It's never to early for the NCAA Champion Vegas Lines [Archive]

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coasterville95

10-21-2009, 08:59 PM

Early this month, I was out in Vegas, and my sticky fingers got a hold of the brochure for NCAA Men's Basketball Champion futures:

The paper I have gives what betting opened at on 5/30/09 and what it was when I visited the Book (9/28/09)

First : Your Xavier Musketeers - opened at 45:1, we have been downgraded to 50:1

Around the A10:
St. Joes (That darned Hawk) - opened at 400:1 and still there.
Rhode Island "Rhody" - opened at 200:1 and steady
UMass (The Premature ones) - holding steady at 175:1
Temple (Is Christmas over YET?) holding steady at 150:1
Dayton (The Doomed Flyer) holding steady at 100:1
all others would be a part of the "Field" - which opened at 100:1 and has improved to 80:1

Of local interest:
Cincinnati - see "Field" bet above
Miami of Ohio - see "Field" bet above
Kentucky "We sold our souls to the Devil, I mean Coach Vacate" - opened 20:1, greatly improved to 4:1
Indiana "Thanks for the Players Coach Cell Phone" - 100:1
Louisville - opened at 13:2, has moved to 8:1
West Virginia - Thuggy's Boys - opened 30:1, improved to 25:1
Wright State - see "Field" bet above
Ohio "Beak Nose" State - 100:1

Teams we face:
Wake Forest - 30:1
LSU - 50:1 if you Gauex
Florida - opened 75:1, now 60:1
Kansas "Got screwed by Huggins" State - 100:1
Butler - 100:1
Marquette - 200:1 (Old Spice)
Creighton - 200:1 (Old Spice)
Alabama - 150:1 (Old Spice)
Baylor - 80:1 (Old Spice)
Iona - "Field" (Old Spice)
Florida St - 100:1 (Old Spice)
Michigan - opened 100:1 now 50:1 (Old Spice)

YSU, BGSU, Sacred Heart, Kent St - "Field"
Misc:
Arizona "Has some new coach, anybody know anything about the weasel?" - 75:1, now 50:1
Memphis - Got screwed by Coach Cal - opened 45:1, now 50:1
Gonzaga - 25:1
Minnesota : 100:1

muskiefan82

10-22-2009, 10:18 AM

xu95

10-22-2009, 12:36 PM

I can't believe that Xavier has better odds than Dayton. Aren't they the cream of the A10 crop this year?

xu95

GuyFawkes38

10-22-2009, 12:53 PM

It always suprises me in college basketball how much the name factor affects betting odds. That leads me to think that there's probably a lot of money to be made with college basketball betting.

Flyer1407

10-30-2009, 01:37 PM

I can't believe that Xavier has better odds than Dayton. Aren't they the cream of the A10 crop this year?

xu95

Butler is 100:1 and ranked 10th.

AdamtheFlyer

10-30-2009, 02:06 PM

I can't believe that Xavier has better odds than Dayton. Aren't they the cream of the A10 crop this year?

xu95

It's betting odds. They're counting on more bets for Xavier than Dayton, not on one team to be better than the other.

coasterville95

10-30-2009, 03:19 PM

Exactly right, they aren't a predictor on how likely a team is to win, but that will be one heavy factor in setting the odds.

Recall, at the end of the day the Book wants to ensure that no matter who wins, they still make money. They do that in part through the 10% Vig, and part by setting the odds such that no matter who wins the house can cover all the winners bets off of the losers bets. If there is more action on Xavier, that means the pool would have to be split more ways, so they have to reduce each person's split of the pie, which means the odds change. It actually gets more interesting than that becuase when you make a bet with a Book in that situation you lock in not only your choice and dollar amount, but also your line or odds. The Book's totalizator is constantly looking at all sides and readjusts the odds to new betters in an attempt to try to keep all sides even.

In this case - more bettors believe Xavier will win the game, than Dayton, therefore if Xavier wins they have to pay out more tickets than Dayton, therefore the payoff odds are lower for Xavier, despite Dayton's pre-season ranking and projected A10 title. (I just threw up in my mouth).