Remaining A10 Season @ 2/8

[bourbonman]

OK, I'm bored. So I played a game looking at the remaining games for all teams at the top of conference as of 2/8. They are as follows:

1 - Char @ 8-1
2 - XU @ 8-2
3 - URI @ 7-2
Rich @ 7-2
Tem @ 7-2
6 - UD @ 5-3
SLU @ 5-3 They're tied for 6th, so had to include at this point.

All other teams have losing conference records so don't factor in. One could go on a winning streak and factor into the top, but doubtful.

Sooooo, if utilizing only current Sagarin rankings and adjusting for home team for an additional 4 points (why 4 points, b/c I'm playing by myself and I want to) what would the final standings at the top be at the end of the season?
FYI, the adding 4 points had a little influence to an out come of a game. If it was close I will note below. Also some comments regarding Pomeroy ratings as well.

1 - Tem @ 14-2. Beating URI, @ StB, @ StJ, UD, @ LaS, @ SLU and GW. There could be one tossup, if you use Pomeroy they are ranked very close to UD. But being at home they'll probably win. This Saturday's game vs. URI is pretty much a tossup, but they got the 4 point home adjustment.

2 tie w/2 others - XU @ 13-3. Beating StJ, @ SLU, Rich, @ Ford and StB. Losing @ Char. Now this one only favors Char b/c of the 4 point home court. Using Pomeroy, XU would win. It's a road game so I left it. Anyway, even if X pulls it out they lose the tie breaker vs. Tem and are still 2nd. X needs some help.

Also in 2 - Char @ 13-3. Beating Duq, XU, StJ, @ GW, Rich. Losing @ UD and URI. As noted above, the XU could flip per Pomeroy. Another flip would be the season ending game at home vs. Rich. Right now the 2 have similar Sagarin ratings with Char getting the home 4 points putting them over. Yet Rich has a lot stronger Pomeroy. Definite possibility of another 1 or 2 losses here.

And 3rd team tied for 2 - URI @ 13-3. Beating Rich, @ SLU, Ford, @ StB, Char and UMass. Losing only @ Tem. Rich game pretty much a tossup in both Pomeroy and Sagarin with edge being a home game.

5 tied with on other - Rich @ 11-5. Beating @ StB, Ford, GW and UD. Losing @ URI, @ XU and @ Char. As noted above, URI has similar ratings but Rich is on road. A definite tossup is vs. UD 2nd last game of season with edge right now to Rich being at home. AND as mentioned above Rich has stronger Pomeroy than Char, so a definite possibility of a flip on the last game of season, but it's on the road.

Also at 5 - UD @ 11-5. Beating Char, @ SLU, LaS, @ Duq, UMass, SLU. Losing @ Tem and @ Rich. 3 of the victories are against non-contenders and 2 others against the current hanger-oner - SLU. Char is their only tough victory left and is at home. A possible flip is the loss at Rich as mentioned above.

7 - SLU @ 8-8. Only 3 more victories per the ratings tonight @ StJ, @ UMass and Duq. Losses vs. UD, URI, XU, Tem and @ UD. Four of the five losses at home, so a strong possibility of one or two more victories there, but will probably leave them still in 7th place.


OK, a lot of numbers and of course the results will be different. But the key to me is XU has a chance but needs some help. But even with that, winning at Char will be key (as if that was news to anyone).

Good luck to us as this plays out.

[Snipe]

Interesting to see who everyoe has left. Thanks for the post.

I predict that Saint Louis is going to have an impact on this race. Everyone and their mother outside of Richmond (who already lost there) is on their way to Saint Louis.

[MADXSTER]

Good post. Have to agree, it's going to be very interesting going into the final stretch.

[Frank D.]

Interesting to see who everyoe has left. Thanks for the post.

I predict that Saint Louis is going to have an impact on this race. Everyone and their mother outside of Richmond (who already lost there) is on their way to Saint Louis.

It's a lot of fun in this conference this season. So much to be determined in this final month. Richmond seems to have the toughest schedule here on out, having to play on the road against 3 of the other 5 contenders.

Dayton will have a tough time winning the conference because they already lost to a non-contender and at home. If you want to win this conference, you have to avoid losing to anyone outside the top 6 teams, and win all your home games.

Temple certainly seems to have an inside track, as they probably will be favored in the rest of their games (aka, they don't play any of the contenders on the road).

We probably have the second-easiest conference schedule the rest of the way.

Should be a lot of fun as all of this gets sorted out. Obviously, a win at Charlotte would be huge for our chances of winning the regular season again. Charlotte has certainly improved as the year has gone on, but I can't get that game at our place out of my head . . . where quite simply, we dominated them.

[bourbonman]

Updated current standings through 2/9. They are as follows:

1 - Char @ 8-1
2 - XU @ 8-2
3 - URI @ 7-2
Rich @ 7-2
Tem @ 7-2
6 - SLU @ 6-3
7 - UD @ 5-3 They've been passed by, at least until they play tonight. Could slip further if they don't take care of business tonight.


Haven't updated my spreadsheet for the one game played last night. I'll try to update periodically, to see how things are shaking out.

AGAIN, good luck to us as this plays out.

[PMI]

Is anyone else nervous about the game @ SLU? I feel like we can afford one more loss to be completely comfortable going into AC, and I'd like to save it for Charlotte if needed. I still think at 12-4 we have an excellent shot at the tourney, but I don't want to get upset in AC and have to worry, or have Digger Phelps bitch about how we made it over the 11th place Big East team.

[MADXSTER]

How many losses will the A10 champion have?

Record wise, I think there will be 2 or 3 teams tied for first.

[bourbonman]

Is anyone else nervous about the game @ SLU? I feel like we can afford one more loss to be completely comfortable going into AC, and I'd like to save it for Charlotte if needed. I still think at 12-4 we have an excellent shot at the tourney, but I don't want to get upset in AC and have to worry, or have Digger Phelps bitch about how we made it over the 11th place Big East team.

A couple of responses

1 - Several contenders need to go to SLU. 'm nervous about that one, but so should others.
2 - I think at 12-4 we're still in, but not comfortably. Would need mostly favorites of other leagues to win their tourneys. Too many upsets and our lack of signature road victories has me nervous. (Of course the Charlotte and Florida games could ease my pain.)
3 - Digger is going to bitch at someone from the A10 bumping one of his children, even if we only get 3 from the A10. Let him bitch! I hope we get 5 or 6 so we can see him cry too!

I love this time of year the best. It's like college football season. Every game counts if you haven't distanced yourself at this point yet from the others scrambling!

[BandAid]

I'm only comfortable if we win the A-10 tourney. The last two years we were high at-large bids, but I still sweated through the selection show. (Probably because I'm so used to the rhetoric of the Billy Packers who believe no non-bcs schools should get in)