Iranian Intifada

[Snipe]

Some big news happening around the globe that hasn't really hit the news cycle very hard...

The start of an Iranian intifada (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/12/the-start-of-an-iranian-intifada.html)
by MEIR JAVEDANFAR in Tel Aviv - PBS Frontline



Judging from the events of Ashura, however, the protests now seem to carry the potential to turn into a full-scale civil disobedience campaign, not unlike the first intifada the Palestinians initiated against Israel in 1987. Such an uprising will mean continuous periods of strikes and civil disobedience, as well as more confrontations between members of the public and security forces.

The main factor contributing to the new status quo is the unrelenting policies of the Supreme Leader, which have pitted his philosophy of the Islamic Republic against longstanding Islamic institutions.

This is a battle that Khamenei will find extremely difficult to win. In fact, if developments continue in their current form, they can result in significant changes to the structure of his regime, or more drastically, lead to its total demise.

His decision to allow the Basij to mount an attack on mourners at Ayatollah Montazeri's funeral was one factor leading to the spread of opposition in rural areas, faster and more efficiently than any campaign the reformist camp could have orchestrated. Yes, members of the opposition tried to take advantage of the mayhem, but also many genuine mourners had come to pay homage to a Grand Ayatollah. To Ayatollah Khamenei's forces, they were all the same. To allow attacks against the residents of a holy city where the seeds of the 1979 revolution were planted was not just dead wrong from a religious perspective, it was politically counterproductive as well.

You can read the whole article at the link. If the Iranian Government were to be overthrown it would be the most politically significant event of the year or even perhaps the decade. It would have ramifications that would spread world wide.

I don't know how exactly it would happen. It could be a long process of increasing civil disobedience, coupled with increasing violent government response. Perhaps a wholesale slaughter of demonstrators would prompt a universal reaction against the government. Right now they are just picking them off a few at a time. Or perhaps the order comes down to slaughter and the army simply refuses and changes sides. Coups don't happen quitely, they are always bloody, and at some point you need to get control of the guns.

Lots of at stake for both sides. The Iranians fund Syria's dictatorship and through them dominate Lebanon through the terrorist group Hezbolla. Hezbolla also provokes wars with Israel. They also fund the Taliban and insurgents in Iraq. They cause trouble across the region and in recent years they have been becoming a nuclear threat. They are the biggest problem child in the world. Meanwhile at home their people suffer high unemployment and inflation, a depressed economy and a gas crisis. How one of the lead oil producers in the world can't refine enough gas is a symbol of how bad their government priorities really are when they preside over a global terror funding network.

Don't know how it will play out but things are off the hook over there. Free the People!

Lots of current links here (http://memeorandum.com/).

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Snipe, where do you get your breaking news? You seem to get a lot of info before it hits the mainstream

EDIT: Nevermind didn't see the link

[Snipe]

Memeorandum (http://memeorandum.com/) often has interesting stuff that people are talking about. It has original news and major blog reactions to it.

The problem with the news covering the story is that new reporting is prohibited in Iran. You have to rely on citizen reports, twitter accounts, and you tube videos posted by Iranians. I don't think our mainstream networks like to report what is happening on blogs, youtube and twitter as primary sources. The first hand stuff is interesting though, and it doesn't stop the Brittish from reporting on the matter.

In a free democracy all of our blemishes are out in the open for all to see and all to critisize. In a closed society with a state press it can be a tough nut to crack to report a story. Both sides have agendas of course. It is hard to really know what is going on over there, but judging from some of the cell phone pictures and youtube videos it is substantial.

[Snipe]

Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/) of The Atlantic has been all over it.

[Snipe]

Is this Iran’s Berlin Wall moment? (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6969094.ece) - London Times

Could the Mullahs Fall This Time? (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-12-27/could-the-mullahs-fall-this-time/full/) - The Daily Beast

[boozehound]

I think that I would love it if Iran's government fell.

My only concerns would be the possible destabilization of an already unstable region, particularly with the fall of Iraq some years ago. Who fills the power vacuum though? Is there a realistic chance of a more progressive government or do we just end up replacing one idiot with another? I have some major concerns about sustainability of a democratic or even progressive dictatorship governing style in the middle east. It certainly does not appear to have taken in Iraq as quickly as we thought it would.

That being said I think that globally the Iranian government causes far more problems than they prevent and I would love to see them fall. The younger citizens of Iran in particular seem to be at least moderately progressive in their beliefs.

[Snipe]

It would surprise most Americans how Pro-American the people of Iran actually are. The leaders of Iran and the Mullahs may hate us, but we have friends among many of the Iranian people. If they were to get a democracy it would be much more moderate than the current regime.

I think that Iran would not only survive but prosper within a democracy. I think relations between our nations would be restored. I actually think Obama would be the perfect person to go over there and do it. It could be a win-win for everyone.

[Snipe]

Is this Iran's second revolution? (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/28/iran-revolution-protests) - The Guardian


The remarkable refusal of Iran's reformist opposition to give in, and the regime's increasing air of desperation as it attempts, with diminishing legitimacy, to force it to do so, has left many observers, foreign and domestic, wondering whether the second Iranian revolution is finally underway.

With every fatal bullet, with every ill-directed teargas canister and every ill-advised arrest, the heirs to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and the Islamic coup d'etat of 1979 find themselves stranded ever more invidiously on the wrong side of history.

After Sunday clashes in Iran, 'Green Movement' supporters take stock (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1228/After-Sunday-clashes-in-Iran-Green-Movement-supporters-take-stock) - Christian Science Monitor


“This is a classic Iranian protest movement led by creative chaos more than anything else,” said Randjbar Daemi, an Iran analyst and Phd candidate in Contemporary Iranian History at London University. “We’re getting into the final stage of the confrontation and the ruling clique is waving all pretences of respect to faith, tradition, and memory goodbye. Muharram is a month of truce so the authorities in Iran are violating everything. It’s a regime that is feeling and smelling its own demise, ready to embark onto anything in order to avoid the sinking ship from capsizing.”

Iran Ayatollah: 'I Am Convinced that the Regime Will Collapse' (http://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-ayatollah-kadivar-iranian-regime-opposition-movement/story?id=9433282) - ABC News via Germany's Der Spiegel


The opposition is becoming increasingly clear in the formulation of its objectives and more daring. Still, we need to remain patient. I do not know when, exactly, but I am convinced that the regime will collapse.

[GuyFawkes38]

I would love to read more on Iran. Seems a lot like Lebanon (very cosmopolitan and wealthy in the urban areas....has a strong identity outside of Islam...but has a large, poor, rural, religious population that unleashes horror on the entire country).

[BandAid]

I would love to read more on Iran. Seems a lot like Lebanon (very cosmopolitan and wealthy in the urban areas....has a strong identity outside of Islam...but has a large, poor, rural, religious population that unleashes horror on the entire country).

Wow, just throw Islam (and religion in general) under the bus. I bet most of those involved in this revolution also hold religious beliefs...

We say don't let a few lousy Butler fans define an entire, generally classy fanbase...ditto for most religions.

[Juice]

Wow, just throw Islam (and religion in general) under the bus. I bet most of those involved in this revolution also hold religious beliefs...

We say don't let a few lousy Butler fans define an entire, generally classy fanbase...ditto for most religions.

Well it is true that the people who live in Tehran are not as traditional/resistant to change in Iran. They people in the country side are less educated and less exposed to modern/different things in the world. It is not so much an Islam thing but more of an education thing.

[PM Thor]

Juice, I think you are overlooking the most important aspect about the Iranian uprising. It's a youth movement (mostly). Considering how young the population is, something like 2/3rds of the people are under the age of 30, this is a generational movement to redefine the Iranian identity.

Will it work? I hope so, but I see the Mullahs just offering up a sacrificial lamb in Ahmadinejad if it keeps going the way that it is going. They will retain control while at the same time giving the appearance of listening to the populace. Time will tell.

I HATE dayton.

[Snipe]

Warm up the bus!

Ayatollah Khamenei's Jet Checked, Iran Supreme Leader May Flee To Russia If Necessary (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/29/ayatollah-khamenei-jet-ch_n_406496.html)


Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei could flee to Russia should the situation in his country continue to spiral out of control, according to Radio Netherlands.

The media organization reports that the Supreme National Security Council ordered a check-up Sunday of the jet on standby to evacuate Khamenei and his family should the need arise.

If Khamenei does depart the country, it would be reminiscent of an historic event in Iranian history: Jan. 16, 1979, when the Iranian Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi fled Iran following an increase in violent protests. The anniversary of that event is coming up soon.

The plane check is already being viewed by some as an indication that Khamenei will in fact leave Iran, as protests continue.

This is a developing story.

So close it hurts. The Iranian people need to push that ball over the goal line. Break the plane and score a touchdown for humanity.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

Warm up the bus!

Ayatollah Khamenei's Jet Checked, Iran Supreme Leader May Flee To Russia If Necessary (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/29/ayatollah-khamenei-jet-ch_n_406496.html)



So close it hurts. The Iranian people need to push that ball over the goal line. Break the plane and score a touchdown for humanity.

You're right. Everyone wants that Iranian Regime out. But what happens afterwards? Obviously the perfect scenario would be for them to create a stable democracy of some sort. But that scenario is hardly a sure thing in that region, especially with all the turmoil going on around them...

Does this create even more chaos around the Middle East? Does Israel make a move? Does Syria? What about the fundamentalists and all the terrorists? Do they stake claims in Iran?

What about the nuclear facilities in Iran? Who gets control of those? There are a million things that could go wrong and the US military is right in the middle of it all.. This could easily escalate into a regional conflict and that is whats scary.

[Juice]

Juice, I think you are overlooking the most important aspect about the Iranian uprising. It's a youth movement (mostly). Considering how young the population is, something like 2/3rds of the people are under the age of 30, this is a generational movement to redefine the Iranian identity.

Will it work? I hope so, but I see the Mullahs just offering up a sacrificial lamb in Ahmadinejad if it keeps going the way that it is going. They will retain control while at the same time giving the appearance of listening to the populace. Time will tell.

I HATE dayton.

That is a good point. But I would also like to add that the younger generations in Iran are also more educated. I am not saying this to try to "one up" you but to point out that they are related.

[boozehound]

You're right. Everyone wants that Iranian Regime out. But what happens afterwards? Obviously the perfect scenario would be for them to create a stable democracy of some sort. But that scenario is hardly a sure thing in that region, especially with all the turmoil going on around them...

Does this create even more chaos around the Middle East? Does Israel make a move? Does Syria? What about the fundamentalists and all the terrorists? Do they stake claims in Iran?

What about the nuclear facilities in Iran? Who gets control of those? There are a million things that could go wrong and the US military is right in the middle of it all.. This could easily escalate into a regional conflict and that is whats scary.

Yeah. There is still a lot of uncertainty even if the regime in Iran falls.

I am amazed that there isn't more news coverage of this in the US if the government is really that close to being overthrown.

[GuyFawkes38]

Well it is true that the people who live in Tehran are not as traditional/resistant to change in Iran. They people in the country side are less educated and less exposed to modern/different things in the world. It is not so much an Islam thing but more of an education thing.

yeah, I think that's what I was getting at. I think it's healthy to have an identity outside of your religion. I consider myself a proud Christian. But beyond that, I consider myself an American.

Same thing with those living in Tehran, Beirut, Istanbul. They are proud muslims. But they have a rich cultural identity outside of Islam. But I don't think muslims beyond those cities have that same pride in their national identity.

There is a real possibility that the middle east will be engulfed in a Shiite/Sunni war, which would be awful. That wouldn't be a possibility if more people in that region took a cue from the young folks in Tehran and had pride in their national identity.

Edit: I remember watching a documentary of the revolution which explained what pissed off many clerics was a ceremony the old regime did to honor their Persian past. How dare the doomed government take pride in one of the greatest civilizations ever built.

[JimmyTwoTimes37]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/12/30/iran.rallies/index.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/30/iran-police-vehicle-purpo_n_406993.html

[Snipe]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/12/30/iran.rallies/index.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/30/iran-police-vehicle-purpo_n_406993.html

Wow.

That is off the hook. These people are not worried about winning the hearts and minds of the masses. That means very little. You can see the bodies littered on the street.

[Snipe]

You're right. Everyone wants that Iranian Regime out. But what happens afterwards? Obviously the perfect scenario would be for them to create a stable democracy of some sort. But that scenario is hardly a sure thing in that region, especially with all the turmoil going on around them...

Does this create even more chaos around the Middle East? Does Israel make a move? Does Syria? What about the fundamentalists and all the terrorists? Do they stake claims in Iran?

What about the nuclear facilities in Iran? Who gets control of those? There are a million things that could go wrong and the US military is right in the middle of it all.. This could easily escalate into a regional conflict and that is whats scary.

Iran has had elections for the past three decades. The problem with the elections is that the Mullahs approve who gets to run. The Iranian people are used to voting. They got pissed when the vote wasn't counted last June when they voted out the radical Ackmahnutjob. They are used to voting. They have democratic tradtitions. I honestly think that Iran would do very well if they set the people free.

FREE THE PEOPLE! SET THEM FREE!

I can't see one thing wrong with this on any account. This is what we want. We want them to displace the radicals. Obama would be the man in the aftermath. We are so close to changing the world. I don't want to miss this. I have been harping on this for over five years. This is our chance to remake things and hit Obama's reset button. We do well here and we do well everywhere. Iran is a bitch. They could be a friend.

[PM Thor]

I can't believe I am saying this here...but...

Snipe, you are an idealist about Iran.

That regime would be willing to burn the entire middle east before they gave up power. It will not be a handover of power, it won't be pretty, and I doubt that the Mullahs ever are willing to give up power anyway.

Let's ignore the massive anti-demonstrations that happened in the last day or two, then focus on the anti government movement. Look at the last 30 years, any groundswell movement that started with the people eventually got the backing of the military. Eastern block, Russia, on and on. There are many examples of where the military doesn't prop up and support the weakening government in place. I seriously doubt that the Iranian military will back this movement, even if it is valid, and how much we all wish it will. It's waning, even if it gets more violent and loud. (And even if it has traction, there are many, many hoops that the current leadership will jump through before they give up any power)

It's going to get ugly, and not much will change in Iran, no matter how much we hope it does. In fact, it might just get worse, because when the crackdown finishes, it will give those hard liners validation to go even more extreme. With every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, this too applies to politics.

I HATE dayton.

[Snipe]

Babylon & Beyond (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/01/iran-video-shows-gunman-opening-fire-on-demonstrators-who-fight-back.html)

Nice video at the link of the gunfire on the streets. Off the hook baby!