jdm2000
02-20-2010, 05:04 PM
Don't look now, but the A10 is heading back toward 4 bids. URI and Charlotte have really choked it away. A brief look at some contenders (ymmv):
Temple: A lock. Solid RPI, good schedule headed toward an A10 title (it's a pretty easy one the rest of the way), good non-con wins against Villanova and Siena. Play well and they are looking at a nice seed.
Richmond: Solidly in. A nice non-con with wins of ODU, Florida, Mississippi St., and Missouri (none necessarily great, all pretty solid). I think that they have a tough road ahead as far as winning the title, with games remaining at X and Charlotte, and home to Dayton.
Xavier: Solidly in. Profile continues improving. Solid non-con wins against UC, Florida, and (surprisingly?) Kent State. Close calls at WF and Butler won't necessarily count for anything but seemed to have helped the team figure out how to win on the road. Perhaps the best strength is the record against the top of the A10--wins over URI and Charlotte, a split with Dayton, and still the chance to beat SLU and Richmond. 12 A-10 wins seems very likely with games remaining @Fordham and home to St. Bona; beat SLU and hold serve against Richmond and you get 14-2.
Dayton: Bubblicious. Non-con seems to be getting worse, as Georgia Tech has turned into a middling ACC team, though ODU is a good win (if not necessarily an at-large pick). The loss to St. Joe's is a bad one--the Hawks may be a sub-200 RPI team by the end of the season. The schedule is not a help, as they are @Duq, @Temple, @Richmond, and home to a tough SLU team. Given their road woes, it is hard to see them doing any better than 3-2 the rest of the way. If the 3 wins include Temple and Richmond, I think they are solidly in.
URI: Fading fast. The RPI loves them (X's best RPI win), but the highlight of the non-con are wins over Okla. State and Northeastern. (I think Boston College could be a top 100 win by the end of the year.) Their win @ Dayton is helpful, and could be a big deal come selection time. But they are fading fast at 7-5 in the league. With a closing schedule of Fordham, @ St. Bona, Charlotte, and @ UMass, there's no reason they can't finish 4-0. If they do, I think that they have a legit shot.
Charlotte: Outside. Only non-con win of note is L'ville, though the wins in conference over Temple and Richmond are very solid. RPI is in the 50s, though, and the wheels seem to be coming off. Tough closing schedule with URI and Richmond thrown in there. I'm afraid that they will need to win out and make the A-10 finals, or else win the tourney, to get in. (Also, though they don't have any sub-100 RPI losses, they have been shellacked by Duke, ODU, Tennessee, and Dayton, which has to give you pause.)
SLU, of course, is in the thick of the race and will impact everything, but I think they are coming from too far behind to have a real shot at an at-large.
With all that in mind, the top three teams seem to be in pretty good shape. Dayton probably has the best profile of the next three, but they have a tough schedule (I really don't trust them on the road, and I think they have to win at either Temple or Richmond). If URI was playing just a little better, I'd place them as 4th most likely to get there.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Temple, UR, and Xavier are in, along with whoever finishes stronger of URI and Dayton (I'll say URI). I think 6 bids is really unlikely now, and 5 may require some team (SLU? Charlotte? Dayton?) beating URI in the A-10 finals.
Temple: A lock. Solid RPI, good schedule headed toward an A10 title (it's a pretty easy one the rest of the way), good non-con wins against Villanova and Siena. Play well and they are looking at a nice seed.
Richmond: Solidly in. A nice non-con with wins of ODU, Florida, Mississippi St., and Missouri (none necessarily great, all pretty solid). I think that they have a tough road ahead as far as winning the title, with games remaining at X and Charlotte, and home to Dayton.
Xavier: Solidly in. Profile continues improving. Solid non-con wins against UC, Florida, and (surprisingly?) Kent State. Close calls at WF and Butler won't necessarily count for anything but seemed to have helped the team figure out how to win on the road. Perhaps the best strength is the record against the top of the A10--wins over URI and Charlotte, a split with Dayton, and still the chance to beat SLU and Richmond. 12 A-10 wins seems very likely with games remaining @Fordham and home to St. Bona; beat SLU and hold serve against Richmond and you get 14-2.
Dayton: Bubblicious. Non-con seems to be getting worse, as Georgia Tech has turned into a middling ACC team, though ODU is a good win (if not necessarily an at-large pick). The loss to St. Joe's is a bad one--the Hawks may be a sub-200 RPI team by the end of the season. The schedule is not a help, as they are @Duq, @Temple, @Richmond, and home to a tough SLU team. Given their road woes, it is hard to see them doing any better than 3-2 the rest of the way. If the 3 wins include Temple and Richmond, I think they are solidly in.
URI: Fading fast. The RPI loves them (X's best RPI win), but the highlight of the non-con are wins over Okla. State and Northeastern. (I think Boston College could be a top 100 win by the end of the year.) Their win @ Dayton is helpful, and could be a big deal come selection time. But they are fading fast at 7-5 in the league. With a closing schedule of Fordham, @ St. Bona, Charlotte, and @ UMass, there's no reason they can't finish 4-0. If they do, I think that they have a legit shot.
Charlotte: Outside. Only non-con win of note is L'ville, though the wins in conference over Temple and Richmond are very solid. RPI is in the 50s, though, and the wheels seem to be coming off. Tough closing schedule with URI and Richmond thrown in there. I'm afraid that they will need to win out and make the A-10 finals, or else win the tourney, to get in. (Also, though they don't have any sub-100 RPI losses, they have been shellacked by Duke, ODU, Tennessee, and Dayton, which has to give you pause.)
SLU, of course, is in the thick of the race and will impact everything, but I think they are coming from too far behind to have a real shot at an at-large.
With all that in mind, the top three teams seem to be in pretty good shape. Dayton probably has the best profile of the next three, but they have a tough schedule (I really don't trust them on the road, and I think they have to win at either Temple or Richmond). If URI was playing just a little better, I'd place them as 4th most likely to get there.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Temple, UR, and Xavier are in, along with whoever finishes stronger of URI and Dayton (I'll say URI). I think 6 bids is really unlikely now, and 5 may require some team (SLU? Charlotte? Dayton?) beating URI in the A-10 finals.