CCT: Atlantic 10 All-Conference Teams & Predictions

[LutherRackleyRulez]

College Chalktalk's
Atlantic 10 All-Conference Teams & Predictions



1. Temple
2. Dayton
3. Richmond
4. Xavier***
5. Saint Louis
6. Rhode Island
7. Charlotte
8. Duquesne
9. La Salle
10. UMass
11. GW
12. Saint Joseph's
13. Saint Bonaventure
14. Fordham




2nd Team


Tu Holloway (Jr.), Xavier: "With Crawford gone this will be a breakout year for him. Was solid last year, had a 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio and scored 12 a game. He did this while helping to run the offense for 31 minutes a night. Look for his scoring to go up. He seems to have matured as a player and will be counted on to be a team leader."








http://collegechalktalk.com/atlantic10/2010-11/10.4.10cctpredictions

[DC Muskie]

Wow they really think highly of Dayton's young backcourt.

[XU 87]

4th place? And behind Dayton? They just never learn.

[XU05and07]

Dayton wasn't picked 1st? What do they have to hang their hats on this year???...they're not even off-season champions

[Masterofreality]

Good. Just more motivation.

[GoMuskies]

I wanted to be mad....but if the A-10 is a 4 bid league I think this is entirely possible (other than Dayton being ahead of us). I think a 10 seed type of team from Xavier is a reasonable expectation.

It's pretty dangerous to pick anyone but Xavier as the #1 team given recent history, though.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

I would drop Dayton to #5 and slide Richmond, us, and St. Louis up a notch. I think those are clearly the best 4 and they wouldn't surprise me to finish in any order 1-4.

[smileyy]

I was about to defend the article having Tu on the second team, because you wouldn't want two point guards on your All-Conference team, and you're not exactly going to pick Tu over the reigning (though undeserving) Conference Player of the Year.

Then I saw Kwamain Mitchell up there on the first team. Gotta figure that's some bulletin board material for Tu.

[madness31]

The A-10 should get at least 4 teams into the tourney this year. Anything less than 4 would be a huge disappointment. If UD has a quality point this year they will finish in the top 3 and advance to the the sweet 16. UD has their key players returning so it is foolish to think they don't have a shot at finishing at the top. They do tend to choke in conference but a good point will prevent that.

Temple, X, UD, Richmond, and Saint Louis all have a chance to finish at the top. Charlotte, RI, and possibly others could prove to be forces as well. The league is incredibly deep assuming they play to potential. X will need to have a faster start than last year to help the conference realize this potential.

[whiteyxu]

While I agree that X needs to have a better 1st half than we had last year, I think that the potential of the conference is only going to be reached if some other teams start performing in March. The A10 had 5 teams (almost 6 with SLU making a run) that had NCAA tourney chances. URI and Dayton fell apart at the end leaving only 3 teams in the tournament, and Xavier was the only one of them which won a game in the big dance. Sure, UD won the NIT, but it's the friggin NIT - no one cares.

If the A10 wants to reach its potential and gain more respect, it needs multiple teams making deep tournament runs, not just the top dog. Nobody thinks anything great of the Horizon League or Southern Conference just because Butler and Davidson made deep tournament runs. And I think the Missouri Valley Conference got 4 or 5 teams in a few years back (I could be wrong, but I think I remember that) but they don't get any respect either. It's not enough to get teams in. The A10 has the potential of having multiple teams win games in the NCAA tournament. I'm confident that X will do that this year, but I think we need to see the other teams start to step it up when it counts.

Sure, I'm probably thinking a little too optimistically here, but the conference has been close the past few years, and I'm hoping it's time to see some results soon.

[AdamtheFlyer]

National press outlets always love the A10, despite a relative conference wide lack of NCAA success. 2004 was the banner year of the decade with 4 teams in the dance and 2 in the Elite 8, but since then the league has had 2 teams win games only once (2009 Xavier and Dayton). This year you'll have Temple in the preseason top 25, Xavier and Dayton recieveing votes, and potentially SLU (depending on their issues) and Richmond as well. All 5 will start the season as either should or could be tourney teams in most people's eyes. You can count on Handsome Joe having Temple, Xavier and Dayton in his first, stupidly early bracketology. That's good pub regardless of the absurdity of doing one in November.

That's a lot of respect overall for a league with 1 non-Xavier tourney win since 2006. I don't think the A10 is in any danger of falling off the radar like the MVC, CAA, or any other flash in the pan. It would take a 2005-2006 like league wide drop, something I can't possibly see. The league as a whole is much more stable today. Xavier and Dayton are recruiting on a level never seen in this league, Temple is strong, Richmond is strong, SJU will build back, SLU is trending upward, Charlotte is really starting to step up the recruiting... Ol' Juan Bid won't be back in town any time soon.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

UD has their key players returning so it is foolish to think they don't have a shot at finishing at the top.

Really? You realize they graduated Huelsman (like him or not, he was servicable and a multi-year starter in the post), Marcus Johnson (X killer), Mickey Perry, Warren, and Lowry? Are you saying that Chris' Johnson and Wright were their only key players? They lost a ton off of last year's team. Now Wright is really good and Johnson can do a few things well, for sure, but they have a bunch of question marks. While Staten is clearly a stud-in-waiting, a true freshman point guard, a load of questions, and two returners doesn't sound like a team that should be expected to contend for a league title.

All of that said, Coach Gregory finished 7th with a consensus conference favorite, so maybe he'll do the opposite this year and win with a roster that isn't a lock to win the A-10.

But I don't see it.....

[madness31]

Yes UD lost some starters but point play was a negative for them far too frequently. It is rare for a team to succeed without a strong point. X did it a couple years back but that was because the rest of the team was dominant. With the right point Wright and Johnson will both put up much better numbers. Staten is a question mark being a true freshman but I believe they also have a transfer steping in this year. Depth might be a question considering the number of players lost but for the most part these were not key players. I could be wrong as I haven't watched enough UD games to consider myself an expert.

I agree that the A-10 must have multiple teams advancing in the NCAA tourney. RI, UD, and Saint Louis all advancing deep in the other tourneys does reflect well on the conference but obviously less impressive than deep NCAA runs. It is also important to point out the quality of the teams Temple and Richmond lost to. They were terrible match-ups and in my eyes shows the fear of the committee of pairing non BCS quality teams against the BCS teams. All 4 of those teams should have advanced in the first round had they not played one another. Yes it doesn't take away the actual first round loss but as a conference supporter you must realize the other two teams didn't just choke. Assuming the conference is as good as I believe, we should see a couple sweet 16 teams from the A-10 this year with a chance of even more. It could depend on match-ups but the conference should do enough this year to get strong seeding.

2004 was an amazing year. That year could have easily had 2 A-10 teams in the final 4 with a possible shot at facing one another in the championship. They were both great teams and deserved more than elite 8 finishes. The Duke game was ugly with both teams playing poorly, though many unknowledgeable NCAA fans saw it as X was lucky Duke played so bad. Not sure how someone could have that opinion considering the teams X beat to get to that point but I heard it a few times after the game. Of course I heard similar things after X lost to OSU in OT a few years ago. I'm thinking this perception is beginning to change after the consistency of the program since those days but it will take another elite 8 or final 4 to completely put those comments to rest.

Hopefully X can make the sweet 16 again this year but once again there are many question marks. If Frease is a beast you can mark it down but if not then someone will have to step-up at the wing and Latham or Robinson will have to play big too. There is plenty of potential on the team but missing the tourney is also possible. A strong start is important as conference play will be difficult.

[DC Muskie]

Dayton has the best home court advantage in the conference. That right there should give them 8 wins right off the bat. Split the road games that 12 wins right there.

11-12 wins for a Dayton program should be expected. Anything is better then the back court they produced last year, although I do think expecting a freshman to lead you to a second place finish is a bit much.

I like Benson and I really like Paul Williams. I think those two guys really pick up their game.

And don't forget Chris Johnson played really well against us.

Having said all of that, Dayton is still Dayton until they can prove they are in fact not Dayton.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Dayton has the best home court advantage in the conference. That right there should give them 8 wins right off the bat. Split the road games that 12 wins right there.

11-12 wins for a Dayton program should be expected. Anything is better then the back court they produced last year, although I do think expecting a freshman to lead you to a second place finish is a bit much.

I like Benson and I really like Paul Williams. I think those two guys really pick up their game.

And don't forget Chris Johnson played really well against us.

Having said all of that, Dayton is still Dayton until they can prove they are in fact not Dayton.

Agree on their home court advantage, but considering we haven't lost a home conference game in 4+ years, I wouldn't give them the title "Best" quite that easily.

Further, them splitting on the road isn't a no-brainer, heck, I wouldn't say us splitting on the road is a no-brainer.

Warren and Lowry weren't great, to say the least, but they understood Brian's system and defended like mad-men. You think Staten is going to like coming out every 92 seconds and then going back in 45 seconds later? Warren and Lowry got used to that and played through it.

Paul Williams is solid but he isn't close to as good as Marcus Johsnon, so I think it is a minus.

Chris Johnson can leap, rebound, and shoot. All fine. He can't, however, dribble and walk at the same time, so there is that. I'd take him, don't get me wrong, but if he is your 2nd best player I'm not sure I'm planning a 3rd week of March hotel expense.

[AdamtheFlyer]

Staten gets the pub, but people forget about Josh Parker. Averaged 10ppg at Drake as a sophomore, over 40% from 3. Staten should do things within the system well, but I think Parker will bring the ability to ad-lib and get his own shot from the PG spot right away. Could be a great weapon. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him approach 10 points and 4 assists a game.

Overall I think it will be a much different team. It's not a matter of replacing guy for guy, but shifting to match the talent on hand. Chris Wright and Chris Johnson should both threaten to average a double/double. There's more pure offensive talent on the floor than probably every other team in the league, Xavier included. Benson, Wright, and Parker will be able to create their own points/FT opportunities. C Johnson hasn't been that kind of player, by he's a deadly finisher from the paint out to 24 feet. If Staten, Williams, Spearman, Searcy and Fabrizius can take what the system gives them and score points through it, Dayton will be a pretty electric offense. To me, even with a brand new backcourt, there's no excuse for that not to happen. Too much talent.

OTOH, for the first time in many years the defense is a huge question mark. To me, only Paul Williams returns as a known plus defender. Wright makes plays on defense, but all to often he gets lost. Chris Johnson can make plays but has been average overall. Searcy is ok, Benson should be ok. But the rest of the team is a complete unknown. I trust BG to build a good defense, but I have no idea how quickly it will happen. It will be a work in progress all year, I think.

[DC Muskie]

Agree on their home court advantage, but considering we haven't lost a home conference game in 4+ years, I wouldn't give them the title "Best" quite that easily.

Further, them splitting on the road isn't a no-brainer, heck, I wouldn't say us splitting on the road is a no-brainer.

Warren and Lowry weren't great, to say the least, but they understood Brian's system and defended like mad-men. You think Staten is going to like coming out every 92 seconds and then going back in 45 seconds later? Warren and Lowry got used to that and played through it.

Paul Williams is solid but he isn't close to as good as Marcus Johsnon, so I think it is a minus.

Chris Johnson can leap, rebound, and shoot. All fine. He can't, however, dribble and walk at the same time, so there is that. I'd take him, don't get me wrong, but if he is your 2nd best player I'm not sure I'm planning a 3rd week of March hotel expense.

I don't think the Cintas Center is a place that can produce a victory. We win at home simply because we are the better team. Does that make sense? Those Dayton hillbillies can squeeze out a few victories on their own.

Depending on the schedule, and I may be wrong, but I think Dayton has a very favorable road schedule.

I don't think Staten is going to be able to gaurd like Lowery, but you have to admit, you aren't going to see Lowery type ten row passes from Staten either.

Don't underestimate Paul Williams. That's all I'm saying.

With that I'm done defending Dayton. They still suck.

[AdamtheFlyer]

Dayton gets Temple and Richmond at home. That's huge. The reason why I can't see them winning less than 10, probably at least 11 games. More if SLU indeed loses their 2 best players as rumored.

[More Cowbell]

To the point that Dayton has a better home court advantage:

http://www.rpiratings.com/homecourtrec.html

Rank Team Arena Capacity Opened Yrs W L Pct.

4 Xavier Cintas Center 10,250 2000 10 135 17 .8882
112 Dayton U. of Dayton Arena 13,455 1969 41 509 194 .7240

Xavier definitely has better teams than most of our opponents, but this is a pretty big difference.

[DC Muskie]

To the point that Dayton has a better home court advantage:

http://www.rpiratings.com/homecourtrec.html

Rank Team Arena Capacity Opened Yrs W L Pct.

4 Xavier Cintas Center 10,250 2000 10 135 17 .8882
112 Dayton U. of Dayton Arena 13,455 1969 41 509 194 .7240

Xavier definitely has better teams than most of our opponents, but this is a pretty big difference.

That's interesting but it doesn't make sense to me. We also have a better home court advantage then Duke, but are you telling me that Duke wouldn't have a better shot at beating us at the Cintas?

Good stuff though.

[madness31]

The home court advantage statistics are simply the result of past success. It would be a factor in predicting the outcome of future games but wouldn't necessarily make X the favorite over Duke. X would be favored over every team that is considered its equal or worse when playing at home. X would be favored over some teams that are considered slightly better with the home court advantage but if X was playing Duke this season Duke would be favored but by fewer points than if the game was on the road.

X has a great home court advantage but I'm actually confused by that considering it rarely seems the crowd is loud when watching on TV. X has a solid road record too so maybe it is just the team is better than most of the teams we play and the improvement at home is more about not dealing with an adverse crowd. Then again maybe it is louder when you are there.

[kyxu]

While I agree that Xavier has an advantage on their homecourt, the competition over the last few years that has traveled to Cintas and lost has not exactly been stellar, and I think that has more to do with it than the "atmosphere" of the arena. Though it's an impressive venue and may seem imposing to conference foes used to playing in high school gyms (LaSalle, Fordham, etc.), I don't think there's much of an atmosphere that would give us a decided advantage.

We haven't lost in the conference going on five years, but I think the last ranked A-10 team to come to our place and lose was Dayton in 2008, and everyone on their team was injured or sick. Before that may have been GW in 2006, and they beat us.

Tennessee beat us in late 2007, and Butler beat us a year later. Since that Butler loss, we really haven't had many good teams come to town. This year, however, will be an exception and will test just how important our homecourt advantage is with Florida, Butler and (sorta) Wake Forest coming in.

[More Cowbell]

I would say that Duke plays more difficult opponents, whereas Xavier and Dayton play teams of similar difficulty.

[CinciX12]

We would destroy Duke!

God I still remember us playing like we were in awe of that jersey..

[AdamtheFlyer]

To the point that Dayton has a better home court advantage:

http://www.rpiratings.com/homecourtrec.html

Rank Team Arena Capacity Opened Yrs W L Pct.

4 Xavier Cintas Center 10,250 2000 10 135 17 .8882
112 Dayton U. of Dayton Arena 13,455 1969 41 509 194 .7240

Xavier definitely has better teams than most of our opponents, but this is a pretty big difference.

There's a reason why the top 4 are all 10 years old or newer, and 5 was opened in 1997. Less data. Over time the numbers will always settle down a bit, no way Gonzaga, Pitt, and Xavier keep winning homes games at a 90% pace. Looking at Dayton, the numbers are skewed by three bad years. Typically a normal year sees UD lose 1-3 home games. From '94-'96 they lost probably 30. Those outlier years bumped the total up somewhere between 22-26 more losses, or roughly 8% of the total losses . From that you can gather that over time UD more accurately has an 80% home winning percentage. Duke is another example. More time = more down years.

Down periods for programs are inevitable over time, and the good programs in newer arenas are seeing inflated data because of a small sample. It will correct as the data grows.

But even then, simply looking at the W/L record is flawed. The mystique of "home court advantage" is qualitative, no sense in trying to quantify it. It's a feeling, it's the underdog that seems to always play at a high level at home. That doesn't always mean a win. Every year you see many more scares than upsets when good teams go on the road. The advantage mystique is still strong.

[CinciX12]

I think that Xavier and Gonzaga as an example will keep winning games at a 90% clip. The quality of conference opponents not being stellar has a lot to do with it, imo at least. But you are right over time things will even out.

Just think though, without all those guaranteed UD wins our home percentage would only be around 83%:)

[AdamtheFlyer]

Just think though, without all those guaranteed UD wins our home percentage would only be around 83%:)

Bazinga.

[madness31]

Adam, I take issue with your reasoning. Longer data makes outliers less relevant and not more. If X had a bad year during their short history at the Cintas their win % would be destroyed. You are correct however in stating that the shorter history can skew the data, just not necessarily positively. Really what should be argued is that old data is not really relevant to current trends in this study. All records should be limited to 10 years or possibly shorter which would better enable someone to compare teams and predict future results.

Quality of opponent is obviously not reflected so using this alone to predict results would be unsuccessful. Home court against RPI ranges, conferences or other breakdowns would be incredibly useful especially over a 5 to 10 year period.

[AdamtheFlyer]

Fair enough. Good post.

[bobbiemcgee]

Down periods for programs are inevitable over time, and the good programs in newer arenas are seeing inflated data because of a small sample. It will correct as the data grows.

With the guys we have coming in, don't see this for a long, long time.