Orange Bowl every year with Notre Dame, regardless of record (but never good enough for the NC play-off anyway) versus an ACC team. Way to nail it Orange Bowl Committee.

[GoMuskies]

Notre Dame, by the way, is 2-5 against Big East opponents in the last four years. 0-4 if you don't count Pitt, who will soon be a member of the ACC.

Just another example of on-field performance being essentially meaningless in conference realignment matters.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Starting 2015-2026



Kristi Dosh ‏@SportsBizMiss
As experts predicted, ESPN will pay $80m/year for the Champions Bowl per SBD this morning. Same money as Rose Bowl

*But the rumor is the Big 12 needs a championship game by 2015 for this to take effect*

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

"SEC demands Big 12 expansion by 2014"

http://leatherhelmetblog.com/2012-articles/july/sec-demands-big-12-expansion-by-2014.html


As we reported from another source a few days ago, the agreement between Big 12 and SEC for the Champions Bowl mandates that Big 12 have a conference championship game. NCAA rules require that a conference have a minimum of 12 member before a championship game may be staged.

[XUglow]

"SEC demands Big 12 expansion by 2014"

http://leatherhelmetblog.com/2012-articles/july/sec-demands-big-12-expansion-by-2014.html

Is there any irony that the SEC stole 2 teams from the Big 12, and now they demand that they expand back to 12?

[xudash]

"SEC demands Big 12 expansion by 2014"

http://leatherhelmetblog.com/2012-articles/july/sec-demands-big-12-expansion-by-2014.html

Well, let's play this out.

I think we all agreed that this deal between the SEC and the Big XII legitimized and saved the Big XII. The conference went from near implosion to being recognized as one of the Big4 within a 12 month period, with enough momentum that rumors began flying about ACC teams leaving for the Big XII.

The SEC is looking for balance. It has a playoff game; it wants its counterpart to have the same. So this championship game requirement is real and it isn't going away. Too bad for those "lazy" Big XII programs (hey Texas, I'm calling you out) who wanted an easier path to the 4 team playoff system.

The ACC is about to get its teeth kicked in, and that will lead to an amputation in the BE.

[xudash]

Is there any irony that the SEC stole 2 teams from the Big 12, and now they demand that they expand back to 12?

Ha! Great point. Hadn't thought about that one.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Well, let's play this out.

I think we all agreed that this deal between the SEC and the Big XII legitimized and saved the Big XII. The conference went from near implosion to being recognized as one of the Big4 within a 12 month period, with enough momentum that rumors began flying about ACC teams leaving for the Big XII.

The SEC is looking for balance. It has a playoff game; it wants its counterpart to have the same. So this championship game requirement is real and it isn't going away. Too bad for those "lazy" Big XII programs (hey Texas, I'm calling you out) who wanted an easier path to the 4 team playoff system.

The ACC is about to get its teeth kicked in, and that will lead to an amputation in the BE.

Everything I've read is that FSU has basically agreed to come on board in 2014(Rumors in the blogosphere). The question would be that 2nd team(allegedly)

The ripple effect would be huge if/when FSU leaves.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

"Conference expansion decimated the Big East, and more changes are ahead"


“It’s all very sad because this is probably the beginning of the death knell for the Big East,” says former Syracuse quarterback Don McPherson, who serves as the color analyst on Big East games for SportsNet New York.


Other dominoes may fall next offseason and the league could be raided yet again. The ACC has reportedly shown strong interest in Rutgers and the New York metro TV market it would bring. And it could have just as easily been Louisville leaving for the Big 12 instead of West Virginia earlier this year. It has been rumored that the Cards will be the Big 12’s next target. If either of those current linchpins leaves, Boise State or SDSU could get cold feet, especially with the lure of automatic qualification no longer on the table for 2014. Would Navy’s expected entry into the Big East in 2015 be enough to withstand such an avalanche?


In medical terms, the Big East is a patient that has undergone numerous surgeries in a short period of time and is now resting in serious but stable condition. But it is extremely weak, and any sudden malady could prove fatal.

“I think the league was a bit shortsighted all along on this,” McPherson says. “They should have made some very high-level partners to secure a footprint in the Northeast early on. They should have made bold moves to bring Boston College back in and aggressively gone after Penn State and Maryland. But they were reactive and not proactive. As a result, the lack of an AQ in 2014 probably kills the Big East.”

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-07-30/big-east-struggle-conference-expansion-syracuse-pitt-west-virginia

[xudash]

"Conference expansion decimated the Big East, and more changes are ahead"







http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-07-30/big-east-struggle-conference-expansion-syracuse-pitt-west-virginia

Common sense would leave anyone to agree with all this. The hat is sitting there, but there are no rabbits left to pull out of it.

[muskienick]

I simply love all these articles predicting the imminent demise of the Big East (which is already on life support). Even if U of L doesn't get an invite from the Big 12 (with another ACC school besides FSU going to the Big 12), the ACC will likely come calling for Rutgers and one other of the few remaining decent Big East non-western schools (UConn or Louisville since both have passable FB programs and excellent BB programs).

This is almost as much fun as seeing the A-10 positioning itself to challenge annually for a place among the Big Six in college basketball.

[GoMuskies]

Big East full members may get $14 million/year from NBC next year. That's very close to ACC money. More importantly, ESPN woud have more room for A-10 games if they lost Big East basketball (assuming the Pac-10 doesn't slide into those slots).

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/big-east-football-heading-direction-conference-a-commissioner-backbone-games-national-tv-article-1.1127668?pgno=1

[Masterofreality]

Impressive that a team that was 7-6 last year is portrayed as "rapidly rising" and the league favorite over a rogues gallery.

Oh, memo to Bernie McGlade. NBC is "desperate for sports inventory". I hope that you are making some calls to 30 Rock now that the A-10 has shored up its membership.

[xudash]

Big East full members may get $14 million/year from NBC next year. That's very close to ACC money. More importantly, ESPN woud have more room for A-10 games if they lost Big East basketball (assuming the Pac-10 doesn't slide into those slots).

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/big-east-football-heading-direction-conference-a-commissioner-backbone-games-national-tv-article-1.1127668?pgno=1

Hey, what do you know - - another rabbit!

Actually, with the Big XII still needing two more teams to get to a conference playoff format, I can't see how such a television agreement could hold up, especially if Rutgers then becomes targeted by the ACC.

[JTG]

Impressive that a team that was 7-6 last year is portrayed as "rapidly rising" and the league favorite over a rogues gallery.

Oh, memo to Bernie McGlade. NBC is "desperate for sports inventory". I hope that you are making some calls to 30 Rock now that the A-10 has shored up its membership.

NBC is a shit cable network that is not carried by many cable systems. Being on NBC CABLE is not much better than an internet channel.

[GoMuskies]

NBC is a shit cable network that is not carried by many cable systems. Being on NBC CABLE is not much better than an internet channel.

As I understand the speculation, there would be one or two games a week on "real" NBC, possibly bracketing NBC's Notre Dame coverage. That alone would make a deal a coup for the Big East.

[Masterofreality]

NBC is a shit cable network that is not carried by many cable systems. Being on NBC CABLE is not much better than an internet channel.

Uh, it's carried by about 50 times as many systems as CBSCCCPSportsnetwork- which the A-10 presently is occsasionally, very occasionally, shown on and allegedly has a "contract" with. Oh, they also seem to have a major league sport that is played on ice on that network too.

NBC Sports Network would be a huge step up.

[JTG]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Ratings for that network are nearly non-existant. 5 times as many people would see a game on the least of the espn channels. People channel surfing are more likely to stop on espn or fox. NBC is usually buried, where you cant find it. I travel weekly for business and seldom does the tv in the hotel have NBC Sports. I agree CBS Sports isn't much better, but until NBC is more widely accepted, it is the Siberia of cable.

[GoMuskies]

The Big East hired a CBS Sports executive as its new commish.

[SM#24]

I travel weekly for business and seldom does the tv in the hotel have NBC Sports. I agree CBS Sports isn't much better, but until NBC is more widely accepted, it is the Siberia of cable.
They're both in Siberia, NBCSN is just in a little bigger city.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

The Big East hired a CBS Sports executive as its new commish.

If the Big East gets a better TV deal than the ACC, I think we'll see a lot quicker movement by teams like FSU, VT, and maybe others to get into the Big12/SEC. Particularly FSU. Think about this:

Assuming the Big East does, in fact, get a better TV deal than the ACC, FSU will be behind Florida, UCF, and South Florida in TV revenue. That can't sit well in Tallahassee.

[GoMuskies]

I can't imagine the Big East getting a better deal than the ACC. But it might be WAY too close for the ACC's comfort.

[outsideobserver11]

It'd be a pretty funny screw you to Syracuse and Pitt for jumping ship to the ACC. the Big East is taking an interesting approach here with there top 3 guys in command being big media based guys.

[Masterofreality]

It'd be a pretty funny screw you to Syracuse and Pitt for jumping ship to the ACC. the Big East is taking an interesting approach here with there top 3 guys in command being big media based guys.

Whatever. Their football product still sucks.

[UCGRAD4X]

Whatever. Their football product still sucks.

Yes. Yes it does.

[X-band '01]

Whatever. Their football product still sucks.

Can you be more specific - Big East? ACC?

[GoMuskies]

Can you be more specific - Big East? ACC?

Neither is great, that's for sure. Will certainly help the Big East to trade Syracuse and Pitt for Boise, soon, though.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Remember the news about the SEC's requirements that the Big12 go to 12 teams(Conference championship game) for the champions bowl?

Big 12 Conference ‏@Big12Conference
#Big12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby says revenue from Champions Bowl could be 2.5 times more than expected.

Hello expansion. No president, AD, or conference commissioner in their right mind would turn that down to stay at 10 teams...Mind you the Champions Bowl starts in 2014

[xudash]

F O L L O W T H E M O N E Y

I was at a dinner this evening that had a speaker that simply knows what’s going on. He has to; it’s part of his position. Suffice it to note that he’s at the table. I’m not going to identify him, as this was a private club function. I’m simply going to post some information he offered about where we're headed with respect to realignment.

You can take it or leave it, but please understand that he is on the inside and absolutely knows what’s going on. Importantly, he made his comments strictly from the business vantage point of collegiate athletics. He came at it from that angle because that’s what collegiate athletics have become: a business.

It simply doesn’t matter, as an example, if fans think the ACC is better than the BE in football, or if fans believe the BE has had a better record than the ACC over the last numbers of years and that such performance related data matter in any of this. If you choose to look at this stuff as a fan and not from the business side of it, you’ll probably end up disappointed, surprised or both.

If there was a theme to the evening it was this: Follow the Money. That’s what all this is all about. Again, it isn’t about records or who’s done what on the field. It’s about whether or not your specific program has a viable television market, a really big stadium and an avid fan base. With that noted, here we go.

Realignment isn’t finished. It took a pause because the BCS power players needed to sort through the play-off process, as well as digest the expansion moves they’d already made.

I was wrong about the SEC requiring the Big XII to pick-up two more teams to get to a conference play-off game. That is not a requirement; the Big XII technically is free to determine how it determines its champion, at least for the upcoming season. Yet it doesn’t matter, because the big boys are definitely moving towards the 4 by 16 format. Movement in that direction is expected to pick up again after this coming season.

What’s the logic for that? That’s easy. The math works, and we end up with a relevant regular season that dovetails into tidy conference championship games that flow into the 4 game playoff format - 4 conferences with two 8-team divisions spins up 8 conference championship participants that lead to the 4-team playoff. They play two games to get to the championship game and the NC is crowned from there. That keeps the regular season relevant; you have to do well to make it to your conference championship game. BTW, starting next year, each of these titans is precluded from playing more than one D1AA school. Is it a perfect solution? Of course not, but this is where it’s headed.

Who will the B1G go after initially? Maryland and Georgia Tech. They’ll go after Maryland for the D.C. television market and Georgia Tech for penetration into the South, as well as for the Atlanta television market. Both make the grade academically. No insights offered into which might be the two final teams to bring the B1G to 16.

So what will the SEC do? They’ll focus on strengthening their basketball product and academic image by pulling in Duke and UNC. I had already heard that somewhere before. I absolutely believe it now, given the source of tonight’s information.

Why is the BCS power elite establishing a 12-year timeframe? They’re clocking it at 12 years so that they won’t have to deal with any of this again in their present jobs. The guys that are driving the bus now will be retired when this thing comes around again.

Notre Dame? You aren’t going to like this Irish fans. This starts with ND’s NBC contract. Guess how that really works. ND alumni tied to certain companies work with ND alumni who work for NBC and they put a nice little deal together where they’ve pulled about $8 million in advertising revenue through NBC and pay that out to ND. The problem is that most of those guys are retiring or have retired; those special relationships aren’t around any longer, and NBC now has to answer to Comcast anyway. Worse for NBC, which makes it worse for NBC and ND is that ND’s Saturday ratings share has tanked. The share can’t justify the economics of the deal if the tidy, club-deal, pull-through ad revenue arrangement walks.

Is there any belief that ND can turn things around. The consensus in most BCS circles is that they have no chance, because they can no longer recruit partial qualifiers. That was shut down after Holtz. It’s why Holtz left. The bottom-line comment about ND this evening was that it will eventually be driven to join a conference.

Some people throw up the travel expense issue as a reason why some of this realignment business doesn’t make sense. WVU would beg to differ with them. They’ll make an additional $11 million per year by moving to the Big XII. Their travel budget increase estimate for all sports, based on Big XII travel: $1 million. They have no problem with the incremental $10 million and the stability and prestige that comes with the Big XII and playing teams like Texas and OU, instead of being stuck in an unstable, hybrid BE where they have to deal with a UC and Rutgers.

The B1G is very loyal to its membership. In other words, Penn State isn’t going anywhere. The idea here is that the B1G considers itself a family. When a member screws up, you don’t kick them out of the family. But when a family member in the B1G screws up, then they’re punished financially. That explains the recent actions taken by the B1G against Penn State, including not kicking Penn State to the curb.

The B1G and the SEC would never kick out an existing member. So, as an example, any Florida State fan that is hoping the SEC will kick out a Vanderbilt to make room for it is simply wasting their time. That won’t happen. If you are already inside the castle walls, sharing in the gold, well then good for you.

The BE basketball schools own the BE name. The BE conference has the bank account. All that means is that if it does ever break apart, they’ll divide up the cash based on some kind of agreement, but the hoops schools get to keep the brand. Period. End of story.

What about the newly minted BE v3 (or whatever the version is now)? It’s DOA. It’s done. Not this year, but it’s done when the realignment process starts up again. Just from what was shared above, the ACC would already be down 4 bell weather schools. The ACC will fight to stay relevant to some regard, but, as compared to conferences that boast programs that fill 100k stadiums, etc., nothing Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, or a UConn does at that point will ever allow them a chance at the NC path. It was thought that UL might be able to lift out directly to the Big XII when it cranks up again. But schools like UC are toast in all this. Just toast.

Probably fairly widely known, but only 10% of the D1A programs actually make money with most of them returning some money to their schools. Everyone else is in subsidy land, though negative pressure is growing on that practice.

The NCAA is a club deal and it pays to have connections. As an aside comment (by me), Xavier enjoys that now with Mike Bobinski. Having listened to all this tonight, I am convinced that we are well positioned to sustain a high major, national profile program. We could still end up changing conferences. We could stay with the A10. We’ll see what happens, but the program is well positioned. I’m going to comment on that elsewhere – provide my opinions and reasoning on that. One big immediate obstacle to overcome in the next two to three years – IMHO – is that we’re going to have to replace Mike Bobinski. He is going to want to move on at some point, as he’s been with us now for 13 years. As I noted, more on X later.

More material change is coming. It may or may not have a direct impact on us, with respect to our conference affiliation, but, when you’re the flagship, you’re heavy enough and strong enough to make it through high seas.

[paulxu]

Dash, that is fascinating. I think I understand the logic of the playoff system driving them to 4 X 16. But boy am I having a hard time visualizing it. And, I forget who has already committed to leaving a confernece. But here's some info; I would be interested if you would take a guess to fill it in.

Current big 6 conference members 68; plus ND and maybe Boise (?) means 70 teams reducing to 64.
If the 4 conferences left don't include ACC and Big East, their 20 teams have to go somewhere or be left out in the cold:

SEC 14; adds Duke and UNC (although Duke's stadium only seats 33,000?) = 16

Big 10: adds Ga. Tech and Maryland = 14; maybe adds ND and Rutgers = 16

Big 12: adds Louisville, Va Tech, Clemson, Florida St, Virginia (?), and Miami (?) =16

Pac 12: adds Boise State and San Deigo St (?) = 14

So, the Pac 12 needs 2 more schools, and there are a bunch of BE/ACC schools left out, none of which make sense to add to the Pac 12:

BC, NC State (!), Wake, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse and Temple. (I'm ignoring recent BE additions).

The Big 12 and Big 10 may shuffle a few of their noted additions, but how do you get the Pac 12 to 16 teams?

[xudash]

That question didn't come up last night, but you're looking at in exactly the right way - - what is the remaining available "inventory" of teams to fill in the 4x16 gaps.

Whatever the answer is, it will involve a process that follows the money. I don't want to overuse that phrase, but it was fascinating to listen to this individual re-emphasize that over and over again as someone from Florida State made their case or someone from Miami made theirs. Those schools will most likely be fine, at least FSU will be. I believe the constant harping by fans of some schools about their tradition and records, etc. just brings chuckles to these guys. They're sitting around the table solving for TELEVISION MONEY while an NC State fan wobbling at a bar somewhere, as an example, adamantly tells his friend that nothing will ever happen to the ACC because, well because it's the ACC.

I think we can surmise this much: the ACC is done as a power conference that participates inside the castle walls. The reason for that lay in the intentions of the SEC (UNC and Duke) and B1G (Maryland and G Tech). So it's not like a re-solidified Big XII will become the sandbox from which the PAC 12 will pull its new toys. The Big XII is well on its way to becoming one of the four. On that note, I bet Larry Scott really wishes he had been able to pull Texas, OU, etc. to him already, given your question and what probably would have been most logical for the PAC 12 to do.

I don't see Boise making the cut. An overriding comment last night, whether you believe it to be fair or not, was "how would Boise have done year in and year out over the last 5 seasons had it had to play an SEC schedule?" In effect, the BCS power players don't take Boise too seriously, though, to Boise's credit, it keeps making their lives miserable in occasional head-to-head competition. Boise can't deliver a viable television market, and its stadium is too small.

SDSU may make it. Why? Follow their money, or potential money: San Diego television market, they play in the Chargers stadium and they appear to have averaged almost 40k in attendance in 2011 through a MWC schedule. Obviously, they're a part of the California university system, so perhaps that works in their favor as well, assuming their colleagues see them as a peer. The only downside on SDSU has to do with pedigree; they're not an existing BCS school. But that's what must take anyone looking at all this back to following the money. Ten years down the road from having been brought into such a deal and having been validated by it, if you will, nobody will recall SDSU's days in the MWC. By then, they could be selling out Qualcomm's 70+k seats when USC, etc. come to town.

At present and ironically, it would seem that the PAC 12 is heading in the same comical direction as the BE with respect to having a name that doesn't have everything to do with being associated with the Pacific Ocean. At least we've learned that the travel budget issue for a school's Olympic Sports isn't an issue after all, given the data shared on WVU.

Now look at those remaining that you identified: BC, NC State (!), Wake, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse and Temple. (I'm ignoring recent BE additions).

Let's accept that none of these schools will drop football if they're left out. Which ever of these schools are left over when the 4x16 finally fills in, I imagine that some combination of them will come together where they can emphasize both football and basketball to drive the best television deal possible. It gets a little complicated - I think - in that will they retain D1A status if they have no shot at the NC path? I don't know. Let's assume they keep the status, but have no shot at a NC. Collegiate football purgatory, I guess. Keep playing football for your school/alumni, go to second tier bowls, play strong basketball, collect money from a reasonable television package, and, watch the big boys go for the NC every year after your season has ended.

BC - sorry, it would be great if a Boston location meant viewers, but the network people know that the Northeastern corridor is a pro-sports first market. Beautiful school in a lovely Chestnut Hill location, but that 40k'ish stadium doesn't cut it either. Doug Flutie put you on the map once. You have that.

NC State - so North Carolina taxpayers, how do you feel about all those athletic capital project improvements now?

Wake Forest - what on God's green earth were you doing in the BCS in the first place. Way to have been in the right place at the right time, once upon a time.

UC - Bad news: you're taste of the big-time is coming to an end. Good news: you won't have to go back to full C-USA mode, you can position yourself as one of the scraps that constitute the new ACC, after the Big4 guts the ACC and the ACC guts the BE to survive as a second citizen. Second citizens can't bee too concerned about stadiums that seat 35k.

UConn - UConn taxpayers, please see comments for NC State. Hey, you did well there for a while as a start-up!

Pitt - I see Pitt as the biggest historic loser in all this, because Pitt has faded tradition and certainly would prefer to get back into the limelight. Pittsburgh television market. Heinz Field. Maybe the PAC 12 acknowledges that it has a "P" in its name and takes them in instead of taking one of the other schools you identified.

The others really don't require commentary.

[GoMuskies]

I don't see Boise making the cut. An overriding comment last night, whether you believe it to be fair or not, was "how would Boise have done year in and year out over the last 5 seasons had it had to play an SEC schedule?"

Let's check out this little thought. Probably should extend it to six years to pick up Boise's win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. That's when they jumped onto the scene.

In '06:

Boise beat Oregon State 42-14. Oregon State was 7-3 against BCS opponents in 2006.
Boise beat Oklahoma 43-42 in OT. Oklahoma was 9-2 against BCS opponents in 2006

In '07:

Boise lost to Washington 24-10. Washington was 3-8 against BCS opponents in 2007

In '08:

Boise beat Oregon 37-32. Oregon was 9-2 against BCS opponents in 2008

In '09:
Boise beat Oregon 19-8. Oregon was 9-2 against BCS opponents in 2009

In '10:
Boise beat VaTech 33-30. VaTech was 9-1 against BCS opponents in 2010
Boise beat Oregon State 37-24. Oregon State was 5-6 against BCS opponents in 2010

In '11:

Boise beat Georgia 35-21. Georgia was 8-3 against BCS conference opponents.
Boise beat Arizona State 56-24. ASU was 5-6 against BCS conference opponents.

So in those past six years, Boise is 8-1 against BCS conference opponents who are themselves 64-33 against BCS conference foes. I suspect Boise would have made itself quite at home in any conference for at least 4 of the last six years.

I suppose they pay for others' stupidity.

[SM#24]

F O L L O W T H E M O N E Y
and prestige that comes with the Big XII and playing teams like Texas and OU, instead of being stuck in an unstable, hybrid BE where they have to deal with a UC and Rutgers.

I like how every time someone compares one conference to another they cite the best from one and the worst from another. You could at least say Texas/OU vs. Louisville/UConn; in the Big XII, you still have to deal with Iowa St., Kansas St., Texas Tech

[GoMuskies]

How is Duke not on the list of schools that are out? Or Wazzu? Or Baylor? Or Iowa State? Or Northwestern? Or Vandy?

Seems like a silly list.

[xudash]

You're looking at victories spread out over multiple seasons. That doesn't work. Have them play a full SEC schedule in one season and check the results from there. BTW, I like Boise State. None of this has anything to do with me having an agenda against BSU.

You fell right back into the trap of comparing results again. The power brokers that are putting all this together don't care about Boise's bowl performance or first game performance over the last six years. They don't care about that because each of these Big4 conferences already have their respective share of pedigree schools that drive sufficient results for overall viewership. These guys are solving for television money. That's it.

Boise isn't paying for others' stupidity, if you are implying that the people driving the realignment process are stupid. Do you think they're missing your point as a fan who can show results (albeit spread out over multiple seasons and not reflected through the grind of one season in a very tough conference)? They don't care. In Boise's case, they would listen if Boise weren't in Boise, ID and, blue carpet or not, they had a stadium that filled every home weekend with at least 70k people.

[xudash]

It doesn't matter. The membership of the existing Big4 will remain as it is now. Comparisons like that don't matter.

Notwithstanding the fact that the power brokers are solving for television money, teams like Iowa State and KSU don't have to worry about it, because they're already inside the castle walls.

[xudash]

Re-read the post:

- The SEC wants Duke to bolster its basketball conference and for academic reasons.
- Otherwise, schools that are "already in" aren't going to be kicked out.

[GoMuskies]

You fell right back into the trap of comparing results again.

I actually responded directly to a statement in your post. And it's pointless to say that the wins are spread out over multiple seasons. I'm willing to wager that more than half of all BCS schools don't have that many quality wins in the last six years even though they've had probably 30-35 opportunities for such quality wins. It's much more likely that Boise would be competing at the highest levels of any conference than that they would fall to the bottom. Beating three BCS conference champs in six years doesn't happen among BCS bottom feeders. Hell, Kentucky has been to multiple bowls in the last few years, has played in the SEC forever, and they've beaten exactly one BCS conference champ in 30+ years. It's just a tired, silly argument against Boise.

The economics/TV aspect is a different can of worms (that doesn't explain why Vandy, Baylor, Wazzu, Duke and the like are on the inside, of course).

[xudash]

I actually responded directly to a statement in your post. And it's pointless to say that the wins are spread out over multiple seasons. I'm willing to wager that more than half of all BCS schools don't have that many quality wins in the last six years even though they've had probably 30-35 opportunities for such quality wins. It's much more likely that Boise would be competing at the highest levels of any conference than that they would fall to the bottom. Beating three BCS conference champs in six years doesn't happen among BCS bottom feeders. Hell, Kentucky has been to multiple bowls in the last few years, has played in the SEC forever, and they've beaten exactly one BCS conference champ in 30+ years. It's just a tired, silly argument against Boise.

The economics/TV aspect is a different can of worms (that doesn't explain why Vandy, Baylor, Wazzu, Duke and the like are on the inside, of course).

I would agree with you if Boise were a member of one of those conferences so that they could take advantage of the recruiting prestige those conferences provide. However, as also was pointed out last night on the topic of Boise State, though I didn't point it out here earlier, is that Boise has about 22 top flight players on its roster in any given season. The Ohio State's and LSU's of the world have in excess of 50 of them and can platoon people into games as needed. So it isn't pointless to point out the fact that Boise's record is spread out. Again, put them into a full same-season schedule and then see how that grind would affect their record. This isn't my argument; this was sentiment shared last night in a room filled with SEC-related people.

And, again, as to the issue of Vandy, Baylor, and Wazzu, they're in the club and they won't be kicked out of it. In Duke's case, the more-than-firm "rumor" is that the SEC will come calling soon enough. How ironical is it that God's gift to football conferences can now think about hoops and academics, given its on the verge of fully launching its version of the BTN.

[GoMuskies]

This isn't my argument; this was sentiment shared last night in a room filled with SEC-related people.

Yes, these are the stupids to whom I was referring.

[GoMuskies]

By the way, two of Boise's wins over BCS conference champs were in week one (both teams at full strength), and the other was in a bowl (after five weeks rest to get to near full strenghth). They also beat a SEC division champ in week one last year.

[xudash]

GM, I'm not arguing with you about anything you're posting about Boise. I understand the argument. However, I also see where these "stupid people" you refer to have their own reasonable argument about having Boise pull off an undefeated season by playing in the SEC for a year.

But none of that matters. None of it.

BTW, the people in the room last night were anything but stupid. They were being SEC fans, with some being extremely nervous ACC fans. The speaker who shared all this information is one of the sharpest guys in the "fraternity" and has been around for a while now.

You can either consider looking at it from the vantage point of how it will all develop from here - based on a business emphasis that has Follow the Money as its motto - or you can look at it the way fans look at it. Those vantage points aren't mutually exclusive. It just so happens that some fans have the luxury of rooting for programs that have already made it or have been identified as programs that will make it, while others root for programs that will find themselves in a rather terrible predicament, as compared to their prior status, soon enough.

[GoMuskies]

#1 - Never said Boise would go undefeated in the SEC. Simply that they'd have done just fine in any confernce the past several years. And I think the evidence is pretty clear on that fact.

#2 - I don't think I've ever given a serious prediction (maybe a guess?) on how this would all play out. I'm sure the smart guys making the decisions will make ones that I consider short-sighted and stupid and that make college football much, much less interesting. But I've never claimed it was going to play out in a way that rewarded teams for what they do on the football field. I've simply made my opinion known on how idiotic I think that is. And I've certainly pointed out what I believe are myths about the quality of football played by certain schools vs. the quality of football played by other groups of schools, and I've attempted to use actual evidence to back that up where most of the pushback is squishy perception without more.

[muskienick]

I heartily agree that San Diego State should be #13 given their position on the Pacific Coast, their 70,000+ stadium, their 14,000+ basketball arena, their wonderful climate, and their relatively large media market.

How about Hawaii for the 14th member of the PAC-16 Conference. Aloha Stadium holds in excess of 50,000 fannies and who wouldn't want to travel there for an away game each year? The basketball arena holds, 10,300 and seems like a first-class venue (but I haven't been there in person). Plus, if this is all being done for the almighty TV $, there should be plenty more available in each PAC-16 member's sports budget to pay the travel freight since the PAC 16 would be only one of four Conferences.

Other options to get to 16 might include Air Force Academy (despite their supposed desire to join the ranks of the insane and go to the Big East). Their stadium holds 52,000+ and they already would have a partner handy in the Buffs of Colorado. One drawback could be their 5,800-seat basketball facility. They are located in the beautiful Colorado Springs area and have a metro population of almost 620,000.

Colorado State's football program has a pretty good history (they visited Corcoran Field when they were called the Colorado A&M Rams back in the late 60's or early 70's). They may have to find a way to increase the capacity of their 34,000+ seat stadium and their Moby Arena is just barely adequate in size at 8,700+. It is already a natural rival of one PAC member, Colorado, and it's less than 60 miles from Denver. It's home, Fort Collins (population ~144,000), has been designated as one of the six best places to live in the U.S. at least three times in the last six years.

Another possibility would be UNLV. Its stadium can hold over 40,000 (when needed) and the Thomas & Mack Arena can hold almost 19,000 Runnin' Rebel fans. Of course there is the problem of having nothing else to do when you get there, but maybe the City fathers will let you visit the CSI Lab facilities.

Fresno State might make another intriguing member of the PAC 16. It is ideally suited for the PAC 16, it has a 41,000+ stadium and a relatively new 15,500+ basketball arena. It is located roughly halfway between LA and Frisco, but inland from the coast about 50 miles from I-5 that helps to connect the aformentioned two cities.

Then there is Boise State. Their football over the last decade has been very competitive. It appears there is a possibility that the Broncos could close up either end of their stadium to increase the capacity from its current 33,500 depending on how much $ they had available to spend and what the PAC 15 might require for their admission. It's Taco Bell Arena is first class, beautiful, and seats almost 12,400 fans. While Boise main seem as insignificant as Bangor (Maine), it is the capital of Idaho, has a population over 200,000, and a metro population of over 600,000.

[LA Muskie]

Dash,

Thanks so much for your post about your conversation. It's about time someone brought some relevant information to this thread. Your friend is of course right -- follow the money. These conferences don't care about the W/L record of any of the schools they may lure into their fold. You have to understand the hubris: they are an elite club, and as far as they are concerned success will necessarily flow from entry into their club. (and, of course, the club will benefit by the addition as well...)

As for the PAC 12, I do think you'll see them add SDSU and Boise St. They both bring meaningful TV markets -- San Diego for the size of its local market, Boise State because it has built a bit of a national following. I don't think you'll see the PAC 12 pull a Big East. They don't need to go to 16 and the PAC 12 presidents (who tend to be a more critical bunch when it comes to these matters) won't go to 16 just for the sake of numbers.

[LA Muskie]

I heartily agree that San Diego State should be #13 given their position on the Pacific Coast, their 70,000+ stadium, their 14,000+ basketball arena, their wonderful climate, and their relatively large media market.

How about Hawaii for the 14th member of the PAC-16 Conference. Aloha Stadium holds in excess of 50,000 fannies and who wouldn't want to travel there for an away game each year? The basketball arena holds, 10,300 and seems like a first-class venue (but I haven't been there in person). Plus, if this is all being done for the almighty TV $, there should be plenty more available in each PAC-16 member's sports budget to pay the travel freight since the PAC 16 would be only one of four Conferences.

Other options to get to 16 might include Air Force Academy (despite their supposed desire to join the ranks of the insane and go to the Big East). Their stadium holds 52,000+ and they already would have a partner handy in the Buffs of Colorado. One drawback could be their 5,800-seat basketball facility. They are located in the beautiful Colorado Springs area and have a metro population of almost 620,000.

Colorado State's football program has a pretty good history (they visited Corcoran Field when they were called the Colorado A&M Rams back in the late 60's or early 70's). They may have to find a way to increase the capacity of their 34,000+ seat stadium and their Moby Arena is just barely adequate in size at 8,700+. It is already a natural rival of one PAC member, Colorado, and it's less than 60 miles from Denver. It's home, Fort Collins (population ~144,000), has been designated as one of the six best places to live in the U.S. at least three times in the last six years.

Another possibility would be UNLV. Its stadium can hold over 40,000 (when needed) and the Thomas & Mack Arena can hold almost 19,000 Runnin' Rebel fans. Of course there is the problem of having nothing else to do when you get there, but maybe the City fathers will let you visit the CSI Lab facilities.

Fresno State might make another intriguing member of the PAC 16. It is ideally suited for the PAC 16, it has a 41,000+ stadium and a relatively new 15,500+ basketball arena. It is located roughly halfway between LA and Frisco, but inland from the coast about 50 miles from I-5 that helps to connect the aformentioned two cities.

Then there is Boise State. Their football over the last decade has been very competitive. It appears there is a possibility that the Broncos could close up either end of their stadium to increase the capacity from its current 33,500 depending on how much $ they had available to spend and what the PAC 15 might require for their admission. It's Taco Bell Arena is first class, beautiful, and seats almost 12,400 fans. While Boise main seem as insignificant as Bangor (Maine), it is the capital of Idaho, has a population over 200,000, and a metro population of over 600,000.
As I just said (apparently while you were typing this), I think SDSU and Boise State would be in. I tend to doubt that the PAC 12 would go any further just to add 2 more schools, but if they did I think it would probably be Hawaii and either Colorado State or UNLV. I don't see the addition of 2 more CA schools (which would knock out Fresno St.)

[paulxu]

Thanks for the thoughts Dash, and you other guys for recommendations on how to get the Pac 12 to 16 teams.
I think they will eventually take Boise and SDSU. (Boise would increase their seating with the TV money).
The other possible additions are intriguing. Even though East Coast schools can do the travel to the Big 12, I don't think one or two of them would do it for the Pac 12. So someone like Hawaii, or Colo St. make sense if they need to get to 16 (scheduling, rules, etc.)

Duke in the SEC will be horrible for football though. Ugh.
But these guys are really screwed if what you say comes along:

BC, NC State (!), Wake, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse and Temple

[xudash]

You're welcome LA M.

Paul and you may be right about Boise, especially given Paul's point about their ability to expand their stadium if they're brought into the club.

As for 14 versus 16 for the PAC 12, I certainly understand and agree with the point about the PAC 12 not adding to 16 for numbers sake, but, regardless of how their television models work out, it may be about actually getting to 16 the best way they can, because the discussion last night was all about the following:

SEC = 8 EAST AND 8 WEST > CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

B1G = 8 LEGENDS AND 8 LEADERS > CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ..................4 TO 2 TO A NC

BIG XII = 8 AND 8 > CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

PAC 16 = 8 AND 8 > CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

That's what the power brokers are after now. Again, they believe it saves the regular season, as you have all these teams vying for the Division to get to their conference championship. All of it holds places at the table for the major bowls. And Jerry Jones gets to fill up his palace occasionally with a NC game, among other rotating venue yet to be determined, but foaming at the mouth right now.

[LA Muskie]

Thanks again Dash. I could be wrong (I often am) but the only way I see the Pac 12 realistically getting beyond 14 is if there is some bartering with the Big XII where a few of their western members move over and they pick up additional schools from the midwest/east. The Pac 12 presidents are a pretty heady lot, and I could easily see them saying that 7 and 7 will work just fine (and the rest of the football-playing world thinking it's not worth the argument).

[paulxu]

sec = 8 east and 8 west > championship game----------------------------> National Champion

b1g = 8 legends and 8 leaders > championship game

big xii = 8 and 8 > championship game

pac 16 = 8 and 8 > championship game

ftfy.

[BMoreX]

So dash, what does all this mean for X? (I know you alluded to you posting more about how it affects us in your initial post.)

[xudash]

It will only be my opinion, but I'll post tomorrow or over the weekend about it, after I settle down a little bit.

Paul, well done; too funny. Just remember, they say this stuff goes in cycles!

[American X]

Originally Posted by xudash
sec = 8 east and 8 west > championship game----------------------------> National Champion

b1g = 8 legends and 8 leaders > championship game

big xii = 8 and 8 > championship game

pac 16 = 8 and 8 > championship game

ftfy.

Exactly. Why would the SEC find a 4x16 format desirable when most years it already has two of the top four teams?

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Good stuff Dash.

Here's another twitter account that is talking re-alignment. https://twitter.com/MHver3. I have no idea if he's been accurate in the past or if he's legitimate, but a lot of this stuff is rumors anyway so why not post it?

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn now telling Swofford to expand to 16. FSU and others are blocking for now. Dissension.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Certain ACC schools are urging for more time to try and woo the Irish. But Espn promising to ensure the ACC is among the top 5 financially

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Bowlsby's recent statements regarding expansion and the valuation info from last year that was recently leaked are not coincidences

[xudash]

Exactly. Why would the SEC find a 4x16 format desirable when most years it already has two of the top four teams?

Based on recent performance, it wouldn't, but you appear to be looking at it from a fan's viewpoint again (imagine that, since we're talking sports here).

However, based on the fact that it is only 1 of 4 major conferences putting this thing together, tough shit, when it gets to this point.

Again, this is about business and money and not purely about what goes on on the field. They're structuring this thing for 12 years based on revenue models and this quasi-playoff framework.

Ask your question in Chicago - at a B1G conference meeting - or in LA - at a PAC 12 meeting - and they'll tell you to shove it, because "it's all cyclical." Evidence points to the contrary in recent years and based upon what we're seeing out of the SEC now, but it's hard to counter the argument.

I believe we all know two things for certain about all this:

1. A lot of money is going to be made by the "have's"; and
2. A lot of people are going to be dissatisfied with the new system.

[paulxu]

Why do you suppose there's talk of a new ACC/ESPN deal if the ACC will be raided to get the 4 big conferences?

[GuyFawkes38]

I think we can surmise this much: the ACC is done as a power conference that participates inside the castle walls. The reason for that lay in the intentions of the SEC (UNC and Duke) and B1G (Maryland and G Tech). So it's not like a re-solidified Big XII will become the sandbox from which the PAC 12 will pull its new toys. The Big XII is well on its way to becoming one of the four. On that note, I bet Larry Scott really wishes he had been able to pull Texas, OU, etc. to him already, given your question and what probably would have been most logical for the PAC 12 to do.


I love the irony of this. The ACC started the recent cycle of conference changes by raiding the Big East. As it turns out, they might be left in worse shape by it all.

[GoMuskies]

Why do you suppose there's talk of a new ACC/ESPN deal if the ACC will be raided to get the 4 big conferences?

Because no one knows what's going to happen yet. No one. Some people obviously know more than others, but there's certainly no meeting of the minds as of yet. So the ACC has to proceed for now.

[xudash]

Good stuff Dash.

Here's another twitter account that is talking re-alignment. https://twitter.com/MHver3. I have no idea if he's been accurate in the past or if he's legitimate, but a lot of this stuff is rumors anyway so why not post it?

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn now telling Swofford to expand to 16. FSU and others are blocking for now. Dissension.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Certain ACC schools are urging for more time to try and woo the Irish. But Espn promising to ensure the ACC is among the top 5 financially

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Bowlsby's recent statements regarding expansion and the valuation info from last year that was recently leaked are not coincidences

"Espn now telling Swofford to expand to 16. FSU and others are blocking for now. Dissension." - - They know what's coming. Can you imagine how uncomfortable it must be in the athletic department hallways of Duke and Chapel Hill right now, given that they're at the epicenter of the ACC and what is projected for them down the near road.


"Certain ACC schools are urging for more time to try and woo the Irish. But Espn promising to ensure the ACC is among the top 5 financially" - - And the Irish are sitting there, knowing the clock is ticking on their 2015 NBC contract maturity. Nonetheless, this is the tweet that sits at the center of how I think things will work out for Xavier.

MY OPINION ONLY, but perhaps the following could be the flow of things to come, assuming everything I heard and discussed on Wednesday night comes true:

1. First and foremost, nothing changes with the NCAA, relative to what constitutes D1A football. It's that way now, with BCS schools and non-BCS schools comprising the D1A group and with BCS schools mainly making it almost exclusively to BCS bowl games and the NC game. The difference is that the new structure is projected to finally put up a fence to keep non-BCS schools out of the NC playoff process. Even with that rather material difference, I don't foresee the NCAA re-classing over all this. The BCS is in the driver seat for big-time college football, doing what it wants to do anyway. Importantly, put to rest the idea that the newly defined BCS club is going to mess with basketball as it presently exists - it isn't on their minds.

2. So you'll have some schools that used to be in the inner-sanctum that will no longer be in it. And you'll have other schools that were never in it anyway. Does the NCAA establish a play-off for them, even if they're still classed with the BCS schools as D1A programs? "No" is the answer to that, because it wouldn't be financially viable and those schools will still want access to the hoops tournament. Besides, "who cares" will be the vast reaction to such an idea anyway. Otherwise, the former BCS schools will be too busy scrambling to patch a revamped ACC back together so that they can get it to a television contract that makes as much sense as possible. Perhaps that's why ESPN already is promising to make the ACC #5 in financial package. It isn't going to land in the 1 through 4 spots, and the BE isn't going be around to threaten it for that 5th position.

3. On that note, let's go back to Paul's leftovers list: BC, NC State, Wake, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse and Temple. Add Memphis to that, as an example, and say hello to the new, "I'll keep playing football, but will never be able to go for the real brass ring anymore" 10 member ACC conference that can claim reasonable basketball legitimacy, and therefore not a bad all-sports television package. Among other unattractive outcomes for them, they'll help to partially fill bowl games from Shreveport to Detroit. Bottom-line: if life is going to be this cruel, then the name of the game is to still get to as much television money as possible, keep playing football to keep alumni happy, and go to bowl games that may or may not involve palm trees, still going to them anyway, while losing money doing that, for the alumni, at least for those who bother to show up, in Shreveport. Besides, the vicious cynics would tell you that schools like Wake Forest, BC, UConn, USF, etc. never belonged with the titans of the game anyway. Darwinian Theory works its magic again.

4. Guess where that leaves us? Yes folks, Georgetown, Nova, Marquette, et al will wake up one day and wonder where everyone went. We've said all along that football drives all this. We know that television money is driving football. It had to come to pass that basketball schools tied to football schools were going to become untied from them. The only way that doesn't happen is if the television people tell the new ACC people that they would be better off being a hybrid for television revenue purposes, because Georgetown and Villanova are such valuable television properties, as an example. Good luck with that. The following would be the problem with that logic: "MHver3 ‏@MHver3 @Agallion let's just say there are only 4-5 all sports programs left in the Big East that really matter to Espn" - - "all sports." I wonder which schools are in that number: Rutgers (destined for the BCS club), UConn, UC, USF and .......

5. Does this mean that Xavier would fall-in with the BE hoops schools were a split like this to occur? Yes, if the new composition of that conference and the fact that they retain the BE brand is enough to drive a television package that makes sense to Xavier. Factoring in the very likely fact that ND will not be a part of that outcome, you would have Georgetown, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. Johns, Marquette, and DePaul inviting Xavier in with them. That may not be enough for the television executives. The television people will tell the BE people - who presently are being led by a former CBS executive - to add strength by concurrently adding the right teams and damaging the A10 in the process. They once took that approach with the ACC and BE, according to BC's Athletic Director at the time. That probably leaves room for 4 additional teams in doing that, assuming that basketball television economics means that 12 is enough and any number more than that is dilutive: Richmond, VCU, Butler and Dayton. If not 4, then two of those four, because basketball television economics says so; dilution comes faster once you're far removed from the Big4.

Either way and regardless of what happens, that tells me the following - if your school is a basketball-only school:

- You better have a large enough and well configured on campus facility that can drive revenue to your program.
- You better have an avid fanbase that packs that facility so that it does actually drive revenue to the program.
- You better find a way to make the NCAA Tournament consistently for national positioning - brand, recruiting, money.
- Keep driving your own television deal (Tier 3 rights I presume) for basketball - - FoxSportsOH in Xavier's case.

Beyond that, do what you can do with respect to conference alignment for the best television deal possible with your chosen colleagues. Beyond that is the "glow effect" of being aligned with reasonably prestigious schools.

The thing that concerns me the most? Losing Mike Bobinski before or as all this stuff begins to unfold.

[paulxu]

Dash

I am still fascinated by your original post about following the money. Have 2 close friends (one a UNC guy and one a Duke guy) who are very unhappy about possibly being in the SEC...unless of course the ACC implodes.

In thinking about your comment regarding adding those two schools to the SEC to improve the basketball stature, I though I'd ask you: "why add Duke if you are following the money?" (assumption being that football generates the money)

If no one gets kicked out of the castle walls, across the footprint of the SEC, they are probably not going to be able to add any more Texas schools. They reached into Missouri, have Arkansas and Louisiana covered (no schools left to get), both schools in Miss, Alabama and Tennessee; KY, Ga and SC have really no schools left [maybe Clemson and Louisville and GA Tech] and only one in Florida.

Clemson adds no appreciable TV market from South Carolina. GA should already be in the Atlanta TV market with Tech. Not sure about Louisville.

Below are the Neilsen markets. I can see within the footprint to add UNC at #24. Duke would not add any television(same market, as is North Carolina St.)

But for the 16th candidate, if money is really driving the market, doesn't a Florida school come on board?

UCF is the second biggest university in the country, in Orlando.
USF is in Tampa. Miami is down there.
Those are big TV markets with big fan bases. Then of course Louisville and Memphis are in the footprint.

Maybe if they took one of those (if all this really comes to pass) then Duke would go into your re-configured BE for basketball and their football and other sports would end up in a better fit conference.

14 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) 1,788,240 1.560
16 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 1,583,800 1.381
19 Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn 1,465,460 1.278
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) 1,143,420 0.997
25 Charlotte 1,140,900 0.995
38 West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce 788,020 0.687
48 Louisville 674,050 0.588
49 Memphis 669,940 0.584
62 Ft. Myers-Naples 504,240 0.440

[waggy]

Duke is the exception to the rule. It's about politics. The wailing would reach unprecedented levels if Duke were left out of the big boy club. It's that simple.

[Masterofreality]

Duke is the exception to the rule. It's about politics. The wailing would reach unprecedented levels if Duke were left out of the big boy club. It's that simple.

"Dook is Dook. They're on TV more than Leave it to Beavahhh reruns"
-Peter Gillen

[xudash]

Paul,

The answer to your question about why Duke and UNC, if the overall strategy actually is about following the money and football, lies in the SEC's belief that it is strong enough in football and can now solve for other issues it finds important: a stronger basketball conference coupled with a little more academic prestige.

As you know, and as was pointed out last week, the South is a bastion for college football, because the South went without professional sports of any kind for many, many years, as compared to the industrial North. These people are maniacal about it. You cut a swath through LA, AR, MS, AL, GA, and SC and you only find pro football in two of those states. Even so, LSU has been much bigger than the Saints for years and Georgia fans think about Dawgs before Falcons. UF is THE numero uno player in Florida, so Florida can keep filling up with more pro sports, but Gainesville will be packed every Saturday afternoon for home games there. UT has its substantial place in TN and Kentucky is.....good in hoops. Again, they don't believe they have to add for football related reasons. SEC football is perceived to be tough enough as it is, and their approaching SEC Network (BTN II) will print money for them at a desired rate.

Otherwise, 14 existing plus UNC and Duke makes 16, which will finish-up the SEC's expansion under the new model, if it all breaks as described last week.

[paulxu]

Oh, I know well the passion in the South for college football. I grew up in Tennessee and now live in South Carolina. When I was young there were NO pro sports in the South, except minor league baseball.

I also don't question the contacts you have, as I have none. Just seems out of character to say on one hand "follow the money" and then say....well, except for the SEC and Duke...let's bring some basketball legitimacy. Hell, maybe they don't need any more money!

[xudash]

Oh, I know well the passion in the South for college football. I grew up in Tennessee and now live in South Carolina. When I was young there were NO pro sports in the South, except minor league baseball.

I also don't question the contacts you have, as I have none. Just seems out of character to say on one hand "follow the money" and then say....well, except for the SEC and Duke...let's bring some basketball legitimacy. Hell, maybe they don't need any more money!

The was the exact point this person made last week. The have the luxury of not having to strengthen their football product any further. Otherwise, they have an internally perceived need to solve for those other two areas by adding the remaining two identified teams they'll eventually add.

[X-band '01]

CBSSports.com - Loyola-MD to join the Patriot League in 2013 (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/19966265/loyola-to-leave-maac-join-patriot-league-in-2013)

Noteworthy here in that Loyola will be allowed to participate in the MAAC Tournament this year whereas fellow Patriot plebe Boston U won't be allowed to play in their own conference tournament this year in the America East. Why is the Patriot League suddenly hellbent on 10 teams?

[American X]

Why is the Patriot League suddenly hellbent on 10 teams?

To challenge the Atlantic 10 for mediocrity?

[X-band '01]

Maybe it's for the Baltimore-Annapolis-DC triangle.

[DC Muskie]

Great move by Loyola. Cuts travel and raises their academic profile.

[paulxu]

OK, the other day, the Big East commish said this:

“There is a big divide with anything below us and almost no gap between us and what they are calling the Big 5. We say it’s the Big 6, I am not going to yield on that at all.”

Then yesterday's games provided this for prospective Big East teams:

Houston, which is leaving Conference USA after this season for the Big East, lost 30-13 to fledgling Football Bowl Subdivision member Texas State. And Memphis, which went 2-10 last season, suffered one of the program's all-time embarrassing losses to Tennessee-Martin, 20-17.

If KY beats Louisville today, the Big East won't have one program in the rankings.

[GoMuskies]

And in the ACC Pitt lost to Youngstown, Syracuse lost at home to Northwestern, Maryland beat Bill and Mary 7-6 and Wake nipped Liberty. There's still no reason to believe that the ACC will be any better than the Big East. If you're calling it a "Big Four", then that makes sense and the ACC and Big East are out. If you call it a "Big Five", then there's really no getting around that it's actually a "Big Six".

[Masterofreality]

And in the ACC Pitt lost to Youngstown, Syracuse lost at home to Northwestern, Maryland beat Bill and Mary 7-6 and Wake nipped Liberty. There's still no reason to believe that the ACC will be any better than the Big East. If you're calling it a "Big Four", then that makes sense and the ACC and Big East are out. If you call it a "Big Five", then there's really no getting around that it's actually a "Big Six".

Uh, Pitt and Syracuse are still in the Big Least. In fact, Pitt is picked to finish 3rd in the league. They have still been recruiting with a Big Least backdrop.

Time will tell if their recruiting is better in the ACC, but to call them "ACC" teams at this point is blatantly inaccurate and unfair.

There is no "Big Six" no matter how the new Big Greased Commish wants to spin it. Louisville just has to hope that they get invited to the real football party soon and don't get left behind.

This report comes to you from a born and bred Louisvillian.

[GoMuskies]

And Memphis and Houston are still in C-USA.

[Masterofreality]

And Memphis and Houston are still in C-USA.

True. To classify them in the Big Least at this point is also blatantly unfair and inaccurate.

[paulxu]

And Memphis and Houston are still in C-USA.


True. To classify them in the Big Least at this point is also blatantly unfair and inaccurate.


Then yesterday's games provided this for prospective Big East teams:

I thought I did that.

[xudash]

OK, the other day, the Big East commish said this:

“There is a big divide with anything below us and almost no gap between us and what they are calling the Big 5. We say it’s the Big 6, I am not going to yield on that at all.”

Then yesterday's games provided this for prospective Big East teams:

Houston, which is leaving Conference USA after this season for the Big East, lost 30-13 to fledgling Football Bowl Subdivision member Texas State. And Memphis, which went 2-10 last season, suffered one of the program's all-time embarrassing losses to Tennessee-Martin, 20-17.

If KY beats Louisville today, the Big East won't have one program in the rankings.

Baghdad Bob II

What else can he say at this point.

IMO, UL will land on its feet in the Big XII, but some of these schools are destined to be left out in the cold. Then again, many would argue that schools like Wake, BC, UCon and UC were never meant or well positioned to operate at this new coming level. Good for those schools like Vandy and Northwestern which don't belong there either, but which had already caught the right train.

[GoMuskies]

I thought I did that.

I'm with you. I'm just treating Pitt and Cuse the same way. They absolutely blow, and it's the ACC's problem now.

[GoMuskies]

If KY beats Louisville today

LOL. Good one.

[paulxu]

I see you waited until late in the 3rd quarter for that.

[GoMuskies]

Did you really think UK was going to win this one?

[paulxu]

I hadn't a clue about it one way or another.
Heck, we barely got out of Nashville.
Who knows?

[GoMuskies]

Kentucky was a two TD underdog for a reason.

[GoMuskies]

I hate UK as much as any of you guys hate UC, so this is a very, very happy day!

[Masterofreality]

I hate UK as much as any of you guys hate UC, so this is a very, very happy day!

U of L probably helped their case today to get to a major football league, but they played a team with a coach who's name is.....wait for it.....

Joker.

How serious can it be taken?

[GoMuskies]

The message I am replacing seemed a bit extreme when sober...

Three interesting future/current ACC vs. Big East games this week:

Pitt (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Thursday night.
NC State (-6) @ UConn
Maryland (+10.5) @ Temple

The Big East needs to get at least two of those three.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

'Big 12 TV deal made official'

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/07/report-big-12-tv-announcement-coming-friday/


The deal will reportedly be for 13 years through 2025 and worth $2.6 billion, which is the amount CBSSports reported back in May; the Sports Business Daily reported in March the amount would be $2.5 billion over 13 years. Big 12 members will receive $20 million annually from the deal.

Imagine what they would get if they added two more teams for a Conference Championship game

[Masterofreality]

Every deal cut and every big money amount spent leaves less in the till, and also fewer prime feature spots for the Big Least.

[xudash]

Every deal cut and every big money amount spent leaves less in the till, and also fewer prime feature spots for the Big Least.

MOR, I think it's fair to take the position that the train has definitely left the station, and the BE isn't on it. When your new conference commissioner has to step up to a microphone to announce that your conference will remain relevant, it's no longer relevant.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Brace yourself Dash...

'ND to the ACC'

SportsCenter ‏@SportsCenter

Sources: Notre Dame will join ACC as full member w/exception of football. ND will play 5 football games annually vs. ACC (via @McMurphyESPN)

[GoMuskies]

By screwing around, the Big East is going to wind up destroying both its football AND basketball leagues. Basketball could have been saved.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

By screwing around, the Big East is going to wind up destroying both its football AND basketball leagues. Basketball could have been saved.

Conference USA part 2.

[GoMuskies]

On a related note, the ACC sure does have a knack for adding football programs that USED to be good.

[coasterville95]

So yet another power conference didn't have the guts to say "You join in all sports, or nothing at all" Does Notre Dame really add that much sans football to make them an attractive school to pick up. IIRC they are far away from any other ACC programs. I can see the Meijurus "Who knew all the other A10 schools were that far from us" thing coming into play.

The Big East - she ain't what she used to be.

[Muskie]

So yet another power conference didn't have the guts to say "You join in all sports, or nothing at all" Does Notre Dame really add that much sans football to make them an attractive school to pick up. IIRC they are far away from any other ACC programs. I can see the Meijurus "Who knew all the other A10 schools were that far from us" thing coming into play.

The Big East - she ain't what she used to be.

They have pretty good basketball, and some other competitive non-revenue sports like Hockey. Plus the name.
I think it's a good pick up for the ACC honestly.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

So yet another power conference didn't have the guts to say "You join in all sports, or nothing at all" Does Notre Dame really add that much sans football to make them an attractive school to pick up. IIRC they are far away from any other ACC programs. I can see the Meijurus "Who knew all the other A10 schools were that far from us" thing coming into play.

The Big East - she ain't what she used to be.

I think the Big 12 and B 10 have tried that and it didn't work at all...The ACC was desperate

[blueblob06]

On a related note, the ACC sure does have a knack for adding football programs that USED to be good.
Ha! This is great.

Hey, so it's so confusing as to who is gonna be where now...so for Big East basketball, is this the future as of today?
UConn
UC
DePaul
Gtown
Lville
Marquette
Providence
Rutgers
St Johns
Seton Hall
USF
Temple
Villanova

Plus: Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF

So that's 17 teams. So were they actually planning to have 18 teams in the conference (prior to today's new of ND leaving) or were they just guessing more schools would leave? I can't keep up with all this....that's so many teams from all over the place. I'm looking forward to years of the 14 team A10 getting as many bids as the 17 team BigEast.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Andy Glockner ‏@AndyGlockner

If you assume the ACC will add one more school to get to 16, stakes are now enormous for Louisville, UConn, others, right?

[SM#24]

Basketball could have been saved.

How ?

No way ND was staying in the current/future Big East.
So I guess basketball can still be saved, because this really doesn't change anything; ND was gone months ago.

[GoMuskies]

By not adding SMU, Houston, Navy, Boise and San Diego State and instead focusing on basketball.

[BMoreX]

Andy Glockner ‏@AndyGlockner

If you assume the ACC will add one more school to get to 16, stakes are now enormous for Louisville, UConn, others, right?

Wouldn't they want a non-football school to balance ND out?

[DC Muskie]

From Goodman at CBS:

There's already speculation that the Hoyas could be next to depart, maybe even following Notre Dame to the ACC.

[SM#24]

By not adding SMU, Houston, Navy, Boise and San Diego State and instead focusing on basketball.
I don't think there's anything that could have been done to save ND.

[Pluto]

Does Notre Dame really add that much sans football to make them an attractive school to pick up.

I don't know if the ACC does this but the Big 10 & Pac 12 conferences coordinate research dollars, which is even bigger money than the television contracts.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Wouldn't they want a non-football school to balance ND out?

Good point....

[blueblob06]

Andy Glockner ‏@AndyGlockner

If you assume the ACC will add one more school to get to 16, stakes are now enormous for Louisville, UConn, others, right?


Wouldn't they want a non-football school to balance ND out?
I know of a non-football school located on Victory Parkway...

[SM#24]

From Goodman at CBS:

There's already speculation that the Hoyas could be next to depart, maybe even following Notre Dame to the ACC.
I've been fearing any eventual Xavier alliance with BE basketball schools would come without Gtown and Villanova; maybe even St. John's. Maybe the ACC will tack on all three.

[GoMuskies]

So the ACC will survive...barely and as the weak sister to the Big 12, Pac 12, Big Whatever and SEC. And completely lose its identity. Weird times.

The Big East should honestly just disband, and the "best of the rest" should re-form something new. Maybe the remnants of Big East basketball could keep the name and essentially merge with the best 10 A-10 programs (sorry LaSalle, Fordham, Duquesne, St. Bonny and those of you with footbal aspirations).

ND and G'town to the ACC, I think, would finally fully open the door to nutty (or nuttier given all that's happened) time realignment.

[GoMuskies]

I don't think there's anything that could have been done to save ND.

Not saying they would have kept ND. Losing ND wasn't a fatal blow, though. Losing G'town, too, would be.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

So the ACC will survive...barely and as the weak sister to the Big 12, Pac 12, Big Whatever and SEC. And completely lose its identity. Weird times.

The Big East should honestly just disband, and the "best of the rest" should re-form something new. Maybe the remnants of Big East basketball could keep the name and essentially merge with the best 10 A-10 programs (sorry LaSalle, Fordham, Duquesne, St. Bonny and those of you with footbal aspirations).

ND and G'town to the ACC, I think, would finally fully open the door to nutty (or nuttier given all that's happened) time realignment.

The ACC still has to worry about some of their members staying IMO.

The following teams contacted the B12, B1G, and the SEC recently:

BC
FSU
Clemson
GT
Miami
Maryland
VT

I know that FSU was dead set AGAINST ND joining as a partial member. They've been in the most serious talks with the Big12. Gotta think this could send them out sooner than expected.

[paulxu]

This is nutso. I can see for the research $, prestige, etc. But without football, what the heck good does it do.
If the ACC loses some teams to the Big12, they've still got their same problem. This hasn't helped, unless it sets the stage for ND to join when their TV deal runs out.
If they go to 4 big conferences eventually, ND will still be on the outside. I still think they should have joined the Big10 for everything.

[paulxu]

Somebody help me with these quotes from the ESPN article:

"We are able to maintain our historic independence in football, join in the ACC's non-BCS bowl package, and provide a new and extremely competitive home for our other sports."

What's a "non-BCS bowl package" if you aren't even playing football in the ACC?

"Along with inviting Notre Dame, the ACC also says it has increased its exit fees for the conference's schools to three times the annual operation budget -- which would currently come to more than $50 million."

Now, that's one hell of an exit fee. Can't imagine the schools looking to go to the Big 12 voted on that. How does that happen?

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Somebody help me with these quotes from the ESPN article:

"We are able to maintain our historic independence in football, join in the ACC's non-BCS bowl package, and provide a new and extremely competitive home for our other sports."

What's a "non-BCS bowl package" if you aren't even playing football in the ACC?

"Along with inviting Notre Dame, the ACC also says it has increased its exit fees for the conference's schools to three times the annual operation budget -- which would currently come to more than $50 million."

Now, that's one hell of an exit fee. Can't imagine the schools looking to go to the Big 12 voted on that. How does that happen?

From what I've heard, granted it could be wrong, is that the $50 million buyout isn't in effect yet...That could speed up some schools in the Big 12 decision to leave or not leave

If my above statement is wrong, then I would imagine the B12 would look at UL, BYU, and others..

[outsideobserver11]

The ACC still has to worry about some of their members staying IMO.

The following teams contacted the B12, B1G, and the SEC recently:

BC
FSU
Clemson
GT
Miami
Maryland
VT

I know that FSU was dead set AGAINST ND joining as a partial member. They've been in the most serious talks with the Big12. Gotta think this could send them out sooner than expected.

Haven't found anything concrete yet, but rumors are out there that the ACC schools have also agreed to a new exit fee of over $50 million and all schools agreed. If that's the case, then I doubt any of them have plans of leaving. That would certainly put the Big 12 in an interesting position.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Haven't found anything concrete yet, but rumors are out there that the ACC schools have also agreed to a new exit fee of over $50 million and all schools agreed. If that's the case, then I doubt any of them have plans of leaving. That would certainly put the Big 12 in an interesting position.

True. If the $50 million fee is accurate and in effect, it's highly doubtful anyone is leaving the ACC anytime soon.

[BMoreX]

I've been fearing any eventual Xavier alliance with BE basketball schools would come without Gtown and Villanova; maybe even St. John's. Maybe the ACC will tack on all three.

There is just no way the ACC would add Gtown, Nova, and St. John's. Maybe one to balance ND, but that's about it.

[SM#24]

You don't see any value in adding the NYC, Phil and DC markets (I know they already have UMD) for even just a basketball package ?
I think if the $$ come out to a +, they would strongly consider it.

[paulxu]

Same deal they had with the Big East. If the ACC has a deal with the Gator Bowl, for instance, Notre Dame is eligible to steal that spot from a more deserving ACC squad.

You have to be a seriously weak conference to allow somebody who doesn't play football IN your conference to steal your conference's bowl bid.
If I was an alumus of a school who was going to the Gator Bowl, I'd be really hacked to watch ND playing in my spot.

[BMoreX]

Puts that to rest...

Andy Katz ‏@ESPNAndyKatz

Agree. RT @mcmurphyespn: ACC will not go to 16 teams in hoops, sources tell @espn. Notre Dame will be league's last addition

[SM#24]

You have to be a seriously weak conference to allow somebody who doesn't play football IN your conference to steal your conference's bowl bid.
If I was an alumus of a school who was going to the Gator Bowl, I'd be really hacked to watch ND playing in my spot.
The flipside is that having ND in the mix will allow the ACC to get better, more lucrative bowl tie-ins. Also, don't undersell the 5 ACC opponents per year. Probably two will be ACC home games and thus part of the ACC TV package.

[xubrew]

Wouldn't they want a non-football school to balance ND out?

I think 15 teams is actually easier to manage for basketball than 16 teams. For scheduling, you put all the teams into five groups of three. You play the two other teams in your group home and home, and everyone else once. That's a 16 game conference schedule, and you can protect more rivalries.

At the end of the day, I don't see what being a full ACC member in all sports but football accomplishes that being a full Big East member in all sports but football doesn't accomplish. I always thought Marquette and DePaul were traditional basketball rivals of ND. From what I understand ND railed really hard for them to get into the Big East when it bloated itself out to 16 teams for that reason. Now they're leaving to join up with....Miami and Florida State??? Oooookaaay.

[GoMuskies]

don't undersell the 5 ACC opponents per year. Probably two will be ACC home games and thus part of the ACC TV package.

They were already playing Pitt, Cuse and BC on the regular. And they play Miami this year, too. It's not as big a change as it sounds.

[SM#24]

Syracuse was part of a similar arrangement with BE. I imagine you'll still see Pitt and BC yearly, with the other 3 rotating over time.

[SM#24]

True. If the $50 million fee is accurate and in effect, it's highly doubtful anyone is leaving the ACC anytime soon.

I agree, for $50m, no one is leaving; however, I'm guessing there is some sort of short term window if anyone wants to leave now.

[GoMuskies]

Syracuse was part of a similar arrangement with BE.

I don't think that's right. ND played Cuse in '03, '05 and '08. That's before any sort of arrangement with the Big East (that led to ND losses to UConn and South Florida).

Edit to add that Syracuse is on ND's schedule already 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.

[Masterofreality]

I love the way that all the Big Greased apologists like Mike DeCoursey are now spinning it that losing Notre Dame is no big deal, especially in basketball.

Let's see, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia and Notre Dame. Nah, those are no loss.

And Louisville can't wait to get somewhere else. Meanwhile, NO ONE wants SucKS.

[xudash]

Well, well, look what the ACC dragged in.

My first reaction, getting caught up with this thread, is that I'm stunned that Jeff Goodman would have posted the idea that a basketball school would get taken into the ACC. That is totally ridiculous. Recall that I previously shared that I was told that the SEC would solve for basketball and academic prestige, because it's full-up in solid football and television money. The point is that the ACC doesn't compare to the SEC when it comes to football mix and television dollars. So, the ACC has to continue to solve for football until that point when it settles into what it used to be: a solid basketball conference with all-sports members.

Obviously, this isn't over with ND's move to the ACC; it's just getting cranked up again. Here are a few ideas for you:

Assuming the 4x16 push is firmly on the rails - WITH THE EMPHASIS BEING ON THE 4 AND NOT THE 16 - look for the following eventual departures from the ACC: UNC, Duke (SEC), V-Tech, FSU (BIG XII) and Maryland, G-Tech (B1G). Maryland and FSU voted against the $50 million exit fee, but it passed anyway: http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-09-12/sports/os-florida-state-acc-exit-fee-vote-20120912_1_exit-fee-new-fsu-fsu-athletics-director That's rather amazing. At any rate, I'll still pursue the following line of thought.

The Eventual ACC (EACC) could look like the following:

Exit Fee Trap (otherwise, get a good lawyer and argue that it's unfair trade practices or something):
- FSU
- V-Tech
- Maryland
- G-Tech
- UNC
- Duke

The Hanger's On:
- BC
- Syracuse
- Pitt
- UVA
- Wake Forest
- NC State
- Miami
- ND (5 game football limit; otherwise Basketball and Olympic Sports)

Please Take Me if Someone Else Doesn't!:
- UConn (ESPN REPORTING THAT CALHOUN IS STEPPING DOWN)
- Rutgers

Writer's note: I'm adding some comments here because I failed to confirm that the new ACC exit fee had, in fact, already been passed and put into effect. That should change things, with the ACC attempting to fight its way back to the table (I still doubt that happens).


Before looking at the BE, or what's left of its tattered carcass, let's consider some specific programs here:

UConn and Rutgers - have to pray for the above scenario if the B1G otherwise doesn't come calling. Rumor has it that the B1G is focused on bigger perceived fish as noted above: Maryland and G-Tech (bigger fish in terms of television money, with their football programs left to improve on their own). No call from Chicago means that they'll be praying for tobacco road and tailgates loaded with BBQ. This exit fee is a 50 million pound fly in someone's ointment.

UL - Louisville will absolutely shiest itself if it sees the BIG XII take FSU and V-Tech and then stop there. The Cardinals would end up having the distinction of being the most screwed athletic program in the nation as a result of realignment, given its facilities investments, etc. Perhaps the BIG XII could take Boise State and UL to balance out to 14, especially if the PAC 12 feels that it is properly configured "as-is."

UC - ends up back where it should be: not as a member of a top tier football conference. You can call Nippert charming all you want, but the television contracts do not include a criterion for "charming."

The BE? The loss of ND for the BE is significant, while the addition of ND by the ACC isn't all that, especially given that all this continuing motion and movement remains expected. The BE just could not lose that brand for television contract negotiation reasons. Now it has.

My bottom-line with this:

1. I expect to see some form of a stronger C-USA form up under the new ACC with UC, Memphis, USF, UCF, Houston, etc. as members.

2. Xavier's time in the A10 is drawing closer to an end. Even if the BE doesn't split like that, it will continue to pursue a strong hybrid model.*


* - My assumptions for #2 include the belief that the BE brand will remain with the hoops schools (that's my understanding), that the BE schools will have more financial resources than the A10 at the time action would be taken, that BE television would be better than the A10's TV deal at the time action would be taken, and that UC will be told to pound salt (assuming it objects, which probably is a safe assumption) should it happen under a hybrid scenario rather than a split scenario, because the conference will be solving to save itself instead of appeasing what will by then be a rather pedestrian member.

Isn't this fun?

BTW, it again takes me back to the BC athletic director's admission - - ESPN is playing grand puppeteer again, because it can.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

This guy called ND to the ACC weeks ago:

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn now offering to sweeten the pot for the B12-renegotiation-if we expand with 2 Big East teams. Now giving us five to choose from

[xudash]

This guy called ND to the ACC weeks ago:

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn now offering to sweeten the pot for the B12-renegotiation-if we expand with 2 Big East teams. Now giving us five to choose from

UL has to be at the top of that list.

As much as I can't stand UC, I would have to logically conclude that it is one of the five that would be considered, primarily due to the "Ohio" factor, in particular, and geographical sense in general. I presume that would pull Paul Brown Stadium back into the mix for them, because they wouldn't be able to run an entire home schedule through Nippert.

Would the Big XII go for either or both of the Florida directional schools? If so, then that's four.

Hello Boise State for number five.

And the winners are - IMHO, of course - the University of Louisville and Boise State.

[paulxu]

I wonder what would happen if ESPN conducted rules violations in places like UNC?
Heck...maybe they already do.

[outsideobserver11]

UL has to be at the top of that list.

As much as I can't stand UC, I would have to logically conclude that it is one of the five that would be considered, primarily due to the "Ohio" factor, in particular, and geographical sense in general. I presume that would pull Paul Brown Stadium back into the mix for them, because they wouldn't be able to run an entire home schedule through Nippert.

Would the Big XII go for either or both of the Florida directional schools? If so, then that's four.

Hello Boise State for number five.

And the winners are - IMHO, of course - the University of Louisville and Boise State.

they have already stated they have zero interest in Boise St for the same reason the Pac-12 gave, there academics are a shit storm. If Louisville is one of the choices which is likely, the most logical other choice is probably UC. It plays into the whole travel partner thing as well as geographically you now have 3 schools out here together. Its much easier/cheaper to send your women's tennis team out to play Louisville and UC with a bus ride than to fly them everywhere. As much as the board wants to see UC fail, even them leaving is a good thing if it means another step towards the basketball schools breaking away.

[waggy]

I wonder what would happen if ESPN conducted rules violations in places like UNC?
Heck...maybe they already do.

I don't understand what you are asking. Can you re-word or expound?

And I agree that UC leaving the BE is probably a good thing for X overall.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
5 teams espn suggesting: UL, Uconn, UC, USF, Rutgers

[Masterofreality]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
5 teams espn suggesting: UL, Uconn, UC, USF, Rutgers

U of L and UConn would be the final nail in the Big Least's football coffin.

Why Boise went there I still have no idea.

[GoMuskies]

Why Boise went there I still have no idea.

It's a million times better than the current MWC. They wouldn't have left the MWC for the Big East if the MW still included Utah, BYU and TCU. But it doesn't.

[Masterofreality]

It's a million times better than the current MWC. They wouldn't have left the MWC for the Big East if the MW still included Utah, BYU and TCU. But it doesn't.

Won't be for long.

[GoMuskies]

Won't be for long.

I hope like hell you're right about that.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

RT @MHver3: High ranking University of Maryland official: "Notre Dame deal was shoved down our throats. We're mad as hell." #NotreDame




----

Get ready. FSU is furious as well about how the ACC blindsided them with ND earlier than anticipated and, thus, the $50 mil buyout(which the ACC allowed Syracuse/Pitt to vote to get necessary votes)

[GoMuskies]

RT @MHver3: High ranking University of Maryland official: "Notre Dame deal was shoved down our throats. We're mad as hell." #NotreDame

This is completely awesome if accurate.

[xudash]

RT @MHver3: High ranking University of Maryland official: "Notre Dame deal was shoved down our throats. We're mad as hell." #NotreDame




----

Get ready. FSU is furious as well about how the ACC blindsided them with ND earlier than anticipated and, thus, the $50 mil buyout(which the ACC allowed Syracuse/Pitt to vote to get necessary votes)

WTF!

How exactly was that accomplished? Are those schools presently members of two conferences?

You can put stuff in writing that ends up in contractual agreements, but if such stuff doesn't make equitable sense, it will be susceptible to being picked apart. You have to imagine that both FSU and Maryland are performing quiet legal reviews of that vote and the validity of the exit fee.

I still can't believe certain other ACC schools went along with the exit fee vote. Even if you didn't know exactly which way all this is trending, wouldn't you hedge towards keeping your options open in a manner that keeps you "available" to one of the Big4?

I'm sure Swofford is more deeply concerned about the welfare of Wake Forest's football program than he is his job.

[DC Muskie]

WTF!

How exactly was that accomplished? Are those schools presently members of two conferences?

You can put stuff in writing that ends up in contractual agreements, but if such stuff doesn't make equitable sense, it will be susceptible to being picked apart. You have to imagine that both FSU and Maryland are performing quiet legal reviews of that vote and the validity of the exit fee.

I still can't believe certain other ACC schools went along with the exit fee vote. Even if you didn't know exactly which way all this is trending, wouldn't you hedge towards keeping your options open in a manner that keeps you "available" to one of the Big4?

I'm sure Swofford is more deeply concerned about the welfare of Wake Forest's football program than he is his job.

How many votes do you need to gain approval? A majority?

So that's 14 schools. Off the top of my head Yes for the increase:

NC State
Wake
UVA
Pitt
Syracuse
UNC
Duke
BC

Sound about right? Can't see Clempson, FSU, UM, Maryland, VT voting for it.

[xudash]

How many votes do you need to gain approval? A majority?

So that's 14 schools. Off the top of my head Yes for the increase:

NC State
Wake
UVA
Pitt
Syracuse
UNC
Duke
BC

Sound about right? Can't see Clempson, FSU, UM, Maryland, VT voting for it.

According to what was posted earlier, the "no" votes only came from FSU and Maryland. Having noted that, if I hadn't read that I would be in complete agreement with your list, while also adding UNC and Duke as "no's" based on what I had heard a few weeks ago.

IMO, voting in order of "GET THIS DONE BEFORE THIS CONFERENCE CAVES IN!!!" probably looked like:

- Pitt
- 'cuse

- WAKE
- BC
- NC STATE
- UVA

- MIAMI
- DUKE
- UNC

- CLEMSON
- V-Tech

Otherwise, the "we're planning on being out of here" contingent was as noted earlier:

- MARYLAND
- FSU

[GoMuskies]

It makes perfect sense to me that Pitt and Cuse have ACC voting rights now. Anything the ACC does affects their future, and they signed up with today's ACC. So I don't see anything wrong with that. I'd be much more surprised if they have any sort of Big East voting rights.

[DC Muskie]

I like your order Dash. I guess Clempson sees there's no way the Big 12 will bring them on board.

[GoMuskies]

I'd move UNC WAY up the list. UNC's worst nightmare is the ACC falling apart. They'd go back to the pre-FSU ACC days if it was viable.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

WTF!

How exactly was that accomplished? Are those schools presently members of two conferences?

You can put stuff in writing that ends up in contractual agreements, but if such stuff doesn't make equitable sense, it will be susceptible to being picked apart. You have to imagine that both FSU and Maryland are performing quiet legal reviews of that vote and the validity of the exit fee.

I still can't believe certain other ACC schools went along with the exit fee vote. Even if you didn't know exactly which way all this is trending, wouldn't you hedge towards keeping your options open in a manner that keeps you "available" to one of the Big4?

I'm sure Swofford is more deeply concerned about the welfare of Wake Forest's football program than he is his job.

There's some confusion on this issue. Some say they didn't vote officially but were directly involved in negotiations.

http://blog.syracuse.com/sports/2012/09/syracuse_ad_daryl_gross_reacts.html

Some say they voted...

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?S=159&F=4582&T=9345287&P=1

I'm with you. They aren't even members yet. Maybe the ACC voted to add them as future members that day officially so they could vote and get the necessary votes for ND/the buyout?


How many votes do you need to gain approval? A majority?

So that's 14 schools. Off the top of my head Yes for the increase:

NC State
Wake
UVA
Pitt
Syracuse
UNC
Duke
BC

Sound about right? Can't see Clempson, FSU, UM, Maryland, VT voting for it.

There's all sorts of info going around about the votes involving Maryland, NC State, VT, FSU, and NC State. As for the exact combination, it depends on the source. All of those schools are not happy in one way or another about the buyout fee that took place immediately (allegedly according to the rumors)

[xudash]

It makes perfect sense to me that Pitt and Cuse have ACC voting rights now. Anything the ACC does affects their future, and they signed up with today's ACC. So I don't see anything wrong with that. I'd be much more surprised if they have any sort of Big East voting rights.

That's a fair way to look at it, but I can see it the other way as well. Consider the reps and warrants that were provided to these schools by the ACC's conference office in consideration for their acceptances of their respective invitations:

- Our current membership is "as-is" and we know of no plans on the part of any of our members to pursue an exit from the conference.

- We have no way of knowing if we will be able to pursue agreements or actions that will enable us to keep the existing membership together.

Who knows what kind of agreement is governing these acceptances and the transitional process through which these schools will ultimately find their way to the ACC.

Beyond that, using your logic, the BE affects their future, too, to the extent that they continue to remain in the BE, during the transition period. If they have voting rights in one, how can they be denied voting rights in the other?

[GoMuskies]

If they have Big East voting rights, I'm sure they're very limited. And they'd be idiots to sign an agreement with the ACC that had no interim period covenants to ensure that the ACC doesn't do certain things between now and their membership date without their approval (or without at least having their 1/14th say).

[xudash]

I'd move UNC WAY up the list. UNC's worst nightmare is the ACC falling apart. They'd go back to the pre-FSU ACC days if it was viable.

If someone actually has managed to whisper into UNC's ear that it is destined for an SEC invite, I doubt they would be pegged closer to the top of that list. If they haven't received such inklings, then I couldn't agree with you more.

Then again, at the rate bad news keeps coming out of Chapel Hill, the next report could be about child trafficking, which, of course, the NCAA would feel compelled to take decisive action by terminating Davidson's athletic programs.

[GoMuskies]

UNC knows they're safe no matter what happens. But they'd have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the SEC. I'm sure they'd much rather lock up FSU, Maryland and anyone else considering "going rogue" from the ACC than face the possibility of being dragged into affiliation with the SEC mouthbreathers (UNC's perspective, not mine).

[xudash]

If they have Big East voting rights, I'm sure they're very limited. And they'd be idiots to sign an agreement with the ACC that had no interim period covenants to ensure that the ACC doesn't do certain things between now and their membership date without their approval (or without at least having their 1/14th say).

That isn't hard to do, as the interests of the CONFERENCE and these two schools are probably in complete alignment - mutual, bound survival.

That isn't the problem. The problem is that certain members of the conference most likely are not aligned with the goals and objectives of the conference. That's beyond clear at this point, given this exit fee fiasco. I doubt FSU and Maryland, as just two examples, are happy with the idea that a Pitt or Syracuse may be allowed to have an affect on their efforts and actions as they manage their respective futures.

I'm not picking at you GoM. Who knows how all this is being papered and managed. I get that Pitt and Syracuse want a transitional process that provides for something less than a 100% fate level. So, again, who knows what goes on behind all these wood paneled doors.

Here's what I really don't understand. It makes perfect sense to me that the Big4 are working all this towards the mutual benefit of the Big4. After all, if you're going to knock out one of six former so-called BCS AQ conferences, why not go for two to really reduce the denominator? In fact, from the Big4's point of view, notwithstanding the fact that everyone knows the Big4 has suspect members (e.g. Northwestern, Vanderbilt), that cartel accepts those that have already made the train, while probably taking the firm position that schools like Wake, BC, UConn, USF, etc. simply don't belong. So what I really don't understand is what the ACC is attempting to solve. Four......plus one (ACC).....then a dead or mostly dead BE......then whatever.

What is that if the ACC does not have a chance at the four team play-off format?

Why would the Orange Bowl structure itself into mediocrity?

And my last thought: I couldn't be happier about all this crap taking place right now to get my mind off the angst level that resides on and around Victory Parkway right now.

[paulxu]

- Our current membership is "as-is" and we know of no plans on the part of any of our members to pursue an exit from the conference.

Because none of us ever watches TV or reads the sports news about members talking to other conferences, because we're complete idiots.


"going rogue" from the ACC than face the possibility of being dragged into affiliation with the SEC mouthbreathers (UNC's perspective, not mine).

Hah! Come on over you ...ssies. We're waiting.

If I was FSU or Maryland I'd test this baby out in a hurry. I don't remember the BE's exit fees holding up recently.

[paulxu]

The flipside is that having ND in the mix will allow the ACC to get better, more lucrative bowl tie-ins..

I think once they get to the 4 team playoff, just about every other bowl left (all 28 of the or whatever number it is) will be money losers.
If the Bengals don't make the playoffs, you want to travel to Seattle to see them play in the Art Modell Classic?

[DC Muskie]

There would never be an Art Modell Classic.

I would see to it.

[GoMuskies]

I doubt FSU and Maryland, as just two examples, are happy with the idea that a Pitt or Syracuse may be allowed to have an affect on their efforts and actions as they manage their respective futures.

I'm sure that's true. But it would make absolutely no sense for Pitt and Cuse to sign up as members of a league but have no power in the interim between sign and close. It would never happen. FSU and Maryland probably hate that Wake and UNC and Duke have an affect on their futures as well. But that's the predicament they're in.

[xudash]

STOP THE PRESSES, or at least this discussion, the way we've been conducting it.

I just had another interesting conversation. I didn't make the call, nor did I initiate the sports portion of this chat. The conversation was with a connected person. It took place for business reasons, but it sort of dovetailed into the sports download.

Here you go.......

We haven't quite been looking at this realignment process the right way. Think about how we've been looking at it. What foundational premise has driven and continues to drive our thinking on the realignment process and all the shuffling that has taken place or is expected to take place from here?

That premise is about conferences solving for all-sports membership.

Consider forgetting about that. Throw that out. What happens when you do? You should arrive at seeing the following outcome:

1. It has been and continues to be about solving for football. All of this is about solving for football to maximize money and exposure.

2. The Big4 are driving that process. Period. End of story.

3. The 4 x 16 model is expected to come to fruition (certainly consistent with what I heard a few weeks ago); they'll make it work financially.

4. How do you get past a $50 million exit fee? - - you only take football out of the ACC, leaving everything else in the conference.

5. Take FSU: stays in the ACC for everything else and takes football to the Big XII. No exit fee. Football arrives at a safe place.

6. It gets better. The 4 x 16 take football out from under NCAA governance, forming their own (BCS) separate thing.

7. The NCAA? It retains governance and financial control of basketball and all other sports, losing football entirely.

8. The BE? Yeah, right. If the 4 x 16 do break away from the NCAA, the BE will most likely finally split.

9. The ACC? It returns to its days as a hoops conference, with some members in a dangling football predicament.

The main differential message was about the 4 x 16 breaking away for football. That really made everything else make sense. I certainly could see where schools like FSU, V-Tech, etc. would prefer to be in an all-sports arrangement, but this all looks logical to me as an ultimate outcome, assuming 4 x 16 is the direction and that football is so dominant in all this that it will transcend the NCAA and existing conference affiliations.

[paulxu]

So much for the SEC taking Duke and UNC to get to 16. Why would you want Duke football?
And if you got enough $ already, and take them in all sports to get the basketball...the ACC basketball re-alignment will look crappy.

[xudash]

So much for the SEC taking Duke and UNC to get to 16. Why would you want Duke football?
And if you got enough $ already, and take them in all sports to get the basketball...the ACC basketball re-alignment will look crappy.

Paul,

I think the logic still holds. The SEC, as it exists today, already is in the inner-sanctum for football, and it would be hard pressed to improve upon its existing stature or composition for football and for football money.

So what's left to do, after moving to some new football organization? Pull in the best basketball schools to milk the NCAA on the basketball side of things.

That was a nice idea until $50 million dollars ago.

[DC Muskie]

What happens to ND in a 4 x 16 set up?

[Masterofreality]

What happens to ND in a 4 x 16 set up?

They're the play-in game.

[xudash]

What happens to ND in a 4 x 16 set up?

My guess is that they would leave their other sports in the ACC and take football to one of the Big4 conferences, just as FSU, V-Tech, etc. would. I presume either the B1G or the Big XII would provide a landing pad for them.

Assuming all this becomes real, there is no way they'll be capable of remaining independent while also having a shot at the play-off system. The Big4 won't carve out any kind of spot for them as an independent.

Recall there were early rumors when all this cranked up again that football would break away from the NCAA. A lot of people panicked because they thought it meant all sports - basketball, in particular. It becomes obvious yet again that all this is first and foremost about football.

The slow march to the 4 x 16 structure could be what we're witnessing now, on an incremental basis. If it is to be 4 x 16, that means each of the 4 has 2 x 8. There is no way around that structure. ND finally learns that it's just another football program for these purposes.

Ten years from now, we'll consider how novel it was to have 6 so-called BCS AQ conferences. We'll hopefully laugh about the days of majors versus mid-majors, especially if football splits off from the NCAA.

[LA Muskie]

This $50 mil thing is getting a lot of press, but I can't imagine a conference could unilaterally vote (by majority or even super-majority) to immediately increase the exit fee. At a minimum, I'd have to think dissenters would have a limited period of time to disassociate to avoid the increased exit fee. And that's what my guess is -- that this is all about fishing or cutting bait.

"Hey Maryland and FSU...you think you'd be better off in the Big XII? Well you better as hell hope they want you, because you're now on the clock -- you've got 90 days (or whatever) to make a move..."

[LA Muskie]

4. How do you get past a $50 million exit fee? - - you only take football out of the ACC, leaving everything else in the conference.

6. It gets better. The 4 x 16 take football out from under NCAA governance, forming their own (BCS) separate thing.

#4: I can't fathom that the exit fee would not apply if football left. Football is the cash cow, and everyone knows that. It'd be the loophole of all loopholes.

#6: I don't disagree things are headed in this direction, but I think we're still a paradigm shift away.

[paulxu]

Can we take Louisville and forget UNC?

[GoMuskies]

Can we take Louisville and forget UNC?

Louisville sucks. UNC is just a little bit worse.

[GoMuskies]

Miami Hurricanes football. Catch the fever!

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg707/scaled.php?server=707&filename=656617525.jpg&res=landing

[paulxu]

Louisville sucks. UNC is just a little bit worse.

Crimeny, you all most lost that one.

[xudash]

Miami Hurricanes football. Catch the fever!

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg707/scaled.php?server=707&filename=656617525.jpg&res=landing

Seriously, you don't hear them mentioned much when it comes to realignment and that I think primarily is due to all those empty seats in your picture.

Their image in the 80's was really only cool to them, for the most part.

[SM#24]

Bob Molinaro of the Virginian Pilot:
"This week we learned that Notre Dame will compete in the ACC in all sports except football - just like Duke."

[GoMuskies]

Maryland did a touch better for the "Edsall Bowl".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A22TsC6CUAEhnS1.jpg

[XUglow]

Maryland did a touch better for the "Edsall Bowl".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A22TsC6CUAEhnS1.jpg

South Florida looked pretty similar. I remember when they were going to be the next big thing to come from FL.

[Masterofreality]

Interesting stuff from Andy Katz today on Xavier as well as the Big Least:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/64069/3-point-shot-filling-jim-calhouns-shoes

I would say that it is a stretch, however, that Louisville and Connecticut will stay in the Big Greased fold. I would further say that they would both leave in a New York second if given an invite elsewhere.

Anyone thinking otherwise is whistling in the dark.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Rutgers, Uconn, and Louisville all 3 have contacted the Big12 offices today.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Deloss and Bowlsby possibly giving in the Espns offer...numbers are flying

[waggy]

The B12 would rather get ACC teams I'm sure.

[paulxu]

This is a nice overview, although the outlook for Louisville isn't so good, and he thinks the conference number stays at 5 big ones.

http://dallas.sbnation.com/smu-mustangs/2012/9/19/3355378/big-east-realignment-notre-dame-acc-rumors

[GoMuskies]

the conference number stays at 5 big ones.

This continues to baffle me. If we were ending up with 4 "new BCS" leagues with the Big East and ACC on the outside looking in, I would understand that. But for the ACC to somehow keep their perception that they're a better league than the Big East despite all objective evidence to the contrary is crazy to me. I understand that people think the ceiling is higher for FSU, Miam and Clempson than it is for the Big East programs, but at a certain point you are what you are. And the ACC is a helluva lot more like the Big East than it is like any of the other BCS leagues.

[xudash]

This is a nice overview, although the outlook for Louisville isn't so good, and he thinks the conference number stays at 5 big ones.

http://dallas.sbnation.com/smu-mustangs/2012/9/19/3355378/big-east-realignment-notre-dame-acc-rumors

I guess if you go back to the follow the money thought process, the driver in all this remains the calculated/perceived value of these various combinations on the part of the television executives who will be stroking the checks for all this. Could there be more money in a redefined 16 team Big XII than what currently exists in the 10 team version of it?

[DC Muskie]

This continues to baffle me. If we were ending up with 4 "new BCS" leagues with the Big East and ACC on the outside looking in, I would understand that. But for the ACC to somehow keep their perception that they're a better league than the Big East despite all objective evidence to the contrary is crazy to me. I understand that people think the ceiling is higher for FSU, Miam and Clempson than it is for the Big East programs, but at a certain point you are what you are. And the ACC is a helluva lot more like the Big East than it is like any of the other BCS leagues.

I imagine it has everything to do with size and location.

ACC have bigger schools in the south. Ergo, better conference. Regardless of what happens on the field.

My buddy and I were joking about the attendance at the Maryland game last week. Stephon Diggs, their best player who is a top flight recruit, played his football at Good Counsel High School. No doubt Diggs played in front of bigger crowds in high school than the one he experienced on Saturday.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
ESPN andFox know that a 14 team B12 can get them an SEC scheduling alliance...offering to increase overall package(incl FOX) to $23mil

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
dont know if it is less than that for 12 yet...

18 Sep MHver3 MHver3 ‏@MHver3
that amount includes revenue for championship game and assuming they go to 14.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@mdmost what u consider trash, espn and now even fox are seeing as treasure?They dont want NBC to become a player in an already crowded mkt

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@BaylorFight Clemson is NOT happening...et tu brute'

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@BaylorFight FSU not looking good...
MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@bazelwood don't know the consensus yet but Luck is ok with UL and USF/RU

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Well guys it was fun while it lasted. Florida State tells the B12 "it's over" Details when I get em.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
The door was left open for the future. They know what's in store for them.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Apparently FSU AD had a 2 hour phone conversation with Bowlsby last night.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Laments were made etc. ultimately this decision came down from the administration. Namely the president.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Athletic dept from AD down to waterboy was 100% in favor of the move. Even with the new buyout.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn pushing hard for fourteen. The extra inventory could all go to espn to replace BE inventory they stand to lose.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn could pay the BE nearly 200 mil for all their sports rights or they could add the four teams/markets they want to B12 and pay half

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
And in possibly related news, Big12 expansion committee calling for first meeting in several months.


----

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
I've heard the figures currently on the table for the BigEast from espn are laughable. Could affect what NBC offers.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Has several BE schools at defcon 2

-----

[xudash]

JTT37, I love your contributions to this thread. If I'm reading you right, $200 million in television rights for the Big East would be devastating.

[waggy]

$200 million in television rights for the Big East would be devastating.

Devastating to who?

FYI it's approximately $200 million more than the A10.

[paulxu]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@bazelwood don't know the consensus yet but Luck is ok with UL and USF/RU

Somewhere near Wichita, a Muskie pops a cold one.

[Masterofreality]

The MAC,

2-0 vs the Big Least today.

Just sayin'.....

[GoMuskies]

The SEC was 0-1 against the Big East today and is now 0-2 for the season.

[Masterofreality]

The SEC was 0-1 against the Big East today and is now 0-2 for the season.

Not sure I can call a team coached by John L Smith an SEC team.

Hell, they lost to Louisiana Monroe too.

Big Least football stinks.

[GoMuskies]

Yes, two SEC teams likely to finish in the SEC basement losing to two Big East teams likely to finish in the top half of the Big East is about as meaningless as two MAC teams likely to finish at the top of the MAC beating two Big East teams likely to finish in the bottom half of the Big East.

[GoMuskies]

Pretty sweet week for the MAC all in all. In addition to the two wins over USF and UConn that have MOR giddy, Central Michigan won at Iowa, and NIU beat Kansas. EMU led Michigan State at halftime even. It may have been the greatest week in MAC football history.

[Masterofreality]

Yes, two SEC teams likely to finish in the SEC basement losing to two Big East teams likely to finish in the top half of the Big East is about as meaningless as two MAC teams likely to finish at the top of the MAC beating two Big East teams likely to finish in the bottom half of the Big East.

Not really. Ohio U is the best team in the MAC. Basically, it was middling MAC teams beating middling Big Least teams. For an alleged BCS conference, that is an abject embarrassment losing games to a league that has always been on the outside looking in.

Oh, and how about that great Big Least addition of the Temple Owls? I wonder if the Big Greased will kick them out of the league again when they stink it up in a couple of years?

[GoMuskies]

Yeah, the Big Ten and Big XII should be hanging their heads in shame today.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

JTT37, I love your contributions to this thread. If I'm reading you right, $200 million in television rights for the Big East would be devastating.


Thanks Dash. Right back at you. As far as the $200 mil, I have no idea if that's accurate. But this guy does have some credibility for getting ND to the ACC right in my book when everyone else had them going to the Big 12

Rutgers is the focus of the new crazy rumors from the message boards/twitter. Big 12, Big 10...Take your pic

"Rutgers Athletic Director, Tim Pernetti, reportedly told a small gathering of Rutgers high level donors, that Rutgers was positioning itself for a Big 10 invite that WILL come. Optimistic would be an understatement. It was not a question of if, but when. He broke down conference expansion, BE structure, current landscape, facilities, and what the future holds for Rutgers."

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=589813


MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Rutgers shining moment couldn't have come at a better time. B12 was extremely impressed with the Knights performance this weekend.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Certain programs in an "eastern" conference were given an outline of things they must commit to/improve on to even be considered for B12

---
John R. ‏@Ruknighttime
@MHver3 The RuFootball Arkansas metered market rating did 0.9 NYC market, No. 1 college football rating ever on ESPNU in NYC
Expand

24 Sep MHver3 MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@Ruknighttime Bowlsby already been made aware of this.

---
MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Alot of eyes on Rutgers in the next few weeks. If ratings keep climbing other conferences may take note.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
A shared Tier 3 package with UL bball and Rutgers Ny market and us of course could top Recent similar deals in conference.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Believe it or not Luck is helping RU at every turn.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Been hearing some rumblings that Uconn may join ACC in Olympic only and have a similar football scheduling deal that ND has. Indy in FB

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@jmnpb if this happens look for GTWN and Nova to follow suit. Or at least try their damnedest.

---

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn telling B12 that Rutgers\Ville adds more value to the conference than 2 former members did and 4 current members

---

Jason Baum‏ @ JasonBaumRU
The # RFootball-Arkansas metered market rating did a 0.9 in the NYC market, the No. 1 college football rating ever on ESPNU in NYC

---
Kind of off topic but:

ND is ending the Michigan rivalry to make room for the ACC teams
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8423552/notre-dame-fighting-irish-opts-series-michigan-wolverines

--

[X-band '01]

Thanks Dash. Right back at you. As far as the $200 mil, I have no idea if that's accurate. But this guy does have some credibility for getting ND to the ACC right in my book when everyone else had them going to the Big 12

Rutgers is the focus of the new crazy rumors from the message boards/twitter. Big 12, Big 10...Take your pic

"Rutgers Athletic Director, Tim Pernetti, reportedly told a small gathering of Rutgers high level donors, that Rutgers was prostituting itself for a Big 10 invite that WILL come. Optimistic would be an understatement. It was not a question of if, but when. He broke down conference expansion, BE structure, current landscape, facilities, and what the future holds for Rutgers."

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=589813


MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Rutgers shining moment couldn't have come at a better time. B12 was extremely impressed with the Knights performance this weekend.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Certain programs in an "eastern" conference were given an outline of things they must commit to/improve on to even be considered for B12

---
John R. ‏@Ruknighttime
@MHver3 The RuFootball Arkansas metered market rating did 0.9 NYC market, No. 1 college football rating ever on ESPNU in NYC
Expand

24 Sep MHver3 MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@Ruknighttime Bowlsby already been made aware of this.

---
MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Alot of eyes on Rutgers in the next few weeks. If ratings keep climbing other conferences may take note.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
A shared Tier 3 package with UL bball and Rutgers Ny market and us of course could top Recent similar deals in conference.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Believe it or not Luck is helping RU at every turn.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Been hearing some rumblings that Uconn may join ACC in Olympic only and have a similar football scheduling deal that ND has. Indy in FB

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@jmnpb if this happens look for GTWN and Nova to follow suit. Or at least try their damnedest.

---

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn telling B12 that Rutgers\Ville adds more value to the conference than 2 former members did and 4 current members

---

Jason Baum‏ @ JasonBaumRU
The # RFootball-Arkansas metered market rating did a 0.9 in the NYC market, the No. 1 college football rating ever on ESPNU in NYC

---
Kind of off topic but:

ND is ending the Michigan rivalry to make room for the ACC teams
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8423552/notre-dame-fighting-irish-opts-series-michigan-wolverines

--

Fixed that for you.

[paulxu]

This place averages polls and rankings pundits (75 of them).
There are about 72 BCS teams with ND. So, in the top 20, you would think there would be roughly 3 or 4 teams from each conference.
Actual results of this average rankings so far:

Big 12........6
SEC...........5 (All 5 in the Top Ten which is crazy)
Pac 12........4
Big Ten.......2
ACC............2
BE..............0
Independent..1 (ND)

The Big 10 and ACC are working hard on becoming irrelevent. The BE already is, with their highest rated team (Louisville) at #28.

I wish they'd just hurry up and do your merger thing Dash. This is getting embarrassing.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

[xudash]

This place averages polls and rankings pundits (75 of them).
There are about 72 BCS teams with ND. So, in the top 20, you would think there would be roughly 3 or 4 teams from each conference.
Actual results of this average rankings so far:

Big 12........6
SEC...........5 (All 5 in the Top Ten which is crazy)
Pac 12........4
Big Ten.......2
ACC............2
BE..............0
Independent..1 (ND)

The Big 10 and ACC are working hard on becoming irrelevent. The BE already is, with their highest rated team (Louisville) at #28.

I wish they'd just hurry up and do your merger thing Dash. This is getting embarrassing.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Paul,

I still think the (2 x 8) x 4 model makes so much sense it's scary. The symmetry of it speaks for itself. It would truly keep the regular season relevant while providing a playoff picture that is much better than the current "pick 2" arrangement.

However, what I heard in the room that night about follow the money took place before Swofford did his deal. Does that alone thwart moving in the 4 x 16 direction. Hardly, but it makes getting there that much more interesting.

Did he trap his ACC membership into certain death? Again, no, assuming that the 4 x 16 completely breaks from the NCAA for football only, forming entirely new football conferences with regional naming, while leaving the existing conferences intact for basketball and Olympic Sports. It would seem like it would have to happen that way now, because tangling with a $50 million exit fee won't be fun for anyone.

Otherwise, if they try to do it through the SEC, B1G, Pac XX and Big XX, that sounds like attorneys fees to me to bust the exit fee or settle it to a lower number. JTT37's tweet stream may lead to revealing more to us sooner than later. I do continue to believe one very important thing that I heard that night: Delaney, Slive and Scott and now Bowlsby are making very "down the road" decisions; they're setting this thing up in a way where they won't have to deal with it again on their watches. This plus-decade deal will finally define the haves and have nots. I have to imagine they share something in common with FSU and probably a few other schools: they're all equally pissed at Swofford.

I assume your statement about the B1G becoming irrelevant is based on this year's on field performance. Otherwise, the B1G is as powerful or more powerful than the SEC economically. That won't change. The on field results will most likely cycle their way back up soon enough. I still view the SEC as being dominant, though I'm beginning to hear a number of analysts - with or without agendas - mention that its overrated.

[xudash]

BTW, thanks for getting me out of Snipe's political threads. I have to learn to stay out of political threads. Very upsetting.

[GoMuskies]

I'm no John Feinstein fan, but you can imagine that I enjoyed this article: http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2759&t=9592186

[Masterofreality]

I'm no John Feinstein fan, but you can imagine that I enjoyed this article: http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2759&t=9592186

Meanwhile, the Sagarin Ratings, which are probably the most accurate computer rankings around, have two ACC teams in its Top 25 and NO Big Least teams. There is only one Big Greased Team in the Top 30- SucKS- and it has the 129th rated schedule. Rutgers comes in next at 33.

What a powerhouse.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

[GoMuskies]

As always, the ACC is virtually indistinguishable from the Big East. There is either a Big Six, or there is a Big Four. Pretending there is a Big Five is a Big Farce.

From the Sagarin link by conference (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc12.htm):

ACC nudges out the Big East 72.57 to 72.07 (you'll note that Syracuse and Pitt are the two lowest rated Big East teams).

The #4 rated Big Ten is at 75.67, while the #7 Mountain West is at 65.05 (with next year's Big East member Boise State at #13 the only top 40 team).

The Big East and ACC are basically identical. Both are a major step below the "non-BCS" leagues, and both are a major step below the other four "BCS" leagues. It's just hysterical that the ACC is treated as if it's somehow a much better league.

Finally, here's a nice little mini-league of former Big East members stolen by the ACC. Knock yourselves out fellas:

40 VaTech
62 Miami (FL)
76 Pitt
78 Boston College
80 Syracuse

[paulxu]

There is only one Big Greased Team in the Top 30- SucKS- and it has the 129th rated schedule.

This sounds a lot like their basketball team.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

"More Conference Realignment Coming?"

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/chi-more-conference-realignment-consternation-to-come-20121008,0,6682955.story

[rationalbearcatfan]

This sounds a lot like their basketball team.

Just a quick rebuttal:

Using sagarin ratings (as masterofreality says is the best around, and I agree), UC's schedule has been rated higher 9 of the last 10 years. Ten year average for UC is 39.6. Xavier's ten year average is 75.6.

[paulxu]

Just a quick rebuttal:

Using sagarin ratings (as masterofreality says is the best around, and I agree), UC's schedule has been rated higher 9 of the last 10 years. Ten year average for UC is 39.6. Xavier's ten year average is 75.6.

You can't control the impact of scheduling on your rating for conference games.
You can for OOC games.
I'm going to assume your ratings are for total games. Try looking at the OOC portion.

[rationalbearcatfan]

You can't control the impact of scheduling on your rating for conference games.
You can for OOC games.
I'm going to assume your ratings are for total games. Try looking at the OOC portion.

Obviously I wasn't speaking of OOC SOS. There is no denying that UC's OOC schedule is softer than XU's. But there's no debating that UC's IC SOS is vastly superior to XU's. The opinion I argued against was not referncing OOC vs IC, and neither was I in my rebuttal. Overall, UC's schedule is tougher than XU's, usually by a fairly substantial margin.

[bleedXblue]

Obviously I wasn't speaking of OOC SOS. There is no denying that UC's OOC schedule is softer than XU's. But there's no debating that UC's IC SOS is vastly superior to XU's. The opinion I argued against was not referncing OOC vs IC, and neither was I in my rebuttal. Overall, UC's schedule is tougher than XU's, usually by a fairly substantial margin.

And in the end , that means nothing as we've advanced to multiple Sweet 16's and Elite 8's over the last 10 years and have won a vast majority of our head to head macthups the last 15 years.

Just b/c you play in a good conference and as a result benefit from some of the teams that have done well in that conference, doesnt make you a good program or a good team.

Mick schedules cup cakes in the OOC, it's embarassing for uC fans.

What's classic is he then complains that no one is going to the games.......who the hell wants to watch the garbage he schedules ?

[rationalbearcatfan]

And in the end , that means nothing as we've advanced to multiple Sweet 16's and Elite 8's over the last 10 years and have won a vast majority of our head to head macthups the last 15 years.

Just b/c you play in a good conference and as a result benefit from some of the teams that have done well in that conference, doesnt make you a good program or a good team.

Mick schedules cup cakes in the OOC, it's embarassing for uC fans.

What's classic is he then complains that no one is going to the games.......who the hell wants to watch the garbage he schedules ?

Again, I'm not arguing any other point other than overall SOS. You can say that Xavier has had a more successful recent decade than UC has had, and you would be correct on several, if not most, points. I never said I loved Mick, loved his scheduling, or loved his attitude. That was not the point either. I was merely refuting the common misconception that UC's SOS is weak compared to Xavier's.

Just to add more data to support my comments, even prior to the Big East, UC had a better overall SOS, also by a wide margin. Comparing 1998-2004, UC's last 7 years in CUSA, UC had an even wider SOS margin over XU (UC: 46.6 / XU: 87.9) than it has had in its first 7 years in the BE. You can't use the "significantly better conference" argument for those years as CUSA and A10 were much closer in level of competition at that time.

I'm not here to argue who has a better basketball program, head-coach, or university. Obviously those are matters of opinion where we will most likely never agree. I was just merely commenting on popular myths regarding UC's SOS that I hear constantly, but that has little basis in fact.

[xubrew]

That's according to Sagarin. That's not how the NCAA figures strength of schedule. I'm not saying you are saying they use the sagarin, but it is worth pointing out that they don't, at least not on the team sheets.

The formula the NCAA uses has Xavier's overall schedule (both conference and OOC combined) as being higher than UC's. By quite a bit, actually. UC's was tougher the two previous years, but barely.

Arguing computer rankings is kind of a pointless exercise. For instance, in the case of Sagarin, the formula isn't made public, and even if it was the vast majority of sports fans wouldn't have the strong mathematical background one needs to understand it. Colley's formula is public, yet not many people know how to replicate it.

I believe Sagarin's is derived from Arpad Elo's chess rating. Not that i know a damn thing about chess, but in turning back the clock to some of my stats 101 days, a major component of it is to find the mean of how well a player plays. Since a player can play well one day, and poorly another, how well a player performs on a given day is categorized as a randomly distributed variable. Randomly distrubied variables, by definition, cannot be accurately measured. So, if I understand what I think I do about Sagarin, the basis of his whole ratings sytem (which i think he even labels as elo chess) is something that cannot be accurately measured.

How reliable is it really?? What makes Sagarin so much better than anyone else's?? I think the computer rankings are somewhat interesting, but I don't put much stock into them, and don't really think anyone else should either, especially since they have no way of knowing exactly how the rankings are computed.

In reality, the main reason fans prefer one ranking system over another is because that particular ranking system is the one that ranks their team the highest.

[rationalbearcatfan]

XUBREW: I can agree with some of our points, except:

1. That fans use one ranking system over another based on which favors their team. That may be true for biased "homers", but there are is a large contingent of educated sports fans who are objective enough to consider all factors before blindly following one poll or another. I myself have used sagarin for quite awhile as my favored ranking system even though it regularly places my favorite teams below other polls. I prefer it because it seems to match my semi-objective opinions the closest, and seems to be rooted in the more accurate mathematical models. Whether the unofficial descriptions of the premises behind the formula is accurate or not, I just have faith that it is. And to argue the elo-chess technicalities, I am too far removed from my math-major days to even speak on the subject intelligently at this point. Beer seems to have had some detrimental effects on the memory of college classes. And since the end of the beer days, work and children seem to have replaced the remainder of that portion of my brain.

2. If you are referring to the RPI which the ncaa selection committee may or may not rely on as a "guideline", please don't reference it as a valid ranking system. The RPI is a joke. I'm not saying there aren't other computer polls that have XU's SOS higher than UC's, but I wouldn't use RPI as data to backup an arguement. The RPI is an overly simplistic, flawed formula.

[xubrew]

The SOS formula the NCAA uses isn't identical to the RPI, but it is every bit as basic. The RPI is a rating, not a ranking. It's a general indicator of relative strength that is slightly less general than looking at a team's win/loss record. Nothing more. Nothing less.

The SOS formula on the team sheets is 2/3rds your opponents record, and 1/3rd your opponents opponents' record.

[paulxu]

You know, I would never pretend to understand the ins and outs of the math involved in ratings/rankings.
So, can anyone answer a simple question.

You CAN control your OOC schedule. You CAN NOT control your conference schedule.

For what you CAN control (your OOC) is there any poll/ranking/rating/stat or whatever that says UC's controllable OOC is stronger than XU's? Any?

[xudash]

You know, I would never pretend to understand the ins and outs of the math involved in ratings/rankings.
So, can anyone answer a simple question.

You CAN control your OOC schedule. You CAN NOT control your conference schedule.

For what you CAN control (your OOC) is there any poll/ranking/rating/stat or whatever that says UC's controllable OOC is stronger than XU's? Any?

No.

[paulxu]

No.

Thanks for that. You were on the edge of TMI there, but you held it in nicely.

[xudash]

Thanks for that. You were on the edge of TMI there, but you held it in nicely.

Thank you.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

"Wisconsin AD Alvarez Advocates Super League"

http://www.journalstandard.com/sports/x684456902/Big-Ten-Notes-Wisconsin-AD-Alvarez-advocates-super-league

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Firm controlling BigEast tv negotiations advising BE officials to take the contract to the open market

[xudash]

"Wisconsin AD Alvarez Advocates Super League"

http://www.journalstandard.com/sports/x684456902/Big-Ten-Notes-Wisconsin-AD-Alvarez-advocates-super-league

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Firm controlling BigEast tv negotiations advising BE officials to take the contract to the open market

Well, at least we can glean some definitive direction from the following (or not):

Even Alvarez asked, will that ever happen?

“I don’t know,’’ he said. “I doubt it, but maybe.’’

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
News has been slow lately but big things are brewing. I'm gonna update my expansion alert level from yellow to orange. Big Ten eyeing 4

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
BigEast decision on staying with espn or seeking greener pastures could very well start the festivities.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
The B10 will make waves. Not a splash. 4 separate states south of the mason Dixon.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Sources saying their is mutual interest among the four schools who have been contacted via back channels.

[GoMuskies]

I assume these are ACC teams, since no one other than the ACC and Big East teams are in play. And no one desireable to the Big Ten south of the Mason Dixon is in the Big East.

I'll go:

North Carolina
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Virginia

[paulxu]

That guy needs to get to Red Alert status so Dash can have a drink with his friend.

[paulxu]

I assume these are ACC teams, since no one other than the ACC and Big East teams are in play. And no one desireable to the Big Ten south of the Mason Dixon is in the Big East.

I'll go:

North Carolina
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Virginia

That might get the SEC off it's mark to do the scenario Dash described for UNC/Duke.
Leaving who? Clemson for the Big 10? WTF.
Something is wacky in all of this. Yes, going to 16, but meanwhile, if the ACC gets raided, ND will look really stupid. Not that I care.

[GoMuskies]

I cannot imagine the scenario that has UNC picking the SEC over the Big Ten if they had to leave the ACC.

[waggy]

Any chance Kentucky would be interested in the B1G? Or vice versa? Goofy I know, but is intriguing to me for some reason. The football program would do better in the B1G.

[xudash]

I cannot imagine the scenario that has UNC picking the SEC over the Big Ten if they had to leave the ACC.

Someone somewhere probably said the same thing about WVU ending up in the Big XII at some point.

If you vote a $50 million exit fee in, can you vote it back out? The ACC apparently votes on a majority basis, given what we know about the original voting for the exit fee. Chasing this thought further, that suggests you need 7 out of 12 schools. Yet, assuming the B1G would be after 4 and the SEC would be after 2, the other six won't go down quietly. The answer? Total collusion. Slive and Delaney get Bowlsby on the phone, committing him to pick a couple. Pure insanity, I know, but everything to this point almost qualifies for that anyway. The ACC teams call a meeting and vote out the exit fee, with some of them going to their respective board rooms to wait for their respective calls, while the others find a bar close to their campuses so that they may drown their sorrows with multiple beers and shots - they convince themselves that The University of Cincinnati would be a wonderful conference partner (I did suggest MULTIPLE beers and shots).

Otherwise, they get many attorneys involved and come to settlements.

Paul, if all this goes to red, I promise you I'll be picking up the phone. He won't know absolutely at this point about all of it, because there are so many moving parts, but he'll know what the B1G and SEC intend to do.

[paulxu]

I cannot imagine the scenario that has UNC picking the SEC over the Big Ten if they had to leave the ACC.

$$$$$

[GoMuskies]

A Big Ten that included NC would have no shortage of $$$$ pouring out of it. UNC doesn't want to soil itself by associating with the likes of SEC schools.

[DC Muskie]

I assume these are ACC teams, since no one other than the ACC and Big East teams are in play. And no one desireable to the Big Ten south of the Mason Dixon is in the Big East.

I'll go:

North Carolina
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Virginia

I'd subtract Florida State with Maryland. The Big Ten would love access to the DC metro.

[GoMuskies]

I'd subtract Florida State with Maryland. The Big Ten would love access to the DC metro.

Yeah, but subtracting FSU and adding Maryland would make their football absolutely abysmal.

[DC Muskie]

Yeah, but subtracting FSU and adding Maryland would make their football absolutely abysmal.

True, but that seems to be what the Big Ten is going for right now.

[waggy]

The last two programs they added were Penn State and Nebraska.

[Masterofreality]

A Big Ten that included NC would have no shortage of $$$$ pouring out of it. UNC doesn't want to soil itself by associating with the likes of SEC schools.

Hell, why not?

They already soiled themselves with academic fraud.......allegedly. That's right down the SEC's alley.

[SM#24]

CAA goes 1 for 2 with the SoCon - adds College of Charleston, while Davidson turns them down.

[xlax]

A Big Ten that included NC would have no shortage of $$$$ pouring out of it. UNC doesn't want to soil itself by associating with the likes of SEC schools.

yeah cause i mean what has UNC ever done to soil its sterling reputation as a fine academic institution? [/sarcasm]

[GoMuskies]

UNC is one of the finest public institutions in this great nation of ours.

UNC '03

[xlax]

UNC is one of the finest public institutions in this great nation of ours.

UNC '03

their academic reputation of late is much more in line with the SEC than the BIG.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Big East rejects espn offer. Going to open market.

DouglasC.Abel ‏@dvabel
@AstrosFan1975 @MHver3 no it will force the big 12 to act because according to the new bcs replacement the big 12 needs more teams for more$

26 Oct MHver3 MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@dvabel @astrosfan1975 bingo! Espn been on the horn with B12 officials all day

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
If espn has its way the B12 will actually become numerically correct. The pressure is on!

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Louisville AD extremely unhappy about leaving espn. Renewed enthusiasm on exiting the Big East.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Rutgers and USF also making closing arguments to Big12 officials.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@onetri7 espn may have backed us in a corner with the $50 mil ACC buyout..at least until B1G moves. 2 BE teams likely.

[GoMuskies]

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Louisville AD extremely unhappy about leaving espn. Renewed enthusiasm on exiting the Big East.


The Big East hasn't left ESPN yet. ESPN just has to compete with the others if they want the Big East rights now. So this is a bit premature.

[muskienick]

The Big East hasn't left ESPN yet. ESPN just has to compete with the others if they want the Big East rights now. So this is a bit premature.

Absolutely true! However, if ESPN is going to go with either the Big 12 or the Big East, wouldn't they be better off marketing a Conference with the llikes of Texas, Okalahoma, Kansas, WVU, OK St., Texas Tech, TCU, etc. with Louisville and others salivating at the idea of Big 12 Membership? Even if they have to throw considerably more cash at the Big 12, why would ESPN want to market the likes of South Florida, Houston, (woeful football) Memphis, Central Florida, Seton Hall, DePaul, , SMU, etc.?

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Absolutely true! However, if ESPN is going to go with either the Big 12 or the Big East, wouldn't they be better off marketing a Conference with the llikes of Texas, Okalahoma, Kansas, WVU, OK St., Texas Tech, TCU, etc. with Louisville and others salivating at the idea of Big 12 Membership? Even if they have to throw considerably more cash at the Big 12, why would ESPN want to market the likes of South Florida, Houston, (woeful football) Memphis, Central Florida, Seton Hall, DePaul, , SMU, etc.?

Lets also not forget that ESPN is as vindictive as they come. They were a large reason WV, Pitt, ND Bball, and Syracuse all left the Big East.

I find it hard to believe that the BE testing the open market will improve relations with ESPN.

[muskienick]

...or improve what some other network might be willing to pay them for the rights to telecast their sports!

[bleedXblue]

...or improve what some other network might be willing to pay them for the rights to telecast their sports!

Big East is in trouble. Their football is mediocre and it always will be. Basketball might not be enough to keep it together. If they lose Louisville, all of the dominos are going to start falling.

[waggy]

Big East is in trouble. Their football is mediocre and it always will be. Basketball might not be enough to keep it together. If they lose Louisville, all of the dominos are going to start falling.

Once again, these programs, as mis-matched as they may be, are "worth more" together than they are apart.